NFL (2024 Season)

[webny99]

I wonder what the best upset of the season so far is. Either the Josh Allen game, the Lions beating the Vikings, or the Texans beating the Titans. Though none of those scorelines were as astonishing as the Saints' drubbing of the Packers way back in week 1.

My guess is it hasn't happened yet. The closer you get to the playoffs, the more fun a big upset is.

2019, for example, had to be Fins over Pats in Week 17.

Last year is tougher. Bengals over Steelers with Brandon Allen, maybe. Or Giants over Seahawks with Colt McCoy. Made funnier by the fact that because of this year's win with the Cardinals, at one point Colt McCoy was the only QB to have won a game in Seattle in both 2020 and 2021.  (no longer true after Russell Wilson beat the 49ers last week)

[thspfc]

Browns 20, Raiders 17
Patriots 16, Colts 14
Steelers 27, Titans 17
Bills 23, Panthers 6
Washington 20, Eagles 14
Jaguars 37, Texans 14
Cowboys 30, Giants 20
Cardinals 48, Lions 10
Dolphins 34, Jets 17
Broncos 31, Bengals 13
49ers 38, Falcons 22
Rams 35, Seahawks 27
Packers 26, Ravens 24
Buccaneers 38, Saints 3
Vikings 33, Bears 28

The gap between Baker and Case Keenum is, in my opinion, one of the smallest gaps between starting and backup quarterback for any team in the league. The only smaller ones are Fields and Dalton, Wilson and whoever the Jets backup is now, and the mess that the Panthers are in at QB.

Broncos/Bengals is my "I have no clue"  game of the week.

I seem to know when the Buccaneers are going to click - my only bad prediction for them was week 10 against Washington. This week, it's going to be a massacre for the ages. They'll get at least four sacks and four interceptions en route to a reversal of what the score was the last time these two teams played in Tampa.

[Max Rockatansky]

How come you all aren't talking more about Urban Meyer getting "kicked"  out of the head coaching position with the Jaguars?  Now buddy can take a night out whenever he needs it.

[Henry]

Urban Meyer's firing is further proof that college coaches really shouldn't be in the pros. Look at Billy Donovan who at one point coached the Thunder, but was later fired and is now trying again with the Bulls; or John Beilein, who didn't last even a full season with the Cavaliers; or Rick Pitino, who failed to restore the Celtics to their former glory a couple of decades ago.

No matter who the coach was, we all knew the Jaguars would suck this year, but Trevor Lawrence deserves better. A Joe Burrow-esque turnaround will not happen either, since the Jags don't know what the hell they're doing (though I'm not saying the Bengals do either, as their current positioning is a complete fluke).

[DenverBrian]

Aaaaaaaaaand Urban Meyer is finally gone about 6 weeks too late.

More like 10 weeks if you think the bar incident after Week 4 was the point of no return.

I've seen some online speculation that the Jags owner actually delayed Meyer's firing until after all the college HC slots were filled...just to ensure Meyer couldn't land.

[KCRoadFan]

Browns 20, Raiders 17
Patriots 16, Colts 14
Steelers 27, Titans 17
Bills 23, Panthers 6
Washington 20, Eagles 14
Jaguars 37, Texans 14
Cowboys 30, Giants 20
Cardinals 48, Lions 10
Dolphins 34, Jets 17
Broncos 31, Bengals 13
49ers 38, Falcons 22
Rams 35, Seahawks 27
Packers 26, Ravens 24
Buccaneers 38, Saints 3
Vikings 33, Bears 28

I see you left off Chiefs vs. Chargers tonight. What is your prediction?

Mine is 33-27 Chiefs in OT. Mahomes to Kelce for the winning touchdown.

