2012 Hurricane Season

[realjd]

This is a general 2012 Hurricane Season thread.

We had a feeling it was going to be a busy year since the forecasts called for it to be quiet. Whenever they call for a busy year, it's quiet and whenever they call for a quiet year, it's busy.

Here in Brevard, we had a few rain bands from Baryl last month. Not much to write home about. For Debby, it's been a nonstop progression of outer rain bands since yesterday. We had a few tornado warnings last night, but thankfully none touched down here. We've had rain but nothing like they've had northwest of here.

I know we have a few posters from the panhandle. How are y'all doing up there? It looks pretty wet.

[formulanone]

Wife and kids are in Orlando/Disney during Debby. Seems to have kicked off a little early this year...(please, not another 2005).

[allniter89]

Pretty quite in Okaloosa County, breezy to 40mph the last few days, 9' surf and rip currents but no rain to speak of, less than a quarter of an inch.

[elsmere241]

My brother is in Gainesville.  He says the water was starting to come up out of the floor tiles.

[jwolfer]

Here in Jacksonville/Middleburg lots of rain.  Flooded roads.  I -10 is closed this mronign in Baker and Columbia Counties from US 90 at Sanderson to I-75

[hm insulators]

Man, Debby just dumped the rain all over the Florida Panhandle! They've been having a major drought there so they need the rain.

Just not all at once...

[Brandon]

Wife and kids are in Orlando/Disney during Debby. Seems to have kicked off a little early this year...(please, not another 2005).

One thing I have noticed over the years, is that whenever it is dry in the Midwest during the spring and early summer, the Gulf is hotter and seems to invite more hurricanes.  2012 is shaping up that way.

[realjd]

Wife and kids are in Orlando/Disney during Debby. Seems to have kicked off a little early this year...(please, not another 2005).

One thing I have noticed over the years, is that whenever it is dry in the Midwest during the spring and early summer, the Gulf is hotter and seems to invite more hurricanes.  2012 is shaping up that way.

I hadn't heard that. Interesting.

At least here in Brevard, I don't ever recall being so close to the path of the eye/COC of a TS with so few weather effects. It's been breezy and we've had a few small rain bands the past few days, but we've otherwise felt no effects since last Saturday.

[Road Hog]

I wish a tropical storm or a minimal hurricane would hit a sparsely-populated part of the Gulf coast, bend around and park over my house for about a week. Summers in Texas typically suck.

[Alex]

I wish a tropical storm or a minimal hurricane would hit a sparsely-populated part of the Gulf coast, bend around and park over my house for about a week. Summers in Texas typically suck.

The early indicators were for a "moist" pattern over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, at least until El Nino returns. With Alberto, Beryl and Debby thus far, southeast GA, north FL and coastal SC have vastly moved out of drought conditions probably thanks in part to this pattern: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ We'll have to see how the next two months play out with any system that moves into or develops in the GOM.

[realjd]

Looks like we're in for a wet Monday next week... assuming the forecast doesn't change like it usually does.

[Alex]

Looks like we're in for a wet Monday next week... assuming the forecast doesn't change like it usually does.

They have propagated westward today after going eastward yesterday. A year ago at this time models had the Florida peninsula in the cross hairs. We know what ended up eventually happening with that...

Best for those in the southeast and all along the east coast to keep track of Isaac and see what happens. Today the storm has struggled to get more organized, which might allow for more westward motion before finding the weakness to the northwest.

[Scott5114]

Here's hoping for more westward movement... Oklahoma could use a lot of rain.

[realjd]

The 11AM forecast from the NHC seems to be west of most of the model tracks.

Of course it's usually the people outside of the Cone of Doom that should be paying the most attention because it's probably headed toward them!

[allniter89]

Looks like we're in for a wet Monday next week... assuming the forecast doesn't change like it usually does.

They have propagated westward today after going eastward yesterday. A year ago at this time models had the Florida peninsula in the cross hairs. We know what ended up eventually happening with that...

Best for those in the southeast and all along the east coast to keep track of Isaac and see what happens. Today the storm has struggled to get more organized, which might allow for more westward motion before finding the weakness to the northwest.

Wow, four models bring it pretty close to home, but its early yet.

[Alex]

Wow, four models bring it pretty close to home, but its early yet.

Yup I went for a bike ride at 1 and they were still clumped along the west coast of Florida. Come back and look at 4 and they shifted westward.

I regularly follow Hardcoreweather and Levi Cowan at Tropical Tidbits. Levi is still thinking a run east of the state of Florida. My friend at HCW is also still thinking an easterly course. Time will tell...

Must restore that hurricane message icon at some point...

[realjd]

Wow, four models bring it pretty close to home, but its early yet.

