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Author Topic: NFL (2022 Season)  (Read 232162 times)

webny99

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #3400 on: November 22, 2022, 11:00:11 AM »

On the draft note, I will add that there are four teams with top-10 draft position that no longer hold their own pick.

5. Broncos > Seahawks
6. Rams > Lions
7. Browns > Texans
10. Saints > Eagles

Of those four recipients, it's likely that only the Texans' own pick will be higher than the pick they received in the trade. Brutal for the Broncos, Rams, and Saints, who are not only bad this season, but barring any more trades are going to watch better teams pick in their spot next April.

I've seen enough to say the Broncos lost their trade.
Rams obviously "won" the Stafford trade because they won the Super Bowl, but it was decent for the Lions, and the Rams' terrible season certainly helps.
The Saints trade for Olave is a shrug emoji. He's great, possibly the best receiver in the class, but they haven't been a good team, and it's pretty rough to trade a first-round pick to a Super Bowl contender.
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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #3401 on: November 22, 2022, 10:48:35 PM »

12-2 in week 11 brings me to 29-12 (71%) over the last three weeks, compared to 18-22 (45%) over the previous three before that.

Bills 37, Lions 27
Cowboys 34, Giants 21
Vikings 20, Patriots 16
Dolphins 31, Texans 20
Titans 26, Bengals 14
Broncos 20, Panthers 10
Jets 27, Bears 20
Commanders 24, Falcons 17
Buccaneers 28, Browns 14
Ravens 30, Jaguars 13
Raiders 23, Seahawks 17
Chargers 25, Cardinals 23
49ers 28, Saints 20
Chiefs 23, Rams 13
Eagles 30, Packers 17
Colts 17, Steelers 16
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Whether a team makes the playoffs isn't comparable to whether they are above .500. Part of making the playoffs is getting the wins when you need them to get in, which Brady/Belichick always found a way to do. That's skill. Being above .500 or below .500 is just however things shake out. That's luck.

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #3402 on: November 23, 2022, 10:11:33 AM »

It'll be interesting to see how the Bills handle the four-day turnaround as they'll be playing in Detroit for the second game in a row. Has it ever happened before, where one team plays consecutive games in the same stadium as both the home and visiting sides? (New York and L.A. don't count.)
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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #3403 on: November 23, 2022, 10:18:47 AM »

It'll be interesting to see how the Bills handle the four-day turnaround as they'll be playing in Detroit for the second game in a row. Has it ever happened before, where one team plays consecutive games in the same stadium as both the home and visiting sides? (New York and L.A. don't count.)
Not sure about the NFL, but last year Oklahoma played “at” Tulane then home against some FCS cupcake, with both those games being at Oklahoma due to Hurricane Whichever-one-it-was-that-year.
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Whether a team makes the playoffs isn't comparable to whether they are above .500. Part of making the playoffs is getting the wins when you need them to get in, which Brady/Belichick always found a way to do. That's skill. Being above .500 or below .500 is just however things shake out. That's luck.

webny99

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #3404 on: November 23, 2022, 10:29:39 AM »

The Bills actually used the visitors sideline and locker room against the Browns even though they were the "home" team.

There was some goodwill between the two teams on Twitter as the Bills sent a $20k donation to the Lions foundation as a thank you, but I'm sure that will end at 12:30 tomorrow.  :D
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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #3405 on: November 23, 2022, 10:49:16 AM »

Did the Bills even fly back to Buffalo or did they just stay in Detroit?
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webny99

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #3406 on: November 23, 2022, 11:49:54 AM »

Did the Bills even fly back to Buffalo or did they just stay in Detroit?

They did fly back, probably because it's such a short flight, only about 40 minutes.
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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #3407 on: November 23, 2022, 12:41:57 PM »

Vikings over Patriots
Bills over Lions
Cowboys over Giants
Ravens over Jaguars
Bucs over Browns
Titans over Bengals
Dolphins over Texans
Jets over Bears
Falcons over Commies
Broncos over Panthers
Chargers over Cardinals
Seahawks over Raiders
Chiefs over Rams
49ers over Saints
Packers over Eagles
Colts over Steelers

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #3408 on: November 24, 2022, 12:05:47 AM »

I went 10-4 last week. As I started late, I won't post my record

Bills 29, Lions 24
Giants 21, Cowboys 31
Patriots 21, Vikings 28
Bears 13, Jets 21
Bengals 23, Titans 27
Falcons 24, Commanders 27
Broncos 16, Panthers 13
Texans 19, Dolphins 35
Buccaneers 30, Browns 23
Ravens 26, Jaguars 21
Raiders 22, Seahawks 26
Chargers 28, Cardinals 20
Rams 14, Chiefs 33
Saints 17, 49ers 26
Packers 24, Eagles 26
Steelers 19, Colts 21
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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #3409 on: November 24, 2022, 08:18:03 AM »

Only 7-7 last week.

