Best State to Live Permanently?

Started by webny99, May 16, 2020, 07:54:47 PM

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hbelkins

The overriding issue for me would be tax policy. Tennessee has no income tax, but onerous sales taxes. Some states have no sales taxes, but the property taxes are punitive. The cost of living would be a prime consideration for me. How much do essentials such as food, housing, utilities, etc., cost? All things being equal, I'd choose the state that lets me keep more of my own money.

Climate-wise, is any place ideal? The south is too hot and humid in the summer. The north is too cold and snowy in the winter. Scenery, diversity, urban amenities, etc., are meaningless to me, although I'd definitely choose to live in a rural area over an urban or suburban one.


Government would be tolerable if not for politicians and bureaucrats.


oscar

Quote from: webny99 on May 17, 2020, 05:42:22 PM
Nothing as dramatic as the Sierra Nevadas, but we certainly have mountains, forests, lakes, and farm country. Desert is the only notable exception.

Sorry, but having been out west a lot including California, I just can't be impressed by the Appalachian Molehills.

Quote from: hbelkins on May 17, 2020, 06:04:09 PM
Climate-wise, is any place ideal?

San Diego, and parts of Hawaii (not the rainy east coasts), are pretty close to perfect. But you pay through the nose for that privilege.

The "Banana Belt" of Colorado (west of Pueblo) would also be a candidate, if you can handle the altitude.
my Hot Springs and Highways pages, with links to my roads sites:
http://www.alaskaroads.com/home.html

SP Cook

The problem with Nate Silver, who also does the "ESPN win probability" numbers, has nothing to do with left-right politics.  It has to do with the fact that he is wrong more often than he is right, and that he hedges his bets such that he never faces the consequences of his unscientific methods.

Most pollsters express their predictions as %ages, with a "margin of error".  Most sports touts express their as a clear choice of A or B against the spread.  Silver expresses his as a % chance of A or B happening.  Which is cowardly.  What value is there in that?  Silver, in the last election said there was a 90% chance of A, which implied a 10% chance of B, and then actually TOOK CREDIT for "accurately" predicting that there was a possibility of B.  Other pollsters, equally wrong, at least had the b***s to admit it.  Watch me do Silver's act.  In the next election for Dog Catcher in Dumptruck County, AR, I say there is a 85% chance of A and a 15% chance of B.   An unloseable, and valueless, opinion.  Likewise in sports, Silver never says "100%"  and thus is, in his cowardly way, never wrong.  Watch me do that.  In the game this fall between Auburn and Furman, I say there is a 90% chance Auburn wins.  Now should Furman win, look at me, I told you it was possible.

Junk science and cowardice.


webny99

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 17, 2020, 05:45:31 PM
Quote from: webny99 on May 17, 2020, 05:42:22 PM
Serious question: Besides desert, what does California have that New York doesn't?
Real mountains, all you have out east is big hills at best.  Mountains aren't the same when they don't have potential volcanic activity or top 10,000 feet in elevation.
I do have to take issue with real mountains being over 10,000 feet. The standard accepted definition is at least 1000 feet, and NY has many that are double, triple, even quadruple that. The Adirondacks are very much real mountains, you can call them big hills, but they are proper mountains even if they're not the Rockies or the Sierras. Besides, the quaint and forested nature of them has its own beauty. They are very different from the mountains out West that tower above the tree line, but they are not bad or inauthentic by any means.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 17, 2020, 05:45:31 PM
The coast line here (especially in Big Sur and the Lost Coast) is pretty unique and far more dramatic than the East Coast.
That I will hand to you. Parts of the Great Lakes have impressive coastline, but not really in New York, unfortunately. And our Atlantic coastline is quite flat. You have to go up to Maine to get the true rugged Atlantic coastline.

noelbotevera

Does Canada count as a state? Totally wouldn't mind living in Quebec forever.


