NFL (2024 Season)

[webny99]

FiveThirtyEight on the prospect of the entire NFC East making the playoffs being very much alive entering Week 15: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-entire-nfc-east-can-make-the-playoffs/

If it does happen, I better not hear people complaining about the amount of nationally televised NFCE games until another division does it.

Not only that, there are a lot of easier targets if you want to complain about the prime time schedule... Broncos, Colts, Raiders, Cardinals, Patriots to name a few. Meanwhile the Jets have 0 prime time games and haven't been on SNF in something like a decade. That should change next season if they end their playoff drought.

[webny99]

Also, we may end up getting a snow game in Buffalo after all. It's looking likely that there will be significant snowfall on Saturday night when the Bills play the Dolphins.

[thspfc]

.500 again last week, 7-7. At 112-92-2 on the season, I need to go 52-12 the rest of the way in order to beat my 2021 self. (So you're saying there's a chance.)

49ers 20, Seahawks 13
Vikings 31, Colts 16
Browns 25, Ravens 14
Bills 28, Dolphins 15
Eagles 30, Bears 27
Jets 22, Lions 14
Steelers 18, Panthers 16
Chiefs 34, Texans 17
Saints 31, Falcons 6
Cowboys 28, Jaguars 20
Broncos 19, Cardinals 13
Raiders 33, Patriots 17
Chargers 24, Titans 21
Buccaneers 21, Bengals 16
Commanders 23, Giants 12
Packers 26, Rams 14

A Dolphins loss, Jets win, and Chargers win would I believe push the Dolphins out of playoff position. The races for the last two wild card spots in both conferences will be fun to watch. Albeit not nearly as chaotic as last year's AFC, which had the 1 and 11 seeds separated by just 2 games at this time, and 8 teams within one game of each other around .500.

[jlam]

7-6 last week

49ers 23, Seahawks 17
Colts 19, Vikings 31
Ravens 19, Browns 21
Dolphins 26, Bills 33
Falcons 23, Saints 28
Steelers 20, Panthers 18
Eagles 34, Bears 24
Chiefs 38, Texans 17
Cowboys 29, Jaguars 23
Lions 31, Jets 28
Cardinals 23, Broncos 21
Patriots 28, Raiders 26
Titans 24, Chargers 22
Bengals 29, Buccaneers 21
Giants 23, Commanders 27
Rams 21, Packers 27

[epzik8]

FiveThirtyEight on the prospect of the entire NFC East making the playoffs being very much alive entering Week 15: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-entire-nfc-east-can-make-the-playoffs/

I'm scared to death about this possibility.

[1995hoo]

I sort of want to see a WAS—NYG tie.

[jgb191]

Meanwhile the Jets have 0 prime time games

That changes a week from tonight when they host Jacksonville on Thursday Night (yes I still consider Thursday Night as "Prime" time).  Please note that all 32 teams are required to play at least one night game each season (Thursday/Sunday/Monday).


Meanwhile my Texans path just gets lots tougher now....KC Chiefs do what they do all the time (even when they're not at their best), grind my Texans team to a pulp.  KC's largest win this season was by 21 points at Phoenix; until Sunday when that game will look like a nailbiter compared to what they're going to do in Reliant/NRG Stadium.  I really wish I could be wrong but I say KC obliterates Houston 44-7 in our house.  When the best team in the league goes up against the worst team, you can't expect anything less than a wipeout.

[thspfc]

It might be kind of funny to watch Seahawks fans slowly descend back to frustration with the team. They want to act like this season doesn't matter, they weren't supposed to be good, the high draft from Denver pick will fix everything, whatever. In reality, if you miss the playoffs after a 6-3 start (and from a position where you had four straight games lined up against losing teams after that 6-3 start), that's a missed opportunity to not only, you know, compete for a Super Bowl, but also to attract free agents and build confidence within the team. And you don't know how many chances you're going to get before the team falls apart - Carroll is 71, Geno is 32, and injuries can strike anyone at any time. Some teams have more to lose than others, but nobody is truly "playing with house money" .

[1995hoo]

The NFL announced that there will be no game in Mexico City next season due to renovations at Estadio Azteca. Reportedly they may play a second game in Germany instead.

[webny99]

It might be kind of funny to watch Seahawks fans slowly descend back to frustration with the team. They want to act like this season doesn't matter, they weren't supposed to be good, the high draft from Denver pick will fix everything, whatever. In reality, if you miss the playoffs after a 6-3 start (and from a position where you had four straight games lined up against losing teams after that 6-3 start), that's a missed opportunity to not only, you know, compete for a Super Bowl, but also to attract free agents and build confidence within the team. And you don't know how many chances you're going to get before the team falls apart - Carroll is 71, Geno is 32, and injuries can strike anyone at any time. Some teams have more to lose than others, but nobody is truly "playing with house money" .

