If Hurricane Sandy had come south: the dramatic storm surge scenario for D.C.

Started by cpzilliacus, November 01, 2012, 03:51:30 PM

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cpzilliacus

Washington Post: If Hurricane Sandy had come south: the dramatic storm surge scenario for Washington, D.C.

QuoteWhat if Hurricane Sandy, and its massive storm surge, had tracked 300 miles further south, making landfall near Virginia Beach instead of Atlantic City?

QuoteIn such a scenario, assuming the storm continued tracking inland to the south, the storm's wind and waves would have piled water into the Chesapeake Bay, forcing a massive surge up the Potomac River, inundating low lying areas of Washington, D.C.
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agentsteel53

would it have elegantly wiped out the criminal underclass?

how vulnerable are white marble buildings and three-piece suits to flooding?
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1995hoo

There's a nor'easter forecast for next week, apparently. We all may not be done with flooding and storm damage.
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cpzilliacus

Quote from: agentsteel53 on November 01, 2012, 04:05:28 PM
would it have elegantly wiped out the criminal underclass?

Like the individuals charged by the District of Columbia's municipal police department in this story?

No.

Quote from: agentsteel53 on November 01, 2012, 04:05:28 PM
how vulnerable are white marble buildings and three-piece suits to flooding?

Some of the buildings and national monuments, including the Lincoln and Jefferson Memorials, are vulnerable, as are some of the Smithsonian Institution buildings along the National Mall.  National Airport and the Pentagon might also be vulnerable to flooding.  And there's the matter of Joint Base Anacostia Bolling, located directly across the Potomac River from the airport, home to some very important components of the Department of Defense.

Remember that much of what is now the Monumental Core of Washington, D.C. was once a swamp. 
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Beltway

Quote from: cpzilliacus on November 01, 2012, 03:51:30 PM
Washington Post: If Hurricane Sandy had come south: the dramatic storm surge scenario for Washington, D.C.

QuoteWhat if Hurricane Sandy, and its massive storm surge, had tracked 300 miles further south, making landfall near Virginia Beach instead of Atlantic City?

QuoteIn such a scenario, assuming the storm continued tracking inland to the south, the storm's wind and waves would have piled water into the Chesapeake Bay, forcing a massive surge up the Potomac River, inundating low lying areas of Washington, D.C.
Seriously, D.C. is over 250 miles by water from the Atlantic Ocean, and the last 50 miles is rather narrow by sea standards.  Is there any real science behind the theory that a hurricane storm surge could make it that far up the river?  It would be fighting the flow of the river all the way.

The flooding they cited from TS Isabel in 2003 was from rainfall-induced flooding from upstream, as I recall.  The Potomac River is vulnerable to that kind of flooding.  TS Agnes in 1972 caused flooding that rose above the banks for 1-1/2 blocks into Old Town Alexandria (we lived there then a block away from that).  But that kind of flooding is from rainfall into the watershed that drains into the river upstream of the D.C. area.
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agentsteel53

Quote from: Beltway on November 01, 2012, 05:53:04 PM
Seriously, D.C. is over 250 miles by water from the Atlantic Ocean, and the last 50 miles is rather narrow by sea standards.  Is there any real science behind the theory that a hurricane storm surge could make it that far up the river?  It would be fighting the flow of the river all the way.

the storm itself could head up Chesapeake Bay and not lose strength nearly as much as if it were heading over dry land.
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Beltway

Quote from: agentsteel53 on November 01, 2012, 05:55:22 PM
Quote from: Beltway on November 01, 2012, 05:53:04 PM
Seriously, D.C. is over 250 miles by water from the Atlantic Ocean, and the last 50 miles is rather narrow by sea standards.  Is there any real science behind the theory that a hurricane storm surge could make it that far up the river?  It would be fighting the flow of the river all the way.

the storm itself could head up Chesapeake Bay and not lose strength nearly as much as if it were heading over dry land.

That is true about the wind speeds, but storm surge is a different issue.
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jwolfer

Quote from: Beltway on November 01, 2012, 05:53:04 PM
Quote from: cpzilliacus on November 01, 2012, 03:51:30 PM
Washington Post: If Hurricane Sandy had come south: the dramatic storm surge scenario for Washington, D.C.

QuoteWhat if Hurricane Sandy, and its massive storm surge, had tracked 300 miles further south, making landfall near Virginia Beach instead of Atlantic City?

QuoteIn such a scenario, assuming the storm continued tracking inland to the south, the storm's wind and waves would have piled water into the Chesapeake Bay, forcing a massive surge up the Potomac River, inundating low lying areas of Washington, D.C.
Seriously, D.C. is over 250 miles by water from the Atlantic Ocean, and the last 50 miles is rather narrow by sea standards.  Is there any real science behind the theory that a hurricane storm surge could make it that far up the river?  It would be fighting the flow of the river all the way.

The flooding they cited from TS Isabel in 2003 was from rainfall-induced flooding from upstream, as I recall.  The Potomac River is vulnerable to that kind of flooding.  TS Agnes in 1972 caused flooding that rose above the banks for 1-1/2 blocks into Old Town Alexandria (we lived there then a block away from that).  But that kind of flooding is from rainfall into the watershed that drains into the river upstream of the D.C. area.


I would think that DC would need lots of rain to induce massive flooding.  The Tidal Surge woudl block to outflow of the Chesapeake so massive amounts of rain couldn't drain.  You would not have the ocean storm surge like in NYC.

I dont think that that part of the Potmac is even brackish not the problems associated with salt water

cpzilliacus

Quote from: jwolfer on November 02, 2012, 09:53:49 AM
I would think that DC would need lots of rain to induce massive flooding.  The Tidal Surge woudl block to outflow of the Chesapeake so massive amounts of rain couldn't drain.  You would not have the ocean storm surge like in NYC.

There was plenty of flooding in D.C. in the aftermath of Hurricane Agnes (June 1972).  That was due to massive rainfall, not a storm surge.

Quote from: jwolfer on November 02, 2012, 09:53:49 AM
I dont think that that part of the Potmac is even brackish not the problems associated with salt water

The "tidal" Potomac River starts (in theory) at the Tidal Basin, just north of I-395 (14th Street Bridge complex). 

Traditionally, the brackish part of the river (again, in theory) starts at about I-95 (Wilson Bridge), though that varies depending on how much flow the river is getting from points upstream (and how much is diverted for drinking water by three large intakes upstream from Great Falls, and one standby intake at Brookmont between I-495 (American Legion Bridge) and the Chain Bridge.
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