That aside, I'm sick of living out in the boondocks. I'd probably pick a city that (a) supports engineering, (b) has good restaurants, and (c) doesn't require me to sell my liver for the sake of paying the rent. I guess I'd pick NYC or Boston. Recreational opportunities aren't terribly far away and both cities are diverse enough to support many types of restaurants from different cultures. Cost of living in both cities would be steep, but still possible to find an apartment for a reasonable price, if you know where to look.

webny99

Quote from: oscar on May 17, 2020, 06:10:20 PM
Quote from: webny99 on May 17, 2020, 05:42:22 PM
Nothing as dramatic as the Sierra Nevadas, but we certainly have mountains, forests, lakes, and farm country. Desert is the only notable exception.

Sorry, but having been out west a lot including California, I just can't be impressed by the Appalachian Molehills.

I don't mind if you're unimpressed as long as it is acknowledged that they are, indeed, mountains. Smaller, sure, less grand, certainly. But they are still beautiful, especially in the fall.

texaskdog

#31
I love Texas.  As long as you don't hate heat.  Mountains west, open areas west, desert west, pine trees east, the gulf, lots of lakes, wonderful winters.  living in the center of it you can go 10 hours NW, 9 hours to El Paso.  Pretty much a little of everything here.  When I was 37 I moved away from MN to Texas, never looked back.

And no state income tax.

texaskdog

#32
Quote from: SP Cook on May 17, 2020, 06:12:15 PM
The problem with Nate Silver, who also does the "ESPN win probability" numbers, has nothing to do with left-right politics.  It has to do with the fact that he is wrong more often than he is right, and that he hedges his bets such that he never faces the consequences of his unscientific methods.

Most pollsters express their predictions as %ages, with a "margin of error".  Most sports touts express their as a clear choice of A or B against the spread.  Silver expresses his as a % chance of A or B happening.  Which is cowardly.  What value is there in that?  Silver, in the last election said there was a 90% chance of A, which implied a 10% chance of B, and then actually TOOK CREDIT for "accurately" predicting that there was a possibility of B.  Other pollsters, equally wrong, at least had the b***s to admit it.  Watch me do Silver's act.  In the next election for Dog Catcher in Dumptruck County, AR, I say there is a 85% chance of A and a 15% chance of B.   An unloseable, and valueless, opinion.  Likewise in sports, Silver never says "100%"  and thus is, in his cowardly way, never wrong.  Watch me do that.  In the game this fall between Auburn and Furman, I say there is a 90% chance Auburn wins.  Now should Furman win, look at me, I told you it was possible.

Junk science and cowardice.



taking your personal political preference out of it, he got a lot of credit in 2012.  In 2016 he got cocky and gave Hilary way too big of a chance of winning and had egg on his face.  They do have interesting political analysis, even if too politically biased.

You can either say there is a so much pct chance of either way and never claim to be "right" or make a prediction.  Agreed, you can't have it both ways.

Science does this too.  They say they are only models, but then they say other things are "settled facts".  Which is it?????

hotdogPi

Quote from: texaskdog on May 17, 2020, 08:04:08 PM
In 2016 he got cocky and gave Hilary way too big of a chance of winning and had egg on his face.  They do have interesting political analysis, even if too politically biased.

Exactly the opposite. He gave Trump a higher chance than other predictions.

FiveThirtyEight: 70%-30%
PredictIt (betting market): 80%-20%
New York Times: 85%-15%
HuffPost: 98%-2%
Clinched, minus I-93 (I'm missing a few miles and my file is incorrect)

Traveled, plus US 13, 44, and 50, and several state routes

I will be in Burlington VT for the eclipse.

Roadgeekteen

Quote from: 1 on May 17, 2020, 08:10:53 PM
Quote from: texaskdog on May 17, 2020, 08:04:08 PM
In 2016 he got cocky and gave Hilary way too big of a chance of winning and had egg on his face.  They do have interesting political analysis, even if too politically biased.

Exactly the opposite. He gave Trump a higher chance than other predictions.

