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NFL (2024 Season)

Started by webny99, February 04, 2020, 02:35:53 PM

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74/171FAN

Quote from: webny99 on February 16, 2022, 05:11:04 PM
Quote from: Henry on February 16, 2022, 04:57:45 PM
What about Harrisburg? It seems to me that it would be the dividing line between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, thus to the west it would be all-Steelers fans, and to the east all-Eagles. And they'd probably be Penn State fans/alumni too, since it's the closest major university to the capital.

The crazy thing is that Harrisburg is actually closer to Baltimore than Pittsburgh or Philly, so there's probably some Ravens fans there too.

I was told by my friend that briefly lived in Lancaster that the Steelers-Eagles line may be even east of there.
I am now a PennDOT employee.  My opinions/views do not necessarily reflect the opinions/views of PennDOT.


webny99

Quote from: 74/171FAN on February 16, 2022, 05:16:55 PM
Quote from: webny99 on February 16, 2022, 05:11:04 PM
Quote from: Henry on February 16, 2022, 04:57:45 PM
What about Harrisburg? It seems to me that it would be the dividing line between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, thus to the west it would be all-Steelers fans, and to the east all-Eagles. And they'd probably be Penn State fans/alumni too, since it's the closest major university to the capital.

The crazy thing is that Harrisburg is actually closer to Baltimore than Pittsburgh or Philly, so there's probably some Ravens fans there too.

I was told by my friend that briefly lived in Lancaster that the Steelers-Eagles line may be even east of there.

Yeah, the Steelers seem to have a more widespread fanbase even outside of PA, so that makes some sense. But of course the Philly area itself is more populous, so that makes up for it some, especially factoring in Eagles fans in southern NJ and DE.

DenverBrian

Reports are that Aaron Rodgers has broken up with his girlfriend. Bad news for Broncos fans.

webny99

#2528
Quote from: Alps on February 04, 2020, 04:48:28 PM
Justin Herbert will have the best overall stats of any rookie next year. (Helps he'll be picked later in the draft for a better team)

With the superb owl in the books, I went back to the beginning of the thread to change the title to 2022 and...
I have to give you your just due for this incredible prediction two years ago. A true gem in reply #1 to the thread...  :cheers:

webny99

#2529
Alright, this is hard to believe, but it's already time to answer all the questions I asked at the beginning of the season. Fair warning — this got pretty long!


Quote from: webny99 on February 10, 2021, 01:42:42 PM
Can teams that finished short of the playoffs make a postseason run next year? (Arizona Cardinals, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings)

This turned out to be a No for all three teams, who all came reasonably close, but...

-After a disastrous 1-7 start, the Dolphins needed everything to go their way to have any chance at the playoffs. Thanks to a soft schedule, an upset over the Ravens, and the Saints' 4th string QB, they won 7 straight to get to 8-7, and it seemed like it could happen... but then they laid a season-ending egg in Week 17 against the Titans

-Seemingly every Vikings game down to the wire, and they kept afloat, fighting back to a .500 record on three separate occasions. And then Kirk Cousins got covid at the worst possible time, and backup Sean Mannion couldn't save their season against the Packers... a crushing and yet somehow fitting end to the Spielman/Zimmer era

-The Cardinals had a promising 7-0 start and displayed dominance at times, but ended up getting blown out by the Lions before stumbling into the playoffs, and were largely non-competitive in a Wild Card loss to the eventual Super Bowl champion Rams


Quote from: webny99 on February 10, 2021, 01:42:42 PM
Can teams that are a QB away from contention get the all-important position figured out? (Indianapolis Colts, Denver Broncos, San Francisco 49ers)

All three teams are a solid "hold"  — yet in very different ways.

Despite a 1-4 to start the season, the Colts thought they had their guy in Carson Wentz until an ugly two week stretch cost them a playoff berth that looked like a virtual lock (98% playoff odds per FiveThirtyEight) after beating the Cardinals on Christmas. After a season-ending meltdown against the Jags, ownership is apparently unhappy with Wentz, so it's unclear where they go from here after cycling through 5 starting QB's in the past 5 seasons.

