NFL (2024 Season)

[Ted$8roadFan]

New England Patriots select NC QB Drake Maye at #3.

A bummer for the rest of the AFC East.

Falcons selecting Michael Penix Jr at #8 overall is the most surprising QB pick since Daniel Jones.

This draft has definitely made history opening with 14 straight offensive players, not to mention the record-setting 6 QB's in the first 12 picks.

6 QB's gone before the Raiders picked at #13 was definitely not something anyone had mocked and they would have been laughed off the street if they had. There was plenty of talk of Bo Nix falling out of the first round entirely like Will Levis, while hardly anyone considered that he might go as early as #12. Also since there were only 6 potential first round QB's, there was some extra petty motivation for the Broncos to take the last one to stick it to the Raiders. They still got a good player in Brock Bowers, but you can bet they're disappointed all 6 QB's were gone.

I was also surprised that the Falcons selected Penix. I wonder what their rationale is.

[JayhawkCO]

If I were a Falcons fan, I'd be pissed. Thankfully I think my Vikes had a good night.

[1995hoo]

If you listened to the internet you would think it's remarkable that the franchise hasn't spontaneously combusted yet after having no first round picks for 8 years.

Recognizing that the NFL has changed quite substantially over the ensuing years, it's interesting to look back and note that the Redskins had no first-round picks from 1969 to 1979, inclusive, in 1982, and in 1984 to 1990, inclusive. The three they did have during that period turned out all right (Art Monk, Mark May, and Darrell Green), but it's interesting to note how those periods coincided with their two most successful runs in recent history (the George Allen years in the 1970s and the first Joe Gibbs era in the 1980s). You could argue that maybe the lack of first-round picks in the late 1980s contributed to the team's collapse in 1993, although there would also be a reasonable counterargument that winning Super Bowls XXII and XXVI in the years leading up to 1993 were a fair trade-off and that most people wouldn't give up the Super Bowl wins if they could go back and do it over.

I think the league, and the style of play, has changed significantly since then such that it's harder to find gold at positions like quarterback in the later rounds the way it used to be. Mark Rypien, for example, was a sixth-rounder—although I suppose it's important to recognize that Tom Brady was as well, so it's not necessarily impossible to do well in the later rounds.

[NWI_Irish96]

If I were a Falcons fan, I'd be pissed. Thankfully I think my Vikes had a good night.

I think Penix is the 2nd best QB in the draft. I'd be more pissed that they gave Cousins so much money.

[webny99]

If I were a Falcons fan, I'd be pissed. Thankfully I think my Vikes had a good night.

I don't see the Falcons picking a QB as such a negative. Not having a backup plan to Cousins basically forced the Vikings into a spot where they had to draft a QB this season. Drafting a QB you're intrigued by when it's not a top roster need is much bolder strategy, but it sure worked out for the Packers (and Chiefs!). I think there's a decent chance it works out great for the Falcons, and an even greater chance it's viewed more positively in three years than it is now. Having Cousins basically boxes them out of a top draft pick for as long as he's on the roster unless he gets injured, in which case they'd be plenty happy to get a look at the rookie. And even if they were bad this year, next year's QB class is not projected to be very good.

Definitely worked out well for the Vikings though that they were able to get Dallas Turner at pick #17 when he had been widely (and ironically) mocked to the Falcons at #8.

[jmacswimmer]

If I were a Falcons fan, I'd be pissed. Thankfully I think my Vikes had a good night.

Likewise as a Bears fan, the Falcons taking Penix allowed Rome Odunze to make it to the Bears at 9 so no complaints here. I thought Williams+Odunze would be too good to be true after the reports of them working out with DJ Moore & Keenan Allen and then flying into Detroit together, but here we are!

Bears social media was also quick to (both sarcastically & seriously) point out Ryan Pace's presence in the Falcons front office perhaps contributing to the situation - remember the Glennon/Trubisky situation in 2017?

