NFL (2024 Season)

[webny99]

If you are a fan of Nick Wright on Fox Sports ...

Nick Wright is probably the single most disliked sports media figure here in WNY because of his apparent distrust of Josh Allen. Bills Twitter even got involved, trolling him after the Chiefs game.

... he's been saying all year that Belichick has zero trust in Jones.

If Tom Brady was on the Patriots during that game they weren't going with three passes.  Josh Allen had 30 pass attempts during that game and completed 15 if I recall correct.  Suffice to say the Patriots went with a one dimensional safe offense likely because of Mac Jone's inexperience in cold weather and the Bills still couldn't find a way to win.

I couldn't disagree more. The Pats play calling had everything to do with their success in the run game and the fact that they were playing with the lead the entire game. And it worked, so there was zero reason to start calling passes. The only reason Brady or any other QB might have had more than three passes would be because of their ego, not because of the game plan. If the Bills could have scored to take the lead at any point, the Patriots would have had to start calling some passing plays. They only kept calling running plays because they had the lead and trusted their defense. Rookie or no rookie, 100 degrees or 0 degrees, it's just common sense that there was zero reason to be throwing passes in 50 mph winds when you have the lead. And that's why I put the loss 90% on the Bills offense for their lack of run game, lack of designed Allen runs, and red zone failures; and only about 10% on the defense, which did everything possible to put the offense in position to win.

[JayhawkCO]

If you are a fan of Nick Wright on Fox Sports ...

Nick Wright is probably the single most disliked sports media figure here in WNY because of his apparent dislike/distrust of Josh Allen. Bills Twitter even got involved after the Chiefs game.

I love Nick, but I was listening to him a long time ago when he was just the local guy in Kansas City.  I'm happy for his success while I obviously note the fact that he takes some more Bayless and Stephen A.- like lines on some topics.

... he's been saying all year that Belichick has zero trust in Jones.

If Tom Brady was on the Patriots during that game they weren't going with three passes.  Josh Allen had 30 pass attempts during that game and completed 15 if I recall correct.  Suffice to say the Patriots went with a one dimensional safe offense likely because of Mac Jone's inexperience in cold weather and the Bills still couldn't find a way to win.

I couldn't disagree more. The Pats play calling had everything to do with their success in the run game and the fact that they were playing with the lead the entire game. And it worked, so there was zero reason to start calling passes. The only reason Brady or any other QB might have had more than three passes would be because of their ego, not because of the game plan. If the Bills could have scored to take the lead at any point, the Patriots would have had to start calling some passing plays. They only kept calling running plays because they had the lead and trusted their defense. Rookie or no rookie, 100 degrees or 0 degrees, it's just common sense that there was zero reason to be throwing passes in 50 mph winds when you have the lead. And that's why I put the loss 95% on the Bills offense for their lack of run game and red zone failures, and only about 5% on the defense, which did everything possible to put the offense in position to win.

And this is one of the reasons why the Bills aren't on my list of teams that can win it all.  Their run game is abysmal minus Allen. 

But re: NE, you reeeallly don't think if, say, Kirk Cousins was the Pats QB, that they wouldn't have thrown some passes in that game?  It's not only that one game that makes me think Bill doesn't have a lot of faith.  There have been many other play calling choices this year.

[webny99]

I think Bill Belichick is old school in that he trusts the run game and the defense more than most "modern" NFL coaches. You could call that a lack of faith in Jones, but I see it as Belichick just doing what he thinks maximizes win probability. So no, I don't think Cousins or Brady or anyone else throws more than a handful of passes, unless like I said, it was because of their ego. In that one regard, a run heavy game plan is easier with a rookie QB that hasn't proved much yet.. and that gets in to a chicken and egg question. But ultimately I think the weather was a much bigger factor in the game plan than the QB was.

There were also times in 2019 when Belichick was very conservative and didn't trust his offense in key situations, which I think you could argue was part of the reason Brady ended up leaving. I just see it as a fundamental belief in defense more so than a lack of faith in the QB.

