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NFL (2024 Season)

Started by webny99, February 04, 2020, 02:35:53 PM

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thspfc

#2975
Man, I think you guys are drinking the kool-aid.

Houston was 32nd in total offense and 31st in total defense last year. I don't feel like going through a bunch of stats from past seasons, but I'm guessing a team being bottom 2 on both sides of the ball hardly ever happens. There isn't anything about Lovie Smith that makes me think he's going to make any radical improvements. Two of their four wins were against the Jags, who, to me, have the better roster by quite a bit entering this season and were ravaged by their own head coach last year.

I like Mills but there's a lot more to it than that.


webny99

The Texans also beat the Chargers last year and looked pretty good while doing so. Does that mean they're going to be a good team this year? Absolutely not. But they've also kind of sold out to not be completely terrible, by signing a lot of serviceable veterans etc.. Sort of like Seattle, it seems like they're trying to be a 6-8 win team that's not the laughingstock of the league, and could absolutely be successful doing so.

thspfc

#2977
Watson ends up with an 11 game suspension. Still less than I think it should be, but it's enough to put a major dent into the Browns season. The 5 games that he'll now be missing are:

@ Ravens
Bengals
@ Dolphins
@ Bills
Buccaneers

Ouch. I'm changing my predictions a little bit, subtracting two wins for the Browns and adding one each for the Ravens and Bills.

jgb191

#2978
I've said this before:  My Texans exceeded all expectations in 2021 by matching the same number of wins as the 2020 season.  For 2021, I remember the unanimous agreement among all sports fan's prediction that the Texans were going to be winless (0-17).  The four wins should have been more than enough to keep David Culley's job safe -- indeed consideration for Coach of the Year; the players loved playing for him, and a lot of fans (myself included) began to believe in him.  I'm confident Davis Mills will keep improving under our new OC, and the Texans will exceed last year's win total.  Houston can win at least two division games plus two games vs the NFC "Least", plus an additional two games apart from those, bringing the anticipated 2022 record to six wins and 11 losses.  Not low enough to have the top pick next year, but not high enough to challenge for a playoff spot.  And yes I do have high hopes that one of those Texans win can be against Cleveland in Deshaun's Browns debut.
We're so far south that we're not even considered "The South"

JayhawkCO

Quote from: thspfc on August 18, 2022, 08:08:38 PM
Watson ends up with an 11 game suspension. Still less than I think it should be, but it's enough to put a major dent into the Browns season. The 5 games that he'll now be missing are:

@ Ravens
Bengals
@ Dolphins
@ Bills
Buccaneers

Ouch. I'm changing my predictions a little bit, subtracting two wins for the Browns and adding one each for the Ravens and Bills.

I know we disagree on the Browns, but I'm quite surprised you thought they could win at Buffalo. Ravens maybe I could have seen, but not against arguably the most complete team in the league.

thspfc

Quote from: JayhawkCO on August 18, 2022, 10:45:24 PM
Quote from: thspfc on August 18, 2022, 08:08:38 PM
Watson ends up with an 11 game suspension. Still less than I think it should be, but it's enough to put a major dent into the Browns season. The 5 games that he'll now be missing are:

@ Ravens
Bengals
@ Dolphins
@ Bills
Buccaneers

Ouch. I'm changing my predictions a little bit, subtracting two wins for the Browns and adding one each for the Ravens and Bills.

I know we disagree on the Browns, but I'm quite surprised you thought they could win at Buffalo. Ravens maybe I could have seen, but not against arguably the most complete team in the league.
I wasn't necessarily picking the games individually. Trying to pick November games in August is useless. Just had to add two wins to other teams, and it was logical to add them to teams that play the Browns during that stretch.

thspfc

Quote from: jgb191 on August 18, 2022, 09:16:32 PM
For 2021, I remember the unanimous agreement among all sports fan's prediction that the Texans were going to be winless (0-17).
Absolutely not true, and anyone who seriously predicts that an NFL team is going 0-17 is, uh, not very smart.

Quote
The four wins should have been more than enough to keep David Culley's job safe -- indeed consideration for Coach of the Year;
Lol

Quote
two games vs the NFC "Least"
The East will not be the worst NFC division this year. Last year it was better than the North and barely behind the South (and the east had two playoff teams to the south's one).

JayhawkCO

Quote from: thspfc on August 19, 2022, 12:09:17 PM
The East will not be the worst NFC division this year. Last year it was better than the North and barely behind the South (and the east had two playoff teams to the south's one).

