Coronavirus pandemic

[Bruce]

I don't think a vaccine nor treatment is being worked on.

Where's your evidence?

The Milken Institute has a list of 190 vaccine studies currently in progress. Three of them (AstraZeneca/Oxford, CanSino, and Moderna/NIAID) have moved into Phase II trials that will last until the end of the year.

A viable vaccine takes a long time to develop, so don't expect daily updates. But it is happening, and has been in progress since the first vaccine trials began in Seattle in mid-March.

[Max Rockatansky]

I don't think a vaccine nor treatment is being worked on.

Where's your evidence?

The Milken Institute has a list of 190 vaccine studies currently in progress. Three of them (AstraZeneca/Oxford, CanSino, and Moderna/NIAID) have moved into Phase II trials that will last until the end of the year.

A viable vaccine takes a long time to develop, so don't expect daily updates. But it is happening, and has been in progress since the first vaccine trials began in Seattle in mid-March.

Isn't there over half a dozen vaccines currently in any level of trial phases?  Given we're talking a slow mutating Coronavirus it's only likely a matter of time before at least one viable vaccine is fully approved.  The notion of world wide distribution or requiring a populace to get it are other matters all together. 

[Duke87]

I don't think a vaccine nor treatment is being worked on.

Where's your evidence?

For that matter, where's your motive? Why would no one be working on either of these things?

[stormwatch7721]

For what I'm concerned, The vaccine might not work enough.

[Scott5114]

CanSino

Sounds like something you'd call a vending machine that may or may not dispense the beverage you paid for.

[Max Rockatansky]

For what I'm concerned, The vaccine might not work enough.

Based off of?

[Brian556]

Most of these "shortages" were just spikes in demand that production had to catch up on. The toilet paper one was particularly vexing to solve because the production capacity was there, but set up to make that sandpaper stuff they put in commercial buildings, presumably because managers are afraid if they put actual toilet paper in there, people will spend all day shitting instead of working? I don't know.

I have IBS, so I use the restroom at work more than the average person. At least at my last two employers, I have not had any issues with their toilet paper. I cant tell a difference between it and the Angel Soft that I use at home.

Paper towels are another story. Target was using Scott, which is pretty good, when I started there. Then they switched to Cascade. Their paper towels were useless, and would not absorb anything. This made cleaning up minor spills difficult, and meant that we would have to go get the mop more often than before

[Roadgeekteen]

Deaths starting to go up in Florida:

https://www.foxnews.com/health/florida-reports-record-high-coronavirus-deaths-single-day

It's coming. Deaths lag behind cases.

[STLmapboy]

Deaths starting to go up in Florida:

https://www.foxnews.com/health/florida-reports-record-high-coronavirus-deaths-single-day

It's coming. Deaths lag behind cases.

America's been pretty good about deaths so far, at or below other countries (in stark contrast to the case rate).

[Scott5114]

Deaths starting to go up in Florida:

https://www.foxnews.com/health/florida-reports-record-high-coronavirus-deaths-single-day

It's coming. Deaths lag behind cases.

America's been pretty good about deaths so far, at or below other countries (in stark contrast to the case rate).

133,000 deaths is in no way pretty good. That is just under a quarter of the deaths worldwide. The US doesn't have anywhere near 25% of the world population.

[Bruce]

Deaths starting to go up in Florida:

https://www.foxnews.com/health/florida-reports-record-high-coronavirus-deaths-single-day

It's coming. Deaths lag behind cases.

America's been pretty good about deaths so far, at or below other countries (in stark contrast to the case rate).

The U.S. is second in terms of deaths per 100,000 residents (40.44), only behind the United Kingdom (67.08).

We're in the same neighborhood as Chile (35.10), Peru (34.80), Brazil (32.45), and Brazil (32.45).

The worst continental European nation is Russia at 7.37. That's a world apart from us.

[tradephoric]

It's undeniable that the UK was hit hard by this pandemic in terms of deaths, worse than the US.  Here's a rolling 7-day average of the daily confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people.

