Snowy Weather/Human driving capacity

[jeffandnicole]

But the Dots usually do a good job of making their own weather prediction’s & go off of that. Why they misjudged yesterday, was confusing. If something major would have happened then who would have taken that “Fall”?


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Actually, they don't.  They use the same forecasts we use.  They may get it from a different source, but ultimately, all weather forecasting has a base of the National Weather Service or Accu-Weather. 

There's been plenty of times where they've had too much equipment available for a storm that never materialized. Again, that's based off of publicly available weather forecasts.  That becomes money wasted...money that could've been spent repaving and widening roads.

[US 89]

But the Dots usually do a good job of making their own weather prediction’s & go off of that. Why they misjudged yesterday, was confusing. If something major would have happened then who would have taken that “Fall”?

Actually, they don't.  They use the same forecasts we use.  They may get it from a different source, but ultimately, all weather forecasting has a base of the National Weather Service or Accu-Weather. 

There's been plenty of times where they've had too much equipment available for a storm that never materialized. Again, that's based off of publicly available weather forecasts.  That becomes money wasted...money that could've been spent repaving and widening roads.

If you're using AccuWeather, the Weather Channel, or another similar source, you should not be making official plans. The primary goal of news outlets like that is not to provide accurate forecasts, it's to make money.

DOTs do hire their own meteorologists on occasion, and often times the NWS will coordinate with a DOT regarding the forecast. At least that's what UDOT and the NWS SLC office do.

[Tonytone]

But the Dots usually do a good job of making their own weather prediction’s & go off of that. Why they misjudged yesterday, was confusing. If something major would have happened then who would have taken that “Fall”?


iPhone

Actually, they don't.  They use the same forecasts we use.  They may get it from a different source, but ultimately, all weather forecasting has a base of the National Weather Service or Accu-Weather. 

There's been plenty of times where they've had too much equipment available for a storm that never materialized. Again, that's based off of publicly available weather forecasts.  That becomes money wasted...money that could've been spent repaving and widening roads.

Wow, that's actually shocking. Reminds me of the time a couple years back around 2010-11 snow season. I first moved up here to Delaware & mind you, I had only seen snow a couple times. But this snow season, was the last time I've seen snow that high. About the size of cars. At the end of that winter season, they said we got 75 inches of snow! Holy shit. I don't think we will see it like that again. But IIRC, Deldot had done pretty well on snow removal. Even though, the snow didn't melt till the summer. They handled those high 1 foot + snow amounts well. Was it because of state of emergencies that were called & the fact that cars were not allowed on roads?


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[vdeane]

Wow, it was the opposite of that up here in the Albany area... snow was forecast 8-12 inches at one point (we got no rain at all), and it feels like we got significantly less.

Incidentally, even the amount of snow that happened still feels like too little for schools to let out early... the only time I remember getting out of school early for snow was one storm where there was already 2' on the ground and it was continuing to snow hard!  If it's going to be snowing when you leave no matter when you leave, no point in leaving early unless the roads will become impassible.  Seems to me like the roads would have been a lot better if schools and offices had remained open, allowing the plows a chance to get the situation under control prior to the afternoon rush.

Around here, it was Tuesday when everyone was caught off guard, as a snow squall that wasn't forecast moved through during the night and had everything iced over the next morning.  The morning rush was carmageddon for anyone who didn't live in Albany or immediate suburbs on the same side of the rivers, with many people taking hours just to go a couple miles (my boss left for work around 6:30, normally gets here around 7, but wasn't in until 9:30 or 10).  There was even a period where it was literally impossible to drive from the east side of the Hudson to the west using anything other than the Thruway.

But the Dots usually do a good job of making their own weather prediction's & go off of that. Why they misjudged yesterday, was confusing. If something major would have happened then who would have taken that "Fall" ?

Actually, they don't.  They use the same forecasts we use.  They may get it from a different source, but ultimately, all weather forecasting has a base of the National Weather Service or Accu-Weather. 

There's been plenty of times where they've had too much equipment available for a storm that never materialized. Again, that's based off of publicly available weather forecasts.  That becomes money wasted...money that could've been spent repaving and widening roads.

If you're using AccuWeather, the Weather Channel, or another similar source, you should not be making official plans. The primary goal of news outlets like that is not to provide accurate forecasts, it's to make money.