The Broncos had a 3-0 start and were mostly competitive with Teddy Bridgewater, but ended up stumbling to a 7-10 finish after a Bridgewater injury, a Drew Lock meltdown agains the Bengals, and a 13th straight loss to the Chiefs. 10 years ago, you could see this defense-first recipe being enough for a playoff berth and a tough out, but it just isn't going to cut it anymore in the stacked AFC. With Fangio out and new coach Nathaniel Hackett coming from the Packers, the prospect of landing Aaron Rodgers looms large.

Meanwhile, the 49ers gave up a ton of draft capital to secure the #3 pick and draft their QB of the future, but he spent most of the season on the sideline, as they got mostly competent play from Jimmy G, whose gutsy Week 18 comeback got them to the playoffs. They managed to win two strange playoff games without much help from Jimmy G, and all indications are that they are moving on to Trey Lance next year. On one hand, it seems strange when they came so close... but on the other, it was Jimmy G's limitations that cost them in the end, just as they did in the Super Bowl two years ago.


Quote from: webny99 on February 10, 2021, 01:42:42 PM
Will the Chiefs run it back to the biggest stage?

Not quite. After scoring 42 points in their first two playoff games, and 21 in the first half of the third, their second half meltdown against the Bengals will go down as one of the most baffling in NFL history. At 21-3, the game looked completely over, but then a Bengals score and defensive stand set the tone for a second half in which the Chiefs were shut out before getting to 1st and goal... before a sack turned that into 3rd and very long... before kicking a FG to force OT, winning the coin toss, and Mahomes throwin a pick 13 seconds in. That Bengals magic was truly something.


Quote from: webny99 on February 10, 2021, 01:42:42 PM
Can the Bills and Packers get over the Championship hump?

No, in fact both teams lost in the divisional round, but the two games couldn't have been more different.

The Bills won four straight games to close the season, and came in to Kansas City on a high note coming off one of the greatest offensive performances in NFL history. And the offense kept right on rolling, going on two potential game-winning drives in the final minutes... but the defense couldn't hold on for 13 seconds, Harrison Butker kicked the game to OT, the Bills lost the coin toss, and the rest is history. Crushing.

Meanwhile, the Packers hadn't won a meaningful game in almost a month after beating the Vikings' backup QB, losing to the Lions to end the season, and not playing in the Wild Card round thanks to the bye. Their defense was spectacular, holding the 49ers to 3 points through 55 minutes. But the offense couldn't take advantage before or after a special teams touchdown tied the game, and the 49ers drove for a game winning FG to win a classic in its own right. Unbelievable.


Quote from: webny99 on February 10, 2021, 01:42:42 PM
Will the 2021 NFC South be among the league's best divisions?

LOL, it's crazy how fast things change. The 2021 NFC South was mediocre aside from the Buccanners, who rolled to a 13-4 record in what ended up being Brady's final season. The Saints got the most out of an injury-ravaged roster, the Falcons won a bunch of close games but ultimately overacheived, and the Panthers failed to solve their QB dilemma, with neither Darnold or Cam "I'm back!"  Newton showing much promise. With Brady and Sean Payton retiring, the NFC South now looks like it could be one of the worst divisions next year.


Quote from: webny99 on February 10, 2021, 01:42:42 PM
Will the Rams go on a Super Bowl run?

LOL, but for a different reason: it's crazy how much things stay the same even when they change.

I'm not sure there's ever been a more "all in"  team than the 2021 Los Angeles Rams. After signing Stafford, OBJ, and (perhaps craziest of all) Von Miller, they had to win a Super Bowl. And after squeaking past the GOAT, grinding out a win over their toughest division rival, and closing strong against the hottest team in the league, the entire organization can now breathe a massive sigh of relief. Somehow, some way, they are Super Bowl 56 champions!

