NFL (2024 Season)

[wanderer2575]

This means Amazon also has influence over the champion by forcing teams to play four (or even three) days after the previous game, lowering their chance of winning that game.

Amazon does not make that decision. The league has the final say.

Wait for it.

[brad2971]

This means Amazon also has influence over the champion by forcing teams to play four (or even three) days after the previous game, lowering their chance of winning that game.

Amazon does not make that decision. The league has the final say.

Wait for it.

If Amazon Prime ends up with that sort of power, Amazon will be forced through antitrust law to either spin off or sell its media content creation group (NFL production, MGM+, etc).

[thspfc]

This means Amazon also has influence over the champion by forcing teams to play four (or even three) days after the previous game, lowering their chance of winning that game.

Amazon does not make that decision. The league has the final say.

Wait for it.

Sure, no problem.

The preseason has officially begun, with the Hall of Fame game between the Browns and Jets.

And...both teams are officially out of the playoffs.

I would be shocked if neither make it.

[jeffandnicole]

This means Amazon also has influence over the champion by forcing teams to play four (or even three) days after the previous game, lowering their chance of winning that game.

Amazon does not make that decision. The league has the final say.

Wait for it.

Under this conspiracy theory, both teams are most likely playing 4 games after their last game. NFL rules peohibit a team playing Monday and Thursday in the same week. To give a division contender a disadvantage, they would not only need to play a team whose playoff odds won't be affected by playing Thursday night, but also won't gain an advantage by resting longer for their next game, which would most likely be the following Sunday or Monday.

[tchafe1978]

The preseason has officially begun, with the Hall of Fame game between the Browns and Jets. (As a Bears fan, I'm just glad that Aaron Rodgers is finally out of the NFC North!)

And now the Bears can have a new owner, Jordan Love!

[Alps]

This means Amazon also has influence over the champion by forcing teams to play four (or even three) days after the previous game, lowering their chance of winning that game.

Amazon does not make that decision. The league has the final say.

Wait for it.

Sure, no problem.

The preseason has officially begun, with the Hall of Fame game between the Browns and Jets.

And...both teams are officially out of the playoffs.

I would be shocked if either make it.

FTFY

[thspfc]

Four more weeks . . .

Regarding 2023 NFL in general, I think it's gonna be a great season. Probably not on the level of 2021, which, IMO, was the best ever.

League-wide, the biggest thing I'll be watching is whether passing stats (mostly sheer volume stats such as completions, attempts, yards, big plays, and TDs) continue to drop off for what would be the 3rd year in a row.

We're in a crazy paradox. QB is far and away the most important position and it seems that gap is only widening. WRs have separated themselves from the pack and are definitively #2. The running back market is in shambles. Yet passing is actually declining on paper, while 2022 was literally the best year ever for rushing.

Instead of trying to predict every team's record, I just power ranked them 1-32 and used that to determine my playoff teams. This year seems wide open, with a lot of teams I think will be hovering around .500.


To start off, there are 9 teams that I think are locks to win 10+ games. I'll explain the rankings that might be "hot takes" . . .

1. Bengals: they're more complete than Kansas City. They split with the Chiefs last year, but the only thing anyone remembers is that KC got the AFC title game.

2. Chiefs: quietly, the Chiefs have one of the weakest WR rooms in the NFL. I know, I know, losing Tyreek Hill made basically no difference, but last year they at least had Smith-Schuster as a guy who was consistently able to beat man coverage. Kadarius Toney has the skillset, but hasn't proven that he's a legit threat as a high-volume receiver, rather than just a gadget guy like he was last year. MVS is the best-known commodity, and he's a solid deep threat, but I doubt he'll top 60 catches. Obviously Kelce is still there but they're going to need significant production from other guys as well.

(... I just wrote a paragraph about how light they are at WR, and still I have them as the 2nd-best team in the league. That tells you all you need to know about Patrick Mahomes.)

3. Eagles

Also, the Eagles are eliminated. I can already see the future: the Hurts novelty wears off midway through 2021. He finishes 2021 with 21 touchdowns and 16 interceptions or some below average statline like that. The media babies him for two more years, focusing on a four game stretch when he was good instead of the rest of his career, before it becomes apparent that he's not the answer, and the cycle repeats itself with a different quarterback. I will be revisiting this post in 2023.

