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NFL (2024 Season)

Started by webny99, February 04, 2020, 02:35:53 PM

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JayhawkCO

Quote from: 1 on March 29, 2022, 05:05:10 PM
Quote from: JayhawkCO on March 29, 2022, 04:45:01 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 29, 2022, 04:05:28 PM
https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-owners-approve-modified-overtime-rule-ensuring-possession-for-both-teams-in-  :cheers:

There's starting to be a pretty clear case that we will look back at the Bills-Chiefs divisional round game as changing the landscape of the NFL between this overtime rule change and the way it changed teams' pursuit of top-tier quarterbacks.

And now the analytics say that it's better for you to lose the coin toss!

Because it's always better to know what you need first. If you lose the toss and the other team gets 7, you know you have to go for it on 4th every time. If you win the toss, you could go for it on 4th sometimes, but you're flying blind.

Doesn't the winner of the toss get to choose whether they go first or second?

I suppose you're right. Not sure what I read earlier that made me think otherwise. My apologies. Either way, everyone is going to choose to go second.

skluth

Quote from: JayhawkCO on March 29, 2022, 05:07:22 PM
Quote from: 1 on March 29, 2022, 05:05:10 PM
Quote from: JayhawkCO on March 29, 2022, 04:45:01 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 29, 2022, 04:05:28 PM
https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-owners-approve-modified-overtime-rule-ensuring-possession-for-both-teams-in-  :cheers:

There's starting to be a pretty clear case that we will look back at the Bills-Chiefs divisional round game as changing the landscape of the NFL between this overtime rule change and the way it changed teams' pursuit of top-tier quarterbacks.

And now the analytics say that it's better for you to lose the coin toss!

Because it's always better to know what you need first. If you lose the toss and the other team gets 7, you know you have to go for it on 4th every time. If you win the toss, you could go for it on 4th sometimes, but you're flying blind.

Doesn't the winner of the toss get to choose whether they go first or second?

I suppose you're right. Not sure what I read earlier that made me think otherwise. My apologies. Either way, everyone is going to choose to go second.
Not necessarily. If neither team scores or it's tied after each team has one possession, first score still wins.

JayhawkCO

Quote from: skluth on March 29, 2022, 05:21:24 PM
Quote from: JayhawkCO on March 29, 2022, 05:07:22 PM
Quote from: 1 on March 29, 2022, 05:05:10 PM
Quote from: JayhawkCO on March 29, 2022, 04:45:01 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 29, 2022, 04:05:28 PM
https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-owners-approve-modified-overtime-rule-ensuring-possession-for-both-teams-in-  :cheers:

There's starting to be a pretty clear case that we will look back at the Bills-Chiefs divisional round game as changing the landscape of the NFL between this overtime rule change and the way it changed teams' pursuit of top-tier quarterbacks.

And now the analytics say that it's better for you to lose the coin toss!

Because it's always better to know what you need first. If you lose the toss and the other team gets 7, you know you have to go for it on 4th every time. If you win the toss, you could go for it on 4th sometimes, but you're flying blind.

Doesn't the winner of the toss get to choose whether they go first or second?

I suppose you're right. Not sure what I read earlier that made me think otherwise. My apologies. Either way, everyone is going to choose to go second.
Not necessarily. If neither team scores or it's tied after each team has one possession, first score still wins.

I don't see why that would ever make me choose to go first.

US 89

I'm glad to see this change, but I don't think it's going to have much if any visible effect as it only applies to the postseason. Since 1965, there have only been 32 NFL postseason games that have gone to overtime, and only 13 of them involved a team not getting a possession - compared to 574 games in the regular season since they started playing regular-season overtime in 1974. That means as things stand now, only 2.15% of historical overtimes would be played differently today.

I see no reason why it shouldn't be extended to regular-season games.

webny99

Quote from: US 89 on March 29, 2022, 05:40:39 PM
I see no reason why it shouldn't be extended to regular-season games.

It probably will be eventually. Change is always more palatable in small bites.

Although to be fair, the 2% of OT games that will be affected are by far the most consequential 2% considering they're always elimination games. It's rare to have an overtime elimination game in the regular season, although ironically we did have one this season (the SNF Chargers-Raiders finale) that was the subject of much drama because of the stakes and the tie scenario, but didn't see the OT rules come under fire since both teams possessed the ball (and scored!)

webny99

Quote from: JayhawkCO on March 29, 2022, 05:28:52 PM
Quote from: skluth on March 29, 2022, 05:21:24 PM
Quote from: JayhawkCO on March 29, 2022, 05:07:22 PM
Either way, everyone is going to choose to go second.
Not necessarily. If neither team scores or it's tied after each team has one possession, first score still wins.

