NFL (2024 Season)

[Max Rockatansky]

Jared Goff wasn't a terrible player but he's a borderline starter now.  Compare his statistics last year to what Matt Stafford is doing now with the Rams.

[jmacswimmer]

Today was also Jared Goff's first win with a coach other than Sean McVay, which is pretty unbelievable.

Why?  Jared Goff isn't all that good and might not last as a starter in the NFL much longer.  Whatever happened to him after the 2018 season who knows but he's regressed heavily.  He dragged the Rams down with him the last two seasons.

FWIW, here's my 2 theories on what happened with Goff as it relates to the 2 points I bolded:

-It all started in week 14 of the 2018 season, Rams @ Bears on SNF (a game where the only offensive TD was scored by an offensive lineman): Vic Fangio, then-DC of the Bears, crafted a gameplan of first stonewalling the run (Todd Gurley at the time, IIRC) in order to force Goff to carry the offense, then relentlessly harassed Goff with the pass-rush once the Rams were forced to abandon the run - he wound up finishing with 4 INT's & 3 sacks taken (one in the endzone for a safety).  He recovered in the games after that, but then fast-forward 2 months to February 2019 and the Super Bowl: Bill Belichick, as he often does, did his homework and used Fangio's blueprint to completely shutdown the Rams on the biggest stage and put the recipe out there for everyone to see.

-I recall reading this somewhere once but can't remember where & when I found it: Supposedly McVay would take advantage of a rule allowing coaches to continue speaking into the QB's headset until 0:15 on the playclock to help Goff diagnose defenses at the line pre-snap.  Once DC's figured this out, they started countering by initially showing one look until the headset cut out at 0:15, and then instantly shifting to something else once McVay could no longer speak to Goff.  Wouldn't surprise me if it was also Fangio & Belichick at the forefront of this.

[JayhawkCO]

As I've posted multiple times in this thread, I have a very love/hate relationship with my Vikings.  Obviously, currently they're in the doghouse.  Thankfully, they were favored by 7.5 points and all of their games are within a TD, so I bet a grand on the Lions to cover, and my Vikings didn't let me down.  So... it's not all bad. $ $ $

[thspfc]

NO over DAL
JAX over LAR

Looks like a bad case of overreactionitis.

[JayhawkCO]

NO over DAL
JAX over LAR

Looks like a bad case of overreactionitis.

Not really.  Dallas' defense is terrible and they'll get got sooner rather than later.  The Jags I just took a random shot on since I think the Rams are overrated.  Obviously missed badly.  Next time the Rams play a team with a winning record, I'll pick against them again.

[webny99]

Next time the Rams play a team with a winning record, I'll pick against them again.

That's this week against the Cardinals, and as I mentioned they better win if they don't want to have to play 3 road games in January.

[CoreySamson]

Meanwhile, the Texans are absolutely pathetic. I watched a couple drives yesterday and they look dreadful. The running game is completely pointless at this point, and costly penalties and turnovers take away any positive gains the offense gets. I really wanted Tyrod Taylor to blossom into a franchise quarterback, but it doesn't look like that's the case. At least the defense can play somewhat decently at times.

[thspfc]

NO over DAL
JAX over LAR

Looks like a bad case of overreactionitis.

Not really.  Dallas' defense is terrible and they'll get got sooner rather than later.  The Jags I just took a random shot on since I think the Rams are overrated.  Obviously missed badly.  Next time the Rams play a team with a winning record, I'll pick against them again.

Dallas will finish the regular season no worse than 11-6. That will mean a date with the Rams or Cardinals in the wild card round, which they will probably lose. This has seemed possible for a while now, and in the last few weeks it's started to look likely.

With that being said, Dallas can beat anyone. When healthy and when running the ball well, their offense is the best in the league, and we saw that in the Bucs, Chargers, Eagles, Panthers, Giants, Patriots, and Falcons games. Against the Raiders Dak threw for 375 yards and 2 TDs with no turnovers - without Cooper and Lamb.

The defense has been up and down, and is very reliant on turnovers. But they're forcing a lot of them. They lead the league in interceptions with 19. Keep in mind that the defensive front has been banged up recently. The Raiders game was really, really bad, one of the worst defensive performances by any team this season, but they rebounded nicely against the Saints with four interceptions.

I know that every team in the league is banged up right now. But, if the Cowboys can get and stay healthy, can run the ball the way they did early on, and can keep intercepting passes, they have as much of a shot as anyone to win the Super Bowl. But those are all big ifs.