DOTs do hire their own meteorologists on occasion, and often times the NWS will coordinate with a DOT regarding the forecast. At least that's what UDOT and the NWS SLC office do.

I've been told that NYSDOT residences use AccuWeather and will be out plowing if any amount of snow has even a chance of falling.

[kphoger]

Some fault lies in ... businesses staying open when they shouldn't be ... When schools or businesses require you to come in, you really have no choice but to venture out or call in sick (the latter not always being an option).

I work in cable, so the worst weather–especially ice–brings our busiest work.  If there's one day you don't want to call in sick, it's the day of a huge winter storm.  Not only are there already customers waiting for their scheduled appointments, but there are also downed lines that need to be re-hung.  I found this out on my second day of work:  the roads were covered in ice, and I wasn't sure if the office would be shut down or not.  I decided to come in just in case, and the place was hopping with activity.  Re-hanging downed drops can be a cable tech's best-paying day if they get paid by the point and not hourly.  Each job is so many points, and all you have to do is stick a ladder on the pole, reattach the drop to the pole or house, and move on to the next job.  It's good money.

I've worked here since 2008, and I can only remember maybe three times when we were given the green light by the service provider(s) to call customers and encourage them to reschedule due to weather.  And, even then–except maybe once–the customers were afforded the right to say no and keep their appointment for that day.  But it doesn't matter, because I was the one calling them, so I had to be in the office to do that anyway.

We cover large markets in Kansas, Lincoln (NE), Kansas City, NW Arkansas, Tulsa, and OKC; we used to cover markets in Omaha and Dallas as well.  I remember when Dallas was hit by the huge snowstorm a few years ago, I was calling customers to reschedule, and one lady was going on about how the people of Dallas were milking the storm for all it was worth, shutting businesses down for three days in a row...

I remember once, they closed I-135 on the north side of Wichita–while I was on it heading to work in the morning.  I had to figure out an alternate route, ended up having to pass a stuck tow truck at a stoplight and several drivers who couldn't make it up an overpass and had started sliding backwards.  I was 25 minutes late to work and still the first one there.  One of the VPs gave me a gift card in appreciation.  The ice didn't melt from the undercarriage of my minivan for a whole week.

[jeffandnicole]

But the Dots usually do a good job of making their own weather prediction's & go off of that. Why they misjudged yesterday, was confusing. If something major would have happened then who would have taken that "Fall" ?

Actually, they don't.  They use the same forecasts we use.  They may get it from a different source, but ultimately, all weather forecasting has a base of the National Weather Service or Accu-Weather. 

There's been plenty of times where they've had too much equipment available for a storm that never materialized. Again, that's based off of publicly available weather forecasts.  That becomes money wasted...money that could've been spent repaving and widening roads.

If you're using AccuWeather, the Weather Channel, or another similar source, you should not be making official plans. The primary goal of news outlets like that is not to provide accurate forecasts, it's to make money.

DOTs do hire their own meteorologists on occasion, and often times the NWS will coordinate with a DOT regarding the forecast. At least that's what UDOT and the NWS SLC office do.

The primary source of any weather forecast comes from the NOAA as they're the one sending satellites into space.  The 2 main paths of getting that info to the public is via the NWS and Accu-Weather.  The Weather Channel uses the NWS.  Accu-weather sells their info to numerous meteorologists and media stations.  No matter who or where you get your weather from, it's come from NOAA satellite equipment, which fed its info to those two sources.

While, yes, the Weather Channel is designed to make money, why would they call for snow in some areas and not others?  Why not just say the entire nation will be under a blizzard warning for the next 3 months?  Why did they call for rain in areas that got snow yesterday?  So the theory that they're out there just to make money is easily rebuked.

DOTs do hire their own meteorologists, but they're there to give them specialized info for localized areas.  The info still came from NWS or Accu-Weather.  Not Channel 6 ABC Accu-Weather, but from Accu-Weather's main source of info.

Philly's main NWS office is in Mt. Laurel, NJ.  And the various TV stations that contract with the NWS will interview them often.  And they're going to tell us how great they were...or why their models didn't predict what happened.