4. Bills

5. Ravens: obviously the question mark is injuries, particulary for Lamar, but the whole team has been bit by the injury bug the last couple years. Maybe this falls in tinfoil hat territory, but I geniunely believe that finally getting the bag will allow Lamar to focus more on self-preservation, and he'll tweak his playstyle to avoid injury while still being a top 10 quarterback. If they can stay healthy I think they'll have one of the best offenses in the league. This is the best group of receivers Lamar has ever had, and I expect this to be his best year as a passer. We know they'll be able to run the ball. The defense is solid, really stepping up in Lamar's absence last year.

6. 49ers

7. Cowboys: too much to say, will post my "tHiS iS oUr YeAr" rant later.

8. Jets: they went 7-10 with a combination of Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson, Mike White, and injured Mike White playing quarterback. Surely Rodgers alone is worth at least 3 additional wins as he replaces those guys.

9. Seahawks: had IMO the best 2023 draft as of now, getting both a potentially elite corner and a potentially elite receiver. The Metcalf/Lockett/JSN trio will be a handful for every defense they line up against. If Witherspoon lives up to his top 5 pick status, between him and Woolen, they'll be able to run straight up cover 1 single high safety, with Quandre Diggs deep and Jamal Adams moving up into the box - next to Bobby Wagner. In short, the secondary is nasty.

I'm confident that Geno was not a one-hit wonder. His stats slipped towards the end of the year, but that was a product of playing better teams. Accuracy and efficiency are the two most sustainable quarterback traits, and those two things are what made him successful last year.


Moving down into teams I expect to be over .500, but a losing season wouldn't shock me:

10. Browns: Watson returning to his old form (on the football field, mind you) is all it'll take for this team to be a contender. They're down here because that happening is certainly not a given.

11. Lions

12. Vikings: we all know they're going to regress in terms of the win column, the question is how much. Ed Donatell's scheme was suicidal for that defense, but at the same time it's certainly not the most talented unit in the league either. New DC Brian Flores will help, but ultimately the defense is still the big concern.

13. Jaguars: during their 6 game win streak they beat the . . .
- dead Titans twice
- Cowboys
- Zach Wilson/Chris Streveler (who?) Jets
- Texans
- Chargers doing Chargers things

I'm not sold on this team elevating to the level of the AFC's big three. To me they're in the middle of the pack with a bajillion others, but the difference is Jacksonville is the only decent team in a terrible division.

14. Broncos: without question the team I'm most interested to watch this year. I'll leave it at that 

15. Chargers: I see this team as Jacksonville with a worse coach and a tougher division. The teams they beat on their late-season 4 game win streak had a combined record of 3-20 from week 13 onward.

16. Saints: easy division.


Teams I expect to be below .500, but a winning season wouldn't shock me:

17. Patriots: snooze

18. Steelers: snooze

19. Dolphins: Tua's health is the obvious scapegoat here, but even if he stays healthy, this team is not the juggernaut that most seem to think it is. Baltimore massively blew coverages on back-to-back drives allowing Miami to come back and win that game. Buffalo in week 3 was, statistically, a maybe-once-a-year-occurence-in-the-NFL type fluke. They scraped past the Steelers during their 2-6 start, then exploded offensively in four straight games against defenses ranked 32nd, 30th, 29th, and 15th (Browns). All things considered, Cleveland was their best win of the year, by far. When December rolled around things fell off a cliff. Despite the score being close, they were clearly rolled over by a mediocre Chargers team. They kept it close with Buffalo, their only good offensive showing post-November, but other than that, it was ugly.

But, I say that a winning season wouldn't shock me because 1) they were 8-4 when Tua played and 2) they did score a lot of points in those 8 W's. I might end up looking like an idiot here. But I also might not.

20. Packers: with a strong run-first offense, sufficient play from Love, and a defense that plays up to expectations, I could see this team sneaking into the playoffs. I do think Love will be decent. Nothing short of him being elite will justify Green Bay drafting him when they did, but that's not his fault.


Teams I'm very confident will be below .500:

21. Raiders: Garoppolo is not as bad as everyone says.

22. Giants: Jones eclipsed 230 yards passing 3 times last year: once against the Lions who would've let my grandma throw for 300, and twice against the Vikings who would've let my grandma throw for 350. He broke 25 completions three times, 40 attempts twice. 17 touchdowns in 18 games.