It's at least good that people are doubling down on the Rams being a disaster instead of doing the usual disownment of previous takes.

[JayhawkCO]

I would be very surprised if the Super Bowl winner came from anyone outside this list:

NFC
Arizona
Green Bay
Tampa Bay

AFC
Kansas City
New England
Buffalo
Indianapolis

[thspfc]

I would be very surprised if the Super Bowl winner came from anyone outside this list:

NFC
Arizona
Green Bay
Tampa Bay

AFC
Kansas City
New England
Buffalo
Indianapolis

In order:
1. Chiefs
2. Buccaneers
3. Packers
4. Rams
5. Cardinals
6. Patriots
7. Cowboys

Bills are way too inconsistent, they won't go three playoff games without laying an egg. Colts will make the playoffs and might well win in the wild card, but they haven't beaten enough of the playoff teams they've faced.

[JayhawkCO]

I would be very surprised if the Super Bowl winner came from anyone outside this list:

NFC
Arizona
Green Bay
Tampa Bay

AFC
Kansas City
New England
Buffalo
Indianapolis

In order:
1. Chiefs
2. Buccaneers
3. Packers
4. Rams
5. Cardinals
6. Patriots
7. Cowboys

Bills are way too inconsistent, they won't go three playoff games without laying an egg. Colts will make the playoffs and might well win in the wild card, but they haven't beaten enough of the playoff teams they've faced.

I almost left Buffalo off the list for the same reasons you note, but if you leave them off for consistency, in my opinion you have to leave off the Cowboys too whose defense is worse.  I still think McDermott is a much better coach than McCarthy and can get them evened out. 

Indy hasn't lost to a bad team.  Their losses are Seattle (Week 1 when they were fully healthy), Rams, Titans, Ravens, and Bucs.  Two of those losses were in overtime and two others were within 7 points.  Best running game, decent passing game, and good defense will be a tough out for anyone.

I posted this upthread, but the Rams have beaten exactly one now two teams with a winning record.  And none of their losses were within 7 points.  I just don't see it with them.

For the record, FanDuel has the odds for Super Bowl victory in the following order:
Tampa Bay
Kansas City
Arizona
Green Bay
Buffalo
New England
Rams
Baltimore
Dallas
Chargers
Tennessee
Cinci
Indy

[thspfc]

I would be very surprised if the Super Bowl winner came from anyone outside this list:

NFC
Arizona
Green Bay
Tampa Bay

AFC
Kansas City
New England
Buffalo
Indianapolis

In order:
1. Chiefs
2. Buccaneers
3. Packers
4. Rams
5. Cardinals
6. Patriots
7. Cowboys

Bills are way too inconsistent, they won't go three playoff games without laying an egg. Colts will make the playoffs and might well win in the wild card, but they haven't beaten enough of the playoff teams they've faced.

I almost left Buffalo off the list for the same reasons you note, but if you leave them off for consistency, in my opinion you have to leave off the Cowboys too whose defense is worse.  I still think McDermott is a much better coach than McCarthy and can get them evened out. 

Dallas hasn't lost to the Jags or anyone nearly as bad as them. If you rank the ugliness of the Cowboys and Bills losses, three of the worst four are Bills losses.

[JayhawkCO]

We'll agree to disagree.  I still say the Bills make it farther in the playoffs than Dallas will.

[Roadgeekteen]

Go Pats beat the Bills

[webny99]

Dallas hasn't lost to the Jags or anyone nearly as bad as them. If you rank the ugliness of the Cowboys and Bills losses, three of the worst four are Bills losses.

Aaargh I was determined not to comment on the Bills until after tonight but you got me with this one! 

I disagree. The top three are pretty obvious, but I think Cowboys-Chiefs was uglier than Bills-Steelers. The Steelers are a defense-first team and the Bills held the Steelers offense to 16 points. Bills probably win or at least go to OT if not for a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. You can argue that the Bills are inconsistent, but that's entirely based on the Jags and Colts games. One was the other Josh Allen's statement game (made possible due to OL injuries), and the other was a classic "everything that can go wrong will" game, including two missed field goals and a head-scratching kickoff return fumble that gifted the Colts 7 points.

In short, the Bills have two really ugly losses, but they're also three plays away from 10-1.

[JayhawkCO]

The weather for tonight's game looks aaammmaaazzziiinggg.

https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1467983299092037636

[thspfc]

Dallas hasn't lost to the Jags or anyone nearly as bad as them. If you rank the ugliness of the Cowboys and Bills losses, three of the worst four are Bills losses.