[thspfc]

Browns 20, Raiders 17
Patriots 16, Colts 14
Steelers 27, Titans 17
Bills 23, Panthers 6
Washington 20, Eagles 14
Jaguars 37, Texans 14
Cowboys 30, Giants 20
Cardinals 48, Lions 10
Dolphins 34, Jets 17
Broncos 31, Bengals 13
49ers 38, Falcons 22
Rams 35, Seahawks 27
Packers 26, Ravens 24
Buccaneers 38, Saints 3
Vikings 33, Bears 28

I see you left off Chiefs vs. Chargers tonight. What is your prediction?

Mine is 33-27 Chiefs in OT. Mahomes to Kelce for the winning touchdown.

Thursday games make no sense. It could be 49-14 Chiefs, or it could be 49-14 Chargers. Honestly, when judging how good a team is, I tend to value Thursday games less than Sunday or Monday games.

[JayhawkCO]

Browns 20, Raiders 17
Patriots 16, Colts 14
Steelers 27, Titans 17
Bills 23, Panthers 6
Washington 20, Eagles 14
Jaguars 37, Texans 14
Cowboys 30, Giants 20
Cardinals 48, Lions 10
Dolphins 34, Jets 17
Broncos 31, Bengals 13
49ers 38, Falcons 22
Rams 35, Seahawks 27
Packers 26, Ravens 24
Buccaneers 38, Saints 3
Vikings 33, Bears 28

I see you left off Chiefs vs. Chargers tonight. What is your prediction?

Mine is 33-27 Chiefs in OT. Mahomes to Kelce for the winning touchdown.

Thursday games make no sense. It could be 49-14 Chiefs, or it could be 49-14 Chargers. Honestly, when judging how good a team is, I tend to value Thursday games less than Sunday or Monday games.

Case Keenum out now too.

[thspfc]

Browns 20, Raiders 17
Patriots 16, Colts 14
Steelers 27, Titans 17
Bills 23, Panthers 6
Washington 20, Eagles 14
Jaguars 37, Texans 14
Cowboys 30, Giants 20
Cardinals 48, Lions 10
Dolphins 34, Jets 17
Broncos 31, Bengals 13
49ers 38, Falcons 22
Rams 35, Seahawks 27
Packers 26, Ravens 24
Buccaneers 38, Saints 3
Vikings 33, Bears 28

I see you left off Chiefs vs. Chargers tonight. What is your prediction?

Mine is 33-27 Chiefs in OT. Mahomes to Kelce for the winning touchdown.

Thursday games make no sense. It could be 49-14 Chiefs, or it could be 49-14 Chargers. Honestly, when judging how good a team is, I tend to value Thursday games less than Sunday or Monday games.

Case Keenum out now too.

Well, it looks like this game is in serious jeopardy of being 2020'ed. Maybe the pandemic isn't over after all? (/insensitive joke) Anyways, I just looked up who the Browns' third stringer is. Nick Mullens. Who is 2nd all time in passing yards for a QB through their first 16 starts, trailing only Mahomes. So, the Browns have maybe the best third string QB in the league. FWIW, Mullens' first career start was against the Raiders in 2018, and he went 16/22 for 262 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs in a 34-3 victory, one of just four 49ers wins that season.

[NWI_Irish96]

At this point, I give it no better than 50/50 chance of finishing the season all the way through the Super Bowl.

[KCRoadFan]

Browns 20, Raiders 17
Patriots 16, Colts 14
Steelers 27, Titans 17
Bills 23, Panthers 6
Washington 20, Eagles 14
Jaguars 37, Texans 14
Cowboys 30, Giants 20
Cardinals 48, Lions 10
Dolphins 34, Jets 17
Broncos 31, Bengals 13
49ers 38, Falcons 22
Rams 35, Seahawks 27
Packers 26, Ravens 24
Buccaneers 38, Saints 3
Vikings 33, Bears 28

I see you left off Chiefs vs. Chargers tonight. What is your prediction?

Mine is 33-27 Chiefs in OT. Mahomes to Kelce for the winning touchdown.

