1. Bills (13-4): My one big concern with the Bills is running the ball. It was the reason why their offense fizzled out in the playoffs, playing poorly against the Ravens and then getting blown out by the Chiefs. If Josh Allen has an off game, or even a mediocre game, they're in trouble. Case in point: the Titans and Chiefs games last season. Their defense also struggled against the better passing offenses they played last year. But the Bills' passing offense will carry them to a great regular season.
The Bills were actually top 10 in rushing this year. That surprised me even just now, looking at team rushing stats. Looking at Josh Allen’s game log, the statement about his “off games” pretty much held up; his bad games were the Steelers, Dolphins in week 2, Jaguars, Colts, Patriots in week 13, the first half of the Buccaneers game, and Falcons. They went 2-5 in those games. As expected, Allen was top 10 in pass completions, attempts, yards, and touchdowns.
2. Dolphins (11-6): I was very anti-Dolphins last season but I'm coming around on them now. The two reasons why I don't think they will win the division are a) we don't know if Tua is the answer at QB, and b) the Bills absolutely gashed them last year to the tune of 87 points over two games. But they have an excellent group of skill players and a good secondary.
Tua had his moments this year, such as the Falcons game (32/40, 291 yds, 4 TDs, 2 INTs), and the stretch from weeks 11-13 when he completed 84 of 105 passes (80%) with 5 TDs and only one pick. But overall he was underwhelming, and some injury concerns continued to mount. If I was the Dolphins, I would give him one more year and one more year only to prove himself. We’ll see what happens. I was initially a big fan of the Will Fuller acquisition, but injuries limited him to 4 receptions for 26 yards on the season. Jaylen Waddle is one of several 2021 draft class WRs that could be a star. I was at least right about their struggles against the Bills, as they lost by a combined score of 61-11 in their two meetings.
3. Patriots (9-8): I'm always skeptical of teams who draft QBs in the first round, but I don't think Belichick will be rushing to get Mac Jones in there too soon. The problem is that Cam Newton can't throw the ball downfield, yet all New England has are deep ball WRs. They have two good tight ends, but tight ends do not win you a lot of games. Overall it's a decent team but they have no "it factor", nobody who is going to scare opposing teams.
Ha, ha ha . . . Belichick got Jones in there pretty quick, but he was ready. His only performance early in the season that resembled a traditional “rookie QB game” was against the Saints. Either I was wrong about their lack of a death by 1,000 paper cuts WR, or Belichick made great adjustments with the players he had to fit Jones’ strengths. Probably both. They didn’t have an “it factor”, and that’s why they didn’t last a quarter in the playoffs.
4. Jets (2-15): They'll go 0-6 in the division because in terms of talent and experience they are far inferior everywhere on the field compared to the other three teams in the division. With a first year coaching staff, a bad offensive line, and a below average skill group, Zach Wilson will have a rough time in year 1.
As expected, the Jets were terrible. I was right about 0-6 in the division. But I have to say, I feel more optimistic about their future than I have in at least six or seven years. They have two first round picks, two second round picks, a third round pick, and two fourth round picks. If they can hit on a few of those, I would not be surprised to see this team in the playoff hunt in 2022. Wilson has found a little traction lately. Whether Robert Saleh will work out long term is still anyone’s guess, but it at least hasn’t been a total disaster. And hey, they gave us one of the iconic moments of this season: Mike White’s 405 passing yards and shocking comeback victory against a playoff team in his first career start.
1. Ravens (13-4): They will once again have the best rushing offense in the league by far. Lamar Jackson's passing stats will improve with the addition of a few wide receivers including Sammy Watkins. But the best rushing offense doesn't get you far in the playoffs if you can't consistently throw for 250-350 yards a game.
They ended up 3rd in the league in rushing, and that was with their top two RBs going down early in the season, and their part-time RB starting quarterback also missing a few games. Lamar’s passing stats improved in some areas and declined in others, but to me it was obvious that he threw the ball much better in 2021 than he did in 2020. Had they not been ravaged by injuries all season long, they undoubtedly would have gotten closer to the 13-4 mark I predicted, though perhaps not all the way there.
