Snowy Weather/Human driving capacity

[Tonytone]

Today, The Northeast had its first Nor'easter which they undersized & caused many issues. The area we are talking about is Delaware/Pa. i guess the Dots assumed the "predicted rain"  that was supposed to start @3, Did not start till 6 (In DE at least, PA kept getting hit with snow/Ice). They did not ice or brime anything. Is this the usual procedure with first snow? Or did they expect the rain to wash it away. I didn't see how much snow we got, But I assume it was 5 inches or more. Which shut mostly everything down, if it wasn't moving slowly. This shows that even with all the extra road preparations, and safety features you will still almost crash unless you have $400 snow tires or tire chains. I got stuck in my 2015 Nissan Altima only twice, (I will now buy tire chains to prepare for future storms). Delaware did ok on the roads, but Pa? Woah I didnt see one until I was on Darby creek road. Which He did not have a plow only salter. & Pa's hilly roads cause so much issue, they should really close some of them to thru traffic when it snows. But in all My girl & I were safe & our trip from New Castle, De to Brwn Mayr, Pa. Which usually is 45 mins turned into a 5 hour round trip. Only issue we had was hitting a curb & bending my rim. Which now causes the wheel to shake (yes I know I have to replace it).


But my main theme of this whole Thread & Story is how unprepared we are for mother nature's fury & people cannot drive at all in winter weather. We should have laws enforcing more Tire chains or Snow tires in areas that we have bad snow or cars can slide backwards down a hill causing more issues. Or crash into curbs . Or simply more plow trucks, cause where are they all when you need em.


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[jemacedo9]

This was a hot mess today...or a cold mess.  Yes, the storm was underpredicted.  I thought there was some brine treatment, but as you mention...when people realized the changeover to rain wasn't happening, they all hit the roads at once (workers, school buses, trucks) and before the plows...so yes...4-6 hour commutes were the norm.  There was a school district in Lancaster County PA that brought the kids back to school instead of being stuck on the road to shelter in place.  I have 6 inches of snow in Chester County...after a prediction of 1.

This was one of the worst snow gridlocks of my time...as bad as the infamous John Bolaris screw up that got him fired ~ 20 years ago.

[jeffandnicole]

Your first sentence was key: The weather forecasters didn't predict the storm that we had. The various transportation departments don't have secret forecasts that know what's truly going to happen, so they're only going based on what everyone else sees as well. Thr weather people we're a bit slow in even forecasting anything, which didn't help with preparation.

NJDOT at least brined their roads yesterday, and it helped a little.

Chains are really only good on snowpacked roads; you wouldn't be able to drive highways or other, better treated roadways.

The fault here lies with the weather forecasting. We're being told constantly that they had better and better equipment to forecast storms, and they completely whiffed on the first storm of the season. Until the General Public makes the meteorologists responsible for their inadequate forecasts, the meteorologists will continue to Ho Hum everything and not really care. After all, they have enough fans that will forgive them and apologize for their actions. If this was nearly any other organization the same people would be calling for them to be fired!

[Tonytone]

This was a hot mess today...or a cold mess.  Yes, the storm was underpredicted.  I thought there was some brine treatment, but as you mention...when people realized the changeover to rain wasn't happening, they all hit the roads at once (workers, school buses, trucks) and before the plows...so yes...4-6 hour commutes were the norm.  There was a school district in Lancaster County PA that brought the kids back to school instead of being stuck on the road to shelter in place.  I have 6 inches of snow in Chester County...after a prediction of 1.

This was one of the worst snow gridlocks of my time...as bad as the infamous John Bolaris screw up that got him fired ~ 20 years ago.

Wow, so it wasn't, just me who thought it was worse then usual. Smh, they always under predict the small storms & over predict the big ones. This caused many preventable problems. & wow I wonder who will take the heat for the uptick in accidents & emergency personal.


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[jeffandnicole]

I was listening to KYW 1060 on the way home, and they mention how people were unprepared for the storm. I'm thinking, well wait you guys are the ones that told us that it wasn't going to be a storm. So are they underhandedly admitting that they're at fault? No they're still blaming us for not preparing for something that they didn't call for!

