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Author Topic: NFL (2022 Season)  (Read 201841 times)

JayhawkCO

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #2975 on: August 12, 2022, 11:09:14 AM »

It looks like my outliers compared to the conventional wisdom are Cleveland (I think much worse than others, especially with no Watson), Minnesota (I think they win the division), Denver (I don't think Russ adds as much as people think), and Houston (Mills isn't half bad and their D played well at the end of last season).

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #2976 on: August 12, 2022, 12:31:40 PM »

It looks like my outliers compared to the conventional wisdom are Cleveland (I think much worse than others, especially with no Watson), Minnesota (I think they win the division), Denver (I don't think Russ adds as much as people think), and Houston (Mills isn't half bad and their D played well at the end of last season).
I think a lot of people are selling Houston short this year. I would be surprised, but not shocked, if they make the playoffs as you predict. The real problem the Texans had last year was the absolutely putrid offensive play calling behind an offensive line that couldn't work with it. Possessions usually went something like this:

2 yard run inside
-3 yard run outside
2 yard check down pass
Punt

The guy who called those plays is gone, and Pep Hamilton (the former QB coach who helped Mills play as well as he did when he was unhampered by the play calling) is now the OC. Mills to me plays a lot like Tom Brady. He likes throwing (and completing) short high percentage passes and doesn't scramble very much, especially in this era of quarterbacks (not suggesting here that he is on Brady's level. They are not even close). The Texans will probably score more than you'd think. The defense, though, is kinda suspect. They played great for their talent level last year, but they lost Justin Reid and they can't generate a pass rush. They have a great future, however.

I feel like my biggest hot take would be that I expect the Chiefs to miss or barely make the playoffs. If Mahomes gets hurt for a long period of time I can't see the rest of the team picking up the slack. Especially now that the defense is average and the division is extremely difficult.

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #2977 on: August 12, 2022, 02:46:43 PM »

Man, I think you guys are drinking the kool-aid.

Houston was 32nd in total offense and 31st in total defense last year. I don't feel like going through a bunch of stats from past seasons, but I'm guessing a team being bottom 2 on both sides of the ball hardly ever happens. There isn't anything about Lovie Smith that makes me think he's going to make any radical improvements. Two of their four wins were against the Jags, who, to me, have the better roster by quite a bit entering this season and were ravaged by their own head coach last year.

I like Mills but there's a lot more to it than that.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2022, 02:49:12 PM by thspfc »
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Whether a team makes the playoffs isn't comparable to whether they are above .500. Part of making the playoffs is getting the wins when you need them to get in, which Brady/Belichick always found a way to do. That's skill. Being above .500 or below .500 is just however things shake out. That's luck.

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #2978 on: August 12, 2022, 02:56:57 PM »

The Texans also beat the Chargers last year and looked pretty good while doing so. Does that mean they're going to be a good team this year? Absolutely not. But they've also kind of sold out to not be completely terrible, by signing a lot of serviceable veterans etc.. Sort of like Seattle, it seems like they're trying to be a 6-8 win team that's not the laughingstock of the league, and could absolutely be successful doing so.
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thspfc

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #2979 on: August 18, 2022, 08:08:38 PM »

Watson ends up with an 11 game suspension. Still less than I think it should be, but it's enough to put a major dent into the Browns season. The 5 games that he'll now be missing are:

@ Ravens
Bengals
@ Dolphins
@ Bills
Buccaneers

Ouch. I'm changing my predictions a little bit, subtracting two wins for the Browns and adding one each for the Ravens and Bills.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2022, 08:12:21 PM by thspfc »
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Whether a team makes the playoffs isn't comparable to whether they are above .500. Part of making the playoffs is getting the wins when you need them to get in, which Brady/Belichick always found a way to do. That's skill. Being above .500 or below .500 is just however things shake out. That's luck.

jgb191

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #2980 on: August 18, 2022, 09:16:32 PM »

I've said this before:  My Texans exceeded all expectations in 2021 by matching the same number of wins as the 2020 season.  For 2021, I remember the unanimous agreement among all sports fan's prediction that the Texans were going to be winless (0-17).  The four wins should have been more than enough to keep David Culley's job safe -- indeed consideration for Coach of the Year; the players loved playing for him, and a lot of fans (myself included) began to believe in him.  I'm confident Davis Mills will keep improving under our new OC, and the Texans will exceed last year's win total.  Houston can win at least two division games plus two games vs the NFC "Least", plus an additional two games apart from those, bringing the anticipated 2022 record to six wins and 11 losses.  Not low enough to have the top pick next year, but not high enough to challenge for a playoff spot.  And yes I do have high hopes that one of those Texans win can be against Cleveland in Deshaun's Browns debut.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2022, 09:20:17 PM by jgb191 »
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JayhawkCO