Now, he was quite productive running the ball. But signing him to a $40m/year extension based on just one year of slightly-above-replacement-level play is quite the decision. They were in a tough spot because they (understandably) didn't take his 5th-year. But there's no way he was going to get $40m/year from any other team.

If Jones' agents weren't willing to go below 40, they should've franchise tagged him and just bit the bullet on a long-term deal for Saquon. Yes, long-term deals for running backs are not in style, but Saquon is arguably the most valuable RB to any team right now, and even if it didn't end up being worth it, it would've been a much cheaper mistake. As far as I'm concerned, since Jones' rookie year which was alright, we've seen two bad years and one okay year. That's not enough evidence to pay him like he's the future of the franchise.

23. Rams

24. Titans

25. Bears: not on the Justin Fields hype train at all. Classic example of a guy whose insane highlights fool people into thinking he's a lot better than he is. Hasn't shown that he's a capable NFL passer yet, much less a franchise QB-level passer. What's for certain is that there are no more excuses. He has the weapons now.

26. Cardinals: they're not even that bad. They're going to start poorly with Kyler out, but once he gets back they'll win some games. Through Hopkins' six-game suspension, Marquise Brown was on pace to be top 10 in receptions, yards, and TDs.

27. Commanders

28. Panthers

29. Buccaneers

30. Falcons

31. Colts

32. Texans: fewest total wins in the league the last 3 years and nothing about last year or the offseason makes me think that will change. Maybe Ryans is the permanent solution after back-to-back one-and-dones, but speculating about new and unproven head coaches is pointless to me. Stroud is transitioning from an Ohio State team that was more talented than 90% of its opponents to a Texans team that is more talented than 0% of its opponents. That won't be easy.




So according to that list, here are my playoff teams:

AFC
1. Bengals (1)
2. Chiefs (2)
3. Bills (4)
4. Jaguars (13)
5. Ravens (5)
6. Jets (8)
7. Browns (10)

I think the Chiefs or Bills will actually grab the 1 seed over the Bengals because the AFCN is a bloodbath. Heck, it was a bloodbath last year - every team split their series with every other team - and one could argue that all 4 teams will be better this year. Similarily, the Jets could take the 5 seed over the Ravens because 1) AFCN and 2) the Jets face a 4th-place schedule while the Ravens face a 2nd-place schedule.

NFC
1. Eagles (3)
2. 49ers (6)
3. Lions (11)
4. Saints (16)
5. Cowboys (7)
6. Seahawks (9)
7. Vikings (12)

I wouldn't be surprised if the Cowboys, Seahawks, or Vikings won their respective divisions.

Cincinnati is my Super Bowl pick. Burrow gets both regular season and Super Bowl MVP.

Fired coaches
Brandon Staley (LAC)
Josh McDaniels (LV)
Arthur Smith (ATL)
Todd Bowles (TB)
Ron Rivera (WAS)
Matt Eberflus (CHI)
Andy Reid (KC)

[jlam]

Not a pretty game for C.J. Stroud in his NFL debut. All eyes are on Mills for the starting job.

[KeithE4Phx]

25. Bears: not on the Justin Fields hype train at all. Classic example of a guy whose insane highlights fool people into thinking he's a lot better than he is. Hasn't shown that he's a capable NFL passer yet, much less a franchise QB-level passer. What's for certain is that there are no more excuses. He has the weapons now.

This is Fields' make-or-break year.  He always shows his talent, but he has yet to produce.  The rest of the team is getting better, so we'll find out if he becomes The Second Coming of Jim McMahon or remains The Second Coming of Bobby Douglass. 

26. Cardinals: they're not even that bad. They're going to start poorly with Kyler out, but once he gets back they'll win some games. Through Hopkins' six-game suspension, Marquise Brown was on pace to be top 10 in receptions, yards, and TDs.

I expect nothing less than tanking the season from the Same Old Cardinals.  Nobody yet knows when Murray will be back, and even when he does return, I no longer expect much.  He's deja vu Jay Cutler all over again:  A million dollar arm and a two cent brain, and now with a ten cent knee to go along with it.  I hope I'm wrong, but when you combine a fragile QB, a new coach, a new GM, and a hot, rancid pile of Bidwills, it doesn't look good.