[froggie]

when people realized the changeover to rain wasn't happening, they all hit the roads at once (workers, school buses, trucks) and before the plows

Blame the meteorologists all you want, but this here is key...doesn't matter WHAT (if anything) is falling out of the sky when this happens.

[Tonytone]

Your first sentence was key: The weather forecasters didn't predict the storm that we had. The various transportation departments don't have secret forecasts that know what's truly going to happen, so they're only going based on what everyone else sees as well. The weather people we're a bit slow in even forecasting anything, which didn't help with preparation.

NJDOT at least brined their roads yesterday, and it helped a little.

Chains are really only good on snowpacked roads; you wouldn't be able to drive highways or other, better treated roadways.

The fault here lies with the weather forecasting. We're being told constantly that they had better and better equipment to forecast storms, and they completely whiffed on the first storm of the season. Until the General Public makes the meteorologists responsible for their inadequate forecasts, the meteorologists will continue to Ho Hum everything and not really care. After all, they have enough fans that will forgive them and apologize for their actions. If this was nearly any other organization the same people would be calling for them to be fired!

Im shocked that DE, didnt brime be roads like they usually do the day before. I guess we all thought the snow was gonna be light. The Dots always act like they have better information or they get it from somewhere else; aka National weather center. (Or whatever its called) & I think the Meteorologists & state officials will take heat for this one. The amount of cars/trucks that were in ditches & had crashed major or minor (including my self). That I seen, this is cause for better forecasting. I rather prepare for everything & be safe then to almost lose my life on a local road!!! I could have taken 476 & been safer! & lastly Tire chains cannot be driven on highways & other roads, because it will damage them? Or you will not have traction still? 


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[oscar]

Tire chains cannot be driven on highways & other roads, because it will damage them? Or you will not have traction still?

Might damage the roads, or more likely ruin the chains, which aren't designed for sustained driving on pavement rather than snowpack.

Studs on winter tires might work better for the driver, but not so much for pavement. Some states, even really snowy ones like Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, don't allow them at all.

[ErmineNotyours]

We should have laws enforcing more Tire chains or Snow tires in areas that we have bad snow or cars can slide backwards down a hill causing more issues. Or crash into curbs .

One time I was driving easily on snow on all-weather tires, until I got to an intersection where the snow was packed in to ice, and there were cars waiting at the intersection.  Shitshitshitshitshitshitshit!!  Thinking quick, I deliberately skidded into the right curb to stop myself.  It worked, but I knocked the steering out of alignment for several years until I got it fixed.

[Tonytone]

We should have laws enforcing more Tire chains or Snow tires in areas that we have bad snow or cars can slide backwards down a hill causing more issues. Or crash into curbs .

One time I was driving easily on snow on all-weather tires, until I got to an intersection where the snow was packed in to ice, and there were cars waiting at the intersection.  Shitshitshitshitshitshitshit!!  Thinking quick, I deliberately skidded into the right curb to stop myself.  It worked, but I knocked the steering out of alignment for several years until I got it fixed.

That plan works better then crashing & you're insurance going up to numbers that make you're head hurt. But they should really work on ways of heating intersections up via ground wires or something. Because the slowdown really causes people to pack that icedown & make it hard to move. I wish the same would have happened for me. Now I have a bent rim & probably some arm control issues. That will take me some time to fix.


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[jakeroot]

I don't know if its fair to blame drivers 100%. Some fault lies in poor forecasting, some in lax governmental snow regulations, some in schools and businesses staying open when they shouldn't be...etc. This is besides the fact that some areas of the country don't get enough practice with snow to know how to drive in it. When schools or businesses require you to come in, you really have no choice but to venture out or call in sick (the latter not always being an option). Here in the PNW, we get snow maybe two or three days a year; barely enough for me to learn how to drive in it, as much as I would like to learn.

I think other provinces have similar laws, but British Columbia requires M+S tires on most roads outside the Lower Mainland and areas of Vancouver Island between 01 Oct and 31 March.

[jeffandnicole]

And even in areas where people are used to snowy conditions, people are more mobile than ever.  You can have 100,000 people from Minnesota driving in snowy conditions just find, but that one guy from Alabama who moved there last year and has never driven in it can skid into a truck closing the entire roadway.  Or even a guy driving thru from Alabama can cause the same havoc.

That plan works better then crashing & you’re insurance going up to numbers that make you’re head hurt. But they should really work on ways of heating intersections up via ground wires or something. Because the slowdown really causes people to pack that icedown & make it hard to move. I wish the same would have happened for me. Now I have a bent rim & probably some arm control issues. That will take me some time to fix.

While it would be nice, it'll never really happen.  People with heated floors in their house run numerous lines immediately below the tile or floor planks; a fraction of an inch from the surface.  There's absolutely no way to do the same with asphalt and concrete on roadways.  There's been a few areas that have tried and tested deicing-type stuff on bridges.  These things cost millions for very short stretches of roadway, and it's nearly unheard of for the system to keep working after a year or two.

[jemacedo9]

I was listening to KYW 1060 on the way home, and they mention how people were unprepared for the storm. I'm thinking, well wait you guys are the ones that told us that it wasn't going to be a storm. So are they underhandedly admitting that they're at fault? No they're still blaming us for not preparing for something that they didn't call for!

The TV stations were saying the same thing...which pissed me off. I literally heard a "we have been on top of this all along." The NWS screwed this up as well...they changed the Winter Weather Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning in the early afternoon...after we already reached the 3 inch mark N&W of the city.

when people realized the changeover to rain wasn't happening, they all hit the roads at once (workers, school buses, trucks) and before the plows

Blame the meteorologists all you want, but this here is key...doesn't matter WHAT (if anything) is falling out of the sky when this happens.

The problem is...the forecast led to DOTs keeping their plows in. One inch with temps above 32 and a change to rain = plows in.  What happened by 11AM was...two inches and snowing hard and temps dropped to 28. The forecasters didn't predict a drop in temps...which, whenever it snows here, the temps always seem to drop a few degrees at the beginning. 33 vs 28 is a huge difference.

I could have taken 476 & been safer!
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I'm not so sure about that yesterday. Just a tiny bit further north, I-76, US 202, and US 422 were all literal parking lots yesterday afternoon because of stuck cars and trucks.

[1995hoo]

People on the road this morning apparently didn't take the part about "bridges freeze before road surface"  seriously. Speed limit on this road is 50 mph. I usually do 55 and I'm one of the slower people on the road there (I'm aware of recent speed enforcement efforts). Today I crawled past this scene at about 2 mph. There's an overpass just behind my vantage point that crosses three railroad tracks and the Metrorail tracks and I guess people didn't slow down, hit an icy surface, and spun out.

[US 89]

People on the road this morning apparently didn't take the part about "bridges freeze before road surface"  seriously.

I'd argue this kind of thing happens because some states post the "bridge ices before road" sign before almost every single bridge on a freeway. When people see that sign so often, especially during most of the year when it's not snowing, they tune it out.

But that's a piece of knowledge that's especially important to driving in cold, snowy/icy conditions. Everyone should know that black ice forms on top of overpasses, as well as underneath them. I once nearly lost control on black ice on I-80 in Salt Lake, going under this overpass. I don't think I'll ever forget it.

Also, to everyone in here who is armchair-quarterbacking the forecast: those forecasters go through a lot of training to do the job they do. IMO, suggesting that they "don't care" or purposely mislead the general public is a little bit offensive.

[1995hoo]

I think a lot of people don't understand why overpasses and bridges freeze first, regardless of the signs. (Virginia doesn't post that sign at every one of them, but then I don't think it would have mattered today.)

[Tonytone]

Are you telling me people don't understand that, Cold air under the bridge causes Ice to form? We might as well not even have iPhones , if a person can't figure that out. I bet you after this, The Dots & Weather channels will be more inclined to "safety first"  "Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, etc"


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[1995hoo]

I am positive a lot of people don't know that and I suspect they've never thought about it. That is, if you told them why it happens I'm sure it would make sense to them, but I doubt most people have ever considered it at all.

[jemacedo9]

Also, to everyone in here who is armchair-quarterbacking the forecast: those forecasters go through a lot of training to do the job they do. IMO, suggesting that they "don't care" or purposely mislead the general public is a little bit offensive.

It's not a question of "don't care" or "purposely mislead"...but when you're wrong (especially because Mother Nature can throw curves at any time), just say so.  Say something like "the storm developed in a way we couldn't predict" or "the temps didn't act they way we and our models thought it would." I understand that sh*t happens; just say so.  Be honest.

