Hurricane Dorian

[US 89]

Just provide a simple forecast hour by hour such as the link I posted, and you can see current wind speeds at the city, which are being reported locally.

Local NWS offices produce an hourly grid forecast which I'd trust significantly more than forecasts from websites like Accuweather or weather.com. Those forecasts most likely pull numbers straight from a computer, while the NWS grids are fine-tuned by human meteorologists familiar with the area. For example, here's the current NWS wind forecast for Melbourne, FL.

[jeffandnicole]

In this news story, it shows the hazards of predicting the forecast incorrectly.  https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/floridians-frustrated-by-cost-of-evacuation-lost-wages-as-they-wait-for-dorian/ar-AAGITeX?li=BBnb7Kz  Many stores and businesses have closed waiting for the storm, and that puts many people - those living paycheck to paycheck - out of work.  Even worse, now they don't have the funds to try to escape even if they could, because those lost wages means that they're going to need to fight harder just for the basic necessities - groceries, rent, etc.  There are a lot of people in this position...more than what we would like to see.  Even those that did evacuate now may have to leave just as the storm is hitting because they don't have the funds to stay longer.  Even worse...those that evacuated based on the storm's projected path may now be sitting in the storm's new path, forcing another evacuation.

...As for this hurricane specifically: the NHC and local WFOs are caught between a rock and a hard place. If they forecast the storm to miss Florida and it winds up taking a more western track, Florida will be unprepared and royally fucked. If they forecast a landfall and the storm eventually misses to the east, everyone who prepared for the storm will be pissed. In either case, they run the risk of losing the public's confidence, which results in nobody heeding evacuation orders in the future...

Bingo  That last sentence of yours is the most important one in all when it comes to forecasting weather.  We constantly hear that we need to take heed to the warnings.  When those warnings are constantly spit out and nothing happens, it erodes that trust. 

I don't think it helps either that the forecasters rarely apologize regarding a missed forecast.  In an extreme example a few years back, the Weather Channel published a long non-apology stating that they were correct in a snowstorm forecast...except it hit 100 miles from where they thought it would, so a few cities were overly prepared for a storm that never hit, and another city was greatly underprepared...and yet the Weather Channel claimed success.  That certainly didn't go over well with the public.

I'd just like to throw this out there and invite the meteorologist-bashers to explain these formulas...

I'll take it on, since you're aware of my dislike.

I can't explain these formulas.

Just like I can't remove an appendix from a person because I'm not a doctor.

Or teach a class of kids because I'm not a teacher.

Or driver a tractor trailer because I don't have a Class A CDL.

Or design a drainage ditch because I'm not an engineer.

Sure, it's a complicated formula.  If that's something a college-graduate meteorologist should know, then they should know.  That's why meteorologists exist...to solve the problems and inform us of the results the rest of us don't know the answer to.

[Beltway]

Just provide a simple forecast hour by hour such as the link I posted, and you can see current wind speeds at the city, which are being reported locally.

Local NWS offices produce an hourly grid forecast which I'd trust significantly more than forecasts from websites like Accuweather or weather.com. Those forecasts most likely pull numbers straight from a computer, while the NWS grids are fine-tuned by human meteorologists familiar with the area. For example, here's the current NWS wind forecast for Melbourne, FL.

Very close to the profile on weather.com.  There are a variety of sources that are usable for these forecasts.

[kalvado]

Aside from when Buffalo got 7 feet of snow all at once, I've never heard of a snow storm destroying houses.  I've never heard of anyone needing to evacuate due to one, either.  Just don't drive on the roads during the worst of it, get out your shovel, and wait for the plows and salt to make the roads passable.  Much nicer than evacuating and having a hurricane destroy your home.

Not exactly a house, but yet - in February 2010, a hangar roof in Dulles airport (near DC) collapsed on several planes. all those seen on the photos were written off.

[tolbs17]

For us, it's projected that we will get 6-10 inches of rain. I'm not sure if that's enough to submerge cars where you enter in.

[1995hoo]

[jeffandnicole]

For us, it's projected that we will get 6-10 inches of rain. I'm not sure if that's enough to submerge cars where you enter in.

All depends on drainage and length of the storm.  If the area has had average rainfall recently, it will greatly assist with the rain.  If there's been a lot of rain, the ground may be overly saturated and can't hold the additional rainfall.  If it's been dry, the ground is too hard, and rain water will run off rather than be absorbed. 

