News:

Thanks to everyone for the feedback on what errors you encountered from the forum database changes made in Fall 2023. Let us know if you discover anymore.

Main Menu

Tropical cyclone tracking thread

Started by CNGL-Leudimin, May 07, 2015, 11:08:01 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

formulanone

Quote from: cabiness42 on November 10, 2020, 04:51:47 PM
Quote from: CNGL-Leudimin on November 10, 2020, 04:39:14 PM
Θ (uppercase since I start a sentence) is now fully tropical, and thus 2020 is now per my reckoning (a bit later than NHC's since as you know I don't recognize subtropical storms) the year in which more tropical storms have formed in the Atlantic. It is almost a hurricane as well, and is heading towards... me!

At what angle is theta approaching?

[ Hypotenuse has joined the chat ]


1995hoo

Iota is now a Category 5. Looks like its track is slightly further south than where Eta hit Nicaragua, but it's still going to be a huge mess affecting substantially the same area.
"You know, you never have a guaranteed spot until you have a spot guaranteed."
—Olaf Kolzig, as quoted in the Washington Times on March 28, 2003,
commenting on the Capitals clinching a playoff spot.

"That sounded stupid, didn't it?"
—Kolzig, to the same reporter a few seconds later.

US71

Quote from: 1995hoo on November 16, 2020, 09:58:37 AM
Iota is now a Category 5. Looks like its track is slightly further south than where Eta hit Nicaragua, but it's still going to be a huge mess affecting substantially the same area.

First Cat 5 of the season, apparently.
Like Alice I Try To Believe Three Impossible Things Before Breakfast

cl94

Quote from: US71 on November 16, 2020, 01:19:15 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on November 16, 2020, 09:58:37 AM
Iota is now a Category 5. Looks like its track is slightly further south than where Eta hit Nicaragua, but it's still going to be a huge mess affecting substantially the same area.

First Cat 5 of the season, apparently.

First Cat 5 that was designated as such when the storm was ongoing. I fully expect Laura and Eta to be revised to 5s in the post-season analysis.
Please note: All posts represent my personal opinions and do not represent those of my employer or any of its partner agencies.

Travel Mapping (updated weekly)

US 89

Quote from: cl94 on November 16, 2020, 04:08:07 PM
Quote from: US71 on November 16, 2020, 01:19:15 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on November 16, 2020, 09:58:37 AM
Iota is now a Category 5. Looks like its track is slightly further south than where Eta hit Nicaragua, but it's still going to be a huge mess affecting substantially the same area.

First Cat 5 of the season, apparently.

First Cat 5 that was designated as such when the storm was ongoing. I fully expect Laura and Eta to be revised to 5s in the post-season analysis.

Ehhh I don't think Laura will be revised quite to category 5. Operationally it was assessed at 150 mph, and I do expect to see an increase to 155...but I think 160 is just a bit too far given the data that was collected by the Hurricane Hunter planes that night.

Eta on the other hand has a stronger case for a cat 5 post-season upgrade.

kenarmy

When are they going to finish? I think Gamma was briefly a hurricane and Zeta was a cat 3.
Just a reminder that US 6, 49, 50, and 98 are superior to your fave routes :)


EXTEND 206 SO IT CAN MEET ITS PARENT.

WillWeaverRVA

Quote from: kenarmy on February 14, 2021, 12:26:19 AM
When are they going to finish? I think Gamma was briefly a hurricane and Zeta was a cat 3.

Considering the high number of high-impact tropical cyclones in 2020, it will probably be a while.
Will Weaver
WillWeaverRVA Photography | Twitter

"But how will the oxen know where to drown if we renumber the Oregon Trail?" - NE2

CNGL-Leudimin

A few days ago cyclone Faraji in the South-West Indian dissipated. It briefly became the first Category 5-equivalent cyclone in 2021. At least it stayed away from land. To date no Very Intense Tropical Cyclone (the highest category in the scale used by Météo-France in Reunion) has made landfall at that intensity.
Supporter of the construction of several running gags, including I-366 with a speed limit of 85 mph (137 km/h) and the Hypotenuse.

Please note that I may mention "invalid" FM channels, i.e. ending in an even number or down to 87.5. These are valid in Europe.

US 89

Quote from: WillWeaverRVA on February 16, 2021, 01:16:03 PM
Quote from: kenarmy on February 14, 2021, 12:26:19 AM
When are they going to finish? I think Gamma was briefly a hurricane and Zeta was a cat 3.

Considering the high number of high-impact tropical cyclones in 2020, it will probably be a while.