They did it in about the most improbable fashion possible, losing Robert Woods in November, backing in to a division title thanks to a Cardinals meltdown, avoiding Lambeau by letting the 49ers into the playoffs, ending Tom Brady's career despite a crazy comeback, and losing OBJ during the Super Bowl... but they found a way and won the trophy, and that's all that matters... what happens next, we'll see!

webny99

#2530
And as per tradition...
A Look Ahead To 2022

With Super Bowl 56 in the books, time to look ahead to the 2022 offseason and upcoming season. And we're entering unchartered territory as the NFL calendar churns on without Tom Brady for the first time in 22 years!

After two straight years of QB's winning the Super Bowl on a new team (and countless teams desperate to find a QB), could we be in for a lot of QB movement? Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Deshaun Watson (pending significant legal issues), and even Carson Wentz are some of the QB's that could be on the move. And with a draft low on top prospects, the value of these veterans could increase even more. The AFC continues to look like a much stronger conference, as 10 teams (!) have a first-round QB from the past 5 drafts as their likely starter, compared to just 4 such teams in the NFC.

Will the race for the AFC East be exciting again with 4 young QB's? Will the Bills and Chiefs meet again in the postseason? Can an AFC North team make a run for the Super Bowl? Can Justin Herbert get the Chargers to the playoffs? Will the Broncos find an answer at QB? Will Trevor Lawrence take a big step forward in his second year?

Will three NFC West teams make it back to the postseason? Who will step up to claim the NFC South title? Can Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson get back to the mountaintop? Can the Cowboys end an 18-year drought of repeat NFC East champions? Can the Giants take a step forward with Daniel Jones? Is Justin Fields the real deal for the Bears?

So many questions, so few answers. Can't wait to see how this next season unfolds.  :coffee:

Alps

Quote from: webny99 on February 16, 2022, 11:03:49 PM
And as per tradition...
A Look Ahead To 2022

With Super Bowl 56 in the books, time to look ahead to the 2022 offseason and upcoming season. And we're entering unchartered territory as the NFL calendar churns on without Tom Brady for the first time in 22 years!

After two straight years of QB's winning the Super Bowl on a new team (and countless teams desperate to find a QB), could we be in for a lot of QB movement? Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Deshaun Watson (pending significant legal issues), and even Carson Wentz are some of the QB's that could be on the move. And with a draft low on top prospects, the value of these veterans could increase even more. The AFC continues to look like a much stronger conference, as 10 teams (!) have a first-round QB from the past 5 drafts as their likely starter, compared to just 4 such teams in the NFC.

Will the race for the AFC East be exciting again with 4 young QB's? Will the Bills and Chiefs meet again in the postseason? Can an AFC North team make a run for the Super Bowl? Can Justin Herbert get the Chargers to the playoffs? Will the Broncos find an answer at QB? Will Trevor Lawrence take a big step forward in his second year?

Will three NFC West teams make it back to the postseason? Who will step up to claim the NFC South title? Can Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson get back to the mountaintop? Can the Cowboys end an 18-year drought of repeat NFC East champions? Can the Giants take a step forward with Daniel Jones? Is Justin Fields the real deal for the Bears?

So many questions, so few answers. Can't wait to see how this next season unfolds.  :coffee:

The race for the AFC East will be exciting for 3 of the 4 teams :|

kurumi

Quote from: Alps on February 16, 2022, 11:55:31 PM
The race for the AFC East will be exciting for 3 of the 4 teams :|

In German, "jetzt" means Now, which is kind of ironic
My first SF/horror short story collection is available: "Young Man, Open Your Winter Eye"

webny99

#2533
Quote from: webny99 on February 16, 2022, 11:03:49 PM
The AFC continues to look like a much stronger conference, as 10 teams (!) have a first-round QB from the past 5 drafts as their likely starter, compared to just 4 such teams in the NFC.

And with Big Ben and Brady retiring, we'll have at most just 3 starting QB's who have been in the league more than a decade. Calling this a new era would be an understatement! Here's a breakdown I created in table form:


AFC
Division Team Quarterback Draft Year
AFC West Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes 2017
AFC North Cleveland BrownsBaker Mayfield 2018
AFC East Buffalo Bills Josh Allen 2018
AFC North Baltimore Ravens Lamar Jackson 2018
AFC North Cincinnati Bengals Joe Burrow 2020
AFC East Miami Dolphins Tua Tagavailoa 2020
AFC West Los Angeles Chargers Justin Herbert 2020
AFC South Jacksonville Jaguars Trevor Lawrence 2021
AFC East New York Jets Zach Wilson 2021
AFC East New England Patriots Mac Jones 2021

The other likely QB's: Ryan Tannehill (2012), Derek Carr (2014), Davis Mills (2021)
Plus big question marks for the Broncos, Steelers, and now Colts.



