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2021 Supply Disruptions

Started by ZLoth, April 13, 2021, 03:31:44 AM

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Dirt Roads

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 13, 2021, 07:44:33 AM
I was under the impression the toilet paper issue wasn't a capacity production issue but rather the demand dramatically increasing over a short time span?

Quote from: Dirt Roads on April 13, 2021, 08:32:41 AM
You are correct.  Before COVID, the primary demand for toilet paper was industrial-sized commercial rolls used in hospitals, office buildings, factories, etc.  Over time, the value of that product grew such so as to add smaller shoppes and restaurants.  After COVID, the primary demand shifted to traditional household size rolls.  Which are not only made in other factories, but so is the packaging (including the paper core).  I believe there was also a transportation issue here, but I hesitate to discuss without the detail.

Quote from: hbelkins on April 13, 2021, 03:18:37 PM
And there's definitely a quality difference between bathroom stationery meant for commercial use and what's meant for home use

But during the worst of the toilet paper shortage, we would have been happy with access to the poor quality commercial stuff.  I didn't get out much around this time last year, but I do all of the shopping (for my aunt also) and went over 10 weeks without seeing a single roll of toilet paper on the shelves in both Orange and Alamance counties.  We were stocked up before it hit, and somehow able to ride it out without having to make it myself (which I was close to doing).


kphoger

But the entire supply chain was based on the existing commercial/residential needs.  Yes, we would have been happy with anything, but the system wasn't set up to get the commercial stuff into our hands.
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Male pronouns, please.

Quote from: Philip K. DickIf you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use them.

Scott5114

There was also the problem of commercial stuff just not being packaged in such a way that made sense to sell in a grocery store. Like if a dozen of those giant-ass sandpaper rolls was packed in a plain cardboard box with no UPC (since businesses tend to order online). You could add the consumer information to the box with a sticker, but that takes time (both to print up the stickers, and to get the UPC codes–businesses that sell only to other businesses may not even own the rights to a block of UPCs they could use).
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kurumi

My first SF/horror short story collection is available: "Young Man, Open Your Winter Eye"

kphoger

Quote from: Dirt Roads on April 15, 2021, 12:43:06 PM
But during the worst of the toilet paper shortage, we would have been happy with access to the poor quality commercial stuff.

Quote from: Scott5114 on April 15, 2021, 05:46:06 PM
There was also the problem of commercial stuff just not being packaged in such a way that made sense to sell in a grocery store. Like if a dozen of those giant-ass sandpaper rolls was packed in a plain cardboard box with no UPC (since businesses tend to order online). You could add the consumer information to the box with a sticker, but that takes time (both to print up the stickers, and to get the UPC codes–businesses that sell only to other businesses may not even own the rights to a block of UPCs they could use).

I think some folks might not realize how commercial toilet paper is packaged.  I used to deliver the stuff every day for a living, and it's one of the bulkiest sanitation items out there.  And I'm not even talking about the huge rolls you see in airport bathrooms either.  Just regular old toilet paper rolls come in HUGE case-quantities.  Like, 48 rolls per case.  I imagine plenty of shoppers wouldn't even be able to carry one.  Yeah, a case only weighs about 30 pounds, but it's bulky enough to fill a whole shopping cart.

Keep right except to pass.  Yes.  You.
Visit scenic Orleans County, NY!
Male pronouns, please.

Quote from: Philip K. DickIf you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use them.

webny99

Quote from: kphoger on April 16, 2021, 10:34:23 AM
I think some folks might not realize how commercial toilet paper is packaged.  I used to deliver the stuff every day for a living, and it's one of the bulkiest sanitation items out there.  And I'm not even talking about the huge rolls you see in airport bathrooms either.  Just regular old toilet paper rolls come in HUGE case-quantities.  Like, 48 rolls per case.  I imagine plenty of shoppers wouldn't even be able to carry one.  Yeah, a case only weighs about 30 pounds, but it's bulky enough to fill a whole shopping cart.

