Random offseason question: How many teams should/should not expect to contend for a playoff spot this season?
In the AFC, I think basically the entire conference views themselves as a playoff contender. The four biggest exceptions IMO:
-Steelers. I know they're always in the mix but I think this could be the year they aren't. Trubisky isn't going to be great and even if Pickett is OK, they're not going to get as lucky as they did last year. Big Ben was not good last year, but he made key plays to win a bunch of close games and that was largely attributable to his years of experience. You can't expect the same from Trubisky or a rookie.
-Jets. I think they have the roster and potential upside of a playoff team, but really the only thing that matters is Wilson's development. If his play improves significantly, 8-9 wins is still a success.
-Jaguars. Likely not a playoff team, but could certainly win 7-8 games. I'm not buying the Titans, and the Jaguars seem to have the Colts' number lately, so it wouldn't be shocking to find them in the mix for the division in December.
-Texans. Not too much explanation needed here. They're considerably worse roster-wise than all of the other teams in their division and would be the only truly shocking playoff team in the entire AFC.
In the NFC, it gets more interesting as to whether certain teams are contending or rebuilding.
I think the entire NFC West expects to have a shot at the playoffs. The Seahawks could definitely make it with competent QB play - which is obviously a giant question mark. Cardinals are obviously expecting to contend but I could see them finishing with a losing record.
Vikings are a definite yes to contend for a playoff spot. Lions are also yes IMO - I could see 8-9 wins with competent play from Goff given the improved roster. And I think the entire NFC East is a yes - Commanders and especially Giants might be a stretch, but it wouldn't be crazy if either of them made the wild card. And the NFC South, Saints are obviously expecting to make the playoffs, Panthers are not in the playoff mix with their current QB situation but the roster isn't terrible, so yes if they get Baker Mayfield or Jimmy G.
That leaves the Falcons and Bears as the only true non-contending teams in the NFC, plus the Texans in the AFC. So 29 of 32 teams could make the playoffs and it wouldn't be totally shocking - that seems like more than any other year I can remember.