But to imply that you were right, when you weren't - which happened on at least two Phila stations yesterday - is disingenuous at a minimum.

In this specific case...when, at 6AM, you say "one inch of snow at 32 with rising temps" and at 12N, you already have three inches of snow at 28 with falling temps, you (or the models) weren't right.  And if you change your forecast at 12N, you can't say at 6PM you were on top of it. And that's the reason why plows weren't out. And bedlam.

And I'll say...I think weather forecasters get a little bit of a shaft because news stations use weather in their ratings competition...so I'm sure there's pressure they have to deal with.

[PHLBOS]

Mass transit wasn't immune from yesterday's lingering storm either.  Busses were sliding along streets & downed catenary wires, due to wind/ice build-up on nearby tree branches falling on them, caused the closure of at least two SEPTA Regional Rail lines (the one I use, Media/Elwyn, being one of them) as well as Amtrak.

As of earlier this morning, SEPTA's Paoli/Thorndale & Amtrak's Keystone lines (between Philly & Harrisburg) were still shut down.

This was one of the worst snow gridlocks of my time...as bad as the infamous John Bolaris screw up that got him fired ~ 20 years ago.

I remember that fiasco very well; however, there are two differences vs. yesterday's storm.

1.  Bolaris overpredicted/overeacted to the then-upcoming storm (it was much less severe).  The opposite of what happened yesterday.

2.  Bolaris'/NBC-10's forecast back then was the only one that went that extreme; the other stations, thankfully, did not.  In contrast, all of the stations (and not just in the Philadelphia area) grossly underpredicted yesterday's storm.

[jemacedo9]

Mass transit wasn't immune from yesterday's lingering storm either.  Busses were sliding along streets & downed catenary wires, due to wind/ice build-up on nearby tree branches falling on them, caused the closure of at least two SEPTA Regional Rail lines (the one I use, Media/Elwyn, being one of them) as well as Amtrak.

As of earlier this morning, SEPTA's Paoli/Thorndale & Amtrak's Keystone lines (between Philly & Harrisburg) were still shut down.

This was one of the worst snow gridlocks of my time...as bad as the infamous John Bolaris screw up that got him fired ~ 20 years ago.

I remember that fiasco very well; however, there are two differences vs. yesterday's storm.

1.  Bolaris overpredicted/overeacted to the then-upcoming storm (it was much less severe).  The opposite of what happened yesterday.

2.  Bolaris'/NBC-10's forecast back then was the only one that went that extreme; the other stations, thankfully, did not.  In contrast, all of the stations (and not just in the Philadelphia area) grossly underpredicted yesterday's storm.

There were two with Bolaris...about a few weeks before that massive overprediction, he (and other stations) had a massive underprediction that was very similar to yesterday. That day, I left for work late (when it was supposed to be raining) and it was snowing, and I turned around and avoided the eventual massive commutes.  The overprediction is the one that got him fired in the end...

[froggie]

when people realized the changeover to rain wasn't happening, they all hit the roads at once (workers, school buses, trucks) and before the plows

Blame the meteorologists all you want, but this here is key...doesn't matter WHAT (if anything) is falling out of the sky when this happens.

The problem is...the forecast led to DOTs keeping their plows in. One inch with temps above 32 and a change to rain = plows in.  What happened by 11AM was...two inches and snowing hard and temps dropped to 28. The forecasters didn't predict a drop in temps...which, whenever it snows here, the temps always seem to drop a few degrees at the beginning. 33 vs 28 is a huge difference.

I haven't looked at the specific situation down that way (which given the timing you mentioned I'm guessing is Philly-area), but speaking from long personal experience, all it takes is a temperature difference of 1F at the right altitude to make the difference between snow, sleet, rain, or some combination thereof.  When your temperatures at the surface and the bottom few thousand feet of atmosphere are hovering near freezing to begin with, this becomes a very tricky and low-confidence forecast, because it doesn't take much of a temperature change to completely flip that precip type.  Mesoscale models are good but not THAT good.  Meteorologists should have communicated the uncertainty, and road managers should have taken that uncertainty and been prepared to deploy on short notice.