2. Browns (13-4): I have them second in the division because they struggled against the Ravens last year, giving up a total of 85 points in those two games. Baker Mayfield will take another step forward, but he won't by any means be an elite quarterback. They have the best offensive line and probably the best duo of running backs in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Their secondary was atrocious last year but they improved it in the offseason, with John Johnson from the Rams and Greg Newsome from Northwestern. Even so I think they get ripped apart by the Chiefs in week 1 because it's not good to play the Chiefs with a brand new secondary.
No, no, and no. Except for the improvement of their secondary. That part was correct, as they were top 10 in pass defense this year. They did lose to the Chiefs in week 1, but it was a much closer game than I expected. Baker took about 4 steps backwards. Chubb and Hunt were not the best duo in the league, though D’Ernest Johnson came out of nowhere and finished with more yards than Hunt. A combination of very poor quarterback play, injuries, and questionable coaching at times made them the most disappointing team of the year. It was mostly the quarterback play though.
3. Steelers (11-6): The only thing people remember about the Steelers is how they slumped to end the season, not how they started 11-0. But they did start 11-0. Big Ben is still better than people think. They have three great young receivers. They have improved their running game with Najee Harris. Their pass rush is really good. The problem is that I don't think they will do any better than 1-3 against the top two teams in the division.
Take everything I said here, and bump it down one single notch. That’s basically how the Steelers’ season went. Big Ben wasn’t completely awful, but it was still one of the worst, if not the worst, season of his career. They have three good young receivers, one of which probably won’t be with the team in 2022. They led the league in sacks again, but it seemed like they came in bunches; there were games when that great defensive front was not much of a factor at all. They even came up one round short of my prediction - I had them losing to the Chiefs in the divisional, and they lost to the Chiefs in the wild card. The only pleasant surprise was Najee Harris’ outstanding rookie season. Hopefully he stays healthy and doesn’t turn into another Saquon Barkley. Despite the mediocre record, this season also spoke to how great of a coach Tomlin is. There were numerous occasions where it seemed like this team was going to crumble for good (1-3 start, blowout loss to the Bengals, down 29-0 to the Vikings, blowout loss to the Chiefs), but they came back fighting every time.
4. Bengals (5-12): Similar to the Jets but not as bad, the Bengals will be the obvious runt of the litter in this division. They might snatch an upset win over Pittsburgh or Cleveland. Joe Burrow is still recovering from injury, their offensive line is still bad, and their defense is still really bad.
Oh, boy. In my defense, a lot of people were thinking this same way before the season. Defense could still use plenty of improvement though.
1. Titans (10-7): Their offense will be top 6-8 in the league, and their defense will be bottom 10. They benefit from being in a weak division.
Their offense was top 6-8 before Henry got hurt, now they’re middle of the pack. Their defense is also middle of the pack. I feel that they haven’t been quite as good as their record indicates, but they’re definitely a playoff team. They did indeed benefit from being in a weak division, with almost half their wins coming inside of it.
2. Colts (7-10): They are better than their record will show, but the fact is there are so many good teams in the AFC that it has to be like that for some teams. Carson Wentz's foot injury is concerning, even if he's ready to go in week 1. Let's not forget that Wentz was less than impressive in 2020. They had a tendency to play down to the level of their opponent last year, I think they'll lose some close games that they should have won.
I believe they were better than their record indicates, as most of their losses came early in the season when they were trying to find their stride. Good to see that there weren’t any injury concerns for Wentz. I thought they had fixed the downplaying to inferior opponents problem, until week 18 rolled around. Wentz rebounded from his awful 2020, but as I’ve said several times, he doesn’t have what it takes to win three playoff games in a row, and in 2021 he didn’t even have what it took to make the playoffs. Let this be a lesson: don’t go cheap at quarterback when you have a Super Bowl roster at all the other positions. The Colts had every opportunity to land Matt Stafford last offseason, but didn’t want to give up the necessary capital, so instead they went with Wentz. This team led the league in pro bowlers, led the league in all-pro selections, had by far the best running back in the league, and missed the playoffs. Moral of the story is get a top 12 quarterback first and worry about the rest afterwards.
3. Texans (5-12): Deshaun Watson is sadly going to be starting for the Texans this season. The majority of their losses in 2020 were close, they were better than their record would indicate. With no cap room and no draft picks until the third round, they didn't improve much in the offseason. The defense is still awful.
Hey, no Watson! Hopefully it stays that way next year. I had a feeling that they wouldn’t be as bad as most expected, and they weren’t. Davis Mills has a real shot to succeed in the league, which would be a great story.
