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NFL (2024 Season)

Started by webny99, February 04, 2020, 02:35:53 PM

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JayhawkCO

And Cam Newton released.  Surprising.  Not surprising he didn't win the job over Mac Jones, but there is some speculation that the team wasn't happy with his approach to the Covid protocols, so just released him instead of possibly needing to play him and having him be ineligible.

Chris


webny99

... and with that, Josh Allen is officially the oldest QB in the AFC East at 25 years old.  :-o




thspfc

While he was a free agent last offseason, Cam said that he would only sign with a team if he had a chance to compete for the starting job, or something along those lines. So I guess it's not totally out of left field that the Patriots released him after making the decision that Jones is going to start right away. I'm guessing it was a mutual decision between Cam and the Patriots, as Cam doesn't want to be a backup, and the Patriots don't need him at this point. My question is, where does Cam think he can be a starter? Denver, Indianapolis, and Carolina are the only teams where I think he would even have a chance (Indianapolis because of Wentz's ongoing foot injury - Wentz is better than Cam). I think he'll reluctantly sign with somebody in the coming weeks upon realizing that he won't be a starter, and he'll bounce around with a few different teams before retiring for good.

But barring a turnaround for the ages, looks like the days of Supercam are over. His career was definitely not a failure, even by #1 pick standards - an MVP award, four playoff appearances, three division titles, a Super Bowl appearence, and he'll go down as one of the best dual-threat QBs ever. Though you have to wonder what could have been if it weren't for the injuries.

On the other hand, this feels like a near-complete reboot for the Patriots, with all of the notable players from the Brady era gone. Last season was them making an attempt to salvage the 2018 Super Bowl team that broke to pieces when Brady left. It didn't work, and now they have pretty much a brand new roster. I still don't think they're going to make the playoffs this year, but we'll see if they return to Super Bowl contention somewhere down the line. It won't be easy with the Bills and Dolphins looking like they will be consistent playoff teams for the next 5-10 years.

NWI_Irish96

BUF   13   4   MIA   10   7   NE   10   7   NYJ   3   14
BAL   11   6   CLE   11   6   PIT   9   8   CIN   3   14
TEN   11   6   IND   9   8   JAX   7   10   HOU   2   15
KC   13   4   LAC   12   5   DEN   8   9   LV   7   10

NYG   9   8   DAL   8   9   WAS   8   9   PHI   7   10
GB   11   6   CHI   8   9   MIN   7   10   DET   4   13
TB   13   4   NO   6   11   ATL   6   11   CAR   4   13
LAR   13   4   SEA   12   5   SF   11   6   ARI   6   11

(2) KC over (7) MIA, (6) CLE over (3) BAL, (5) LAC over (4) TEN
(2) LAR over (7) CHI, (6) SF over (3) GB, (5) SEA over (4) NYG

(1) BUF over (6) CLE, (5) LAC over (2) KC
(1) TB over (6) SF, (2) LAR over (5) SEA

(1) BUF over (5) LAC
(2) LAR over (1) TB

Buffalo finally wins their first Super Bowl in 5 attempts by completing the LA double in LA.
Indiana: counties 100%, highways 100%
Illinois: counties 100%, highways 61%
Michigan: counties 100%, highways 56%
Wisconsin: counties 86%, highways 23%

SectorZ

Quote from: webny99 on August 31, 2021, 11:03:35 AM
... and with that, Josh Allen is officially the oldest QB in the AFC East at 25 years old.  :-o

For a few days at least, until the Dolphins do something incredibly dumb and trade for Watson.

I'm going to miss Cam. If Mac wasn't around I was really interested to see the leap forward he could take this year, but clearly what happened in the past week pissed off Belichick so much that Cam went from being the announced starter to unemployed.

thspfc

Quote from: SectorZ on August 31, 2021, 12:07:05 PM
Quote from: webny99 on August 31, 2021, 11:03:35 AM
... and with that, Josh Allen is officially the oldest QB in the AFC East at 25 years old.  :-o

For a few days at least, until the Dolphins do something incredibly dumb and trade for Watson.

I'm going to miss Cam. If Mac wasn't around I was really interested to see the leap forward he could take this year, but clearly what happened in the past week pissed off Belichick so much that Cam went from being the announced starter to unemployed.
I'm sure that the Covid situation didn't help Cam's case to be the starter, but even if that fiasco hadn't gone down, he would still have been released. This is more about Cam wanting to be a starter somewhere, even if it's not New England, than it is about Covid.

