The Really Big One

[cpzilliacus]

Note: Site paywalled.  PM me if you cannot read this with a real e-mail address and I will arrange alternate access.

Hint, it's not southern California. It's northern California, Oregon, Washington and British Columbia.

The New Yorker: The Really Big One - An earthquake will destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest. The question is when.

When the 2011 earthquake and tsunami struck Tohoku, Japan, Chris Goldfinger was two hundred miles away, in the city of Kashiwa, at an international meeting on seismology. As the shaking started, everyone in the room began to laugh. Earthquakes are common in Japan–that one was the third of the week–and the participants were, after all, at a seismology conference. Then everyone in the room checked the time.

Seismologists know that how long an earthquake lasts is a decent proxy for its magnitude. The 1989 earthquake in Loma Prieta, California, which killed sixty-three people and caused six billion dollars' worth of damage, lasted about fifteen seconds and had a magnitude of 6.9. A thirty-second earthquake generally has a magnitude in the mid-sevens. A minute-long quake is in the high sevens, a two-minute quake has entered the eights, and a three-minute quake is in the high eights. By four minutes, an earthquake has hit magnitude 9.0.

When Goldfinger looked at his watch, it was quarter to three. The conference was wrapping up for the day. He was thinking about sushi. The speaker at the lectern was wondering if he should carry on with his talk. The earthquake was not particularly strong. Then it ticked past the sixty-second mark, making it longer than the others that week. The shaking intensified. The seats in the conference room were small plastic desks with wheels. Goldfinger, who is tall and solidly built, thought, No way am I crouching under one of those for cover. At a minute and a half, everyone in the room got up and went outside.

It was March. There was a chill in the air, and snow flurries, but no snow on the ground. Nor, from the feel of it, was there ground on the ground. The earth snapped and popped and rippled. It was, Goldfinger thought, like driving through rocky terrain in a vehicle with no shocks, if both the vehicle and the terrain were also on a raft in high seas. The quake passed the two-minute mark. The trees, still hung with the previous autumn's dead leaves, were making a strange rattling sound. The flagpole atop the building he and his colleagues had just vacated was whipping through an arc of forty degrees. The building itself was base-isolated, a seismic-safety technology in which the body of a structure rests on movable bearings rather than directly on its foundation. Goldfinger lurched over to take a look. The base was lurching, too, back and forth a foot at a time, digging a trench in the yard. He thought better of it, and lurched away. His watch swept past the three-minute mark and kept going.

Oh, shit, Goldfinger thought, although not in dread, at first: in amazement. For decades, seismologists had believed that Japan could not experience an earthquake stronger than magnitude 8.4. In 2005, however, at a conference in Hokudan, a Japanese geologist named Yasutaka Ikeda had argued that the nation should expect a magnitude 9.0 in the near future–with catastrophic consequences, because Japan's famous earthquake-and-tsunami preparedness, including the height of its sea walls, was based on incorrect science. The presentation was met with polite applause and thereafter largely ignored. Now, Goldfinger realized as the shaking hit the four-minute mark, the planet was proving the Japanese Cassandra right.

[DeaconG]

And it will be our luck that this fault will go off at the same time that the New Madrid fault decides to get freaky.

Seriously not good.

[SignGeek101]

Hopefully it doesn't happen when I'm there.

Anyways, folks in the northwest are not ready for this type of event. When it happens, there will be massive causalities unfortunately.

[cpzilliacus]

And it will be our luck that this fault will go off at the same time that the New Madrid fault decides to get freaky.

Seriously not good.

Last time, there was over a 100 year gap between the Cascadia quake (and resulting tsunami) and a series of New Madrid quakes.

How much money has been spent to harden transportation infrastructure in these places?  Probably not enough, especially in the Pacific Northwest.  I assert that the creaky bridge that carries I-5 over the Columbia River is especially vulnerable to a 9.0 quake, yet Portland's planners were much more interested in building light rail to southern Washington than they were in a more robust bridge.

[iBallasticwolf2]

And it will be our luck that this fault will go off at the same time that the New Madrid fault decides to get freaky.

