Oddities that defy conventional wisdom - POPULATION edition

[SkyPesos]

New York's most populous city is in the 8 million range and its next most populous city is in the 200,000 range.

Perhaps not surprisingly, New York also has the biggest percentage drop between first and second largest cities:
Buffalo's population is only 3.3% of New York's.

Chicago is #2: Aurora's population is 6.6% of Chicago's.

The smallest drop is West Virginia: Huntington's population is 95.8% of Charleston's.

The average is 51.2%, which just happens to be Kentucky: Lexington's population is 51.2% of Louisville's.

Guessing that Tennessee and Alabama are somewhere in the smallest drop as well, considering that Nashville passed Memphis and Huntsville passed Birmingham between the 2010 and 2020 censuses?

[webny99]

New York's most populous city is in the 8 million range and its next most populous city is in the 200,000 range. This state needs more medium sized cities.

Why?

It's just economically important. Buffalo and Rochester have their fair share of destinations, but they're just too small to drive true out-of-state tourism like other states do. People come to Florida for Miami, but they also come for Orlando. Same with Los Angeles and San Francisco. Same with Houston and Dallas. Atlanta and Savannah. The list goes on. If BUF and ROC were both a bustling metropolis, let's say 500k+ each, it would completely revitalize upstate tourism as well as bring newfound economic growth to towns along the Thruway. New York is such a beautiful state and it's sad that so many only come here for NYC and not all the trees, parks, lakes, and great roads we have to offer. Plus, as a downstate resident, I personally would like another city in this state to visit that feels like an actual city and not just a small downtown area surrounded by miles of suburbs and insignificant towns.

I agree with your sentiment but I think what you're saying is that NY needs another large city. Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and Albany are all pretty clearly mid-sized cities/metro areas IMO.

And the Buffalo area has Niagara Falls, which is a big draw and almost certainly more well-known nationwide than Savannah, GA... but in terms of large-scale revitalization and/or major growth, I don't really see that happening.

The thing is, no one really has tolerance for congestion, upstate or not. I don't know about the Albany area (assuming that's where you are) but I think Buffalo and Rochester are theoretically more than equipped to handle a couple tens of thousands more people, if not hundreds with new construction. The interstates in the Rochester area, at least when I was there, were way under capacity and almost empty-feeling in the evenings.

Of course no one likes congestion, but we have it so good in upstate NY that even minor delays annoy us. Things like driving below the speed limit on the freeway, or waiting for two light cycles at a busy intersection.

Yes, both Buffalo and Rochester have road networks that could handle an influx of population, but with some caveats. Buffalo's freeway network functions well overall, but the free section of I-90 is already a problem, especially between Walden Ave and I-290. Rochester is even better off because most thru traffic stays on the Thruway, so there's hardly ever any issues on the freeways aside from a few minor slowdowns at rush hour. The bigger issues would actually be off the freeway network, since the freeways are hard to access and inconvenient from some areas (Fairport, Pittsford) so navigating the eastern suburbs can be painstaking even outside rush hour.  Also, some of our major commercial corridors are at or near capacity including some that are still two/three lanes (and unlike Buffalo, six lanes is very rare), so that would have to be addressed.

[J N Winkler]

Cook County, Illinois, has a greater population than the 98 smallest counties of the state, combined.

I mean, it's no surprise that Cook County is the biggest, but that's all but three counties in the state, which is a lot.

The population centroid of Illinois is in Mazon, which is in Grundy County.  Grundy is separated from Cook just by Will and all three are part of the Chicago MSA.

[Rothman]

So...we need bigger cities in upstate NY to promote tourism.

Because everyone wants to go to Wichita.

[kphoger]

New Zealand entire country's population has the same amount of people that lives in the City of Los Angeles and Singapore respectively.

Respective of what?

[Chris]

San Jose dropped below 1 million in the 2021 estimate.

Wikipedia has a list of U.S. cities formerly over 100,000 inhabitants. The formerly largest city on that list is Flint, Michigan, which peaked at 197,000 but is now at 81,000. The largest percentage drop is Youngstown, Ohio, which dropped from 170,000 to 60,000.

Internationally, there are some countries which are undergoing demographic collapse. Ukraine is currently an obvious example. However there are more in the former USSR. For example: Moldova dropped from 4.36 million in 1990 to 3.15 million today, or even 2.68 million excluding Transnistria. Armenia dropped from 3.6 million in 1991 to 2.9 million today.

