Farewell To Surburbia?

[un1]

This topic has been pretty popular at other sites so I shall make one here.

http://finance.yahoo.com/family-home/article/106732/Suburbia-R-I-P



The downturn has accomplished what a generation of designers and planners could not: it has turned back the tide of suburban sprawl. In the wake of the foreclosure crisis many new subdivisions are left half built and more established suburbs face abandonment. Cul-de-sac neighborhoods once filled with the sound of backyard barbecues and playing children are falling silent. Communities like Elk Grove, Calif., and Windy Ridge, N.C., are slowly turning into ghost towns with overgrown lawns, vacant strip malls and squatters camping in empty homes. In Cleveland alone, one of every 13 houses is now vacant, according to an article published Sunday in The New York Times magazine.

The demand for suburban homes may never recover, given the long-term prospects of energy costs for commuting and heating, and the prohibitive inefficiencies of low-density construction. The whole suburban idea was founded on disposable spending and the promise of cheap gas. Without them, it may wither. A study by the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech predicts that by 2025 there will be as many as 22 million unwanted large-lot homes in suburban areas.

The suburb has been a costly experiment. Thirty-five percent of the nation's wealth has been invested in building a drivable suburban landscape, according to Christopher Leinberger, an urban planning professor at the University of Michigan and visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution. James Howard Kunstler, author of "The Geography of Nowhere," has been saying for years that we can no longer afford suburbs. "If Americans think they've been grifted by Goldman Sachs and Bernie Madoff, wait until they find out what a swindle the so-called 'American Dream' of suburban life turns out to be," he wrote on his blog this week.

So what's to become of all those leafy subdivisions with their Palladian detailing and tasteful signage? Already low or middle-income families priced out of cities and better neighborhoods are moving into McMansions divided for multi-family use. Alison Arieff, who blogs for The New York Times, visited one such tract mansion that was split into four units, or "quartets," each with its own entrance, which is not unlike what happened to many stately homes in the 1930s. The difference, of course, is that the 1930s homes held up because they were made with solid materials, and today's spec homes are all hollow doors, plastic columns and faux stone facades.

There is also speculation that subdivision homes could be dismantled and sold for scrap now that a mini-industry for repurposed lumber and other materials has evolved over the last few years. Around the periphery of these discussions is the specter of the suburb as a ghost town patrolled by squatters and looters, as if Mad Max had come to the cul-de-sac.

If the suburb is a big loser in mortgage crisis episode, then who is the winner? Not surprisingly, the New Urbanists, a group of planners, developers and architects devoted to building walkable towns based on traditional designs, have interpreted the downturn as vindication of their plans for mixed-use communities where people can stroll from their homes to schools and restaurants.

Richard Florida, a Toronto business professor and author of "Who's Your City?: How the Creative Economy Is Making Where to Live the Most Important Decision of Your Life," argues that dense and diverse cities with "accelerated rates of urban metabolism" are the communities most likely to innovate their way through economic crisis. In an article published in this month's issue of The Atlantic, he posits that New York is at a relative advantage, despite losing a chunk of its financial engine, because the jostling proximity of architects, fashion designers, software writers and other creative types will reenergize its economy.

Copyrighted, Mansueto Ventures LLC. All rights reserved.

[mightyace]

While this article has some degree of truth to it, it is way too soon to call suburbia "dead."

IMHO The author and the people he cites are people who love cities and hate suburbs including elitists who want the average person to rent a place in the city rather than owning one in the suburbs.  The elitists would love to get "Joe six-pack" off the roads so they can have the roads to themselves.

[Chris]

I agree with mightyace, we will switch to electrical cars in the future, hybrids are just for the transistional period, which ought to reduce the cost of commuting. Energy for heating homes can be reduced by tightening building codes. I wouldn't count it to see more Manhattan-style cities in the U.S. soon.

[DrZoidberg]

There may be some truth to this, depending on the city.  Portland, OR...always a city that has observed a strict urban growth boundary to contain sprawl, has seen an exodus back to the city the last few years, really starting with the Pearl District, once a more industrial part of downtown Portland, getting revived and becoming a more "hoity toity" neighborhood.

SE Portland, and parts of NE are the next areas that will really boom over the next few years, while outlying areas like Hillsboro probably see a decline in housing.

Where I live, a town south of downtown Portland called Lake Oswego, may be considered a burb of Porrtland, but it really feels more like part of the city. Maybe it's just me.

[mightyace]

The part that I think is more likely to come to pass is the slowdown or stoppage of sprawl.  (or at least first)

The whole idea of most people living in or around cities is relatively new.  The population balance between urban and rural didn't shift to urban until sometime in the 20th century.

And, suburbia took several decades to build up.  If it is going to be dismantled, lets hope it take a few decades to do so or the economy will really go into the toilet.

[yanksfan6129]

I live in a suburb. Don't worry, they aren't going anywhere as long as the automobile and freeways exist.

