Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)

[Roadgeekteen]

After this week, here is how the top four should be:
1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Alabama
4. Cincinnati

If Georgia/Alabama is close (with Georgia winning) and Michigan and Cincinnati both win, there's a chance that nothing changes next week. If Alabama beats Georgia next week (assuming Michigan and Cincinnati both win), here is how it could go:
1. Michigan
2. Alabama
3. Cincinnati
4. Georgia (Notre Dame could go here if the Fighting Elephants blow out Georgia)

Going 13-0 is impressive, even on a somewhat suspect schedule. Cincy does have an impressive win (at Notre Dame). UTSA (which was undefeated until getting blown out by North Texas yesterday) had a very soft schedule, and I feel that 3-9 Nebraska (with all nine losses by single digits) likely would've gone 12-0 on that schedule.

What if Georgia blows out Alabama

[NWI_Irish96]

Whichever way you slice it, at least 3 of the 5 teams with multiple Playoff berths are out this year: Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma for sure, likely Notre Dame, and quite possibly Alabama. If Alabama loses by one possession to UGA, I think they should be in, as one of the clear four best teams in the country. If they lose by double digits then they should be out, barring chaos.

Ultimate chaos scenario:
- Georgia blows out Alabama
- Baylor beats OK State
- Iowa beats Michigan
- Houston beats Cincinnati

Auburn needed an absolute gift from an SEC officiating crew to beat Georgia State and they lost to Penn State. Needing 4 overtimes to beat them is not indicative of being clearly one of the four best teams in the country.

Georgia and Alabama have four common opponents. Georgia beat them by an average of 28.0 and Alabama beat them by an average of 9.75. Every team has a game here or there where they have a close call in a game they should have won easily, but a "clearly top 4" team doesn't have as many of them as Alabama has had.

Alabama has lost their margin of error when it comes to losing to Georgia. Even the closest of losses to Georgia should not keep them ahead of a 1-loss Michigan, 1-loss Oklahoma State, 0-loss Cincinnati, or 1-loss Notre Dame.

[JayhawkCO]

Whichever way you slice it, at least 3 of the 5 teams with multiple Playoff berths are out this year: Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma for sure, likely Notre Dame, and quite possibly Alabama. If Alabama loses by one possession to UGA, I think they should be in, as one of the clear four best teams in the country. If they lose by double digits then they should be out, barring chaos.

Ultimate chaos scenario:
- Georgia blows out Alabama
- Baylor beats OK State
- Iowa beats Michigan
- Houston beats Cincinnati

Auburn needed an absolute gift from an SEC officiating crew to beat Georgia State and they lost to Penn State. Needing 4 overtimes to beat them is not indicative of being clearly one of the four best teams in the country.

Georgia and Alabama have four common opponents. Georgia beat them by an average of 28.0 and Alabama beat them by an average of 9.75. Every team has a game here or there where they have a close call in a game they should have won easily, but a "clearly top 4" team doesn't have as many of them as Alabama has had.

Alabama has lost their margin of error when it comes to losing to Georgia. Even the closest of losses to Georgia should not keep them ahead of a 1-loss Michigan, 1-loss Oklahoma State, 0-loss Cincinnati, or 1-loss Notre Dame.

But it will.

[Alps]

I swear if a 2 loss Alabama or Ohio State makes it in over undefeated Cincinnati CFB is rigged and I don't even care about Cincinatti

That's not going to happen. What could happen is Oklahoma State, if they win the Big 12, jumping Cincy. Then, if Bama beats UGA and Michigan beats Iowa, it would be 1) Bama 2) Michigan 3) Georgia 4) OK State. That is the only way that I see an undefeated Cincinnati getting left out.

That is also my feeling.

[Alps]

Whichever way you slice it, at least 3 of the 5 teams with multiple Playoff berths are out this year: Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma for sure, likely Notre Dame, and quite possibly Alabama. If Alabama loses by one possession to UGA, I think they should be in, as one of the clear four best teams in the country. If they lose by double digits then they should be out, barring chaos.

Ultimate chaos scenario:
- Georgia blows out Alabama
- Baylor beats OK State
- Iowa beats Michigan
- Houston beats Cincinnati

Auburn needed an absolute gift from an SEC officiating crew to beat Georgia State and they lost to Penn State. Needing 4 overtimes to beat them is not indicative of being clearly one of the four best teams in the country.

Georgia and Alabama have four common opponents. Georgia beat them by an average of 28.0 and Alabama beat them by an average of 9.75. Every team has a game here or there where they have a close call in a game they should have won easily, but a "clearly top 4" team doesn't have as many of them as Alabama has had.

Alabama has lost their margin of error when it comes to losing to Georgia. Even the closest of losses to Georgia should not keep them ahead of a 1-loss Michigan, 1-loss Oklahoma State, 0-loss Cincinnati, or 1-loss Notre Dame.