NFC
Division Team Quarterback Draft Year
NFC West Arizona Cardinals Kyler Murray 2019
NFC East New York Giants Daniel Jones 2019
NFC West San Francisco 49ers Trey Lance 2021
NFC North Chicago Bears Justin Fields 2021

The other likely QB's: Matt Ryan (2008), Matthew Stafford (2009), Kirk Cousins (2012), Jared Goff (2016), Dak Prescott (2016), Jalen Hurts (2020)
Plus Aaron Rodgers (2005) and Russell Wilson (2012) if they return
Plus big question marks for the Bucs, Commanders, Panthers, and Saints

thspfc

Quote from: webny99 on February 16, 2022, 11:03:49 PM
And as per tradition...
A Look Ahead To 2022

With Super Bowl 56 in the books, time to look ahead to the 2022 offseason and upcoming season. And we're entering unchartered territory as the NFL calendar churns on without Tom Brady for the first time in 22 years!

After two straight years of QB's winning the Super Bowl on a new team (and countless teams desperate to find a QB), could we be in for a lot of QB movement? Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Deshaun Watson (pending significant legal issues), and even Carson Wentz are some of the QB's that could be on the move. And with a draft low on top prospects, the value of these veterans could increase even more. The AFC continues to look like a much stronger conference, as 10 teams (!) have a first-round QB from the past 5 drafts as their likely starter, compared to just 4 such teams in the NFC.

Will the race for the AFC East be exciting again with 4 young QB's? Will the Bills and Chiefs meet again in the postseason? Can an AFC North team make a run for the Super Bowl? Can Justin Herbert get the Chargers to the playoffs? Will the Broncos find an answer at QB? Will Trevor Lawrence take a big step forward in his second year?

Will three NFC West teams make it back to the postseason? Who will step up to claim the NFC South title? Can Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson get back to the mountaintop? Can the Cowboys end an 18-year drought of repeat NFC East champions? Can the Giants take a step forward with Daniel Jones? Is Justin Fields the real deal for the Bears?

So many questions, so few answers. Can't wait to see how this next season unfolds.  :coffee:
I'm sick of Aaron Rodgers and want him out of the league. Go host Jeopardy or something. Anything to get the media to stop crowning his team as the best team in the league when it's been proven time and time again that he's going to be humiliated in the playoffs.

Russ is staying in Seattle.

Jimmy G is going who knows where, but I think he will be starting somewhere week 1.

Watson better not be on an active roster this year.

Ranking the top 16 QBs in the league, IMO:

1. Mahomes
2. Rodgers
3. Wilson
4. Burrow
5. Herbert
6. Allen
7. Stafford
8. Dak
9. Carr
10. Cousins
11. Kyler
12. Lamar
13. Ryan
14. Tannehill
15. Mac
16. Goff

So that's 8 in the AFC and 8 in the NFC. What round you're drafted in doesn't matter.

Buffalo should run away with the AFCE, Patriots should make the playoffs, Dolphins should be in playoff contention, Jets should have their best season since 2015 (which is not saying much)

Chargers might make the playoffs if they don't call a timeout to prevent themselves from making the playoffs

Dallas is so far ahead of the rest of that division, it would be a massive failure if they didn't repeat.

jeffandnicole

Quote from: thspfc on February 17, 2022, 12:43:55 PM
Dallas is so far ahead of the rest of that division, it would be a massive failure if they didn't repeat.

Only to lose in the first round of the playoffs again...

