Hurricane Dorian

[US 89]

I'm getting sick of the constant meteorologist-bashing that seems to be popular on this forum. These people have a bachelor's degree or higher in atmospheric science and clearly know what they're doing. Weather forecasting is not an exact science and meteorologists do a lot more than just read what the model spits out. While models do a lot of the hard work, a meteorologist's job nowadays involves comparing model outputs, taking into account the inherent biases of each model and also small-scale effects (such as terrain) that affect local weather but are too small to be resolved by large-scale models.

As for this hurricane specifically: the NHC and local WFOs are caught between a rock and a hard place. If they forecast the storm to miss Florida and it winds up taking a more western track, Florida will be unprepared and royally fucked. If they forecast a landfall and the storm eventually misses to the east, everyone who prepared for the storm will be pissed. In either case, they run the risk of losing the public's confidence, which results in nobody heeding evacuation orders in the future. It doesn't help when you have 10 different models with 10 different ideas of exactly what's going to happen -- especially in a case such as this, where a very small change in track results in a huge change in observed effects. Cape Canaveral might get off with tropical storm force winds and some rain, but if the storm deviates just a bit further west (which is definitely in the realm of possibility), they might experience category 4 winds.

[goobnav]

Ok, being a resident of NC and going through 6 of these messes is not easy but, to those saying and earthquake is better, STFU!! 

Hurricanes:

1. Have a better chance of being predicted and the problems can be mostly prepared for a faster recovery.

2. Allow people, mostly, to evacuate, the ones that don't leave choose to stay and are warned they are on their own by law enforcement and given their last chance to leave, they have the means to leave to better shelter.

3. Can still change paths 24 hrs prior to hitting hurricane Fran was predicted in '96 to miss the Triangle area up until the day it made landfall and it hit us squarely.

4.  When you can predict an earthquake a week in advance, call Guinness and start playing the lottery.

5.  If another Westerner thanks they either don't have to deal with it or glad they moved back West.  Don't worry we'll be fine and when your earthquake hits we'll be thankful we don't live that constant state of fear.

Rant over, those that can, please post the closing for those outside the area and keeps us in your thoughts.  Those here, keep watching and do what is necessary to keep you and your loved ones safe.

[LM117]

Yeah, I grew up in eastern NC and after feeling the 2011 earthquake that originated in Virginia (I was living in Farmville), I'd rather deal with a hurricane. At least with a hurricane you have an advance warning that you're gonna get fucked.

[hotdogPi]

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/video/dorian-is-continuing-to-grow-and-strengthen

When looking at this, this could be similar to Irene and Matthew. I hate these hurricanes because they close school and we end up having to go 30 days straight without any breaks. I'm in high school, and it's my last year.

It's worse in college. Lost days aren't made up, which means that everything has to be taught more quickly.

[froggie]

I'd just like to throw this out there and invite the meteorologist-bashers to explain these formulas...

[Rothman]

I'd just like to throw this out there and invite the meteorologist-bashers to explain these formulas...

That's the meteorologist's job to use their formulas to determine their forecasts.  Even if one cannot explain the math behind the models, one can certainly determine when their forecasts are not supported by reality.

[goobnav]

Yeah, I grew up in eastern NC and after feeling the 2011 earthquake that originated in Virginia (I was living in Farmville), I'd rather deal with a hurricane. At least with a hurricane you have an advance warning that you're gonna get fucked.

Was here for that too!!  That was unreal and totally surprising!!

[tolbs17]

Seems like the hurricane itself is going more in the ocean than on land so i'm sure we would be alright, but we are still going to get hit hard.

[US 89]

I'd just like to throw this out there and invite the meteorologist-bashers to explain these formulas...

That's the meteorologist's job to use their formulas to determine their forecasts.  Even if one cannot explain the math behind the models, one can certainly determine when their forecasts are not supported by reality.

And they do. Often times some models will produce solutions that are clearly unrealistic. (One extreme example: one run of the NAM blew this year's Hurricane Barry up to a sub-870mb monster over the Gulf of Mexico.) Meteorologists have to identify these obviously bad runs, throw them out, look at what they determine to be the reasonable solutions, identify a general pattern, and make a forecast based on it.

[Stephane Dumas]

Let's hope then the Port St. Lucie nuclear power plant will hold on. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article234556862.html

[Beltway]

The highest winds projected for Cocoa, FL are on Wednesday for 41 mph.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/3be52649f587423c53950070bb4fc14d74dd48d4c0b4a9d676483d15160c555d

[froggie]

^ I wouldn't put much stock in that winds forecast.  It wouldn't take much of a nudge in the storm track to increase (or conversely decrease) those winds.

[Brandon]

I've never experienced a hurricane, given I've lived most of my life in Wisconsin. I would probably be terrified if I was unable to evacuate from the path of one.

I echo those sentiments, having lived in Chicago and Los Angeles, where hurricanes are foreign to the locals.

Meanwhile, may I remind everyone of the snowstorms and blizzards we get?  Like this:


I'm certain Floridians would be downright terrified of that.