It still blows my mind that Lovie Smith, knowing he was getting fired anyway, decided to go for it on a 4th & 20, miraculously scored a touchdown, and then went for 2 and converted for the win to give the Bears the 1st-overall last year. Then from there, the fateful Bryce Young trade has thus far turned into DJ Moore, Darnell Wright, Tyrique Stevenson, and of course now Caleb Williams (you can even possibly count Keenan Allen - the 4th-rounder traded to LAC was the one received from PHI in the Carter-Wright 9-10 swap last year), with an additional 2nd-rounder still to come next year. What a trade

[webny99]

It still blows my mind that Lovie Smith, knowing he was getting fired anyway, decided to go for it on a 4th & 20, miraculously scored a touchdown, and then went for 2 and converted for the win to give the Bears the 1st-overall last year.

Hey, the Texans sure aren't complaining about how that worked out for them either. 

(you can even possibly count Keenan Allen - the 4th-rounder traded to LAC was the one received from PHI in the Carter-Wright 9-10 swap last year)

Wasn't that a separate trade though? I'm not seeing how that pick was part of the trade haul from Carolina.

[NWI_Irish96]

It still blows my mind that Lovie Smith, knowing he was getting fired anyway, decided to go for it on a 4th & 20, miraculously scored a touchdown, and then went for 2 and converted for the win to give the Bears the 1st-overall last year.

Hey, the Texans sure aren't complaining about how that worked out for them either. 

(you can even possibly count Keenan Allen - the 4th-rounder traded to LAC was the one received from PHI in the Carter-Wright 9-10 swap last year)

Wasn't that a separate trade though? I'm not seeing how that pick was part of the trade haul from Carolina.

The #9 pick that the Bears traded to PHI was one of the picks they got from CAR, and the 4th Round pick they got from the PHI trade was used to acquire Allen, so it does count as part of that haul.

[NWI_Irish96]

If I were a Falcons fan, I'd be pissed. Thankfully I think my Vikes had a good night.

Likewise as a Bears fan, the Falcons taking Penix allowed Rome Odunze to make it to the Bears at 9 so no complaints here. I thought Williams+Odunze would be too good to be true after the reports of them working out with DJ Moore & Keenan Allen and then flying into Detroit together, but here we are!

Bears social media was also quick to (both sarcastically & seriously) point out Ryan Pace's presence in the Falcons front office perhaps contributing to the situation - remember the Glennon/Trubisky situation in 2017?

It still blows my mind that Lovie Smith, knowing he was getting fired anyway, decided to go for it on a 4th & 20, miraculously scored a touchdown, and then went for 2 and converted for the win to give the Bears the 1st-overall last year. Then from there, the fateful Bryce Young trade has thus far turned into DJ Moore, Darnell Wright, Tyrique Stevenson, and of course now Caleb Williams (you can even possibly count Keenan Allen - the 4th-rounder traded to LAC was the one received from PHI in the Carter-Wright 9-10 swap last year), with an additional 2nd-rounder still to come next year. What a trade

I'd rather Odunze not have been available because the Bears need a first round LT or EDGE way more than they need a first round WR.

[triplemultiplex]

Bears quarterback cycle:
pre-draft hype
underwhelming start
glimmers of hope
one really good game or two
regression to the mean
whole season of mediocrity
benched
cut/traded
<start over>

I'm sure it'll be different this time.

[jmacswimmer]

If I were a Falcons fan, I'd be pissed. Thankfully I think my Vikes had a good night.

Likewise as a Bears fan, the Falcons taking Penix allowed Rome Odunze to make it to the Bears at 9 so no complaints here. I thought Williams+Odunze would be too good to be true after the reports of them working out with DJ Moore & Keenan Allen and then flying into Detroit together, but here we are!

Bears social media was also quick to (both sarcastically & seriously) point out Ryan Pace's presence in the Falcons front office perhaps contributing to the situation - remember the Glennon/Trubisky situation in 2017?

It still blows my mind that Lovie Smith, knowing he was getting fired anyway, decided to go for it on a 4th & 20, miraculously scored a touchdown, and then went for 2 and converted for the win to give the Bears the 1st-overall last year. Then from there, the fateful Bryce Young trade has thus far turned into DJ Moore, Darnell Wright, Tyrique Stevenson, and of course now Caleb Williams (you can even possibly count Keenan Allen - the 4th-rounder traded to LAC was the one received from PHI in the Carter-Wright 9-10 swap last year), with an additional 2nd-rounder still to come next year. What a trade

I'd rather Odunze not have been available because the Bears need a first round LT or EDGE way more than they need a first round WR.