It would be disappointing if they missed the playoffs, but I think the Russ trade looking like a massive win, plus a great rookie draft class and Geno looking like a legit starter is all that really matters to Pete Carroll and their front office. Players are a different story, but they're still .500 with a great chance to finish with a winning record - better than half the league and far from the tankfest many expected.

And there's also the fact that preseason expectations, as they often do, became untethered from reality. They were never going to be a terrible team, nor was Denver going to be a top tier SB contender in that division and conference. Imagine predicting in the preseason that the Denver pick and Seattle's own pick would be in the same range; that would have been called crazy. Then imagine predicting that the two picks wouldn't be in the same range because Denver's would be top-5 and Seattle would be in the thick of the playoff race in December? That would have been laughed off the face of the earth, but here we are.

[gr8daynegb]

It might be kind of funny to watch Seahawks fans slowly descend back to frustration with the team. They want to act like this season doesn't matter, they weren't supposed to be good, the high draft from Denver pick will fix everything, whatever. In reality, if you miss the playoffs after a 6-3 start (and from a position where you had four straight games lined up against losing teams after that 6-3 start), that's a missed opportunity to not only, you know, compete for a Super Bowl, but also to attract free agents and build confidence within the team. And you don't know how many chances you're going to get before the team falls apart - Carroll is 71, Geno is 32, and injuries can strike anyone at any time. Some teams have more to lose than others, but nobody is truly "playing with house money" .

It would be disappointing if they missed the playoffs, but I think the Russ trade looking like a massive win, plus a great rookie draft class and Geno looking like a legit starter is all that really matters to Pete Carroll and their front office. Players are a different story, but they're still .500 with a great chance to finish with a winning record - better than half the league and far from the tankfest many expected.

And there's also the fact that preseason expectations, as they often do, became untethered from reality. They were never going to be a terrible team, nor was Denver going to be a top tier SB contender in that division and conference. Imagine predicting in the preseason that the Denver pick and Seattle's own pick would be in the same range; that would have been called crazy. Then imagine predicting that the two picks wouldn't be in the same range because Denver's would be top-5 and Seattle would be in the thick of the playoff race in December? That would have been laughed off the face of the earth, but here we are.

Now for the Seahawks going into 2023 will be interesting how they deal with the QB spot. Geno Smith has had a good/great season to right now but they will have to decide if they found their guy going forward or if this was a one year fluke with Geno and he reverts to what most everyone thought of Geno before this season.  If I'm Geno though I stay with the Seahawks

[thspfc]

I think the Russ trade looking like a massive win, plus a great rookie draft class and Geno looking like a legit starter is all that really matters to Pete Carroll and their front office.

And this perfectly sets up my point: every team's ultimate goal is to win a Super Bowl. Different teams are at different points along that journey, but when you're on top of your division by a game and a half in mid-November, missing the playoffs is squandering an excellent opportunity. Regardless of how bright you predict the future is, that's a loss of a year that you could have accomplished the ultimate goal, and that absolutely does matter. Does Seattle end this season feeling more optimistic than when they began it? Absolutely, but that doesn't mean the end result doesn't matter.

[ethanhopkin14]

I think the Russ trade looking like a massive win, plus a great rookie draft class and Geno looking like a legit starter is all that really matters to Pete Carroll and their front office.

And this perfectly sets up my point: every team's ultimate goal is to win a Super Bowl. Different teams are at different points along that journey, but when you're on top of your division by a game and a half in mid-November, missing the playoffs is squandering an excellent opportunity. Regardless of how bright you predict the future is, that's a loss of a year that you could have accomplished the ultimate goal, and that absolutely does matter. Does Seattle end this season feeling more optimistic than when they began it? Absolutely, but that doesn't mean the end result doesn't matter.

I would argue that not every team's ultimate goal is to win the Super Bowl.  I would say not ever team in professional sports' ultimate goal is to win their respective championship.  I would say every team's ultimate goal is definitely to make money. 

There are some owners/ownership groups who flat out don't want to win, but instead would be fine making a profit every year even if the team stinks.  Winning the Super Bowl takes a lot of work and you have to spend a lot of money on players and staff which hurts your bottom line.  Some owners don't want to do that and would rather make $X being mediocre or horrible rather than make $Y being competitive or being the champion, so long as $X>$Y (or the potential Y could be.  Small market teams differ from large market teams). 

Case in point is clearly the Detroit Lions.  The Twins are another one I think fits the mold.  Maybe they haven't publicly came out and said it, but how they conduct their business is a dead giveaway. 

I don't think they want to fail; I just think if being successful gets in the way of the maximum profit they can make in a year, they have no incentive to improve their competitiveness.  They would rather float along with the players they have and if one day, they just happen to be good, then it's a win/win, but if they aren't, then whatever. 