Anyway, they have hurricanes with rain, wind, and storm surge.  We have snowstorms with wind, ice, and of course, 15 to 25 inches of snow dumped overnight.  It balances.

[vdeane]

Aside from when Buffalo got 7 feet of snow all at once, I've never heard of a snow storm destroying houses.  I've never heard of anyone needing to evacuate due to one, either.  Just don't drive on the roads during the worst of it, get out your shovel, and wait for the plows and salt to make the roads passable.  Much nicer than evacuating and having a hurricane destroy your home.

[tolbs17]

https://weather.com/news/news/2019-09-02-georgia-south-carolina-north-carolina-hurricane-dorian

Hope everyone's ok!

[Beltway]

I wouldn't put much stock in that winds forecast.  It wouldn't take much of a nudge in the storm track to increase (or conversely decrease) those winds.

No, but I have been watching Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Vero Beach and Cocoa to see what the local forecasts are, as the storm heads north, to get an idea of the forecasted local effects.  NHC takes a very high level view where you see this blob off the coast.

[LM117]

I've never experienced a hurricane, given I've lived most of my life in Wisconsin. I would probably be terrified if I was unable to evacuate from the path of one.

I echo those sentiments, having lived in Chicago and Los Angeles, where hurricanes are foreign to the locals.

Meanwhile, may I remind everyone of the snowstorms and blizzards we get?  Like this:


I'm certain Floridians would be downright terrified of that.

They would probably handle it as well as Raleigh, NC did in 2014:

[ozarkman417]

Living in Missouri my whole life, the only Tropical Storm/Hurricane I've been in was Andrea back in 2013. I guess it's a win-win when all the tornadoes decide to miss you.

[tolbs17]

And replying to my comment i'm guessing these are what the colors mean.

Light green - <1 inch

Green - 1-3 inches

Dark green - 3-5 inches

Yellow - 5-8 inches

Orange - 8-12 inches

Red - 1-2 feet!

Purple.... >2 feet!!!

[US 89]

I wouldn't put much stock in that winds forecast.  It wouldn't take much of a nudge in the storm track to increase (or conversely decrease) those winds.

No, but I have been watching Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Vero Beach and Cocoa to see what the local forecasts are, as the storm heads north, to get an idea of the forecasted local effects.  NHC takes a very high level view where you see this blob off the coast.

Which is why I much prefer this page, which expresses the probability that winds of a given strength will be experienced at a certain location, both during a certain time period and cumulative. That product is also made in a graphical form for thresholds at 34 kt (39 mph), 50 kt (58 mph), and 64 kt (74 mph) thresholds.

Also, weather.com probably isn't a great source for actual observed conditions. If you want the latest observations from weather stations, https://mesowest.utah.edu/ is one of the best websites out there at least for US locations.

[Beltway]

No, but I have been watching Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Vero Beach and Cocoa to see what the local forecasts are, as the storm heads north, to get an idea of the forecasted local effects.  NHC takes a very high level view where you see this blob off the coast.

Which is why I much prefer this page, which expresses the probability that winds of a given strength will be experienced at a certain location, both during a certain time period and cumulative. That product is also made in a graphical form for thresholds at 34 kt (39 mph), 50 kt (58 mph), and 64 kt (74 mph) thresholds.

Both too complicated with those tables and too fuzzy with those graphics.

Just provide a simple forecast hour by hour such as the link I posted, and you can see current wind speeds at the city, which are being reported locally.

Also, weather.com probably isn't a great source for actual observed conditions. If you want the latest observations from weather stations, https://mesowest.utah.edu/ is one of the best websites out there at least for US locations.

NOAA NHC has been inaccurate many times as well.

[1995hoo]

I've never experienced a hurricane, given I've lived most of my life in Wisconsin. I would probably be terrified if I was unable to evacuate from the path of one.

I echo those sentiments, having lived in Chicago and Los Angeles, where hurricanes are foreign to the locals.

Meanwhile, may I remind everyone of the snowstorms and blizzards we get?  Like this:


I'm certain Floridians would be downright terrified of that.

They would probably handle it as well as Raleigh, NC did in 2014:

Heh. During the so-called Blizzard of '96, Durham didn't plow the streets. Reason: The county only had one snowplow and it broke down.

[LM117]

I've never experienced a hurricane, given I've lived most of my life in Wisconsin. I would probably be terrified if I was unable to evacuate from the path of one.

I echo those sentiments, having lived in Chicago and Los Angeles, where hurricanes are foreign to the locals.

Meanwhile, may I remind everyone of the snowstorms and blizzards we get?  Like this:


I'm certain Floridians would be downright terrified of that.

They would probably handle it as well as Raleigh, NC did in 2014:

Heh. During the so-called Blizzard of '96, Durham didn't plow the streets. Reason: The county only had one snowplow and it broke down.

Sounds about right.

[froggie]

Also, weather.com probably isn't a great source for actual observed conditions. If you want the latest observations from weather stations, https://mesowest.utah.edu/ is one of the best websites out there at least for US locations.

As a meteorologist, I concur with this.  Though it's also possible to specifically pull official weather stations from TWC if you know where to look.  The layman may not know the difference between an official station and a hobby station, though.

[Buck87]