CoreySamson

https://www.si.com/nfl/texans/news/report-brian-flores-houston-defendant-lawsuit-lovie-smith

Apparently the Flores drama isn't over for the Texans. He's included them in his lawsuit on racist hiring strategies in the NFL, despite the Texans having hired Lovie Smith, who is also black, which confuses me as to why Flores dragged the Texans into this. I stand by my presumption that the Texans didn't hire Flores because it would heighten the Watson situation, but who knows what the Texans' true motives are.

I'm otherwise optimistic about 2022 for the Texans. The Pep Hamilton move to OC is probably going to pay immediate positive dividends. Now all the Texans need to do on offense is to find Davis Mills some support and protection. The defense is young and improving; if they can find some pass rushers and more depth in the secondary they could make some noise. Plus if Watson does end up getting traded to some other team, the Texans would get something positive in return. I think 7-10 is well within the realm of possibility.

I also seriously wonder if the AFC South will be sneakily good in 2022. The Texans and Jaguars will improve, the Titans still have star power, and the Colts more than likely won't just fade away.

Also, given that this year will mark the Texans' 20th anniversary, I think they should rebrand to something like Toros or Stallions (the Texans moniker is just lazy) and revamp their uniforms. It literally hasn't changed at all for 20 years.
Buc-ee's and QuikTrip fanboy. Clincher of FM roads. Proponent of the TX U-turn.

My Route Log
My Clinches

Now on mobrule and Travel Mapping!

webny99

Quote from: thspfc on February 17, 2022, 12:43:55 PM
Anything to get the media to stop crowning his team as the best team in the league when it's been proven time and time again that he's going to be humiliated in the playoffs.

I agree, but then I'm not sure why you have him at #2.


Quote from: thspfc on February 17, 2022, 12:43:55 PM
What round you're drafted in doesn't matter.
Except for the fact that there are 16 likely 2022 starters drafted in the past 5 years, and 14 of 16 were drafted in the first round...



webny99

Quote from: CoreySamson on February 17, 2022, 12:54:08 PM
Apparently the Flores drama isn't over for the Texans. He's included them in his lawsuit on racist hiring strategies in the NFL, despite the Texans having hired Lovie Smith, who is also black, which confuses me as to why Flores dragged the Texans into this. I stand by my presumption that the Texans didn't hire Flores because it would heighten the Watson situation, but who knows what the Texans' true motives are.

My thought is that they were considering hiring Josh McCown before the lawsuit, and they switched to a minority candidate because they realized how terrible of a look it would be to hire Josh McCown right then.  But like you say, who knows.


1995hoo

Quote from: webny99 on February 17, 2022, 12:16:57 PM
...

Plus big question marks for the ... Commanders ...

You, sir, win an award for mega-understatement of the week!
"You know, you never have a guaranteed spot until you have a spot guaranteed."
—Olaf Kolzig, as quoted in the Washington Times on March 28, 2003,
commenting on the Capitals clinching a playoff spot.

"That sounded stupid, didn't it?"
—Kolzig, to the same reporter a few seconds later.

webny99

Quote from: 1995hoo on February 17, 2022, 01:18:20 PM
Quote from: webny99 on February 17, 2022, 12:16:57 PM
...

Plus big question marks for the ... Commanders ...

You, sir, win an award for mega-understatement of the week!

I meant at the QB position, but yes, there are other big question marks as well.  :-D

1995hoo

Quote from: webny99 on February 17, 2022, 01:29:31 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on February 17, 2022, 01:18:20 PM
Quote from: webny99 on February 17, 2022, 12:16:57 PM
...

Plus big question marks for the ... Commanders ...

You, sir, win an award for mega-understatement of the week!

I meant at the QB position, but yes, there are other big question marks as well.  :-D

I was referring to the QB position.
"You know, you never have a guaranteed spot until you have a spot guaranteed."
—Olaf Kolzig, as quoted in the Washington Times on March 28, 2003,
commenting on the Capitals clinching a playoff spot.

"That sounded stupid, didn't it?"
—Kolzig, to the same reporter a few seconds later.

webny99

Quote from: 1995hoo on February 17, 2022, 01:40:51 PM
Quote from: webny99 on February 17, 2022, 01:29:31 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on February 17, 2022, 01:18:20 PM
Quote from: webny99 on February 17, 2022, 12:16:57 PM
...