4. Jaguars (4-13) Below average offensive line, rookie quarterback, and first year head coach. They do have decent RBs and WRs. They'll be exciting for the first few games, but everyone will soon realize that they're not very good. That being said I do expect Trevor Lawrence to have a decent rookie season.
They were exciting for about a quarter. Lawrence had a bad rookie season. Urban Meyer STINKS. On to year 3 of the rebuild, they probably won’t be competitive next year either, but I’m not giving up on Lawrence anytime soon.
1. Chiefs (15-2): Their offense is ridiculous and the addition of Orlando Brown should make it one level higher still than last season. They are the best two minute drill team ever, other than perhaps the '07 Patriots. Mahomes will put up MVP stats yet again. One thing they had issues with last season was, oddly, red zone offense.
It took them until week 10 to be the team I expected them to be, but they got there. Mahomes has had the worst season of his career. Mahomes has been great once again. They’ve got some red zone issues for the second year in a row, which is puzzling, but they move the ball so well that it doesn’t matter most of the time.
2. Chargers (9-8): I think they will struggle at the beginning of the season with a first year head coach, a brand new offensive line, and a heavily frontloaded schedule. But they'll pick it up later on in the season. Justin Herbert will have a great year, but the pressure on him will increase during the offseason, with no playoff appearences.
The timeline was the opposite of what I expected - they started 4-1 and were a .500 team afterwards. Herbert indeed had a great year, but with no playoff appearances, he, Staley, and this team will enter next season under a huge amount of pressure. My way-too-early bold prediction is that Staley will be canned if they don’t make it past the wild card in 2022-23.
3. Broncos (6-11): I hope they start Drew Lock rather than Teddy Bridgewater because Bridgewater is a ticket straight to 6 wins without fail, whereas with Lock they will at least see once and for all whether or not he has a future as a starter. Their receivers, tight ends, and running backs are pretty good (so long as they don't have to play quarterback 
). Defense is a far cry from the No Fly Zone, to say the least.
It ended up being 7 wins instead of 6. Bridgewater was slightly better than I expected, but not great by any means. Lock is not the guy. I just laughed at my own joke there.
4. Raiders (5-12): They don't have anybody or any group of players that will go out and win the team the game. There are questions about the head coach. Their offensive line was gutted. They're always bad in November and December. Really there's not too much to like about this team, aside from their stadium I guess.
This season has proven that Derek Carr is that guy, someone who will go out and win the team the game. He did that on numerous occasions this year. Similar to the Steelers, there were a lot of moments that seemed like season-killers (though those moments for the Raiders were mostly off the field), but they bounced back every time, which speaks to good leadership and good culture. They certainly fell off after their 3-0 and 5-2 start, but it wasn’t the full-blown collapse that the 2019 and 2020 Raiders underwent, as they managed to pull their season from the rubble with five huge wins down the stretch.
AFC Playoffs
1. Chiefs
2. Bills
3. Ravens
4. Titans
5. Browns
6. Steelers
7. Dolphins
Wild Card
Bills beat Dolphins - As I mentioned, the Dolphins had trouble with the Bills last season
Steelers beat Ravens - Steelers are the more complete team, and that's important in the playoffs
Browns beat Titans - Titans defense was really bad against the Browns last season
Divisional
Chiefs beat Steelers - Chiefs offense coming off a bye will be too much for even the Steelers defense to handle
Browns beat Bills - Browns running game will power through the Bills defense
AFC Championship
Chiefs beat Browns - the only reason why the divisional round game last season wasn't a blowout was the Mahomes injury
AFC offensive player of the year: Patrick Mahomes
AFC defensive player of the year: TJ Watt
AFC offensive rookie of the year: Trevor Lawrence
AFC defensive rookie of the year: Patrick Surtain
Fired coaches: Zac Taylor (CIN), Vic Fangio (DEN), Jon Gruden (LV)
4/7 playoff teams, 3/4 division winners. None of the AFC teams I had making the playoffs finished worse than 8-9. No such award exists, but one could make a solid argument for Mahomes being the AFC OPOY. Watt would be the obvious AFC DPOY. Chase, not Lawrence, for AFC ROTY. Didn't follow the Broncos much, but according to oddsmakers Surtain is second favorite for DROY after Parsons, so there ya go. Fangio out, Gruden out, Taylor rightfully still employed.