[img snipped]

That's exactly what I was thinking - the stuff we use where I work comes in cases of 96 rolls!

michravera

Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2021, 08:40:30 AM
It confounds me still that there are some temporary but wide-spread shortages as you walk the grocery store aisles.

OK, I understand why TP and sanitizer and other products were in short supply when demand surged.  (Ironically, we now often see BOGO on hand sanitizer and wipes - the supply chain overreacted and now people are buying less, as they use up their hoarded supplies.)

But why some weeks is nearly the entire spice section is empty?  A shortage of a few things I can understand - shipment of cinnamon or pepper or something got delayed and the supply ran out.  But suddenly 80-90% of all spices are sold out? 

Other commodities follow this pattern from time to time.

When there is a genuine or perceived shortage of something (or a disruption of its supply), people often assume that things perceived as similar will be in short supply as well. The fact that, for instance, tea and sugar come from different parts of the world may not enter the minds of people who wish to purchase them.

A perceived shortage when there actually is none often leads to hoarding. The overall demand for the thing doesn't change, so the shortage will be temporary. However, the manufactures or suppliers may react to the hoarding by ramping up production or shipments. This may lead to an oversupply. When there is a real shortage or supply disruption, the price will go up until it discourages people from buying it right now. In an ordinary market, the quantity produced will stabilize at the amount which maximizes the greatest total cost (not necessarily the greatest total profit).

GaryV

There was a place in Cheboygan, MI, that supplied TP to motels and such Up North.  When everything shut down, their sales shut down.  So they made 96-roll cartons available to the public.

And some hoarded:  https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/03/19/cheboygan-toilet-paper-great-lakes-tissue-sale-coronavirus/2876199001/

Scott5114

Quote from: kphoger on April 16, 2021, 10:34:23 AM


"Envision"? That's the stupidest brand name for toilet paper I've ever seen. What exactly are we supposed to be envisioning when we're on the can with a roll of 1-ply toilet paper?
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JayhawkCO

Quote from: Scott5114 on April 16, 2021, 04:17:09 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 16, 2021, 10:34:23 AM


"Envision"? That's the stupidest brand name for toilet paper I've ever seen. What exactly are we supposed to be envisioning when we're on the can with a roll of 1-ply toilet paper?

Road rash.

Chris

kphoger

Quote from: Scott5114 on April 16, 2021, 04:17:09 PM
"Envision"? That's the stupidest brand name for toilet paper I've ever seen. What exactly are we supposed to be envisioning when we're on the can with a roll of 1-ply toilet paper?

TP isn't the only thing they sell, you know...
Keep right except to pass.  Yes.  You.
Visit scenic Orleans County, NY!
Male pronouns, please.

Quote from: Philip K. DickIf you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use them.

kphoger

They also, for example, make sensor-triggered paper towel dispensers.  Does that make more sense?

Oh, wait, shoot, those are called enMotion instead.  Hmph.
Keep right except to pass.  Yes.  You.
Visit scenic Orleans County, NY!
Male pronouns, please.

Quote from: Philip K. DickIf you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use them.

CtrlAltDel

#37
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 16, 2021, 04:17:09 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 16, 2021, 10:34:23 AM


"Envision"? That's the stupidest brand name for toilet paper I've ever seen. What exactly are we supposed to be envisioning when we're on the can with a roll of 1-ply toilet paper?

I don't know, but I have to admit that I like the font. Does anyone know what it is?
Interstates clinched: 4, 57, 275 (IN-KY-OH), 465 (IN), 640 (TN), 985
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Scott5114

Quote from: CtrlAltDel on April 16, 2021, 06:00:23 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 16, 2021, 04:17:09 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 16, 2021, 10:34:23 AM


"Envision"? That's the stupidest brand name for toilet paper I've ever seen. What exactly are we supposed to be envisioning when we're on the can with a roll of 1-ply toilet paper?