Fired coaches
Brandon Staley (LAC)
Josh McDaniels (LV)
Arthur Smith (ATL)
Todd Bowles (TB)
Ron Rivera (WAS)
Matt Eberflus (CHI)
Andy Reid (KC)

Eberfluss isn't going anywhere this season.  Arthur Smith may be an early firing.  But Andy Reid?  Glad you crossed him out.  He's got a 50-50 chance of going back to the Super Bowl, as long as Mahomes stays healthy.

[Hot Rod Hootenanny]

Four more weeks . . .

Regarding 2023 NFL in general, I think it's gonna be a great season. Probably not on the level of 2021, which, IMO, was the best ever.

League-wide, the biggest thing I'll be watching is whether passing stats (mostly sheer volume stats such as completions, attempts, yards, big plays, and TDs) continue to drop off for what would be the 3rd year in a row.

We're in a crazy paradox. QB is far and away the most important position and it seems that gap is only widening. WRs have separated themselves from the pack and are definitively #2. The running back market is in shambles. Yet passing is actually declining on paper, while 2022 was literally the best year ever for rushing.

3. Eagles

Also, the Eagles are eliminated. I can already see the future: the Hurts novelty wears off midway through 2021. He finishes 2021 with 21 touchdowns and 16 interceptions or some below average statline like that. The media babies him for two more years, focusing on a four game stretch when he was good instead of the rest of his career, before it becomes apparent that he's not the answer, and the cycle repeats itself with a different quarterback. I will be revisiting this post in 2023.

So you're the Colin Cowherd of AAroads.

[Ted$8roadFan]

The Houston Texans defeated the New England Patriots in preseason action last night, 20-9.

[thspfc]

25. Bears: not on the Justin Fields hype train at all. Classic example of a guy whose insane highlights fool people into thinking he's a lot better than he is. Hasn't shown that he's a capable NFL passer yet, much less a franchise QB-level passer. What's for certain is that there are no more excuses. He has the weapons now.

This is Fields' make-or-break year.  He always shows his talent, but he has yet to produce.  The rest of the team is getting better, so we'll find out if he becomes The Second Coming of Jim McMahon or remains The Second Coming of Bobby Douglass. 

26. Cardinals: they're not even that bad. They're going to start poorly with Kyler out, but once he gets back they'll win some games. Through Hopkins' six-game suspension, Marquise Brown was on pace to be top 10 in receptions, yards, and TDs.

I expect nothing less than tanking the season from the Same Old Cardinals.  Nobody yet knows when Murray will be back, and even when he does return, I no longer expect much.  He's deja vu Jay Cutler all over again:  A million dollar arm and a two cent brain, and now with a ten cent knee to go along with it.  I hope I'm wrong, but when you combine a fragile QB, a new coach, a new GM, and a hot, rancid pile of Bidwills, it doesn't look good.

Fired coaches
Brandon Staley (LAC)
Josh McDaniels (LV)
Arthur Smith (ATL)
Todd Bowles (TB)
Ron Rivera (WAS)
Matt Eberflus (CHI)
Andy Reid (KC)

Eberfluss isn't going anywhere this season.  Arthur Smith may be an early firing.  But Andy Reid?  Glad you crossed him out.  He's got a 50-50 chance of going back to the Super Bowl, as long as Mahomes stays healthy.

Andy Reid was a joke. If Fields doesn't improve significantly I think they clean house and Eberflus is gone too.

Four more weeks . . .

Regarding 2023 NFL in general, I think it's gonna be a great season. Probably not on the level of 2021, which, IMO, was the best ever.

League-wide, the biggest thing I'll be watching is whether passing stats (mostly sheer volume stats such as completions, attempts, yards, big plays, and TDs) continue to drop off for what would be the 3rd year in a row.

We're in a crazy paradox. QB is far and away the most important position and it seems that gap is only widening. WRs have separated themselves from the pack and are definitively #2. The running back market is in shambles. Yet passing is actually declining on paper, while 2022 was literally the best year ever for rushing.

