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brad2971:

--- Quote from: kernals12 on October 31, 2022, 09:07:30 PM ---
--- Quote from: Bobby5280 on October 31, 2022, 06:27:19 PM ---A planned community of 300,000 home-buying customers? It sounds to me like some developers are taking some market conditions for granted. There is a lot of variables in our nation's economy that are financially unsustainable for the long term. Only so many people can afford to buy a McMansion these days.

This kind of news reminds me of the mid 2000's when lots of people were getting suckered into paying top dollar for homes built way out in the "exhurbs" and financing them with adjustable rate mortgages. "Oh don't worry, you'll able to flip this house for even more money before your mortgage rate changes!"

There's a bunch of young adults who can't afford to move out of their parents' homes and make rent on an apartment. They gotta get one or more roommates. I'm worried this situation could dramatically worsen. I already own my own home, but I have other "selfish" concerns -like whether or not Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid will even still exist 20 or so years from now when I'm eligible to retire and start drawing benefits. It takes so and such large of a tax base to prevent those programs from going completely insolvent. That means having enough young adults who can afford to buy their own homes, get married, have kids and all that good stuff, including contributing to the tax base. A planned community built on speculation depends greatly on having enough young adult customers.


--- Quote from: Max Rockatansky ---That will certainly help, but I-11 is one those things I’ll believe is going to happen when shovels are in the ground.  That whole course west of the White Tank Mountains makes zero sense as far as providing a Vegas-Phoenix link.
--- End quote ---

Bare minimum, I-11 should be routed down US-60 to at least the Loop 303 corridor then go down to I-10. Routing it way out past the White Tanks and Sun Valley Parkway doesn't make a lick of sense. The vast majority of Las Vegas to Phoenix traffic will stay on US-60.

If this 300,000 person residential development actually succeeds then, yes, a secondary 3 digit Interstate from Wickenburg straight down to I-10 might make sense. But it doesn't cancel out the need for a direct Phoenix-Vegas Interstate.

--- End quote ---
Phoenix is forecast to add 2.5 million people in the next 30 years. I think a community this size can succeed. Just look at Irvine or The Woodlands

--- End quote ---

Sure. Keep believing that. In the meantime, consider this: In 2005, Buckeye approved a 49000 unit development called Tartesso. This development is 1-2 miles off I-10 along Sun Valley Parkway. The development finished its first phase of about 3375 homes...just within the last year, and opened its second of what are planned to be 17 elementary schools just three months ago.

You may be waiting a while for that buildout of Teravalis (though to be fair, the east part of Teravalis does appear to be right next to Sun Valley Parkway as well).

kernals12:

--- Quote from: brad2971 on October 31, 2022, 10:07:36 PM ---
--- Quote from: kernals12 on October 31, 2022, 09:07:30 PM ---
--- Quote from: Bobby5280 on October 31, 2022, 06:27:19 PM ---A planned community of 300,000 home-buying customers? It sounds to me like some developers are taking some market conditions for granted. There is a lot of variables in our nation's economy that are financially unsustainable for the long term. Only so many people can afford to buy a McMansion these days.

This kind of news reminds me of the mid 2000's when lots of people were getting suckered into paying top dollar for homes built way out in the "exhurbs" and financing them with adjustable rate mortgages. "Oh don't worry, you'll able to flip this house for even more money before your mortgage rate changes!"

There's a bunch of young adults who can't afford to move out of their parents' homes and make rent on an apartment. They gotta get one or more roommates. I'm worried this situation could dramatically worsen. I already own my own home, but I have other "selfish" concerns -like whether or not Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid will even still exist 20 or so years from now when I'm eligible to retire and start drawing benefits. It takes so and such large of a tax base to prevent those programs from going completely insolvent. That means having enough young adults who can afford to buy their own homes, get married, have kids and all that good stuff, including contributing to the tax base. A planned community built on speculation depends greatly on having enough young adult customers.


--- Quote from: Max Rockatansky ---That will certainly help, but I-11 is one those things Iíll believe is going to happen when shovels are in the ground.  That whole course west of the White Tank Mountains makes zero sense as far as providing a Vegas-Phoenix link.
--- End quote ---

Bare minimum, I-11 should be routed down US-60 to at least the Loop 303 corridor then go down to I-10. Routing it way out past the White Tanks and Sun Valley Parkway doesn't make a lick of sense. The vast majority of Las Vegas to Phoenix traffic will stay on US-60.

If this 300,000 person residential development actually succeeds then, yes, a secondary 3 digit Interstate from Wickenburg straight down to I-10 might make sense. But it doesn't cancel out the need for a direct Phoenix-Vegas Interstate.

