The UK votes to leave the EU

[US 41]

So I guess the UK is now officially a true sovereign country. If I lived in the UK I would have also voted for the "Leave" option myself. What do you all think about the UK's exit from the EU?

[empirestate]

It may give Great Britain an international land border, if pro-EU Scotland rekindles its referendum process as a result.

[bandit957]

I feel pretty good about this, because the EU kept taking it upon itself to write most of the member nations' laws.

[english si]

As someone who voted Leave, I'm glad. I've been smeared as a warmongering, selfish person who hates immigrants, yet I voted Leave to not be like that and the country of my birth and residence now gets to show that we aren't what the other side has demonized us as.

The Remain side will continue to undermine the financial markets with their scaremongering. And I've just heard some twat talk about border controls between the UK and Ireland - something no one wants and is simply stoking hatred, bigotry and fear (edit - and the Shadow Defence Secretary :bash:). The Northern Ireland Secretary spoke to the Irish ambassador and the Irish Government, and they have no plans (though the Irish Government made some public murmurings about bringing back The Troubles as part of #ProjectFear).

And now #ProjectFear in the form of a BBC reporter is talking about the possibility that the UK would forceably deport Poles - that's a crime against humanity (so it's also #ProjectSmear) and no one has suggested it.

The biggest problem is the the Leave camp have no plan as they (rightly) pointed out that the referendum is about In or Out, not what our newly sovereign nation should decide Out looks like, but the Government seem to also not have a plan, despite Leave saying "you were elected to Govern, this vote is to tell you one small thing". This uncertainty needs to be settled fairly quickly, but it won't be - not least as there's a need to bring the other side in.

I've genuinely been appalled by the responses from Remainiacs to my desire to stop giving the EU member-states and their citizens special treatment just because they are geographically near. Scratch the surface and the Little Europeanism gives off it's disgusting odor. I raised the question of why Belgian immigrants get an open door, whereas Bangladeshis get forced to jump through ever-smaller hoops and got back responses that basically made it clear that how dare I suggest these Bangladeshis get the same treatment as Belgians (whether their bigotry towards Bangladeshi was due to them being Muslim, non-white or simply non-European - I didn't ask, though it seemed odd to demand western values from Bangladeshis when there's a European branch of ISIS in Molenbeek that has carried out a couple of attacks. After that I use Austrians and Australians to try and avoid the race and creed issues). Brexit is a victory for love over bigotry.

The guy who detoxified the Tory party and tried to make it not the nasty party came out for it, calling supporting leaving the EU. He's totally right, and the odd thing where Scottish sovereignty is a 'right on' issue, but Brexit is seen as so regressive and abhorrent that when a Remain-supporting MP was brutally murdered it could be pinned on the entire Leave side, which even if you believed the member of the fascist party over the eyewitnesses that the guy shouted the slogan of an anti-immigrant hate group (as so many 'anti-fascists' did), is completely and utter bigoted ad hominem.

The few Remainers who supported the EU, rather than saw it as the lesser of two evils and in desperate need of reform (and President Junker, tone deaf said that reform wasn't an option), were sidelined (mostly as the idea of joining the Euro would lose Remain votes). The Remain campaign was therefore mostly negative - talking down Britain, it's electorate and especially Leave voters.

As much as I disagree politically with the Labour party - if it was 52-48 the other way round, then they would have been electoral toast in the next General Election, with UKIP hoovering up (and they got a lot nastier when they went from Libertarian to Populist) and that would have been tragic. The working class Labour heartlands were almost all for Leave, and UKIP would have enhanced their decent 2015 showing. A Leave result has pretty much ending Nigel Farage's career - we've made his elected position as an MEP redundant, but the rest is gone too.

So here's the wider world that we weakened ties with in '73 to go all in with Europe - may we build on ties that we can make now we've voted to abolish the walls (esp trade rules) that separate us. And Europe - we're not seeking to leave you, just the Political Union. I'm glad we don't have to apologize to Canada, Australia, India, etc for yet again choosing the countries that are close by over the countries that are our family.

PS: for those worrying that this shows that Drumpf can do it, it doesn't - had Farage been the sole face of the Leave camp, you'd be looking at 60s vs 30s to Remain, despite a horrendously negative campaign from Remain.

[english si]

It may give Great Britain an international land border, if pro-EU Scotland rekindles its referendum process as a result.

They are pushing for it, but the strong showing for the UK in '14 and the EU yesterday suggest that Scots aren't convinced by sovereignty arguments enough to deal with economic risks of leaving political unions - sadly my avatar is highly unlikely to happen.

