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At last, a window for I-11 in Oregon?

Started by Sub-Urbanite, May 26, 2016, 01:20:49 PM

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Sub-Urbanite

Here's the report: (link)

The report itself calls out US 97 as a freight alternative to I-5:

QuoteInvest in freight network alternatives: Invest in improved capacity and efficiency of rural highway corridors (Highway 97, etc.) that create freight network alternatives.

And the committee's co-chair says in the O part of that is because of earthquake resiliency!

"Product isn't going to go up I-5, it's going to go up 97," Kantor said. "Products you need to survive are going to be coming up and mobilizing in Central Oregon before it comes to the Valley."

He's right — all of the staging for the Cascadia megathrust quake is set to happen at the Redmond Airport and Fairgrounds.

So then the question becomes, what good is a 4-lane US 97 through Oregon if it doesn't connect to anything outside the megathrust zone? Not saying this puts I-11 in Oregon anywhere beyond a 15% chance of ever happening, but that's up a nudge from a week ago.


The Ghostbuster

I think it's far-fetched US 97 will become Interstate 11. Other than the corridors of Interstate 5 and 84, are there any other places in Oregon that would warrant a long-range Interstate Highway?

opspe

Building US 97 to full Interstate standards seems unlikely.  My guess is that they would just twin it between Klamath Falls and Madras, and maybe try to get Caltrans to chip in for the stretch from the border to I-5.  North of Madras, they might upgrade US 197, but that would require some pretty pricey bridge construction over the Deschutes, to bypass Maupin.

Max Rockatansky

Why not just start with a 4-lane expressway configuration?...yeah this doesn't need an Interstate.  I would imagine Caltrans would be game to chip in on the California side of things.  Yes there is a trucking industry but we're still talking about largely rural areas.  Personally I've never had much issue getting through US 97 in Oregon, I've always found the road to be adequate as is.

opspe

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2016, 10:35:11 PM
Why not just start with a 4-lane expressway configuration?...yeah this doesn't need an Interstate.  I would imagine Caltrans would be game to chip in on the California side of things.  Yes there is a trucking industry but we're still talking about largely rural areas.  Personally I've never had much issue getting through US 97 in Oregon, I've always found the road to be adequate as is.

It used to get pretty bad through Redmond before they bypassed it a decade or so ago.

kkt

I can see them adding more 4-lane stretches and passing lanes.  I can't see them applying to call it I-11.

Max Rockatansky

Quote from: opspe on May 27, 2016, 12:03:14 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2016, 10:35:11 PM
Why not just start with a 4-lane expressway configuration?...yeah this doesn't need an Interstate.  I would imagine Caltrans would be game to chip in on the California side of things.  Yes there is a trucking industry but we're still talking about largely rural areas.  Personally I've never had much issue getting through US 97 in Oregon, I've always found the road to be adequate as is.

It used to get pretty bad through Redmond before they bypassed it a decade or so ago.

And problem solved by the bypass, more of a natural progression given the population boom in the area over the last 30 years.  There are plenty of cities floating out there from the 25,000 something people to the 52,000 that you see in Bend without full freeways.  The growth of US 97 should start with expressway configurations and bypass routes of cities that are growing rather than going full Interstate.  I could see something like a US 101 from San Francisco to Eureka one day but gradually over time.  Personally I would like to see something along the lines of the Klamath Falls US 97 bypass with 65 MPH zones. 

opspe

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 27, 2016, 12:15:08 AM
Quote from: opspe on May 27, 2016, 12:03:14 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2016, 10:35:11 PM
Why not just start with a 4-lane expressway configuration?...yeah this doesn't need an Interstate.  I would imagine Caltrans would be game to chip in on the California side of things.  Yes there is a trucking industry but we're still talking about largely rural areas.  Personally I've never had much issue getting through US 97 in Oregon, I've always found the road to be adequate as is.

It used to get pretty bad through Redmond before they bypassed it a decade or so ago.

And problem solved by the bypass, more of a natural progression given the population boom in the area over the last 30 years.  There are plenty of cities floating out there from the 25,000 something people to the 52,000 that you see in Bend without full freeways.  The growth of US 97 should start with expressway configurations and bypass routes of cities that are growing rather than going full Interstate.  I could see something like a US 101 from San Francisco to Eureka one day but gradually over time.  Personally I would like to see something along the lines of the Klamath Falls US 97 bypass with 65 MPH zones.

