Snowy Weather/Human driving capacity

Started by Tonytone, November 15, 2018, 08:58:29 PM

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ET21

Quote from: jakeroot on November 18, 2018, 08:14:04 PM
Hey morons. Ever heard the story about the "boy who cried wolf"? I won't re-hash, but a few things need saying.

1) Meteorologists rely on models to predict the weather. These models aren't always in agreement, so you have to go on past reliability. Of course, that reliability is based on every other weather event beforehand, so there's no true best model.

2) Even if all models are in agreement, there is no certainty that the weather event will happen. After all, they're still predicting the future!

3) Forecasting the worst model and then hoping it doesn't happen isn't a smart way to forecast. It leads to over-preparation, wasted resources, and increasing ignorance over time thanks to increasingly poor reliability.

If the next event is forecasted as "huge" and then under-performs, people still throw the meteorologists under the bus for making them worry, prepare, etc. See how they can't win?

:clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap:
The local weatherman, trust me I can be 99.9% right!
"Show where you're going, without forgetting where you're from"

Clinched:
IL: I-88, I-180, I-190, I-290, I-294, I-355, IL-390
IN: I-80, I-94
SD: I-190
WI: I-90, I-94
MI: I-94, I-196
MN: I-90


hotdogPi

The temperature should be displayed in the format of "37±5". That would help some.
Clinched, minus I-93 (I'm missing a few miles and my file is incorrect)

Traveled, plus US 13, 44, and 50, and several state routes

I will be in Burlington VT for the eclipse.

paulthemapguy

Quote from: Tonytone on November 16, 2018, 10:38:59 AM
Are you telling me people don't understand that, Cold air under the bridge causes Ice to form?

Yeah, I would say most people don't understand it.  Or at least, they never considered it.  I drove I-57 down to southern Illinois on 11/9, where this was exactly the case.  We passed 5 cars in ditches downstream of overpasses.  And I was still the only one to put my flashers on and slow down to 35mph going over each overpass.
Avatar is the last interesting highway I clinched.
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Tonytone

Quote from: paulthemapguy on November 19, 2018, 10:18:17 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on November 16, 2018, 10:38:59 AM
Are you telling me people don't understand that, Cold air under the bridge causes Ice to form?

Yeah, I would say most people don't understand it.  Or at least, they never considered it.  I drove I-57 down to southern Illinois on 11/9, where this was exactly the case.  We passed 5 cars in ditches downstream of overpasses.  And I was still the only one to put my flashers on and slow down to 35mph going over each overpass.
Wow, so I guess people think those "Bridges freeze before roadway"  signs, are just there for trucks or something? Who gives these people licenses? I hope they didn't get them @ Drives Ed in high school.
Makes me wonder, do I take life to seriously, or the lead amounts are different in every cities water.


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paulthemapguy

Quote from: Tonytone on November 19, 2018, 10:21:33 AM
Quote from: paulthemapguy on November 19, 2018, 10:18:17 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on November 16, 2018, 10:38:59 AM
Are you telling me people don't understand that, Cold air under the bridge causes Ice to form?

Yeah, I would say most people don't understand it.  Or at least, they never considered it.  I drove I-57 down to southern Illinois on 11/9, where this was exactly the case.  We passed 5 cars in ditches downstream of overpasses.  And I was still the only one to put my flashers on and slow down to 35mph going over each overpass.
Wow, so I guess people think those "Bridges freeze before roadway"  signs, are just there for trucks or something? Who gives these people licenses? I hope they didn't get them @ Drives Ed in high school.
Makes me wonder, do I take life to seriously, or the lead amounts are different in every cities water.
iPhone

Those signs are uncommon in Illinois if they even exist at all.  Also, there are a lot of discrepancies between driver's-education booksmarts and the practical needs for skills to develop as an actual driver.
Avatar is the last interesting highway I clinched.
My website! http://www.paulacrossamerica.com Now featuring all of Ohio!
My USA Shield Gallery https://flic.kr/s/aHsmHwJRZk
TM Clinches https://bit.ly/2UwRs4O

National collection status: 361/425. Only 64 route markers remain

1995hoo

The road seen in my photo doesn't have those signs. Off the top of my head, I can't think of any of them in the immediate Fairfax County area, but I would not be surprised to learn I'm wrong. Shouldn't really matter, as the overpasses at the Springfield Interchange have frozen over a couple of times and gotten ample media coverage, but I think people just get on autopilot in the mornings, and no doubt some of the people who crashed were looking at their phones instead of driving.

