Thanksgiving travel patterns

[mtantillo]

Here's an interesting question I've always wondered about.  What types of unique travel patterns exist for the Thanksgiving holidays?

We can all agree that the American population is more spread out than ever before, as in, its far more common for families to be separated by 100's or even 1000's of miles, as it is much more culturally acceptable to move to a new place and put down roots.  Obviously, the families will still like to get together for the holidays. 

But......here are some unique patterns I've noticed:

This one is obvious....a lot more traffic leaving "college rich" areas before Thanksgiving and returning after than the other way around.  Two "college rich" areas that immediately pop into mind are Boston and the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia.  Obviously college kids are going to go home to where they grew up for the most part, as opposed to parents coming to the college town to visit, so it makes sense that you'd have a mass exodus from the college towns.  This pattern is somewhat obvious on the Mass Pike and on I-81, at least based on what I've heard. 

Washington DC....the entire city empties out over Thanksgiving.  There are many transplants to the DC area from all over the country, but many of these transplants are transient/temporary, without strong ties to the area.  So they are more likely to travel home for Thanksgiving than have family come to their temporary home.  Though one year I had parents come visit and it was really nice, the city was significantly less crowded than normal. 

New York seems to have a lot more people visiting than leaving.  The city is often jammed the whole Thanksgiving weekend.  My guess...the shopping attracts people from all over (indeed NYC has a reputation internationally for being a good shopping destination, and people come from Europe to go on shopping sprees in December). 

What other patterns are out there?  Any areas with significantly more people heading north than heading south, etc.? 

[formulanone]

South Florida usually has an uptick in traffic between Thanksgiving and Easter/Passover (whichever one is later); obviously, the weather is nicer. And yes, it's not just the old folks who drive slow in the left lane, it's anyone who is lost or on spiked egg nog.

Driving on the Florida's Turnpike on the day before Thanksgiving and the first Sunday afterward is not recommended...the congestion is awful where it "begins" at I-75, people follow too close (four lanes aren't enough during these types of peak travel days), which leads to more accidents, and the rubberneckers exacerbate the issue. Being 20 miles from the nearest exit in any direction when you're not moving is a bitter pill.

Generally, most automobile dealerships and service departments in this area during this time also have more business, testament to the increased traffic. Some of the locals would call me asking "have the snowbirds left?" before scheduling an appointment to bring in their car, due to the wait times.

With that, I enjoy seeing people again from years gone by that I only catch during the holidays; lots of visitors come back home for the holidays, and that's something nice to break the occasional stressful moments of the holidays.

[1995hoo]

I'll concur in Mike's comments about DC and New York. Most of the people who come TO the DC area for Thanksgiving seem to be college students from this area who are coming home for the weekend. From what I've observed in living here since 1974, my generation is the first one in which a large number of people grew up around here. Sure, there are some other long-time residents, but on the whole for the most part people in the "baby boom" generation who live in the DC area are statistically a lot more likely to have come from somewhere else. I don't want to get political, but no doubt the increase in the size of the government during those years contributed to this phenomenon (I say that strictly as an observation).

The other thing I observed growing up around here is that it seemed like everybody had relatives in New York. Lots of people would head to New York to visit those relatives. I don't doubt that in terms of historical reasons once upon a time you had a lot of the immigrants whose first arrival in the US was in New York and so many families have someone who settled there. I wouldn't be surprised if New York's relative ease of access in terms of being a road/rail/air hub contributes as well. It seems to me that in a lot of families there is a real pressure to visit your parents as long as they're around, so to the extent people have parents/grandparents in New York, that surely contributes.

In terms of traffic, though, my big observation has been that in the days before Thanksgiving the northbound traffic is always far worse and on the Sunday afterwards the traffic going south is always worth. I'm sure Mike can concur that the drive from Duke to the DC area (around 260 miles) always took substantially longer that week (often took me six hours instead of the usual four, and that's including bailouts onto US-1 in several different places). One of my professors my second year down there insisted on holding class at 11:00 AM the day before Thanksgiving. 95% of us said "F you" and left the day before. Also, I always hated it that VDOT refused to route the I-95 HOV lanes southbound the Sunday after Thanksgiving just to relieve some of the pressure, though of course the merge at the south end would have been worse.

