2018 city population estimates

[golden eagle]

The US Census Bureau recently released their annual city population estimates for 2018. I'll list the top 10, but the rest can be seen here. Here's the top 10 (with 2010 figures in parentheses):

1 New York 8387748 (8175133)
2 Los Angeles 3990456 (3792621)
3 Chicago 2705994 (2695598)
4 Houston 2325502 (2099451)
5 Phoenix 1660272 (1445632)
6 Philadelphia 1584138 (1526006)
7 San Antonio 1532233 (1327407)
8 San Diego 1425976 (1307402)
9 Dallas 1345047 (1197816)
10 San Jose 1030119 (945942)

No change in the top ten from last year's estimates. Los Angeles is inching closer to 4 million people. It would be only the second city to ever achieve that feat.

The gap between Chicago and Houston has been cut drastically. I think it's very conceivable that within the next ten years, Houston will become the nation's third-largest city.

San Jose is #10, but Austin (#11) is nipping at its heels. At 964,254, Texas' capitol city is poised to become the next millionaire city. Elsewhere outside the top ten, Jacksonville top the 900k mark. However, #13 Fort Worth (895,008) and #14 Columbus (892,533) and #15 San Francisco (883,305) are giving Florida's largest city a run at its money. Charlotte at #16 (872,498) could make a run at the top ten in the near future.

Some other notables: Detroit has fallen to #23. Memphis, once a top 20 city, has fallen to #26.
Cleveland has fallen out of the top 50.

Shortly, I will post some interest state results in the replies.

[golden eagle]

Some state results I found interesting (get more results here):

ALABAMA
Birmingham (estimated 209880, down from 212,237) is still the state's largest city, but I believe it's in danger of losing that status. #2 Montgomery (198,218) is in danger of slipping down, as Huntsville has now exactly 900 fewer people than Montgomery. Within 5-10 years, Huntsville will be Alabama's biggest city, though Birmingham will be the largest metro still.

ARKANSAS
Little Rock (197,881) will be #1 for the foreseeable future, but the real fun is the cities ranked below it. #2 Fort Smith has slowly risen to 87,845 (up from 86,209), but #3 Fayetteville (86,751, up from 73,580) and #4 Springdale (both part of the booming Northwest Arkansas region) are quickly rising. Even #5 Jonesboro (76,990, up from 67,263) is getting in on the action. Two other NWA cities, Bentonville and Rogers, are also growing very rapidly. Add in Conway (near Little Rock), Fort Smith may not be in the top five of Arkansas cities in the very near future.

INDIANA
Not long ago, Gary was the second largest city in the state. Due to many issues (primarily de-industrialization), Gary has now fallen to #9. Other growing cities like Lafayette and Noblesville) could send Gary below the top ten. How the mighty have fallen.

[Flint1979]

I know that in Michigan Sterling Heights and Warren are neck-and-neck in population and they border each other in Metro Detroit. Both have around a 130,000 people. Flint used to be the second largest city in the state now I believe it's 7th or 8th.

[thspfc]

Kenosha is Wisconsin's fourth city to hit 100k, and could pass Green Bay for 3rd largest if trends continue. Appleton is quickly gaining on Racine for the 5 spot at around 75k, and Waukesha isn't far behind, meaning that Racine could fall as far as 7th soon. Eau Claire recently passed Oshkosh (I think in 2016 or 17) for 8th.

[Flint1979]

Some state results I found interesting (get more results here):

ALABAMA
Birmingham (estimated 209880, down from 212,237) is still the state's largest city, but I believe it's in danger of losing that status. #2 Montgomery (198,218) is in danger of slipping down, as Huntsville has now exactly 900 fewer people than Montgomery. Within 5-10 years, Huntsville will be Alabama's biggest city, though Birmingham will be the largest metro still.

ARKANSAS
Little Rock (197,881) will be #1 for the foreseeable future, but the real fun is the cities ranked below it. #2 Fort Smith has slowly risen to 87,845 (up from 86,209), but #3 Fayetteville (86,751, up from 73,580) and #4 Springdale (both part of the booming Northwest Arkansas region) are quickly rising. Even #5 Jonesboro (76,990, up from 67,263) is getting in on the action. Two other NWA cities, Bentonville and Rogers, are also growing very rapidly. Add in Conway (near Little Rock), Fort Smith may not be in the top five of Arkansas cities in the very near future.

INDIANA
Not long ago, Gary was the second largest city in the state. Due to many issues (primarily de-industrialization), Gary has now fallen to #9. Other growing cities like Lafayette and Noblesville) could send Gary below the top ten. How the mighty have fallen.

For Gary US Steel went from 30,000 employees in 1970 to 6,000 employees in 1990. Similar to how Flint, Michigan went from 80,000 GM workers in 1978 to around 5,000 today.