In the Street View link below, the pileup seen in my photo further up the thread was located roughly where that bus on the right is in the distance. I was in the far right lane heading to the loop-around ramp to go to the parking garage at the Metro station. This is the first time I ever recall that particular overpass freezing over (assuming it was–I didn't feel anything out of the ordinary as I drove across it, but then I was absolutely crawling due to slowed traffic from the pileup).

https://www.google.com/maps/@38.7672494,-77.1641531,3a,75y,283.93h,90t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sRNnnvsGXkHpS01K3CtfbCg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656
"You know, you never have a guaranteed spot until you have a spot guaranteed."
—Olaf Kolzig, as quoted in the Washington Times on March 28, 2003,
commenting on the Capitals clinching a playoff spot.

"That sounded stupid, didn't it?"
—Kolzig, to the same reporter a few seconds later.

jemacedo9

Quote from: MNHighwayMan on November 18, 2018, 11:43:31 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on November 18, 2018, 06:44:26 PM
Hold on, I'm not gonna say that people should judge the roads on meteorologists. But isn't that their job? ...

They did do their job. As froggie pointed out, the forecast was likely not one with high confidence. Could they have underscored that more in broadcasting the forecast? Sure. But then people will just rip them for being uncertain, and some idiots will call them even more lazy because knowing with certainty is, in their minds, supposed to be the forecasters' job.

As I said, it's no-win for them.

The TV forecasts that morning, as most were, were stated with the normal implication of high confidence.  "Here's what WILL happen, hour by hour." And that's my issue. If you're going to constantly state high accuracy (in a field where high accuracy isn't always even possible), then yes, you're going to face criticism. As, as I've said a few times...when you double-down on your accuracy in the moments when you weren't accurate, then you'll face criticism.  And in addition, as I've said, at least in this area, there is a lot of competition between TV stations around forecast accuracy...and when they are right, we get a lot of self-posturing and patting-on-the-back comments.

TV stations, at least here, all brag about taking the available data and fine-tuning based on their expertise. The NWS forecast that morning spoke of only moderate confidence.

For the record, I did not go out that day, as I know that forecasting is not an exact science, and it seemed too iffy for me. So I was saved the hassle of 4-7 hour commutes that day.

I can't speak for anyone else here...but my comments on this post were mainly for this specific storm, in this area.  The experiences I've had with the forecasters in the Philly area are vastly different than the ones in the Rochester NY area, which has much less hype and are much more cautionary...in what I think is a tougher geography for weather.

bzakharin

I think early dismissals didn't help matters, because eventually the temperatures *did* go up and the snow *did* change over to rain, maybe not enough to do much good for some people, but I left work at 6 PM (as usual) and the snow was in the process of being washed away. I've been in situations like this before when the forecast was a lot more accurate. Businesses and schools largely don't close on the forecast of bad weather due to the forecasts not being accurate enough. They close when the bad weather starts, even if the forecast is for it to end before evening commute. I once had to climb the hill I've lived on at the time while it was covered with ice, even though it was *already* above freezing, and the ice melted 2 hours later.

The weather forecasters do their jobs the best they can. People don't understand probabilities when it comes to weather. My grandfather, quite well-educated, constantly grumbles about this "percentage nonsense". "Just tell me if it will rain." So the TV forecasts do just that, at the expense of things like this happening. Because, honestly, would you do anything differently if they told you that there was a 20% chance the snow would continue beyond the 2 PM that was forecast? What if it was 5%? I am actually somewhat of an amateur meteorologist, and I made a judgement for myself (on whether to go to work) based on the facts. It was already 32 degrees. There was no cold air for the storm to tap into, except evaporational cooling, which is usually very temporary. Its energy was coming from the Atlantic (50 degree water temperature) and the Gulf of Mexico (a lot warmer). It was a daytime storm in November. The sun angle during daytime will prevent all but the heaviest of snow from sticking except late November through early February. Everything had to happen just right (wrong?) for there to be accumulations on roads. Obviously it did, but there was no reason to believe it would.