Well, look at that! I was just one point off for both teams - turns out it was 34-28 Chiefs in OT, Mahomes to Kelce for the winning touchdown.

[thspfc]

At this point, I give it no better than 50/50 chance of finishing the season all the way through the Super Bowl.

*Scoffs*

Patrick Mahomes is really, really good. Chargers are too aggressive on 4th down. Chiefs offense is back to 2018-2020 form, and their defense has been top 3 in the league since the beginning of November. Don't know what more evidence there needs to be to prove that they're at least 2nd favorites for the Super Bowl after Tampa, and perhaps even above them.

[thspfc]

Browns 20, Raiders 17
Patriots 16, Colts 14
Steelers 27, Titans 17
Bills 23, Panthers 6
Washington 20, Eagles 14
Jaguars 37, Texans 14
Cowboys 30, Giants 20
Cardinals 48, Lions 10
Dolphins 34, Jets 17
Broncos 31, Bengals 13
49ers 38, Falcons 22
Rams 35, Seahawks 27
Packers 26, Ravens 24
Buccaneers 38, Saints 3
Vikings 33, Bears 28

I see you left off Chiefs vs. Chargers tonight. What is your prediction?

Mine is 33-27 Chiefs in OT. Mahomes to Kelce for the winning touchdown.

Well, look at that! I was just one point off for both teams - turns out it was 34-28 Chiefs in OT, Mahomes to Kelce for the winning touchdown.

Wow. I have made over 170 predictions this season. Only twice have I been closer than that in terms of the score - Bucs/Rams in week 3, and Packers/Bears in week 6. Yours was far more specific though. Well done.

[webny99]

At this point, I give it no better than 50/50 chance of finishing the season all the way through the Super Bowl.

50%? I'm pessimistic and I would have put it at 99.9% a few weeks ago and maybe 99.5% now. When you factor in that it was completed last year under much worse circumstances, plus the fact that most players are vaccinated and most cases are mild, it would take a shocking turn of events for the season not to be completed.

[webny99]

Chargers are too aggressive on 4th down.

They went from blowing games by being too conservative... to blowing games by being too aggressive. 
I get that you're going to need touchdowns to beat the Chiefs, but when you already have the lead? Take the points! They had three chances to kick FG's and came away with nothing. The third one was the worst, they almost certainly win in regulation if they kick the FG there.

Chiefs offense is back to 2018-2020 form, and their defense has been top 3 in the league since the beginning of November. Don't know what more evidence there needs to be to prove that they're at least 2nd favorites for the Super Bowl after Tampa, and perhaps even above them.

For the same reasons mentioned above, I felt like the Chiefs were extremely lucky to win that game. Their offense wasn't really clicking until the 4th quarter and OT, and the Chargers had endless chances to put the game away and blew it. So I'd like to see the Chiefs offense put up 30+ in regulation against someone other than the Raiders before I'm ready to crown them Super Bowl favorites. If anything, last night proved that they are beatable when their defense has a meh performance... the Chargers just blew it on 4th downs.

[JayhawkCO]

I disagree that the Chargers should have kicked the field goals.  In a multi billion dollar industry like options trading, you use small mathematical edges to make money.  In this multi billion dollar industry, you want them to go against probability? Seems very -EV.  What they did wrong on fourth down was execute poorly.  They have a 6'6" athletic QB and never tried a QB sneak.

[NWI_Irish96]

I disagree that the Chargers should have kicked the field goals.  In a multi billion dollar industry like options trading, you use small mathematical edges to make money.  In this multi billion dollar industry, you want them to go against probability? Seems very -EV.  What they did wrong on fourth down was execute poorly.  They have a 6'6" athletic QB and never tried a QB sneak.

