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Author Topic: Tropical cyclone tracking thread  (Read 117124 times)

cabiness42

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #800 on: August 30, 2021, 07:27:33 AM »

I have cousins in LaPlace that are staying put. Not even this storm can get them to evacuate.

Hope they are doing ok... Laplace appears to be where the worst of the flooding is

Yeah, the eye passed just west of LaPlace so they got a huge amount of rain and wind. Sounds like everybody is OK but there is extensive property damage.
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cabiness42

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #801 on: August 30, 2021, 10:14:13 AM »

Watching a local news broadcast from a NO station. Their station was incapacitated, so they were airing the feed from a Baton Rouge station while the NO station's crew headed to BR to broadcast from their studio. They could not find a passable route via the south/west sides of Lake Ponchartrain and had to go around the east/north sides to get to BR.
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kenarmy

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #802 on: August 30, 2021, 11:38:15 AM »

If Nora would've shifted a few miles west, couldn't it have been the first tropical cyclone to reach Arizona?
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Alex

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #803 on: August 30, 2021, 01:27:03 PM »

If Nora would've shifted a few miles west, couldn't it have been the first tropical cyclone to reach Arizona?

Although rare, it has happened before. The most recent occurrence was another Hurricane Nora in 1997.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/nora1997.html

Quote
Weakening to a tropical storm, Nora crossed into the Desert Southwest of the United States.
Sustained winds of tropical storm force were recorded at Yuma.  Although weakening to a
tropical depression as it moved across California and Arizona, the circulation aloft did not
have time to spin down.

Track: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/nora97trk.gif

US 89

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #804 on: August 31, 2021, 07:10:11 PM »

Tulane posted this to their Twitter on Sunday night:

Quote
Idaís path deviated from what forecasters had predicted as recently as yesterday morning. However, we are confident we have taken every precaution and that we will weather this storm as we have others in the past. Please visit http://Tulane.edu/emergency  for more information.

That statement is just wrong. The NHC's forecasts were arguably as close to perfect as you are going to get with the forecast models we have now. Forecasts from as early as Thursday showed a hurricane impacting southern Louisiana. Attempting to hide their poor planning by blaming meteorologists really isn't a good look for an otherwise well-known, well-respected university.

route56

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #805 on: September 01, 2021, 10:11:27 AM »

Meanwhile, we've got two more TDs in the Atlantic, and there's a wave still over Africa that the NHC is currently predicting a 70 percent chance of Development between 2 and 5 days out. We may just knock out Julian, Kate, and Larry in quick succession, and get the infamous "Cape Verde" storm.

Done, done, and done. Julian and Kate barely made it to Tropical Storm status, and were no threat to land. That potential Cape Verde storm has indeed become TS Larry. Itís too soon to tell if this will stay out to sea.
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oscar

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #806 on: September 03, 2021, 12:20:12 PM »

I'm in NW Louisiana right now, since my plans to return home via SE Louisiana were foiled by Hurricane Ida. Parts of US 190 I wanted to clinch between Baton Rouge and Covington were still closed by flooding or downed power lines, last I checked.

Yesterday evening, on my way to Shreveport, I drove US 167 to Alexandria. That took me past the huge emergency "megashelter" along US 167 south of Alexandria, built after Hurricane Katrina to house large numbers of evacuees (especially those with medical or other special needs) from future hurricanes. The parking lots were full of buses, and some private vehicles. Looks like a lot of evacuees are staying put for now (as advised by the governor), and holding off on trying to return to their homes in SE Louisiana.
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route56

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #807 on: September 04, 2021, 11:39:44 PM »

Looks like Larry will be a "fish spinner." Maybe Bermuda will get some rain from it...
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bing101

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #808 on: September 07, 2021, 04:37:02 PM »

Looks like Larry will be a "fish spinner." Maybe Bermuda will get some rain from it...
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/hurricane-larry-update-1.6166584
Looks like Canada's Newfoundland area is going to get hit by Hurricane Larry.
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CoreySamson

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #809 on: September 12, 2021, 11:30:48 PM »

Yuck. I do not like the look of Nicholas. Itís looking like it will slow down or stall somewhere around the Houston area. Seems like a combination of 2007 Humberto and Harvey. Currently Iím in the bullseye for both the highest rainfall and the highest winds. Could get over a foot of rain, but I feel like somewhere within 20 miles of my house could get over 2 feet. Here are some scenarios for the Houston area:

Scenario #1:
A weaker Nicholas takes a more westerly path into Corpus Christi and stalls out inland, dumping almost Harvey or Allison levels of rain on Houston. Looking less likely.

Scenario #2:
A stronger (high end TS or CAT 1 storm) Nicholas skirts the Texas coast, making landfall somewhere between Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. Less rain, but still a lot. Looking more likely as of the past few hours.

CoreySamson

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #810 on: September 13, 2021, 11:08:51 PM »

Now under a Hurricane Warning from Nicholas. The eyewall figures to move into my town in a couple of hours.