I disagree. The top three are pretty obvious, but I think Cowboys-Chiefs was uglier than Bills-Steelers. The Steelers are a defense-first team and the Bills held the Steelers offense to 16 points. Bills probably win or at least go to OT if not for a blocked punt returned for a touchdown.

The Chiefs as of late have been a heavily defense-first team, and the Cowboys held the Chiefs offense, which is better than the Steelers offense, to 19 points. And believe it or not, the Chiefs defense as of late has been way better than the Steelers defense. The Chiefs defense right now is even better than the Steelers defense was early in the season.

I don't entertain the "if things were different, then they would be different" argument. The Steelers ran past the Bills blockers and stuffed the punt. And frankly, that mishap plus the one in the Colts game that you describe contribute to, not detract from, my argument that the Bills are inconsistent; they're prone to lapses on special teams.

You can argue that the Bills are inconsistent, but that's entirely based on the Jags and Colts games. One was the other Josh Allen's statement game (made possible due to OL injuries), and the other was a classic "everything that can go wrong will" game, including two missed field goals and a head-scratching kickoff return fumble that gifted the Colts 7 points.

If things were different, then they would be different. If the Jaguars didn't beat the Bills, then the Bills wouldn't have lost to the Jaguars. If the Bills kicker didn't miss two field goals, the Bills would have had 6 more points. If the Colts didn't return a fumble on a kickoff for a touchdown, they would have had 7 fewer points.

Almost as if having a good kicker and a special teams unit that doesn't make mistakes is part of a good football team!

[Henry]

At least there won't be a winless team this year, as the Lions finally won their first game. Not only that, they dedicated it to the victims of the Oxford shooting, which was a very nice gesture.

[webny99]

At least there won't be a winless team this year, as the Lions finally won their first game. Not only that, they dedicated it to the victims of the Oxford shooting, which was a very nice gesture.

In case I sounded dismissive with my earlier take, I agree with this. That was a really impressive comeback win by the Lions and easily the best moment of the week, if not the season. Almost teared up a little re-watching.

[webny99]

The weather for tonight's game looks aaammmaaazzziiinggg.

Currently 36 degrees and very windy with clearing skies here in WNY. It rained almost all day, but no more precipitation in the forecast.

[thspfc]

Disgusting performance by the Bills. New England basically ran the exact same play 30 times in a row on offense, and it worked almost every time. Mac Jones threw 3 passes. For 19 yards. Buffalo's offense wasn't much better. The Patriots could've sent all 11 players on a blitz on that last 4th down, and the Bills still might not have scored. They've laid 3 eggs in their last 5 games. Tell me with a straight face that that team has a shot at the Super Bowl.

[thspfc]

I'm looking forward to hearing about what would have happened if things were different.

[kurumi]

Disgusting performance by the Bills. New England basically ran the exact same play 30 times in a row on offense, and it worked almost every time.

Hey, that's cheating!

I would have rooted for no pass plays at all, to see which web devs didn't test for division by zero in their QB stats code.

[Alps]

Disgusting performance by the Bills. New England basically ran the exact same play 30 times in a row on offense, and it worked almost every time.

Hey, that's cheating!

I would have rooted for no pass plays at all, to see which web devs didn't test for division by zero in their QB stats code.

QB rating: INF

[thspfc]

Coming off an excellent week 13, I'm prepared for a letdown.

Saints 24, Jets 9
Seahawks 27, Texans 20
Chiefs 26, Raiders 10
Ravens 35, Browns 19
Cowboys 31, Washington 27
Titans 28, Jaguars 23
Giants 23, Chargers 20
Broncos 22, Lions 20
49ers 33, Bengals 20
Buccaneers 38, Bills 24
Packers 42, Bears 17
Cardinals 30, Rams 29

The last four weeks, I've been 7, 6, 7, and 7 total points off on Jets games, which is an outstanding run. Hopefully it continues this week against the Saints.

Nothing like a date with the Browns to get the Ravens offense back on track.

Giants/Chargers is a battle of two of the weirdest teams in the league. You would think that the Giants possibly starting a quarterback from the street dramatically increases the Chargers' chances of winning, but the Chargers don't follow the usual rules.

Take what the Patriots did to the Bills last week, add the MVP-led #1 passing offense, add even more dominance over the Bills at the line of scrimmage, add good weather, and you get the Bills' fourth highly embarrassing loss in six games. It won't be as close as my 38-24 prediction indicates, Buffalo will get a couple late touchdowns as the Bucs' undermanned secondary wears down.

I would not be surprised if the Rams won, but I give them a slightly less than 50% chance.