[Stephane Dumas]

I agree with mightyace, we will switch to electrical cars in the future, hybrids are just for the transistional period, which ought to reduce the cost of commuting. Energy for heating homes can be reduced by tightening building codes. I wouldn't count it to see more Manhattan-style cities in the U.S. soon.

we could have also some alcohol powered cars as well as aglae powered cars   also commuters trains like AMT in Montreal or the GO Train in Toronto might became more popular to commute from the suburbs to downtown and vice-versa

[brad2971]

Just remember, folks, some of these same hoity-toity types were proclaiming the decline and fall of cities as recently as 20 years ago. Ironically, the policies that helped revive most US cities were proposed and implemented by the same sort of politicians those same hoity-toity folks despised then, and REALLY despise now.

Not that any Republican should expect thanks for being "tough on crime" enough for an outfit like Starbucks to benefit

[haljackey]

Sprawl is founded on completely unsustainable principles, and oh yes we are going to feel the consequences for a very long time.

Once the global economy recovers (which one of my professors said could take as many as 40 years), you're going to see fuel prices spike unlike anything we've ever seen before.  Not only will they hit the highest prices before the world economic slowdown in record time, they will continue to climb to unprecedented heights.  What happens to suburbia when fuel prices go up?  Well let me list just a few...

-Gasoline prices increase, making it more expensive to fuel your car.
-It will cost more to heat your home.
-Goods may cost more, with businesses taking most of the costs where it hurts to keep themselves competitive.  This means lower wages for staff, layoffs, etc..
-Food prices will skyrocket due to high transportation costs.  Imported goods will be significantly impacted, so an emphasis will be put on "buy local" goods to save money.  However in places where fresh produce must be imported in the winter months, only the very rich will be able to afford it.
-Tourism will fall as a whole worldwide.  Most, if not all airlines will go bankrupt.
-I could go on and on all day about this...

So, what can we do?  We need to stop sprawl now and invest in mass transit, and clean, renewable energy for cars.  By increasing the density of our cities, we can maximize the amount of farmland, which will be essential when "buy local" becomes substantially cheaper than goods trucked in from elsewhere.

This news isn't new.  People have been saying it for quite a while.  The short-term effects of sprawl may have been the "American Dream" for many people since the end of WWII, but its now the 21st century.  We need to be responsible for our actions and look at the long term consequences sprawl will have just like global warming/climate change and do our best to counter it.

Suburban areas is one thing, but sprawl/suburbia is another.  Its natural for cities to have some lower density areas around its edge, as long as it is controlled.  Large cities can have runaway sprawl that can chew through valuable, fertile farmland.  Once you pave paradise, you can never truly restore it to its former glory.

[Revive 755]

I don't see suburbia truly dying.  I agree that we will switch to electric cars when oil starts to run really short, or hits $200+/barrel and stays there.  I would also expect to see an increase in motorcycle usage for commuting.

As for freight movement when fuel cost skyrocket, the US will probably be regretting allowing so many useful railroad line to be pulled up, and many of the busier lines will probably be electrified.

[Alex]

I read the book Geography of Nowhere a few years ago. The author makes compelling statements about the sustainability of sprawl. Issues with sprawl will come to a head if/when peak oil comes to full fruition. We had a little taste of it last year with $4 gas prices nationwide.

One of the telling statements in that book is the fact that pedestrians in many areas are looked down upon by drivers in their cars. Its unfortunate how true that statement can be when considering walking down a busy road in the suburbs. The same can be said to biking in certain areas too. It really doesn't matter if you are walking or biking because you want to, the attitude is that you are doing so because you cannot afford to drive. At least thats the vibe the author portrays and that I have gotten as well.

[Crazy Volvo Guy]

I personally hope suburbia doesn't ever die.

Mainly because I cannot stand living in the same building other people (aside from my own family or close friends, if I were to "split a place) live in.  I just can't deal with having neighbors *that* close (though many people could argue that the newest developments are often almost the same, since they're so jam-packed)

This, of course, comes from my roots - I spent most of my childhood literally in the woods.  You could hardly see the street through the woods from the front window of my childhood home, and the neighbors? Forget it.  Closest one was nearly a quarter mile away.  Yeah, I need my space.

[ComputerGuy]

Oh no! I hope the Washington suburbs survive...we love col-de-sacs.

[Crazy Volvo Guy]

I also think this article contains a lot of sensationalism.  They pick the hardest-hit areas to base this off of, supposedly representing the entire country.  Come to Nashville/Franklin and tell me suburbia is going to die ANY time soon...

Sensationalism is the name of the game in the media, whether it's indie or mainstream.  Sensationalism sells.

[Alex]

You bring up good points Cullen, as I've noted sprawl is still well underway in West Mobile, Alabama. Contrast that with the Orlando area, where I noted a few new subdivisions underway, but others that have sat idle for months. Its more of a regional or metropolitan thing, rather than an overall national issue.