As for the DOTs, I often feel like they have better information, as I've seen them spreading brine before storms that the NWS were underforecasting. This was true this time as well, since the portion of the Atlantic City Expressway that was affected by the storm was salted by the time I was making my way to work (yes, I know it's not run by NJDOT, just an example).

kphoger

Quote from: Tonytone on November 18, 2018, 11:46:17 PM
So again. If there were a law requiring correct results of weather... who would go to jail?

God.  Put God in jail.  For not doing what the meteorologists said to.
How the heck can you even entertain the thought of mandating correct results for predicting the future?
Keep right except to pass.  Yes.  You.
Visit scenic Orleans County, NY!
Male pronouns, please.

Quote from: Philip K. DickIf you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use them.

Rothman

Quote from: kphoger on November 19, 2018, 02:39:44 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on November 18, 2018, 11:46:17 PM
So again. If there were a law requiring correct results of weather... who would go to jail?

God.  Put God in jail.  For not doing what the meteorologists said to.
How the heck can you even entertain the thought of mandating correct results for predicting the future?
I can entertain that thought.  If meteorologists are not judged on their abilities to forecast, then they can do no wrong.  That strikes me as just a severe a position as throwing them in jail.
Please note: All comments here represent my own personal opinion and do not reflect the official position(s) of NYSDOT.

Tonytone

Quote from: kphoger on November 19, 2018, 02:39:44 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on November 18, 2018, 11:46:17 PM
So again. If there were a law requiring correct results of weather... who would go to jail?

God.  Put God in jail.  For not doing what the meteorologists said to.
How the heck can you even entertain the thought of mandating correct results for predicting the future?
They wouldn't go to jail for not "predicting the future"  they would get in trouble for false statements that cause more harm then help"  if weather models are "predictions"  why would you tell people to follow it & then it doesn't happen. Sounds a lot like a placebo effect to me. Weather channels should just say "This is a prediction, we wont know for sure until the first few hours"  but just be ready for it."  Instead of positively stating, over & over, that the facts are correct, & it's going to happen just like it says. Either the weather is something that can never be truly followed, technology isn't powerful enough yet, or they just wing most of the "predictions they come up with" .


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kphoger

Quote from: Rothman on November 19, 2018, 02:48:20 PM

Quote from: kphoger on November 19, 2018, 02:39:44 PM

Quote from: Tonytone on November 18, 2018, 11:46:17 PM
So again. If there were a law requiring correct results of weather... who would go to jail?

God.  Put God in jail.  For not doing what the meteorologists said to.
How the heck can you even entertain the thought of mandating correct results for predicting the future?

I can entertain that thought.  If meteorologists are not judged on their abilities to forecast, then they can do no wrong.  That strikes me as just a severe a position as throwing them in jail.

But they are judged on their abilities to forecast.  If they perform poorly enough, people will stop trusting them, stop watching them or listening to them, and *gasp* then the station will have bad ratings.

Quote from: Tonytone on November 19, 2018, 02:51:45 PM
They wouldn't go to jail for not "predicting the future"  they would get in trouble for false statements that cause more harm then help"  if weather models are "predictions"  why would you tell people to follow it & then it doesn't happen. Sounds a lot like a placebo effect to me. Weather channels should just say "This is a prediction, we wont know for sure until the first few hours"  but just be ready for it."  Instead of positively stating, over & over, that the facts are correct, & it's going to happen just like it says. Either the weather is something that can never be truly followed, technology isn't power enough yet, or they just wing most of the "predictions they come up with" .

If you honestly believe that weather forecasts are ever anything more than predictions, then you need a serious dose of reality.  It's like requiring "Contents may be hot" to be put on coffee cups.  No shit it's hot.  No shit it's just a prediction.
Keep right except to pass.  Yes.  You.
Visit scenic Orleans County, NY!
Male pronouns, please.

Quote from: Philip K. DickIf you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use them.

Tonytone

Quote from: kphoger on November 19, 2018, 02:56:47 PM
Quote from: Rothman on November 19, 2018, 02:48:20 PM

Quote from: kphoger on November 19, 2018, 02:39:44 PM

Quote from: Tonytone on November 18, 2018, 11:46:17 PM
So again. If there were a law requiring correct results of weather... who would go to jail?