The drainage infrastructure in the area matters as well.  If you're near the edge of the storm, less rainwater will be heading towards the outflow areas compared to if you're in the middle of the storm where a lot more rain from other areas will need to utilize that same outflow area.

[goobnav]

For us, it's projected that we will get 6-10 inches of rain. I'm not sure if that's enough to submerge cars where you enter in.

All depends on drainage and length of the storm.  If the area has had average rainfall recently, it will greatly assist with the rain.  If there's been a lot of rain, the ground may be overly saturated and can't hold the additional rainfall.  If it's been dry, the ground is too hard, and rain water will run off rather than be absorbed. 

The drainage infrastructure in the area matters as well.  If you're near the edge of the storm, less rainwater will be heading towards the outflow areas compared to if you're in the middle of the storm where a lot more rain from other areas will need to utilize that same outflow area.

It's Eastern NC, that is still a lot of rain.  See Floyd of '99.

[Beltway]

Now I hope it misses Virginia Beach. 

I have business there Friday and that will be the peak for the storm impacts.

[roadman65]

The Bahamas looks like a war zone.  Freeport and Marsh Harbour both have nothing but debris scattered across the island.  What do you expect from being battered for 36 hours straight from high winds above the norm.

[LM117]

For us, it's projected that we will get 6-10 inches of rain. I'm not sure if that's enough to submerge cars where you enter in.

All depends on drainage and length of the storm.  If the area has had average rainfall recently, it will greatly assist with the rain.  If there's been a lot of rain, the ground may be overly saturated and can't hold the additional rainfall.  If it's been dry, the ground is too hard, and rain water will run off rather than be absorbed. 

The drainage infrastructure in the area matters as well.  If you're near the edge of the storm, less rainwater will be heading towards the outflow areas compared to if you're in the middle of the storm where a lot more rain from other areas will need to utilize that same outflow area.

It's Eastern NC, that is still a lot of rain.  See Floyd of '99.

Yep. I was living in Warsaw when Floyd hit. It wasn't fun.

[tolbs17]

Hurricanes!

1999 - Floyd

2004 - Charley

2010 - Earl

2011 - Irene

2012 - Sandy (didn't really affect the Carolinas but we got some rain from it)

2014 - Arthur

2016 - Matthew

2017 - Irma (also didn't really affect us)

2018 - Florence

2019 - Dorian!

Can we just have a year without hurricanes?!

[Max Rockatansky]

Hurricanes!

1999 - Floyd

2004 - Charley

2010 - Earl

2011 - Irene

2012 - Sandy (didn't really affect the Carolinas but we got some rain from it)

2014 - Arthur

2016 - Matthew

2017 - Irma (also didn't really affect us)

2018 - Florence

2019 - Dorian!

Can we just have a year without hurricanes?!

Move to the West Coast and you'll virtually have zero chance of encountering a tropical storm.  If you live anywhere near the Atlantic seaboard odds are you'll get hit at some point every couple years even if it just rain.

[US 89]

Move to the West Coast and you'll virtually have zero chance of encountering a tropical storm.

Never say never...

[Max Rockatansky]

Move to the West Coast and you'll virtually have zero chance of encountering a tropical storm.

Never say never...

Even less reason to live in Southern California. 

[oscar]

Move to the West Coast and you'll virtually have zero chance of encountering a tropical storm.

Never say never...

Don't forget the remnants of Hurricane Kathleen in 1976. Killed several people in Ocotillo, destroyed part of Interstate 8, and also prompted the abandonment of a rail line to San Diego (the city later acquired some of the stranded tracks for its new light-rail system).

[Max Rockatansky]

Move to the West Coast and you'll virtually have zero chance of encountering a tropical storm.

Never say never...

Don't forget the remnants of Hurricane Kathleen in 1976. Killed several people in Ocotillo, destroyed part of Interstate 8, and also prompted the abandonment of a rail line to San Diego (the city later acquired some of the stranded tracks for its new light-rail system).

Had quite a few remnants roll through Arizona when I lived there circa 2001-2013 but nothing all that serious aside from flooded washes from what I can recall:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Arizona_hurricanes

[ozarkman417]

Hurricanes!

1999 - Floyd

2004 - Charley

2010 - Earl

2011 - Irene

2012 - Sandy (didn't really affect the Carolinas but we got some rain from it)

2014 - Arthur

2016 - Matthew

2017 - Irma (also didn't really affect us)

2018 - Florence

2019 - Dorian!