Not specific to this game, but there are some very basic advantages that aren't getting exploited. I talked to a college friend of mine who is a HS coach. If they get to a 4th down and 1 (or less) the coach yells "black, black" and the entire team rushes to the line and quick snaps a QB sneak. Often times they get an offsides or too many men penalty. Most of the time they get an easy 4-5 yards against a defense that isn't set. In his years as coach, "Code Black" has only failed one out of 48 times. A couple of the smarter teams have caught on and burned timeouts, but then they take the time to re-evaluate the situation and still end up going for it most of the time.

[webny99]

I disagree that the Chargers should have kicked the field goals.  In a multi billion dollar industry like options trading, you use small mathematical edges to make money.  In this multi billion dollar industry, you want them to go against probability? Seems very -EV.  What they did wrong on fourth down was execute poorly.  They have a 6'6" athletic QB and never tried a QB sneak.

Not saying they should have kicked all the field goals. Just one was all they would've needed to win in regulation. I agree that the execution was poor as well, but I don't know, I feel like being aggressive in going for it and then having a bad play call makes the decision even more questionable. I think what's happening is blind confidence in "numbers and analytics" is fooling teams into thinking their chances are higher than they really are on a given play. It just seems inevitable that the more teams go for it on 4th down, the more success rates will drop.

[JayhawkCO]

I disagree that the Chargers should have kicked the field goals.  In a multi billion dollar industry like options trading, you use small mathematical edges to make money.  In this multi billion dollar industry, you want them to go against probability? Seems very -EV.  What they did wrong on fourth down was execute poorly.  They have a 6'6" athletic QB and never tried a QB sneak.

Not saying they should have kicked all the field goals. Just one was all they would've needed to win in regulation. I agree that the execution was poor as well, but I don't know, I feel like being aggressive in going for it and then having a bad play call makes the decision even more questionable. I think what's happening is blind confidence in "numbers and analytics" is fooling teams into thinking their chances are higher than they really are on a given play. It just seems inevitable that the more teams go for it on 4th down, the more success rates will drop.

Why do you say that last statement?  It's not like they're fake punting where doing it more will have other teams practicing against it more.  3rd and 1 is effectively the same play call as 4th and 1.  The odds of success are trackable because there are so many data points.  There is no real reason why it would become any less successful over time just because the down is different.

[thspfc]

Chargers are too aggressive on 4th down.

They went from blowing games by being too conservative... to blowing games by being too aggressive. 
I get that you're going to need touchdowns to beat the Chiefs, but when you already have the lead? Take the points! They had three chances to kick FG's and came away with nothing. The third one was the worst, they almost certainly win in regulation if they kick the FG there.

Chiefs offense is back to 2018-2020 form, and their defense has been top 3 in the league since the beginning of November. Don't know what more evidence there needs to be to prove that they're at least 2nd favorites for the Super Bowl after Tampa, and perhaps even above them.

For the same reasons mentioned above, I felt like the Chiefs were extremely lucky to win that game. Their offense wasn't really clicking until the 4th quarter and OT, and the Chargers had endless chances to put the game away and blew it. If anything, last night proved that they are beatable when their defense has a meh performance... the Chargers just blew it on 4th downs.

They gained almost 500 yards of total offense, scored 34 points, and won. Don't care when they scored most of their points.

Brandon Staley acting like a six year old playing Madden had something to do with it, for sure, but you still have to credit the Chiefs' defense for stopping LA on fourth down all those times, and forcing the fumble on the goal line.

So I'd like to see the Chiefs offense put up 30+ in regulation against someone other than the Raiders before I'm ready to crown them Super Bowl favorites.

Today I learned that completely discarding two full games - 1/7th of the season at this point for a team - is acceptable.