CoreySamson

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #811 on: September 14, 2021, 01:37:38 PM »

The northern eyewall of Nicholas went directly over my town at about 1am this morning. I woke up around that time and wondered why it was so quiet. All is fine here, but several friends have downed trees and there is minor wind damage around town. I estimate the winds gusted to about 65 or 70 mph at my house last night. A rain gauge in my neighborhood recorded about 9 inches of rain, but luckily no flooding in the area except for a couple streets in Houston and the surge along the coast. Safe to say this could have been much, much worse for the Houston metro but I'm worried about the rain it will dump on Louisiana, especially Lake Charles.

snowc

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #812 on: September 17, 2021, 01:46:06 PM »


We may have two NEW storms, Odette and Peter!  :-D
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Scott5114

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #813 on: September 17, 2021, 07:51:13 PM »

Do note that that is a live graphic, so it is now showing Odette and two Invest storms which could become Peter and Rose.
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CoreySamson

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #814 on: September 17, 2021, 09:33:59 PM »

The northern eyewall of Nicholas went directly over my town at about 1am this morning. I woke up around that time and wondered why it was so quiet. All is fine here, but several friends have downed trees and there is minor wind damage around town. I estimate the winds gusted to about 65 or 70 mph at my house last night. A rain gauge in my neighborhood recorded about 9 inches of rain, but luckily no flooding in the area except for a couple streets in Houston and the surge along the coast. Safe to say this could have been much, much worse for the Houston metro but I'm worried about the rain it will dump on Louisiana, especially Lake Charles.
You know, in the grand scheme of things Nicholas really wasn't all that bad considering how bad it could've been if a variable shifted. Neither Houston nor Louisiana flooded, it didn't spend enough time over open water to really get strong, and the extent of the damage is mostly in Brazoria and Matagorda counties. That being said, some of my friends still don't have power and the wind damage near the coast was pretty bad for a low-level hurricane.

allniter89

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #815 on: September 18, 2021, 01:17:21 AM »

The northern eyewall of Nicholas went directly over my town at about 1am this morning. I woke up around that time and wondered why it was so quiet. All is fine here, but several friends have downed trees and there is minor wind damage around town. I estimate the winds gusted to about 65 or 70 mph at my house last night. A rain gauge in my neighborhood recorded about 9 inches of rain, but luckily no flooding in the area except for a couple streets in Houston and the surge along the coast. Safe to say this could have been much, much worse for the Houston metro but I'm worried about the rain it will dump on Louisiana, especially Lake Charles.
You know, in the grand scheme of things Nicholas really wasn't all that bad considering how bad it could've been if a variable shifted. Neither Houston nor Louisiana flooded, it didn't spend enough time over open water to really get strong, and the extent of the damage is mostly in Brazoria and Matagorda counties. That being said, some of my friends still don't have power and the wind damage near the coast was pretty bad for a low-level hurricane.
I'm glad LA finally caught a break. They sure deserve it with the summer they've had.
I hope the red one stays out of the Gulf. They've said it had a high chance to develop since it came off Africa.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2021, 01:20:32 AM by allniter89 »
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snowc

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #816 on: September 18, 2021, 11:32:14 AM »

Do note that that is a live graphic, so it is now showing Odette and two Invest storms which could become Peter and Rose.
Thanks for the hatnote, Scott! :clap:
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ET21

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #817 on: September 19, 2021, 02:21:18 PM »

Odette might have a second coming after a waste of a classification imo.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #818 on: November 09, 2021, 08:56:18 AM »

...which could become Peter and Rose.

That's a weird way to get into the Baseball Hall of Fame.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #819 on: November 09, 2021, 11:06:24 AM »

That's a weird way to get into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Thereís certainly a non-zero chance for a tropical cyclone to impact Cooperstown.

Weíve gone through the main list once again; will we see Adria make an appearance before the season is over?
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snowc

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #820 on: November 10, 2021, 09:42:38 AM »

Dag nabbit!
Adria is gonna form!  :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :pan: :no: :banghead:
Quote
1. Showers and thunderstorms have decreased near the center of a
hurricane-force non-tropical low pressure system located a little
over 500 miles east-northeast of Bermuda.  While a large area of
shower activity associated with a frontal boundary persists to the
northeast of the low's center, the system has not yet acquired
sufficient characteristics to be classified as a subtropical
cyclone.  However, some additional development is still possible
during the next day or two while upper-level winds become a little
more favorable, and a subtropical storm could form during this time.
Thereafter, the system is forecast to move over colder water and be
absorbed by a larger non-tropical low. Additional information on
this system, including hurricane force wind warnings, can be found
in High Seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Scott5114

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #821 on: November 10, 2021, 02:12:05 PM »

Unless it doesn't...50% chance means it's equally likely to not happen.
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snowc

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #822 on: November 10, 2021, 02:48:49 PM »

Unless it doesn't...50% chance means it's equally likely to not happen.
Lets hope to pray that we don't use Adria.  :-D
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US 89

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #823 on: November 10, 2021, 09:54:19 PM »

Unless it doesn't...50% chance means it's equally likely to not happen.
Lets hope to pray that we don't use Adria.  :-D

Why? Potential future Adria is not going to hurt anyone but fish spinning out in the middle of the ocean with no land in sight.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #824 on: February 05, 2022, 01:59:38 AM »

Looks like we have our first nasty tropical cyclone of 2022. Madagascar is about to get slammed by Cat 4-equivalent Cyclone Batsirai. You donít see many storms that bad in that part of the world.

 


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