Yeah, that's pretty much the ideal.

I remember when the Bend stretch of 97 opened, they made a big deal of it not being a freeway, but rather a parkway.  And when they were proposing the Rendmond bypass, there was a lot of opposition from local businesses, since it would route most traffic off the one-way couplet through downtown - typical story.

If it ever did get Interstate designation, I doubt it would be I-11; probably I-7 instead (assuming I-9 goes to California).  If there was ever an extension to I-11 past Vegas, it would almost certainly connect to I-580 in Carson City, which would put it too far east, not to mention hundreds of miles south.

jakeroot

Quote from: kkt on May 27, 2016, 12:05:53 AM
I can see them adding more 4-lane stretches and passing lanes.  I can't see them applying to call it I-11.

Maybe I'm being pessimistic, but, while I do see Washington and Oregon both dualling more roads in the future, I don't see either state applying for any interstate designations anytime soon, at least not on their own accords (a concerted effort by California, Oregon, and Washington to build the 97 into a freeway, some day in the future, would probably result in an interstate designation).

myosh_tino

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2016, 10:35:11 PM
I would imagine Caltrans would be game to chip in on the California side of things.

I wouldn't.

I have to believe that an interstate freeway in a part of the state that is that sparsely populated would be a very low priority.  Besides, how would you propose connecting the currently planned I-11 tp US 97?
Quote from: golden eagle
If I owned a dam and decided to donate it to charity, would I be giving a dam? I'm sure that might be a first because no one really gives a dam.

mcarling

I think that in the 2030s, after I-11 has been extended from Las Vegas to Reno, there will be serious consideration of extending I-11 further north past Susanville, to Klamath Falls and up the US97 corridor to Yakima.  I doubt it would be completed before about 2050.
US 97 should be 2x2 all the way from Yakima, WA to Klamath Falls, OR.

Max Rockatansky

#11
Quote from: myosh_tino on May 27, 2016, 02:33:53 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2016, 10:35:11 PM
I would imagine Caltrans would be game to chip in on the California side of things.

I wouldn't.

I have to believe that an interstate freeway in a part of the state that is that sparsely populated would be a very low priority.  Besides, how would you propose connecting the currently planned I-11 tp US 97?

I wouldn't either, I'm not talking about an Interstate or I-11.  I'm not even talking about a freeway, I'm talking a U.S. 101 style expressway or at least sections of US 97 with them.  On the California side there are already several passing lanes near the Mount Shasta overlook, hard to believe Caltrans wouldn't at least do a study near Dorris and to CA 161 on the state line if Oregon is looking at making gradual improvements to US 97 on their side..  If US 199 can get a wide expressway portion in California why wouldn't US 97?  There definitely doesn't need to be an Interstate running north/south in eastern Oregon, much less I-11 of all routes...

Hell hypothetically if there was ever a chance of an I-11 extension it would likely go to Reno and from there it would probably follow US 395 to Spokane.  But I cant envision a scenario where a route like that would be needed since it's basically just open unpopulated desert out there.  Hell nobody can even figure where the hell to terminate I-11 in Arizona much less where to put it in the Phoenix area.  But then again...who knows what three to five decades might bring?

mcarling

Quote from: myosh_tino on May 27, 2016, 02:33:53 AM
I have to believe that an interstate freeway in a part of the state that is that sparsely populated would be a very low priority.  Besides, how would you propose connecting the currently planned I-11 tp US 97?
Via Susanville.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 27, 2016, 09:25:48 AM
Hell hypothetically if there was ever a chance of an I-11 extension it would likely go to Reno and from there it would probably follow US 395 to Spokane.
What would be the point of an Interstate from Reno to Spokane?  Reno to Portland/Seattle/Vancouver seems to make vastly more sense.
US 97 should be 2x2 all the way from Yakima, WA to Klamath Falls, OR.