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #2981 on: August 18, 2022, 10:45:24 PM »

Watson ends up with an 11 game suspension. Still less than I think it should be, but it's enough to put a major dent into the Browns season. The 5 games that he'll now be missing are:

@ Ravens
Bengals
@ Dolphins
@ Bills
Buccaneers

Ouch. I'm changing my predictions a little bit, subtracting two wins for the Browns and adding one each for the Ravens and Bills.

I know we disagree on the Browns, but I'm quite surprised you thought they could win at Buffalo. Ravens maybe I could have seen, but not against arguably the most complete team in the league.

thspfc

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #2982 on: August 19, 2022, 11:58:43 AM »

Watson ends up with an 11 game suspension. Still less than I think it should be, but it's enough to put a major dent into the Browns season. The 5 games that he'll now be missing are:

@ Ravens
Bengals
@ Dolphins
@ Bills
Buccaneers

Ouch. I'm changing my predictions a little bit, subtracting two wins for the Browns and adding one each for the Ravens and Bills.

I know we disagree on the Browns, but I'm quite surprised you thought they could win at Buffalo. Ravens maybe I could have seen, but not against arguably the most complete team in the league.
I wasn’t necessarily picking the games individually. Trying to pick November games in August is useless. Just had to add two wins to other teams, and it was logical to add them to teams that play the Browns during that stretch.
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Whether a team makes the playoffs isn't comparable to whether they are above .500. Part of making the playoffs is getting the wins when you need them to get in, which Brady/Belichick always found a way to do. That's skill. Being above .500 or below .500 is just however things shake out. That's luck.

thspfc

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #2983 on: August 19, 2022, 12:09:17 PM »

For 2021, I remember the unanimous agreement among all sports fan's prediction that the Texans were going to be winless (0-17).
Absolutely not true, and anyone who seriously predicts that an NFL team is going 0-17 is, uh, not very smart.

Quote
The four wins should have been more than enough to keep David Culley's job safe -- indeed consideration for Coach of the Year;
Lol

Quote
two games vs the NFC "Least"
The East will not be the worst NFC division this year. Last year it was better than the North and barely behind the South (and the east had two playoff teams to the south's one).
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Whether a team makes the playoffs isn't comparable to whether they are above .500. Part of making the playoffs is getting the wins when you need them to get in, which Brady/Belichick always found a way to do. That's skill. Being above .500 or below .500 is just however things shake out. That's luck.

JayhawkCO

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #2984 on: August 19, 2022, 02:24:31 PM »

The East will not be the worst NFC division this year. Last year it was better than the North and barely behind the South (and the east had two playoff teams to the south's one).

The South should easily be the worst NFC division this year if you ask me.

jgb191

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #2985 on: August 23, 2022, 12:34:09 AM »

The Panthers have increased their chances of winning their first weekend when they elected Baker Mayfield to start against his former "home" the Cleveland Browns.  Baker will definitely have a chip on his shoulder.

Note: The word 'home' was in quotes in the above statement in reference to the home he used to take care of in his commercials.  I wish At Home would follow him to Charlotte.

Speaking of the Cleveland Browns:  My gut feeling tells me that Deshaun's suspension was chosen by the league to be 11 games due to the Deshaun's debut as a Browns against his former team; good time for my Texans to show Deshaun what he's been missing out on since he quit on the team.
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webny99

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #2986 on: August 23, 2022, 08:26:18 AM »

Meanwhile I found it very odd that Watson will return against the Texans. It will make for an awkward return and I would have thought the league would want to avoid that.
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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #2987 on: August 23, 2022, 08:34:52 AM »

Meanwhile I found it very odd that Watson will return against the Texans. It will make for an awkward return and I would have thought the league would want to avoid that.