Of the 31 Atlantic tropical cyclones in 2020, they've only completed the post-season reports for 13 of them as of this writing - and those were all short or low-impact systems. It's going to be a loooong time.

WillWeaverRVA

Quote from: US 89 on February 16, 2021, 02:43:38 PM
Quote from: WillWeaverRVA on February 16, 2021, 01:16:03 PM
Quote from: kenarmy on February 14, 2021, 12:26:19 AM
When are they going to finish? I think Gamma was briefly a hurricane and Zeta was a cat 3.

Considering the high number of high-impact tropical cyclones in 2020, it will probably be a while.

Of the 31 Atlantic tropical cyclones in 2020, they've only completed the post-season reports for 13 of them as of this writing - and those were all short or low-impact systems. It's going to be a loooong time.

Indeed. Of the 13 they've done, Hanna had the most impact, while Alpha had the most changes.
Will Weaver
WillWeaverRVA Photography | Twitter

"But how will the oxen know where to drown if we renumber the Oregon Trail?" - NE2

US 89

NOAA is apparently considering moving the start date of the Atlantic hurricane season from June 1 back to May 15:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/02/26/hurricane-season-lengthening-start-date/

CoreySamson

Quote from: US 89 on February 26, 2021, 12:03:56 PM
NOAA is apparently considering moving the start date of the Atlantic hurricane season from June 1 back to May 15:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/02/26/hurricane-season-lengthening-start-date/
I think that's a great idea considering all the storms recently before the month of June.
Buc-ee's and QuikTrip fanboy. Clincher of FM roads. Proponent of the TX U-turn.

My Route Log
My Clinches

Now on mobrule and Travel Mapping!

empirestate

Quote from: CoreySamson on February 26, 2021, 01:27:00 PM
Quote from: US 89 on February 26, 2021, 12:03:56 PM
NOAA is apparently considering moving the start date of the Atlantic hurricane season from June 1 back to May 15:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/02/26/hurricane-season-lengthening-start-date/
I think that's a great idea considering all the storms recently before the month of June.

Great, as if we don't have enough hurricanes during the existing season. While we're at it, why don't we move all the Deer Crossing signs, too?

[cueing up Rainier Wolfcastle "thats the joke" meme...]

bm7

The Greek alphabet names won't be used anymore. A second list of names will be used instead if the first 21 are used.

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-hurricane-committee-retires-tropical-cyclone-names-and-ends-use-of-greek

CNGL-Leudimin

Dorian from 2019 (thus should have been retired last year, but the meeting was cancelled) and Laura are now gone. Dexter and Leah are in. Strange there was only one name retired from 2020, considering how crazy it was (I'm not counting the Greeks). As I expected, Lorenzo becomes the second Category 5 hurricane since current lists began to escape retirement. And as said, there's now a seventh list to be used in place of the Greek alphabet, also in the Eastern Pacific. They should have stitched all six lists together and used them without regard to the year like they do in the Western Pacific.
Supporter of the construction of several running gags, including I-366 with a speed limit of 85 mph (137 km/h) and the Hypotenuse.

Please note that I may mention "invalid" FM channels, i.e. ending in an even number or down to 87.5. These are valid in Europe.

CoreySamson

Quote from: CNGL-Leudimin on March 18, 2021, 04:51:21 PM
Dorian from 2019 (thus should have been retired last year, but the meeting was cancelled) and Laura are now gone. Dexter and Leah are in. Strange there was only one name retired from 2020, considering how crazy it was (I'm not counting the Greeks). As I expected, Lorenzo becomes the second Category 5 hurricane since current lists began to escape retirement. And as said, there's now a seventh list to be used in place of the Greek alphabet, also in the Eastern Pacific. They should have stitched all six lists together and used them without regard to the year like they do in the Western Pacific.
Strangely enough, the only Greek names that were actually retired officially were Eta and Iota. I think Delta and Zeta both had a compelling case for retirement. Sally, too.
Buc-ee's and QuikTrip fanboy. Clincher of FM roads. Proponent of the TX U-turn.

My Route Log
My Clinches

Now on mobrule and Travel Mapping!

Alex

Quote from: bm7 on March 18, 2021, 12:33:17 AM
The Greek alphabet names won't be used anymore. A second list of names will be used instead if the first 21 are used.

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-hurricane-committee-retires-tropical-cyclone-names-and-ends-use-of-greek

QuoteNames beginning with Q, U, X, Y and Z are still not common enough or easily understood in local languages to be slotted into the rotating lists.