FiveThirtyEight: 70%-30%
PredictIt (betting market): 80%-20%
New York Times: 85%-15%
HuffPost: 98%-2%
Lol at Huffpost.
God-emperor of Alanland, king of all the goats and goat-like creatures

Current Interstate map I am making:

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?hl=en&mid=1PEDVyNb1skhnkPkgXi8JMaaudM2zI-Y&ll=29.05778059819179%2C-82.48856825&z=5

STLmapboy

I'm not old enough to make an entirely informed decision, but from my travels Texas seems like a good place to be. Favorable taxes, diverse terrain, and more. Utah would be a close runner up, but if I could never leave than I wouldn't want to be stuck there.
Teenage STL area roadgeek.
Missouri>>>>>Illinois

kkt

Quote from: Bruce on May 17, 2020, 03:02:57 AM
Washington has all the biomes that anyone would ever want. Rainforests, regular forests, mountains (including volcanoes), deserts, steepes, dry forests, and irrigated semiarid land. Our natural disasters are a bit less frequent, with rare earthquakes (but looming risks), seasonal windstorms, and very rare tornadoes.

And it's a bit more affordable than California. And our (plentiful) water tastes good. There's also no income tax, which is nice for high earners (hence Bezos and Gates staying here) but sucks for most people.

And high altitude alpine and subalpine landscapes, and glaciers.  And beaches.  Some big city things to do if you like theatre, movies, music, etc. but also lots of countryside.  In the west half of the state, mild summers and mild winters.

Are we supposed to be considering job availability, housing prices, tax rates, and cost of living?  Quality of public schools?

texaskdog

Quote from: Ketchup99 on May 16, 2020, 11:15:49 PM
Texas has everything. Coastline, Cajuns, desert, cities, the South, the Southwest, plains. It's got everything you could want but forests.

what about the Piney Woods, all of East Texas?

texaskdog

Quote from: STLmapboy on May 17, 2020, 09:32:34 PM
I'm not old enough to make an entirely informed decision, but from my travels Texas seems like a good place to be. Favorable taxes, diverse terrain, and more. Utah would be a close runner up, but if I could never leave than I wouldn't want to be stuck there.

I have nothing against Mormons but when we considered moving there, our Mormon friend said it's really hard to live there w/o being Mormon due to discrimination...nothing bad it's just hard to get jobs over them, etc.  I can probably pull it off but my wife can't smile that big.

Flint1979

I honestly get bored with Michigan. I live in a rather boring part of the state (Saginaw County) and there aren't many inland lakes around here, the land is flat for the most part and I've seen just about everything in a hundred mile radius at some point or another in my life. You can't go east because Lake Huron is in the way, same with going west to any extreme you'll eventually make it to Lake Michigan, then going too far north you get in the middle of nowhere easily and the cities and villages north of Saginaw, Bay City and Midland are small and far and few in between. Marquette is the largest city in the state north of Midland and Bay City at about 21,000. Alpena and Traverse City are the largest Lower Peninsula cities north of that same line with about 10,000 and 15,000 respectfully. The lakes are nice and there's enough to do but it's the same scenery all the time.

Going to the Upper Peninsula is pretty cool but the whole time you are going up there you are anticipating going over the Mackinac Bridge and then once you get over the bridge it's like what do I do now? Most people get off I-75 and take US-2 westbound or M-123. There isn't a whole lot up there though and unless you are really into outdoors kind of stuff you'll get bored quick.


Max Rockatansky

#40
Quote from: texaskdog on May 17, 2020, 10:25:18 PM
Quote from: STLmapboy on May 17, 2020, 09:32:34 PM
I'm not old enough to make an entirely informed decision, but from my travels Texas seems like a good place to be. Favorable taxes, diverse terrain, and more. Utah would be a close runner up, but if I could never leave than I wouldn't want to be stuck there.

I have nothing against Mormons but when we considered moving there, our Mormon friend said it's really hard to live there w/o being Mormon due to discrimination...nothing bad it's just hard to get jobs over them, etc.  I can probably pull it off but my wife can't smile that big.

That was a real thing I witnessed first hand in many communities in Northern Arizona, it wasn't something that I expected.  Granted, it didn't compare to the infinitely worse and outright vicious racism I witnessed from the Detroit suburban communities directed at minorities.  That's one of the biggest reasons I'm glad to be away from in the Midwest, the rabid but yet somehow passive-aggressive middle class/white picket fence Baby Boomers.  Michigan was surreal being back in during 2017 and 2019 when it was apparent those views on life were starting to die out with the younger generations coming of age. 