[texaskdog]

Problem with cities is many have suburbs...is there an MSA list? 

[golden eagle]

Problem with cities is many have suburbs...is there an MSA list?

Somewhere on the site.

[golden eagle]

TENNESSEE
In addition to being the capitol city, Nashville recently became the state's largest city, and unless Memphis changes its fortunes around, Nashville may never relinquish this distinction for years to come. Knoxville is in a distant third, but Chattanooga is gaining on them. But Chattanooga and Knoxville cannot rest easily because Clarksville and Murfreesboro, both near Nashville, are quickly rising among the ranks. Within the next 20 years, I expect them both to be top-four cities in Tennessee.

[Beltway]

The US Census Bureau recently released their annual city population estimates for 2018. I'll list the top 10, but the rest can be seen here. Here's the top 10 (with 2010 figures in parentheses):
1 New York 8387748 (8175133)
2 Los Angeles 3990456 (3792621)
3 Chicago 2705994 (2695598)
4 Houston 2325502 (2099451)
5 Phoenix 1660272 (1445632)
6 Philadelphia 1584138 (1526006)
7 San Antonio 1532233 (1327407)
8 San Diego 1425976 (1307402)
9 Dallas 1345047 (1197816)
10 San Jose 1030119 (945942)

Philadelphia had just over 2 million in 1950 and 1960, and was the 4th largest city.

I think that New York, Los Angeles and Chicago have been 1, 2 and 3 respectively since the 1920s.  Interesting that these cities are actually growing again.

[golden eagle]

The US Census Bureau recently released their annual city population estimates for 2018. I'll list the top 10, but the rest can be seen here. Here's the top 10 (with 2010 figures in parentheses):
1 New York 8387748 (8175133)
2 Los Angeles 3990456 (3792621)
3 Chicago 2705994 (2695598)
4 Houston 2325502 (2099451)
5 Phoenix 1660272 (1445632)
6 Philadelphia 1584138 (1526006)
7 San Antonio 1532233 (1327407)
8 San Diego 1425976 (1307402)
9 Dallas 1345047 (1197816)
10 San Jose 1030119 (945942)

Philadelphia had just over 2 million in 1950 and 1960, and was the 4th largest city.

I think that New York, Los Angeles and Chicago have been 1, 2 and 3 respectively since the 1920s.  Interesting that these cities are actually growing again.

Detroit was larger than Los Angeles until 1950. Philadelphia was larger than Los Angeles until
1960.

Chicago has been up and down in recent years. From 1980-1990, it lost about a quarter million people, gained about 100k back by 2000, but lost about 200k in 2010.

New York's population took a beating in the 70s, losing 10% of its population. The numbers started reversing itself in the 80s and haven't looked back since.

[bandit957]

It was about 1984 when Los Angeles passed Chicago. I remember seeing an article back when I was about middle school age.

I think that was also when Columbus passed Cleveland.

[Rothman]

The world turned upside down.

[SP Cook]

Problem with cities is many have suburbs...is there an MSA list? 

That is really the point.  While it is a nice trivia as to which city is ranked here or there, different laws in different states about expanding city lines (and many cities being on state lines) mean that the MSA population is really the much more important statistic from a planning or political perspective. 

Personally I find the TV DMA to be the best measure of a region's growth relative one to another. 

BTW, the major point the you  usually get out of census estimates is just how wrong they are when the actual count is done in two year.  Much like political polls.

[bandit957]

A ranking of metropolitan areas might seem more accurate. Cleveland basically has fixed boundaries, but Columbus was able to annex all over the place. Cities in Texas can also annex, but in New England, they can't.

It's less common for cities to deannex, though I think Memphis is deannexing that huge undeveloped area on the southwest.

The problem with metropolitan areas though is that parts of them seem to be not really what people would consider part of the city that they are centered on. Is northern Kentucky part of Cincinnati or not? Should the census bureau just rank places that are city-sized but not necessarily coterminous with actual ctiies (like how they do CDP's for unincorporated areas)?

[bandit957]

Personally I find the TV DMA to be the best measure of a region's growth relative one to another.

Some of those DMA definitions are downright goofy.

For years, I've been working on systems to try to identify DMA-like areas for radio, but I've never really come up with anything accurate. I planned on working on it some later today.

[kevinb1994]

Problem with cities is many have suburbs...is there an MSA list? 

That is really the point.  While it is a nice trivia as to which city is ranked here or there, different laws in different states about expanding city lines (and many cities being on state lines) mean that the MSA population is really the much more important statistic from a planning or political perspective. 

Personally I find the TV DMA to be the best measure of a region's growth relative one to another. 