[MikieTimT]

I don't believe I've voiced my pure disdain for Browns fans (particularly their creepy attraction to Baker Mayfield no matter how bad he plays) before on this fourm. But that's been a thing for a good year now. Ever since the Browns became relevant again, they've become one of the most delusional groups of people I've ever seen. All of Baker Mayfield's "swagger" and "confidence" has translated to what has been an awful season. His numbers are what you would expect from a backup for a below average team, not a #1 overall pick starter for a team that is pretty solid outside of him. Anytime an actual statistical argument is used, some Browns fan will talk about how bad the team was before Baker. As if Baker is the reason why they've been mediocre over the past few years. Take Baker away from this team from the beginning of the season. With Keenum at quarterback the whole year, I'm guessing they would have the exact same record they do now. Jared Goff would do as much or more than Baker with this squad.

I know I said earlier in the thread (after the Browns/Chargers game maybe) that giving Baker a large contract would be a good decision. I rescind that take. Baker is dragging this team down, and no amount of "swagger", "confidence", or even unfunny commercials can change that.

There must be something about Baker Mayfield that causes this behavior, because people went apeshit over him in exactly the same way when he was at OU.

I used to troll this security guard at work by telling him these grandiose stories about how Baker Mayfield was about to get arrested, for unspecified reasons, usually by Robert Mueller coming out and cuffing him on the 50-yard line in the middle of the next game. This was all extremely silly and obviously made up, but the guy would get really mad to the point that he got red in the face and started yelling about how Baker Mayfield wasn't going to get arrested, and how I shouldn't say things like that, and how Baker Mayfield was the best quarterback ever (which shouldn't keep you from getting arrested if you actually did something wrong, but whatever).

Fayetteville PD would agree with you on that.  And probably tackled him during his arrest quicker than most Big 12 defenses did back in his OU days.

[Max Rockatansky]

If you are a fan of Nick Wright on Fox Sports ...

Nick Wright is probably the single most disliked sports media figure here in WNY because of his apparent dislike/distrust of Josh Allen. Bills Twitter even got involved after the Chiefs game.

I love Nick, but I was listening to him a long time ago when he was just the local guy in Kansas City.  I'm happy for his success while I obviously note the fact that he takes some more Bayless and Stephen A.- like lines on some topics.

... he's been saying all year that Belichick has zero trust in Jones.

If Tom Brady was on the Patriots during that game they weren't going with three passes.  Josh Allen had 30 pass attempts during that game and completed 15 if I recall correct.  Suffice to say the Patriots went with a one dimensional safe offense likely because of Mac Jone's inexperience in cold weather and the Bills still couldn't find a way to win.

I couldn't disagree more. The Pats play calling had everything to do with their success in the run game and the fact that they were playing with the lead the entire game. And it worked, so there was zero reason to start calling passes. The only reason Brady or any other QB might have had more than three passes would be because of their ego, not because of the game plan. If the Bills could have scored to take the lead at any point, the Patriots would have had to start calling some passing plays. They only kept calling running plays because they had the lead and trusted their defense. Rookie or no rookie, 100 degrees or 0 degrees, it's just common sense that there was zero reason to be throwing passes in 50 mph winds when you have the lead. And that's why I put the loss 95% on the Bills offense for their lack of run game and red zone failures, and only about 5% on the defense, which did everything possible to put the offense in position to win.

And this is one of the reasons why the Bills aren't on my list of teams that can win it all.  Their run game is abysmal minus Allen. 

But re: NE, you reeeallly don't think if, say, Kirk Cousins was the Pats QB, that they wouldn't have thrown some passes in that game?  It's not only that one game that makes me think Bill doesn't have a lot of faith.  There have been many other play calling choices this year.

The feeling I got was that almost any other quarterback in the same situation was getting three passes.  And yes, the Patriots did out coach the Bills playing a weird keep away game.  The Bills totally are at fault they couldn't stop an obviously run oriented offensive game plan and countered it with their ability to kind of still pass the ball.  I couldn't picture say the Chiefs, Packers and Buccaneers (unless it's against the Saints) being completely stone walled like that.  But that's part of why the Bills quite aren't the same level as those teams. 