Yup I went for a bike ride at 1 and they were still clumped along the west coast of Florida. Come back and look at 4 and they shifted westward.

I regularly follow Hardcoreweather and Levi Cowan at Tropical Tidbits. Levi is still thinking a run east of the state of Florida. My friend at HCW is also still thinking an easterly course. Time will tell...

Must restore that hurricane message icon at some point...

Well they shifter back east/north for us on the peninsula. The TS watch ends at Sebastian Inlet, right by me, but I expect that to shift north at the 2AM update. The local mets are forecasting TS level winds for Brevard starting around 8PM Sunday. We had 60-70 mph winds come through a few days ago with one of our normal afternoon tstorms, so TS level winds aren't really concerning anyone at this point.

We're just seeing the first effects of the storm here. It's not raining yet in Palm Bay, but there has been one hell of a light show parked just off shore for the past hour.

I've seen a few of Levi's posts on the comments to Jeff Masters's blog on Weather Underground. The comments board there is obnoxious, immature, and catty, but the is some good info buried in there at times.

Another one I like is the blog of former weather underground poster StormW at stormW.com

[Alex]

Just read on Hardcoreweather that some preliminiary steps are being taken in the New Orleans area for contraflow setup, now that SELA is the focus of the latest computer models.

Metro New Orleans contraflow and evacuation plans, and other helpful links

They have a pretty cool graphic showing the contraflow configuration for the SELA Interstate system:

[triplemultiplex]

It's interesting to re-read upthread because the images linked to were not static and have been updated with the latest information.  So the comments by Floridians make it sound like they live around NOLA.   

Looks like Isaac will take it easy on Louisiana compared to some recent visitors from the Gulf. Still, it doesn't take much mess it stuff up down there.

[Brandon]

Given what I've seen, the hoopla over Issac is much ado about nothing.  Yes, it may be a Cat1 , but the biggest effects should be wind and rain from what I've seen.  If I was in NOLA, I would not evacuate for this one.

[realjd]

Given what I've seen, the hoopla over Issac is much ado about nothing.  Yes, it may be a Cat1 , but the biggest effects should be wind and rain from what I've seen.  If I was in NOLA, I would not evacuate for this one.

In NOLA proper? Get out. Remember that most of the city is below sea level. Even a minor storm surge can be catestrophic. In a suburb? Check your storm surge zone and decide based on that. Remember that we are decent at forecasting storm tracks but completely incapable of accurately predicting intensity, so you always plan based on a storm one level higher than is forecast.

I live only a few miles inland but am about 35 feet above sea level. Much of the swampy gulf coast doesn't have the same luxury of elevation during a storm like this.

[Sanctimoniously]

Another thing to realize is that some of the worst storms in recent memory were only Category 2 or 3 storms, but since they were so massive, they had damage similar to substantially more powerful storms in the past.

EDIT: Although all those storms had once been Category 4+ storms at one point or another before their landfalls.

[Revive 755]

They have a pretty cool graphic showing the contraflow configuration for the SELA Interstate system:

Is there a reason they don't contraflow I-55 from I-10 to I-12 and I-10 from I-55 to somewhere closer to Baton Rouge?

[realjd]

They have a pretty cool graphic showing the contraflow configuration for the SELA Interstate system:

Is there a reason they don't contraflow I-55 from I-10 to I-12 and I-10 from I-55 to somewhere closer to Baton Rouge?

For I55, I assume its because the contraflow between I10 to I12 would then have to merge in with another contraflow route causing increased congestion. Look at them as discrete routes out of town. I don't know about LA's implementation specifically, but usually exits and entrances along the contraflow route are closed, and you're forced to follow the colored route at freeway junctions.

[Brandon]

Given what I've seen, the hoopla over Issac is much ado about nothing.  Yes, it may be a Cat1 , but the biggest effects should be wind and rain from what I've seen.  If I was in NOLA, I would not evacuate for this one.

In NOLA proper? Get out. Remember that most of the city is below sea level. Even a minor storm surge can be catestrophic. In a suburb? Check your storm surge zone and decide based on that. Remember that we are decent at forecasting storm tracks but completely incapable of accurately predicting intensity, so you always plan based on a storm one level higher than is forecast.

I live only a few miles inland but am about 35 feet above sea level. Much of the swampy gulf coast doesn't have the same luxury of elevation during a storm like this.

In NOLA proper, I'd stay.  In Katrina, the failures were completely human error due to lack of levee maintenance.  Had the levees been maintained as they were supposed to, NO would never have flooded.  Remember, there was a distinct contrast between the Jefferson parish side and the NO side of the canal.  One side was dry due to proper maintenance, one side was not due to lack of maintenance.  The storm had far less to do with it than people not properly maintaining the levees.