There's also been talking about the upcoming demographic collapse of China, which is seemingly much faster than anticipated, as previous census results were manipulated, so China is likely already in decline.

Demographers say that the Chinese collapse is much faster due to the One Child policy, the official census data doesn't match up with the number of births since 1990. And while the One Child policy has been lifted, the cost of living has gotten so high that most people cannot afford to have children, so its birth rate may be closer to 1 than 2.

Also: China's babyboom began in 1962, after it recovered from the 'Great Leap Forward'. China's retirement age is 60 years. Which means that from 2022, there is mass retirement while the number of people entering the job market is far lower, so their labor shortages are going to be much more acutely and severe than Japan or in western countries. China's economic model of being the world's factory is quickly becoming unsustainable.

[DTComposer]

New York's most populous city is in the 8 million range and its next most populous city is in the 200,000 range.

Perhaps not surprisingly, New York also has the biggest percentage drop between first and second largest cities:
Buffalo's population is only 3.3% of New York's.

Chicago is #2: Aurora's population is 6.6% of Chicago's.

The smallest drop is West Virginia: Huntington's population is 95.8% of Charleston's.

The average is 51.2%, which just happens to be Kentucky: Lexington's population is 51.2% of Louisville's.

Guessing that Tennessee and Alabama are somewhere in the smallest drop as well, considering that Nashville passed Memphis and Huntsville passed Birmingham between the 2010 and 2020 censuses?

True. Tennessee is second and Alabama is fifth. Full table:

STATE	City1	Pop1	City2	Pop2	Pct
WEST VIRGINIA	Charleston	48,018	Huntington	46,025	95.8%
TENNESSEE	Nashville	678,851	Memphis	628,127	92.5%
NEW JERSEY	Newark	307,220	Jersey City	283,927	92.4%
CONNECTICUT	Bridgeport	148,333	Stamford	136,309	91.9%
ALABAMA	Huntsville	216,963	Montgomery	198,665	91.6%
SOUTH CAROLINA	Charleston	151,612	Columbia	137,541	90.7%
WYOMING	Cheyenne	65,051	Casper	58,656	90.2%
NEW HAMPSHIRE	Manchester	115,462	Nashua	91,124	78.9%
MINNESOTA	Minneapolis	425,336	St. Paul	307,193	72.2%
UTAH	Salt Lake City	200,478	West Valley City	139,110	69.4%
COLORADO	Denver	711,463	Colorado Springs	483,956	68.0%
TEXAS	Houston	2,288,250	San Antonio	1,481,853	64.8%
IOWA	Des Moines	212,031	Cedar Rapids	136,467	64.4%
MONTANA	Billings	117,445	Missoula	74,822	63.7%
NEBRASKA	Omaha	487,300	Lincoln	292,657	60.1%
OKLAHOMA	Oklahoma City	687,725	Tulsa	411,401	59.8%
LOUISIANA	New Orleans	376,971	Baton Rouge	222,185	58.9%
NORTH DAKOTA	Fargo	126,748	Bismarck	74,138	58.5%
MISSOURI	Kansas City	508,394	St. Louis	293,310	57.7%
DELAWARE	Wilmington	70,750	Dover	38,992	55.1%
VIRGINIA	Virginia Beach	457,672	Chesapeake	251,269	54.9%
KANSAS	Wichita	365,699	Overland Park	197,106	53.9%
MAINE	Portland	68,313	Lewiston	36,617	53.6%
NORTH CAROLINA	Charlotte	879,709	Raleigh	469,124	53.3%
IDAHO	Boise	237,446	Meridian	125,963	53.0%
KENTUCKY	Louisville	628,594	Lexington	321,793	51.2%
NEVADA	Las Vegas	646,790	Henerson	322,178	49.8%
VERMONT	Burlington	44,781	Essex	22,251	49.7%
MISSISSIPPI	Jackson	149,761	Gulfport	72,105	48.1%
WISCONSIN	Milwaukee	569,330	Madison	269,196	47.3%
FLORIDA	Jacksonville	954,614	Miami	439,890	46.1%
RHODE ISLAND	Providence	189,692	Warwick	83,011	43.8%
ARKANSAS	Little Rock	201,998	Fort Smith	88,037	43.6%
GEORGIA	Atlanta	496,461	Columbus	205,617	41.4%
OHIO	Columbus	906,528	Cleveland	367,991	40.6%
SOUTH DAKOTA	Sioux Falls	196,528	Rapid City	76,184	38.8%
CALIFORNIA	Los Angeles	3,849,297	San Diego	1,381,611	35.9%
ARIZONA	Phoenix	1,624,569	Tucson	543,242	33.4%
MASSACHUSETTS	Boston	654,776	Worcester	205,918	31.4%
MICHIGAN	Detroit	632,464	Grand Rapids	197,416	31.2%
WASHINGTON	Seattle	733,919	Spokane	229,071	31.2%
INDIANA	Indianapolis	882,039	Fort Wayne	265,974	30.2%
OREGON	Portland	641,162	Salem	177,723	27.7%
NEW MEXICO	Albuquerque	562,599	Las Cruces	112,914	20.1%
PENNSYLVANIA	Philadelphia	1,576,251	Pittsburgh	300,431	19.1%
MARYLAND	Baltimore	576,498	Columbia	105,412	18.3%
HAWAI	Honolulu	345,510	East Honolulu	47,132	13.6%
ALASKA	Anchorage	288,121	Fairbanks	32,515	11.3%
ILLINOIS	Chicago	2,696,555	Aurora	179,266	6.6%
NEW YORK	New York	8,467,513	Buffalo	276,807	3.3%