Plus big question marks for the ... Commanders ...

You, sir, win an award for mega-understatement of the week!

I meant at the QB position, but yes, there are other big question marks as well.  :-D

I was referring to the QB position.

That's what I get for being cynical. I wasn't thinking of their QB question as being any bigger than any of the other teams I had listed in that category, but on second thought... yeah, I guess it is.

thspfc

Quote from: webny99 on February 17, 2022, 12:56:27 PM
Quote from: thspfc on February 17, 2022, 12:43:55 PM
Anything to get the media to stop crowning his team as the best team in the league when it's been proven time and time again that he's going to be humiliated in the playoffs.

I agree, but then I'm not sure why you have him at #2.


Quote from: thspfc on February 17, 2022, 12:43:55 PM
What round you're drafted in doesn't matter.
Except for the fact that there are 16 likely 2022 starters drafted in the past 5 years, and 14 of 16 were drafted in the first round...
The round you're drafted in doesn't determine how good you are. If you're the 10th best quarterback in the league, then you're the 10th best quarterback in the league. Doesn't matter when you were drafted.

webny99

Quote from: thspfc on February 17, 2022, 03:22:43 PM
Quote from: webny99 on February 17, 2022, 12:56:27 PM
Quote from: thspfc on February 17, 2022, 12:43:55 PM
What round you're drafted in doesn't matter.
Except for the fact that there are 16 likely 2022 starters drafted in the past 5 years, and 14 of 16 were drafted in the first round...
The round you're drafted in doesn't determine how good you are. If you're the 10th best quarterback in the league, then you're the 10th best quarterback in the league. Doesn't matter when you were drafted.

A great example of correlation vs. causation. Being drafted highly does not mean you will be good, but there is still a clear relationship between the two.

thspfc

Quote from: webny99 on February 18, 2022, 07:55:05 AM
Quote from: thspfc on February 17, 2022, 03:22:43 PM
Quote from: webny99 on February 17, 2022, 12:56:27 PM
Quote from: thspfc on February 17, 2022, 12:43:55 PM
What round you're drafted in doesn't matter.
Except for the fact that there are 16 likely 2022 starters drafted in the past 5 years, and 14 of 16 were drafted in the first round...
The round you're drafted in doesn't determine how good you are. If you're the 10th best quarterback in the league, then you're the 10th best quarterback in the league. Doesn't matter when you were drafted.

A great example of correlation vs. causation. Being drafted highly does not mean you will be good, but there is still a clear relationship between the two.
But it doesn't matter that the AFC has more first round QBs than the NFC does. If you want to say that the AFC has better quarterbacks then that's an actual debate. But saying that the AFC is superior because it has more first round quarterbacks (which is exactly what you said) is not true. Four of the AFC's first round quarterbacks (Lawrence, Wilson, Baker, Lamar) combined for 41 touchdowns and 41 picks last year.

webny99

#2546
Quote from: thspfc on February 18, 2022, 12:27:39 PM
But it doesn't matter that the AFC has more first round QBs than the NFC does. If you want to say that the AFC has better quarterbacks then that's an actual debate.

But it's still relevant, because there's a strong correlation. The AFC has way more highly-drafted young quarterbacks, and that's significantly contributed to this idea that it's "stacked". It's "stacked" largely because of Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, and Herbert... all drafted in the top 10.

Quote from: thspfc on February 18, 2022, 12:27:39 PM
But saying that the AFC is superior because it has more first round quarterbacks (which is exactly what you said) is not true.

The AFC is superior, and it does have more first round quarterbacks. Even if one thing didn't directly cause the other, both things are true, and there's a very strong correlation between the two. But anyways, forget about the whole "first round" thing that's gotten way overblown. If it really means that much, let's include Jalen Hurts and Davis Mills in the analysis:

The AFC has 11 likely starters drafted in the past 5 years, while the NFC only has 5. That means nearly 70% of AFC teams have the potential QB of the future on their roster compared to just 30% of NFC teams. Part of that is just the randomness of which teams have veterans and which teams are in position to draft a QB. But it's completely fair to say the AFC looks likely to be a significantly tougher conference for the next 5-10 years, and the QB's drafted in the past 5 years are a significant reason why.