There's also the issues of whether Scotland could grab EU membership should it leave the UK and what that would look like:
1) the plan was that Scotland would be a new EU member, not a successor state to the UK when the UK hadn't voted to Leave. The likelihood that EU membership for iScotland means the Euro, Schengen and other things they really don't want.
2) All 27 other countries would have to approve iScotland's membership. Spain will veto it due to Calatan/Basque issues.
3) Scotland would have voted to leave a political union off the back of a nationalistic surge - that's the EU equivalent of sedition, that takes a few years to be forgiven.

[Truvelo]

I think a more realistic proposition would be the unity of Ireland. Being as a clear majority in the north voted remain and strong comments from Sinn Féin for a referendum on joining the Republic I see this is more likely than an independent Scotland.

The last Scottish referendum took place before the fall in oil prices. I don't see another one being successful in light of this.

[english si]

I think a more realistic proposition would be the unity of Ireland. Being as a clear majority in the north voted remain and strong comments from Sinn Féin for a referendum on joining the Republic I see this is more likely than an independent Scotland.

Yes, though when the next PM (starting October) solves the 'border problem' that doesn't exist other than in attempts to get NI to vote Remain before the vote, and now to push for a referendum (and a victory) on becoming part of Ireland, the desire to unite will reduce. I'd imagine that referendum would be more divisive than this one too.


Gibraltar is a interesting one - there's no reason why it can't keep the status quo of being in the Customs Union, only without the representation in Brussels that they fought hard for - it's the Andorra/Monaco/San Marino/Vatican option. Spain has been fairly restrained and merely proposed joint sovereignty, rather than sent gunboats to 'liberate' Gibraltar. In the unlikely event they go for that, then job done - represented in the Commission by the Spanish commissioner and can vote as part of the Andulucia region for the EU Parliament. If they want the representation, but don't want it to be Spanish, then a deal with Malta looks a good match: English-speaking, small (and over-represented) and sort of geographically near.

[kphoger]

It may give Great Britain an international land border, if pro-EU Scotland rekindles its referendum process as a result.

Depending on how you define "nation", it already contains one, of course...

[hotdogPi]

It may give Great Britain an international land border, if pro-EU Scotland rekindles its referendum process as a result.

Depending on how you define "nation", it already contains one, of course...

Northern Ireland is not part of Great Britain. (It is part of the UK.)

[SP Cook]

The EU as origninal conceived, which was just doing away to tariffs (which is to say cutting taxes, always a good thing) and allowing free movement of goods around Europe, with one set of health/packaging/safety rules was a great idea.  That is what the UK signed up for back in 73.

The current EU with this "ever closer union" crapola is rediculious.  If the EU had stuck to its original vision it would have lasted for centuries.  By this disasterous over-reach it has spurend the UK, to be followed by others IMHO, to resume their rightful place as soverign countries. 

[Brandon]

I've genuinely been appalled by the responses from Remainiacs to my desire to stop giving the EU member-states and their citizens special treatment just because they are geographically near. Scratch the surface and the Little Europeanism gives off it's disgusting odor. I raised the question of why Belgian immigrants get an open door, whereas Bangladeshis get forced to jump through ever-smaller hoops and got back responses that basically made it clear that how dare I suggest these Bangladeshis get the same treatment as Belgians (whether their bigotry towards Bangladeshi was due to them being Muslim, non-white or simply non-European - I didn't ask, though it seemed odd to demand western values from Bangladeshis when there's a European branch of ISIS in Molenbeek that has carried out a couple of attacks. After that I use Austrians and Australians to try and avoid the race and creed issues). Brexit is a victory for love over bigotry.

Judging from this, and if others in the UK felt the same way, I'd say it boils down to a contest between the Commonwealth and the EU.  I would anticipate closer ties between the UK and the Commonwealth post Brexit.

[Desert Man]

The UK leaves the EU and now Greece wants to leave next...there goes the neighborhood. I'm sure the Turks and Russians aren't welcomed, because the EU is an exclusive club to join, an alliance of peace and getting along. The Eurozone crisis along with a strong currency: the British Pound (in Scotland, they use RBS not Bank of England pounds), heightened risk of terrorism from high rates of refugee migration (esp. in Germany) and demands or concerns of wanting "small government" is what made over half of British voters vote their way out of the EU.

[hbelkins]

Glad to see the Brits strike a blow for national sovereignty. And also loved seeing Obama get poked in the eye, again, on the international stage. He opposed Brexit and he opposed Netanyahu's re-election in Israel. In both instances he got rebuked.

[nexus73]

Nationalism is on the rise!  Sweden, Poland and Greece were mentioned as candidates for a Leave on CNN last night.  Trump is the very essence of nationalism as well.  Now those of us who are opposed to the globalists have the winds in our favor for a change.

Rick

[Brandon]

Nationalism is on the rise!  Sweden, Poland and Greece were mentioned as candidates for a Leave on CNN last night. 

I could see Sweden and Denmark making for the exit as well.  Denmark, like the UK, has the monetary union opt out.  Sweden does not, but has dragged its feet for so long regarding it.  Not so sure about Poland.  They do get more from the EU than they pay in.  As for Greece, who knows.