[webny99]

It also couldn't have been more obvious that the team built to pass and stop the pass was at a disadvantage in 50 mph winds. The Bills spent the offseason bettering their passing game and pass rush, which paid off really well in the Chiefs game... not so much against the run-heavy Colts and Patriots.

Then again, those particular conditions were extreme and almost certainly aren't going to happen again, even in Buffalo, so I think people (including myself) tend to read into that one result way more than they should. The fact that we're still talking about that game instead of the one the Bills dominated two days ago, is proof of that.

[Max Rockatansky]

It also couldn't have been more obvious that the team built to pass and stop the pass was at a disadvantage in 50 mph winds. The Bills spent the offseason bettering their passing game and pass rush, which paid off really well in the Chiefs game... not so much against the run-heavy Colts and Patriots.

Then again, those particular conditions were extreme and almost certainly aren't going to happen again, even in Buffalo, so I think people (including myself) tend to read into that one result way more than they should. The fact that we're still talking about that game instead of the one the Bills dominated two days ago, is proof of that.

The fact that the Bills and Josh Allen couldn't overcome that scenario speaks to the fact that neither are elite.  Whether they will be eventually elite or just remain a Top 10 Team/QB remains to be seen.  The way it stands now the Bills aren't a serious Super Bowl contender.

[gr8daynegb]

I would be very surprised if the Super Bowl winner came from anyone outside this list:

NFC
Arizona
Green Bay
Tampa Bay

AFC
Kansas City
New England
Buffalo
Indianapolis

I'll relent and take Buffalo off of this list, but my Colts inclusion stands.

And now Arizona and New England are gone too.

I only have four teams I think can win it - Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Kansas City, or Indy.  I'll stick to my guns there. (I might reevaluate Tennessee if Henry comes back, but that's the only "honorable mention".)

I'd remove Cardinals from that list and insert the Cowboys.  While I believe the Cowboys history and McCarthy getting to ultra conservative at the wrong time will likely doom the Cowboys at some point, they have all the pieces there to make a run and their roster makeup is built to win a road game if needed.  For those that believe in conspiracy theories the Dallas Cowboys would be one of those teams people would say that the NFL wouldn't mind having in their biggest game(s).

[NWI_Irish96]

John Madden died at the age of 85. As far as I'm concerned, he's the gold standard for football announcing analysts. RIP Coach.

[webny99]

...
Then again, those particular conditions were extreme and almost certainly aren't going to happen again, even in Buffalo, so I think people (including myself) tend to read into that one result way more than they should. The fact that we're still talking about that game instead of the one the Bills dominated two days ago, is proof of that.

The fact that the Bills and Josh Allen couldn't overcome that scenario speaks to the fact that neither are elite.  Whether they will be eventually elite or just remain a Top 10 Team/QB remains to be seen.  The way it stands now the Bills aren't a serious Super Bowl contender.

You're just proving my point: that's an overreaction to a single result. And that would be the last result you'd want to overreact to because it's extremely unlikely that those same conditions will be encountered in the playoffs. It wasn't some sort of Patriots masterpiece or blowout victory, it was an extremely close game that could have gone either way, and the Patriots probably lose if not for a missed Bills field goal.

The Bills as a whole have their share of things to work on, including the run game, run defense, and offensive line play, but you can't re-watch the last two Bills games and tell me that those things aren't improving and Josh Allen isn't one of the best QB's in the league.

[Max Rockatansky]

...
Then again, those particular conditions were extreme and almost certainly aren't going to happen again, even in Buffalo, so I think people (including myself) tend to read into that one result way more than they should. The fact that we're still talking about that game instead of the one the Bills dominated two days ago, is proof of that.

The fact that the Bills and Josh Allen couldn't overcome that scenario speaks to the fact that neither are elite.  Whether they will be eventually elite or just remain a Top 10 Team/QB remains to be seen.  The way it stands now the Bills aren't a serious Super Bowl contender.