Henry

I guess it's safe to say that everybody underestimated the Bengals this past season, because nobody expected them to get as far as they did. Joe Burrow still has lots of work to do, because he got sacked too many times to count and still won three playoff games before losing to Matthew Stafford in the Super Bowl.

And speaking of Stafford, here's a fun fact about him and Sammy Kershaw of the Dodgers, who have just about everything in common: They grew up in the same town, graduated from the same high high school, and won their first championships in their 13th season, while playing for the same city's teams. As Alanis Morissette once said, isn't it ironic?
Go Cubs Go! Go Cubs Go! Hey Chicago, what do you say? The Cubs are gonna win today!

thspfc

Quote from: webny99 on February 18, 2022, 12:58:20 PM
Quote from: thspfc on February 18, 2022, 12:27:39 PM
But it doesn't matter that the AFC has more first round QBs than the NFC does. If you want to say that the AFC has better quarterbacks then that's an actual debate.

But it's still relevant, because there's a strong correlation. The AFC has way more highly-drafted young quarterbacks, and that's significantly contributed to this idea that it's "stacked". It's "stacked" largely because of Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, and Herbert... all drafted in the top 10.

Quote from: thspfc on February 18, 2022, 12:27:39 PM
But saying that the AFC is superior because it has more first round quarterbacks (which is exactly what you said) is not true.

The AFC is superior, and it does have more first round quarterbacks. Even if one thing didn't directly cause the other, both things are true, and there's a very strong correlation between the two. But anyways, forget about the whole "first round" thing that's gotten way overblown. If it really means that much, let's include Jalen Hurts and Davis Mills in the analysis:

The AFC has 11 likely starters drafted in the past 5 years, while the NFC only has 5. That means nearly 70% of AFC teams have the potential QB of the future on their roster compared to just 30% of NFC teams. Part of that is just the randomness of which teams have veterans and which teams are in position to draft a QB. But it's completely fair to say the AFC looks likely to be a significantly tougher conference for the next 5-10 years, and the QB's drafted in the past 5 years are a significant reason why.
Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, and Allen are good because they're good at playing football. They're not good because they were drafted in the top 10. That's simply a by-product.

QuoteThe AFC continues to look like a much stronger conference, as 10 teams (!) have a first-round QB from the past 5 drafts as their likely starter, compared to just 4 such teams in the NFC.

By saying this you are clearly indicating that you believe the AFC is a better conference because they have more quarterbacks who were drafted in the top 10, which is nonsensical. If you want to argue that the AFC is better because they have quarterbacks who are better at playing football, then that's a reasonable debate.

I will agree with you that the AFC has a stronger outlook for the next ten years. For right now? Two of my top four, five of my top ten, and eight of my top 16 quarterbacks come from the NFC.

webny99

Quote from: thspfc on February 18, 2022, 02:49:13 PM
Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, and Allen are good because they're good at playing football. They're not good because they were drafted in the top 10. That's simply a by-product.

Uh... they were drafted in the top 10 because they were good prospects. That correlates to being good.


Quote from: thspfc on February 18, 2022, 02:49:13 PM
QuoteThe AFC continues to look like a much stronger conference, as 10 11 teams have a first-round QB from the past 5 drafts as their likely starter, compared to just 4 5 such teams in the NFC.

By saying this you are clearly indicating that you believe the AFC is a better conference because they have more quarterbacks who were drafted in the top 10, which is nonsensical. If you want to argue that the AFC is better because they have quarterbacks who are better at playing football, then that's a reasonable debate.

No, I said first round, not top 10. And the only reason I bothered to say first round is because of the stat that I already cited: 14 of 16 projected starters from the past five drafts are first-rounders, so it's a largely meaningless distinction.

In any case, the comment was about the outlook for the future and really had nothing to do with when anyone was drafted, but see my edit if you insist: the point is still the same.




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