Predictions for the most populated states

[golden eagle]

Since we had a lot of fun with the most populated cities, let's do one for the states. The list is up for the states as of 2009. I do believe that for some time to come, California and Texas will be the top two states. However, I see a change at #3 as I think Florida will overtake New York within the next ten years. Georgia (#9) is poised to be larger than Michigan (#8) and I predict that'll happen when the official census numbers come in next year. After that, I see Georgia outgaining Ohio (#7) and Pennsylvania (#6) within the next 10-15 years. I also believe that North Carolina (#10) will overtake Michigan within the next five to seven years. I also wouldn't be surprised if Arizona isn't a top-ten state by 2020.

[BigMattFromTexas]

Yeah, we have 24 million. I'm pretty sure we"ll be 2nd or a while...
BigMatt

[njroadhorse]

I see Virginia overtaking my homeland New Jersey not immediately, but in the forseeable future.

I also think North Carolina could jump Ohio too.

[cu2010]

I see NY falling out of the top 10 within the next 20 years if our damn taxes remain as high as they are...

[corco]

Once we figure out how to make water out of wind, Wyoming will pass all you sons of guns (except Texas) by 2125  

[jgb191]

Nearly half of my state of TEXAS has less than one person per square mile, and yet we're still the #2 in the nation!

If Texas had the population density similar to that of a Northeastern state (NJ, CT, RI, MA, etc), it would have about 300,000,000 people and the population of the USA would nearly double!

[SP Cook]

Most people move from state to state at one of two period in their life.  Either just at end of their education and the start of their worklife, or at the end of their worklife.  Population movement, IMHO, thus comes down to lifestyle and oportunity.

As to "young families":

- The move from north to south that has happened for decades will continue, perhaps speed up.  States will gain included both Carolinas, Tennessee, Texas, and Georgia.

- There are some states that just do not "get it".  The decline there is going to speed up.  Ohio and Pennsylvania lead this list.

- The move to California, however, has been over for some time.  Non-hispanic population there is in decline.  California was built on "movable jobs" (you can program a computer or make a movie anywhere) and those jobs are moving.  Many to Florida, many to the Mountain West.

- The special case is the DC metro.  Sadly (IMHO) the growth of government continues, and that continues to cause artificial population growth in VA and MD, and now even WV and PA.

As to retirees:

- Florida is approaching a "full" status.  Its ecology is delicate and new development is becoming problematical.  I look for Florida to stay about even.

- Other states are now picking up on the Florida system of providing a nice lifestyle, and low taxes, for people in their last years.  Growth is coming in Arizona, Nevada, and most of the south.

So, my list of the most populous states in 2030:

California
Texas
Florida
Georgia
New York
North Carolina
Virginia
New Jersey

[Scott5114]

Texas wouldn't have anywhere near the population it has if it weren't as large. Because of its size it encompasses more large cities than most states. Were it divided into Kansas-sized states, each of those would probably average about the population of one of the states that neighbors TX.

[english si]

Culture has stuff to do with it - where the culture is more neuvo-European (eg New England, NYC, LA, Bay Area for more extreme things) than middle-American, then birth rates - like in Europe, aren't really at replacement levels (and falling), so you need net migration to an area to keep population from shrinking.

However these areas are the big established cities where big stuff happens, so you'll get the migration masking this effect. However VT, NH, etc will hit their peak soon.

Old people retiring to where it doesn't get cold will also play a bigger effect as the boomers retire and old people live longer.

[TheStranger]

Texas wouldn't have anywhere near the population it has if it weren't as large. Because of its size it encompasses more large cities than most states. Were it divided into Kansas-sized states, each of those would probably average about the population of one of the states that neighbors TX.

At the same time, some of those Kansas-like states would have large populations due to the fact that there are four multi-million resident metro areas, all within the triangle formed by I-10, I-45, and I-35.

[Stephane Dumas]

We can wonder if the explotation of oil shales and gas shales in the North Dakota and Montana and elsewhere in the US will play a role for the following years? Saskatchewan had recently saw a increase of population since the oil companies beginned to exploit the Athabaska oil sands located in Saskatchewan and also there a oil shale formation known as Bakken formation who's beginned to be exploited.

[golden eagle]

Isn't that what's contributing to the growth of Fort McMurray, Alberta?

[Stephane Dumas]

Isn't that what's contributing to the growth of Fort McMurray, Alberta?

Yes, as well to a latter extent, the growth of Edmonton, Grande-Prairie, Calgary.