Core-Based Statistical Area changes 2023

[NWI_Irish96]

NC:
- Durham/Chapel Hill retires from Granville county.

Granville County will surely make a big comeback, but there might be a fight as to whether it belongs in Raleigh -or- Durham/Chapel Hill.  After the completion of I-885, the amount of rush hour traffic on I-85 north of Durham has nearly doubled (and I cannot help but think that development in southern Granville has also doubled).  Since much of that traffic is headed to Research Triangle Park, Granville still belongs to Durham/Chapel Hill for now.  But business growth in Western Wake and Raleigh proper still might result in a traffic burst along I-885//I-85 into Granville, rather than taking the slow boat up Creedmoor Road (NC-50).

Is there a good reason for Raleigh and Durham-Chapel Hill to be separate MSAs? I know they're combined as a CSA but I don't feel like they're actually separate metropolitan areas. Not having the Triangle as one MSA is a bit misleading.

It caught me off guard some 10 years ago or so, as Raleigh-Durham was historically one MSA.  That was more than a decade after they were officially split in 2003.  We've got a fellow from the Census Bureau on this board who can add more clarity, but it is my understanding that when Durham got over a particular population then we deserved to be split off into a separate MSA.  It gets confusing, because some of the Raleigh-Durham CSA components are far-flung (but not as bad as the Charlotte CSA).

First of all, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) defines MSAs, but they do so using data compiled by the Census Bureau, and as such I do have some knowledge about it. Population itself doesn't matter, note that Dallas and Fort Worth are part of the same MSA. It has more to do with the economic interdependencies of the counties. Having never been to and not overly familiar with the Research Triangle, my guess would be that Raleigh and Durham function more independently of each other, likely due to both having major universities.

I know that percentages of people commuting from one place to another is a big part of it, though I don't know how much that is still emphasized with so many remote workers post-COVID.

[bandit957]

I think it works like so: Each metropolitan area is built around a contiguous built-up urban area. Dallas/Fort Worth has a contiguous buildup, but Raleigh/Durham must have a gap somewhere, or it becomes very narrow in between so the urban buildup can be split. Additional counties can be added based on commuting data.

Areas can be merged into a single area if they have enough commuting between them, but Raleigh/Durham must not meet the threshold.

[Molandfreak]

It's weird that Lake County, MN was kicked out of Duluth, as I find it hard to imagine the employment thresholds dropped below 25%.

Especially since it was only in the MSA for a decade or less.

[The Nature Boy]

I think it works like so: Each metropolitan area is built around a contiguous built-up urban area. Dallas/Fort Worth has a contiguous buildup, but Raleigh/Durham must have a gap somewhere, or it becomes very narrow in between so the urban buildup can be split. Additional counties can be added based on commuting data.

Areas can be merged into a single area if they have enough commuting between them, but Raleigh/Durham must not meet the threshold.

This isn't the case with Raleigh and Durham, in fact they border each other at points due to rampant annexation. It makes no sense to separate them, it's one continuous metropolitan area. The fact that they were together when the area was less developed makes this case stronger. I can't think of anyone who separates them into two different areas.

[bandit957]

This isn't the case with Raleigh and Durham, in fact they border each other at points due to rampant annexation. It makes no sense to separate them, it's one continuous metropolitan area. The fact that they were together when the area was less developed makes this case stronger. I can't think of anyone who separates them into two different areas.

Apparently, the built-up area is contiguous, but it's narrow enough at one point that it can be split. But it's probably a close call.

Cincinnati/Dayton is also a contiguous built-up area. But there's some narrow spots for it to be split. Cincinnati/Dayton is usually not considered locally to be a single area.

[Daniel Fiddler]

Tennessee (my home state)


Growing:
Nashville (metropolitan area population 2,233,867, city proper population 683,622)
Knoxville (metropolitan area population 945,949, city proper population 195,889)
Chattanooga (metropolitan area population 788,255, city proper population 184,086)

Shrinking:
Memphis (metropolitan area population 1,332,305, city proper population 621,056)


Most of the state EXCEPT Memphis is growing.  Tennessee just hit 7 million this year.  And Memphis's eastern and southern (Mississippi) suburbs are growing, just not the city proper or northern and western suburbs, they are what is shrinking.

Nashville is absolutely booming.  Well, maybe not as fast as Texas, Florida, metropolitan Atlanta in Georgia, and the Carolinas, but booming.  Particularly Rutherford and Williamson counties.  Rutherford is indubitably EXPLODING, probably largely due to I-840 as well as the truck traffic that go between Atlanta and Florida in the south and Chicago in the north daily on I-24!  I remember when Memphis was larger than it, in both metropolitan area and city proper population!  I was an adolescent or very young adult then, 20 or 25 years ago.  All industries based in Nashville right now are thriving, especially the medical / pharmaceutical industry.

Knoxville and Chattanooga are growing fairly fast too, although not as fast as Nashville.  The tourism industry is helping to fuel Knoxville.  And Chattanooga's position as a transportation and distribution hub is helping to fuel it.  Among probably other factors as well.  I expect Knoxville to surpass Memphis in the next two decades the way Memphis is shrinking and Knoxville is growing.

Memphis is shrinking due to high crime.  It has spread even to the suburbs.  Even Bartlett, Germantown, Collierville, and Cordova have some crime, which are affluent and used to be considered safe.