Seriously not good.

Last time, there was over a 100 year gap between the Cascadia quake (and resulting tsunami) and a series of New Madrid quakes.

How much money has been spent to harden transportation infrastructure in these places?  Probably not enough, especially in the Pacific Northwest.  I assert that the creaky bridge that carries I-5 over the Columbia River is especially vulnerable to a 9.0 quake, yet Portland's planners were much more interested in building light rail to southern Washington than they were in a more robust bridge.

They should have just planned to make accomdations for future light rail instead of planning to actually make it which would be an entirely different project in itself.

[hotdogPi]

Isn't this just an example of the Gambler's Fallacy?

[jeffandnicole]

"The Big One" has been talked about for decades, and based on predictions, it should've happened 10 or 20 years ago. 

Technically, you can make anything, "Anything Proof".  But the cost in order to make it Anything Proof is astronomical, and even then, it probably isn't absolutely Anything Proof.  Just making everything 9.0 Earthquake Proof is a multi-trillion dollar venture.  And you're just hoping that when it does it, it hits in an area that make great strides to make everything 9.0 Earthquake Proof.

[cpzilliacus]

"The Big One" has been talked about for decades, and based on predictions, it should've happened 10 or 20 years ago. 

Technically, you can make anything, "Anything Proof".  But the cost in order to make it Anything Proof is astronomical, and even then, it probably isn't absolutely Anything Proof.  Just making everything 9.0 Earthquake Proof is a multi-trillion dollar venture.  And you're just hoping that when it does it, it hits in an area that make great strides to make everything 9.0 Earthquake Proof.

The geological record regarding massive Cascadia Subduction Zone quakes is now pretty clear. 

Fortunately, the Pacific Coast is relatively undeveloped for long sections of California, Oregon, Washington and British Columbia coasts, with little more than beaches. 

But the transportation infrastructure appears not to have been engineered to resist a 9.0 quake (case in point being the creaky bridge that carries I-5 over the Columbia River).

[nexus73]

This will be the biggest economic hit from a natural disaster of all time.  As for magnitude it should make the top three.  The coast from NorCal up to BC will be uninhabitable for the most part for decades due to the cost of rebuilding.  The I-5 corridor will see a lesser but still quite thorough level of destruction. 

For us amateur radio operators who are part of ARES/RACES (official emcomm), we do our part to train, gather gear and hope that a few of us survive in order to give the affected areas some sort of communications capability on VHF/UHF and on what most people would call the shortwave frequencies. Voice and digital modes are used.  We who are certified have passed various FEMA courses and a background check as well as doing training, simulated exercises and weekly radio nets. 

If this interests you, check your local county for an amateur radio group to get connected with so you can begin to learn enough to help out with the emcomm situation.  The more the merrier as who knows what will be left, who will be around and where we will be when The Big One hits.

Here is a link to an article from a PDX alternative newspaper five years ago.  It is still a very relevant read:

http://www.wweek.com/portland/article-11577-permalink.html


There will be no cellphone, landline, cable or internet service remaining.  Repeaters handling VHF/UHF radios will be brought down.  They are used by government agencies, commercial users and amateur radio operators.  Fiber optic cables will be broken in multiple places.  Broadcast radio antenna towers will tumble to the ground.  Unlike CB radio, which is a very limited radio service in so many areas including a small frequency allotment, amateur radio offers a massive spread of frequencies and modes as well as higher legal power limits to work with.  In an emergency an amateur radio operator can legally use any frequency they need to handle the situation. 

Passing the Technician and General test rates about as tough as passing a driver's license test for those with some radio, technological and scientific background.  You can find online various sites that will let you take the tests for practice at no cost.  Do them over and over until you can score 90% or better consistently, then find your local amateur group in order to discover the dates, times and places for exams held by amateurs certified to administer them.

After that get hooked up with the ARES/RACES or equivalent group.  They will show you how to take the FEMA courses online and what you will need to do for the background check.  Attend the meetings, do the exercises, acquire the gear and be prepared!

