Millennials Don't Drive--And Here's Why They Aren't Likely To Start Anytime Soon

[MisterSG1]

The Stage 2 restrictions on NYC seem quite harsh. What we call a G2 in Ontario is basically the same as a full license except you can't have more than 1 passenger between midnight and 5 am. Other than that time restriction you are allowed to go anywhere. In case you were wondering, the time between stage 1 and 2 is 8 months if you do a drivers education course or 12 months if you don't.

As for G1, this is right from their site about freeways which is something that made me think:

"You must not drive on 400-series highways with a posted speed limit over 80km/h. Also, you must not drive on certain high-speed roads including the Queen Elizabeth Way, Don Valley Parkway and the Gardiner Expressway in the Greater Toronto Area, the E.C. Row Expressway in Windsor and the Conestoga Parkway in Kitchener-Waterloo. However, if your accompanying driver is a driving instructor, you may drive on any road."

So MTO, does that mean a G1 driver can use the Linc and Red Hill Valley Parkway in Hamilton? How about Highway 11, which alternates between a RIRO and freeway up to North Bay. Or how about that new freeway portion of Hwy 69 south of Sudbury, remember folks it's not a 400 series highway yet. You also mentioned the Conestoga Parkway, but what about the Hwy 8 bypass that connects the 401 to King Street/Conestoga Parkway?


But vdeane, the restrictions in NY State do actually seem worse in my opinion. In Ontario, no matter what your age, you have to go through the GDL procedure, is there an upper age limit to GDL in NY?

[TheHighwayMan3561]

In Minnesota 18 is the upper GDL limit. I actually didn't get my license until after I turned 18 and it was a standard full-privilege license.

Instead of operating strictly by age, some privileges increase after set amounts of time on a Minnesota GDL. For the first six months on a GDL regardless of when you get it you can only have one non-family passenger under 20 years of age in your car, and after that six months it increases to three non-family members. After the year of passenger restrictions, those restrictions lift entirely. The initial night driving restrictions, which are otherwise similar to NY's also lift after the first six months.

[vdeane]

Everything NY is by age.  "Limited junior licence" (the one where one can't drive except to work/school) is for people who manage to drive the required hours and pass the road test while still 16.  Those who pass the test at 17 and haven't had driver's ed (at least when I got my licence... that loophole may have been eliminated now) get a "junior licence" (with the other restrictions mentioned), and everyone 18 or over or who has driver's ed at 17 gets an unrestricted licence.  The NYC-specific restrictions are permit only; the rest are statewide.  I believe other states have similar restrictions.

[SD Mapman]

I believe other states have similar restrictions.

Um, South Dakota says hi.

I started legally driving at 14; we get our unrestricted licenses at 16, and everyone (at least everyone I knew) upgraded as soon as they could.

[GCrites]

Feeling old since the regulations in Ohio have changed so much since I started driving that I don't know what they are anymore.

My buddy and I got our driver's ed teacher fired so it took us longer to get our licenses that we had liked. It took them a while to find a replacement.

[Duke87]

Yeah, I'm not in reasonable shape.  The idea of hauling four bags of groceries to/from the bus stop does NOT sound like fun for me.  And my flats tend to irritate my toes and ankle if I walk too much in them.

If your shoes cause irritation when you walk in them too much, then wear more comfortable shoes when you expect to be doing a lot of walking. It's not unheard of in NYC to commute in sneakers and then change into nicer shoes when you get to work.

It does, however, require being in a mindset where you are willing to walk. And as for being in shape, if you walk places regularly, you will be in the necessary shape. If nothing else it's good for your health.

Indeed, I feel a need to go outside and walk somewhere on a daily basis or I feel blech from the lack of physical activity. If I don't have a place I need to walk to, I'll walk around the block.

[slorydn1]

I got my permit at 16 in Illinos in 1986, and I was allowed to drive with any licensed driver in the front seat, regardless of age. My little brother got his permit at 16 here in North Carolina in 1992, and the only additional restriction was that the licensed right seater had to be and adult (18 or older).

