Future of roads in self-driving cars world

[kurumi]

https://twitter.com/cat_beltane/status/588359354136403969

[Duke87]

To some degree, self-driving cars are the same as any other innovation in vehicular technology. The autopilot feature first enters the market in luxury models, but then as time goes on it starts to work its way down into more common new vehicles as well - first as an option, then as standard. From that point, since cars have long lifespans, it'll be another couple decades before human-driven cars become something you don't really see anymore, but it'll happen.

The real question is whether, like with airbags, regulators will step in and make it a mandatory safety feature, or whether, like with automatic transmissions, it will simply become something the vast majority of people voluntarily adopt because for anyone who isn't a niche enthusiast it's just so convenient with no apparent downside. I could see this going either way, depending on which group of opposing interests wins out.

What I don't think we'll see is the idea of people owning their own cars going the way of the dodo. Yes, the idea of "but the car can just leave you and go get the next person" fits lovely into the new urbanist vision of utopia where parked cars never darken our curbsides again, but this ignores the reality that people like owning things and being able to treat them as their personal domain. It also ignores the reality that people tend to store personal belongings in their vehicles and in some cases it is impractical or at least inconvenient not to (imagine, for example, going on a fishing trip and having to bring all of your gear into your hotel room every night because the car is going to drive away and serve someone else).

[Revive 755]

What I don't think we'll see is the idea of people owning their own cars going the way of the dodo. Yes, the idea of "but the car can just leave you and go get the next person" fits lovely into the new urbanist vision of utopia where parked cars never darken our curbsides again, but this ignores the reality that people like owning things and being able to treat them as their personal domain. It also ignores the reality that people tend to store personal belongings in their vehicles and in some cases it is impractical or at least inconvenient not to (imagine, for example, going on a fishing trip and having to bring all of your gear into your hotel room every night because the car is going to drive away and serve someone else).

I second this.  The idea of not owning a car and having one drive to my location after ferrying someone else around is unappealing, especially with the way other often treat stuff that is not theirs.  Just look how well this work with library items.  Worst case with cars - say a car ferries a group home from a bar in the overnight hours, and someone hurls in it.  Who is going to clean up that car before it drives to take someone to work in the early morning hours?

[redlightgreenarrow1]

Of course I believe self driving cars are coming, even if it means it being regulated to only being used on freeways and highways only. I believe also that they need to definitely step up on road signs to allow them to be readable by the self driving car......Ahem, California...... OCR nightmare there.

Here in Arizona, our major freeways would make it easy very easy for a self driving car to navigate. Lane markings are quite visible, and clean, mostly newer pavement, etc.

[empirestate]

Of course I believe self driving cars are coming, even if it means it being regulated to only being used on freeways and highways only. I believe also that they need to definitely step up on road signs to allow them to be readable by the self driving car......Ahem, California...... OCR nightmare there.

Here in Arizona, our major freeways would make it easy very easy for a self driving car to navigate. Lane markings are quite visible, and clean, mostly newer pavement, etc.

Vehicles wouldn't need to "read" the signs, per se; rather, they'd already inherently "know" them as part of a database. (And some signs only pertain to human operators; autonomous vehicles wouldn't need that information at all.)

[intelati49]

Of course I believe self driving cars are coming, even if it means it being regulated to only being used on freeways and highways only. I believe also that they need to definitely step up on road signs to allow them to be readable by the self driving car......Ahem, California...... OCR nightmare there.

Here in Arizona, our major freeways would make it easy very easy for a self driving car to navigate. Lane markings are quite visible, and clean, mostly newer pavement, etc.

Vehicles wouldn't need to "read" the signs, per se; rather, they'd already inherently "know" them as part of a database. (And some signs only pertain to human operators; autonomous vehicles wouldn't need that information at all.)

I was thinking about that a while ago. The car still needs to know where to go in the micro sense. (<5ft) I'm pretty sure you can't get that with GPS right now, so it needs visual input. So not necessarily signs, but pavement markings are important.