[empirestate]

It may give Great Britain an international land border, if pro-EU Scotland rekindles its referendum process as a result.

Depending on how you define "nation", it already contains one, of course...

Northern Ireland is not part of Great Britain. (It is part of the UK.)

No, but Scotland is. I think he meant that some definitions of "nation" could classify Scotland and England each as a nation.

[english si]

The EU as origninal conceived, which was just doing away to tariffs (which is to say cutting taxes, always a good thing) and allowing free movement of goods around Europe, with one set of health/packaging/safety rules was a great idea.  That is what the UK signed up for back in 73.

No, that's the EFTA that the UK had in '72. the EEC in '73 wasn't much different but was a bit more than that and it did mean reducing our ties with the Commonwealth to get in.

Judging from this, and if others in the UK felt the same way, I'd say it boils down to a contest between the Commonwealth and the EU.

Why does it have to be a contest?

I would anticipate closer ties between the UK and the Commonwealth post Brexit.

Oh, absolutely. We're now able to start talks with Australia that the EU stalled due to Italian tomato growers.

And also loved seeing Obama get poked in the eye, again, on the international stage.

Polling shows that his intervention gave Leave a boost in direct response. TBF to Obama, he just reiterated the long standing US State Department position that the UK needs to be in the EU to be their man on the inside - which (while the UK didn't want these false motives attributed to us) got UK membership vetoed in the 60s by deGaulle and has meant that in later generations there's been 'Anglo-Saxon'-scepticism in the EEC and EU and has mostly been an unwelcome weakening of our influence in Brussels.

Now those of us who are opposed to the globalists have the winds in our favor for a change.

Err, a lot of people voted Leave for globalism (inc me) rather than insular Little Europeanism - eg, tweets like this were common: https://twitter.com/beleaveuk/status/745692867079790592 https://twitter.com/PrescottBeth/status/746074680365293568 https://twitter.com/KingCapewell/status/746075044665790467 https://twitter.com/RickyLeeCooke/status/744862074963173376 https://twitter.com/RogTallbloke/status/745818092668862464
and all the official campaign big wigs have been talking about improved links with non-EU countries, both before and afterwards. Here's BoGo for instance, or Gisela Stuart this morning when the gang finally got in front of cameras (and the cameras could then stop looking to an exhausted, and probably drunk, Farage, for Leave comment): "We must continue to be outward looking and forward looking."

I could see Sweden and Denmark making for the exit as well.

It's a case of what sort of deal does the UK get. Vote Leave are over-optimisitically working on the assumption that it would be better than EFTA and you'd see Sweden and Denmark move out to have a deal like that, and Iceland and Norway move in.

Not so sure about Poland.

They are for the concept as-is, but not the Euro or the federal state. They are for the single EU army, due to the borders either side of their Lithuanian border, though not at the expense of NATO, which other states do want. They are EU-skeptic, but not yet skeptic enough to leave.

They do get more from the EU than they pay in.

But so does Cornwall, which voted Leave. Of course, Cornwall gets more in as its fishing industry was almost killed off by the EU - leaving a poor area needing to recover from that, and it's a region and so can badger Westminster for replacement funds.

As for Greece, who knows.

I'm not sure Greece has the sovereign capability to end its captivity to the ECB.

Czexit and even Nexit have been mooted with an assumption that they could get out, but I think even Denmark or Sweden isn't that likely in the foreseeable future.

[US 41]

Glad to see the Brits strike a blow for national sovereignty. And also loved seeing Obama get poked in the eye, again, on the international stage. He opposed Brexit and he opposed Netanyahu's re-election in Israel. In both instances he got rebuked.

+1

As far as other countries leaving the EU, I'd put Hungary as the most likely to do so next. They've already been building fences around their country to keep refugees out. I don't think their relations with the EU are too strong at this point.

[kphoger]

It may give Great Britain an international land border, if pro-EU Scotland rekindles its referendum process as a result.

Depending on how you define "nation", it already contains one, of course...

Northern Ireland is not part of Great Britain. (It is part of the UK.)

No, but Scotland is. I think he meant that some definitions of "nation" could classify Scotland and England each as a nation.

That's precisely what I meant.  I had typed a snarky correction to the idea that Great Britain could have an international land border due to its being an island.  Then, right before hitting "Post", I realized that might not have been what you intended by your post, so I changed the content of my reply.  Oh, well...

[US71]

Glad to see the Brits strike a blow for national sovereignty. And also loved seeing Obama get poked in the eye, again, on the international stage. He opposed Brexit and he opposed Netanyahu's re-election in Israel. In both instances he got rebuked.

I've never understood the USA giving Nutty-yahoo bombs to kill people. Why doesn't he use his OWN money?