In both cases once we passed the test and got our actual licenses we could drive anywhere, at anytime, with whomever we wanted to be with in the car.

My kids have had it rough with all the license restrictions, only a parent or legal guardian can accompany them while the learn to drive now, and they have to show proof of insurance before they can even get their restricted license, which holds a lot of kids back because parents can't afford the hit their insurance takes to have them added as a driver. What we had to do was to buy our older kids a beater, and have them obtain their own insurance (which meant getting a job before they were even able to drive to it) to basically pay just for the insurance-they rarely made enough to pay any more than that-we ended up footing the bill for gas/repairs etc until they got out on their own. Part of the problem is that for us as a family, my wife and I combined make less than just my dad did when I was the same age as my kids. My dad was clearing $100k a year in the 80's and we are making right about $70k a year combined now (adjusting for inflation that probably means we are making less than half than he did).

My youngest has it a little easier, his grandma doesn't drive much anymore so she has basically given him her Santa Fe (she still owns it though) and she decided to put him on her insurance (it really hasn't gone up that much which is weird) and we pay the difference on her car only. It would have cost three arms and four legs to put him on our Mustangs, and he doesn't seem to be able to drive stick anyway so we are pretty lucky there lol.

Which brings us to another interesting point to the actual topic. Much like my little brother and I (and my wife too) my older two kids, born in 1990 and 1992, were going crazy to be able to drive at their earliest opportunity. My youngest, born in 1999, doesn't really seem to be in much of a hurry to complete his 50 hrs of required driving (10 of which must be at night) before he can get his restricted license. His best friend, born the same year doesn't even want to get his permit-he much prefers that his parents chauffeur him around everywhere. It's going to suck to be him in a few years when he turns 18 and his mom sends him packing off to college with no way to get around, lol. My youngest wants to folllow his brothers into the military (though he wants to be a Marine, God bless him) so he'll probably want his full drivers license before he goes to boot camp (he's a sophomore now so that's a couple of years off).

[jeffandnicole]

Which brings us to another interesting point to the actual topic. Much like my little brother and I (and my wife too) my older two kids, born in 1990 and 1992, were going crazy to be able to drive at their earliest opportunity. My youngest, born in 1999, doesn't really seem to be in much of a hurry to complete his 50 hrs of required driving (10 of which must be at night) before he can get his restricted license. His best friend, born the same year doesn't even want to get his permit-he much prefers that his parents chauffeur him around everywhere. It's going to suck to be him in a few years when he turns 18 and his mom sends him packing off to college with no way to get around, lol. My youngest wants to folllow his brothers into the military (though he wants to be a Marine, God bless him) so he'll probably want his full drivers license before he goes to boot camp (he's a sophomore now so that's a couple of years off).

My neighbor's kid, now 23, still doesn't have his license.  Apparently doesn't have any interest in getting it, even though we live in an area where you're quite limited on where you can get without a car.  (I once drove by him in a torrential thunderstorm in the neighborhood, and after realizing who it was, made a u-ey and picked him up)

His younger brother got his license as soon as possible. 

[J N Winkler]

Kansas also has a fifty-hour supervised driving requirement and this is enforced through logbooks.  It was not in effect when I was learning to drive, but I would have had relatively little difficulty complying with it.  I got an instructional permit in January 1992, and by the time I got my full license the following June, I estimate I had had about 100 hours of supervised driving experience.  Most of this came from half an hour spent driving after school every day, though I picked up another 15 hours driving to and from Nebraska and several hours from weekend errand running.  I started with gravel roads (some others consider this advanced because it is easy to get going too fast and not realize it until you have to stop), and only graduated to sustained freeway driving comparatively late, with a drive to Newton and back, taking old US 81 out and I-135 back.

Middle-class people were considerably less squeezed financially back then than they are now, but there were plenty of people in my driver's education class who had difficulty getting learning time behind the wheel.  When I was riding in the learner vehicle in driver education class, the instructor had to deploy the passenger brake once.  This was on I-135 and the student who was driving was next to a weaving lane but was not adjusting his speed to allow another vehicle to merge.  It turned out that his father, who had just bought a sports car, was refusing to give him behind-the-wheel time.