[jeffandnicole]

And the Buffalo area has Niagara Falls, which is a big draw and almost certainly more well-known nationwide than Savannah, GA... but in terms of large-scale revitalization and/or major growth, I don't really see that happening.

Niagara Falls in general is probably more well known. But it's its the Canadian side that gets the visitors, not the NY side.

Savannah has a LOT more hotel rooms than Niagara Falls, NY.

[hotdogPi]

Doesn't upstate NY get tourism in the rural areas, like the mountains and the Finger Lakes?

[NWI_Irish96]

City limit population in general is weird and highly inconsistent, and sometimes defy conventional wisdom. Two of my favorite cases:

Older cities have been boxed in by other municipalities for a long time now, so growth in their metro areas has been entirely outside of the city. Newer cities have been able to annex area much more recently so they've had more growth within their cities. That's how San Jose was able to grow bigger than San Francisco, and Houston and San Antonio were able to grow larger than Dallas.

[webny99]

And the Buffalo area has Niagara Falls, which is a big draw and almost certainly more well-known nationwide than Savannah, GA... but in terms of large-scale revitalization and/or major growth, I don't really see that happening.

Niagara Falls in general is probably more well known. But it's its the Canadian side that gets the visitors, not the NY side.

Savannah has a LOT more hotel rooms than Niagara Falls, NY.

Savannah is also much larger than Niagara Falls, NY. I was referring to the Buffalo-Niagara region holistically.

While it's true that the Canadian side gets more visitors, the NY side gets plenty of visitors too. Niagara Falls State Park is one of the busiest parks in the state, and has much more green space with much lighter crowds than what you'll find on the Canadian side, plus Cave of the Winds, which is one of the top attractions on either side. (And of course, the views are better in Canada because they're of the US side )

[webny99]

Doesn't upstate NY get tourism in the rural areas, like the mountains and the Finger Lakes?

Yes, but a lot of it is in-state tourism, or international tourism to the extent that it's not limited by the border crossings. Some areas get tourists from PA, but much of the state is out of day-trip range from other states.

Just as two examples...
-Buffalo-Niagara is an easier day trip from southern Ontario than any other US state
-The Adirondacks are are an easier day trip from the Montreal area than any other US state except Vermont, which has its own tourism industry.

[bing101]

New Zealand entire country's population has the same amount of people that lives in the City of Los Angeles and Singapore respectively.

Respective of what?

Population size.

[hotdogPi]

New Zealand entire country's population has the same amount of people that lives in the City of Los Angeles and Singapore respectively.

Respective of what?

Population size.

Respectively means you're keeping the order of items the same. You're comparing one item to two, so it can't even apply here.

[vdeane]

I don't know about the Albany area (assuming that's where you are) but I think Buffalo and Rochester are theoretically more than equipped to handle a couple tens of thousands more people, if not hundreds with new construction. The interstates in the Rochester area, at least when I was there, were way under capacity and almost empty-feeling in the evenings.