God.  Put God in jail.  For not doing what the meteorologists said to.
How the heck can you even entertain the thought of mandating correct results for predicting the future?

I can entertain that thought.  If meteorologists are not judged on their abilities to forecast, then they can do no wrong.  That strikes me as just a severe a position as throwing them in jail.

But they are judged on their abilities to forecast.  If they perform poorly enough, people will stop trusting them, stop watching them or listening to them, and *gasp* then the station will have bad ratings.

Quote from: Tonytone on November 19, 2018, 02:51:45 PM
They wouldn't go to jail for not "predicting the future"  they would get in trouble for false statements that cause more harm then help"  if weather models are "predictions"  why would you tell people to follow it & then it doesn't happen. Sounds a lot like a placebo effect to me. Weather channels should just say "This is a prediction, we wont know for sure until the first few hours"  but just be ready for it."  Instead of positively stating, over & over, that the facts are correct, & it's going to happen just like it says. Either the weather is something that can never be truly followed, technology isn't power enough yet, or they just wing most of the "predictions they come up with" .

If you honestly believe that weather forecasts are ever anything more than predictions, then you need a serious dose of reality.  It's like requiring "Contents may be hot" to be put on coffee cups.  No shit it's hot.  No shit it's just a prediction.
Thats not a prediction, thats a fact. The coffee is made with boiling hot water, I didn't ask for a "Iced Coffee"  I asked for a "Coffee"  so I know its gonna be
A-Hot
Or
B-Really Hot


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Tonytone

Quote from: kphoger on November 19, 2018, 02:56:47 PM
Quote from: Rothman on November 19, 2018, 02:48:20 PM

Quote from: kphoger on November 19, 2018, 02:39:44 PM

Quote from: Tonytone on November 18, 2018, 11:46:17 PM
So again. If there were a law requiring correct results of weather... who would go to jail?

God.  Put God in jail.  For not doing what the meteorologists said to.
How the heck can you even entertain the thought of mandating correct results for predicting the future?

I can entertain that thought.  If meteorologists are not judged on their abilities to forecast, then they can do no wrong.  That strikes me as just a severe a position as throwing them in jail.

But they are judged on their abilities to forecast.  If they perform poorly enough, people will stop trusting them, stop watching them or listening to them, and *gasp* then the station will have bad ratings.



If you honestly believe that weather forecasts are ever anything more than predictions, then you need a serious dose of reality.  It's like requiring "Contents may be hot" to be put on coffee cups.  No shit it's hot.  No shit it's just a prediction.


Maybe thats the problem, they are treating Weather jobs more like paperwork, & less like the threat to safety that it is.


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kphoger

Quote from: Tonytone on November 19, 2018, 03:04:42 PM
Maybe thats the problem, they are treating Weather jobs more like paperwork, & less like the threat to safety that it is.

Do you honestly believe meteorologists just shrug it off when their bad predictions cause major gridlock and injuries?  Do you honestly believe they just don't care, any more than if it were bad grammar in a report?  Do you honestly believe people who have made it their career to predict the weather for thousands or millions of people don't take seriously the weight of what they do for a living?  My goodness, what cynicism!  Predicting the weather is not a perfect science.  Everybody knows that.  No need to label a prediction as a prediction, because it's obvious.

If I take to heart the certainty with which a news commentator says such and such a sports team will win a game, and then I go and bet my life savings on that game–do you seriously think I should be able to blame the news commentator when I lose, insisting that he should have prefaced what he said with the words "This is a prediction, we won't know for sure until the fourth quarter"??
Keep right except to pass.  Yes.  You.
Visit scenic Orleans County, NY!
Male pronouns, please.

Quote from: Philip K. DickIf you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use them.

jeffandnicole

Honestly, I think forecasts are wrong more than they're right.  But when they predict partly cloudy skies and 75 and it's really sunny and 80, no one will complain.  If they predict a half inch of rain and we only get a quarter inch, it's not a big deal. 

A difference of 5 degrees when it involves the freezing point makes a huge difference.  But the forecast was just as wrong when the high of 80 was 5 degrees off the prediction of 75.

Are meteorologists graded and somehow promoted or demoted based on their forecasts?  At least the ones on TV don't seem to be.  To the TV stations, it's more about looks and personalities.