The South should easily be the worst NFC division this year if you ask me.

jgb191

The Panthers have increased their chances of winning their first weekend when they elected Baker Mayfield to start against his former "home" the Cleveland Browns.  Baker will definitely have a chip on his shoulder.

Note: The word 'home' was in quotes in the above statement in reference to the home he used to take care of in his commercials.  I wish At Home would follow him to Charlotte.

Speaking of the Cleveland Browns:  My gut feeling tells me that Deshaun's suspension was chosen by the league to be 11 games due to the Deshaun's debut as a Browns against his former team; good time for my Texans to show Deshaun what he's been missing out on since he quit on the team.
We're so far south that we're not even considered "The South"

webny99

Meanwhile I found it very odd that Watson will return against the Texans. It will make for an awkward return and I would have thought the league would want to avoid that.

NWI_Irish96

Quote from: webny99 on August 23, 2022, 08:26:18 AM
Meanwhile I found it very odd that Watson will return against the Texans. It will make for an awkward return and I would have thought the league would want to avoid that.

An multi-year NFL contract requires being rostered for 6 games in order to move to the next year, so that's why Watson agreed to an 11 game suspension but would fight anything longer. That Houston is the 12th game is coincidental to the financial reality.
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Ted$8roadFan

Quote from: NWI_Irish96 on August 23, 2022, 08:34:52 AM
Quote from: webny99 on August 23, 2022, 08:26:18 AM
Meanwhile I found it very odd that Watson will return against the Texans. It will make for an awkward return and I would have thought the league would want to avoid that.

An multi-year NFL contract requires being rostered for 6 games in order to move to the next year, so that's why Watson agreed to an 11 game suspension but would fight anything longer. That Houston is the 12th game is coincidental to the financial reality.

The real question will be how rusty Watson will be, having played his last game nearly 24 months ago.

jgb191

#2987
Speaking of Deshaun's debut with the Browns and return to the NRG/Reliant Stadium, it there any way the league could flex that game into a prime time slot?  Either move them to the second time slot (labeling it "America's Game of the Week") or the evening time slot on SNF or MNF?  Replace the Colts/Cowboys game with Browns/Texans on Sunday Night would be great for ratings I would like to believe.
We're so far south that we're not even considered "The South"

thspfc

Quote from: jgb191 on August 23, 2022, 11:54:43 AM
Replace the Colts/Cowboys game with Browns/Texans on Sunday Night would be great for ratings I would like to believe.
Uh, no. Watson's return or not, Colts/Cowboys would beat Browns/Texans in ratings. Two decent teams, one of which has the largest following in the league, as opposed to one decent team and one awful team, neither of which have huge fanbases.

JayhawkCO

Quote from: thspfc on August 23, 2022, 01:08:24 PM
Quote from: jgb191 on August 23, 2022, 11:54:43 AM
Replace the Colts/Cowboys game with Browns/Texans on Sunday Night would be great for ratings I would like to believe.
Uh, no. Watson's return or not, Colts/Cowboys would beat Browns/Texans in ratings. Two decent teams, one of which has the largest following in the league, as opposed to one decent team and one awful team, neither of which have huge fanbases.

thspfc and I agree on something!  :)

webny99

Quote from: JayhawkCO on August 23, 2022, 01:11:26 PM
Quote from: thspfc on August 23, 2022, 01:08:24 PM
Quote from: jgb191 on August 23, 2022, 11:54:43 AM
Replace the Colts/Cowboys game with Browns/Texans on Sunday Night would be great for ratings I would like to believe.
Uh, no. Watson's return or not, Colts/Cowboys would beat Browns/Texans in ratings. Two decent teams, one of which has the largest following in the league, as opposed to one decent team and one awful team, neither of which have huge fanbases.

thspfc and I agree on something!  :)

One thing no one can object to about the Cowboys is that no matter how good or bad they are, they will get huge ratings. And there's invariably a Colts hype train every year, this year more than ever because of Matty Ice.

SectorZ

Quote from: thspfc on August 23, 2022, 01:08:24 PM
Quote from: jgb191 on August 23, 2022, 11:54:43 AM
Replace the Colts/Cowboys game with Browns/Texans on Sunday Night would be great for ratings I would like to believe.
Uh, no. Watson's return or not, Colts/Cowboys would beat Browns/Texans in ratings. Two decent teams, one of which has the largest following in the league, as opposed to one decent team and one awful team, neither of which have huge fanbases.

