NFL (2024 Season)

[JayhawkCO]

Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, and Allen are good because they're good at playing football. They're not good because they were drafted in the top 10. That's simply a by-product.

They're not good because they were drafted in the top 10, of course.  If someone decided to draft me in the top 10, it would not give me Herbert's cannon all of a sudden.  But obviously there is a higher likelihood of top 10 drafted QBs to be good in the NFL because they a) have already demonstrated skill in college and b) highly paid scouts that are pretty good at this thought they would be good in the pros also.



Also, keep in mind that the reason that teams with good, young QBs tend to be better is because those young QBs are on their rookie deals and the team has a lot more salary cap space to surround that QB with more talent.

[thspfc]

Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, and Allen are good because they're good at playing football. They're not good because they were drafted in the top 10. That's simply a by-product.

They're not good because they were drafted in the top 10, of course.  If someone decided to draft me in the top 10, it would not give me Herbert's cannon all of a sudden.  But obviously there is a higher likelihood of top 10 drafted QBs to be good in the NFL because they a) have already demonstrated skill in college and b) highly paid scouts that are pretty good at this thought they would be good in the pros also.



Also, keep in mind that the reason that teams with good, young QBs tend to be better is because those young QBs are on their rookie deals and the team has a lot more salary cap space to surround that QB with more talent.

Mahomes and Allen are not on rookie deals anymore. Herbert, Burrow, and Lamar won't be for much longer, a year at most.

Here is what I am saying: "The AFC is better than has better quarterbacks" is a valid argument for the AFC being better than the NFC; "The AFC has higher drafted quarterbacks" is not. It does not matter when these players were drafted; it matters how good they are. Draft position is irrelevant to how good a player is at football at THIS point in time. If there were two equal players with one being a first round pick and the other a fourth round pick, the first round pick is not better. They're still equal.

I understand that players are drafted out of college based on how good scouts think they will be. However, none of that matters once everyone has seen how good a player actually is in the NFL. If he's a great NFL player, he's a great NFL player. If he's not, he's not.

[JayhawkCO]

If there were two equal players with one being a first round pick and the other a fourth round pick, the first round pick is not better. They're still equal.

I don't think anyone is trying to dispute that. 

Out of curiosity, how do you have your QBs ranked?  (If it's upthread and I missed it, my apologies.)

[thspfc]

If there were two equal players with one being a first round pick and the other a fourth round pick, the first round pick is not better. They're still equal.

I don't think anyone is trying to dispute that. 

Out of curiosity, how do you have your QBs ranked?  (If it's upthread and I missed it, my apologies.)

1. Mahomes
2. Rodgers
3. Russ
4. Burrow
5. Herbert
6. Allen
7. Stafford
8. Dak
9. Carr
10. Cousins
11. Kyler
12. Lamar
13. Ryan
14. Tannehill
15. Mac
16. Goff

I am aware that most of those are first round picks; I do not care at all, because trying to use the number of first rounders in my rankings against me completely misses the point.

Anyways, with those rankings, I think the gap between #1 and #6 is tiny. Those are the six that I would consider "elite". Then #7 to #13 would be the "good" tier, with Stafford a cut above the rest of them. Then "average" starts with #14 and continues into the 20s.

[JayhawkCO]

Just for discussion's sake, and since you and I always agree  , here's my top 16.

1. Mahomes
2. Rodgers
3. Allen
4. Herbert
5. Burrow
6. Prescott
7. Watson (I don't know if he'll ever play again, but he is obviously talented, if not a scumbag)
8. Lamar
9. Stafford
10. Murray
11. Carr
12. Wilson
13. Cousins
14. Tannehill
15. Ryan
16. Mayfield

[webny99]

If there were two equal players with one being a first round pick and the other a fourth round pick, the first round pick is not better. They're still equal.

I don't think anyone is trying to dispute that. 

Of course no one's disputing that if it's predetermined that they're equal players.

But that's not how it works in real life. In real life, the average first round pick is more likely to succeed than the average fourth round pick, because you have to draft a player before you know for sure if they're good or not. That's why we have scouts, and that's why higher picks are more valuable - because the players most likely to be good are drafted first. And yes, it's partly self-fulfilling, because higher picks tend to get more chances.

[thspfc]

If there were two equal players with one being a first round pick and the other a fourth round pick, the first round pick is not better. They're still equal.

I don't think anyone is trying to dispute that. 

Of course no one's disputing that if it's predetermined that they're equal players.

But that's not how it works in real life. In real life, the average first round pick is more likely to succeed than the average fourth round pick, because you have to draft a player before you know for sure if they're good or not. That's why we have scouts, and that's why higher picks are more valuable - because the players most likely to be good are drafted first. And yes, it's partly self-fulfilling, because higher picks tend to get more chances.