Quote from: Super Mateo on November 18, 2018, 03:58:00 PM
Quote from: MNHighwayMan on November 18, 2018, 07:39:16 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on November 16, 2018, 12:40:42 PM
It's tough.  Unless everyone stays home in the morning, this will always happen.  And if everyone stays home and this didn't happen, there'd be a lot of heat on people for making them stay home for no reason.

And the people that cause this mess - the Meteorologists - escape unharmed.

This is a joke, right? You're admitting that the meteorologists are stuck between a rock and a hard place, but you go on to blame them anyway for being in a no-win situation.

Unfortunately, no, they're not joking.  They are serious blaming meteorologists for people's inability to drive in bad weather.  I don't need a weather report to tell me it's snowing and that the roads are wet and possibly icy.  That means for driving to slow down and be cautious.

If you were involved in a collision, imagine trying to convince a judge or a police officer that your crash was the weather forecasters' fault.  Good luck with that.

I, for one, am not blaming the meteorologist for people's bad driving.  I'm blaming the meteorologist for not correctly predicting the weather. 

Schools and businesses have all decided to come in on a regular schedule based on the forecasts leading up to Thursday, and even Thursday morning, based on those forecasts.  By noontime, clearly the forecasts weren't accurate.  But now what do you do?  Do you go back to the same meteorologists that messed up the forecast and suddenly trust them on the current forecast, or do you have to continue to second-guess the forecast?  I don't blame a single person if they decided they couldn't wait any longer and closed school/work early, because if the 7am forecast was proven wrong by noontime, what are the chances that the noon forecast will continue to be proven wrong at 5pm?   At some point, decisions need to be made.

Quote from: MNHighwayMan on November 18, 2018, 11:43:31 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on November 18, 2018, 06:44:26 PM
Hold on, I'm not gonna say that people should judge the roads on meteorologists. But isn't that their job? ...

They did do their job. As froggie pointed out, the forecast was likely not one with high confidence. Could they have underscored that more in broadcasting the forecast? Sure. But then people will just rip them for being uncertain, and some idiots will call them even more lazy because knowing with certainty is, in their minds, supposed to be the forecasters' job.

As I said, it's no-win for them.

If you go back to last Wednesday, they clearly decided that the storm wasn't going to impact many people.  And we're not talking one or two meteorologists; we're talking every one that gave a forecast in multiple cities and nationally.  In this region, we have every major network covered times 3.  If there was a lot of uncertainty, we would see forecasts all over the place.  The forecasted weather was pretty much locked in, viewable via many different sources.

Quote from: kphoger on November 19, 2018, 02:39:44 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on November 18, 2018, 11:46:17 PM
So again. If there were a law requiring correct results of weather... who would go to jail?

God.  Put God in jail.  For not doing what the meteorologists said to.
How the heck can you even entertain the thought of mandating correct results for predicting the future?

Because meteorologists and news channels make it well known that they are the best, most informative source of weather information, with the Mega 50,000 watt satellites and weather forecasts that can predict the weather down to the blade of grass in your yard.  They're not telling you they were correct 37% of the time. They're telling you that they are the most reliable of all of them.  So yes, the public expects them to be correct, because they're advistising it in every which way except for the phrase "we are always correct".

Quote from: kphoger on November 19, 2018, 03:15:39 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on November 19, 2018, 03:04:42 PM
Maybe thats the problem, they are treating Weather jobs more like paperwork, & less like the threat to safety that it is.

Do you honestly believe meteorologists just shrug it off when their bad predictions cause major gridlock and injuries?  Do you honestly believe they just don't care, any more than if it were bad grammar in a report?  Do you honestly believe people who have made it their career to predict the weather for thousands or millions of people don't take seriously the weight of what they do for a living?

How many of them said "Whoops?" to their viewers?

I mentioned, I was listening to the radio on the way home and the reporters were saying "Why were people so unprepared for this storm?".  Well, what am I supposed to do - see a forecast for sun and bring an umbrella and snow shoes?  At some point, there needs to be some trust in the forecast.  When the news stations act like we're at fault for not being prepared, that certainly makes it seem like they try absolving themselves from blame as much as possible.

