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Max Rockatansky:

--- Quote from: kernals12 on October 31, 2022, 03:11:54 PM ---
--- Quote from: Max Rockatansky on October 31, 2022, 02:35:55 PM ---
--- Quote from: kernals12 on October 31, 2022, 02:09:34 PM ---We live in cookie cutter homes for the same reason we drive cookie cutter cars and talk on cookie cutter smartphones: economies of scale

--- End quote ---

Doesnít make any of them less boring.  Basically with the cookie cutter housing it is 2.3 kids, a dog and white picket fence with a modern coat of paint.  Paint me as someone who doesnít get excited at the prospect of a ubiquitous/generic lifestyle.

All the same, buying all the way out where this developer is building is an interesting repeat of Queen Creek and Gilbert.  Those two communities blew up before the Loop 202 and Loop 101 could serve them efficiently.  Commuting from Queen Creek and Gilbert was an absolute nightmare until that access was completed.  Now we have a similar scale of development going in around Buckeye but with less solid assurance the infrastructure capacity will be built.

--- End quote ---

Luckily Teravalis includes an easement for Interstate 11 no matter how long it takes to get funding.

--- End quote ---

That will certainly help, but I-11 is one those things Iíll believe is going to happen when shovels are in the ground.  That whole course west of the White Tank Mountains makes zero sense as far as providing a Vegas-Phoenix link.

Bobby5280:
A planned community of 300,000 home-buying customers? It sounds to me like some developers are taking some market conditions for granted. There is a lot of variables in our nation's economy that are financially unsustainable for the long term. Only so many people can afford to buy a McMansion these days.

This kind of news reminds me of the mid 2000's when lots of people were getting suckered into paying top dollar for homes built way out in the "exhurbs" and financing them with adjustable rate mortgages. "Oh don't worry, you'll able to flip this house for even more money before your mortgage rate changes!"

There's a bunch of young adults who can't afford to move out of their parents' homes and make rent on an apartment. They gotta get one or more roommates. I'm worried this situation could dramatically worsen. I already own my own home, but I have other "selfish" concerns -like whether or not Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid will even still exist 20 or so years from now when I'm eligible to retire and start drawing benefits. It takes so and such large of a tax base to prevent those programs from going completely insolvent. That means having enough young adults who can afford to buy their own homes, get married, have kids and all that good stuff, including contributing to the tax base. A planned community built on speculation depends greatly on having enough young adult customers.


--- Quote from: Max Rockatansky ---That will certainly help, but I-11 is one those things Iíll believe is going to happen when shovels are in the ground.  That whole course west of the White Tank Mountains makes zero sense as far as providing a Vegas-Phoenix link.
--- End quote ---

Bare minimum, I-11 should be routed down US-60 to at least the Loop 303 corridor then go down to I-10. Routing it way out past the White Tanks and Sun Valley Parkway doesn't make a lick of sense. The vast majority of Las Vegas to Phoenix traffic will stay on US-60.

If this 300,000 person residential development actually succeeds then, yes, a secondary 3 digit Interstate from Wickenburg straight down to I-10 might make sense. But it doesn't cancel out the need for a direct Phoenix-Vegas Interstate.

Max Rockatansky:
The irony for me in all this real estate speculation is that it mirrors what happened during the previous bubble in Metro Phoenix.  At least back then the homes being built werenít stuffed behind a presently impassable mountain range and had actual planned access waiting to be developed.  Paint me a skeptic, but Iíve been hearing this speculation regarding Buckeye going through a boom like this since I was 18 and it still hasnít happened.  The city of Buckeye has about 392 square miles of land, much of it is open desert west of the White Tanks with close to zero inhabitants. 

This development is over 30 miles on I-10 to get from AZ 85 east to downtown Phoenix, who is this community going to actually serve?  If this was a retirement community like one of the many Sun City variants that would be one thing.  There is no way in hell 300,000 people from working class ages are going to move west of the White Tank Mountains. 

I really think that I made best possible choice for myself leaving Phoenix in 2013.  When the Metro Area has about 3,000,000 residents things were great and real estate prices were good.  Now to get an affordable home around Phoenix you have to live in the sticks and potentially drive an hour or more on a commute, no thanks.

Regarding I-11 you hit on the same route I preferred in the earlier threads on the topic.

kernals12:

--- Quote from: Bobby5280 on October 31, 2022, 06:27:19 PM ---A planned community of 300,000 home-buying customers? It sounds to me like some developers are taking some market conditions for granted. There is a lot of variables in our nation's economy that are financially unsustainable for the long term. Only so many people can afford to buy a McMansion these days.

This kind of news reminds me of the mid 2000's when lots of people were getting suckered into paying top dollar for homes built way out in the "exhurbs" and financing them with adjustable rate mortgages. "Oh don't worry, you'll able to flip this house for even more money before your mortgage rate changes!"

There's a bunch of young adults who can't afford to move out of their parents' homes and make rent on an apartment. They gotta get one or more roommates. I'm worried this situation could dramatically worsen. I already own my own home, but I have other "selfish" concerns -like whether or not Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid will even still exist 20 or so years from now when I'm eligible to retire and start drawing benefits. It takes so and such large of a tax base to prevent those programs from going completely insolvent. That means having enough young adults who can afford to buy their own homes, get married, have kids and all that good stuff, including contributing to the tax base. A planned community built on speculation depends greatly on having enough young adult customers.


--- Quote from: Max Rockatansky ---That will certainly help, but I-11 is one those things Iíll believe is going to happen when shovels are in the ground.  That whole course west of the White Tank Mountains makes zero sense as far as providing a Vegas-Phoenix link.
--- End quote ---

Bare minimum, I-11 should be routed down US-60 to at least the Loop 303 corridor then go down to I-10. Routing it way out past the White Tanks and Sun Valley Parkway doesn't make a lick of sense. The vast majority of Las Vegas to Phoenix traffic will stay on US-60.

If this 300,000 person residential development actually succeeds then, yes, a secondary 3 digit Interstate from Wickenburg straight down to I-10 might make sense. But it doesn't cancel out the need for a direct Phoenix-Vegas Interstate.

--- End quote ---
Phoenix is forecast to add 2.5 million people in the next 30 years. I think a community this size can succeed. Just look at Irvine or The Woodlands

Bobby5280:
Irvine and The Woodlands don't broil in the Summer like that part of Arizona. Water supply isn't much of a tough issue in the Woodlands (but that area of the Houston metro is expensive as hell).

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