[vdeane]

NY had a 20 hour requirement when I learned to drive, and people who had driver's ed (from an approved school, which means a government one); it is now 50 hours (no idea if the driver's ed exemption is still there).

[Takumi]

Virginia was 40 hours when I was learning. By the time I actually got my license, I'd had my learners for at least 3 years, but probably hadn't had 40 hours of experience. My mom was extremely stingy about letting me drive her car, and it wasn't until I moved in with my dad and grandfather at 18 that I finally started driving somewhat regularly.

[bing101]

http://www.capradio.org/articles/2016/03/14/sacramento-state-students-ride-in-self-driving-shuttle-to-get-to-class


What about this there's going to be an automated shuttle service at some places where the driver is not needed.

[PHLBOS]

Thread Bump:

An article from last Sunday's Philadelphia Inquirer stating that contrary to popular belief; millennials are indeed buying cars... just a little later than life than their ancestors.

A 2016 J.D. Power's Power Information Network study reported that the share of millennials in the new-car market jumped 28 percent. By 2020, they are expected to make up 40 percent of U.S. car sales.

"They've been delaying their purchases of vehicles," said Brian Maas, president of the California New Car Dealers Association, "but they're still going to enter the market."

The spike is not that surprising: It's only natural to presume that as 20-year-olds turn into 35-year-olds, they become more likely to buy cars, as every generation did before them.

"When you think about it, people are having families later, they're getting married later, they may be leaving their home later - all of those factors," Maas said. "So it makes logical sense that they might buy their cars later, too."

[freebrickproductions]

Add to that that a good number of Millennials are also getting saddled with large amounts of student loan debt, and are also going into an economy looking for jobs which have all been shipped overseas or were cut back by the "Great Recession", which is going to delay when they can buy things.

[Max Rockatansky]

Thread Bump:

An article from last Sunday's Philadelphia Inquirer stating that contrary to popular belief; millennials are indeed buying cars... just a little later than life than their ancestors.

A 2016 J.D. Power's Power Information Network study reported that the share of millennials in the new-car market jumped 28 percent. By 2020, they are expected to make up 40 percent of U.S. car sales.

"They've been delaying their purchases of vehicles," said Brian Maas, president of the California New Car Dealers Association, "but they're still going to enter the market."

The spike is not that surprising: It's only natural to presume that as 20-year-olds turn into 35-year-olds, they become more likely to buy cars, as every generation did before them.

"When you think about it, people are having families later, they're getting married later, they may be leaving their home later - all of those factors," Maas said. "So it makes logical sense that they might buy their cars later, too."

Funny, I keep hearing the phrase "25 is the new 18" thrown out there.  It seems like every age group growing up from Gen X on is approaching life stages 5-10 years from what the Baby Boomers and prior generations did.  Kind of makes you wonder what the causes of that are, there certainly isn't the expectation to grow up as fast these days even compared to when I was a kid.  Basically it seems like nobody really expects much out of you until that 25 year barrier be it; your family, school, work, people you are in a relationship, ect.  I'd be curious to really see if that trend is something happening in other first world countries or if it is something that is mainly a U.S. phenomenon.

Incidentally anyone in the 30-40 range ever look back at family photos of your parents or grand parents recently?  I've scanned a lot of my family albums recently and its stunning to see how much older people looked at a younger age the further you go back. 

[Rothman]

I think the "expectation to grow up as fast [as previous generations]" is definitely dampened by the fact that college is now the dominant next step after high school and due to that enormous increase in demand for college education, the cost has skyrocketed to the point where those that can work to meet their costs are in the minority.

Tangent: I know someone raises their hand whenever someone says that you can't work through college anymore and then says something idiotic like, "I took a full load and worked two jobs and got it done!"  Congrats.  Not everyone can do that due to their particular program's schedule and perhaps even physical and psychological factors.  Even then, my father worked one menial job and got himself through college, covering all costs involved.  Shoot, I had a great package when I went to grad school (most of my college cost waived, except for a few fees, given a research assistantship to earn some money, etc.) and still had to go into some debt to cover living expenses.

