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Tropical cyclone tracking thread

Started by CNGL-Leudimin, May 07, 2015, 11:08:01 AM

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Stephane Dumas




Hurricane Rex

Olivia has winds of 55 mph now.

That violates normal proceedings being either 50 mph or 60 mph because of knots rounding.

Personal feeling: I think Isaac could turn north just outside of the 5 day forcast like some models are saying. If it gets into the gulf, it could become a hurricane again.

LG-TP260

ODOT, raise the speed limit and fix our traffic problems.

Road and weather geek for life.

Running till I die.

index

Here's something you don't see every day: Contraflow traffic on I-26, I believe, being led by the SCHP.


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Counties traveled

D-Dey65



ET21

We're telling our customers to have any pickup and deliveries done with truck carriers to be finished by 6pm Thursday for North and South Carolinas. Might have to extend that into eastern GA.
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Clinched:
IL: I-88, I-180, I-190, I-290, I-294, I-355, IL-390
IN: I-80, I-94
SD: I-190
WI: I-90, I-94
MI: I-94, I-196
MN: I-90

SP Cook

Dozens of out-of-region and contractor electric trucks on the highway today.  Assume they will hold short somewhere in Piedmont NC and head in. 

WV Turnpike, again, caught unprepared.  Bridge deck work near MM 20 caused hours long back up, as did inadequately staffed toll booths, as lots of people are heading in this direction from the coastal south.  Gov stepped in and ordered temporary emergency work and all lanes on the bridge should be open by noon today.  Also ordered all toll lanes staffed (state does not have the authority to waive tolls), and granted a statewide over-weight permit to any truck hauling relief supplies south. 

For a time last night, turnpike was refusing entry at Princeton, ordering traffic onto Corridor Q, US 460 East (whcih re-enters Virginia for about a mile and a half) then onto the 2 lane mountainous US 219 at Rich Creek, VA, and then I-64 West at Lewisburg.  Which would under ordinary circumstances triple or quadruple travel time to Beckley.  Route is now signed as a "suguested alternate" until noon today.


Beltway

Quote from: SP Cook on September 12, 2018, 09:43:24 AM
WV Turnpike, again, caught unprepared.  Bridge deck work near MM 20 caused hours long back up, as did inadequately staffed toll booths, as lots of people are heading in this direction from the coastal south.  Gov stepped in and ordered temporary emergency work and all lanes on the bridge should be open by noon today.  Also ordered all toll lanes staffed (state does not have the authority to waive tolls), and granted a statewide over-weight permit to any truck hauling relief supplies south. 

The West Virginia Turnpike needs 6 lanes thruout, IMHO.  Very busy highway steadily getting busier.  Yeah, I know it would be very expensive construction, especially the northern part.
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LM117

#359
Quote from: Beltway on September 12, 2018, 10:04:06 AM
Quote from: SP Cook on September 12, 2018, 09:43:24 AM
WV Turnpike, again, caught unprepared.  Bridge deck work near MM 20 caused hours long back up, as did inadequately staffed toll booths, as lots of people are heading in this direction from the coastal south.  Gov stepped in and ordered temporary emergency work and all lanes on the bridge should be open by noon today.  Also ordered all toll lanes staffed (state does not have the authority to waive tolls), and granted a statewide over-weight permit to any truck hauling relief supplies south. 

The West Virginia Turnpike needs 6 lanes thruout, IMHO.  Very busy highway steadily getting busier.  Yeah, I know it would be very expensive construction, especially the northern part.

I agree. I last drove it in 2013 when I went to my cousin's high school graduation in Michigan and noticed heavier traffic than there used to be.
“I don’t know whether to wind my ass or scratch my watch!” - Jim Cornette

Interstate 69 Fan

Hurricane Warnings May be extended into Southern SC and GA within the hour.