[webny99]

I think the Russ trade looking like a massive win, plus a great rookie draft class and Geno looking like a legit starter is all that really matters to Pete Carroll and their front office.

And this perfectly sets up my point: every team's ultimate goal is to win a Super Bowl. Different teams are at different points along that journey, but when you're on top of your division by a game and a half in mid-November, missing the playoffs is squandering an excellent opportunity. Regardless of how bright you predict the future is, that's a loss of a year that you could have accomplished the ultimate goal, and that absolutely does matter. Does Seattle end this season feeling more optimistic than when they began it? Absolutely, but that doesn't mean the end result doesn't matter.

I agree that it's disappointing to miss the playoffs because of the stakes and you never know what can happen once you're in, but at no point have the Seahawks looked like a true contender, nor should anyone have been expecting them to be a true contender this season.

Their Super Bowl odds will be extremely slim even if they make the playoffs - probably even if they win a playoff game! They'd have to win four straight as heavy underdogs, and I'm not saying that's impossible, but it would be one of the most surprising sports stories of all time, easily topping the Geno renaissance. In short: they're not going to win it all anyways, so it's more about the future.

I would argue that not every team's ultimate goal is to win the Super Bowl.  I would say not ever team in professional sports' ultimate goal is to win their respective championship.  I would say every team's ultimate goal is definitely to make money. 
...

Case in point is clearly the Detroit Lions.  The Twins are another one I think fits the mold.  Maybe they haven't publicly came out and said it, but how they conduct their business is a dead giveaway. 

It is worth distinguishing between ownership, who often cares more about profits, and the coaching staffs, who are almost always trying to get the most out of what they have and win a championship.

Another example would be the Titans, at least with their now-fired GM who was quite possibly fired because he was looking more towards the future didn't try to go all-in on a Super Bowl.

[thspfc]

I think the Russ trade looking like a massive win, plus a great rookie draft class and Geno looking like a legit starter is all that really matters to Pete Carroll and their front office.

And this perfectly sets up my point: every team's ultimate goal is to win a Super Bowl. Different teams are at different points along that journey, but when you're on top of your division by a game and a half in mid-November, missing the playoffs is squandering an excellent opportunity. Regardless of how bright you predict the future is, that's a loss of a year that you could have accomplished the ultimate goal, and that absolutely does matter. Does Seattle end this season feeling more optimistic than when they began it? Absolutely, but that doesn't mean the end result doesn't matter.

I would argue that not every team's ultimate goal is to win the Super Bowl.  I would say not ever team in professional sports' ultimate goal is to win their respective championship.  I would say every team's ultimate goal is definitely to make money. 

There are some owners/ownership groups who flat out don't want to win, but instead would be fine making a profit every year even if the team stinks.  Winning the Super Bowl takes a lot of work and you have to spend a lot of money on players and staff which hurts your bottom line.  Some owners don't want to do that and would rather make $X being mediocre or horrible rather than make $Y being competitive or being the champion, so long as $X>$Y (or the potential Y could be.  Small market teams differ from large market teams). 

Case in point is clearly the Detroit Lions.  The Twins are another one I think fits the mold.  Maybe they haven't publicly came out and said it, but how they conduct their business is a dead giveaway. 

I don't think they want to fail; I just think if being successful gets in the way of the maximum profit they can make in a year, they have no incentive to improve their competitiveness.  They would rather float along with the players they have and if one day, they just happen to be good, then it's a win/win, but if they aren't, then whatever.

I agree that some owners likely have ulterior motives, but for the players, coaches, GM, etc., a Super Bowl is the goal.

I agree that it's disappointing to miss the playoffs because of the stakes and you never know what can happen once you're in, but at no point have the Seahawks looked like a true contender, nor should anyone have been expecting them to be a true contender this season.

Their Super Bowl odds will be extremely slim even if they make the playoffs - probably even if they win a playoff game! They'd have to win four straight as heavy underdogs, and I'm not saying that's impossible, but it would be one of the most surprising sports stories of all time, easily topping the Geno renaissance. In short: they're not going to win it all anyways, so it's more about the future.

Let's go back in time. 2021, the Rams are 7-4, having lost three straight. 2021, the Bengals are 7-6, having lost two straight and four of their last six. 2020, the Bucs are 7-5, having lost two straight and three of their last four. 2019, the Chiefs are 6-4, having lost four of their last six. 2017, the Eagles just lost their MVP-caliber quarterback for the season. 2016, the Falcons are 7-5, having lost four of their last seven. 2014, the Seahawks are 6-4, looking like a shell of the team that won it all the previous year.

How many people had any of those teams making the Super Bowl, or winning it, at those moments? I would guess that none of them were in the top 5 per betting odds. Sure, Seattle would be a longer shot than most if not all of those, but not by a whole lot, especially if Geno is as legit as people think he is.