Yet the new Pacific supplemental lists include X, Y, Z storm names...   :hmm:

kenarmy

Quote from: Alex on March 18, 2021, 11:46:42 PM
Quote from: bm7 on March 18, 2021, 12:33:17 AM
The Greek alphabet names won't be used anymore. A second list of names will be used instead if the first 21 are used.

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-hurricane-committee-retires-tropical-cyclone-names-and-ends-use-of-greek

QuoteNames beginning with Q, U, X, Y and Z are still not common enough or easily understood in local languages to be slotted into the rotating lists.

Yet the new Pacific supplemental lists include X, Y, Z storm names...   :hmm:
Maybe it's another way of saying Americans are dumb  :D
Just a reminder that US 6, 49, 50, and 98 are superior to your fave routes :)


EXTEND 206 SO IT CAN MEET ITS PARENT.

Scott5114

Two of the names on that list are Xinia and Yariel, which are certainly not common in the United States. I have never heard them before.

A hurricane name needs to be something that is common enough in the places it might hit that people will be able to recognize it and easily pronounce it. I would say that it's somewhat important that it is not so novel or difficult to pronounce or spell that it distracts from the storm itself. I remember when Isaias was active, half the time there was a crack about how it was impossible to pronounce attached to it somewhere.
uncontrollable freak sardine salad chef

CoreySamson

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season outlook by Colorado State University has come out:

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2021-04-08-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook-april

They are predicting 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. With that in mind, here are my predictions for the season:

Upper Texas coast will probably get at least a Category 2 hurricane landfall. A major hurricane has not made landfall on the upper Texas coast since hurricane Alicia made landfall in 1983 (Ike was just a Cat 2, Harvey's winds struck the lower Texas coast and Rita and Laura made landfall in LA). Considering the return period for major hurricanes is about 30 years, we are due.

Mexico and Florida will probably also see hurricane landfalls.

I predict 20 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes in total.
Buc-ee's and QuikTrip fanboy. Clincher of FM roads. Proponent of the TX U-turn.

My Route Log
My Clinches

Now on mobrule and Travel Mapping!

WillWeaverRVA

Model guidance suggests a very intense typhoon could get painfully close to the Philippines late this weekend. Last year was quite destructive there, so this isn't something they need right now.
Will Weaver
WillWeaverRVA Photography | Twitter

"But how will the oxen know where to drown if we renumber the Oregon Trail?" - NE2

CNGL-Leudimin

Last year there was only one category 5-equivalent super typhoon (and it came pretty late in the year, at the end of October). Now it's only mid-April and we already have one, with a newcoming North Korean name (of all things), Surigae (known as Bising in the nearby Philippines). For some reason I really like to track Western Pacific storms with a name contributed to the lists by North Korea :sombrero:.
Supporter of the construction of several running gags, including I-366 with a speed limit of 85 mph (137 km/h) and the Hypotenuse.

Please note that I may mention "invalid" FM channels, i.e. ending in an even number or down to 87.5. These are valid in Europe.

CoreySamson

It looks like the Atlantic hurricane season may have 2 tropical storms before the season officially starts! The Texas coast is under the gun from Invest 91L, and Bermuda may be affected by Invest 90L, which could become Ana.

If Invest 91L develops, it will likely get the name Bill if Invest 90L holds together. Strangely, the last Bill was also a tropical storm that hit the Texas coast relatively early in the season.
Buc-ee's and QuikTrip fanboy. Clincher of FM roads. Proponent of the TX U-turn.

My Route Log
My Clinches

Now on mobrule and Travel Mapping!

ET21

Only Ana developed as a sub-tropical storm. The Texas wave moved inland, 0% chance now
The local weatherman, trust me I can be 99.9% right!
"Show where you're going, without forgetting where you're from"

Clinched:
IL: I-88, I-180, I-190, I-290, I-294, I-355, IL-390
IN: I-80, I-94
SD: I-190
WI: I-90, I-94
MI: I-94, I-196
MN: I-90

CoreySamson

#774
Cooler water and wind shear just ate Hurricane Elsa for lunch...
https://twitter.com/WXgage/status/1412595439375896579

Not sure if I've ever seen a hurricane deteriorate that fast over Gulf waters. Remarkably, the NHC just released a new forecast, and they're still calling it a hurricane. Ugliest-looking hurricane I've ever seen.
Buc-ee's and QuikTrip fanboy. Clincher of FM roads. Proponent of the TX U-turn.

My Route Log
My Clinches

Now on mobrule and Travel Mapping!



Opinions expressed here on belong solely to the poster and do not represent or reflect the opinions or beliefs of AARoads, its creators and/or associates.