Anyway, the short of it is that due to the idea that college is the only way to go for most of middle-class America has boosted costs to ridiculous levels and have required a lot of kids to rely on their parents and other sources for longer.  They go into debt, can't cover the debt payments with the job they get, so they live at home to avoid rent, for one example.

I've been urging my own kids to find alternate education and career paths to avoid taking on an absurd amount of debt.  I think it's much harder for them than it was for me when it came to graduating from high school and figuring out what to do, simply because it can't be assumed that college is worth the expense in all fields (Heck, even in my office, I'm kicking myself for paying to get a masters degree, since, instead of paying for those years, I could have been working a traineeship for those years, making money and ending up at the same salary level anyway). 

It's incredible that we're now expecting 17-year-old kids have to figure out the best bang for the buck given the huge change in the paradigm.  My baby boomer parents -- those that point their fingers and sneer at the younger generations as being irresponsible or whatnot -- never had to deal with that.  Both of them just headed off to college and had a much easier go of making ends meet than I did and definitely my children.

If anything, the world is worse off because of baby boomers making it harder on the subsequent generations and not because millennials are entitled brats.

[Max Rockatansky]

Here's something I never really understood, how did college educations get such a premium social value with this generation compared to mine or the Baby Boomers?  I grew up hearing repeatedly (Gen X age) that some day that all the jobs will require a four year degree even to apply for them.  While that might be the case with top flight corporate jobs that never seemed to be something that ever came to fruition as advertised.  For me maybe it was different, I've always been involved in Law Enforcement or the types of entities that surround it.  In that sphere most people are straight up in telling you that you need career experience more than anything to succeed and then you add college gradually later as you go.  Is that kind of thing appealing to young people?...I tend to think it really isn't very much anymore.  But one thing is for certain, you hear countless stories of kids who go get a four year degree who come out the back side without a job still.  Generally it comes down to one of two things; one graduating individual is arrogant because they have a college education and expects success to be handed to them, or the employer comes back and says entry level positions need career experience.

So it begs the question what the hell was the point of being saddled with all that debt if it takes you literally nowhere out of school?  I can imagine that is pretty disheartening to get constant rejections, but the stress on the debt ridden finances is even worse.  Really it isn't so much of a surprise then that people grow up slower or don't have buying power to purchase things, cars included.  I guess its really a damned if you do, and damned if you don't.  Really there isn't much alternatives others than to go in the military for a paid education, get an academic scholarship, or enter the work force for career experience and accumulate an education at a more gradual rate. 

One thing that seems to be missing that Baby Boomers and Gen Xers had was entry level jobs that were unskilled that paid well.  Really that is a discussion for another thread but most of the blue collar stuff has been pushed out of the country by wage price point and benefits.  So really there isn't much out there but crappy throw away entry level jobs that don't leave much in the way of career experience unless you find something with a practical skill being taught.

[J N Winkler]

I think the "expectation to grow up as fast [as previous generations]" is definitely dampened by the fact that college is now the dominant next step after high school and due to that enormous increase in demand for college education, the cost has skyrocketed to the point where those that can work to meet their costs are in the minority.

College is one of a few sectors in the economy where the cost basis has been rising much faster than inflation (health care is another), but outside of the desperately under-regulated for-profit schools, I don't think that is actually a result of increased demand as reflected in a rise in student numbers.  Universities have not only carbon-copied the CEO pay syndrome from the private sector, but have also greatly increased non-instructional spending (dorms and sports facilities are probably the most often-quoted examples, but there are also things like library digitization initiatives and so on).  Meanwhile, the academic labor force--the people who actually do the teaching--has seen no significant real increase in pay and in fact has faced casualization and loss of job security.

