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Are there any turns/exits that can be predicted by license plate?

Started by hotdogPi, August 14, 2016, 09:13:18 AM

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hotdogPi

I can't think of a good title for this thread. If you can think of a better title that isn't too long, I will change it. However, here's what I mean:

Surface road hypothetical example: You're on a road near the NY/CT border. At a particular intersection where the only options are straight and right, most people with a New York license plate go straight, while most people with a Connecticut license plate turn right. Bonus points if traffic flow would be improved by the traffic light recognizing the state that the license plates are from.

Freeway hypothetical example: You're on a highway near the GA/FL border. At a specific exit, most people from Florida exit, while most people from Georgia stay on the highway.

I can't think of any examples other than international borders, but I know that commercial plates are likely to exit at Exit 39 on I-93 in Massachusetts compared to continuing straight. (It's not an example because many non-commercial cars exit there.)
Clinched, minus I-93 (I'm missing a few miles and my file is incorrect)

Traveled, plus US 13, 44, and 50, and several state routes

I will be in Burlington VT for the eclipse.


briantroutman

Do you mean like the I-95/I-295 split in Delaware? Anyone with NJ or NY plates is likely to exit for I-295 (and by association, the NJ Turnpike), while PA and DE plates will stay on I-95.

Another example: Many times, I have encountered people with NY plates (and typically dealer stickers or other evidence that the driver is from upstate) exiting from I-80 westbound onto US 15 southbound. Why? Because for years, AAA's designated route on the US 15 corridor was to take US 15 to Williamsport, then I-180 to I-80, then reconnect to US 15–whereas most locals would either take US 15 straight through or take I-180 to PA 147 and then connect to US 11 and then 15 at Northumberland. This may be less true now that most people reflexively rely on GPS to go anywhere.

hotdogPi

Quote from: briantroutman on August 14, 2016, 09:32:44 AM
Do you mean like the I-95/I-295 split in Delaware? Anyone with NJ or NY plates is likely to exit for I-295 (and by association, the NJ Turnpike), while PA and DE plates will stay on I-95.

That seems to be an example (as long as it's accurate).
Clinched, minus I-93 (I'm missing a few miles and my file is incorrect)

Traveled, plus US 13, 44, and 50, and several state routes

I will be in Burlington VT for the eclipse.

andrewkbrown

I-295 in DC/MD. Maryland plates leaving Washington DC by way of I-295 South can be expected to be taking Exit 1A for the Capital Beltway outer loop to the Maryland suburbs, or Exit 1B for National Harbor, MD. Virginia plates would be expected to be taking Exit 1C for the Capital Beltway inner loop, and crossing the Woodrow Wilson Bridge over the Potomac into Virginia.

https://www.google.com/maps/@38.8008935,-77.021059,3a,49.7y,141.64h,85.9t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sprczfwYT3lIpMq4T4YjXyg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656
Firefighter/Paramedic
Washington DC Fire & EMS

jwolfer

In States with county codes or names there are probably a lot of such intersections.  Very few people opt for County name tags in Florida now. It's mostly "Sunshine State" or "In God We Trust", you have the option of county or one of those slogans as standard issue..

But back in the heyday of county tags off the Jacksonville beltway the exits for SR 21 and US 17 were heavily Clay County

epzik8

Before the I-95/895 split just north of Baltimore was reconfigured, drivers with license plates like New Jersey, New York and Massachusetts would keep left approaching the split intending to take I-95 through the Fort McHenry Tunnel, since that's considered the through route in Baltimore. Those lanes were actually for the I-895 Harbor Tunnel Thruway. I-95 split off to the right and then crossed over I-895. NJ/NY/New England drivers would realize this at the last second and cut in front of those going straight onto I-895 so that they could stay on I-95, even though I-895 ends up back at I-95 15 miles to the south. With the reconfiguration of this interchange, traffic staying on I-95 at the split is now to keep left, and traffic going through the Harbor Tunnel now uses the right lanes. I don't miss that old I-95 flyover ramp over I-895.
From the land of red, white, yellow and black.
____________________________

My clinched highways: http://tm.teresco.org/user/?u=epzik8
My clinched counties: http://mob-rule.com/user-gifs/USA/epzik8.gif

coatimundi

Just south of me, on Highway 1, there's an exit only lane where it goes from 3 to 2 after several miles. There are signs and striping, but no overhead signs. It's become a game for me to see if I can guess who will jump at the last minute. License plates are one indicator, as AZ plated rental cars have a black sticker, but you can also sometimes guess a CA plated rental car beyond the barcode on the window just by the look of the plate (and, of course, lack of plate holder and bumper stickers on the car). I also use car type though: a convertible Mustang or Camaro is almost certainly a tourist, but a luxury SUV, often with a Bay Area dealership's plate holder, is also typically a tourist ready to jump as well.
Really this behavior is more to do with the faults of relying on GPS: the voice tells you to continue on Highway 1 but, since you're not being aware of your surroundings, you don't get the cue and have to make a very dangerous maneuver (which is mostly the cause of backups at the exit each weekend in the summers).