Bills
Cowboys
Vikings
Broncos
Bucs
Ravens
Dolphins
Jets
Bengals
Commanders
Chargers
Seahawks
Chiefs
Niners
Eagles
Colts
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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #3410 on: November 24, 2022, 08:11:34 PM »

Can't say the first half wasn't frustrating, but the quality difference between the teams really showed in the second. Dallas winning despite 11 penalties and being -2 in turnovers kind of encapsulates the two teams: the Cowboys are far more talented but more mistake prone, while the Giants are less talented but more disciplined.

If 538 is to be believed, the Cowboys are now just a hair behind the Chiefs in "elo" and Super Bowl chances, while the Giants have dropped below 50/50 to make the playoffs.

One thing I really didn't like was the Cowboys decision to go for it on 4th and 2 at their own 40 on their first drive of the game. I don't care about analytics on that one: don't give an inferior team a golden chance to take the lead with a short field. Especially when all you stand to gain is a first down in minus territory in the first quarter.
« Last Edit: November 24, 2022, 08:16:21 PM by thspfc »
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Whether a team makes the playoffs isn't comparable to whether they are above .500. Part of making the playoffs is getting the wins when you need them to get in, which Brady/Belichick always found a way to do. That's skill. Being above .500 or below .500 is just however things shake out. That's luck.

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #3411 on: November 24, 2022, 08:20:03 PM »

I was waiting for the Bills to blow another one, but they got the penalties and clock mismanagement they needed.
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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #3412 on: November 25, 2022, 01:50:20 AM »

Just glad the Vikings got a win to flush that horrific performance on Sunday. 10 days of quiet now.
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webny99

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #3413 on: November 25, 2022, 03:13:26 PM »

I haven't caught up yet on the end of Pats-Vikings but was pleasantly surprised with the result.

There's an interesting round-robin going on between Thanksgiving teams, as the Giants/Lions and Cowboys/Vikings each played last week, while the Bills and Pats play next Thursday.
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thspfc

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #3414 on: November 27, 2022, 08:16:16 PM »

The Raiders' 576 yards of offense today is the most in a game since the Buccaneers' 588 against the Lions in 2020. I correctly predicted the upset, but who knew it would be that high-scoring. My Chargers/Cardinals prediction was only a point off.

On the other hand, there's the Broncos, who flat stink. There's 0 reason that Hackett should not be fired tomorrow. I'll start thinking about that paragraph  :-/

I've been following 538's page each week just to get a sense of the playoff picture. They have the Browns at an elo of 1540, 11th-highest in the league, above the Patriots, Commanders, Seahawks, Chargers, Jets, and Giants. That, uh, raises some questions. It's probably accounting for how Watson is now their starting QB, but still.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2022, 08:22:26 PM by thspfc »
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Whether a team makes the playoffs isn't comparable to whether they are above .500. Part of making the playoffs is getting the wins when you need them to get in, which Brady/Belichick always found a way to do. That's skill. Being above .500 or below .500 is just however things shake out. That's luck.

webny99

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #3415 on: November 27, 2022, 09:16:22 PM »

On the other hand, there's the Broncos, who flat stink. There's 0 reason that Hackett should not be fired tomorrow. I'll start thinking about that paragraph  :-/

Brutal. Losing by 13 to the Panthers who have been a get-right opponent for literally everyone outside their division is a new low. Their average of 14 points per game is on pace to be the lowest by any team this century.



I've been following 538's page each week just to get a sense of the playoff picture. They have the Browns at an elo of 1540, 11th-highest in the league, above the Patriots, Commanders, Seahawks, Chargers, Jets, and Giants. That, uh, raises some questions. It's probably accounting for how Watson is now their starting QB, but still.

It may be accounting for Watson now, but it wasn't while Brissett was the starter. In desktop view, there's a column called "Current QB Adj" where you can see how many points are being adjusted for an injured or temporary starter. Right now, the Commanders, Rams, and Bears are the only 3 teams with an adjustment, so my guess is it's already been updated for Watson's return.

The Browns have been competitive in all but two games this season and have some brutal close losses. We don't need to go down the path of "they could have won games X, Y, and Z", but suffice to say that they are better than their record, especially on offense (although the defense has been brutal at times), and Brissett has been good enough that I'm not assuming Watson will be an immediate massive upgrade. Even so, with 7 losses they'd have to win out to make the playoffs.
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webny99

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #3416 on: November 27, 2022, 09:46:45 PM »

... speaking of the playoff picture, here's the 5 teams with odds of 1% or less right now:
-Cardinals
-Broncos
-Steelers
-Bears
-Texans

A somewhat surprising list, with the defending champs not far behind at 3% and the Jaguars at 4%, and the remaining 25 teams are all above 5%.