Brandon

Quote from: paulthemapguy on November 19, 2018, 10:18:17 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on November 16, 2018, 10:38:59 AM
Are you telling me people don't understand that, Cold air under the bridge causes Ice to form?

Yeah, I would say most people don't understand it.  Or at least, they never considered it.  I drove I-57 down to southern Illinois on 11/9, where this was exactly the case.  We passed 5 cars in ditches downstream of overpasses.  And I was still the only one to put my flashers on and slow down to 35mph going over each overpass.

The problem is, it's not the speed that you're going while going over the overpass, it's how steady and straight you are holding the steering wheel (without using the brakes) while going over the overpass.  You can go 35 mph, but if you tap the brake or turn the wheel, you'll still spin out.
"If you think this has a happy ending, you haven't been paying attention." - Ramsay Bolton

"Symbolic of his struggle against reality." - Reg

billpa

I'd like to see the data you're using to make the statement that the forecasters are wrong more than they're right. 

Pixel 2


bzakharin

When I was first getting into weather forecasting as a hobby 20 years ago, the statistics were that a 36-hour forecast is correct 80% of the time. Forecasts beyond that were generally unreliable except for predicting major patterns (relatively accurate placement of high and low pressure areas, etc). Still, conventional wisdom was, "tomorrow will be almost exactly like today" is more accurate than any forecast that has been made. However, it's when a radical change in conditions is to occur that forecasts are most useful. Nowadays, short term forecasts are just a bit more accurate (normally placed at 82%) and long-term ones have gotten a lot better (70% or higher).

Unfortunately, big disruptive events are hardest to forecast correctly. Remember the shock of meteorologists when their models correctly predicted the path and strength of Hurricane Sandy days in advance? But even then, the forecasts are immensely helpful. After all, it *was* forecast that a storm system would move through the area and there would be at least *some* snow. Imagine if that information was not available at all (maybe because you put all the meteorologists in jail).

kphoger

Quote from: jeffandnicole on November 19, 2018, 03:37:29 PM
Well, what am I supposed to do - see a forecast for sun and bring an umbrella and snow shoes?

If I saw a forecast that said we would receive a couple of inches of snow and then it would start to clear up–you can bet your sweet bippy I'd be prepared for much worse weather.  Hearing that sort of forecast, I would know that just being off a couple of degrees would mean vastly different results.  Anytime there's precipitation and the temperature is at or near the freezing point, I always assume there might be a lot more snow and ice than what the forecast predicts.  To me, that's just common sense.
Keep right except to pass.  Yes.  You.
Visit scenic Orleans County, NY!
Male pronouns, please.

Quote from: Philip K. DickIf you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use them.

jakeroot

Quote from: jeffandnicole on November 19, 2018, 03:37:29 PM
Quote from: kphoger on November 19, 2018, 02:39:44 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on November 18, 2018, 11:46:17 PM
So again. If there were a law requiring correct results of weather... who would go to jail?

God.  Put God in jail.  For not doing what the meteorologists said to.
How the heck can you even entertain the thought of mandating correct results for predicting the future?

Because meteorologists and news channels make it well known that they are the best, most informative source of weather information, with the Mega 50,000 watt satellites and weather forecasts that can predict the weather down to the blade of grass in your yard.  They're not telling you they were correct 37% of the time. They're telling you that they are the most reliable of all of them.  So yes, the public expects them to be correct, because they're advistising it in every which way except for the phrase "we are always correct".

...

you cannot be serious

Tonytone

Quote from: kphoger on November 19, 2018, 03:15:39 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on November 19, 2018, 03:04:42 PM
Maybe thats the problem, they are treating Weather jobs more like paperwork, & less like the threat to safety that it is.

Do you honestly believe meteorologists just shrug it off when their bad predictions cause major gridlock and injuries?  Do you honestly believe they just don't care, any more than if it were bad grammar in a report?  Do you honestly believe people who have made it their career to predict the weather for thousands or millions of people don't take seriously the weight of what they do for a living?  My goodness, what cynicism!  Predicting the weather is not a perfect science.  Everybody knows that.  No need to label a prediction as a prediction, because it's obvious.