[tradephoric]

^Of course stats like this are all a numbers game.  If you compare per capita deaths in the UK to the Northeast region of the United States then the UK doesn't look so bad.

[CNGL-Leudimin]

CanSino

Sounds like something you'd call a vending machine that may or may not dispense the beverage you paid for.

For a Spanish speaker like me that sounds like someone you're tired of hearing.

[SEWIGuy]

For what I'm concerned, The vaccine might not work enough.

A vaccine even as good as the influenza vaccine would make a huge difference.

[kphoger]

Deaths starting to go up in Florida:

https://www.foxnews.com/health/florida-reports-record-high-coronavirus-deaths-single-day

It's coming. Deaths lag behind cases.

America's been pretty good about deaths so far, at or below other countries (in stark contrast to the case rate).

The U.S. is second in terms of deaths per 100,000 residents (40.44), only behind the United Kingdom (67.08).

We're in the same neighborhood as Chile (35.10), Peru (34.80), Brazil (32.45), and Brazil (32.45).

The worst continental European nation is Russia at 7.37. That's a world apart from us.

But what about deaths per positive case?  That's a more meaningful comparison to make.

[SEWIGuy]

Deaths starting to go up in Florida:

https://www.foxnews.com/health/florida-reports-record-high-coronavirus-deaths-single-day

It's coming. Deaths lag behind cases.

America's been pretty good about deaths so far, at or below other countries (in stark contrast to the case rate).

The U.S. is second in terms of deaths per 100,000 residents (40.44), only behind the United Kingdom (67.08).

We're in the same neighborhood as Chile (35.10), Peru (34.80), Brazil (32.45), and Brazil (32.45).

The worst continental European nation is Russia at 7.37. That's a world apart from us.

But what about deaths per positive case?  That's a more meaningful comparison to make.

That stat tells us how well we manage the case once we have a positive, but does nothing to show how poorly we are containing the virus in the first place.  Which is the root of the problem.

[kphoger]

Positive cases per total population = How well we're containing the virus.

Deaths per positive cases = How well we're managing cases.

At least, that's the way I look at it.  Deaths per total population is just a function of the other two things.

[kalvado]

Deaths starting to go up in Florida:

https://www.foxnews.com/health/florida-reports-record-high-coronavirus-deaths-single-day

It's coming. Deaths lag behind cases.

America's been pretty good about deaths so far, at or below other countries (in stark contrast to the case rate).

133,000 deaths is in no way pretty good. That is just under a quarter of the deaths worldwide. The US doesn't have anywhere near 25% of the world population.

Reported cases. That can make a lot of difference.

[tradephoric]

Positive cases per total population = How well we're containing the virus.

Deaths per positive cases = How well we're managing cases.

At least, that's the way I look at it.  Deaths per total population is just a function of the other two things.

Deaths per positive cases is largely a function of how much testing is being done.  The UK has a case fatality rate of 15.5% (44,650 deaths among 288,133 cases) because they have done much less testing than America which has a case fatality rate of only 4.4% (135,978 deaths among 3,235,926 cases).  The actual fatality rate of the virus is almost certainly below 1.0% when you consider all the people who actually got the virus and not just the confirmed cases through testing.   

[kalvado]

Positive cases per total population = How well we're containing the virus.

Deaths per positive cases = How well we're managing cases.

At least, that's the way I look at it.  Deaths per total population is just a function of the other two things.

Anything is subject to some bias. Better testing may mean more cases and fewer deaths per case.
Thing is, whatever happens on the front line should focus on helping individuals , not on validity of statistics....

[ftballfan]

I went to a place called Ford's Garage for dinner last week (the location northeast of Fishers, IN), and they had put up clear plastic screens between all the booths. This allowed them to open up all of the booths. The tables were still pretty far apart, as expected.

I also went a place called Texas Roadhouse (chain I hadn't heard of), and they also had clear plastic screens between the booths, but I don't know if this is part of their normal decor. Every other booth was also not being used, from what I could see.