As for locks, I'd put five teams in each conference: the current division leaders (of which the Bucs are the most tenuous), plus the Bills and Cowboys. For the remaining two AFC wild cards, the Bengals are in decent position, but they will likely have to win 3 of 6 against a brutal schedule. The Chargers, Jets, and Patriots are the main contenders for the final spot, and 2 of those 3 could make it if the Bengals or someone else stumbles. For the remaining two NFC wild cards, the entire NFC East is now in playoff position with the Giants and Commanders holding those spots right now, and the Seahawks are right there if one of those teams slips.

That leaves the Colts (who could benefit from a tie scenario like the one that cost them last year), Raiders, and Browns as long shots in the AFC, and the Lions and Packers as long shots in the NFC, plus the rest of the NFC South as a long shot to win the division.


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thspfc

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #3417 on: November 27, 2022, 10:08:36 PM »

the entire NFC East is now in playoff position
What hurts the chances of the entire division making it is that the Giants and Commies, the bottom two, still have to play each other twice. If one team sweeps those games it pretty much guarantees that the loser will miss out.

It's been interesting to watch the Commies slowly catch up to the Giants over the last month or so. I think their matchups next week and three weeks from now will have massive long-term consequences in terms of how those teams approach the draft and free agency. 11-6 and in the playoffs compared to 9-8 and out of them is a huge difference to players, coaches, GMs, fans, and owners.

Next week's slate of games looks awesome. Bills/Patriots, Jets/Vikings, Titans/Eagles, Commanders/Giants, Dolphins/49ers, Chargers/Raiders, Chiefs/Bengals, and Saints/Buccaneers.
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Whether a team makes the playoffs isn't comparable to whether they are above .500. Part of making the playoffs is getting the wins when you need them to get in, which Brady/Belichick always found a way to do. That's skill. Being above .500 or below .500 is just however things shake out. That's luck.

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #3418 on: November 28, 2022, 12:10:03 AM »

Aaron Rodgers could be done in the NFL after injury?
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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #3419 on: November 28, 2022, 01:36:10 AM »

... speaking of the playoff picture, here's the 5 teams with odds of 1% or less right now:
-Cardinals
-Broncos
-Steelers
-Bears
-Texans


I believe my Texans have already been mathematically eliminated from the playoff picture; they can still win another game or two but we have the highest chance of getting the top pick for the first time in eight years.  Lovie Smith was a bad hire for a head coach; he was better off as a DC.  David Culley had the ship steered in a better direction last year.
« Last Edit: November 28, 2022, 01:38:37 AM by jgb191 »
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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #3420 on: November 28, 2022, 07:10:26 AM »

Broncos, Texans, Rams and Packers are done. Bengals, Browns and Commanders suddenly have reason for hope. And Buccaneers, Ravens and Titans fans are losing faith in their teams again.
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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #3421 on: November 28, 2022, 09:43:29 AM »

Aaron Rodgers could be done in the NFL after injury?

Rodgers believes he can play in next game.  Will say Love by having a couple decent series vs Eagles has made the discussion for should they be sitting Rodgers, to get him healthy, a lot more interesting now.  With the ribs injury added on it makes in almost certain IMHO when Packers are mathematically eliminated that Love win be starting rest of games for the season.
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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #3422 on: November 28, 2022, 09:49:31 AM »

I think every team still has a shot to make the playoffs. If everything plays out perfectly, of course.
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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #3423 on: November 28, 2022, 09:58:26 AM »

Aaron Rodgers could be done in the NFL after injury?

Rodgers believes he can play in next game.  Will say Love by having a couple decent series vs Eagles has made the discussion for should they be sitting Rodgers, to get him healthy, a lot more interesting now.  With the ribs injury added on it makes in almost certain IMHO when Packers are mathematically eliminated that Love win be starting rest of games for the season.

Rodgers has a contract through 2026. I'm not a salary cap expert, so I don't know if him retiring saves them more cap space compared to releasing him.

If retirement saves more cap space, then maybe throw him out there the rest of the season with backup offensive linemen to perhaps encourage him to choose retirement.
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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #3424 on: November 28, 2022, 10:19:36 AM »

the entire NFC East is now in playoff position
What hurts the chances of the entire division making it is that the Giants and Commies, the bottom two, still have to play each other twice. If one team sweeps those games it pretty much guarantees that the loser will miss out.

....

The scheduling is interesting in that respect. Washington's next two games are both against the Giants (road game this coming Sunday, home game two weeks later, with the bye week in between), while the Giants have already had their bye week and have a home game against Philadelphia sandwiched in between. The Giants' schedule makes the prospect of a Washington sweep that much more interesting in terms of playoff ramifications.

That schedule prompts me to wonder, BTW, how often in the modern era (let's say since 1960) an NFL team has played the same opponent two games in a row in the regular season, even recognizing that the bye week arguably distinguishes it slightly.
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