[Avalanchez71]

Glad to see the Brits strike a blow for national sovereignty. And also loved seeing Obama get poked in the eye, again, on the international stage. He opposed Brexit and he opposed Netanyahu's re-election in Israel. In both instances he got rebuked.

+1

As far as other countries leaving the EU, I'd put Hungary as the most likely to do so next. They've already been building fences around their country to keep refugees out. I don't think their relations with the EU are too strong at this point.

Which border?  Can you see them from GSV?

[AlexandriaVA]

Pretty sure that Central and Eastern European member states want to stay. They're still recovering from the post-Soviet era and want access to western European capital investment.

[mtantillo]

Switzerland and Norway seem to be doing just fine outside the EU...I'm sure the UK will manage just fine, despite the initial shock to world markets.

Meanwhile, I don't think the UK will get everything they want. They want to restrict immigration from the EU to the UK, but I bet they still want the right to move to the EU to retire. They don't want to be part of the EU common market, but probably want multinational firms to keep their EU HQ in London. They want to restrict products manufactured according to draconian EU laws from coming into the country, but want to bring back 50 bottles of booze from a day trip to France. There are many citizens who will not want to entirely give up their access to Europe, and that access works both ways.

I bet that a happy medium will be found, where limited access to the European common market is preserved for UK Citizens/businesses in return for controlled, favored status in the UK (i.e. freedom of movement but with strict quotas). Perhaps more for some countries than others. For example, the UK may wish to strike deals with individual EU states, since the large immigration numbers seem to be limited to certain countries (Romania, Poland). In otherwords, they have a lot more to gain by restricting immigration from Poland than from Luxembourg. In exchange for tightening immigration from newer EU countries, they could loosen rules for other non-EU countries with favored status, such as Commonwealth Countries, the U.S. Special Relationship, etc.

At the end of the day, I don't blame the UK for leaving the EU. They signed up for a very different organization many decades ago, an organization that has drastically increased in size and scope in those decades. I personally don't think its a good idea for a country to give up elements of its sovereignty to a super-national body, and after incrementally doing so over a long period of time, the UK voters decided that it was too much. I wish they would have stayed in the EU and tried to fix its problems rather than abandoning it, but that's been tried and hasn't really worked, so eventually, people get impatient and want to try something new. Its no different than Americans wanting something drastically new with Trump and Sanders.

[AlexandriaVA]

Switzerland and Norway seem to be doing just fine outside the EU...I'm sure the UK will manage just fine, despite the initial shock to world markets.

Meanwhile, I don't think the UK will get everything they want. They want to restrict immigration from the EU to the UK, but I bet they still want the right to move to the EU to retire. They don't want to be part of the EU common market, but probably want multinational firms to keep their EU HQ in London. They want to restrict products manufactured according to draconian EU laws from coming into the country, but want to bring back 50 bottles of booze from a day trip to France. There are many citizens who will not want to entirely give up their access to Europe, and that access works both ways.

I bet that a happy medium will be found, where limited access to the European common market is preserved for UK Citizens/businesses in return for controlled, favored status in the UK (i.e. freedom of movement but with strict quotas). Perhaps more for some countries than others. For example, the UK may wish to strike deals with individual EU states, since the large immigration numbers seem to be limited to certain countries (Romania, Poland). In otherwords, they have a lot more to gain by restricting immigration from Poland than from Luxembourg. In exchange for tightening immigration from newer EU countries, they could loosen rules for other non-EU countries with favored status, such as Commonwealth Countries, the U.S. Special Relationship, etc.

At the end of the day, I don't blame the UK for leaving the EU. They signed up for a very different organization many decades ago, an organization that has drastically increased in size and scope in those decades. I personally don't think its a good idea for a country to give up elements of its sovereignty to a super-national body, and after incrementally doing so over a long period of time, the UK voters decided that it was too much. I wish they would have stayed in the EU and tried to fix its problems rather than abandoning it, but that's been tried and hasn't really worked, so eventually, people get impatient and want to try something new. Its no different than Americans wanting something drastically new with Trump and Sanders.

Don't count on it. The whole point of the EU is the single body of law (the 'acquis'), not a 28 (soon 27) different legal codes covering the same things.

[US 41]

Glad to see the Brits strike a blow for national sovereignty. And also loved seeing Obama get poked in the eye, again, on the international stage. He opposed Brexit and he opposed Netanyahu's re-election in Israel. In both instances he got rebuked.

+1

As far as other countries leaving the EU, I'd put Hungary as the most likely to do so next. They've already been building fences around their country to keep refugees out. I don't think their relations with the EU are too strong at this point.

Which border?  Can you see them from GSV?

They recently built one with Croatia, Serbia, and I think Romania as well to stop the flow of Syrian refugees. The fences are very new so I doubt they're on GSV yet.