JayhawkCO

Quote from: thspfc on August 31, 2021, 01:13:42 PM
Quote from: SectorZ on August 31, 2021, 12:07:05 PM
Quote from: webny99 on August 31, 2021, 11:03:35 AM
... and with that, Josh Allen is officially the oldest QB in the AFC East at 25 years old.  :-o

For a few days at least, until the Dolphins do something incredibly dumb and trade for Watson.

I'm going to miss Cam. If Mac wasn't around I was really interested to see the leap forward he could take this year, but clearly what happened in the past week pissed off Belichick so much that Cam went from being the announced starter to unemployed.
I'm sure that the Covid situation didn't help Cam's case to be the starter, but even if that fiasco hadn't gone down, he would still have been released. This is more about Cam wanting to be a starter somewhere, even if it's not New England, than it is about Covid.

I don't want to turn this into the Covid thread, but as it relates to football, there are plenty of news bites out there that if you're not a star and you're unvaccinated, you're going to have a tough time latching on with a team.  There are too many comparable players below the star level, that the teams might as well sign the ones that don't have the potential to have as many missed games.

In this case specifically, with all the injuries is Cam that much better than Hoyer? Probably not, hence why he got cut.

Chris

Alps

It may surprise you, but I'd love to see the Jets sign Cam. Or some other veteran presence at QB to help balance Zach.

thspfc

Quote from: jayhawkco on August 31, 2021, 01:16:37 PM
Quote from: thspfc on August 31, 2021, 01:13:42 PM
Quote from: SectorZ on August 31, 2021, 12:07:05 PM
Quote from: webny99 on August 31, 2021, 11:03:35 AM
... and with that, Josh Allen is officially the oldest QB in the AFC East at 25 years old.  :-o

For a few days at least, until the Dolphins do something incredibly dumb and trade for Watson.

I'm going to miss Cam. If Mac wasn't around I was really interested to see the leap forward he could take this year, but clearly what happened in the past week pissed off Belichick so much that Cam went from being the announced starter to unemployed.
I'm sure that the Covid situation didn't help Cam's case to be the starter, but even if that fiasco hadn't gone down, he would still have been released. This is more about Cam wanting to be a starter somewhere, even if it's not New England, than it is about Covid.

I don't want to turn this into the Covid thread, but as it relates to football, there are plenty of news bites out there that if you're not a star and you're unvaccinated, you're going to have a tough time latching on with a team.  There are too many comparable players below the star level, that the teams might as well sign the ones that don't have the potential to have as many missed games.

In this case specifically, with all the injuries is Cam that much better than Hoyer? Probably not, hence why he got cut.

Chris
Aaand, Hoyer just got cut.

JayhawkCO

Quote from: thspfc on September 01, 2021, 07:37:40 AM
Aaand, Hoyer just got cut.

Yeah, not sure what they're doing exactly.  I'm guessing that's an administrative thing and they'll resign him soon.  That's what apparently the Vikings are doing with Everson Griffin.

Or maybe they're just like the Lions who cut all of their kickers.

Chris

wanderer2575

Good news, Lions fans sheeple!  Jared Goff expects they will win the NFC North this year.

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2021/08/30/detroit-lions-qb-jared-goff-we-expect-win-nfc-north/5654022001/

Quote
"Of course, it's a new regime, new staff, they weren't very good last year.  It's a whole new thing and I understand it," Goff said.  "But just like every other team in this league, there's expectations, and I don't know what the stat is, but every year there's new teams in the playoff.  Every year there's teams that were in the playoffs last year that aren't and why not us? Why can't we be that one that wasn't in last year that is this year?"

Alps

Quote from: jayhawkco on September 01, 2021, 09:14:39 AM
Quote from: thspfc on September 01, 2021, 07:37:40 AM
Aaand, Hoyer just got cut.

Yeah, not sure what they're doing exactly.  I'm guessing that's an administrative thing and they'll resign him soon.  That's what apparently the Vikings are doing with Everson Griffin.

Or maybe they're just like the Lions who cut all of their kickers.

Chris
Yeah they re-signed him apparently.

webny99

Well, this is it - the next time we have a weekend with no NFL action, we'll know the Super Bowl LVI matchup!  :)

webny99


webny99

#1064
Taking a closer look at which teams have the best playoff odds according to FiveThirtyEight...