You're just proving my point: that's an overreaction to a single result. And that would be the last result you'd want to overreact to because it's extremely unlikely that those same conditions will be encountered in the playoffs. It wasn't some sort of Patriots masterpiece or blowout victory, it was an extremely close game that could have gone either way, and the Patriots probably lose if not for a missed Bills field goal.

The Bills as a whole have their share of things to work on, including the run game, run defense, and offensive line play, but you can't re-watch the last two Bills games and tell me that those things aren't improving and Josh Allen isn't one of the best QB's in the league.

Josh Allen may be a Top Five quarterback but he isn't Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rogers or Tom Brady.  The Bills aren't as good this year and haven't really given any indication that they will be.    I might be wrong but I kind feel like the Bills and Josh Allen are about as good as they are going to get.  I mean hey, I would be happy (as a Lions fan) competing for Division titles annually and being in the mix but I don't know if Bills fans will be. 

[NWI_Irish96]

...
Then again, those particular conditions were extreme and almost certainly aren't going to happen again, even in Buffalo, so I think people (including myself) tend to read into that one result way more than they should. The fact that we're still talking about that game instead of the one the Bills dominated two days ago, is proof of that.

The fact that the Bills and Josh Allen couldn't overcome that scenario speaks to the fact that neither are elite.  Whether they will be eventually elite or just remain a Top 10 Team/QB remains to be seen.  The way it stands now the Bills aren't a serious Super Bowl contender.

You're just proving my point: that's an overreaction to a single result. And that would be the last result you'd want to overreact to because it's extremely unlikely that those same conditions will be encountered in the playoffs. It wasn't some sort of Patriots masterpiece or blowout victory, it was an extremely close game that could have gone either way, and the Patriots probably lose if not for a missed Bills field goal.

The Bills as a whole have their share of things to work on, including the run game, run defense, and offensive line play, but you can't re-watch the last two Bills games and tell me that those things aren't improving and Josh Allen isn't one of the best QB's in the league.

Josh Allen may be a Top Five quarterback but he isn't Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rogers or Tom Brady.  The Bills aren't as good this year and haven't really given any indication that they will be.    I might be wrong but I kind feel like the Bills and Josh Allen are about as good as they are going to get.  I mean hey, I would be happy (as a Lions fan) competing for Division titles annually and being in the mix but I don't know if Bills fans will be. 

Josh Allen is averaging 270 passing yards/game and 40 rushing yards/game, behind what is at best a B-/C+ offensive line. Put him behind the offensive lines in Dallas, Tampa Bay, Kansas City or Green Bay and nobody is questioning his status.

Fans underrate the impact an offensive line has by an immeasurable amount.

[thspfc]

I would be very surprised if the Super Bowl winner came from anyone outside this list:

NFC
Arizona
Green Bay
Tampa Bay

AFC
Kansas City
New England
Buffalo
Indianapolis

I'll relent and take Buffalo off of this list, but my Colts inclusion stands.

And now Arizona and New England are gone too.

I only have four teams I think can win it - Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Kansas City, or Indy.  I'll stick to my guns there. (I might reevaluate Tennessee if Henry comes back, but that's the only "honorable mention".)

How about you put your money where your mouth is (figuratively speaking), and bet me on who gets further in the playoffs: Indy, Dallas, or the Rams. If they tie or one of Dallas/Rams gets further and the other not as far, it's a push and nothing happens. If both Dallas and the Rams get further or one gets further and the other the same as Indy, I win. If Indy gets further than both or the same as one and further than the other, you win.

Loser has to put something in their signature of the other person's choice (within forum rules of course).

You up?

[Max Rockatansky]

...
Then again, those particular conditions were extreme and almost certainly aren't going to happen again, even in Buffalo, so I think people (including myself) tend to read into that one result way more than they should. The fact that we're still talking about that game instead of the one the Bills dominated two days ago, is proof of that.