I don't see why that would ever make me choose to go first.

I'm not sure it's so clear-cut. Like many aspects of the game, there's a strategic element, so the best decision could vary from team to team and game to game. For one thing, if you were on defense last in regulation, you might want to give your defense a breather. For another, if you're playing another good offense you might want to set yourself up with the first sudden-death possession, which would mean getting the ball first (and then third).

JayhawkCO

Quote from: webny99 on March 29, 2022, 07:49:12 PM
Quote from: JayhawkCO on March 29, 2022, 05:28:52 PM
Quote from: skluth on March 29, 2022, 05:21:24 PM
Quote from: JayhawkCO on March 29, 2022, 05:07:22 PM
Either way, everyone is going to choose to go second.
Not necessarily. If neither team scores or it's tied after each team has one possession, first score still wins.

I don't see why that would ever make me choose to go first.

I'm not sure it's so clear-cut. Like many aspects of the game, there's a strategic element, so the best decision could vary from team to team and game to game. For one thing, if you were on defense last in regulation, you might want to give your defense a breather. For another, if you're playing another good offense you might want to set yourself up with the first sudden-death possession, which would mean getting the ball first (and then third).

In your second scenario, why wouldn't you just go for two after seeing them score and go for an extra point? Just like college OT, teams who won the toss will always go second.

Buck87

Quote from: webny99 on March 29, 2022, 07:38:10 PM
Quote from: US 89 on March 29, 2022, 05:40:39 PM
I see no reason why it shouldn't be extended to regular-season games.

It probably will be eventually. Change is always more palatable in small bites.

Yep, there is precedent for changing the playoffs first and then extending it to the regular season later.

The current rule was for the playoffs only in 2010 and 2011 and was then extended to the regular season in 2012.
The concept of sudden death overtime itself was first implemented for playoff games in the 1940's but did not apply to regular season games until 1974.

Quote from: webny99 on March 29, 2022, 07:49:12 PM
Quote from: JayhawkCO on March 29, 2022, 05:28:52 PM

I don't see why that would ever make me choose to go first.

I'm not sure it's so clear-cut. Like many aspects of the game, there's a strategic element, so the best decision could vary from team to team and game to game. For one thing, if you were on defense last in regulation, you might want to give your defense a breather. For another, if you're playing another good offense you might want to set yourself up with the first sudden-death possession, which would mean getting the ball first (and then third).

Another thing to mention is this frees up a team to chose field direction as their choice after winning the toss during an adverse weather game if they feel that is a bigger advantage than getting the ball first or second.

webny99

Quote from: JayhawkCO on March 30, 2022, 08:29:23 AM
Quote from: webny99 on March 29, 2022, 07:49:12 PM
Quote from: JayhawkCO on March 29, 2022, 05:28:52 PM
Quote from: skluth on March 29, 2022, 05:21:24 PM
Quote from: JayhawkCO on March 29, 2022, 05:07:22 PM
Either way, everyone is going to choose to go second.
Not necessarily. If neither team scores or it's tied after each team has one possession, first score still wins.

I don't see why that would ever make me choose to go first.

I'm not sure it's so clear-cut. Like many aspects of the game, there's a strategic element, so the best decision could vary from team to team and game to game. For one thing, if you were on defense last in regulation, you might want to give your defense a breather. For another, if you're playing another good offense you might want to set yourself up with the first sudden-death possession, which would mean getting the ball first (and then third).

In your second scenario, why wouldn't you just go for two after seeing them score and go for an extra point? Just like college OT, teams who won the toss will always go second.

For the same reason many teams don't go for two when scoring a TD at the end of regulation. It brings the whole game down to that one play and if you miss it, you lose.

JayhawkCO

Quote from: webny99 on March 30, 2022, 10:18:30 AM
For the same reason many teams don't go for two when scoring a TD at the end of regulation. It brings the whole game down to that one play and if you miss it, you lose.

But I guess in your scenario you're so worried about the other team's offense that you'd take a non-optimal position to hope at best for the sudden death, why wouldn't you take the higher variance play which is better for you?

Henry

Quote from: webny99 on March 29, 2022, 07:38:10 PM
Quote from: US 89 on March 29, 2022, 05:40:39 PM
I see no reason why it shouldn't be extended to regular-season games.