We used to drive to New York on Thanksgiving morning when I was a little kid. Once that started taking 8 hours, we started going the night before. When THAT started taking 8 hours, my parents said "screw this" and told our relatives they could come down here to visit. That happened all of about two times before we just started doing our own thing instead, but at least they got to see the northbound traffic and understood why we said we wouldn't come any more.

The other major traffic phenomenon I've noted is that for Thanksgiving, more than any other time of year, it seems like you encounter the people who only know one route to get somewhere (for example, the I-95 to New Jersey Turnpike route between DC and New York). Last year the Washington Post's Dr. Gridlock ran his usual pre-Thanksgiving column about alternate routes and several people wrote in afterwards about how they were astonished to learn that you could go through Pennsylvania. It never ceases to surprise me how many people do not look at maps to learn about different ways to go. It's almost as if it's some sort of detested tradition to get stuck in that backup heading up I-95.


I was thinking about Thanksgiving versus Christmas travel recently and I guess the major difference is that Thanksgiving is a much more fixed time period. The vast majority of people have those same days off and plan their travel to be back at work on Monday. Christmas is much more flexible because New Year's is a week later and you don't get quite the same sustained crunch; also, because Christmas moves around in terms of the day of the week, it varies a good deal from year to year in a way that Thanksgiving never will.

[mtantillo]

My "theory" is that areas of the country which were very fast growing (up till the Great Recession hit anyway) with an exploding population will have more people leave town for Thanksgiving, and areas of the country which are experiencing population drain (or at least much slower growth than the areas with exploding population) will have more people visiting. 

For example, I can see the mountains of West Virginia, the rust belt cities, New York/New England having a lot of people come into town.  These would be people that have ties to the area but left for better opportunities elsewhere.  Places in the South, Texas, etc. will have more people leaving, because many of the people there aren't established in the area for many years.  It seems more like "going home for the holidays" when the people who live in an area for a short time travel to visit the places they grew up.

So in conclusion, traffic would likely be heavier heading north and east before thanksgiving, and south/west after Tanksgiving, because the "new" places to live are south and west of the "tradiional"  centers of population in the country. 

I rarely drove home for Thanksgiving, always preferring train or plane. Flying was a royal pain, but not quite as bad as sitting in traffic the whole way from NC to NY.  The train was nice...when I lived in Charlottesville, that was before there was a Northeast Regional train from Lynchburg to NY once a day, so the only train option was long distance trains that were typically sold out...so I'd drive to Northern Virginia (29 and I-66 not nearly as bad as I-95), park at Ballston Mall, metro to Union Station, and take the train from there.  The one time I took the train when I lived in NC, I actually drove to Richmond (2.5 hour drive on relatively uncrowded I-85, vs. a 4+ hour train ride from Durham to Richmond on the Carolinian by way of Raleigh and Selma/Smithfield), and picked up the train there to bypass congested I-95. 

But I've driven home to New York many times for Christmas.  Can't tell you how many cars I'd see with New York sports team decals and license plates from a southern state like NC or GA!  Can't scream "transplant" any louder than that!

As for VDOT's choice of which way to route the HOV lanes...its a wash either way, honestly.  Traffic will overwhelm I-95 regardless of which direction has the HOV for that short stretch, because a good deal of traffic is long-haul and will have to fit through the 6-lane portion near Fredericksburg regardless.  I suppose VDOT's idea is to help those who live in Northern Virginia (some of whom would also utilize the I-395 portion of the lanes) before helping the long haul traffic, as more people from DC leave town for the holidays and come back after.  Also, doing that saves a few flips of the lanes (they are open southbound on Wed evening as a result of the evening rush, and when they are open north on the Sunday after, they are already pointed north for Monday AM rush hour). 