This is all correct; none of it matters in this discussion.

[thspfc]

Just for discussion's sake, and since you and I always agree  , here's my top 16.

1. Mahomes
2. Rodgers
3. Allen
4. Herbert
5. Burrow
6. Prescott
7. Watson (I don't know if he'll ever play again, but he is obviously talented, if not a scumbag)
8. Lamar
9. Stafford
10. Murray
11. Carr
12. Wilson
13. Cousins
14. Tannehill
15. Ryan
16. Mayfield

Two things: why is Russ that low and why is Baker that high?

[JayhawkCO]

Just for discussion's sake, and since you and I always agree  , here's my top 16.

1. Mahomes
2. Rodgers
3. Allen
4. Herbert
5. Burrow
6. Prescott
7. Watson (I don't know if he'll ever play again, but he is obviously talented, if not a scumbag)
8. Lamar
9. Stafford
10. Murray
11. Carr
12. Wilson
13. Cousins
14. Tannehill
15. Ryan
16. Mayfield

Two things: why is Russ that low and why is Baker that high?

Russ' deep ball looked like trash this year.  Mayfield isn't bad when healthy, which he certainly wasn't this year.  I couldn't honestly find someone to put over him.

[webny99]

Since Kyler Murray is on these top-16 lists....  Here's my 3 craziest predictions for 2022:

1. Kyler Murray will return to MLB
2. Jimmy G will start for the Bucs Week 1
3. The Giants will make the playoffs

[thspfc]

Just for discussion's sake, and since you and I always agree  , here's my top 16.

1. Mahomes
2. Rodgers
3. Allen
4. Herbert
5. Burrow
6. Prescott
7. Watson (I don't know if he'll ever play again, but he is obviously talented, if not a scumbag)
8. Lamar
9. Stafford
10. Murray
11. Carr
12. Wilson
13. Cousins
14. Tannehill
15. Ryan
16. Mayfield

Two things: why is Russ that low and why is Baker that high?

Russ' deep ball looked like trash this year.  Mayfield isn't bad when healthy, which he certainly wasn't this year.  I couldn't honestly find someone to put over him.

Interesting how you attribute Mayfield's struggles to an injury that forced him to miss two games, yet don't mention Russ's injury that forced him to miss three games.

Russ played three bad games last year: against the Packers in week 10, Cardinals in week 11, and Rams in week 15. I don't think it's coincidence that the first two of those three were his first two games back from an injury that he had rehabbed from in record time.

[JayhawkCO]

A) I think Russ is miles better than Baker.  I just needed a 16th and couldn't find anyone better.
B) I think those other 11 QBs are better than Russ.
C) It's okay to disagree.

[thspfc]

A) I think Russ is miles better than Baker.  I just needed a 16th and couldn't find anyone better.
B) I think those other 11 QBs are better than Russ.
C) It's okay to disagree.

Of course it's okay to disagree, I just don't understand your side of this.

[ethanhopkin14]

Since Kyler Murray is on these top-16 lists....  Here's my 3 craziest predictions for 2022:

1. Kyler Murray will return to MLB Wow!
2. Jimmy G will start for the Bucs Week 1  and Tom Brady will play week 1 for the 49ers
3. The Giants will make the playoffs absolutely not

[Max Rockatansky]

Just for discussion's sake, and since you and I always agree  , here's my top 16.

1. Mahomes
2. Rodgers
3. Allen
4. Herbert
5. Burrow
6. Prescott
7. Watson (I don't know if he'll ever play again, but he is obviously talented, if not a scumbag)
8. Lamar
9. Stafford
10. Murray
11. Carr
12. Wilson
13. Cousins
14. Tannehill
15. Ryan
16. Mayfield

Interesting that you have the QB from the Super Bowl winning team that low.  I think Herbert has the potential to be better than Matt Stafford but he sure wasn't this last year, I'd place Burrow ahead of Herbert for now.  Dak Prescott hasn't really done anything much of consequence in the playoffs to be rated so highly.  Watson was a top ten talent before his recent business, but I don't know about now.  I would put Russel Wilson ahead of Derek Carr but I generally agree with the rest. 

[thspfc]

Just for discussion's sake, and since you and I always agree  , here's my top 16.

1. Mahomes
2. Rodgers
3. Allen
4. Herbert
5. Burrow
6. Prescott
7. Watson (I don't know if he'll ever play again, but he is obviously talented, if not a scumbag)
8. Lamar
9. Stafford
10. Murray
11. Carr
12. Wilson
13. Cousins
14. Tannehill
15. Ryan
16. Mayfield

Interesting that you have the QB from the Super Bowl winning team that low.  I think Herbert has the potential to be better than Matt Stafford but he sure wasn't this last year, I'd place Burrow ahead of Herbert for now.  Dak Prescott hasn't really done anything much of consequence in the playoffs to be rated so highly.  Watson was a top ten talent before his recent business, but I don't know about now.  I would put Russel Wilson ahead of Derek Carr but I generally agree with the rest.