An multi-year NFL contract requires being rostered for 6 games in order to move to the next year, so that's why Watson agreed to an 11 game suspension but would fight anything longer. That Houston is the 12th game is coincidental to the financial reality.
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Ted$8roadFan

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #2988 on: August 23, 2022, 08:54:21 AM »

Meanwhile I found it very odd that Watson will return against the Texans. It will make for an awkward return and I would have thought the league would want to avoid that.

An multi-year NFL contract requires being rostered for 6 games in order to move to the next year, so that's why Watson agreed to an 11 game suspension but would fight anything longer. That Houston is the 12th game is coincidental to the financial reality.

The real question will be how rusty Watson will be, having played his last game nearly 24 months ago.
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jgb191

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #2989 on: August 23, 2022, 11:54:43 AM »

Speaking of Deshaun's debut with the Browns and return to the NRG/Reliant Stadium, it there any way the league could flex that game into a prime time slot?  Either move them to the second time slot (labeling it "America's Game of the Week") or the evening time slot on SNF or MNF?  Replace the Colts/Cowboys game with Browns/Texans on Sunday Night would be great for ratings I would like to believe.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2022, 11:58:12 AM by jgb191 »
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thspfc

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #2990 on: August 23, 2022, 01:08:24 PM »

Replace the Colts/Cowboys game with Browns/Texans on Sunday Night would be great for ratings I would like to believe.
Uh, no. Watson’s return or not, Colts/Cowboys would beat Browns/Texans in ratings. Two decent teams, one of which has the largest following in the league, as opposed to one decent team and one awful team, neither of which have huge fanbases.
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Whether a team makes the playoffs isn't comparable to whether they are above .500. Part of making the playoffs is getting the wins when you need them to get in, which Brady/Belichick always found a way to do. That's skill. Being above .500 or below .500 is just however things shake out. That's luck.

JayhawkCO

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #2991 on: August 23, 2022, 01:11:26 PM »

Replace the Colts/Cowboys game with Browns/Texans on Sunday Night would be great for ratings I would like to believe.
Uh, no. Watson’s return or not, Colts/Cowboys would beat Browns/Texans in ratings. Two decent teams, one of which has the largest following in the league, as opposed to one decent team and one awful team, neither of which have huge fanbases.

thspfc and I agree on something!  :)

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #2992 on: August 23, 2022, 01:57:21 PM »

Replace the Colts/Cowboys game with Browns/Texans on Sunday Night would be great for ratings I would like to believe.
Uh, no. Watson’s return or not, Colts/Cowboys would beat Browns/Texans in ratings. Two decent teams, one of which has the largest following in the league, as opposed to one decent team and one awful team, neither of which have huge fanbases.

thspfc and I agree on something!  :)

One thing no one can object to about the Cowboys is that no matter how good or bad they are, they will get huge ratings. And there's invariably a Colts hype train every year, this year more than ever because of Matty Ice.
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SectorZ

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #2993 on: August 23, 2022, 03:42:18 PM »

Replace the Colts/Cowboys game with Browns/Texans on Sunday Night would be great for ratings I would like to believe.
Uh, no. Watson’s return or not, Colts/Cowboys would beat Browns/Texans in ratings. Two decent teams, one of which has the largest following in the league, as opposed to one decent team and one awful team, neither of which have huge fanbases.

I don't think the NFL wants to showcase Watson in his week 1 either. That would come across as incredibly tone deaf.
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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #2994 on: August 23, 2022, 06:17:09 PM »

Replace the Colts/Cowboys game with Browns/Texans on Sunday Night would be great for ratings I would like to believe.
Uh, no. Watson’s return or not, Colts/Cowboys would beat Browns/Texans in ratings. Two decent teams, one of which has the largest following in the league, as opposed to one decent team and one awful team, neither of which have huge fanbases.

I don't think the NFL wants to showcase Watson in his week 1 either. That would come across as incredibly tone deaf.


Yeah but, I don't think it's coincidence his suspension is up for the Browns/Texans game.  I think when the sides were negotiating the length of the extended suspension, that game was chose on purpose.  I don't put it past the NFL to make money/gain ratings from this mess. 
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NWI_Irish96

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #2995 on: August 23, 2022, 06:21:38 PM »

Replace the Colts/Cowboys game with Browns/Texans on Sunday Night would be great for ratings I would like to believe.
Uh, no. Watson’s return or not, Colts/Cowboys would beat Browns/Texans in ratings. Two decent teams, one of which has the largest following in the league, as opposed to one decent team and one awful team, neither of which have huge fanbases.