But it will.

No it won't. OK State jumps Bama with a win, for example.

[JayhawkCO]

Everyone acts like the committee is sensible.  They've proven many times that they're not.

[Billy F 1988]

Everyone acts like the committee is sensible.  They've proven many times that they're not.

And that's why I don't follow the CFP. It's garbage. The process to choose four finalists for the Big Four bowl games has become so diluted. Yeah, it was exciting at first to see 'Bama in one of the Big Four bowl games. But year after year, after the NCAA put the CFP into motion in 2013, it's been nearly the same conclusions for the major D1 teams. It's Vegeta-like prestige. It's the AD's of the major schools pounding their Gaston-sized chest while showboating to the rest of the D1 universe declaring them inferior. Saban and Richt won't even give an FCS/1-AA team two scolding hot tusks even if it was a money grab. The CFP is not ideal in selecting the final four teams to compete in one of the Big Four bowl games. Yet, the NCAA is like "We don't care what you think. The CFP is king of college football post-seasons!" Oh, really? So teams like Bama, Georgia, LSU and Tennessee get the main course while others have to pick up the bread crumbs that ain't worth a decaying llama turd?! Sounds like we need to spice up the CFP. I'm not talking black peppering a few games here and there. No. Spice the CFP up to Carolina Reaper levels!

[NWI_Irish96]

Well, if Notre Dame does make the playoff it will be with an interim coach.

[thspfc]

There are two big reasons why the NFL is by far my favorite sports league to follow, despite football not being my favorite sport overall: 1) almost every single game matters, with the only exceptions being maybe a dozen late season games per year between teams that are already eliminated, and 2) there is more parity and year-to-year unpredictability than any other league in the world. That's to say, almost any team can realistically win the title at any time, and even the ones that can't are often just a year or two away from being in a position where they can (except for the Jets).

Suffice it to say, neither of those things are true about college football right now. As much as I dislike the notion of autobids in the sense that they could result in a mediocre team that won a bad conference getting into the playoff over a really good team that didn't win a great conference, autobids for winning a conference are the key to fixing college football. They would make the games matter. No longer would teams with two losses give up on the season.

Make it a 16 team playoff with autobids for all of the conference champions. That would do a lot in reversing the suicidal path that college football is going down.

Another thing that it needs is a central authority that has the final say over conference alignments and out of conference schedules.

[1995hoo]

UVA football made the big time. Sort of. Featured on C'Mon Man tonight. 

[webny99]

Not knowing a ton about college football, would a 12-team playoff work, like the NFL playoffs used to be before last year?

Whichever 4 teams would be picked under the current rules would get first-round byes (so if they're as good as they purport to be, they should have a very easy path to the semi-finals), and that would give 8 more teams a chance to compete for the title. It would also provide two more rounds to the playoffs. The current format just seems like kind of a joke, with a lot of consternation and fan outrage almost every year only for a grand total of 3 playoff games to be played. Chances are, you'd have the same 4 semi-finalists most of the time anyways, but the path to get there would be both more exciting AND more fair... basically a no-brainer in my book.

[NWI_Irish96]

Not knowing a ton about college football, would a 12-team playoff work, like the NFL playoffs used to be before last year?

Whichever 4 teams would be picked under the current rules would get first-round byes (so if they're as good as they purport to be, they should have a very easy path to the semi-finals), and that would give 8 more teams a chance to compete for the title. It would also provide two more rounds to the playoffs. The current format just seems like kind of a joke, with a lot of consternation and fan outrage almost every year only for a grand total of 3 playoff games to be played. Chances are, you'd have the same 4 semi-finalists most of the time anyways, but the path to get there would be both more exciting AND more fair... basically a no-brainer in my book.

I guess you have to define what you mean by "work". From a competitive standpoint, a 12-team playoff is a terrible idea. Most years, the #1 team blows out the #4 team because there's that much talent gap between #1 and #4, so why do we want to go all the way down to 12?

Not every conference, not even all of the Power 5 ones, have a team good enough to compete for a championship every year. I don't feel that we need to invite everybody to the party.

Now, if your definition of "work" is generating more interest and money, then sure, the bigger the better.

[webny99]

I actually had the following article in mind while composing my post, although I hadn't taken the time to go back find it until now:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-12-team-college-football-playoff-would-be-big-enough-90-percent-of-the-time/

The gap between #1 and #4 isn't the issue, since they both have a chance to win under the current format. The real issue (and what seems to create controversy every year) is the gap between #5 and #4, since one gets a chance and one doesn't. That's what an expanded playoff would address. If the #1 team really is that much better than everyone else, then so be it. If they're that much better, they should win it regardless.