Week 1: W 33-29 vs Browns
Week 2: L 36-35 vs Ravens
Week 3: L 30-24 vs Chargers
Week 4: W 42-30 vs Eagles
Week 5: L 38-20 vs Bills
Week 6: W 31-13 vs Washington
Week 7: L 27-3 vs Titans
Week 8: W 20-17 vs Giants
Week 9: W 13-7 vs Packers
Week 10: W 41-14 vs Raiders
Week 11: W 19-9 vs Cowboys
Week 13: W 22-9 vs Broncos
Week 14: W 48-9 vs Raiders
Week 15: W 34-28 vs Chargers; 28/34 points in regulation

[thspfc]

I disagree that the Chargers should have kicked the field goals.  In a multi billion dollar industry like options trading, you use small mathematical edges to make money.  In this multi billion dollar industry, you want them to go against probability? Seems very -EV.  What they did wrong on fourth down was execute poorly.  They have a 6'6" athletic QB and never tried a QB sneak.

Would they have won the game if they kicked a field goal even one of those times?

[thspfc]

I'll answer that question: the answer is yes. They were clearly struggling to convert on 4th down. What they were doing was not working. Why did they keep doing it?

[thspfc]

I disagree that the Chargers should have kicked the field goals.  In a multi billion dollar industry like options trading, you use small mathematical edges to make money.  In this multi billion dollar industry, you want them to go against probability? Seems very -EV.  What they did wrong on fourth down was execute poorly.  They have a 6'6" athletic QB and never tried a QB sneak.

Not saying they should have kicked all the field goals. Just one was all they would've needed to win in regulation. I agree that the execution was poor as well, but I don't know, I feel like being aggressive in going for it and then having a bad play call makes the decision even more questionable. I think what's happening is blind confidence in "numbers and analytics" is fooling teams into thinking their chances are higher than they really are on a given play. It just seems inevitable that the more teams go for it on 4th down, the more success rates will drop.

Why do you say that last statement?  It's not like they're fake punting where doing it more will have other teams practicing against it more.  3rd and 1 is effectively the same play call as 4th and 1.  The odds of success are trackable because there are so many data points.  There is no real reason why it would become any less successful over time just because the down is different.

Yes, there is. Many teams use the opportunity of a 3rd and 1 to take a deep shot through the air, since the defense is expecting a run or shallow underneath pass. Defenses have adjusted to this, and now get burned less frequently over the top on 3rd and short. Nobody is going to be throwing it deep on 4th and 1 because of the low likelihood of a completion. One less thing for the defense to account for.

[webny99]

... It just seems inevitable that the more teams go for it on 4th down, the more success rates will drop.

Why do you say that last statement?  It's not like they're fake punting where doing it more will have other teams practicing against it more.  3rd and 1 is effectively the same play call as 4th and 1.  The odds of success are trackable because there are so many data points.  There is no real reason why it would become any less successful over time just because the down is different.

It could take years before we know for sure, but it sort of feels like that's what's happening. If offenses are having success doing one thing, it's only a matter of time before defenses find a way to respond. I think part of it is because teams are treating 4th and 1 just like 3rd and 1. I don't think they should! The stakes are way higher on 4th down, so the play call and execution on both sides becomes way more important. Historically speaking, that's probably partly why the data supports going for it: teams save their best play calls for those situations. But if you're going to treat it just like a normal play, the historical odds are probably artificially inflated. In other words, as the novelty and uniqueness of going for it on 4th down wears off, its effectiveness goes down.

There's also a situational aspect where sometimes it just feels like you're playing into the defense's hands by committing to being aggressive. I can't explain it very well, but it seems like there's some sort of intangible effect of knowing they have 4 chances to stop you instead of 3.

[webny99]

So I'd like to see the Chiefs offense put up 30+ in regulation against someone other than the Raiders before I'm ready to crown them Super Bowl favorites.

Today I learned that completely discarding two full games - 1/7th of the season at this point for a team - is acceptable.

The Raiders games count in the standings, but what the Raiders do defensively doesn't work against the Chiefs and all 31 other teams know it, so those games are not predictive. My point is that outside of the Raiders games, we haven't seen the Chiefs offense and defense both playing their best for a full game this season. They have the talent to play even better down the stretch, but I don't think they're Super Bowl favorites right now.