None of this is easy stuff that gets handed to you on a platter but with a modicum of effort and intelligence it is quite doable.  Why be left in the dark over what's happening when you can be in the middle of the communications that will be transpiring?

Rick 

[Rothman]

Cats and dogs living together -- mass hysteria!

[lordsutch]

Isn't this just an example of the Gambler's Fallacy?

Um, no. The Gambler's Fallacy would be "it's certain to happen in the next X years," not "there's a 1 in 3 chance it will happen in the next X years."

[realjd]

Isn't this just an example of the Gambler's Fallacy?

The gambler's fallacy is for events that are truly random. For earthquakes, since it's rock releasing pent-up pressure, it makes sense that the probability of occurrence would increase over time as the pressure on the rocks increases.

[cpzilliacus]

Isn't this just an example of the Gambler's Fallacy?

The gambler's fallacy is for events that are truly random. For earthquakes, since it's rock releasing pent-up pressure, it makes sense that the probability of occurrence would increase over time as the pressure on the rocks increases.

We have knowledge passed-down from Japanese history, as well as Native American oral histories, that tsunamis resulting from subduction zone quakes have happened on a regular basis for many years.  That's not gambling, even though we may not be able to forecast exactly when such a quake will take place.

[wphiii]

This article is the most horrifying thing I'll read all year, that's for sure. I was talking to my cousin who lives in Portland about it and she was saying that everyone there has been at least vaguely aware of the threat for a while but hopefully this article puts people on edge enough to get any sort of preparation system or improved infrastructure in place. Other than that, she was like "hopefully it just hits during a time when we're all at home together." The resigned nonchalance in her tone was pretty sobering.

[Stephane Dumas]

Will the areas in the more easternly areas (Spokane, Okanagan Valley, Tri-cities, Bend) could be badly damaged as well?


Still in the same area, there's Mount Rainier who could decide to blow like Mt. St. Helens and depending where the lava/mud/ash goes....Seattle could be hit.
http://www.pbs.org/wnet/savageplanet/01volcano/03/indexmid.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Me_s0b-w7FY

[nexus73]

If you are east of the Cascades you should not be affected.  The first range of earthquake destruction goes from the coast to the Coast Range.  That is the area where the ground can shift as much as 16 feet.  From the east side of the Coast Range to the Cascades is the second range of destruction.  That area will see magnitude 7.0+ and up to 7 feet of shifting ground.

In the Cascades you can expect slides to close the passes and Columbia Gorge.

Rick

[cpzilliacus]

This article is the most horrifying thing I'll read all year, that's for sure. I was talking to my cousin who lives in Portland about it and she was saying that everyone there has been at least vaguely aware of the threat for a while but hopefully this article puts people on edge enough to get any sort of preparation system or improved infrastructure in place. Other than that, she was like "hopefully it just hits during a time when we're all at home together." The resigned nonchalance in her tone was pretty sobering.

Several things that Portland could do include:

1. Hardening of their highway network bridges, and including specifically a new bridge to carry I-5 traffic (but not light rail) across the Columbia River.

2. Hardening of their electric transmission infrastructure.

3. Stop with the light rail fantasy (it likely won't work after a 9.0 quake anyway).

[Rothman]

A couple of years back, NYSDOT had a "Hardening of the Infrastructure" initiative.  It didn't last long and the title did lead to more than a few off-color jokes.  I'm surprised the Post didn't have a headline that read "DOT Says Bridges Need Viagara!"

[jakeroot]

"The Big One" has been talked about for decades, and based on predictions, it should've happened 10 or 20 years ago.

We know a lot more about it now than we did 10 or 20 years ago.

Technically, you can make anything, "Anything Proof".  But the cost in order to make it Anything Proof is astronomical, and even then, it probably isn't absolutely Anything Proof.  Just making everything 9.0 Earthquake Proof is a multi-trillion dollar venture.  And you're just hoping that when it does it, it hits in an area that make great strides to make everything 9.0 Earthquake Proof.