The fact that the Bills and Josh Allen couldn't overcome that scenario speaks to the fact that neither are elite.  Whether they will be eventually elite or just remain a Top 10 Team/QB remains to be seen.  The way it stands now the Bills aren't a serious Super Bowl contender.

You're just proving my point: that's an overreaction to a single result. And that would be the last result you'd want to overreact to because it's extremely unlikely that those same conditions will be encountered in the playoffs. It wasn't some sort of Patriots masterpiece or blowout victory, it was an extremely close game that could have gone either way, and the Patriots probably lose if not for a missed Bills field goal.

The Bills as a whole have their share of things to work on, including the run game, run defense, and offensive line play, but you can't re-watch the last two Bills games and tell me that those things aren't improving and Josh Allen isn't one of the best QB's in the league.

Josh Allen may be a Top Five quarterback but he isn't Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rogers or Tom Brady.  The Bills aren't as good this year and haven't really given any indication that they will be.    I might be wrong but I kind feel like the Bills and Josh Allen are about as good as they are going to get.  I mean hey, I would be happy (as a Lions fan) competing for Division titles annually and being in the mix but I don't know if Bills fans will be. 

Josh Allen is averaging 270 passing yards/game and 40 rushing yards/game, behind what is at best a B-/C+ offensive line. Put him behind the offensive lines in Dallas, Tampa Bay, Kansas City or Green Bay and nobody is questioning his status.

Fans underrate the impact an offensive line has by an immeasurable amount.

He still has to actually beat someone substantial.  To that end Josh Allen's situation isn't dissimilar to Dak Prescott or Matt Staff in that he has been very good (I would say Josh Allen is better than both ever were) but never quite great.  That won't change unless he and the Bills do something to beat the elite teams.  Losing games head to head against Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady isn't the best indicator he will surpass either.  But that just speaks to whatever that missing ingredient is that also came up in the Windy Game with the Patriots. 

I mean hey, I would love to see Josh Allen become a next level guy.  My wife is from Firebaugh and there is a huge local following second only to the Rams.  The Bills are a likeable team and fan base, it would be nice to actually see them get a Super Bowl title finally.

[webny99]

Well, the Bills did beat the Chiefs earlier this season, but they have yet to do it in the playoffs...

My personal thought is that anything short of a Super Bowl win would be a disappointment for the Bills. Sure, it's fun to be relevant in December, but after decades of mediocrity since the Jim Kelly days, the Bills finally have a solid QB again and it's time to finally get over the hump. Until that happens, the Bills will just be the team that lost four straight Super Bowls and haven't been back since.

[webny99]

Josh Allen is averaging 270 passing yards/game and 40 rushing yards/game, behind what is at best a B-/C+ offensive line. Put him behind the offensive lines in Dallas, Tampa Bay, Kansas City or Green Bay and nobody is questioning his status.

Fans underrate the impact an offensive line has by an immeasurable amount.

Certainly agreed, the Bills' O-line hasn't been as good as it was last year for whatever reason. The injuries haven't helped, but it's been an issue in all of their losses this year.

[JayhawkCO]

I would be very surprised if the Super Bowl winner came from anyone outside this list:

NFC
Arizona
Green Bay
Tampa Bay

AFC
Kansas City
New England
Buffalo
Indianapolis

I'll relent and take Buffalo off of this list, but my Colts inclusion stands.

And now Arizona and New England are gone too.

I only have four teams I think can win it - Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Kansas City, or Indy.  I'll stick to my guns there. (I might reevaluate Tennessee if Henry comes back, but that's the only "honorable mention".)

How about you put your money where your mouth is (figuratively speaking), and bet me on who gets further in the playoffs: Indy, Dallas, or the Rams. If they tie or one of Dallas/Rams gets further and the other not as far, it's a push and nothing happens. If both Dallas and the Rams get further or one gets further and the other the same as Indy, I win. If Indy gets further than both or the same as one and further than the other, you win.

Loser has to put something in their signature of the other person's choice (within forum rules of course).

You up?