AFC
Tier 1 (playoff odds >50%)
1 Chiefs
2 Bills
3 Ravens
4 Titans
5 Browns
6 Colts
Tier 2 (50% > playoff odds > 30%)
7 Dolphins
8 Chargers
9 Patriots
10 Broncos
11 Steelers
Tier 3 (playoff odds <30%)
12 Raiders
13 Bengals
14 Jaguars
15 Jets
16 Texans


NFC
Tier 1 (playoff odds >50%)
1 Bucs
2 Packers
3 Rams
4 Cowboys
5 49ers
6 Seahawks
Tier 2 (50% > playoff odds > 30%)
7 Saints
8 Washington
9 Vikings
10 Cardinals
11 Falcons
Tier 3 (playoff odds <30%)
12 Giants
13 Bears
14 Panthers
15 Eagles
16 Lions

With 14 playoff spots, there's room for all of Tier 1 to make the playoffs plus one more team from each conference - presumably from Tier 2, but there's always surprises. So with that said, my prediction is is that there will be at least one Tier 1 team that misses the playoffs and at least one Tier 3 team that makes the playoffs.

thspfc

Quote from: webny99 on September 08, 2021, 06:42:20 PM
Taking a closer look at which teams have the best playoff odds according to FiveThirtyEight...

AFC
Tier 1 (playoff odds >50%)
1 Chiefs
2 Bills
3 Ravens
4 Titans
5 Browns
6 Colts
Tier 2 (50% > playoff odds > 30%)
7 Dolphins
8 Chargers
9 Patriots
10 Broncos
11 Steelers
Tier 3 (playoff odds <30%)
12 Raiders
13 Bengals
14 Jaguars
15 Jets
16 Texans
What is with the Steelers disrespect? I in terms of my feelings I really don't like the Steelers, but how could you possibly think that they have worse odds to make the playoffs than the freaking Broncos, who have 6-10 himself playing quarterback and a really bad secondary? (Interestingly, Bridgewater has never actually gone 6-10, but his play is such that you would expect that every year). The Steelers have the best pass rush in the league, and a young and promising 1-2-3 punch of WRs that could very well be the best in the league by the end of the season. Their biggest weakness last year was running the ball, and they just drafted a running back from Alabama in the first round. Pass blocking is questionable but poor pass blocking isn't a season killer, unless it leads to your QB getting hurt - and the Steelers were one game away from making the playoffs anyways in 2019 when Roethlisberger was out. And, oh, Roethlisberger, the guy who people think is going to be Nathan Peterman all of a sudden. At the very least he'll be better than Drew Brees was last season.

Quote
NFC
Tier 1 (playoff odds >50%)
1 Bucs
2 Packers
3 Rams
4 Cowboys
5 49ers
6 Seahawks
Tier 2 (50% > playoff odds > 30%)
7 Saints
8 Washington
9 Vikings
10 Cardinals
11 Falcons
Tier 3 (playoff odds <30%)
12 Giants
13 Bears
14 Panthers
15 Eagles
16 Lions
Everyone knows what the definition of insanity is, that's how I feel when it comes to the 49ers. If you assume that nobody is going to injure even a hangnail all season, they MIGHT be like the 7th best team in the conference. Don't talk to me about how they were in the Super Bowl in 2019 - 1), they've lost several key pieces from that team, and 2), the NFC was terrible in 2019. Now you factor in how the Rams, Buccaneers, Packers, Seahawks, Cardinals, etc. have improved in that timeframe. So if the Niners went the entire year without a single injury, they would be like 7th. But, they have been one of the three most injured teams in the league for 3 of the last 4 seasons. That is not bad luck, that is a problem. It's anyone's guess as to whose fault it is. But it's not by chance.

I also don't think the Cowboys should be above the Seahawks but the NFC East is definitely terrible.

Quote
With 14 playoff spots, there's room for all of Tier 1 to make the playoffs plus one more team from each conference - presumably from Tier 2, but there's always surprises. So with that said, my prediction is is that there will be at least one Tier 1 team that misses the playoffs and at least one Tier 3 team that makes the playoffs.
Colts and 49ers will miss the playoffs. I don't think any of Tier 3 will make the playoffs, but if I had to bet on one of them it would be the Giants.

hotdogPi

Quote from: thspfc on September 08, 2021, 09:08:40 PM
What is with the Steelers disrespect? I in terms of my feelings I really don't like the Steelers, but how could you possibly think that they have worse odds to make the playoffs than the freaking Broncos, who have 6-10 himself playing quarterback and a really bad secondary?