BTW, the major point the you  usually get out of census estimates is just how wrong they are when the actual count is done in two year.  Much like political polls.

Please don't insert politics into any discussion on here. Thank you.

[Flint1979]

I know the city of Detroit has fallen to 23rd at one time the 4th largest city in the country. Detroit at one time had 1.8 million people, today it's a little over 600,000. Now the metro area has more people today than it did when Detroit was at its peak population which is still at least the 12th largest metro area.

[Max Rockatansky]

I know the city of Detroit has fallen to 23rd at one time the 4th largest city in the country. Detroit at one time had 1.8 million people, today it's a little over 600,000. Now the metro area has more people today than it did when Detroit was at its peak population which is still at least the 12th largest metro area.

Detroit is the poster child for mid-20th century urban sprawl.  Nobody wanted to live in the city past the 1950s.  Even though the Metro Area is still large it's growth has largely gone into stagnation. 

[Flint1979]

I know the city of Detroit has fallen to 23rd at one time the 4th largest city in the country. Detroit at one time had 1.8 million people, today it's a little over 600,000. Now the metro area has more people today than it did when Detroit was at its peak population which is still at least the 12th largest metro area.

Detroit is the poster child for mid-20th century urban sprawl.  Nobody wanted to live in the city past the 1950s.  Even though the Metro Area is still large it's growth has largely gone into stagnation.

That's pretty true everyone that stayed simply couldn't get out. Now the inner ring suburbs are the same way the city is. The metro area isn't really gaining any population but it's not losing much either.  Now everyone out in Macomb County north of M-59 is where they're moving. Like Shelby Township and Macomb Township.

[Eth]

Problem with cities is many have suburbs...is there an MSA list? 

It does skew things a bit, yeah. While Georgia's top six by population (Atlanta, Augusta, Columbus, Macon, Savannah, Athens) are core cities, numbers 7, 8, 9, 10, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, and 20 are all various Atlanta suburbs, four of which were just incorporated this decade.

Meanwhile, Atlanta stands at just over 498,000 in the estimate, up about 6300 from the previous year. Since that estimate was on July 1 of last year, it's likely that the city is now finally over the 500,000 mark for the first time.

[Chris]

One of the more notable results from the city population estimates is that the strong growth of New York City since 2010 has abruptly turned into a significant decline (-77,000 compared to 2016, but still +223,000 since 2010).

[MikeTheActuary]

TENNESSEE
In addition to being the capitol city, Nashville recently became the state's largest city, and unless Memphis changes its fortunes around, Nashville may never relinquish this distinction for years to come. Knoxville is in a distant third, but Chattanooga is gaining on them. But Chattanooga and Knoxville cannot rest easily because Clarksville and Murfreesboro, both near Nashville, are quickly rising among the ranks. Within the next 20 years, I expect them both to be top-four cities in Tennessee.

However, if Tennessee still had its license plate numbering system based on the first numeric digit or two indicating county (1=largest, 2=2nd largest...), Shelby County would still have a comfortable margin of being county #1.

That being said, I hadn't appreciated that the Nashville metro area now has a population of 2 million.

[GaryV]

...Flint used to be the second largest city in the state ...

cough cough [Grand Rapids] cough.

[Flint1979]

...Flint used to be the second largest city in the state ...

cough cough [Grand Rapids] cough.

Yeah now it is. Flint's 1960 population was 196,940, GR's 1960 population was 177,313.

[DTComposer]

Personally I find the TV DMA to be the best measure of a region's growth relative one to another.

Some of those DMA definitions are downright goofy.

Agreed. DMAs are problematic for comparing urban/metro areas since physical geography comes into play (especially in the West) - where broadcast signals reach (or used to reach), and spacing/distribution of cities large enough to support network TV stations. No one would ever consider Burns, OR to be any part of the Portland metro/urban area/sphere of influence, but it's in the Portland DMA.

One of the more notable results from the city population estimates is that the strong growth of New York City since 2010 has abruptly turned into a significant decline (-77,000 compared to 2016, but still +223,000 since 2010).

This to me points up the un-reliability of the Census estimates. The original 2017 estimate for New York was 8,622,698. With the release of the 2018 data, they revised the 2017 number down to 8,438,271. So without explanation, they decided they were off by nearly 200,000 people last year.

It's not just the Census Bureau, though. States do their own estimates, which often vary significantly from Federal estimates. For example, California's estimates in the 1990s were consistently higher than the Census Bureau's, and when the 2000 Census data was released, the results tracked much closer to what the state had been estimating. This was reversed in the 2000s; the Census estimates were closer to tracking the 2010 numbers than the state estimates.

Even after each Census, localities have the opportunity to challenge the results, and often result in counts changing by thousands of people.

In short, they're just estimates, and should all be taken with a grain of salt.