I don't think the NFL wants to showcase Watson in his week 1 either. That would come across as incredibly tone deaf.

ethanhopkin14

Quote from: SectorZ on August 23, 2022, 03:42:18 PM
Quote from: thspfc on August 23, 2022, 01:08:24 PM
Quote from: jgb191 on August 23, 2022, 11:54:43 AM
Replace the Colts/Cowboys game with Browns/Texans on Sunday Night would be great for ratings I would like to believe.
Uh, no. Watson's return or not, Colts/Cowboys would beat Browns/Texans in ratings. Two decent teams, one of which has the largest following in the league, as opposed to one decent team and one awful team, neither of which have huge fanbases.

I don't think the NFL wants to showcase Watson in his week 1 either. That would come across as incredibly tone deaf.


Yeah but, I don't think it's coincidence his suspension is up for the Browns/Texans game.  I think when the sides were negotiating the length of the extended suspension, that game was chose on purpose.  I don't put it past the NFL to make money/gain ratings from this mess. 

NWI_Irish96

Quote from: ethanhopkin14 on August 23, 2022, 06:17:09 PM
Quote from: SectorZ on August 23, 2022, 03:42:18 PM
Quote from: thspfc on August 23, 2022, 01:08:24 PM
Quote from: jgb191 on August 23, 2022, 11:54:43 AM
Replace the Colts/Cowboys game with Browns/Texans on Sunday Night would be great for ratings I would like to believe.
Uh, no. Watson's return or not, Colts/Cowboys would beat Browns/Texans in ratings. Two decent teams, one of which has the largest following in the league, as opposed to one decent team and one awful team, neither of which have huge fanbases.

I don't think the NFL wants to showcase Watson in his week 1 either. That would come across as incredibly tone deaf.


Yeah but, I don't think it's coincidence his suspension is up for the Browns/Texans game.  I think when the sides were negotiating the length of the extended suspension, that game was chose on purpose.  I don't put it past the NFL to make money/gain ratings from this mess. 

As I noted upthread, it was chosen on purpose but nothing to do with the Texans. Watson needs to be on the roster for 6 games for his salary increase for the next season to kick in, so 11 games was the longest suspension that he wouldn't fight.
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Illinois: counties 100%, highways 61%
Michigan: counties 100%, highways 56%
Wisconsin: counties 86%, highways 23%

ethanhopkin14

Quote from: NWI_Irish96 on August 23, 2022, 06:21:38 PM
Quote from: ethanhopkin14 on August 23, 2022, 06:17:09 PM
Quote from: SectorZ on August 23, 2022, 03:42:18 PM
Quote from: thspfc on August 23, 2022, 01:08:24 PM
Quote from: jgb191 on August 23, 2022, 11:54:43 AM
Replace the Colts/Cowboys game with Browns/Texans on Sunday Night would be great for ratings I would like to believe.
Uh, no. Watson's return or not, Colts/Cowboys would beat Browns/Texans in ratings. Two decent teams, one of which has the largest following in the league, as opposed to one decent team and one awful team, neither of which have huge fanbases.

I don't think the NFL wants to showcase Watson in his week 1 either. That would come across as incredibly tone deaf.


Yeah but, I don't think it's coincidence his suspension is up for the Browns/Texans game.  I think when the sides were negotiating the length of the extended suspension, that game was chose on purpose.  I don't put it past the NFL to make money/gain ratings from this mess. 

As I noted upthread, it was chosen on purpose but nothing to do with the Texans. Watson needs to be on the roster for 6 games for his salary increase for the next season to kick in, so 11 games was the longest suspension that he wouldn't fight.

I still don't think it's 100 % all that and just a coincidence the Texans are playing. 

jemacedo9

I think that back in the Spring, the league figured there was a reasonable change it would be 11 games and scheduled that game that way on purpose.

webny99

Quote from: NWI_Irish96 on August 23, 2022, 06:21:38 PM
Quote from: ethanhopkin14 on August 23, 2022, 06:17:09 PM
Quote from: SectorZ on August 23, 2022, 03:42:18 PM
Quote from: thspfc on August 23, 2022, 01:08:24 PM
Quote from: jgb191 on August 23, 2022, 11:54:43 AM
Replace the Colts/Cowboys game with Browns/Texans on Sunday Night would be great for ratings I would like to believe.
Uh, no. Watson's return or not, Colts/Cowboys would beat Browns/Texans in ratings. Two decent teams, one of which has the largest following in the league, as opposed to one decent team and one awful team, neither of which have huge fanbases.

I don't think the NFL wants to showcase Watson in his week 1 either. That would come across as incredibly tone deaf.


Yeah but, I don't think it's coincidence his suspension is up for the Browns/Texans game.  I think when the sides were negotiating the length of the extended suspension, that game was chose on purpose.  I don't put it past the NFL to make money/gain ratings from this mess. 

As I noted upthread, it was chosen on purpose but nothing to do with the Texans. Watson needs to be on the roster for 6 games for his salary increase for the next season to kick in, so 11 games was the longest suspension that he wouldn't fight.

Learn something new every day I guess. That would actually make sense, I'm just surprised it wasn't mentioned in any of the reporting that I saw anywhere.

thspfc

Quote from: webny99 on August 23, 2022, 07:35:27 PM
Quote from: NWI_Irish96 on August 23, 2022, 06:21:38 PM
Quote from: ethanhopkin14 on August 23, 2022, 06:17:09 PM
Quote from: SectorZ on August 23, 2022, 03:42:18 PM
Quote from: thspfc on August 23, 2022, 01:08:24 PM
Quote from: jgb191 on August 23, 2022, 11:54:43 AM
Replace the Colts/Cowboys game with Browns/Texans on Sunday Night would be great for ratings I would like to believe.
Uh, no. Watson's return or not, Colts/Cowboys would beat Browns/Texans in ratings. Two decent teams, one of which has the largest following in the league, as opposed to one decent team and one awful team, neither of which have huge fanbases.

I don't think the NFL wants to showcase Watson in his week 1 either. That would come across as incredibly tone deaf.


Yeah but, I don't think it's coincidence his suspension is up for the Browns/Texans game.  I think when the sides were negotiating the length of the extended suspension, that game was chose on purpose.  I don't put it past the NFL to make money/gain ratings from this mess. 

As I noted upthread, it was chosen on purpose but nothing to do with the Texans. Watson needs to be on the roster for 6 games for his salary increase for the next season to kick in, so 11 games was the longest suspension that he wouldn't fight.

Learn something new every day I guess. That would actually make sense, I'm just surprised it wasn't mentioned in any of the reporting that I saw anywhere.
Does anyone still trust the media? Or think the media reports the whole truth and nothing but the truth? Because they don't. Sports or otherwise.

webny99

Quote from: thspfc on August 24, 2022, 11:59:42 AM
Quote from: webny99 on August 23, 2022, 07:35:27 PM
Quote from: NWI_Irish96 on August 23, 2022, 06:21:38 PM
...
As I noted upthread, it was chosen on purpose but nothing to do with the Texans. Watson needs to be on the roster for 6 games for his salary increase for the next season to kick in, so 11 games was the longest suspension that he wouldn't fight.

Learn something new every day I guess. That would actually make sense, I'm just surprised it wasn't mentioned in any of the reporting that I saw anywhere.
Does anyone still trust the media? Or think the media reports the whole truth and nothing but the truth? Because they don't. Sports or otherwise.

Of course not, but "the media" is a huge entity, and that's a really important thing to mention. Not only that, it's cynical, just like most/all of the Watson coverage, so it's something that you'd expect to be in the coverage. (I'm also broadly including the various podcasts I've listened to in the past ~2 months, some of which I would definitely expect to explain this, or at least mention it.)

I mean... now I'm googling it to verify and coming up empty. Maybe NWI_Irish96 has a citation.

NWI_Irish96

Quote from: webny99 on August 24, 2022, 01:26:50 PM
Quote from: thspfc on August 24, 2022, 11:59:42 AM
Quote from: webny99 on August 23, 2022, 07:35:27 PM
Quote from: NWI_Irish96 on August 23, 2022, 06:21:38 PM
...
As I noted upthread, it was chosen on purpose but nothing to do with the Texans. Watson needs to be on the roster for 6 games for his salary increase for the next season to kick in, so 11 games was the longest suspension that he wouldn't fight.

Learn something new every day I guess. That would actually make sense, I'm just surprised it wasn't mentioned in any of the reporting that I saw anywhere.
Does anyone still trust the media? Or think the media reports the whole truth and nothing but the truth? Because they don't. Sports or otherwise.

Of course not, but "the media" is a huge entity, and that's a really important thing to mention. Not only that, it's cynical, just like most/all of the Watson coverage, so it's something that you'd expect to be in the coverage. (I'm also broadly including the various podcasts I've listened to in the past ~2 months, some of which I would definitely expect to explain this, or at least mention it.)

I mean... now I'm googling it to verify and coming up empty. Maybe NWI_Irish96 has a citation.

https://twitter.com/bradfordfini/status/1560301740301471745

OK, so what I originally read wasn't 100% accurate. He needs 6 games for the year to count as a year of service time, not to advance his contract to the next year, which is less important given Watson's contract but still possibly why that number was agreed to
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