For sure, once I see matchups.  (Not that it's a lot to risk if I'm wrong.)  And keep in mind, I'm not saying Indy will win the Superbowl.  I'm saying the other teams will not.  I'm not even necessarily saying that Indy will make it farther than the Rams or Cowboys.  I am saying that the Colts are better equipped to win four games than the other two are.

[TheHighwayMan3561]

I think Josh Allen's problem is less his talent, and more than he can't be their de facto RB as well as the QB if the team is going to go deep into January.

[thspfc]

Bears 14, Giants 13
Patriots 39, Jaguars 10
Rams 27, Ravens 17
Buccaneers 20, Jets 13
Bills 35, Falcons 17
Chiefs 33, Bengals 21
Titans 24, Dolphins 20
Raiders 23, Colts 17
Eagles 24, Washington 10
Chargers 22, Broncos 17
49ers 34, Texans 20
Lions 26, Seahawks 17
Cowboys 34, Cardinals 24
Saints 10, Panthers 3
Packers 38, Vikings 20
Steelers 28, Browns 14

My almost two-month run of being a Jets genius meets my two-week run of being a Buccaneers idiot. One of those streaks will be snapped.

I haven't missed a Dolphins pick since week 7, and this is the first time I'm picking them to lose since week 8.

The Raiders keep getting lucky with their opponents having a ton of injuries/a covid outbreak.

Can't wait for the NFC South battle of two offenses that have scored a combined two touchdowns in four games.

As long as the Steelers don't lose out, Tomlin's "fluky"  streak of non-losing seasons will continue.

I'm sticking the fork in the Falcons and Vikings. That brings the list to:

Lions
Texans
Panthers
Broncos
Jets
Jaguars
Washington
Giants
Bears
Saints
Raiders
Browns
Seahawks
Falcons
Vikings

The three un-forked teams currently outside the playoffs are the Chargers, Ravens, and Steelers. Chargers and Ravens are tied on record for the 7th seed. I'm waiting on the Steelers because it's not at all out of the question that they win out - they've already beaten the Browns and Ravens this season, and both those teams have been slumping recently.

[JayhawkCO]

I'll take Colts, Seahawks, Texans, and Browns.

[webny99]

Alright, time for my final fork update. I said I would do my final forks before Week 17 starts, and I'll stick to it even though I don't feel very good about it. There's 24 teams still alive, and forking 10 of them is no easy task, not to mention that there's a ton of games with major implications this week, so the picture could look totally different before Week 18. Even so, here goes:

Existing list of forked teams (bold=eliminated):
AFC: Jaguars, Jets, Texans, Dolphins, Steelers, Raiders, Broncos
NFC: Lions, Bears, Giants, Seahawks, Panthers, Falcons

Added 12/30/2021: Saints, Washington, Ravens ...
[rolls dice] Eagles
[rolls dice again] Bengals

No comment on those last two, but as for the other teams, I'm not worried about any of them except maybe the Dolphins, which ironically were one of the very first teams to be forked. Going from 1-7 to 8-7 is impressive, and it would be a heck of a fun story for them to steal the Patriots' playoff spot in Week 18... unfortunately, the Chargers ruined those odds, so the Patriots are probably in regardless. The Raiders also lurk as a potential spoiler candidate, but they'd have to win out. It could happen, but I'd be really surprised.

So here are my 2021 playoff teams (bold=clinched):
AFC: Chiefs, Titans, Bills, Browns, Colts, Patriots, Chargers
NFC: Cowboys, Packers, Rams, Bucs, Cardinals, 49ers, Vikings

[thspfc]

Kirk Cousins has Covid. RIP 2021 Vikings.

[JayhawkCO]

Kirk Cousins has Covid. RIP 2021 Vikings.

You held out more hope for my guys than I did if you're just writing them off now. 

[tchafe1978]

Kirk Cousins has Covid. RIP 2021 Vikings.

The Packers thank him for his belated Christmas gift: an easy win!

[thspfc]

Wentz and a few other Colts are off the Covid list, so my new prediction for that game is 27-20 Colts.