On the whole Arizona had a ton of problems with racism in general in the early 2000s, especially directed at the Hispanic communities.  It was ugly, unwarranted, and felt like much of what I saw from the same types of people in the Midwest.  That's one of the things I don't miss about the Phoenix Area, hopefully it has gotten better this past decade with the Metro Area becoming more diverse. 

Quote from: kkt on May 17, 2020, 09:42:48 PM
Quote from: Bruce on May 17, 2020, 03:02:57 AM
Washington has all the biomes that anyone would ever want. Rainforests, regular forests, mountains (including volcanoes), deserts, steepes, dry forests, and irrigated semiarid land. Our natural disasters are a bit less frequent, with rare earthquakes (but looming risks), seasonal windstorms, and very rare tornadoes.

And it's a bit more affordable than California. And our (plentiful) water tastes good. There's also no income tax, which is nice for high earners (hence Bezos and Gates staying here) but sucks for most people.

And high altitude alpine and subalpine landscapes, and glaciers.  And beaches.  Some big city things to do if you like theatre, movies, music, etc. but also lots of countryside.  In the west half of the state, mild summers and mild winters.

Are we supposed to be considering job availability, housing prices, tax rates, and cost of living?  Quality of public schools?

I consider things like the housing prices, cost of living, and taxes (I could care less about the schools personally).  All of those things skyrocketing out of control are why I won't got back to the Los Angeles Area and left the Phoenix Area.

Quote from: Flint1979 on May 17, 2020, 10:25:32 PM
I honestly get bored with Michigan. I live in a rather boring part of the state (Saginaw County) and there aren't many inland lakes around here, the land is flat for the most part and I've seen just about everything in a hundred mile radius at some point or another in my life. You can't go east because Lake Huron is in the way, same with going west to any extreme you'll eventually make it to Lake Michigan, then going too far north you get in the middle of nowhere easily and the cities and villages north of Saginaw, Bay City and Midland are small and far and few in between. Marquette is the largest city in the state north of Midland and Bay City at about 21,000. Alpena and Traverse City are the largest Lower Peninsula cities north of that same line with about 10,000 and 15,000 respectfully. The lakes are nice and there's enough to do but it's the same scenery all the time.

Going to the Upper Peninsula is pretty cool but the whole time you are going up there you are anticipating going over the Mackinac Bridge and then once you get over the bridge it's like what do I do now? Most people get off I-75 and take US-2 westbound or M-123. There isn't a whole lot up there though and unless you are really into outdoors kind of stuff you'll get bored quick.

The best thing Detroit had going IMO was that it had all the major sports easily available.  Outdoor activity required a significant drive to a Lake Shore somewhere and it was often easier just to go out of state.

Max Rockatansky

Quote from: webny99 on May 17, 2020, 07:22:49 PM
Quote from: oscar on May 17, 2020, 06:10:20 PM
Quote from: webny99 on May 17, 2020, 05:42:22 PM
Nothing as dramatic as the Sierra Nevadas, but we certainly have mountains, forests, lakes, and farm country. Desert is the only notable exception.

Sorry, but having been out west a lot including California, I just can't be impressed by the Appalachian Molehills.

I don't mind if you're unimpressed as long as it is acknowledged that they are, indeed, mountains. Smaller, sure, less grand, certainly. But they are still beautiful, especially in the fall.

Amusingly enough there isn't a universal definition of a mountain.  But something that I can tell you having lived in places like New England and Midwest is that the mountains out East aren't in the same league as those in the Mountain West or West Coast.  It took a really long time to get National Parks east of the Rockies en mass for a reason. 

J3ebrules

I'm going to (after years of railing against the place myself) go out on a limb and say New Jersey. I'm going to go further and say the western side of Jersey - and maybe even South.