It probably will be eventually. Change is always more palatable in small bites.

Although to be fair, the 2% of OT games that will be affected are by far the most consequential 2% considering they're always elimination games. It's rare to have an overtime elimination game in the regular season, although ironically we did have one this season (the SNF Chargers-Raiders finale) that was the subject of much drama because of the stakes and the tie scenario, but didn't see the OT rules come under fire since both teams possessed the ball (and scored!)
Breaking OT ties is fine for the playoffs, but I kind of like the regular-season rule where if no team scores at the end of the extra period, then the game ends in a tie. It's akin to what the NHL did until a few years ago; now OT losses award one point for the team that lost the game, as opposed to two for a win (no matter how long it took), and zero for a regulation loss.
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webny99

Quote from: JayhawkCO on March 30, 2022, 10:25:12 AM
Quote from: webny99 on March 30, 2022, 10:18:30 AM
For the same reason many teams don't go for two when scoring a TD at the end of regulation. It brings the whole game down to that one play and if you miss it, you lose.

But I guess in your scenario you're so worried about the other team's offense that you'd take a non-optimal position to hope at best for the sudden death, why wouldn't you take the higher variance play which is better for you?

I'm just not convinced going first is always non-optimal. If you go first and score, you're in a very favorable position. If you score and get a stop, you win. If you score and don't get a stop, you could lose on a 2 pt conversion, but they likely kick the XP to tie and then all you need is a FG.

JayhawkCO


webny99

Quote from: JayhawkCO on March 30, 2022, 12:29:27 PM


That's fine, but that's college. The NFL is not even close to being the same as college, even with the changed rules.

JayhawkCO

I think it's way more important in the pros. The knowledge of whether or not you need to go for it on fourth down is much more important with a full field.

jeffandnicole

I would think going first in OT opens up a lot more possibilities and strategies. Whether or not they score, and whether it be 3, 6, 7 or 8 points, the defense will use that to their advantage on the opposing team's possession to determine how to attack the offense. If the opposing team ties after their possession, now it's back to sudden death with the 1st team having the ball.

webny99

#2766
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 30, 2022, 01:05:29 PM
I would think going first in OT opens up a lot more possibilities and strategies. Whether or not they score, and whether it be 3, 6, 7 or 8 points, the defense will use that to their advantage on the opposing team's possession to determine how to attack the offense. If the opposing team ties after their possession, now it's back to sudden death with the 1st team having the ball.

True that both sides have more information on the second possession, not just the offense.

02 Park Ave

I know that it is just a game and can its own quirky rules, but wouldn't it make sense for the NFL to just have a 15 minute overtime period in the playoffs, with more added on if needed?
C-o-H

CtrlAltDel

Quote from: 02 Park Ave on March 30, 2022, 01:36:41 PM
I know that it is just a game and can its own quirky rules, but wouldn't it make sense for the NFL to just have a 15 minute overtime period in the playoffs, with more added on if needed?

I suppose, but the objective is to get the game over with quickly.
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KCRoadFan

When will the regular season schedule for 2022 be out? I'm eager to look it over as soon as I can do so.

Roadgeekteen

Wow Bruce Arians surprise retirement.
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Ted$8roadFan

Quote from: Roadgeekteen on March 31, 2022, 01:33:51 AM
Wow Bruce Arians surprise retirement.

Wonder if it had anything to do with Tom Brady's un-retirement.

webny99

#2772
Quote from: Ted$8roadFan on March 31, 2022, 05:06:04 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on March 31, 2022, 01:33:51 AM
Wow Bruce Arians surprise retirement.

Wonder if it had anything to do with Tom Brady's un-retirement.

With a Super Bowl ring in hand, there's not a lot left to prove, so it's a massive commitment if you're not that invested. If he's retiring with Brady, I can't imagine he would have stayed without Brady (he will also be in a front office position apparently, so still with the organization).

Buck87

Quote from: KCRoadFan on March 31, 2022, 12:24:25 AM
When will the regular season schedule for 2022 be out? I'm eager to look it over as soon as I can do so.

Usually not until May.

NWI_Irish96

Quote from: Buck87 on March 31, 2022, 09:16:31 AM
Quote from: KCRoadFan on March 31, 2022, 12:24:25 AM
When will the regular season schedule for 2022 be out? I'm eager to look it over as soon as I can do so.

Usually not until May.


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