Can we just have a year without hurricanes?!

Move to the West Coast and you'll virtually have zero chance of encountering a tropical storm.  If you live anywhere near the Atlantic seaboard odds are you'll get hit at some point every couple years even if it just rain.

Missouri is always a great option if you want to swap Hurricanes out with tornadoes. That being said the chance of a tornado striking a given point is much, much lower than that of a hurricane (though we occasionally get Remanents of them, like Barry earlier this year).

[mvak36]

This is just my opinion, but if these hurricanes are going to be a yearly occurrence in NC, they should work towards completing the US70 (from I-40 to the coast) and US74 (from Charlotte to Wilmington) freeways quicker so that they have more efficient evacuation routes from the coast.

[goobnav]

This is just my opinion, but if these hurricanes are going to be a yearly occurrence in NC, they should work towards completing the US70 (from I-40 to the coast) and US74 (from Charlotte to Wilmington) freeways quicker so that they have more efficient evacuation routes from the coast.

40 already has reverse capability to 95 if needed.  I-42 will help the Southern OBX but, the majority of the route is 4 lanes already, just with cross streets and traffic signals.

[Max Rockatansky]

Hurricanes!

1999 - Floyd

2004 - Charley

2010 - Earl

2011 - Irene

2012 - Sandy (didn't really affect the Carolinas but we got some rain from it)

2014 - Arthur

2016 - Matthew

2017 - Irma (also didn't really affect us)

2018 - Florence

2019 - Dorian!

Can we just have a year without hurricanes?!

Move to the West Coast and you'll virtually have zero chance of encountering a tropical storm.  If you live anywhere near the Atlantic seaboard odds are you'll get hit at some point every couple years even if it just rain.

Missouri is always a great option if you want to swap Hurricanes out with tornadoes. That being said the chance of a tornado striking a given point is much, much lower than that of a hurricane (though we occasionally get Remanents of them, like Barry earlier this year).

I wouldn't trade living in North Carolina for Missouri.  Really about the only thing that I can think that would draw my interest is all the US 66 stuff.  At least in North Carolina you have the best mountains on the east coast and a pretty nice coastal area to boot.  I'd be willing to suffer through a tropical storm or two if I had to pick between those two states. 

[Mark68]

Hurricanes!

1999 - Floyd

2004 - Charley

2010 - Earl

2011 - Irene

2012 - Sandy (didn't really affect the Carolinas but we got some rain from it)

2014 - Arthur

2016 - Matthew

2017 - Irma (also didn't really affect us)

2018 - Florence

2019 - Dorian!

Can we just have a year without hurricanes?!

You did. In 2013.

[Mark68]

Move to the West Coast and you'll virtually have zero chance of encountering a tropical storm.

Never say never...

With climate change, I would imagine there will be an increased chance of hurricanes staying together long enough to make landfall in SoCal. Normally, the peak ocean temperature reaches the mid 70s in late August. I can imagine with an overall increase in water temperature, even the cold Humboldt Current can be impacted.

[goobnav]

Move to the West Coast and you'll virtually have zero chance of encountering a tropical storm.

Never say never...

With climate change, I would imagine there will be an increased chance of hurricanes staying together long enough to make landfall in SoCal. Normally, the peak ocean temperature reaches the mid 70s in late August. I can imagine with an overall increase in water temperature, even the cold Humboldt Current can be impacted.

LOL!!!!  Seriously, for a hurricane to even form the average water temp has to be at least 82 degrees.  All you would get is an extra tropic disturbance, not even close to being a hurricane.

Back in the 70's and early 80's they predicted a coming Ice Age.  Here we are 30 years later no Ice Age.  Ugh, the climate does change, it's called the 4 seasons.  No, not the singing group.

[LM117]

This is just my opinion, but if these hurricanes are going to be a yearly occurrence in NC, they should work towards completing the US70 (from I-40 to the coast) and US74 (from Charlotte to Wilmington) freeways quicker so that they have more efficient evacuation routes from the coast.

They're trying to, especially regarding the US-70/Future I-42 corridor. All of the I-42 corridor is either under construction or in the planning stages. Problem is funding, which has become a big problem lately because of the recent hurricanes and Map Act settlements. Many projects across the state were pushed back because of that. The projects were on track until the chickens came home to roost.