[ilpt4u]

Back in the BCS Bowl era, after the separate BCS Title Game was added, so we'll call it BCS V2...That version picked 10 teams to play in 5 Bowl (not playoff) games: Fiesta, Sugar, Orange, Rose, and BCS Title. The (at the time) 6 Power Conferences automatically got 6 of the bids (the old Big East was still considered a Power Conference then, plus the current Power 5). Notre Dame got an Automatic Bid if certain conditions were met. And Mid-Major Conference Champs had a forumla to auto-qualify as well, that was initially almost impossible but was getting more "reachable"  by the end of the BCS era. #1 and #2 in the BCS Rankings got automatic bids to the BCS Title Game, regardless of Conference standings/thats how we got an LSU-Alabama Rematch BCS Title game

I am not proposing a return to the BCS era, but the way the 10 teams were selected actually had some merit, and I think it would be a heck of a way to select a 10-team playoff. Of course, the old Big East folded, the American Athletic Conference is its theoretical successor, and in no way is a Power Conference, hence why we have the "Power 5"  now.

So to select 10 teams on the "old"  BCS formula: The 5 P5 Champs. Highest rated Group of 5 Conference Champ, assuming 1 finishes rated higher than at least one of the Power5 Champs. Notre Dame/other Independents like BYU if they finish in the Top 10. So that is probably 6 or 7 "automatic"  bids at that point. 1&2 ranked teams in the nation are also auto invited, but generally those 2 will usually be already in the group, but if not either/both also get an auto bid.  Then, the final 3 or 4 "At Large" /Wild Card berths will be awarded with whatever subjective rankings/ratings/polls/committees/Disney's TV preference dictate. This still leaves room for some subjectivity and debate and the "beauty contest"  that is College Football, but also gives Auto Qualification standards to make the Football Big Dance, which is really needed

Once you have the 10 teams, take their current ranking status, and seed them 1-10. "Wild Card" /Opening weekend involves, played at the better seed's home stadium, #7 hosting #10, while #8 hosts #9


Quarterfinals/Round of 8:
#1 hosts the poorest remaining seed from Wild Card Weekend, at their home stadium.

#4 vs #5 at a BCS/NY6 Bowl site
^^^^^^^^Top of Bracket^^^^^^^
vvvvvvvvvBottom of Bracketvvvvvvvvv
#3 vs #6 at a BCS/NY6 Bowl site

#2 hosts the "other"  Wild Card Weekend winner, also at #2's home stadium

Semifinals/Final Four:
2 "Top"  Winners at a BCS/NY6 Bowl Site
2 "Bottom"  Winners at a BCS/NY6 Bowl Site

National Title Game:
2 Winners, at a site bid out like the SuperBowl, Final Four, and current CFP Title Game

[NWI_Irish96]

I actually had the following article in mind while composing my post, although I hadn't taken the time to go back find it until now:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-12-team-college-football-playoff-would-be-big-enough-90-percent-of-the-time/

The gap between #1 and #4 isn't the issue, since they both have a chance to win under the current format. The real issue (and what seems to create controversy every year) is the gap between #5 and #4, since one gets a chance and one doesn't. That's what an expanded playoff would address. If the #1 team really is that much better than everyone else, then so be it. If they're that much better, they should win it regardless.

That problem can never be solved. When it was just a single game with 2 teams, the controversy was between #2 and #3. Now at 4 teams, the controversy is between #4 and #5. If you expand to 12 teams, #13 will whine and complain about not getting in.

Four is the smallest number of teams where you include everybody with a realistic chance to win the championship.

Four is also the largest number of teams where you can still maintain most of the tradition of the Bowl system. You have teams ranked 5-12 playing in bowl games and the bowl games still mean something. You have #13 as the highest ranked team in a bowl game and nobody will care and the bowls eventually die out.

[ilpt4u]

Four is the smallest number of teams where you include everybody with a realistic chance to win the championship.

I love it when a 12 seeded Mid Major makes the Final Four in the Spring. Because the ESPN and CBS talking heads ignore them all season, and yet they find a way. Guess what? It can be done in Football, also.

Four is also the largest number of teams where you can still maintain most of the tradition of the Bowl system. You have teams ranked 5-12 playing in bowl games and the bowl games still mean something. You have #13 as the highest ranked team in a bowl game and nobody will care and the bowls eventually die out.

The adoption of the BCS, then the CFP already has killed the Bowl system tradition. And when Bowl games give up their "traditional"  name in place of a Sponsor, guess what? They sold out their tradition, also

Also, when .500 teams qualify for the Bowl game Postseason, again there is no tradition

The Bowl "Tradition"  has been dead for over 20 years. It is a postseason exhibition game to give ESPN filler programming during the Holidays

[NWI_Irish96]

Four is the smallest number of teams where you include everybody with a realistic chance to win the championship.