Max Rockatansky

#13
Quote from: mcarling on May 28, 2016, 01:01:25 AM
Quote from: myosh_tino on May 27, 2016, 02:33:53 AM
I have to believe that an interstate freeway in a part of the state that is that sparsely populated would be a very low priority.  Besides, how would you propose connecting the currently planned I-11 tp US 97?
Via Susanville.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 27, 2016, 09:25:48 AM
Hell hypothetically if there was ever a chance of an I-11 extension it would likely go to Reno and from there it would probably follow US 395 to Spokane.
What would be the point of an Interstate from Reno to Spokane?  Reno to Portland/Seattle/Vancouver seems to make vastly more sense.

Susanville and then where?...CA 139?  US 395 is at or being built to Interstate standards in both Spokane and in Reno.  Also don't forget that US 395 runs on parts of I-90, I-84 and I-82 already.  So if there is serious need for a CANMEX corridor in the far flung future why not make the border alignment more direct?  But that's not to say that I'm a total skeptic of I-11 expanding past Phoenix and Las Vegas anytime soon...maybe Reno one day but that's not to say US 95 is already completely adequate in that regard.  We're talking places like Esmeralda and Harney Counties being included in all this...to me that's FritzOwl level of insanity for a full Interstate upgrade. 

opspe

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 28, 2016, 01:17:25 AM
Quote from: mcarling on May 28, 2016, 01:01:25 AM
Quote from: myosh_tino on May 27, 2016, 02:33:53 AM
I have to believe that an interstate freeway in a part of the state that is that sparsely populated would be a very low priority.  Besides, how would you propose connecting the currently planned I-11 tp US 97?
Via Susanville.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 27, 2016, 09:25:48 AM
Hell hypothetically if there was ever a chance of an I-11 extension it would likely go to Reno and from there it would probably follow US 395 to Spokane.
What would be the point of an Interstate from Reno to Spokane?  Reno to Portland/Seattle/Vancouver seems to make vastly more sense.

Susanville and then where?...CA 139?  US 395 is at or being built to Interstate standards in both Spokane and in Reno.  Also don't forget that US 395 runs on parts of I-90, I-84 and I-82 already.  So if there is serious need for a CANMEX corridor in the far flung future why not make the border alignment more direct?  But that's not to say that I'm a total skeptic of I-11 expanding past Phoenix and Las Vegas anytime soon...maybe Reno one day but that's not to say US 95 is already completely adequate in that regard.  We're talking places like Esmeralda and Harney Counties being included in all this...to me that's FritzOwl level of insanity for a full Interstate upgrade.

There's also the issue of where to connect it on the Canadian side.  US 97/BC 97 is the clear choice.  But, I still think US 97 upgrades in Oregon would probably never link up with I-11.

If it was ever extended past Reno, I bet it would be along US 95 between Winnemucca and Caldwell/Boise.  That would be a direct connection from a major ag region to all the ports in California.

Max Rockatansky

Quote from: opspe on May 28, 2016, 01:41:57 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 28, 2016, 01:17:25 AM
Quote from: mcarling on May 28, 2016, 01:01:25 AM
Quote from: myosh_tino on May 27, 2016, 02:33:53 AM
I have to believe that an interstate freeway in a part of the state that is that sparsely populated would be a very low priority.  Besides, how would you propose connecting the currently planned I-11 tp US 97?
Via Susanville.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 27, 2016, 09:25:48 AM
Hell hypothetically if there was ever a chance of an I-11 extension it would likely go to Reno and from there it would probably follow US 395 to Spokane.
What would be the point of an Interstate from Reno to Spokane?  Reno to Portland/Seattle/Vancouver seems to make vastly more sense.

Susanville and then where?...CA 139?  US 395 is at or being built to Interstate standards in both Spokane and in Reno.  Also don't forget that US 395 runs on parts of I-90, I-84 and I-82 already.  So if there is serious need for a CANMEX corridor in the far flung future why not make the border alignment more direct?  But that's not to say that I'm a total skeptic of I-11 expanding past Phoenix and Las Vegas anytime soon...maybe Reno one day but that's not to say US 95 is already completely adequate in that regard.  We're talking places like Esmeralda and Harney Counties being included in all this...to me that's FritzOwl level of insanity for a full Interstate upgrade.

There's also the issue of where to connect it on the Canadian side.  US 97/BC 97 is the clear choice.  But, I still think US 97 upgrades in Oregon would probably never link up with I-11.

If it was ever extended past Reno, I bet it would be along US 95 between Winnemucca and Caldwell/Boise.  That would be a direct connection from a major ag region to all the ports in California.