A local restaurant in my hometown put plastic sheets between all of their booths and removed some of their tables, although they did put on a small addition during the closure, where they moved one of the tables to.

I saw that there might be a substantial increase in diseases of despair in the next few years, including alcoholism and opioid use disorder.

[J N Winkler]

But what about deaths per positive case?  That's a more meaningful comparison to make.

It is susceptible to several layers of sampling bias, including the amount of testing you do and the prevalence of covid-19 cases by age group.

Confirmed cases per unit of population is actually a pretty slippery measure.  I'd say that, for purposes of making comparisons across different jurisdictions, it begins to be reliable only if the following conditions are met:

*  Testing criteria are the same

*  Positive test percentage is about the same

*  Throughput in the testing system is quite large compared to the number of cases encountered (less likely to be true in Arizona, where about 25% are testing positive right now, than in Connecticut, where the positive test percentage is closer to 1%)

*  Effective measures are taken to avoid the development of pools of infection that are not visible to testing

There are quite a few things to think about in terms of throughput because, especially in the US with its patchwork healthcare system, it is very easy to create disincentives to get tested.  Early in the pandemic, there was widespread confusion about whether tests would be free, as well as severe bottlenecks on test availability.  Now it is easier to get tested, except in areas where cases are taking off (there are reports of hour-long waits at drive-thru centers in Arizona, at a time of year when daytime high temperatures are 100° F or more; in Sedgwick County, Kansas, you can expect to wait as long as two weeks for results if you do not report symptoms).  Criteria tend to change in time to respond to the underlying level of demand (Sedgwick County has now suspended testing of asymptomatic cases).  Many jurisdictions also access tests from multiple pools, often with strings attached that promote sampling bias and lead to results becoming available in a lumpy and not necessarily predictable fashion--for example, at various times during this crisis Kansas has had access to rapid tests (provided by the federal government) that can be used only for meatpacking workers, which is the main reason the statewide case count zoomed upward in May when outbreaks were detected at the meat plants in Ford, Finney, Seward, and Lyon Counties.

Many of these factors are not necessarily visible to the public.  Newspaper reporters try to do their jobs, but they don't have the information at first hand because they aren't sitting in the offices where it is coming in, and some of those responsible for managing the crisis in each jurisdiction deliberately stymie information requests, often because they view control of information to the public as an integral part of their response to the crisis.  (There are many tricks available for this under state open-records laws.  For example, in Pennsylvania the Right To Know Law allows agencies to build in 30-day delay just by claiming some of the information asked for is held by district offices.  The Kansas Open Records Act has a very long exemption list and some of the specific exemptions are vaguely defined.)  Some of the information that comes in is impressionistic and is reported in an opaque manner:  for example, in Sedgwick County free hospital capacity is reported as a rating (was Good with a green checkmark in the recent past, is now Moderate with a yellow stop sign and exclamation mark) solely on the basis of conversations the county manager has with administrators at the two major hospitals in Wichita.  To get an idea of where things are headed, the numbers can be less helpful than, for example, the fact that contact tracing is breaking down because there are now too many cases under investigation for the personnel available.

[webny99]

CanSino

Sounds like something you'd call a vending machine that may or may not dispense the beverage you paid for.

Yep, and you didn't even need to clarify - I would have assumed that anyways based on my experience with vending machines.

[SEWIGuy]

Positive cases per total population = How well we're containing the virus.

Deaths per positive cases = How well we're managing cases.

At least, that's the way I look at it.  Deaths per total population is just a function of the other two things.

Deaths per positive cases is largely a function of how much testing is being done.  The UK has a case fatality rate of 15.5% (44,650 deaths among 288,133 cases) because they have done much less testing than America which has a case fatality rate of only 4.4% (135,978 deaths among 3,235,926 cases).  The actual fatality rate of the virus is almost certainly below 1.0% when you consider all the people who actually got the virus and not just the confirmed cases through testing.   

That would mean four times as many people have the virus than have tested positive.  You really believe that?