[jeffandnicole]

I remember once, they closed I-135 on the north side of Wichita—while I was on it heading to work in the morning.  I had to figure out an alternate route, ended up having to pass a stuck tow truck at a stoplight and several drivers who couldn't make it up an overpass and had started sliding backwards.  I was 25 minutes late to work and still the first one there.  One of the VPs gave me a gift card in appreciation.  The ice didn't melt from the undercarriage of my minivan for a whole week.

Love stories like that.

A friend of mine moved to the Atlanta area several years ago from Delaware.  She was stuck on the highway during the minor snowfall blast they had a few years ago.  So she took her car into the median and just drove.  Made great time she said!

[kphoger]

If you're using AccuWeather, the Weather Channel, or another similar source, you should not be making official plans. The primary goal of news outlets like that is not to provide accurate forecasts, it's to make money.

While, yes, the Weather Channel is designed to make money, why would they call for snow in some areas and not others?  Why not just say the entire nation will be under a blizzard warning for the next 3 months?  Why did they call for rain in areas that got snow yesterday?  So the theory that they're out there just to make money is easily rebuked.

I'll go even further.  Because the primary goal of news outlets like that is to make money, it is in their own best interest to provide accurate forecasts.  Doing shoddy work at forecasting could lead to a loss of profit.  You should therefore have even more confidence in them than if they didn't profit on weather forecasting.

I remember once, they closed I-135 on the north side of Wichita—while I was on it heading to work in the morning.  I had to figure out an alternate route, ended up having to pass a stuck tow truck at a stoplight and several drivers who couldn't make it up an overpass and had started sliding backwards.  I was 25 minutes late to work and still the first one there.  One of the VPs gave me a gift card in appreciation.  The ice didn't melt from the undercarriage of my minivan for a whole week.

Love stories like that.

A friend of mine moved to the Atlanta area several years ago from Delaware.  She was stuck on the highway during the minor snowfall blast they had a few years ago.  So she took her car into the median and just drove.  Made great time she said!

Just this past Monday morning, we had a little bit of snow here.  There was apparently a wreck on Kellogg (US-54/400) that had my entire half of the freeway closed.  I ended up sitting in traffic for 30 minutes until the wreck was cleared.  But I almost decided not to wait.  When I realized how bad the jam was, I was still within striking distance of a curb and a grassy neutral space between the main roadway and the frontage road.  There was even a set of tire tracks there to let me know someone else had had the same idea.  My car has 4WD too, to boot.  But I decided against it.  Mainly because I have trouble getting my car back out of 4WD, so I try to use it as little as possible.

[froggie]

Actually, they don't.  They use the same forecasts we use.  They may get it from a different source, but ultimately, all weather forecasting has a base of the National Weather Service or Accu-Weather. 

Only in the sense that the raw data originates with the NWS's parent agency.  You're conflating forecasts with base data, which is just not the case in reality.

[jakeroot]

Some fault lies in ... businesses staying open when they shouldn't be ... When schools or businesses require you to come in, you really have no choice but to venture out or call in sick (the latter not always being an option).

I work in cable, so the worst weather–especially ice–brings our busiest work.  If there's one day you don't want to call in sick, it's the day of a huge winter storm.

Obviously service-related jobs are excluded from that, as there are people actively relying on those services. When I worked in the hotel industry, employees who were working during snowstorms would stay overnight at the hotel and keep working the next morning. If you weren't working the prior evening, but worked in the AM, you were still expected to show up, even if you'd be late. There's 166 rooms at the hotel. It would be a disaster if everyone called out, so you're not allowed to with storms.

[webny99]

We got about 6 inches here in the Rochester area, with lower totals to points north and west, and higher totals to points south and east. It was certainly early - the biggest pre-Thanksgiving storm I remember, ever - but not unmanageable. Plow stakes went in a few weeks ago, signifying it wasn't THAT out of the ordinary. However, I really do get a kick out of the East Coast's inability to handle large snowfalls. Our roads were completely clear by this morning - in fact traffic was moving better this morning than it usually is.

Wow, though. I had Google Maps open (with live traffic turned on as usual) last night around 5:30. At that time, every main road in the entire NYC area - radiating at least 50 miles - was solid red. And I don't mean the regular red, I mean the dark red that's closer to maroon, meaning completely stopped. I do a lot of browsing on Google Maps and I have never seen anything that intense before. It was just a really, really bad combination. It was bad here, too, but as I said, it is almost laughable at times, given how much better Upstate NY is at handling snow than the East Coast. Sure, it wasn't exactly pleasant to wake up to all that snow, but no one really batted an eyelash. Business as usual. To be expected between Halloween and mid-April.