Tangent: I know someone raises their hand whenever someone says that you can't work through college anymore and then says something idiotic like, "I took a full load and worked two jobs and got it done!"  Congrats.  Not everyone can do that due to their particular program's schedule and perhaps even physical and psychological factors.  Even then, my father worked one menial job and got himself through college, covering all costs involved.  Shoot, I had a great package when I went to grad school (most of my college cost waived, except for a few fees, given a research assistantship to earn some money, etc.) and still had to go into some debt to cover living expenses.

In 1970 it was actually possible to put yourself through college without taking on any debt--meeting living expenses as well as tuition, fees, and books--while working a minimum-wage job.  Even as late as the mid-1990's, I was able to meet all of my college-related costs with scholarships.  That is much more difficult for even bright students to do now, simply because the increase in college costs even at Midwestern state universities has far outstripped the growth in endowment income that is disbursable through scholarships.

As for expecting young people in late high school, with little to no life experience and decision-making faculties that will not fully mature until they are in their mid-twenties, to sign up for a college program only on the strength of a fully elaborated cost-benefit analysis, I don't think that is any more sustainable than college costs rising faster than inflation.  Why are we asking 17- to 18-year-olds to try to guess what the job market will be like four or five years in the future when experienced investors with much better access to raw data and analysis struggle with the same problem?  Ultimately the main benefit of a college education is what, for lack of a better description, may be called a graduate outlook on life.

[Chris]

I'd be curious to really see if that trend is something happening in other first world countries or if it is something that is mainly a U.S. phenomenon.

There is a similar trend in the Netherlands. Particularly during the recession, young adults remained in school for a longer period, taking up a new study because the job prospects were bad. They often end up with a huge student debt.

The result is marriage at a later point in life, buying their first house later, getting children at a later point in life, starting a fulltime job later, and as a result, buying a car later.

Though the taxes on cars are insanely high in the Netherlands so young people usually do not buy a brand new car, but rather a used one. Even many older people with good jobs do that, for them it makes no sense to buy a mid-size car and see $ 20,000 depreciate in the first 4-5 years.

New car sales are as low as the were in the 1960s. Some people say it's because people aren't interested in driving anymore, but other statistics disprove that point, as the total car fleet is still growing and VMT records are recorded almost every year, even during the recession.

[jeffandnicole]

Even many older people with good jobs do that, for them it makes no sense to buy a mid-size car and see $ 20,000 depreciate in the first 4-5 years.

Honestly, it makes no sense to worry about a car's depreciation, unless someone has full intentions on selling it after a few years.  And even then depreciation is the wrong term.  A buyer is mostly concerned about the overall condition of the vehicle.  A clean car with low mileage will sell a lot better than the same car, same age that is stained and dented with oil leaking out the engine.  Depreciation is mainly a tax term, and someone writing off their vehicle over a period of years is only concerned about the depreciation schedule, not the condition of the vehicle.

That's why I never thought the argument that once you drive a new vehicle off a car lot, it loses $1,000.  That may be true if you take it around the block and return it, because now the dealership has to clean it, prep it, advertise it, etc.  Stuff like that costs money.  It had nothing to do with depreciation...it has to do with the expenses required to resell it.

Guess what...if someone drives a used car off the lot and decides to return it, the used car dealer will probably buy it back...for a thousand less than you bought it.  That used car salesman still has those same expenses to worry about.

[Chris]

Well, why would you spend $ 35,000 - 40,000 on a mid-size car, while you can spend $ 14,000 on a 4-5 year old model with a relatively low mileage? One's transportation cost could go way down without compromising too much on quality. At least in the Netherlands, the used car market is generally reliable, in particular for used cars that aren't too old. You can buy a decent used car with 40-50,000 miles on it without it being 'stained and dented with oil leaking out the engine'. That's a primary reason why new car sales are so low over here, the used car market is a better option for many. (140,000 new cars vs 1,800,000 used car sales in 2016).

'Peak car' has been predicted many times in the Netherlands as well. However 2014-2016 had the strongest VMT growth in the 21st century, while there was no pronounced decline in VMT during the recession. Anti-highway advocacies often claim that traffic models contain too much growth to justify road investment. While in reality, VMT growth even outpaces the high growth scenario used in the national traffic model.