I-26 is contraflowed. A lot of the models aren’t saying good things. A ton of catastrophic flooding is going to follow, and we are still looking at a Cat 4 landfall. After replacing its eyewall, Florence is back up to intensifying... and could be all the way to landfall.
Apparently I’m a fan of I-69.  Who knew.

LM117

#361
Quote from: D-Dey65 on September 12, 2018, 12:20:06 AM
I have a bad feeling this is going to make Matthew look like a mere nuisance.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/matthew-river-flooding-carolina-records

What makes it worse is that much of eastern NC still hasn't fully recovered from Matthew. Recovery funds have only recently started being distributed and there has been a LOT of anger towards the NC Emergency Management director, Mike Sprayberry, for the slow response (or lack of). He held a meeting with residents in Wayne County a few months ago and they ripped him a new asshole.

And now comes Florence...
“I don’t know whether to wind my ass or scratch my watch!” - Jim Cornette

Hurricane Rex

Quote from: D-Dey65 on September 12, 2018, 12:20:06 AM
I have a bad feeling this is going to make Matthew look like a mere nuisance.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/matthew-river-flooding-carolina-records
That seems to he a pattern recently: Ivan to Katrina, Irene to Sandy, now Matthew to Irma/this.

LG-TP260

ODOT, raise the speed limit and fix our traffic problems.

Road and weather geek for life.

Running till I die.

Hurricane Rex

Quote from: Interstate 69 Fan on September 12, 2018, 10:25:34 AM
Hurricane Warnings May be extended into Southern SC and GA within the hour.

I-26 is contraflowed. A lot of the models aren't saying good things. A ton of catastrophic flooding is going to follow, and we are still looking at a Cat 4 landfall. After replacing its eyewall, Florence is back up to intensifying... and could be all the way to landfall.
Right now though, the wind field is expanding and causing the pressure drop, which might be worse news in this case than getting the storm up to 150 mph.

LG-TP260

ODOT, raise the speed limit and fix our traffic problems.

Road and weather geek for life.

Running till I die.

D-Dey65

When I drove up in March 2017, I stopped in Ridgeland, SC to get some shots of the old NRHP-listed Sinclair gas station, an old school in Tillman, SC, and anything else I found interesting. While at the Sinclair gas station, which is now a local chamber of commerce/museum, I asked the young lady working there how the city survived Matthew. Being part of the "Low Country," I assumed they were as beaten up as Lumberton, NC, but she told me they didn't have it that bad.



Beltway

Quote from: Interstate 69 Fan on September 12, 2018, 10:25:34 AM
A lot of the models aren't saying good things. A ton of catastrophic flooding is going to follow, and we are still looking at a Cat 4 landfall.

Actually NOAA NHC is now saying 100 mph, which is low Cat 2, which would also lessen the storm surge levels.
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bing101


Beltway

Quote from: bing101 on September 12, 2018, 04:13:33 PM
Apparently FLorence is now a Category 3 storm according to this update.

It is now, but it is still about 48 hours from landfall.  NOAA NHC is saying 100 mph at landfall, which is low Cat 2.
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http://www.capital-beltway.com

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    (Robert Coté, 2002)

Brandon

Quote from: Beltway on September 12, 2018, 04:02:21 PM
Quote from: Interstate 69 Fan on September 12, 2018, 10:25:34 AM
A lot of the models aren't saying good things. A ton of catastrophic flooding is going to follow, and we are still looking at a Cat 4 landfall.

Actually NOAA NHC is now saying 100 mph, which is low Cat 2, which would also lessen the storm surge levels.

Possibly.  It also depends on what her pressure is, and what time of day she comes ashore - low tide or high tide.  If we get lucky, then she comes ashore with a higher pressure at low tide.
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US 89

Quote from: Brandon on September 12, 2018, 05:52:35 PM
Quote from: Beltway on September 12, 2018, 04:02:21 PM
Quote from: Interstate 69 Fan on September 12, 2018, 10:25:34 AM
A lot of the models aren't saying good things. A ton of catastrophic flooding is going to follow, and we are still looking at a Cat 4 landfall.