This isn't his own list.
Clinched, minus I-93 (I'm missing a few miles and my file is incorrect)

Traveled, plus US 13, 44, and 50, and several state routes

I will be in Burlington VT for the eclipse.

webny99

#1067
Quote from: 1 on September 08, 2021, 09:31:43 PM
Quote from: thspfc on September 08, 2021, 09:08:40 PM
What is with the Steelers disrespect? I in terms of my feelings I really don't like the Steelers, but how could you possibly think that they have worse odds to make the playoffs than the freaking Broncos, who have 6-10 himself playing quarterback and a really bad secondary?

This isn't his own list.

Correct. It's straight from the FiveThirtyEight predictions, linked to above. I will note that I was initially surprised by the Steelers relatively low playoff odds (37%). But then you factor in that they're in a tough division, with the league's toughest schedule thanks to having to play the Chiefs, Bills, and Titans. That's a couple more potential losses added to an already tough schedule. Also keep in mind that they kind of lucked their way to a bunch of wins early last year, and then lost five of their last six games to end the season. They never looked like a great team, even when they were 11-0, so they're going to have to be a lot better than they were last year to finish above .500. While I think they could get to 10 wins, trying to find those 10 on their schedule is harder than it looks. 8-9 or 7-10 might be just as likely, and Mike Tomlin is way overdue for a losing record.



Quote from: thspfc on September 08, 2021, 09:08:40 PM
Everyone knows what the definition of insanity is, that's how I feel when it comes to the 49ers. If you assume that nobody is going to injure even a hangnail all season, they MIGHT be like the 7th best team in the conference. Don't talk to me about how they were in the Super Bowl in 2019 - 1), they've lost several key pieces from that team, and 2), the NFC was terrible in 2019. Now you factor in how the Rams, Buccaneers, Packers, Seahawks, Cardinals, etc. have improved in that timeframe. So if the Niners went the entire year without a single injury, they would be like 7th. But, they have been one of the three most injured teams in the league for 3 of the last 4 seasons. That is not bad luck, that is a problem. It's anyone's guess as to whose fault it is. But it's not by chance.

Not to go down this rabbit hole again, but I don't think there's much evidence that their injuries are more than just bad luck. Jimmy G is very injury-prone, and that's caused a lot of week-to-week uncertainty at QB, but that shouldn't matter as much now that they have Trey Lance in waiting. I also think a lot of the 49ers hype is founded on people's belief in Kyle Shanahan, but given that he's now had three losing seasons and only one winning season, he needs to win this year or his legitimacy will start to be questioned. It's a very solid team that should be able to win now, and if they can't, it's on the coaching staff IMO.

With that said, I can see the case for putting the 49ers in the top 5 in the NFC. They're better than the Cardinals, they've won four straight against the Rams (haven't lost to the Rams since 2018, their Super Bowl season), and they're perennially a pretty even match with the Seahawks. It's not unthinkable at all that they could win that division. (FiveThirtyEight's NFC West division odds are Rams 32%, 49ers 28%, Seahawks 27%, Cardinals 13%, which seems about right.)



Quote from: thspfc on September 08, 2021, 09:08:40 PM
I also don't think the Cowboys should be above the Seahawks but the NFC East is definitely terrible.

I ranked 1-4 as the division winners, so this would be the hypothetical seeding. Once you get past 4, all other teams are just ranked by straight playoff odds.


Henry

Tonight, the season opens with the Super Bowl champion Buccaneers hosting Dallas. Later on, my Bears will get the primetime spotlight when they travel to L.A. to take on the Rams.
Go Cubs Go! Go Cubs Go! Hey Chicago, what do you say? The Cubs are gonna win today!

thspfc

#1069
Quote from: 1 on September 08, 2021, 09:31:43 PM
Quote from: thspfc on September 08, 2021, 09:08:40 PM
What is with the Steelers disrespect? I in terms of my feelings I really don't like the Steelers, but how could you possibly think that they have worse odds to make the playoffs than the freaking Broncos, who have 6-10 himself playing quarterback and a really bad secondary?

This isn't his own list.
Right. Where in that post did I mention webny99 personally?

thspfc

Quote from: webny99 on September 08, 2021, 10:27:58 PM
Quote from: 1 on September 08, 2021, 09:31:43 PM
Quote from: thspfc on September 08, 2021, 09:08:40 PM
What is with the Steelers disrespect? I in terms of my feelings I really don't like the Steelers, but how could you possibly think that they have worse odds to make the playoffs than the freaking Broncos, who have 6-10 himself playing quarterback and a really bad secondary?