The Capital District (Albany/Schenectady/Troy and nearby areas) is similar, if not even less traffic (at least when the tourists aren't going to/from the Adirondacks and Saratoga Springs), especially now that the state and other employers have increased telecommuting over pre-pandemic levels.  Oddly enough, that last sentence actually illustrates my point.  Having grown up around Rochester and now living north of Albany, I wouldn't describe Rochester's freeways as "way under capacity and almost empty-feeling in the evenings".  I'm used to being able to flow at at least the speed limit unimpeded for the vast majority of my drive.  Once the traffic level goes from green to yellow (and often even before) on Google Maps, it feels congested to me.

[jeffandnicole]

I don't know about the Albany area (assuming that's where you are) but I think Buffalo and Rochester are theoretically more than equipped to handle a couple tens of thousands more people, if not hundreds with new construction. The interstates in the Rochester area, at least when I was there, were way under capacity and almost empty-feeling in the evenings.

The Capital District (Albany/Schenectady/Troy and nearby areas) is similar, if not even less traffic (at least when the tourists aren't going to/from the Adirondacks and Saratoga Springs), especially now that the state and other employers have increased telecommuting over pre-pandemic levels.  Oddly enough, that last sentence actually illustrates my point.  Having grown up around Rochester and now living north of Albany, I wouldn't describe Rochester's freeways as "way under capacity and almost empty-feeling in the evenings".  I'm used to being able to flow at at least the speed limit unimpeded for the vast majority of my drive.  Once the traffic level goes from green to yellow (and often even before) on Google Maps, it feels congested to me.

It should! Yellow is generally when traffic is moving below the speed limit, moving at about 30- 50 mph, so there's congestion. Red is slow than that. Dark red is about 15 mph and below.

[skluth]

Los Angeles County has more people (10,014,009) than all but ten states. It's barely smaller than #10 Michigan (10,050,811) and will probably pass Michigan in population soon if it hasn't already.

[kirbykart]

Los Angeles County has more people (10,014,009) than all but ten states. It's barely smaller than #10 Michigan (10,050,811) and will probably pass Michigan in population soon if it hasn't already.

Another (albeit slightly less) surprising fact from this post is that Michigan is in the top 10 population-wise. I would imagine it in top 20 but not top 10.

[Dirt Roads]

Los Angeles County has more people (10,014,009) than all but ten states. It's barely smaller than #10 Michigan (10,050,811) and will probably pass Michigan in population soon if it hasn't already.

Another (albeit slightly less) surprising fact from this post is that Michigan is in the top 10 population-wise. I would imagine it in top 20 but not top 10.

Not sure why that is surprising, as Michigan has been in the Top Ten since the 1880 U.S. Census.  The population loss of Detroit was significant, but overall population declines in two other traditional Top Ten states (Massachusetts and New Jersey) dropped them out completely.  Michigan is still hanging around.

[interstatefan990]

I agree with your sentiment but I think what you're saying is that NY needs another large city. Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and Albany are all pretty clearly mid-sized cities/metro areas IMO.

Depends on what you consider a "medium sized" city. For me, any city below 350-400K is midsized, but interpretations vary.

And the Buffalo area has Niagara Falls, which is a big draw and almost certainly more well-known nationwide than Savannah, GA... but in terms of large-scale revitalization and/or major growth, I don't really see that happening.

Also up to interpretation. And yeah, most of what I'm saying here is just a pipe dream.

The thing is, no one really has tolerance for congestion, upstate or not. I don't know about the Albany area (assuming that's where you are) but I think Buffalo and Rochester are theoretically more than equipped to handle a couple tens of thousands more people, if not hundreds with new construction. The interstates in the Rochester area, at least when I was there, were way under capacity and almost empty-feeling in the evenings.

Of course no one likes congestion, but we have it so good in upstate NY that even minor delays annoy us. Things like driving below the speed limit on the freeway, or waiting for two light cycles at a busy intersection.

Yes, both Buffalo and Rochester have road networks that could handle an influx of population, but with some caveats. Buffalo's freeway network functions well overall, but the free section of I-90 is already a problem, especially between Walden Ave and I-290. Rochester is even better off because most thru traffic stays on the Thruway, so there's hardly ever any issues on the freeways aside from a few minor slowdowns at rush hour. The bigger issues would actually be off the freeway network, since the freeways are hard to access and inconvenient from some areas (Fairport, Pittsford) so navigating the eastern suburbs can be painstaking even outside rush hour.  Also, some of our major commercial corridors are at or near capacity including some that are still two/three lanes (and unlike Buffalo, six lanes is very rare), so that would have to be addressed.