As for the idea in general, I think we're 5 years off from the first rollout of a publicly available model, further five years for it to rollout to the "common people" (<$15k), then twenty years to get 95% of cars, then we can start on the iRobot no steering wheels idea

[empirestate]

Of course I believe self driving cars are coming, even if it means it being regulated to only being used on freeways and highways only. I believe also that they need to definitely step up on road signs to allow them to be readable by the self driving car......Ahem, California...... OCR nightmare there.

Here in Arizona, our major freeways would make it easy very easy for a self driving car to navigate. Lane markings are quite visible, and clean, mostly newer pavement, etc.

Vehicles wouldn't need to "read" the signs, per se; rather, they'd already inherently "know" them as part of a database. (And some signs only pertain to human operators; autonomous vehicles wouldn't need that information at all.)

I was thinking about that a while ago. The car still needs to know where to go in the micro sense. (<5ft) I'm pretty sure you can't get that with GPS right now, so it needs visual input. So not necessarily signs, but pavement markings are important.

Exactly; it's a rather different set of sensory input than what humans require. Anything static that we observe with our eyes, such as road signs, can instead be electronically stored in or transmitted to an autonomous vehicle. Real-time information like vehicle position and the movements of other traffic still require some kind of "seeing" by the vehicle. And a large amount of that information will stop being needed once all other traffic becomes autonomous, because vehicles can transmit their movements to each other electronically.

Hmm, I wonder if non-autonomous vehicles will start being equipped with just that: a system to transmit their movements to other vehicles that are autonomous? It may help alleviate some of the conflicts that will arise during the mixed-traffic phase of their evolution.

[redlightgreenarrow1]

Don't some "autonomous" cars read the speed limit signs to determine the speed limit? I know that Teslas do that to show you the speed limit on the dash--rather than relying on database info- possibly for greater accuracy.

[intelati49]

Hmm, I wonder if non-autonomous vehicles will start being equipped with just that: a system to transmit their movements to other vehicles that are autonomous? It may help alleviate some of the conflicts that will arise during the mixed-traffic phase of their evolution.

Pretty sure that standard will be hashed out after the first guy comes out with the first car.

[kalvado]

Don't some "autonomous" cars read the speed limit signs to determine the speed limit? I know that Teslas do that to show you the speed limit on the dash--rather than relying on database info- possibly for greater accuracy.

I would say you need both. Sometimes signs are less than readable due to snow/dirt/whatnot; and sometimes there will be a cop enforcing just-reduced speed limit.
Reading 2 digits of fairly standard sign format should be doable. Something like AD uRK AHEAD and recognizing part of the sign is missing would be more of a challenge.

[empirestate]

Don't some "autonomous" cars read the speed limit signs to determine the speed limit? I know that Teslas do that to show you the speed limit on the dash--rather than relying on database info- possibly for greater accuracy.

I would say you need both. Sometimes signs are less than readable due to snow/dirt/whatnot; and sometimes there will be a cop enforcing just-reduced speed limit.
Reading 2 digits of fairly standard sign format should be doable. Something like AD uRK AHEAD and recognizing part of the sign is missing would be more of a challenge.

I guess I'd put it this way: in a fully autonomous system you wouldn't need both, since the only type of "sign" anybody would deploy would be virtual. But for as long as self-driving cars are needed to operate within a human-oriented system, yes, you will need additional technology installed.

This is the great challenge, of course: it's not that it's hard to advance to the level of self-driving cars, it's that we first have to advance substantially beyond that level until such time as we can revert to the easier system.


iPhone

[kphoger]

once all other traffic becomes autonomous

This will only happen if walking and bicycling become illegal.

[empirestate]

once all other traffic becomes autonomous

This will only happen if walking and bicycling become illegal.

Right, and until then, a commensurately smaller amount of that information will stop being needed.


iPhone

[Tonytone]

A majority of people are afraid of change. Just think years ago cellphones weren't around, and when they started to develop people didn't want them around, only a Minority of people really had or wanted a cellphone (They were also very expensive).  Now its 2017 and people scramble every year to get the latest I-Phone; Self driving cars will be the norm just like how marijuana will soon be legal.