This isn't his own list.

Correct. It's straight from the FiveThirtyEight predictions, linked to above. I will note that I was initially surprised by the Steelers relatively low playoff odds (37%). But then you factor in that they're in a tough division, with the league's toughest schedule thanks to having to play the Chiefs, Bills, and Titans. That's a couple more potential losses added to an already tough schedule. Also keep in mind that they kind of lucked their way to a bunch of wins early last year, and then lost five of their last six games to end the season. They never looked like a great team, even when they were 11-0, so they're going to have to be a lot better than they were last year to finish above .500. While I think they could get to 10 wins, trying to find those 10 on their schedule is harder than it looks. 8-9 or 7-10 might be just as likely, and Mike Tomlin is way overdue for a losing record.

So a team that went 12-4 is going to need to be way better than the 12-4 team to finish 9-8? And the Steelers didn't regress much at all. They probably aren't going 13-4 but they will be over .500.

And the point about Tomlin being "due"  for a losing record? What? I guess Belichick and the Patriots or Brady and the Buccaneers are "due"  for the worst record in the league then?  :-D

webny99

Quote from: thspfc on September 09, 2021, 12:28:50 PM
Quote from: webny99 on September 08, 2021, 10:27:58 PM
Also keep in mind that they kind of lucked their way to a bunch of wins early last year, and then lost five of their last six games to end the season. They never looked like a great team, even when they were 11-0, so they're going to have to be a lot better than they were last year to finish above .500. While I think they could get to 10 wins, trying to find those 10 on their schedule is harder than it looks. 8-9 or 7-10 might be just as likely, and Mike Tomlin is way overdue for a losing record.

So a team that went 12-4 is going to need to be way better than the 12-4 team to finish 9-8? And the Steelers didn't regress much at all. They probably aren't going 13-4 but they will be over .500.

Yes, I do think they need to be better to finish above .500 given their schedule and the fact that their 12-4 record last year was not indicative of a 12-4 team. If not for a missed Titans field goal, an unbelievable collapse by the Colts, and the Covid game against the Ravens that they nearly lost without Lamar on the field, they're 9-7 and out of the playoffs.


Quote from: thspfc on September 09, 2021, 12:28:50 PM
And the point about Tomlin being "due"  for a losing record? What? I guess Belichick and the Patriots or Brady and the Buccaneers are "due"  for the worst record in the league then?  :-D

Not the worst record in the league, just a losing record. It's not comparable to Brady/Belichick because they never even flirted with .500. They never had less than 10 wins from 2003 to 2019. Meanwhile, Tomlin has three 8-8 seasons, a 9-7 season, and a 9-6-1 season. Their luck in seasons where they are about average (which I think they will be this season) isn't going to last forever and I wouldn't be surprised if they end up below .500. I think 8-9 or 7-10 is a very realistic outcome.

webny99

#1072
Quote from: thspfc on September 09, 2021, 12:22:55 PM
Quote from: 1 on September 08, 2021, 09:31:43 PM
Quote from: thspfc on September 08, 2021, 09:08:40 PM
I really don't like the Steelers, but how could you possibly think that they have worse odds to make the playoffs than the freaking Broncos ...

This isn't his own list.
Right. Where in that post did I mention webny99 personally?

Well, forgive us for assuming it was addressed to me...

Scott5114

Quote from: thspfc on September 08, 2021, 09:08:40 PM
Quote from: webny99 on September 08, 2021, 06:42:20 PM
Taking a closer look at which teams have the best playoff odds according to FiveThirtyEight...
What is with the Steelers disrespect? I in terms of my feelings I really don't like the Steelers, but how could you possibly think that they have worse odds to make the playoffs than the freaking Broncos, who have 6-10 himself playing quarterback and a really bad secondary?

Assuming that FiveThirtyEight is doing what they normally do here, "disrespect", "feelings", and "thinking" aren't actually happening–the FiveThirtyEight MO is to build a math model that makes rankings like this and then dump data into it and publish the results. You can question the assumptions their model makes, but Nate Silver isn't ranking the Steelers any certain way because he personally thinks they suck.
uncontrollable freak sardine salad chef

JayhawkCO

Ravens had two players back to back tear ACLs (likely).  Marcus Peters and Gus Edwards.  Crappy luck.

Chris



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