Joe Alt would have been a great pick at 9 if he had made it that far, and I imagine that the Bears would have traded down and gone defense had Odunze been taken before 9. An EDGE to pair with Sweat definitely strikes me as the biggest remaining need, as for LT I guess Braxton Jones gets at least one more year to prove it now. My bigger concern on the o-line was C - Bates is probably fine for the short-term, and Powers-Johnson isn't happening barring some sort of crazy trade-up to the early 2nd round.

[jmacswimmer]

Bears quarterback cycle:
pre-draft hype
underwhelming start
glimmers of hope
one really good game or two
regression to the mean
whole season of mediocrity
benched
cut/traded
<start over>

I'm sure it'll be different this time.

Hey now, at least let us ride our high for a little bit before it all comes crashing down    (as my boss just came over and made the same joke not 15 minutes ago...)

[JayhawkCO]

If I were a Falcons fan, I'd be pissed. Thankfully I think my Vikes had a good night.

I think Penix is the 2nd best QB in the draft. I'd be more pissed that they gave Cousins so much money.

If I were a Falcons fan, I'd be pissed. Thankfully I think my Vikes had a good night.

I don't see the Falcons picking a QB as such a negative. Not having a backup plan to Cousins basically forced the Vikings into a spot where they had to draft a QB this season. Drafting a QB you're intrigued by when it's not a top roster need is much bolder strategy, but it sure worked out for the Packers (and Chiefs!). I think there's a decent chance it works out great for the Falcons, and an even greater chance it's viewed more positively in three years than it is now. Having Cousins basically boxes them out of a top draft pick for as long as he's on the roster unless he gets injured, in which case they'd be plenty happy to get a look at the rookie. And even if they were bad this year, next year's QB class is not projected to be very good.

Definitely worked out well for the Vikings though that they were able to get Dallas Turner at pick #17 when he had been widely (and ironically) mocked to the Falcons at #8.

Drafting Penix when you just signed Cousins is completely asinine. An analogy would be if you were single for a long time and then met a woman that you fell in love with and got married. Right after the wedding, you meet another attractive woman with whom you have an instant connection. Yeah, it sucks at the timing, since you went so long without a relationship, and now you have found two in a short span of time. But now that you've committed to someone, you have to let the other one go. If you decide to engage with both, it's just going to end up messy and cost you a lot of money and heartache.

Of all the QBs to draft as the Falcons, Penix was specifically the worst one, since he turns 24 in two weeks. By the time Cousins is done earning his guaranteed money, Penix will be almost 28, and at least halfway through his prime athletic years.

The whole reason that QBs are so over-drafted is because, when you pick a winner, you get what is basically a $35,000,000 a year player for the price of a rookie contract. That allows a ton of roster flexibility. If you're only in the market to get really expensive free agent QBs, your salary cap obviously gets skewed by the most expensive position in sports.

[webny99]

^ All I'm saying is a somewhat similar strategy worked out OK for the Packers with Jordan Love and even better for the Chiefs with Mahomes. Even though the financials here are a bit different, the fact that they just paid Cousins so much money is arguably the worse move. It's a unique approach, but too early to say for sure that it was a bad move since the projected upside is long-term rather than immediate. If the pick hits, the contract stuff won't matter as much, and certainly won't be a talking point in 5+ years.

[webny99]

(you can even possibly count Keenan Allen - the 4th-rounder traded to LAC was the one received from PHI in the Carter-Wright 9-10 swap last year)

Wasn't that a separate trade though? I'm not seeing how that pick was part of the trade haul from Carolina.

The #9 pick that the Bears traded to PHI was one of the picks they got from CAR, and the 4th Round pick they got from the PHI trade was used to acquire Allen, so it does count as part of that haul.

That value was still obtained from Philly, not Carolina, but I guess it's kind of inseparable.

[jmacswimmer]

(you can even possibly count Keenan Allen - the 4th-rounder traded to LAC was the one received from PHI in the Carter-Wright 9-10 swap last year)

Wasn't that a separate trade though? I'm not seeing how that pick was part of the trade haul from Carolina.