I guess all metro areas with a population increase are doomed to traffic somehow.

I definitely agree with that though, in areas closer to inner Rochester the connectors, arterials, major streets were moderately congested, even in the later hours. But I didn't see a whole lot of utilization of the major roads even just outside city limits. Yes, if it experienced an influx of population it still technically wouldn't be a part of the city, but that's just the way things are built in this state. I wonder if metro areas matter as much as city areas in terms of tourism, though.

Doesn't upstate NY get tourism in the rural areas, like the mountains and the Finger Lakes?

Yes, but tourism with a lowercase t. Like webny99 said, it's mostly in-staters visiting for the weekend with an insignificant small number of out-of-staters (or out-of-countriers). NY sometimes runs tourism ads showcasing the scenic rural areas of the state, but the reality is it'll never be a major tourist attraction area.

The Capital District (Albany/Schenectady/Troy and nearby areas) is similar, if not even less traffic (at least when the tourists aren't going to/from the Adirondacks and Saratoga Springs), especially now that the state and other employers have increased telecommuting over pre-pandemic levels.  Oddly enough, that last sentence actually illustrates my point.  Having grown up around Rochester and now living north of Albany, I wouldn't describe Rochester's freeways as "way under capacity and almost empty-feeling in the evenings".  I'm used to being able to flow at at least the speed limit unimpeded for the vast majority of my drive.  Once the traffic level goes from green to yellow (and often even before) on Google Maps, it feels congested to me.

Yes, I don't think you'll need to worry about any major traffic increase for the foreseeable future. I visited Rochester this June, and mostly avoided rush hour and did a lot of my travel on I-390 and I-90, so perhaps I just didn't see the worst of it. Maybe next time I visit I'll do a more extensive tour of the area's freeways, and even volunteer to venture out during rush hour.

So...we need bigger cities in upstate NY to promote tourism.

Because everyone wants to go to Wichita.

I'm almost offended by your comparison of Kansas and New York! 

Hey, everyone wants to go to Las Vegas, and that's practically in the middle of a desert. It's what's in the city that counts.

[Rothman]

So...we need bigger cities in upstate NY to promote tourism.

Because everyone wants to go to Wichita.

I'm almost offended by your comparison of Kansas and New York! 

Hey, everyone wants to go to Las Vegas, and that's practically in the middle of a desert. It's what's in the city that counts.

Which is why I find your focus on city size more than a little headscratching.

[SkyPesos]

I agree with your sentiment but I think what you're saying is that NY needs another large city. Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and Albany are all pretty clearly mid-sized cities/metro areas IMO.

Depends on what you consider a "medium sized" city. For me, any city below 350-400K is midsized, but interpretations vary.

St Louis, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are "mid-sized" while El Paso, Mesa AZ and Aurora CO are "large" then?

[kirbykart]

Los Angeles County has more people (10,014,009) than all but ten states. It's barely smaller than #10 Michigan (10,050,811) and will probably pass Michigan in population soon if it hasn't already.

Another (albeit slightly less) surprising fact from this post is that Michigan is in the top 10 population-wise. I would imagine it in top 20 but not top 10.

Not sure why that is surprising, as Michigan has been in the Top Ten since the 1880 U.S. Census.  The population loss of Detroit was significant, but overall population declines in two other traditional Top Ten states (Massachusetts and New Jersey) dropped them out completely.  Michigan is still hanging around.

It's surprising because very few people would have ever figured Michigan in the  top 10. At any point. I would have figured Michigan to be like #18.

[webny99]

I agree with your sentiment but I think what you're saying is that NY needs another large city. Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and Albany are all pretty clearly mid-sized cities/metro areas IMO.

Depends on what you consider a "medium sized" city. For me, any city below 350-400K is midsized, but interpretations vary.

I don't disagree with that, but I guess I misunderstood your original point:

This state needs more medium sized cities.

You're saying NY needs more cities the size of Buffalo and Rochester?

[webny99]

Here's a fun one: NYC is more populous than all of these states combined: