Here's an interesting example of how people fail to handle large numbers:
I know someone at church who used to be in charge of QC for a company that made a/c units. Professionally, he was used to interpreting numbers in context–say, was an issue that had arisen with their customers a total of 126 times nationwide one that needed to be addressed, or was 126 a small enough number to be acceptable? Should all potentially affected customers be sent a notice, or would that cause more harm than good? Et cetera?
Anyway, at a church missions committee meeting, I was explaining to him where in Mexico we do mission work in, where we drive across the border, and such. In response to my description of the driving route, he then said something like "based on what's happening in the area, I assume"–as in cartel violence. He then mentioned a former work associate who lives in Monterrey, who refuses to drive out of town because of the violence.
This is someone who obviously knows how to handle large numbers. But he apparently isn't in this case.
Let's take for an example the highway between Monterrey and Nuevo Laredo. 5½ million vehicles drive that highway every year. Even if there were a cartel incident on that highway every six months, that would still mean the chance of the victim being you is just under 1 in 3 million–approximately the same as being struck by lightning in the USA during a given year.
Or take for another example, the intersection of Kellogg and Rock Road here in Wichita. That intersection sees about 50 car crashes every year–call it one wreck per week. And yet I'm fairly certain this man doesn't avoid that intersection when he's on my side of town.