3. Eagles

Also, the Eagles are eliminated. I can already see the future: the Hurts novelty wears off midway through 2021. He finishes 2021 with 21 touchdowns and 16 interceptions or some below average statline like that. The media babies him for two more years, focusing on a four game stretch when he was good instead of the rest of his career, before it becomes apparent that he's not the answer, and the cycle repeats itself with a different quarterback. I will be revisiting this post in 2023.

So you're the Colin Cowherd of AAroads.

Yes

[The Ghostbuster]

I just watched the Green Bay Packers defeat the Cincinatti Bengals 36-19. Green Bay only allowed one touchdown, a 43-yard pick-six by Tycen Anderson. Former USFL Championship MVP Alex McGough didn't play much; he handed the ball off a few times, and had a fumble recovered by Cincinatti. Green Bay's new kicker Anders Carlson missed two extra points, but a preseason win is a preseason win. I am looking greatly forward to next week's game against New England at Lambeau Field.

[KeithE4Phx]

Green Bay's new kicker Anders Carlson missed two extra points, but a preseason win is a preseason win. I am looking greatly forward to next week's game against New England at Lambeau Field.

If he does that next week, he'll be Green Bay's former kicker. 

[Big John]

Green Bay's new kicker Anders Carlson missed two extra points, but a preseason win is a preseason win. I am looking greatly forward to next week's game against New England at Lambeau Field.

If he does that next week, he'll be Green Bay's former kicker. 

There are already a lot of calls by Packer fans to bring back Crosby.

[jgb191]

Not a pretty game for C.J. Stroud in his NFL debut. All eyes are on Mills for the starting job.

I agree with keeping Davis Mills as our incumbent starter for the first couple weeks; I'd rather start with experience and then gradually work CJ into the game over the course of the season.

Maybe Ryans is the permanent solution after back-to-back one-and-dones, but speculating about new and unproven head coaches....

We already know that DeMeco, even as a rookie HC, is an upgrade over the veteran Lovie Smith.  DeMeco was a born leader and it showed when he played for the Texans; he has re-energized our Texans fanbase.  I'm expecting our best record so far this decade (five or more wins) in 2023.  Remember we've never had the worst record in the league since 2013 and this year will be no different; even in the last three seasons other teams had less wins than the Texans did.

[Alps]

Green Bay's new kicker Anders Carlson missed two extra points, but a preseason win is a preseason win. I am looking greatly forward to next week's game against New England at Lambeau Field.

If he does that next week, he'll be Green Bay's former kicker. 

There are already a lot of calls by Packer fans to bring back Crosby.

Yeah I don't see why he's an FA right now

[Big John]

Dalvin Cook signs with the Jets.  Ezekiel Elliott signs with the Patriots.

[webny99]

Sad news: The 2023 season will march on without FiveThirtyEight's NFL predictions and coverage, as their entire sports division was axed back in May as part of a major transition at ABC News. Needless to say I really liked their prediction model and relied on it heavily in this thread and elsewhere. It served as a great baseline from which to make predictions and analyze the season as it played out. The sports prediction models were one-of-a-kind in the sports industry and basically irreplaceable IMO, but if anyone has any suggestions for similar sites, please be free to share.

I'm planning to share some quick-hitting thoughts on this season a little later, but just wanted to share the bad news first.

[thspfc]

Sad news: The 2023 season will march on without FiveThirtyEight's NFL predictions and coverage, as their entire sports division was axed back in May as part of a major transition at ABC News. Needless to say I really liked their prediction model and relied on it heavily in this thread and elsewhere. It served as a great baseline from which to make predictions and analyze the season as it played out. The sports prediction models were one-of-a-kind in the sports industry and basically irreplaceable IMO, but if anyone has any suggestions for similar sites, please be free to share.

I'm planning to share some quick-hitting thoughts on this season a little later, but just wanted to share the bad news first.

Sad. But I wasted way too much time on that website last fall so maybe it's a blessing in disguise for me.

[mgk920]

Sad news: The 2023 season will march on without FiveThirtyEight's NFL predictions and coverage, as their entire sports division was axed back in May as part of a major transition at ABC News. Needless to say I really liked their prediction model and relied on it heavily in this thread and elsewhere. It served as a great baseline from which to make predictions and analyze the season as it played out. The sports prediction models were one-of-a-kind in the sports industry and basically irreplaceable IMO, but if anyone has any suggestions for similar sites, please be free to share.