[corco]

For example, I can see the mountains of West Virginia, the rust belt cities, New York/New England having a lot of people come into town.  These would be people that have ties to the area but left for better opportunities elsewhere.  Places in the South, Texas, etc. will have more people leaving, because many of the people there aren't established in the area for many years.  It seems more like "going home for the holidays" when the people who live in an area for a short time travel to visit the places they grew up.

I very much believe that. Up until my Grandfather died a few years ago, the entire extended family would meet in South Salem, Ohio (near Greenfield)- none of us still lived in that area, and most of us didn't even live in Ohio or anywhere near there- it probably would have been much more cost efficient for all of us to meet in Idaho or Massachusetts- but it was just where we went for Thanksgiving and that's always where we went so we went there.

Since his passing, the family is a bit fragmented (about half in New England and half scattered throughout the west), but the west portion always meets in the middle of Idaho, just because that's what we do. Pretty much everybody living in the west now migrated from Ohio to Idaho to their new point, so Idaho is the new home base, for whatever reason.

[myosh_tino]

The only major highway headaches in the San Jose area around Thanksgiving are southbound US 101 and eastbound CA-152 in and around Gilroy where these highways turn into parking lots after 2 PM on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving due to the large number of travelers headed to southern California.  The best alternative to avoid the congestion is to leave early Thursday morning which will put you in L.A. well before dinner time.  A local transportation columnist has also recommended leaving early Wednesday (before noon) to get a "head start".

[agentsteel53]

I'm heading out to northeast New Mexico from San Diego.  I am figuring leaving Tuesday night around 11pm, and being well into the Flagstaff area by the time daylight hits.

[SP Cook]

In West Virginia, and this is a somewhat political comment, there is a very obvious pattern.  There is no opportunity here, and many people in the prime of life (20-60, the working years) have moved away, mostly to the South, particularly to North Carolina).  On the Sunday after Thanksgiving, there are 15 mile backups on the WV Turnpike SOUTHBOUND, while the NORTHBOUND lanes are empty.

[Alps]

From what I heard today, originally the heaviest travel day was Wednesday on the NJ Turnpike (presumably the northern GS Parkway as well). Then people started to clue into that and heavy travel migrated back into Tuesday, making that the second-heaviest travel day bit by bit. In the last few years, people have just started giving up and taking the whole week off, so traffic is starting to actually improve. That said, do not head south on the Turnpike for three days before or north for three days after.

[Duke87]

Interesting that you mention lots of people going to New York... I suppose it's true if you consider long distance travel. People come to New York from far away for these holdiays. But locally, the trend is exactly the other way around... you have a lot of people who are college aged, 20-somethings, or 30-somethings, who live in the city but grew up in the suburbs. Come a major holiday, these people all leave and head back out to the suburbs to go visit their parents.

[hbelkins]

Eastern Kentucky students decades ago learned the 3 R's in school -- readin, ritin and Route 23 (or 25). because a lot of people moved north to Ohio, Michigan and to a lesser extent Indiana for job opportunities.

There is a great influx of cars from Ohio and Michigan that travel south on I-75 from Cincinnati to Lexington, then they either continue on I-75 or head east on I-64. Back when the southern split of I-75 and I-64 consisted of one-lane ramps (prior to 1980), I remember traffic jams miles long on the day before Thanksgiving.

On Sunday after Thanksgiving, you can see dozens of cars with Ohio, Michigan and Indiana plates heading west on the Mountain Parkway and I-64.

[hobsini2]

I have to do the drive this year from suburban Chicago to central Wisconsin (Princeton), like in years past.  That leg is to be done on Tue before.  What I don't know is the traffic i will encounter on Wed from Wisconsin to North Platte Nebraska, spend the night there, drive to Denver then Park City Utah on Thanksgiving, the return to Chicago from Park City on Sat and Sun.  Anyone who has info on this i will be greatly appreciated.

How is the traffic on I-80, I-76, and I-70 mainly?

Also, do the passes in the Rockies already have snow?

[corco]

How is the traffic on I-80, I-76, and I-70 mainly?

Traffic? Ha!
There's some on 76 and 70 around Denver, but that's it.  At least west of Omaha. I'm not sure if the construction through Lincoln is done yet, but you should have no trouble with traffic whatsoever once you're west of Lincoln until Denver, and then nothing bad from there.

Also, do the passes in the Rockies already have snow?

Yes, but road conditions will vary greatly from day to day- it can be whiteout one day and completely clear and dry the next

[OCGuy81]

I see an uptick in traffic around here during the holidays.  There seems to be a lot of people who come down to southern California to escape cold or rainy conditions.  This year, I'm expecting some friends from college who live in Seattle to join us on Thanksgiving.

Tourism seems to pick up too, not just people visiting friends and relatives.  Last year, I decided to take my girls to Disneyland on Christmas Day in the evening.  It was one of the busiest days I've been there, beating out the peak of summer!

[jwolfer]

From what I heard today, originally the heaviest travel day was Wednesday on the NJ Turnpike (presumably the northern GS Parkway as well). Then people started to clue into that and heavy travel migrated back into Tuesday, making that the second-heaviest travel day bit by bit. In the last few years, people have just started giving up and taking the whole week off, so traffic is starting to actually improve. That said, do not head south on the Turnpike for three days before or north for three days after.

This is when it could potentially save you hours by using 295 SB instead of the NJTP

[1995hoo]

From what I heard today, originally the heaviest travel day was Wednesday on the NJ Turnpike (presumably the northern GS Parkway as well). Then people started to clue into that and heavy travel migrated back into Tuesday, making that the second-heaviest travel day bit by bit. In the last few years, people have just started giving up and taking the whole week off, so traffic is starting to actually improve. That said, do not head south on the Turnpike for three days before or north for three days after.

This is when it could potentially save you hours by using 295 SB instead of the NJTP

Especially if you take the Commodore Barry Bridge instead of the Delaware Memorial Bridge (as its toll plaza is a chokepoint on Thanksgiving weekend due to the cash-payers).

[triplemultiplex]

In Wisconsin, the Thanksgiving holiday coincides with the 10 day gun deer season and that seems to affect travel as much if not more on some corridors.  Thousands of hunters pack the north-south corridors for their chance at a buck.  I-39 NB will be well utilized Wednesday night, that's for sure.

The Sunday after Thanksgiving, it is common to see vehicles hauling a deer and a Christmas tree back to the cities.

[mtfallsmikey]

Here's an interesting question I've always wondered about.  What types of unique travel patterns exist for the Thanksgiving holidays?

We can all agree that the American population is more spread out than ever before, as in, its far more common for families to be separated by 100's or even 1000's of miles, as it is much more culturally acceptable to move to a new place and put down roots.  Obviously, the families will still like to get together for the holidays. 

But......here are some unique patterns I've noticed:

This one is obvious....a lot more traffic leaving "college rich" areas before Thanksgiving and returning after than the other way around.  Two "college rich" areas that immediately pop into mind are Boston and the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia.  Obviously college kids are going to go home to where they grew up for the most part, as opposed to parents coming to the college town to visit, so it makes sense that you'd have a mass exodus from the college towns.  This pattern is somewhat obvious on the Mass Pike and on I-81, at least based on what I've heard. 

Washington DC....the entire city empties out over Thanksgiving.  There are many transplants to the DC area from all over the country, but many of these transplants are transient/temporary, without strong ties to the area.  So they are more likely to travel home for Thanksgiving than have family come to their temporary home.  Though one year I had parents come visit and it was really nice, the city was significantly less crowded than normal. 

New York seems to have a lot more people visiting than leaving.  The city is often jammed the whole Thanksgiving weekend.  My guess...the shopping attracts people from all over (indeed NYC has a reputation internationally for being a good shopping destination, and people come from Europe to go on shopping sprees in December). 