The #9 pick that the Bears traded to PHI was one of the picks they got from CAR, and the 4th Round pick they got from the PHI trade was used to acquire Allen, so it does count as part of that haul.

That value was still obtained from Philly, not Carolina, but I guess it's kind of inseparable.

I actually had it backwards after going back to double-check - the Bears traded their original 4th-rounder to LAC for Allen and still hold the 4th from Philly. So whomever gets picked in that slot on Saturday would be the one to arguably included in the haul, not Allen.

[NWI_Irish96]

If I were a Falcons fan, I'd be pissed. Thankfully I think my Vikes had a good night.

Likewise as a Bears fan, the Falcons taking Penix allowed Rome Odunze to make it to the Bears at 9 so no complaints here. I thought Williams+Odunze would be too good to be true after the reports of them working out with DJ Moore & Keenan Allen and then flying into Detroit together, but here we are!

Bears social media was also quick to (both sarcastically & seriously) point out Ryan Pace's presence in the Falcons front office perhaps contributing to the situation - remember the Glennon/Trubisky situation in 2017?

It still blows my mind that Lovie Smith, knowing he was getting fired anyway, decided to go for it on a 4th & 20, miraculously scored a touchdown, and then went for 2 and converted for the win to give the Bears the 1st-overall last year. Then from there, the fateful Bryce Young trade has thus far turned into DJ Moore, Darnell Wright, Tyrique Stevenson, and of course now Caleb Williams (you can even possibly count Keenan Allen - the 4th-rounder traded to LAC was the one received from PHI in the Carter-Wright 9-10 swap last year), with an additional 2nd-rounder still to come next year. What a trade

I'd rather Odunze not have been available because the Bears need a first round LT or EDGE way more than they need a first round WR.

Joe Alt would have been a great pick at 9 if he had made it that far, and I imagine that the Bears would have traded down and gone defense had Odunze been taken before 9. An EDGE to pair with Sweat definitely strikes me as the biggest remaining need, as for LT I guess Braxton Jones gets at least one more year to prove it now. My bigger concern on the o-line was C - Bates is probably fine for the short-term, and Powers-Johnson isn't happening barring some sort of crazy trade-up to the early 2nd round.

Alt was never going to make it to 9. Still, Fashanu at LT or Turner at EDGE would have helped more than Odunze. You can get a fine 3rd WR in the third round.

[thspfc]

Bears quarterback cycle:
pre-draft hype
underwhelming start
glimmers of hope
one really good game or two
regression to the mean
whole season of mediocrity
benched
cut/traded
<start over>

I'm sure it'll be different this time.

I agree, it will be different. Every Packers fan I know (which is a lot considering where I'm from) has that same dismissive energy about this Bears team. These are not the same old Bears, maybe you'll realize soon enough.

Of course, Green Bay should be very good too and Detroit was probably one dropped interception away from the Super Bowl. There's a ton of offensive talent in that division, including probably four of the top ten WRs in the league. Minnesota is clearly the worst team to me and I don't even think they're bad.

^ All I'm saying is a somewhat similar strategy worked out OK for the Packers with Jordan Love and even better for the Chiefs with Mahomes. Even though the financials here are a bit different, the fact that they just paid Cousins so much money is arguably the worse move. It's a unique approach, but too early to say for sure that it was a bad move since the projected upside is long-term rather than immediate. If the pick hits, the contract stuff won't matter as much, and certainly won't be a talking point in 5+ years.

"If the pick hits" applies to every draft pick ever, so by that logic, why does anyone waste time discussing the draft at all?

[JayhawkCO]

^ All I'm saying is a somewhat similar strategy worked out OK for the Packers with Jordan Love and even better for the Chiefs with Mahomes. Even though the financials here are a bit different, the fact that they just paid Cousins so much money is arguably the worse move. It's a unique approach, but too early to say for sure that it was a bad move since the projected upside is long-term rather than immediate. If the pick hits, the contract stuff won't matter as much, and certainly won't be a talking point in 5+ years.

Alex Smith had one year left on his contract and was guaranteed 15 million. Patrick Mahomes was only 21 years old. At the end of Smith's contract, Mahomes would be 23.

Aaron Rodgers had two years left on his contract and was guaranteed 67 million. Jordan Love was only 21 years old. At the end of Rodgers' contract, Love would be 24.