I'm planning to share some quick-hitting thoughts on this season a little later, but just wanted to share the bad news first.

Sad. But I wasted way too much time on that website last fall so maybe it's a blessing in disguise for me.

I'm thinking that they became economically and functionally obsolete with the current rise in the sports books.



Mike

[JayhawkCO]

Sad news: The 2023 season will march on without FiveThirtyEight's NFL predictions and coverage, as their entire sports division was axed back in May as part of a major transition at ABC News. Needless to say I really liked their prediction model and relied on it heavily in this thread and elsewhere. It served as a great baseline from which to make predictions and analyze the season as it played out. The sports prediction models were one-of-a-kind in the sports industry and basically irreplaceable IMO, but if anyone has any suggestions for similar sites, please be free to share.

I'm planning to share some quick-hitting thoughts on this season a little later, but just wanted to share the bad news first.

I was bummed to see this too. I really liked their Premier League predictions and Global Soccer Club Rankings.

[webny99]

^ Their NBA predictions were good too. Similar to the NFL predictions but even more in-depth with RAPTOR (which replaced CARMELO) and other metrics for detailed player stats and analytics.

[webny99]

Anyways... here goes...

AFC
Such a tough conference to predict this season. I know we said that last year too, but it's even more true this year. Seven playoff spots just isn't enough given how loaded the conference is across the board. Like it or not, a few really good teams are going to miss out on the playoffs. It's easy to see three playoff teams from the North, East, or West, but I would be stunned if the Jags don't win the AFC South and even more stunned if there are multiple playoff teams from the South.

That said, I ended up going with two playoff teams from every division but the South and forking the entire South except for the Jags. It seems crazy, but I'm just that certain that the wild cards will be out of reach for anyone in the South and the Jags are too much more talented to let anyone except maybe the Titans hang around in the division race.

Here are my predicted conference rankings:

Playoffs
1. Chiefs
2. Bills
3. Jags
4. Ravens
5. Jets
6. Bengals
7. Chargers
On the bubble
8. Browns
9. Dolphins
10. Steelers
11. Patriots
12. Raiders
13. Broncos
Forked
14. Titans
15. Colts
16. Texans





NFC
This is not an easy conference to parse either, but for all the opposite reasons. The NFC is so mediocre that basically everyone has a shot at the playoffs, so the teams contending for the final wild cards might not be that great, similar to last year. This tends to make the wild card race less intense, but the division races could be interesting in all four divisions.

There's a decent chance we get two playoff teams from both the East and West; that would leave one spot up for grabs between the stew of mediocrity that is the NFC North and South. In that case, I'm actually reasonably certain that two South teams would make it - not because they're great, but because they can feast on an extremely easy schedule while the North teams beat each other up. So...

Here are my predicted conference rankings:

Playoffs
1. Cowboys
2. 49ers
3. Saints
4. Lions
5. Eagles
6. Seahawks
7. Falcons
On the bubble
8. Commanders
9. Giants
10. Vikings
11. Packers
12. Bears
Forked
13. Rams
14. Panthers
15. Bucs
16. Cardinals

[CoreySamson]

Might as well post my W-L predictions:

AFC East:
1. Bills 13-4 (y)
2. Dolphins 9-8 (x)
3. Jets 9-8
4. Patriots 6-11

AFC North:
1. Bengals 13-4 (y)
2. Ravens 13-4 (x)
3. Steelers 9-8
4. Browns 7-10

AFC South:
1. Jaguars 10-7 (y)
2. Titans 8-9
3. Texans 7-10
4. Colts 6-11

AFC West:
1. Chiefs 14-3 (z)
2. Broncos 10-7 (x)
3. Chargers 8-9
4. Raiders 5-12

NFC East:
1. Eagles 14-3 (z)
2. Cowboys 10-7 (x)
3. Giants 8-9
4. Commanders 5-12

NFC North:
1. Lions 12-5 (y)
2. Vikings 10-7 (x)
3. Bears 5-12
4. Packers 5-12

NFC South:
1. Saints 10-7 (y)
2. Buccaneers 6-11
3. Falcons 5-12
4. Panthers 4-13

NFC West:
1. 49ers 12-5 (y)
2. Seahawks 10-7 (x)
3. Rams 7-10
4. Cardinals 2-15