What other patterns are out there?  Any areas with significantly more people heading north than heading south, etc.? 

Next Monday, Tuesday will be a real treat on I-81. College students come from : JMU, U.Va., Va. Tech, Hollins (Roanoke). VMI, Radford...and drive like maniacs, mix them in w/sleepy truckers, and it's a ball. My kids come to our house thank goodness, for my world-famous fried turkey and smoked venison.

[jwolfer]

South Florida usually has an uptick in traffic between Thanksgiving and Easter/Passover (whichever one is later); obviously, the weather is nicer. And yes, it's not just the old folks who drive slow in the left lane, it's anyone who is lost or on spiked egg nog.

Driving on the Florida's Turnpike on the day before Thanksgiving and the first Sunday afterward is not recommended...the congestion is awful where it "begins" at I-75, people follow too close (four lanes aren't enough during these types of peak travel days), which leads to more accidents, and the rubberneckers exacerbate the issue. Being 20 miles from the nearest exit in any direction when you're not moving is a bitter pill.

Generally, most automobile dealerships and service departments in this area during this time also have more business, testament to the increased traffic. Some of the locals would call me asking "have the snowbirds left?" before scheduling an appointment to bring in their car, due to the wait times.

With that, I enjoy seeing people again from years gone by that I only catch during the holidays; lots of visitors come back home for the holidays, and that's something nice to break the occasional stressful moments of the holidays.

I used to go from Jacksonville to visit my Grandparents in Stuart for Thanksgiving.  Driving back from South Florida on Sunday was loaded with S Fla kids going back to UF, UCF, UNF( go Ospreys!) and FSU.  The SR 70 connection between I-95  and FL Turnpike was crazy.  There were more cars on the Turnpike since that is more direct to Gainesville and Tallahassee.  Throw on top of the college kids the families going back to NY and NJ after visiting Grandma in Boca

[Kacie Jane]

Interesting that you mention lots of people going to New York... I suppose it's true if you consider long distance travel. People come to New York from far away for these holdiays. But locally, the trend is exactly the other way around... you have a lot of people who are college aged, 20-somethings, or 30-somethings, who live in the city but grew up in the suburbs. Come a major holiday, these people all leave and head back out to the suburbs to go visit their parents.

I think you see this with a lot of metropolitan areas, where you see two separate traffic patterns.  People from far-flung areas coming back to the city to visit extended family, and the younger generation from the city proper going back to the suburbs to visit there immediate family.

On the topic of college towns, I have a wonderfully horrendous anecdote to share.  I live in Bellingham, seat of Whatcom County -- the last county on I-5 before you hit Canada -- and home of Western Washington University.  So we're surrounded by Canada on the north, the Salish Sea* on the west, and mountains on the east (the nearest mountain pass is one county south).  As a result, there's a good proportion of students who come from various in-county towns, but the majority come in and out of town on I-5.  So to answer the question, yes, you see a significant uptick in traffic on I-5 north of say Everett on any of the college travel days.

In 2006, the Sunday after Thanksgiving, I was still attending Western and was visiting family in Seattle, getting ready to head back north. Down in Seattle, the weather was gray, but not awful. My father (the driver) insisted on leaving early, either to beat the traffic or the weather, or both, so we left probably 10 or 11ish.  (Most students probably planned to arrive much later in the day.)  By the time we got to Everett, the skies opened up, although that far south it was still a slushy mix.  Of course, the further north we got, the more the precipitation tended more solidly toward snow.  When we got to the Chuckanut "Mountains" (foothills that I-5 crosses between MP 240-246, about halfway between Burlington and Bellingham), snow was accumulating on the freeway and it was maybe 20 mph the rest of the way.  By the time, we got to the college, conveniently located on the top of the hill, there were six inches of snow on the ground, and I had to help push my dad's car back out of the parking lot to get him started on his way home.