[ET21]

Good thing I wasn't the forecaster on that system 

[Tonytone]

Amazing that all the snow is gone & all thats left is the piles the plows pushed. Looking forward to this great snowy season & the fun this thread will bring!!!


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[02 Park Ave]

It certainly didn't help on Thursday that there is no NOAA Weather Radio station in New York.

[Duke87]

I think other provinces have similar laws, but British Columbia requires M+S tires on most roads outside the Lower Mainland and areas of Vancouver Island between 01 Oct and 31 March.

In more northerly areas of BC the requirement extends to April 30th.


Regardless, snow tires/chains/studs are... not a thing anywhere along the northeast corridor. Not for ordinary cars anyway. You'll see transit agencies put chains on buses in anticipation of storms, but no one owns a set of any of these things for their own personal use. Nor should they, because it isn't necessary. The climate here is not cold enough to create blowing/drifting snow as a constant thing even when the sun is shining and it last snowed three days ago, and DOTs typically try to achieve and maintain bare pavement as soon as they can.

Bare all-weather tires are absolutely fine for our purposes... and having some sort of traction add won't compensate for the fact that some people, in spite of having to drive in snow multiple times every year, are inept at doing so.
And as the Bayonne Bridge fiasco shows (it was closed for several hours because someone tried to drive the incline up onto it at a crawl and got stuck), it only takes one idiot to screw things up for everyone else.

[froggie]

It certainly didn't help on Thursday that there is no NOAA Weather Radio station in New York.

They still haven't relocated the transmitter?

[MNHighwayMan]

It's tough.  Unless everyone stays home in the morning, this will always happen.  And if everyone stays home and this didn't happen, there'd be a lot of heat on people for making them stay home for no reason.

And the people that cause this mess - the Meteorologists - escape unharmed.

This is a joke, right? You're admitting that the meteorologists are stuck between a rock and a hard place, but you go on to blame them anyway for being in a no-win situation.

[Super Mateo]

It's tough.  Unless everyone stays home in the morning, this will always happen.  And if everyone stays home and this didn't happen, there'd be a lot of heat on people for making them stay home for no reason.

And the people that cause this mess - the Meteorologists - escape unharmed.

This is a joke, right? You're admitting that the meteorologists are stuck between a rock and a hard place, but you go on to blame them anyway for being in a no-win situation.

Unfortunately, no, they're not joking.  They are serious blaming meteorologists for people's inability to drive in bad weather.  I don't need a weather report to tell me it's snowing and that the roads are wet and possibly icy.  That means for driving to slow down and be cautious.

If you were involved in a collision, imagine trying to convince a judge or a police officer that your crash was the weather forecasters' fault.  Good luck with that.

[Tonytone]

It's tough.  Unless everyone stays home in the morning, this will always happen.  And if everyone stays home and this didn't happen, there'd be a lot of heat on people for making them stay home for no reason.

And the people that cause this mess - the Meteorologists - escape unharmed.

This is a joke, right? You're admitting that the meteorologists are stuck between a rock and a hard place, but you go on to blame them anyway for being in a no-win situation.

Unfortunately, no, they're not joking.  They are serious blaming meteorologists for people's inability to drive in bad weather.  I don't need a weather report to tell me it's snowing and that the roads are wet and possibly icy.  That means for driving to slow down and be cautious.

If you were involved in a collision, imagine trying to convince a judge or a police officer that your crash was the weather forecasters' fault.  Good luck with that.

Hold on, I'm not gonna say that people should judge the roads on meteorologists. But isn't that their job? Why have police if they aren't gonna protect & serve? Why have roads if they aren't used for cars/people? Everyone has a job & that job, helps other people, if it is information or literally a team building a house together. If we don't work together. How will S**t get done? Yes saying the meteorologists misjudged info got me into accident, would not work. But if they would have had that information correct. Would that same person or other people have gotten into an accident? Don't just think about yourself when you make statements about others. If that was the case all intersections would be uncontrolled and/or a 4 way stop sign, since everyone knows what to do.


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[jemacedo9]

It's tough.  Unless everyone stays home in the morning, this will always happen.  And if everyone stays home and this didn't happen, there'd be a lot of heat on people for making them stay home for no reason.