In regards to I-11 there was talk during all the initial debating whether an extension to Reno on US 95 or Boise in proxy by Twin Falls on US 93 would be more warranted. Personally I would prefer the direct route on US 93 and I-84 if something like that ever came to pass.  I would love to see the traffic numbers vs US 93 and US 95 in Nevada, it always felt US 93 had more traffic in general but I could be wrong.

opspe

#16
Yeah, US 93 is probably a better option for I-11 heading north.

With the past upgrades to CA 14, CA 58, and US 395 in California, that would seem to be a more logical alignment for an interstate on the east side of the Sierras to Reno.  And that would be better for the hypothetical US 95 alignment to Boise, especially since ITD seems intent on widening US 95 to four lanes for its entire length.

roadfro

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 28, 2016, 09:55:52 AM
In regards to I-11 there was talk during all the initial debating whether an extension to Reno on US 95 or Boise in proxy by Twin Falls on US 93 would be more warranted. Personally I would prefer the direct route on US 93 and I-84 if something like that ever came to pass.  I would love to see the traffic numbers vs US 93 and US 95 in Nevada, it always felt US 93 had more traffic in general but I could be wrong.

I took a quick look at NDOT's 2014 Annual Traffic Report. I looked for a point well north of, but roughly equal distance from, downtown Las Vegas on US 93 & US 95. Here are some AADT numbers from NDOT's automatic traffic recorder stations (permanent, constant count locations).


~170 miles north of Las Vegas
*US 93, 1.0 miles south of SR 319 (~166 miles north of Las Vegas, between Caliente & Pioche): 1350
*US 95, 12.6 miles north of Nye/Esmeralda county line (~175 miles north of Las Vegas, south of Goldfield): 2050

*Note: This distance somewhat disadvantages counts along US 93, as it's along the portion of the route where through traffic heading north would likely take the SR 318-US 6 route to Ely. This was the only distance I could quickly find using ATR stations that was comparable distance from Las Vegas on both routes.


Neither route is particularly Interstate worthy with these traffic numbers. By comparison, a station on I-80 roughly near the midpoint of its trek through Nevada (exit 212) has an AADT of 7000.
Roadfro - AARoads Pacific Southwest moderator since 2010, Nevada roadgeek since 1983.

Max Rockatansky

Quote from: roadfro on May 28, 2016, 12:47:35 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 28, 2016, 09:55:52 AM
In regards to I-11 there was talk during all the initial debating whether an extension to Reno on US 95 or Boise in proxy by Twin Falls on US 93 would be more warranted. Personally I would prefer the direct route on US 93 and I-84 if something like that ever came to pass.  I would love to see the traffic numbers vs US 93 and US 95 in Nevada, it always felt US 93 had more traffic in general but I could be wrong.

I took a quick look at NDOT's 2014 Annual Traffic Report. I looked for a point well north of, but roughly equal distance from, downtown Las Vegas on US 93 & US 95. Here are some AADT numbers from NDOT's automatic traffic recorder stations (permanent, constant count locations).


~170 miles north of Las Vegas
*US 93, 1.0 miles south of SR 319 (~166 miles north of Las Vegas, between Caliente & Pioche): 1350
*US 95, 12.6 miles north of Nye/Esmeralda county line (~175 miles north of Las Vegas, south of Goldfield): 2050

*Note: This distance somewhat disadvantages counts along US 93, as it's along the portion of the route where through traffic heading north would likely take the SR 318-US 6 route to Ely. This was the only distance I could quickly find using ATR stations that was comparable distance from Las Vegas on both routes.


Neither route is particularly Interstate worthy with these traffic numbers. By comparison, a station on I-80 roughly near the midpoint of its trek through Nevada (exit 212) has an AADT of 7000.