Believe it or not, that's not the horrendous part.  The snow just got worse from there, and when traffic was at its peak later in the evening, it took my friends literally (and overusing that word is one of my pet peeves, so you know I mean it) four hours to go the four miles from Exit 242 to Exit 246.  The Amtrak train up from Seattle was about 2-3 hours late despite leaving Seattle on time, and knowing their audience, they announced over the loudspeaker on the train that classes at the university were cancelled on Monday.

We ended up with a foot and a half of snow, and classes ended up being cancelled for 2 1/2 days, so everyone who sat in traffic for 4+ hours completely wasted their time.

[small]*Salish Sea is a term gaining in popularity, and includes the Puget Sound, Strait of Juan de Fuca, Strait of Georgia, and the various other bodies of water between the mainland and the Olympic Peninsula and Vancouver Island.[/small]

[froggie]

MnDOT has several Automated Traffic Recorders (which continuously count traffic volumes) scattered across the state.  Over years of reading the ATR reports, I've found there's always a few stations that have their highest hourly volumes for the year on Thanksgiving Day.  For 2010, those would be a few of the stations along I-35, US 52, and US 169 south of the Twin Cities.

[sandiaman]

 We  have  a "traditional"    Thanksgiving trip  between Albuquerque  and Boise, and find is  alot  easier  to   make   long  drive.  The traffic  is  light  compared to  either  of the coasts.  One exception  is  the  metro Salt Lake  Valley, which is a  long  suburban  strip     that stretches  for a  good  75  miles  .  Ususally I hit it  about  rush  hour, so  we  literally crawl  for an hour and a half.  Other than that,  it is a beautiful road trip,  gorgeous scenery and you  never  know what kind of weather  conditions  to  encounter.

[Alps]

Next Monday, Tuesday will be a real treat on I-81. College students come from : JMU, U.Va., Va. Tech, Hollins (Roanoke). VMI, Radford...and drive like maniacs, mix them in w/sleepy truckers, and it's a ball. My kids come to our house thank goodness, for my world-famous fried turkey and smoked venison.

See you Thursday!

[J N Winkler]

We don't usually travel on Thanksgiving, but this year we are going to find out how bad I-35 gets between Wichita and Kansas City on Thanksgiving Day.  I did travel between Manhattan ("Little Apple") and Wichita via US 77 and US 50 when I was doing my undergraduate degrees at KSU, and I don't remember traffic being particularly bad on either side of the Thanksgiving holiday.

I would certainly expect traffic to be far worse on the coasts over the holidays (not just Thanksgiving), given that 50% of the US population lives within 50 miles of the coast.  For long-distance holiday travel, the relevant variable becomes lane count on high-capacity long-distance routes per 1 million combined population in a city pair.  Wichita and Kansas City have 4 lanes for a total of 2 million people, or 2 lanes per million.  In contradistinction, Washington and New York have about 20 million people total and 12 lanes--or 0.6 lane per million.

This kind of back-of-the-envelope calculation of course does not take into account factors like differing propensities for holiday travel in the two city pairs, but it does give a rough guide to the kind of congestion that can be expected.  Years ago I travelled between DC and New York (as part of a longer trip between DC and Spencer, Mass. to visit old family friends) on a Fourth of July holiday weekend and I found it convenient to leave DC around 4 AM to avoid the worst of the traffic.

[2Co5_14]

Except for last year (and the one coming up), I've spent Thanksgiving locally (Massachusetts and more recently Georgia) and since I moved away from my family in California. What I run into sometimes is that early afternoon traffic on Thanksgiving day where all the locals are driving to wherever their meal is. I haven't noticed one direction more extreme than the other - both are congested.

The other type of traffic that has sprouted up in recent years is for the Black Friday sales at midnight.  I remember one year my wife and her friends tried to go to the Wrentham Premium Outlet Mall southwest of Boston.  The traffic on I-495 was completely gridlocked for a few exits before - she sat in the line of cars barely moving for over an hour before she gave up and turned around.  It turns out the parking lot was completely filled, so people could only enter as other cars left.  It wasn't a total waste - she went to the Walmart instead and was one of the first people to get in there at 4 am!