Wilson below Kyler in particular is what I don't understand at all. Kyler is a shorter, faster, more nimble, and not as good at passing version of Wilson from 5 years ago. And Wilson 5 years ago was not as good as today's Wilson.

[Alps]

Just for discussion's sake, and since you and I always agree  , here's my top 16.

1. Mahomes
2. Rodgers
3. Allen
4. Herbert
5. Burrow
6. Prescott
7. Watson (I don't know if he'll ever play again, but he is obviously talented, if not a scumbag)
8. Lamar
9. Stafford
10. Murray
11. Carr
12. Wilson
13. Cousins
14. Tannehill
15. Ryan
16. Mayfield

Interesting that you have the QB from the Super Bowl winning team that low.  I think Herbert has the potential to be better than Matt Stafford but he sure wasn't this last year, I'd place Burrow ahead of Herbert for now.  Dak Prescott hasn't really done anything much of consequence in the playoffs to be rated so highly.  Watson was a top ten talent before his recent business, but I don't know about now.  I would put Russel Wilson ahead of Derek Carr but I generally agree with the rest.

Wilson below Kyler in particular is what I don't understand at all. Kyler is a shorter, faster, more nimble, and not as good at passing version of Wilson from 5 years ago. And Wilson 5 years ago was not as good as today's Wilson.

We talking Russell or Zach?

[JayhawkCO]

Re: Stafford and his ranking.  I just don't feel like he makes throws that ever make me say "wow".  Yeah, he won the Super Bowl, but that was way more due to Aaron Donald than it was to Matthew Stafford.

Re: Kyler.  He does things that I think are special.  His ability to run obviously limits how defenses can control him.

Re: Russell.  The last two years that offense hasn't done nearly as much as it should with Metcalf and Lockett.  He takes a lot of sacks that I don't feel he needs to.  His deep ball in particular this past year (and yes, I know he was injured) looked terrible.  I just tend to think he's on the downside of his career.

[webny99]

Re: Stafford and his ranking.  I just don't feel like he makes throws that ever make me say "wow".

Not even this one?

[JayhawkCO]

It's a good throw.  I've seen all of the guys I have ranked above him do that too.

Also re: Stafford, I've seen a lot of talk lately of him now being a lock HOFer.  Has he ever once been one of the top 5 QBs in the league?  I personally feel he's more in the Hall of Very Good.

[ilpt4u]

Also re: Stafford, I've seen a lot of talk lately of him now being a lock HOFer.  Has he ever once been one of the top 5 QBs in the league?  I personally feel he's more in the Hall of Very Good.

If Stafford gets into the HoF, then the Ford family needs to be forced to sell the Lions

HoF QB & WR can't win a Division Title nor even a single Playoff Game together? In the era when the rules were seriously changing to favor the passing game? GTFOH

[Max Rockatansky]

Also re: Stafford, I've seen a lot of talk lately of him now being a lock HOFer.  Has he ever once been one of the top 5 QBs in the league?  I personally feel he's more in the Hall of Very Good.

If Stafford gets into the HoF, then the Ford family needs to be forced to sell the Lions

HoF QB & WR can't win a Division Title nor even a single Playoff Game together? In the era when the rules were seriously changing to favor the passing game? GTFOH

Hey Barry Sanders was arguably the greatest running back that ever played and the best the Lions ever could do with him was one NFC Championship game.  At least the Lions has two Division Titles (1991 and 1993) when Barry Sanders was around.

Regarding Stafford, it might surprise some people how many fourth quarter comebacks the guy has. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/comebacks_career.htm

[thspfc]

It's a good throw.  I've seen all of the guys I have ranked above him do that too.

Also re: Stafford, I've seen a lot of talk lately of him now being a lock HOFer.  Has he ever once been one of the top 5 QBs in the league?  I personally feel he's more in the Hall of Very Good.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=MGHYqoemX3U

[JayhawkCO]

OK.  He's done it twice... Is that supposed to sway me? 

Stafford has three seasons with a QB rating above 98 out of his thirteen played.  Deshaun Watson has four... in four seasons.

[Scott5114]

Justin Herbert will have the best overall stats of any rookie next year. (Helps he'll be picked later in the draft for a better team)

With the superb owl in the books, I went back to the beginning of the thread to change the title to 2022 and...
I have to give you your just due for this incredible prediction two years ago. A true gem in reply #1 to the thread... 

If you're not going to make new threads for each season, why even have the year there?