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Author Topic: Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)  (Read 283218 times)

JayhawkCO

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Re: Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)
« Reply #2000 on: November 11, 2021, 01:49:42 PM »

My predictions for the top 10 at the end of the year:

1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Ohio State (12-1)
3. Oklahoma (12-1)
4. Cincinnati (13-0)

5. Alabama (10-2)
6. Notre Dame (11-1)
7. Oregon (11-2)
8. Texas A&M (10-2)
9. Michigan State (10-2)
10. Oklahoma State (10-2)

I think Oregon's win against Ohio State was partially a fluke; Ohio State has a point differential of 233 and Oregon has one of 113 against what I would consider a similar schedule. I get the feeling that Oregon will lose to Utah, either in 2 weeks or in the conference championship. I predict Oklahoma will lose a regular season game but win in the conference championship. If Cincinnati loses and Oklahoma doesn't win the Big 12 championship, then I think Notre Dame has a real chance to crash the playoff.

If Oklahoma loses in a down Big 12, Alabama will jump them even if they do get a second loss, assuming it isn't a blowout or to New Mexico State this weekend.

Chris

If Oklahoma is a 12-1 conference champion, they absolutely get ranked higher than a non-champion Alabama. So does a 12-1 Oregon.

We'll have to agree to disagree.  There's a reason they're currently, what, 8th? while being undefeated.  If you've watched them play, you know they're not that good.  Hell, my boys from KU took a lead into the 4th quarter against them and we've only won one game.

Chris

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Re: Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)
« Reply #2001 on: November 11, 2021, 01:53:16 PM »

My predictions for the top 10 at the end of the year:

1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Ohio State (12-1)
3. Oklahoma (12-1)
4. Cincinnati (13-0)

5. Alabama (10-2)
6. Notre Dame (11-1)
7. Oregon (11-2)
8. Texas A&M (10-2)
9. Michigan State (10-2)
10. Oklahoma State (10-2)

I think Oregon's win against Ohio State was partially a fluke; Ohio State has a point differential of 233 and Oregon has one of 113 against what I would consider a similar schedule. I get the feeling that Oregon will lose to Utah, either in 2 weeks or in the conference championship. I predict Oklahoma will lose a regular season game but win in the conference championship. If Cincinnati loses and Oklahoma doesn't win the Big 12 championship, then I think Notre Dame has a real chance to crash the playoff.

If Oklahoma loses in a down Big 12, Alabama will jump them even if they do get a second loss, assuming it isn't a blowout or to New Mexico State this weekend.

Chris

If Oklahoma is a 12-1 conference champion, they absolutely get ranked higher than a non-champion Alabama. So does a 12-1 Oregon.

We'll have to agree to disagree.  There's a reason they're currently, what, 8th? while being undefeated.  If you've watched them play, you know they're not that good.  Hell, my boys from KU took a lead into the 4th quarter against them and we've only won one game.

Chris

They also still have to play Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and then one of those teams again. If they go 3-1 in that stretch, with a conference championship, there's no chance they're ranked below any 2-loss non-champion. Zero. I'd bet any amount of money on it.
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JayhawkCO

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Re: Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)
« Reply #2002 on: November 11, 2021, 01:57:16 PM »

My predictions for the top 10 at the end of the year:

1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Ohio State (12-1)
3. Oklahoma (12-1)
4. Cincinnati (13-0)

5. Alabama (10-2)
6. Notre Dame (11-1)
7. Oregon (11-2)
8. Texas A&M (10-2)
9. Michigan State (10-2)
10. Oklahoma State (10-2)

I think Oregon's win against Ohio State was partially a fluke; Ohio State has a point differential of 233 and Oregon has one of 113 against what I would consider a similar schedule. I get the feeling that Oregon will lose to Utah, either in 2 weeks or in the conference championship. I predict Oklahoma will lose a regular season game but win in the conference championship. If Cincinnati loses and Oklahoma doesn't win the Big 12 championship, then I think Notre Dame has a real chance to crash the playoff.

If Oklahoma loses in a down Big 12, Alabama will jump them even if they do get a second loss, assuming it isn't a blowout or to New Mexico State this weekend.

Chris

If Oklahoma is a 12-1 conference champion, they absolutely get ranked higher than a non-champion Alabama. So does a 12-1 Oregon.

We'll have to agree to disagree.  There's a reason they're currently, what, 8th? while being undefeated.  If you've watched them play, you know they're not that good.  Hell, my boys from KU took a lead into the 4th quarter against them and we've only won one game.

Chris

They also still have to play Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and then one of those teams again. If they go 3-1 in that stretch, with a conference championship, there's no chance they're ranked below any 2-loss non-champion. Zero. I'd bet any amount of money on it.

I think our discussion is probably moot as they could very easily lose two of those games.

Chris

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Re: Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)
« Reply #2003 on: November 11, 2021, 02:31:02 PM »

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Re: Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)
« Reply #2004 on: November 13, 2021, 11:38:01 AM »

Cincinnatiís last four games:

27-20 vs Navy (2-8)
31-12 vs Tulane (1-8)
28-20 vs Tulsa (3-6)
45-28 vs USF (2-8)

Itís been really sloppy. Their games against simply terrible opponents have been too close in the first half. This team is not better than Alabama or Ohio State. For that reason, they do not dEsErVe to be ranked above either of those teams. You can say that OSU and Bama played close last week against Nebraska and LSU; Nebraska and LSU, while not great, are miles better than the teams that Cincinnati has been struggling to beat for the last month.

Before you complain about being dIsReSpEcTeD, win by a lot in the games that youíre supposed to win by a lot.
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Whether a team makes the playoffs isn't comparable to whether they are above .500. Part of making the playoffs is getting the wins when you need them to get in, which Brady/Belichick always found a way to do. That's skill. Being above .500 or below .500 is just however things shake out. That's luck.

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Re: Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)
« Reply #2005 on: November 14, 2021, 08:55:17 AM »

I know it's a rarity for FCS (1-AA) teams to beat FBS (1-A) teams.

Even more rare for one to be the favorite... on the road...

And cover by 20 points...

Kudos to UMass for being on the losing side of this one, https://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore/_/gameId/401286304
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Re: Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)
« Reply #2006 on: November 14, 2021, 10:26:12 AM »

My predictions for the top 10 at the end of the year:

1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Ohio State (12-1)
3. Oklahoma (12-1)
4. Cincinnati (13-0)

5. Alabama (10-2)
6. Notre Dame (11-1)
7. Oregon (11-2)
8. Texas A&M (10-2)
9. Michigan State (10-2)
10. Oklahoma State (10-2)

I think Oregon's win against Ohio State was partially a fluke; Ohio State has a point differential of 233 and Oregon has one of 113 against what I would consider a similar schedule. I get the feeling that Oregon will lose to Utah, either in 2 weeks or in the conference championship. I predict Oklahoma will lose a regular season game but win in the conference championship. If Cincinnati loses and Oklahoma doesn't win the Big 12 championship, then I think Notre Dame has a real chance to crash the playoff.

If Oklahoma loses in a down Big 12, Alabama will jump them even if they do get a second loss, assuming it isn't a blowout or to New Mexico State this weekend.

Chris

If Oklahoma is a 12-1 conference champion, they absolutely get ranked higher than a non-champion Alabama. So does a 12-1 Oregon.

We'll have to agree to disagree.  There's a reason they're currently, what, 8th? while being undefeated.  If you've watched them play, you know they're not that good.  Hell, my boys from KU took a lead into the 4th quarter against them and we've only won one game.

Chris

They also still have to play Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and then one of those teams again. If they go 3-1 in that stretch, with a conference championship, there's no chance they're ranked below any 2-loss non-champion. Zero. I'd bet any amount of money on it.

I think our discussion is probably moot as they could very easily lose two of those games.

Chris

One down, one to go.

Chris

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Re: Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)
« Reply #2007 on: November 14, 2021, 01:28:04 PM »

UConn, one of the worst 1-A teams, visited Clemson in a "body bag" game. The Win Probability Chart for UConn peaked at 1.2%. However...

They did take the opening kickoff 99 yards to the end zone for a quick 7-0 lead, and they held on to that lead for almost 12 minutes. Those were the only points they would score. Their total offense for the game was the same as that 99-yard run.

Final: 44-7.  https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401282684
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Re: Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)
« Reply #2008 on: November 20, 2021, 10:56:53 PM »

Ohio State 56-7 Michigan State
Utah 38-7 Oregon

Turns out, a tight game from week 2 doesnít justify refusing to believe your eyes for two months thereafter.
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Whether a team makes the playoffs isn't comparable to whether they are above .500. Part of making the playoffs is getting the wins when you need them to get in, which Brady/Belichick always found a way to do. That's skill. Being above .500 or below .500 is just however things shake out. That's luck.

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Re: Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)
« Reply #2009 on: November 21, 2021, 05:00:16 PM »

Ohio State 56-7 Michigan State
Utah 38-7 Oregon

Turns out, a tight game from week 2 doesnít justify refusing to believe your eyes for two months thereafter.
Precisely.

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Re: Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)
« Reply #2010 on: November 27, 2021, 04:37:35 PM »

HARBAUGH BEAT OHIO

THE WORLD IS ENDING

Max Rockatansky

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Re: Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)
« Reply #2011 on: November 27, 2021, 04:40:16 PM »

HARBAUGH BEAT OHIO

THE WORLD IS ENDING

Iím fine with letting the world burn.
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Re: Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)
« Reply #2012 on: November 27, 2021, 07:48:48 PM »

And Minnesota beats Wisconsin at home for the first time in 18 years.
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Re: Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)
« Reply #2013 on: November 27, 2021, 07:59:55 PM »

Looks like we could have Auburn and Wake Forest in the Gator Bowl. Iíll be there if that happens.

EDIT: Even if it doesnít, I may still go.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2021, 08:04:28 PM by kevinb1994 »
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Re: Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)
« Reply #2014 on: November 27, 2021, 10:47:58 PM »

And Minnesota beats Wisconsin at home for the first time in 18 years.
Disappointing season for Wisconsin. The Badgers need to get the right quarterback sometime. Year after year it's proven that in modern college football, running the ball alone doesn't get you very far. You absolutely have to be able to consistently complete mid-range and downfield passes in order to contend for a premier conference title/Playoff berth.

I don't understand the notion that Paul Chryst can have the Wisconsin job as long as he wants to no matter what. He inherited a program that typically finished with 2-4 losses each season, and he is averaging 3.3 losses per season, including half-length 2020. With the amount of talent that Wisconsin has relative to the other teams in the west - significantly more than everyone except for Iowa and occasionally Minnesota - I would not be surprised if Chryst's seat warms up a little by this time next year.

It would be really nice to watch a team that you actually have an ounce of faith in when they are losing. Or when they need to pick up a first down on 3rd and more than 6 yards. But with no passing game, that's not the reality right now.
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Whether a team makes the playoffs isn't comparable to whether they are above .500. Part of making the playoffs is getting the wins when you need them to get in, which Brady/Belichick always found a way to do. That's skill. Being above .500 or below .500 is just however things shake out. That's luck.

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Re: Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)
« Reply #2015 on: November 27, 2021, 10:49:28 PM »

Ohio State 56-7 Michigan State
Utah 38-7 Oregon

Turns out, a tight game from week 2 doesnít justify refusing to believe your eyes for two months thereafter.

Turns out it never really mattered.
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JayhawkCO

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Re: Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)
« Reply #2016 on: November 27, 2021, 11:37:24 PM »

My predictions for the top 10 at the end of the year:

1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Ohio State (12-1)
3. Oklahoma (12-1)
4. Cincinnati (13-0)

5. Alabama (10-2)
6. Notre Dame (11-1)
7. Oregon (11-2)
8. Texas A&M (10-2)
9. Michigan State (10-2)
10. Oklahoma State (10-2)

I think Oregon's win against Ohio State was partially a fluke; Ohio State has a point differential of 233 and Oregon has one of 113 against what I would consider a similar schedule. I get the feeling that Oregon will lose to Utah, either in 2 weeks or in the conference championship. I predict Oklahoma will lose a regular season game but win in the conference championship. If Cincinnati loses and Oklahoma doesn't win the Big 12 championship, then I think Notre Dame has a real chance to crash the playoff.

If Oklahoma loses in a down Big 12, Alabama will jump them even if they do get a second loss, assuming it isn't a blowout or to New Mexico State this weekend.

Chris

If Oklahoma is a 12-1 conference champion, they absolutely get ranked higher than a non-champion Alabama. So does a 12-1 Oregon.

We'll have to agree to disagree.  There's a reason they're currently, what, 8th? while being undefeated.  If you've watched them play, you know they're not that good.  Hell, my boys from KU took a lead into the 4th quarter against them and we've only won one game.

Chris

They also still have to play Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and then one of those teams again. If they go 3-1 in that stretch, with a conference championship, there's no chance they're ranked below any 2-loss non-champion. Zero. I'd bet any amount of money on it.

I think our discussion is probably moot as they could very easily lose two of those games.

Chris

One down, one to go.

Chris

Mmhmm.

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Re: Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)
« Reply #2017 on: November 28, 2021, 12:10:01 AM »

And Minnesota beats Wisconsin at home for the first time in 18 years.
Disappointing season for Wisconsin. The Badgers need to get the right quarterback sometime. Year after year it's proven that in modern college football, running the ball alone doesn't get you very far. You absolutely have to be able to consistently complete mid-range and downfield passes in order to contend for a premier conference title/Playoff berth.

I don't understand the notion that Paul Chryst can have the Wisconsin job as long as he wants to no matter what. He inherited a program that typically finished with 2-4 losses each season, and he is averaging 3.3 losses per season, including half-length 2020. With the amount of talent that Wisconsin has relative to the other teams in the west - significantly more than everyone except for Iowa and occasionally Minnesota - I would not be surprised if Chryst's seat warms up a little by this time next year.

It would be really nice to watch a team that you actually have an ounce of faith in when they are losing. Or when they need to pick up a first down on 3rd and more than 6 yards. But with no passing game, that's not the reality right now.