Kirk Cousins has four years left on his contract and is guaranteed 100 million. Michael Penix is (just about) 24 years old. At the end of Cousins' contract, Penix will be 28.

One of these is considerably not like the other. I'm also still holding judgement on Love's future career. He is nowhere near Mahomes' level and I doubt he will ever be a top 10 QB in the league. Penix has a length injury history, and that was when he was still young. As he gets into his upper 20's and early 30's, that could very well be the story of his career.

The move is baffling.

[thspfc]

I'm also still holding judgement on Love's future career. He is nowhere near Mahomes' level and I doubt he will ever be a top 10 QB in the league.

Love is a top 10 QB right now . . .

[JayhawkCO]

I'm also still holding judgement on Love's future career. He is nowhere near Mahomes' level and I doubt he will ever be a top 10 QB in the league.

Love is a top 10 QB right now . . .

Looks like we're back to this, eh?  I can think of, off the top of my head, 15 QBs that are better.

Mahomes
Lamar
Allen
Burrow
Stroud
Herbert
Rodgers
Cousins
Hurts
Goff
Lawrence
Prescott
Murray
Purdy
Tua

[epzik8]

If I were a Falcons fan, I'd be pissed. Thankfully I think my Vikes had a good night.

Kirk continues to get completely shafted. I hate it.

[NWI_Irish96]

If I were a Falcons fan, I'd be pissed. Thankfully I think my Vikes had a good night.

Kirk continues to get completely shafted. I hate it.

Kirk Cousins gets overrated because he's historically replaced really bad quarterbacks and seemed like a savior by comparison. There's a reason two other teams moved on from him.

The Falcons' mistake of giving him such a huge contract in the first place shouldn't have been compounded by passing on a very high-ceiling talent like Penix. I've maintained all along that he's the 2nd best QB in this draft.

[NWI_Irish96]

I'm also still holding judgement on Love's future career. He is nowhere near Mahomes' level and I doubt he will ever be a top 10 QB in the league.

Love is a top 10 QB right now . . .

Looks like we're back to this, eh?  I can think of, off the top of my head, 15 QBs that are better.

Mahomes
Lamar
Allen
Burrow
Stroud
Herbert
Rodgers
Cousins
Hurts
Goff
Lawrence
Prescott
Murray
Purdy
Tua

I think Love is a fringe Top 10 guy.

Mahomes is currently in a category of his own.

Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Stroud and Herbert are in the next tier. Rodgers might be here also but he's old and coming off a major injury.

Tua, Goff, Lawrence, Stafford, Prescott, Hurts and Purdy are guys I'd take over Love right now but he could easily surpass any or all of them.

Would not take Cousins or Murray over Love at all.

[JayhawkCO]

I'm also still holding judgement on Love's future career. He is nowhere near Mahomes' level and I doubt he will ever be a top 10 QB in the league.

Love is a top 10 QB right now . . .

Looks like we're back to this, eh?  I can think of, off the top of my head, 15 QBs that are better.

Mahomes
Lamar
Allen
Burrow
Stroud
Herbert
Rodgers
Cousins
Hurts
Goff
Lawrence
Prescott
Murray
Purdy
Tua

I think Love is a fringe Top 10 guy.

Mahomes is currently in a category of his own.

Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Stroud and Herbert are in the next tier. Rodgers might be here also but he's old and coming off a major injury.

Tua, Goff, Lawrence, Stafford, Prescott, Hurts and Purdy are guys I'd take over Love right now but he could easily surpass any or all of them.

Would not take Cousins or Murray over Love at all.

Cousins stats make him top 7-8. Look at the dropoff the Vikings had last year when he went down with an injury.

Either way, you still listed 13 better QBs than Love. That makes Love basically an average QB in the NFL, which is all I was saying. Despite me being a Vikings fan, I can appreciate that Love isn't bad, and is actually far better than I thought he'd be. Still, with that being said, he's not a great QB. By your numbers alone, he's barely an above average NFL QB.

If you were certain Love would be as good as he is now, but at the time of being drafted, he was 24 years old and Rodgers had just signed a 4-year, $100 million guaranteed deal, picking Love would be equally as idiotic. It's a waste of finite resources.