[skluth]

I live well out of market for my team, the Packers. I had Sunday Ticket for years but it eventually got too expensive and DirecTV's service went to crap after ATT bought it so I've lived with going to bars and now NFL RedZone (my favorite way to spend fall Sundays). Apple has now dropped out of the competition for the Sunday NFL package leaving the evil empires of Google (YouTube) and Amazon to battle for the rights. I'm guessing both will charge a premium for it but at least I won't have to have an ugly dish on my home if I get it.

[thspfc]

Jeff Saturday sure is thankful for Urban Meyer right now. Saturday is probably a worse NFL coach, but Meyer's off-field chaos means that his will be the more widely remembered disaster.

Only 885 pass yards in the last two games for Cousins. Really makes you wonder why they pay him so much. Big contract for a top 10 QB? How will they ever survive?

That was awful refereeing, though nobody will remember it because the Vikings won anyway. There's literally no reason to not let it play out when the ball is on the ground. Who knows what prompted them to blow the whistle because Jackson wasn't even close to being down.

And the funniest part of that game? Turnovers didn't even play a role in the Colts collapse. The only one was the fumble the refs messed up, which the Vikings didn't score off anyways. Indy just got completely ran over, like an FCS team playing Alabama, for the entire second half.

[thspfc]

Also: "garbage time" . It's garbage time until it isn't, huh?

Garbage time is not a legitimate argument for anything unless it's like a 3-4 possession deficit in the last few minutes of the 4th and backups are in. Professional athletes don't stop going hard, whether they're on the winning side or the losing side.

[Ted$8roadFan]

What an epic fail by the Colts, which saved an epic fail by the Vikings. It's hard to tell how good Minnesota is, having fallen 33-0 only to cap off the biggest comeback in NFL history. It's very easy to see how bad the Colts are, having blown another big lead. What must Jim Irsay be thinking right now?

[webny99]

I was pretty critical of the Vikings after they beat the Bills, but after they snatched away the "Largest Comeback" title this afternoon, I'm really more just wowed by what an insane season they're having than annoyed by their record. So, time to give them their flowers for (1) the largest comeback, obviously, (2) tying the NFL record for one score wins, and (3) clinching the division a week before Christmas. To do all three in one game is truly next level.

Also: "garbage time" . It's garbage time until it isn't, huh?

Garbage time is not a legitimate argument for anything unless it's like a 3-4 possession deficit in the last few minutes of the 4th and backups are in. Professional athletes don't stop going hard, whether they're on the winning side or the losing side.

I certainly agree that there is no such thing as garbage time in the first half, probably even in the first three quarters. With that said... not all big leads are created equal. This Vikings game today and the game they played a few weeks ago against the Cowboys is a great example of the contrast. The Cowboys were truly dominant to go up 40-3 and really didn't feel like the Vikings had any chance at all. They just didn't have it that day and it was beyond reconciling before their offense could get going. Today was a lot more... weird. The Colts were up 33-0 with only one offensive touchdown. It was a disaster on the scoreboard for the Vikings, but it felt completely different since it was clear the Colts really weren't 33 points better than the Vikings, they just had a defensive and special teams TD to build up the lead and then kept settling for FG's.

Jeff Saturday sure is thankful for Urban Meyer right now. Saturday is probably a worse NFL coach, but Meyer's off-field chaos means that his will be the more widely remembered disaster.

Expectations aren't the same for interim coaches. I don't think the Saturday hire is anywhere close to the disaster level of Urban Meyer (and firing Reich was a much worse move than hiring Saturday), but that subject can wait for the offseason.

[tdindy88]

I first saw the score to the Colts game and loved it when it was 33-0. Then I saw the score later in the 4th quarter and I started thinking "surely the Vikings won't complete the comeback will they?" I checked the score after overtime and started laughing when they did. Time to clean house over at 56th Street.

[DenverBrian]

I live well out of market for my team, the Packers. I had Sunday Ticket for years but it eventually got too expensive and DirecTV's service went to crap after ATT bought it so I've lived with going to bars and now NFL RedZone (my favorite way to spend fall Sundays). Apple has now dropped out of the competition for the Sunday NFL package leaving the evil empires of Google (YouTube) and Amazon to battle for the rights. I'm guessing both will charge a premium for it but at least I won't have to have an ugly dish on my home if I get it.

Until then, a VPN and some internet googling can be your friend.

[epzik8]

Is Browns-Ravens the only game without referee interference today

[epzik8]

Cowboys

[TMETSJETSYT]

Hi, as you can tell by my username, I am a big Jets fan, and I was just wondering if you think they can still make a push for the playoffs. Sitting at 7-7 and 4th in the AFC. If the Patriots and Chargers lose, then we will still be tied, but both teams have tiebreakers against us. Just wondering if y'all think they can still get into the playoffs.