They showed some stats at the start of the season that Wisconsin's defense is second to only Alabama's over the last several years. You'd think they'd have no problem finding a not-shitty QB given that's almost legitimately all that keeps them from being CFP contenders year after year.
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Re: Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)
« Reply #2018 on: November 28, 2021, 01:10:35 AM »

Well, this was a very exciting weekend of college football... even though most of the games I cared about didn’t go the way I wanted.

At least my Utes won. They’re headed for a rematch with Oregon next weekend in the Pac-12 championship, with a Rose Bowl spot on the line.

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Re: Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)
« Reply #2019 on: November 28, 2021, 04:11:06 AM »

I swear if a 2 loss Alabama or Ohio State makes it in over undefeated Cincinnati CFB is rigged and I don't even care about Cincinatti
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Re: Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)
« Reply #2020 on: November 28, 2021, 08:20:45 AM »

Ohio State 56-7 Michigan State
Utah 38-7 Oregon

Turns out, a tight game from week 2 doesnít justify refusing to believe your eyes for two months thereafter.

Turns out it never really mattered.
You couldíve just accepted your L instead of trying to play it off . . .
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Whether a team makes the playoffs isn't comparable to whether they are above .500. Part of making the playoffs is getting the wins when you need them to get in, which Brady/Belichick always found a way to do. That's skill. Being above .500 or below .500 is just however things shake out. That's luck.

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Re: Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)
« Reply #2021 on: November 28, 2021, 08:25:04 AM »

I swear if a 2 loss Alabama or Ohio State makes it in over undefeated Cincinnati CFB is rigged and I don't even care about Cincinatti
Thatís not going to happen. What could happen is Oklahoma State, if they win the Big 12, jumping Cincy. Then, if Bama beats UGA and Michigan beats Iowa, it would be 1) Bama 2) Michigan 3) Georgia 4) OK State. That is the only way that I see an undefeated Cincinnati getting left out.
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Whether a team makes the playoffs isn't comparable to whether they are above .500. Part of making the playoffs is getting the wins when you need them to get in, which Brady/Belichick always found a way to do. That's skill. Being above .500 or below .500 is just however things shake out. That's luck.

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Re: Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)
« Reply #2022 on: November 28, 2021, 08:40:16 AM »

Whichever way you slice it, at least 3 of the 5 teams with multiple Playoff berths are out this year: Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma for sure, likely Notre Dame, and quite possibly Alabama. If Alabama loses by one possession to UGA, I think they should be in, as one of the clear four best teams in the country. If they lose by double digits then they should be out, barring chaos.

Ultimate chaos scenario:
- Georgia blows out Alabama
- Baylor beats OK State
- Iowa beats Michigan
- Houston beats Cincinnati
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Whether a team makes the playoffs isn't comparable to whether they are above .500. Part of making the playoffs is getting the wins when you need them to get in, which Brady/Belichick always found a way to do. That's skill. Being above .500 or below .500 is just however things shake out. That's luck.

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Re: Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)
« Reply #2023 on: November 28, 2021, 11:35:04 AM »

Whichever way you slice it, at least 3 of the 5 teams with multiple Playoff berths are out this year: Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma for sure, likely Notre Dame, and quite possibly Alabama. If Alabama loses by one possession to UGA, I think they should be in, as one of the clear four best teams in the country. If they lose by double digits then they should be out, barring chaos.

Ultimate chaos scenario:
- Georgia blows out Alabama
- Baylor beats OK State
- Iowa beats Michigan
- Houston beats Cincinnati

Alabama blew their chance to keep their spot with a loss to Georgia when they got super lucky to beat a mediocre Auburn team last night.

In your ultimate chaos scenario above, Georgia is #1, Notre Dame is #2, Baylor is #3, and maybe Alabama holds #4 over Michigan, and maybe even Oregon sneaks in if they beat Utah. The committee likes conference champions.
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Re: Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)
« Reply #2024 on: November 28, 2021, 11:40:13 AM »

I swear if a 2 loss Alabama or Ohio State makes it in over undefeated Cincinnati CFB is rigged and I don't even care about Cincinatti
Thatís not going to happen. What could happen is Oklahoma State, if they win the Big 12, jumping Cincy. Then, if Bama beats UGA and Michigan beats Iowa, it would be 1) Bama 2) Michigan 3) Georgia 4) OK State. That is the only way that I see an undefeated Cincinnati getting left out.

Yeah, that's the only way a 13-0 Cincinnati gets left out, and even then I think it's very close with Oklahoma State.

Going 13-0 is really hard to do. Even if your schedule isn't that difficult, winning every game is still incredibly hard. There are a lot of teams in the AAC, CUSA, MWC, Sun Belt and MAC who had easy schedules and none of them other than Cincinnati managed to go 12-0.
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