I don't think the NFL wants to showcase Watson in his week 1 either. That would come across as incredibly tone deaf.


Yeah but, I don't think it's coincidence his suspension is up for the Browns/Texans game.  I think when the sides were negotiating the length of the extended suspension, that game was chose on purpose.  I don't put it past the NFL to make money/gain ratings from this mess. 

As I noted upthread, it was chosen on purpose but nothing to do with the Texans. Watson needs to be on the roster for 6 games for his salary increase for the next season to kick in, so 11 games was the longest suspension that he wouldn't fight.
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ethanhopkin14

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #2996 on: August 23, 2022, 06:33:24 PM »

Replace the Colts/Cowboys game with Browns/Texans on Sunday Night would be great for ratings I would like to believe.
Uh, no. Watson’s return or not, Colts/Cowboys would beat Browns/Texans in ratings. Two decent teams, one of which has the largest following in the league, as opposed to one decent team and one awful team, neither of which have huge fanbases.

I don't think the NFL wants to showcase Watson in his week 1 either. That would come across as incredibly tone deaf.


Yeah but, I don't think it's coincidence his suspension is up for the Browns/Texans game.  I think when the sides were negotiating the length of the extended suspension, that game was chose on purpose.  I don't put it past the NFL to make money/gain ratings from this mess. 

As I noted upthread, it was chosen on purpose but nothing to do with the Texans. Watson needs to be on the roster for 6 games for his salary increase for the next season to kick in, so 11 games was the longest suspension that he wouldn't fight.

I still don't think it's 100 % all that and just a coincidence the Texans are playing. 
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jemacedo9

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #2997 on: August 23, 2022, 07:13:37 PM »

I think that back in the Spring, the league figured there was a reasonable change it would be 11 games and scheduled that game that way on purpose.
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webny99

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #2998 on: August 23, 2022, 07:35:27 PM »

Replace the Colts/Cowboys game with Browns/Texans on Sunday Night would be great for ratings I would like to believe.
Uh, no. Watson’s return or not, Colts/Cowboys would beat Browns/Texans in ratings. Two decent teams, one of which has the largest following in the league, as opposed to one decent team and one awful team, neither of which have huge fanbases.

I don't think the NFL wants to showcase Watson in his week 1 either. That would come across as incredibly tone deaf.


Yeah but, I don't think it's coincidence his suspension is up for the Browns/Texans game.  I think when the sides were negotiating the length of the extended suspension, that game was chose on purpose.  I don't put it past the NFL to make money/gain ratings from this mess. 

As I noted upthread, it was chosen on purpose but nothing to do with the Texans. Watson needs to be on the roster for 6 games for his salary increase for the next season to kick in, so 11 games was the longest suspension that he wouldn't fight.

Learn something new every day I guess. That would actually make sense, I'm just surprised it wasn't mentioned in any of the reporting that I saw anywhere.
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thspfc

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Re: NFL (2022 Season)
« Reply #2999 on: August 24, 2022, 11:59:42 AM »

Replace the Colts/Cowboys game with Browns/Texans on Sunday Night would be great for ratings I would like to believe.
Uh, no. Watson’s return or not, Colts/Cowboys would beat Browns/Texans in ratings. Two decent teams, one of which has the largest following in the league, as opposed to one decent team and one awful team, neither of which have huge fanbases.

I don't think the NFL wants to showcase Watson in his week 1 either. That would come across as incredibly tone deaf.


Yeah but, I don't think it's coincidence his suspension is up for the Browns/Texans game.  I think when the sides were negotiating the length of the extended suspension, that game was chose on purpose.  I don't put it past the NFL to make money/gain ratings from this mess. 

As I noted upthread, it was chosen on purpose but nothing to do with the Texans. Watson needs to be on the roster for 6 games for his salary increase for the next season to kick in, so 11 games was the longest suspension that he wouldn't fight.

Learn something new every day I guess. That would actually make sense, I'm just surprised it wasn't mentioned in any of the reporting that I saw anywhere.
Does anyone still trust the media? Or think the media reports the whole truth and nothing but the truth? Because they don't. Sports or otherwise.
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Whether a team makes the playoffs isn't comparable to whether they are above .500. Part of making the playoffs is getting the wins when you need them to get in, which Brady/Belichick always found a way to do. That's skill. Being above .500 or below .500 is just however things shake out. That's luck.

 


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