[adventurernumber1]

My views have changed slightly since the first page of this thread.

The situation, as it is now, is that I am 17 years old with an expired driver's permit (and no license). I have battled anxiety disorders since age 14 (much longer if you include OCD), but they have worsened in recent years. At age 15 I had a permit, and was planned and set to get my license once I turned 16. However, in the midst of 2015, my anxiety disorders got worse, and now I cannot drive. Now, for the past almost 2 years, if I get behind the wheel I begin to have tremors, heart palpitations, and I start hyperventilating and I'm on the verge of having a panic attack. Why? I have not a clue. At one time I wasn't like this, and with my permit, I drove, and I drove good. But now I have had to adapt to a life of no driving. Yes, it is not as good as a life of being able to drive, but I no longer have that privilege. Being somebody who is now physically and mentally unable to drive, I have had a new kind of understanding for pedestrians and people who don't drive. The majority of millennials who don't drive are not in my situation, but I still have a new understanding for people who do not drive. While not always the case, some people, like me, simply have health issues that prohibit them from driving. This also means I have a new light on pedestrian safety and enjoying seeing it in things as simple as Diverging Diamond Interchanges. This also means I highly support many bike lanes. This also means I understand a lifestyle of taking mass transit. I love roads, and support a world of driving, but I have a new understanding for other, alternative lifestyles now. So this is the reason why I can no longer drive.

[J N Winkler]

Well, why would you spend $ 35,000 - 40,000 on a mid-size car, while you can spend $ 14,000 on a 4-5 year old model with a relatively low mileage? One's transportation cost could go way down without compromising too much on quality. At least in the Netherlands, the used car market is generally reliable, in particular for used cars that aren't too old. You can buy a decent used car with 40-50,000 miles on it without it being 'stained and dented with oil leaking out the engine'. That's a primary reason why new car sales are so low over here, the used car market is a better option for many. (140,000 new cars vs 1,800,000 used car sales in 2016.)

Similar considerations apply in the US, where used-car sales are around 40 million a year while new-car sales are 7 million.  Former fleet cars, cars that have just come off leases, and certified pre-owned cars are considered especially safe choices among used cars.  However, many people try to buy new for cars they plan to keep indefinitely, in order to avoid inheriting someone else's undisclosed problems and to have full control over choice of optional equipment.

I suspect the relatively low ratio of new cars in the sales mix in the Netherlands (7.8% versus 15% in the US) has to do with steep purchase tax of up to 45%.  In the US typically only sales tax (which varies from one jurisdiction to another, with 10% being considered quite high) is levied on new car sales.  The Netherlands also has periodic vehicle inspection, while many US jurisdictions do not.  The structure of the wholesale market in used vehicles may also be different.  The US has auto auctions, relatively few of which are open to buyers other than licensed dealers, and there are auto information services (Carfax and the like) that will sell service histories for a given VIN but do not capture any DIY work or necessarily the details of work done by a shop even if it externally reports generating an invoice for it.

[Brandon]

Well, why would you spend $ 35,000 - 40,000 on a mid-size car, while you can spend $ 14,000 on a 4-5 year old model with a relatively low mileage?

Depends on how long you intend to keep the vehicle and what kind of miles you are puting on the vehicle.  For me, buying new makes more sense as I'll keep the vehicle 10 years (or more) and put a ton of miles on it.  All the miles and therefore all the problems are mine, and mine alone.  I know the entire maintenance history of the vehicle.  I also have a substantial period of time without a car payment.

[GCrites]

Old people are responsible for a massive amount of new car sales. Many of them can't deal with breakdowns like younger people can. That's why the secondary market is flooded with 5-year-old Buicks and Implalas that are only popular with low-income individuals needing basic transportation and no one else. Even cars like Land Rovers, Maseratis and Lincolns are in much, much higher demand on the primary market than secondary since nobody wants them when they are more than three years old.