I love it when a 12 seeded Mid Major makes the Final Four in the Spring. Because the ESPN and CBS talking heads ignore them all season, and yet they find a way. Guess what? It can be done in Football, also.

No, it really can't. The better team wins in a football game a far greater percentage of the time than in a basketball game. Plus, in basketball the top division is 3x as many teams as in football so you have fewer games during the season between tournament teams and you get more teams that are underseeded.

[US 89]

Utes are Pac-12 champions!

They also just plain looked good. No way the Utah that was on the field last night was the same Utah that lost to BYU and whoever else back at the start of the season. I'm pulling for Iowa to win the Big 10 Championship simply because I'd rather play them in the Rose Bowl than Ohio State, who would likely get the Big 10's Rose Bowl invite if Michigan wins today.

As for the rest of today's games ... I am doing the unthinkable and rooting for the "university" of Georgia to win today. Most of Alabama's games against real teams this year were pretty close... including needing four overtimes to beat a meh Auburn team last week. I don't want Bama winning and stealing a playoff spot.

Oklahoma State miiight jump Cincinnati if they look absolutely dominant against Baylor today and win in blowout fashion. But if that game is close, I don't see how Cincy gets left out of the playoff if they can take care of Houston today.

[NWI_Irish96]

Utes are Pac-12 champions!

They also just plain looked good. No way the Utah that was on the field last night was the same Utah that lost to BYU and whoever else back at the start of the season. I'm pulling for Iowa to win the Big 10 Championship simply because I'd rather play them in the Rose Bowl than Ohio State, who would likely get the Big 10's Rose Bowl invite if Michigan wins today.

As for the rest of today's games ... I am doing the unthinkable and rooting for the "university" of Georgia to win today. Most of Alabama's games against real teams this year were pretty close... including needing four overtimes to beat a meh Auburn team last week. I don't want Bama winning and stealing a playoff spot.

Oklahoma State miiight jump Cincinnati if they look absolutely dominant against Baylor today and win in blowout fashion. But if that game is close, I don't see how Cincy gets left out of the playoff if they can take care of Houston today.

Oregon State was a bad loss, but BYU and San Diego St are both pretty good teams. BYU went 5-0 vs PAC-12 teams. If BYU didn't have those 4 turnovers against Boise St., they're probably headed to the Fiesta Bowl as a Top 10 team.

[nexus73]

Funny factoid for Oregon State football: Last season and this season saw them beat the team which won the Pac-12 title.  If they can figure out how to win the rest of the games, then us Beaver fans will be rather happy!

Rick

[NWI_Irish96]

Oklahoma State tackled less than a foot from the goal line on 4th and goal. Baylor wins the Big 12. Some other team is going to get in the playoff over Oklahoma State because of those few inches.

[webny99]

Oklahoma State tackled less than a foot from the goal line on 4th and goal. Baylor wins the Big 12. Some other team is going to get in the playoff over Oklahoma State because of those few inches.

Reminds me of 49ers-Seahawks in the 2019 regular season finale. With 0:12 remaining, Dre Greenlaw tackled Jacob Hollister within half an inch of the goal line on 4th and goal to seal the victory, the NFC West, and the #1 seed for the 49ers. Those inches changed the entire course of the postseason and set up the 49ers Super Bowl run by gifting the 13-3 Packers a bye (avoiding the 49ers until the championship), meanwhile the 13-3 Saints have to play a Wild Card game and lose to the Vikings in overtime, and the rest is history.

[ET21]

NIU Huskies with their 5th MAC Title in 10 years on their 8th trip to the conference championship in 12 years

[US 89]

Oklahoma State tackled less than a foot from the goal line on 4th and goal. Baylor wins the Big 12. Some other team is going to get in the playoff over Oklahoma State because of those few inches.

Would Oklahoma State have jumped Cincinnati though with such a tight win over Baylor? Baylor is good but they do have that loss to TCU (who by all accounts is terrible this year). And OSU lost to mediocre Iowa State, which is a decent team but has a lot of bad losses (Texas Tech, for one).

Even if OSU had scored on that drive, I don’t see how a win in yesterday’s game could have put them above Cincy. If OSU had dominated in a hypothetical win yesterday, then we might be having that conversation.

[ilpt4u]

Was the USC-Cal game last night a makeup game from an earlier in the season postponement?

I mean, it was kinda awesome to end Championship Saturday with a mostly meaningless game between two 4-7 teams in the #Pac12AfterDark window. I mean, neither team was even playing for Bowl eligibility. Late night playing for pride game (and FOX TV contract commitments), and giving the degenerate gamblers a little more fodder after getting "taken"  during the Title Game action