It's way too late and I'm not writing an essay on my phone here, so I'll just give a shortlist on benefits:

1. 4 distinct seasons; even if they are all over the calendar a bit
2. Something for everybody in terms of shore, city, farm/rural, small towns, and even little mountains up in the skylands by the Poconos.
3. Sandwiched between two major cities (job opportunities, social lives, nightlife, things to do)
- but those cities are separated from us by rivers...
4. Excellent schools
5. Decent pay to cost of living ratio. You can go on about our taxes, but they do go down as you go south/west and job pay does scale as well.
6. They pump your gas. You think it's weird... until the dead of winter, when you're too chilly to complain. You don't need to tip, and gas prices are lower than the surrounding states anyway, so there's literally no reason to complain.
7. Surrounded by interesting history, as part of the 13 original colonies... and we have a lot of road firsts as well! You all wouldn't have a Good Roads Movement without the American Wheelmen of NJ.
8. Not known for major weather events - yes, some major storms knocked out the eastern half the state; I prefer the western half for that reason as well.
9. Generally no animals that want you dead. Our bears are more defensive than aggressive.
10. Just to make it a Top 10, let me think of one more...  Let's go road related. Free state inspections, not even annually for most vehicles anymore.

I have to admit, this state is growing on me.
Counting the cars on the New Jersey Turnpike - they’ve all come to look for America! (Simon & Garfunkel)

Roadgeekteen

Quote from: J3ebrules on May 18, 2020, 12:43:30 AM
I'm going to (after years of railing against the place myself) go out on a limb and say New Jersey. I'm going to go further and say the western side of Jersey - and maybe even South.

It's way too late and I'm not writing an essay on my phone here, so I'll just give a shortlist on benefits:

1. 4 distinct seasons; even if they are all over the calendar a bit
2. Something for everybody in terms of shore, city, farm/rural, small towns, and even little mountains up in the skylands by the Poconos.
3. Sandwiched between two major cities (job opportunities, social lives, nightlife, things to do)
- but those cities are separated from us by rivers...
4. Excellent schools
5. Decent pay to cost of living ratio. You can go on about our taxes, but they do go down as you go south/west and job pay does scale as well.
6. They pump your gas. You think it's weird... until the dead of winter, when you're too chilly to complain. You don't need to tip, and gas prices are lower than the surrounding states anyway, so there's literally no reason to complain.
7. Surrounded by interesting history, as part of the 13 original colonies... and we have a lot of road firsts as well! You all wouldn't have a Good Roads Movement without the American Wheelmen of NJ.
8. Not known for major weather events - yes, some major storms knocked out the eastern half the state; I prefer the western half for that reason as well.
9. Generally no animals that want you dead. Our bears are more defensive than aggressive.
10. Just to make it a Top 10, let me think of one more...  Let's go road related. Free state inspections, not even annually for most vehicles anymore.

I have to admit, this state is growing on me.
Animals that want you dead is a benefit, not a drawback.
God-emperor of Alanland, king of all the goats and goat-like creatures

Current Interstate map I am making:

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?hl=en&mid=1PEDVyNb1skhnkPkgXi8JMaaudM2zI-Y&ll=29.05778059819179%2C-82.48856825&z=5

Max Rockatansky

Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 18, 2020, 12:44:30 AM
Quote from: J3ebrules on May 18, 2020, 12:43:30 AM
I'm going to (after years of railing against the place myself) go out on a limb and say New Jersey. I'm going to go further and say the western side of Jersey - and maybe even South.

It's way too late and I'm not writing an essay on my phone here, so I'll just give a shortlist on benefits:

1. 4 distinct seasons; even if they are all over the calendar a bit
2. Something for everybody in terms of shore, city, farm/rural, small towns, and even little mountains up in the skylands by the Poconos.
3. Sandwiched between two major cities (job opportunities, social lives, nightlife, things to do)
- but those cities are separated from us by rivers...
4. Excellent schools
5. Decent pay to cost of living ratio. You can go on about our taxes, but they do go down as you go south/west and job pay does scale as well.
6. They pump your gas. You think it's weird... until the dead of winter, when you're too chilly to complain. You don't need to tip, and gas prices are lower than the surrounding states anyway, so there's literally no reason to complain.
7. Surrounded by interesting history, as part of the 13 original colonies... and we have a lot of road firsts as well! You all wouldn't have a Good Roads Movement without the American Wheelmen of NJ.
8. Not known for major weather events - yes, some major storms knocked out the eastern half the state; I prefer the western half for that reason as well.
9. Generally no animals that want you dead. Our bears are more defensive than aggressive.
10. Just to make it a Top 10, let me think of one more...  Let's go road related. Free state inspections, not even annually for most vehicles anymore.