If I take to heart the certainty with which a news commentator says such and such a sports team will win a game, and then I go and bet my life savings on that game–do you seriously think I should be able to blame the news commentator when I lose, insisting that he should have prefaced what he said with the words "This is a prediction, we won't know for sure until the fourth quarter"??
Ohhhh okkk, now this is a debate; lets say for example.. A political party believed in a set of  beliefs & didn't even care about what the other political party had to say, because their beliefs didn't match their own. This is setting the stage as a game. & now you're team will fight with my team on who's beliefs are better. Even tho both beliefs are probably incorrect or not the solution. Now if both sides know what the real issue is , but focus on other issues that aren't as important. Are they being cynical? I wouldn't say meteorologists don't care. But I wouldn't say they do. I wonder if "Hurricane Shultz"  prediction for that day was wrong. I believe he is known as one of the best meteorologists the Northeast Tristate area has.
& I know that bets & lotteries are a scam so I wouldn't bet much into that either.


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jemacedo9

Quote from: kphoger on November 19, 2018, 04:22:34 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on November 19, 2018, 03:37:29 PM
Well, what am I supposed to do - see a forecast for sun and bring an umbrella and snow shoes?

If I saw a forecast that said we would receive a couple of inches of snow and then it would start to clear up–you can bet your sweet bippy I'd be prepared for much worse weather.  Hearing that sort of forecast, I would know that just being off a couple of degrees would mean vastly different results.  Anytime there's precipitation and the temperature is at or near the freezing point, I always assume there might be a lot more snow and ice than what the forecast predicts.  To me, that's just common sense.

And herein lies the problem.  I (emphasize "I") agree with this. But the vast majority of the general public does not think this way. And definitely did not think this way last week.

Common sense isn't very common these days.........

jemacedo9

Quote from: jakeroot on November 19, 2018, 05:42:39 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on November 19, 2018, 03:37:29 PM
Quote from: kphoger on November 19, 2018, 02:39:44 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on November 18, 2018, 11:46:17 PM
So again. If there were a law requiring correct results of weather... who would go to jail?

God.  Put God in jail.  For not doing what the meteorologists said to.
How the heck can you even entertain the thought of mandating correct results for predicting the future?

Because meteorologists and news channels make it well known that they are the best, most informative source of weather information, with the Mega 50,000 watt satellites and weather forecasts that can predict the weather down to the blade of grass in your yard.  They're not telling you they were correct 37% of the time. They're telling you that they are the most reliable of all of them.  So yes, the public expects them to be correct, because they're advistising it in every which way except for the phrase "we are always correct".

...

you cannot be serious

At least in the Philadelphia area, this is seriously true. They advertise the ability to give forecasts down to your street.
In my time in the Rochester NY area, it was much much less so.
So maybe it's a regional thing?

wxfree

I've always thought it would be a good idea to present forecasts in terms of degrees of certainty.  But how many people would actually understand it?

"We're forecasting two inches of snow in the morning with increasing temperatures and rain in the afternoon.  There's a 50 to 60 percent chances that there will be more snow than forecast, and a 20 to 30 percent chance that the temperature will remain cold enough for snow to continue into the afternoon."

That may be a good forecast, accurately reflecting the likelihood of different outcomes, but what could people do with that information?

This reminds me of the time when I looked at the weather forecast for a place in west Texas and there was a 10% chance of rain and a tornado warning.  If you see a tornado headed toward you do you just go about your business because it's so unlikely to rain at your location?  It was an accurate forecast.  A rain storm affected a small portion of the area, and the "possibly severe" storm turned out to be quite severe.  Whatever the forecast is, you have to adapt to what actually happens.  I remember being under a flash flood warning and ice storm warning at the same time.  There was very heavy rain, and if the temperature had been a degree or two colder it would have caused a horrendous ice storm.  The forecasters explained the range of what might happen, and we had to be ready for either liquid or solid flooding.  I think that was a good approach, telling the public about both outcomes that were likely so we could prepare for either.  I agree that forecasters should put less emphasis on projecting confidence and should portray their level of certainty.  However, people, including transportation authorities, would have to pay more attention to the likelihoods and not expect exact predictions.  And they need to be realize that forecasts are not perfect and should be ready for whatever is in the range of likely outcomes.  When there's any chance of snow or ice, the road crews should be ready for it.
I'd like to buy a vowel, Alex.  What is E?



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