Jardine

I've only ever seen a car exit I-80 in metro Omaha via an on-ramp twice, but both times the car had 59 county (Sarpy) plates.

:)

sparker

If the state differentiates commercial and non-commercial plates, a good place to check predictability of travel direction would be the I-15/I-40 split in Barstow, CA:  I would venture an educated guess that most commercial plates -- particularly on semi rigs, would be inclined to turn off onto I-40 east, which is, by default, the principal route out of L.A. and its port area to most of the rest of the country.  Smaller rigs (bobtail, etc.) would probably tend, albeit to a relatively small degree, to follow I-15 because of Las Vegas (and possibly even St. George or Salt Lake) service.  Non-commercial plates would likely split in an obvious manner -- Rocky Mountain states from Colorado north would likely remain on I-15, as would California plates (Vegas, here we come!), while more easterly states might opt for I-40 (the possible exception would be Nebraska and the Dakotas).  Winter, of course, would likely direct more aggregate traffic toward I-40. 

It would be interesting to parse all this out -- even splitting 4-wheel-drive vehicles out from the rest of the non-commercial traffic (initially, I thought that Colorado would be an attractant for the drivers of that type of vehicle, but upon further consideration, outlying areas in northern Arizona and New Mexico would provide an opportunity for off-road adventure as well). 

An intuitive conclusion would be that commercial traffic would likely show a significant bias toward I-40, while non-commercial traffic, particularly with in-state drivers, would likely tend to remain on I-15.  While I-40's desert mileage does have more in the way of historical and unique artifacts, the mass-market attraction of Las Vegas is difficult to overcome in terms of sheer volume.

FrCorySticha

As Montana is one of the states with county numbering on the plates, you can usually predict with reasonable success which vehicles are going to turn at the major exits heading north from I-94 and I-90. 27, 37, and most 17 plates will usually exit at the MT 16 exit (Exit 213); while 41, 20, and some 17 will use the MT 200S exit (Exit 211); and so on.

fillup420

When traveling on US 64 east of Raleigh, NC, any car with an NC special "OBX" plate is almost certainly going all the way to the east end of 64 on the Outer Banks.


iPhone

corco

Exiting from I-15 onto US 93 north of Las Vegas, pretty much all the cars have Idaho plates, and at least in my experience roughly 70% of the cars outside of towns on that highway have Idaho plates...300+ miles away from Idaho.

jp the roadgeek

Mass Pike westbound at Exit 9.  Most cars with license plates of CT and south will exit onto I-84, while those with MA plates and of states west of the Appalachians will stay on the Pike.  NY and PA could go either way; depends on what part of the state the car is from (NYC area vs upstate for NY; most PA cars will exit unless its from less than 20 miles south of the NY border west of I-81 or the Erie area.
Interstates I've clinched: 97, 290 (MA), 291 (CT), 291 (MA), 293, 295 (DE-NJ-PA), 295 (RI-MA), 384, 391, 395 (CT-MA), 395 (MD), 495 (DE), 610 (LA), 684, 691, 695 (MD), 695 (NY), 795 (MD)

Sykotyk

I-90 WB toward Erie. 90% of Ontario plates turn onto I-79 south.

7/8

Quote from: Sykotyk on August 16, 2016, 10:23:10 PM
I-90 WB toward Erie. 90% of Ontario plates turn onto I-79 south.

Very true, my family's done the drive down I-79 countless times, but not once have we stayed on I-90 west of Erie! :)

Of course, I've been on I-90 farther west, but for that, we go through the Michigan border crossings.

lordsutch

Quote from: 1 on August 14, 2016, 09:13:18 AM
Freeway hypothetical example: You're on a highway near the GA/FL border. At a specific exit, most people from Florida exit, while most people from Georgia stay on the highway.

I'd imagine FL I-75 exit 435 (at I-10) northbound is that way; you can pretty much predict anyone with a Georgia or TN or snowbird license plate will go straight while Florida and other Gulf Coast state plates will exit.

Similarly I'd imagine at GA I-75 exit 242 southbound, anyone with an Alabama plate will take I-85 while anyone with a Florida plate (or a snowbird plate) will take I-75. Northbound at 251B, the snowbirds and Tennesseans will take I-75 while anyone with a Carolinas plate will take I-85.

And at the I-75/475 splits around Macon, virtually the only non-trucks staying on I-75 will have Georgia plates.



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