I have to admit, this state is growing on me.
Animals that want you dead is a benefit, not a drawback.

Wouldn't the Jersey Devil technically be an animal that wants to kill pretty much everything that moves?...if you believe in that kind of thing.

Flint1979



Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 17, 2020, 11:01:28 PM
Quote from: texaskdog on May 17, 2020, 10:25:18 PM
Quote from: STLmapboy on May 17, 2020, 09:32:34 PM
I'm not old enough to make an entirely informed decision, but from my travels Texas seems like a good place to be. Favorable taxes, diverse terrain, and more. Utah would be a close runner up, but if I could never leave than I wouldn't want to be stuck there.

I have nothing against Mormons but when we considered moving there, our Mormon friend said it's really hard to live there w/o being Mormon due to discrimination...nothing bad it's just hard to get jobs over them, etc.  I can probably pull it off but my wife can't smile that big.

That was a real thing I witnessed first hand in many communities in Northern Arizona, it wasn't something that I expected.  Granted, it didn't compare to the infinitely worse and outright vicious racism I witnessed from the Detroit suburban communities directed at minorities.  That's one of the biggest reasons I'm glad to be away from in the Midwest, the rabid but yet somehow passive-aggressive middle class/white picket fence Baby Boomers.  Michigan was surreal being back in during 2017 and 2019 when it was apparent those views on life were starting to die out with the younger generations coming of age. 

On the whole Arizona had a ton of problems with racism in general in the early 2000s, especially directed at the Hispanic communities.  It was ugly, unwarranted, and felt like much of what I saw from the same types of people in the Midwest.  That's one of the things I don't miss about the Phoenix Area, hopefully it has gotten better this past decade with the Metro Area becoming more diverse. 

Quote from: kkt on May 17, 2020, 09:42:48 PM
Quote from: Bruce on May 17, 2020, 03:02:57 AM
Washington has all the biomes that anyone would ever want. Rainforests, regular forests, mountains (including volcanoes), deserts, steepes, dry forests, and irrigated semiarid land. Our natural disasters are a bit less frequent, with rare earthquakes (but looming risks), seasonal windstorms, and very rare tornadoes.

And it's a bit more affordable than California. And our (plentiful) water tastes good. There's also no income tax, which is nice for high earners (hence Bezos and Gates staying here) but sucks for most people.

And high altitude alpine and subalpine landscapes, and glaciers.  And beaches.  Some big city things to do if you like theatre, movies, music, etc. but also lots of countryside.  In the west half of the state, mild summers and mild winters.

Are we supposed to be considering job availability, housing prices, tax rates, and cost of living?  Quality of public schools?

I consider things like the housing prices, cost of living, and taxes (I could care less about the schools personally).  All of those things skyrocketing out of control are why I won't got back to the Los Angeles Area and left the Phoenix Area.

Quote from: Flint1979 on May 17, 2020, 10:25:32 PM
I honestly get bored with Michigan. I live in a rather boring part of the state (Saginaw County) and there aren't many inland lakes around here, the land is flat for the most part and I've seen just about everything in a hundred mile radius at some point or another in my life. You can't go east because Lake Huron is in the way, same with going west to any extreme you'll eventually make it to Lake Michigan, then going too far north you get in the middle of nowhere easily and the cities and villages north of Saginaw, Bay City and Midland are small and far and few in between. Marquette is the largest city in the state north of Midland and Bay City at about 21,000. Alpena and Traverse City are the largest Lower Peninsula cities north of that same line with about 10,000 and 15,000 respectfully. The lakes are nice and there's enough to do but it's the same scenery all the time.

Going to the Upper Peninsula is pretty cool but the whole time you are going up there you are anticipating going over the Mackinac Bridge and then once you get over the bridge it's like what do I do now? Most people get off I-75 and take US-2 westbound or M-123. There isn't a whole lot up there though and unless you are really into outdoors kind of stuff you'll get bored quick.