[jemacedo9]

when people realized the changeover to rain wasn't happening, they all hit the roads at once (workers, school buses, trucks) and before the plows

Blame the meteorologists all you want, but this here is key...doesn't matter WHAT (if anything) is falling out of the sky when this happens.

The problem is...the forecast led to DOTs keeping their plows in. One inch with temps above 32 and a change to rain = plows in.  What happened by 11AM was...two inches and snowing hard and temps dropped to 28. The forecasters didn't predict a drop in temps...which, whenever it snows here, the temps always seem to drop a few degrees at the beginning. 33 vs 28 is a huge difference.

I haven't looked at the specific situation down that way (which given the timing you mentioned I'm guessing is Philly-area), but speaking from long personal experience, all it takes is a temperature difference of 1F at the right altitude to make the difference between snow, sleet, rain, or some combination thereof.  When your temperatures at the surface and the bottom few thousand feet of atmosphere are hovering near freezing to begin with, this becomes a very tricky and low-confidence forecast, because it doesn't take much of a temperature change to completely flip that precip type.  Mesoscale models are good but not THAT good.  Meteorologists should have communicated the uncertainty, and road managers should have taken that uncertainty and been prepared to deploy on short notice.

Agreed with all points (and yes, Philly area).  Many times TV meterologists don't communicate the uncertainty (in their race to be claimed "most accurate", and road managers definitely fell way short. I had a outpatient medical procedure scheduled for yesterday that, in looking at the forecast on Tues morning, knew the temp ranges and precip were too close, and was able to reschedule...so I avoided the mess yesterday. 
 

[jeffandnicole]

when people realized the changeover to rain wasn't happening, they all hit the roads at once (workers, school buses, trucks) and before the plows

Blame the meteorologists all you want, but this here is key...doesn't matter WHAT (if anything) is falling out of the sky when this happens.

The problem is...the forecast led to DOTs keeping their plows in. One inch with temps above 32 and a change to rain = plows in.  What happened by 11AM was...two inches and snowing hard and temps dropped to 28. The forecasters didn't predict a drop in temps...which, whenever it snows here, the temps always seem to drop a few degrees at the beginning. 33 vs 28 is a huge difference.

I haven't looked at the specific situation down that way (which given the timing you mentioned I'm guessing is Philly-area), but speaking from long personal experience, all it takes is a temperature difference of 1F at the right altitude to make the difference between snow, sleet, rain, or some combination thereof.  When your temperatures at the surface and the bottom few thousand feet of atmosphere are hovering near freezing to begin with, this becomes a very tricky and low-confidence forecast, because it doesn't take much of a temperature change to completely flip that precip type.  Mesoscale models are good but not THAT good.  Meteorologists should have communicated the uncertainty, and road managers should have taken that uncertainty and been prepared to deploy on short notice.

Agreed with all points (and yes, Philly area).  Many times TV meterologists don't communicate the uncertainty (in their race to be claimed "most accurate", and road managers definitely fell way short. I had a outpatient medical procedure scheduled for yesterday that, in looking at the forecast on Tues morning, knew the temp ranges and precip were too close, and was able to reschedule...so I avoided the mess yesterday. 

At least in NJ, the trucks had salt and plows were on the trucks all day. 

However, there were two issues here: This was a midday storm, so traffic in the morning was normal: Kids went to school; Adults went to work.  Midday storms are always the worst because everyone's already out.  Compounding this was that most forecasts called for the snow to quickly turn over to rain, and by midday the changeover would occur.  When it became obvious that changeover wasn't occurring, schools started letting out, people started leaving their offices on their own, and offices eventually closed.  Roads started becoming jammed with an unusual amount of traffic.

Now, the next question is: Where are the plows and salt trucks?  They don't have the magical ability to plow roads filled with traffic.  If they were on the road, they would be inching along with everyone else.  So by putting them on a jammed highway, they're nearly in a useless situation.

It's tough.  Unless everyone stays home in the morning, this will always happen.  And if everyone stays home and this didn't happen, there'd be a lot of heat on people for making them stay home for no reason.

And the people that cause this mess - the Meteorologists - escape unharmed.

[Tonytone]

But the Dots usually do a good job of making their own weather prediction's & go off of that. Why they misjudged yesterday, was confusing. If something major would have happened then who would have taken that "Fall" ?


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