I don't know, but I have to admit that I like the font. Does anyone know what it is?

Rotis Semi Serif.

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webny99

I was hoping it was called 'Envision'.  :-P

CtrlAltDel

Interstates clinched: 4, 57, 275 (IN-KY-OH), 465 (IN), 640 (TN), 985
State Interstates clinched: I-26 (TN), I-75 (GA), I-75 (KY), I-75 (TN), I-81 (WV), I-95 (NH)

hbelkins

Quote from: Scott5114 on April 16, 2021, 04:17:09 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 16, 2021, 10:34:23 AM


"Envision"? That's the stupidest brand name for toilet paper I've ever seen. What exactly are we supposed to be envisioning when we're on the can with a roll of 1-ply toilet paper?

Cleaning out from under your fingernails when your fingers invariably poke through the paper while you're wiping.


Government would be tolerable if not for politicians and bureaucrats.

kphoger

I bite my fingernails so that never happens.

(Make what you will of the absence of a comma in that sentence.)
Keep right except to pass.  Yes.  You.
Visit scenic Orleans County, NY!
Male pronouns, please.

Quote from: Philip K. DickIf you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use them.

Dirt Roads

#43
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 16, 2021, 04:17:09 PM
"Envision"? That's the stupidest brand name for toilet paper I've ever seen. What exactly are we supposed to be envisioning when we're on the can with a roll of 1-ply toilet paper?

Quote from: hbelkins on April 16, 2021, 07:22:57 PMCleaning out from under your fingernails when your fingers invariably poke through the paper while you're wiping.

My dad would joke that they taught him this in the Army.  Recently, I found out that the Army still teaches such.  I honesty thought he was joking.  If you are that desperate, who needs toilet paper anyway?

Oops.  Fixed the quotes.  Not sure how that happened.

Scott5114

How on earth did you manage to get those two quotes switched? :P
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Duke87

Quote from: hbelkins on April 13, 2021, 05:03:35 PM
Is there a corresponding shortage of mustard/mayo/horseradish/BBQ/etc. packets as well? All media accounts I've seen refer to a "ketchup shortage," not a "condiment packaging shortage."

As I understand it, the issue arose because so many restaurants were long in the habit of automatically throwing packets of ketchup in the bag whenever someone had an order to go or for delivery involving french fries. With a dramatic increase in the number of take-out/delivery orders... eventually they started running out of ketchup packets. Since there was not a widespread habit of throwing packets of mayo or whatever in the bag without being specifically asked for them, a similar phenomenon did not occur with other condiments.

Myself, I certainly threw plenty of unused ketchup packets in the garbage in 2020 (since I don't use it). Then at some point in the last few months the flow of wasted ketchup packets shut off, as places started asking if I wanted it rather than just providing it unrequested.
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Scott5114

I tend to save leftover ketchup packets and leave them in a drawer in my kitchen for later use whenever I forget to ask for them, or when the drive-thru cashier is in such a hurry they close the window before I have the chance to ask. For a while there, during the lockdown, we were ordering through Doordash/Grubhub enough that my ketchup packet tray was overflowing, because we were bringing in more ketchup than we were using.
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ZLoth

I'm an Engineer. That means I solve problems. Not problems like "What is beauty?", because that would fall within the purview of your conundrums of philosophy. I solve practical problems and call them "paychecks".

Scott5114

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Duke87

Quote from: ZLoth on April 18, 2021, 12:14:46 PM
Swimming pool chlorine tablets may become scarce, costly

This one appears to not have much of anything to do with covid.

Though, it does still expose the hazards of overcentralization. When 80% of the country's anything is manufactured at one facility, supply will be extremely vulnerable to disruption since if anything happens at that one facility forcing it offline more than briefly (such as, in this case, a fire), there will be severe shortages.
If you always take the same road, you will never see anything new.



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