And the people that cause this mess - the Meteorologists - escape unharmed.

This is a joke, right? You're admitting that the meteorologists are stuck between a rock and a hard place, but you go on to blame them anyway for being in a no-win situation.

Unfortunately, no, they're not joking.  They are serious blaming meteorologists for people's inability to drive in bad weather.  I don't need a weather report to tell me it's snowing and that the roads are wet and possibly icy.  That means for driving to slow down and be cautious.

If you were involved in a collision, imagine trying to convince a judge or a police officer that your crash was the weather forecasters' fault.  Good luck with that.

So nicely oversimplified.

In my opinion, the issue with this specific storm, and the related commutes that took 4-7 hours in SE PA / S NJ / N DE were as follows:
1. The majority of the weather forecasts that morning called for minimal snow (coating to 2 inches dependent on location) to start after the rush hour with temps rising from around 32 and an changeover to rain mid-morning to mid-afternoon. Some of those forecasts specified that the snow was going to be mainly on grassy surfaces.
2. In my opinion, that led to minimal preparation by the area DOTs.
3. In my opinion, that led to all of the schools remaining open as normal.
4. In my opinion, that led everyone to go about their normal morning commutes to work and school on dry roads.
5. By mid-morning, the temps had in fact not risen, but dropped into the upper 20s, which caused the snow to stick quickly and not changeover to rain.
6. At this point, schools started early dismissals, which lead to people leaving work early, which lead to offices closing, all while DOTs were scrambling to get crews out.
7. The gridlock all over the place ensued not just with accidents, but with many vehicles unable to get up icy unsalted unplowed hills, particularly as plows became stuck within the gridlock.

The main issue in my opinion in this case is the combination of the inaccurate forecast, plus the panic of everyone hitting the roads all at once instead of waiting things out. Though with schools closing early, some/many did not have a choice.

An earlier post pointed out that mid-week storms are particularly rough in this area, which is true.
And I am willing to concede that weather forecasting isn't ever a 100% guarantee. But the main issues I have with the weather forecasters in this area are:
1. There is so much bragging of how accurate each of them are, and they deliver their forecasts as iron-clad precision. In this storm, there wasn't a hint in any of the forecasts of the potential of prolonged icing with a slight temp drop.
2. In mid-afternoon, several forecasters were asserting that their forecasts were correct..  Which is correct in that their 12N forecasts were correct, but not the morning ones.

[jakeroot]

Hey morons. Ever heard the story about the "boy who cried wolf"? I won't re-hash, but a few things need saying.

1) Meteorologists rely on models to predict the weather. These models aren't always in agreement, so you have to go on past reliability. Of course, that reliability is based on every other weather event beforehand, so there's no true best model.

2) Even if all models are in agreement, there is no certainty that the weather event will happen. After all, they're still predicting the future!

3) Forecasting the worst model and then hoping it doesn't happen isn't a smart way to forecast. It leads to over-preparation, wasted resources, and increasing ignorance over time thanks to increasingly poor reliability.

If the next event is forecasted as "huge" and then under-performs, people still throw the meteorologists under the bus for making them worry, prepare, etc. See how they can't win?

[MNHighwayMan]

Hold on, I'm not gonna say that people should judge the roads on meteorologists. But isn't that their job? ...

They did do their job. As froggie pointed out, the forecast was likely not one with high confidence. Could they have underscored that more in broadcasting the forecast? Sure. But then people will just rip them for being uncertain, and some idiots will call them even more lazy because knowing with certainty is, in their minds, supposed to be the forecasters' job.

As I said, it's no-win for them.

[Tonytone]

Hold on, I'm not gonna say that people should judge the roads on meteorologists. But isn't that their job? ...

They did do their job. As froggie pointed out, the forecast was likely not one with high confidence. Could they have underscored that more in broadcasting the forecast? Sure. But then people will just rip them for being uncertain, and some idiots will call them even more lazy because knowing with certainty is, in their minds, supposed to be the forecasters' job.

As I said, it's no-win for them.

So again. If there were a law requiring correct results of weather... who would go to jail?


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[MNHighwayMan]

I'm not even going to entertain that thought because the entire notion is absurd.

[Tonytone]

Welcome to the world.


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