Oh I agree, neither one of them I could see being anything but a 2-lane route anytime in the near future.  I actually find all US 95, US 6, US 93 and US 50 all through central Nevada to be extremely comfortable roads that have no congestion.  Basically almost everything out in the boons usually 70 MPH anyways which makes passing extremely easy.  I was just rolling through a couple months back heading down from Carson to Death Valley and didn't see another car heading south with me between Hawthorne and Tonopah.  But for continuity sake...if I had an say in it would prefer I-11 just end at I-15 north of downtown Vegas or follow US 93.  Basically those traffic counts makes things like FritzOwl suggesting Interstates on US 50 even more laughable...because I know it's far less than 93 and 95.   

kkt

Good to have some numbers.  However for either route to warrant an interstate, the situation would have to change so drastically it would be hard to predict which would be the busier route.

roadfro

^ I can potentially see modest increases on the US 95 route as the Tahoe Reno Industrial Center continues to build out. That is where Tesla is building their factory. USA Parkway (SR 439) will connect to US 50 a short distance from US 95 Alt in Silver Springs, and freight shipments heading southward would take this to US 95 and likely pass through Las Vegas.
Roadfro - AARoads Pacific Southwest moderator since 2010, Nevada roadgeek since 1983.

mcarling

The US 93 route is no longer under consideration.  The Fixing America's Surface Transportation (FAST) Act adopted by Congress in December 2015 designated that I-11 would go to I-80 near Reno.
http://www.azdot.gov/media/News/news-release/2015/12/04/interstate-11-receives-designation-in-federal-transportation-funding-bill
US 97 should be 2x2 all the way from Yakima, WA to Klamath Falls, OR.

Max Rockatansky

Quote from: mcarling on May 29, 2016, 07:54:09 AM
The US 93 route is no longer under consideration.  The Fixing America's Surface Transportation (FAST) Act adopted by Congress in December 2015 designated that I-11 would go to I-80 near Reno.
http://www.azdot.gov/media/News/news-release/2015/12/04/interstate-11-receives-designation-in-federal-transportation-funding-bill

Interesting they are very specific "through Reno to I-80."  That kind makes me assume that I-11 is going to hook up with US 395/I-580 near Carson by the way they worded that document.  I suppose it could take a north east turn off US 95 along US 95A from the Walker Reservation and bypass Yerington completely with a direct line towards Dayton.

roadfro

#23
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 29, 2016, 09:53:36 AM
Quote from: mcarling on May 29, 2016, 07:54:09 AM
The US 93 route is no longer under consideration.  The Fixing America's Surface Transportation (FAST) Act adopted by Congress in December 2015 designated that I-11 would go to I-80 near Reno.
http://www.azdot.gov/media/News/news-release/2015/12/04/interstate-11-receives-designation-in-federal-transportation-funding-bill

Interesting they are very specific "through Reno to I-80."  That kind makes me assume that I-11 is going to hook up with US 395/I-580 near Carson by the way they worded that document.  I suppose it could take a north east turn off US 95 along US 95A from the Walker Reservation and bypass Yerington completely with a direct line towards Dayton.
That would be a northwest turn off US 95.

I think this could be the general trend of the route. This would be getting the route close to the USA Parkway area I mentioned earlier.
Roadfro - AARoads Pacific Southwest moderator since 2010, Nevada roadgeek since 1983.

Max Rockatansky

Quote from: roadfro on May 30, 2016, 10:22:01 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 29, 2016, 09:53:36 AM
Quote from: mcarling on May 29, 2016, 07:54:09 AM
The US 93 route is no longer under consideration.  The Fixing America's Surface Transportation (FAST) Act adopted by Congress in December 2015 designated that I-11 would go to I-80 near Reno.
http://www.azdot.gov/media/News/news-release/2015/12/04/interstate-11-receives-designation-in-federal-transportation-funding-bill

Interesting they are very specific "through Reno to I-80."  That kind makes me assume that I-11 is going to hook up with US 395/I-580 near Carson by the way they worded that document.  I suppose it could take a north east turn off US 95 along US 95A from the Walker Reservation and bypass Yerington completely with a direct line towards Dayton.
That would be a northwest turn off US 95.

I think this could be the general trend of the route. This would be getting the route close to the USA Parkway area I mentioned earlier.

If that's the goal to reach USA Parkway and the DCs then US 50A out of Fallon to I-80 is a better bet.  I'm actually surprised that on the Arizona side there is such a huge push to put I-11 west of the White Tanks when the 303 just north of I-10 already has a ton of DC in place and being built.  It always seemed like a waste to completely bypass the Phoenix area entirely for barren desert when US 50 north of Surprise is really all that would have to be upgraded.



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