--- End quote ---
Phoenix is forecast to add 2.5 million people in the next 30 years. I think a community this size can succeed. Just look at Irvine or The Woodlands

--- End quote ---

Sure. Keep believing that. In the meantime, consider this: In 2005, Buckeye approved a 49000 unit development called Tartesso. This development is 1-2 miles off I-10 along Sun Valley Parkway. The development finished its first phase of about 3375 homes...just within the last year, and opened its second of what are planned to be 17 elementary schools just three months ago.

You may be waiting a while for that buildout of Teravalis (though to be fair, the east part of Teravalis does appear to be right next to Sun Valley Parkway as well).

--- End quote ---

Back then, house flippers were illegally getting Arizona license plates, so many so that it was inflating Arizona's estimated population. Unlike then, today's demand is real.

Max Rockatansky:
There was plenty of in-state flippers back then also.  As an example my brother did a bunch of flipping until he got stuck holding six houses when the real estate bubble burst.  He along with his construction buddies (also from Arizona) pretty much all ending up declaring bankruptcy.

But hey, youíre the guy who didnít live through the era and has never owned a house in Arizona so that makes you an expert right?

brad2971:

--- Quote from: Max Rockatansky on November 01, 2022, 10:07:02 AM ---There was plenty of in-state flippers back then also.  As an example my brother did a bunch of flipping until he got stuck holding six houses when the real estate bubble burst.  He along with his construction buddies (also from Arizona) pretty much all ending up declaring bankruptcy.

But hey, youíre the guy who didnít live through the era and has never owned a house in Arizona so that makes you an expert right?

--- End quote ---

I do apologize for apparently striking a raw nerve with some of my commentary on how metro Phoenix (and Las Vegas, for that matter) is about to have growth slowdowns in their future.

Now to be fair, the Howard Hughes Corporation is a well-funded development corporation that has been known to build freeways through their developments. Summerlin Parkway (in Las Vegas, now Nevada SR 613) famously comes to mind. And they could very well pay for much of the costs of building a four-lane freeway from I-10 up to the existing four-lane US 93 connection northwest of SR 89 near Wickenburg. I'm just...skeptical about Teravalis's full buildout prospects, especially when we're in the early stages of a huge transfer of housing from Baby Boomers to their Millenial/Gen Z children/grandchildren. And especially since, when it comes to moving, we as a nation, despite the last two years, are still in the lowest rates of moving in the entire post WW2-era.

Max Rockatansky:

--- Quote from: brad2971 on November 01, 2022, 10:00:19 PM ---
--- Quote from: Max Rockatansky on November 01, 2022, 10:07:02 AM ---There was plenty of in-state flippers back then also.  As an example my brother did a bunch of flipping until he got stuck holding six houses when the real estate bubble burst.  He along with his construction buddies (also from Arizona) pretty much all ending up declaring bankruptcy.

But hey, youíre the guy who didnít live through the era and has never owned a house in Arizona so that makes you an expert right?

--- End quote ---

I do apologize for apparently striking a raw nerve with some of my commentary on how metro Phoenix (and Las Vegas, for that matter) is about to have growth slowdowns in their future.

Now to be fair, the Howard Hughes Corporation is a well-funded development corporation that has been known to build freeways through their developments. Summerlin Parkway (in Las Vegas, now Nevada SR 613) famously comes to mind. And they could very well pay for much of the costs of building a four-lane freeway from I-10 up to the existing four-lane US 93 connection northwest of SR 89 near Wickenburg. I'm just...skeptical about Teravalis's full buildout prospects, especially when we're in the early stages of a huge transfer of housing from Baby Boomers to their Millenial/Gen Z children/grandchildren. And especially since, when it comes to moving, we as a nation, despite the last two years, are still in the lowest rates of moving in the entire post WW2-era.

--- End quote ---

To clarify, my last comment wasnít directed towards anything you said.  It was directed towards the a certain poster who has never owned a home much less lived in Metro Phoenix. 

I do agree that part of Teravalis will get built, how much though remains to be seen.  When Buckeye incorporated it grew substantially around the corridor I-10 and MC 85 due to ease of access.  Iíve been hearing how Buckeye has been planning to expand west of the White Tanks since they incorporated as a city. 

The trouble is that even with improved infrastructure that is a long way from any of the working centers of the Phoenix area.  I canít fathom that 300,000 people from working class homes will be able to reasonably live in a place so disconnected from the rest Phoenix Metro Area.  If there isnít demand, the development simply wonít take off anywhere near to the scale being boasted Howard Hughes Corporation.

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