Actually NOAA NHC is now saying 100 mph, which is low Cat 2, which would also lessen the storm surge levels.

Possibly.  It also depends on what her pressure is, and what time of day she comes ashore - low tide or high tide.  If we get lucky, then she comes ashore with a higher pressure at low tide.

Over the past few days, what's happened to Florence is that while the actual maximum windspeed is lower, the size of the storm has increased dramatically. Currently, the hurricane-force wind field is 70 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend nearly 200 miles from the center. That's going to mean more areas get a storm surge, and probably won't really decrease the intensity of that surge; parts of NC are still expecting a surge of greater than 13 feet.

If Florence were a category 4 hurricane but half its current size, it probably would do less damage overall than a category 2 Florence of the current size.

paulthemapguy

Quote from: US 89 on September 12, 2018, 07:25:21 PM

Over the past few days, what's happened to Florence is that while the actual maximum windspeed is lower, the size of the storm has increased dramatically. Currently, the hurricane-force wind field is 70 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend nearly 200 miles from the center. That's going to mean more areas get a storm surge, and probably won't really decrease the intensity of that surge; parts of NC are still expecting a surge of greater than 13 feet.

If Florence were a category 4 hurricane but half its current size, it probably would do less damage overall than a category 2 Florence of the current size.

I wanted to echo most of this.  Florence has grown larger in storm energy and in areal coverage.  In addition, Florence is estimated to be a cat. 2 when the circulation center makes landfall.  Florence's expanse will be over land for a considerable amount of time before that particular thing happens, probably including the eye wall, the part of the storm with the most intense conditions.
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Beltway

Quote from: US 89 on September 12, 2018, 07:25:21 PM
Over the past few days, what's happened to Florence is that while the actual maximum windspeed is lower, the size of the storm has increased dramatically. Currently, the hurricane-force wind field is 70 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend nearly 200 miles from the center. That's going to mean more areas get a storm surge, and probably won't really decrease the intensity of that surge; parts of NC are still expecting a surge of greater than 13 feet.

Where do you get that wind field size data from?  Richmond-Petersburg is about 200 miles from the closest projected track, and the NHC graphics show a very low probability of TS force winds.  Local forecasts show a highest wind speed over the next 5 days of 18 mph.
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Baloney is a reserved word on the Internet
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US 89

Quote from: Beltway on September 12, 2018, 08:48:15 PM
Where do you get that wind field size data from?  Richmond-Petersburg is about 200 miles from the closest projected track, and the NHC graphics show a very low probability of TS force winds.  Local forecasts show a highest wind speed over the next 5 days of 18 mph.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/122354.shtml?

Mapmikey

Quote from: Beltway on September 12, 2018, 08:48:15 PM
Quote from: US 89 on September 12, 2018, 07:25:21 PM
Over the past few days, what's happened to Florence is that while the actual maximum windspeed is lower, the size of the storm has increased dramatically. Currently, the hurricane-force wind field is 70 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend nearly 200 miles from the center. That's going to mean more areas get a storm surge, and probably won't really decrease the intensity of that surge; parts of NC are still expecting a surge of greater than 13 feet.

Where do you get that wind field size data from?  Richmond-Petersburg is about 200 miles from the closest projected track, and the NHC graphics show a very low probability of TS force winds.  Local forecasts show a highest wind speed over the next 5 days of 18 mph.

Weather channel on tv (can't find it on their website) said TS winds extend 170 miles out from the center.  NHC puts the cumulative probability of Richmond getting a 39 mph sustained wind at 31% (for comparison the value is 77% for Rocky Mount NC which also has a 22% chance of getting a sustained 58 mph wind).  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/122037.shtml?

Beltway

"Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds now extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)."

"UP TO", as in maximum.  Tropical storms often have irregular wind fields, so the maximum and minimum boundaries can very greatly.

Also that is NOW and not necessarily ~48 hours from now.
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