The best thing Detroit had going IMO was that it had all the major sports easily available.  Outdoor activity required a significant drive to a Lake Shore somewhere and it was often easier just to go out of state.

Detroit is a great sports town indeed. The past few years haven't been too good for any Detroit team though. All are last place material but Detroit is still a great sports town with the four major sports.

I've never been a Detroit sports fan though, I opted to go with rival Chicago (Sox, Hawks, Bears, Bulls) but I respect the teams in Detroit they are all historic teams in their respective sports.

I agree with that coming from Detroit it's at least a three hour drive to any significant lake community. I'm talking like as you go north of Arenac County. Indiana's dunes and the western part of Michigan are just as easily accessible. And there are some parts of the U.P. that are difficult to access.

A trip from Detroit to the U.P. is a journey. It's 289 miles from downtown Detroit to the Mackinac Bridge. It's just as easy to go to Chicago or especially Cleveland. I think you could make it from Detroit to Cleveland before you'd make it up north in Michigan.

NWI_Irish96

Quote from: SP Cook on May 17, 2020, 06:12:15 PM
The problem with Nate Silver, who also does the "ESPN win probability" numbers, has nothing to do with left-right politics.  It has to do with the fact that he is wrong more often than he is right, and that he hedges his bets such that he never faces the consequences of his unscientific methods.

Most pollsters express their predictions as %ages, with a "margin of error".  Most sports touts express their as a clear choice of A or B against the spread.  Silver expresses his as a % chance of A or B happening.  Which is cowardly.  What value is there in that?  Silver, in the last election said there was a 90% chance of A, which implied a 10% chance of B, and then actually TOOK CREDIT for "accurately" predicting that there was a possibility of B.  Other pollsters, equally wrong, at least had the b***s to admit it.  Watch me do Silver's act.  In the next election for Dog Catcher in Dumptruck County, AR, I say there is a 85% chance of A and a 15% chance of B.   An unloseable, and valueless, opinion.  Likewise in sports, Silver never says "100%"  and thus is, in his cowardly way, never wrong.  Watch me do that.  In the game this fall between Auburn and Furman, I say there is a 90% chance Auburn wins.  Now should Furman win, look at me, I told you it was possible.

Junk science and cowardice.



As a statistician, I can tell you his methods are pretty sound.

As you noted, polls provide percentages with a +/- margin of error. What he is doing is talking all of those polls, analyzing them, and creating a predictive model that assigns a % likelihood to each outcome. As someone else noted, he gave Trump a 30% chance of winning in 2016 when everybody else was giving him less than 20%. He recognized systematic flaws in polling that nobody else did, though those flaws were more pronounced than even he realized.

Back to the original question - there really isn't a universal answer because everybody has different preferences. I've enjoyed visiting the south but the climate is too warm and humid for me to consider living there. If you care about the cost of living either coast becomes difficult. If you care about living near your parents or other family members that becomes limiting as well.  I'm fine with Indiana for now, but once my parents are gone, I'm considering northern Arizona. Not humid, but elevated enough so as not to be scorching hot.
Indiana: counties 100%, highways 100%
Illinois: counties 100%, highways 61%
Michigan: counties 100%, highways 56%
Wisconsin: counties 86%, highways 23%

ftballfan

Quote from: webny99 on May 17, 2020, 05:58:19 PM
Ohio, if it had more varied landscape.

The Turnpike has some large hills and rock cuts east of Sandusky and there are some large hills in the Mansfield/Ashland area.

Flint1979

Quote from: ftballfan on May 18, 2020, 10:06:24 AM
Quote from: webny99 on May 17, 2020, 05:58:19 PM
Ohio, if it had more varied landscape.

The Turnpike has some large hills and rock cuts east of Sandusky and there are some large hills in the Mansfield/Ashland area.
SE of Columbus it has more in common with West Virginia too.

webny99

If I had to live in a rural area, it would be very tough to choose, but the top 5 would be Vermont, Maine, Michigan (UP), Montana, and Wyoming.

For a suburban area, call me biased if you want, but I really do think Upstate NY suburbs are among the best in the nation.




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