The best thing is to develop an early-warning system like they have in Japan. If we can get most people to a safe place before the quake or tsunami, I would be happy.

[iBallasticwolf2]

The best thing is to develop an early-warning system like they have in Japan. If we can get most people to a safe place before the quake or tsunami, I would be happy.

But earthquakes don't have alot of warning before they happen, or do they?

[jakeroot]

The best thing is to develop an early-warning system like they have in Japan. If we can get most people to a safe place before the quake or tsunami, I would be happy.

But earthquakes don't have alot of warning before they happen, or do they?

As stated in the article,

The first sign that the Cascadia earthquake has begun will be a compressional wave, radiating outward from the fault line. Compressional waves are fast-moving, high-frequency waves, audible to dogs and certain other animals but experienced by humans only as a sudden jolt. They are not very harmful, but they are potentially very useful, since they travel fast enough to be detected by sensors thirty to ninety seconds ahead of other seismic waves. That is enough time for earthquake early-warning systems, such as those in use throughout Japan, to automatically perform a variety of lifesaving functions: shutting down railways and power plants, opening elevators and firehouse doors, alerting hospitals to halt surgeries, and triggering alarms so that the general public can take cover

So, sort of yes. You still get that initial jolt, but the big rattle is still some time away. Enough time away to take action.

[iBallasticwolf2]

The best thing is to develop an early-warning system like they have in Japan. If we can get most people to a safe place before the quake or tsunami, I would be happy.

But earthquakes don't have alot of warning before they happen, or do they?

As stated in the article,

The first sign that the Cascadia earthquake has begun will be a compressional wave, radiating outward from the fault line. Compressional waves are fast-moving, high-frequency waves, audible to dogs and certain other animals but experienced by humans only as a sudden jolt. They are not very harmful, but they are potentially very useful, since they travel fast enough to be detected by sensors thirty to ninety seconds ahead of other seismic waves. That is enough time for earthquake early-warning systems, such as those in use throughout Japan, to automatically perform a variety of lifesaving functions: shutting down railways and power plants, opening elevators and firehouse doors, alerting hospitals to halt surgeries, and triggering alarms so that the general public can take cover

So, sort of yes. You still get that initial jolt, but the big rattle is still some time away. Enough time away to take action.

In that an early warning system could be extremely useful in saving lives in this earthquake.

[cpzilliacus]

In that an early warning system could be extremely useful in saving lives in this earthquake.

We would have to spend tax dollars (and quite a lot of them) to come up with an alerting system to run from Northern California up to the Washington/British Columbia border. 

The crowd in charge on Capitol Hill would deem that a "waste of money."

[jakeroot]

In that an early warning system could be extremely useful in saving lives in this earthquake.

We would have to spend tax dollars (and quite a lot of them) to come up with an alerting system to run from Northern California up to the Washington/British Columbia border. 

The crowd in charge on Capitol Hill would deem that a "waste of money."

The city of Puyallup, where I've lived off an on for the past 19 years, has an early-warning system (along with other neighboring suburbs) in the event Mount Rainier goes off (Puyallup is in the shadow of the mountain linked in the video above by Stephane Dumas). Mount Rainier will produce heavy lahars capable of wiping out everything in its path, so the local communities, Pierce County, and the State of Washington got together in the early 2000s to develop the early warning system to protect the valley denizens:

https://youtu.be/ZFE9eoij9L0

As for an early-warning system Cascadia-wide? Indeed, the chances of the monies flowing in are slim to none. But, this is proof that it can be done.

[Stephane Dumas]

As for an early-warning system Cascadia-wide? Indeed, the chances of the monies flowing in are slim to none. But, this is proof that it can be done.

Interesting, could a similar system might work for the New Madrid fault line area?

Also, I saw this blog post about nuclear reactors and waste sites along the west coast and their fate in case of earthquake. I hope we won't have another Fukushima. 
http://nuclear-news.net/2013/03/15/scientists-predict-earthquake-expected-anytime-on-us-west-coast-nuclear-reactors-and-waste-dumps-at-risk/