Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Plutonic Panda]

The "induced demand" argument is much older than you think, it's been used since at least the 70s to argue against road building. Clearly it's not really influential.

I thought the argument really became in the limelight during the 90s but I gotta disagree with you here that it doesn’t play a role in decision making when a DOT drops a proposed project. It used time and time again especially by those involved in successfully delaying/halting proposed improvements to I-710, HDC, and I-5/I-605 proposals in the LA area.

[Alps]

TIL the Wilson Bridge only has 2 lanes each way inside.

[kernals12]

The "induced demand" argument is much older than you think, it's been used since at least the 70s to argue against road building. Clearly it's not really influential.

I thought the argument really became in the limelight during the 90s but I gotta disagree with you here that it doesn’t play a role in decision making when a DOT drops a proposed project. It used time and time again especially by those involved in successfully delaying/halting proposed improvements to I-710, HDC, and I-5/I-605 proposals in the LA area.

I thought the arguments against those projects were noise, pollution, homes demolished, and, above all, lack of funds.

[jeffandnicole]

I found something interesting.

In 2001, the Woodrow Wilson Bridge carried 200,000 vehicles per day

They then widened it from 6 lanes to 12

In 2019, traffic was just under 250,000.

So a 100% increase in capacity was followed by just a 25% increase in traffic.

That's a factoid that should be brought up every time some mouth breather claims widening the AL bridge won't reduce congestion.

Induced demand, or even the claim that it is induced demand, doesn't necessarily mean it's a one-to-one ratio. As long as traffic is still congested during rush hours, those that were against widening will claim that the widening did nothing to help, and traffic quickly filled up the lanes.

Usually though, they don't look at (or ignore) other times of day, especially midday traffic, after sporting events, etc, where traffic may have formerly congested but is now flowing freely. They will also ignore that traffic on other roads that were used to bypass congestion are now using the widened roadway, which would help reduce congestion in other areas of the region.

There's also additional factors at play here:

The highway, on either side of the bridge, is still four lanes wide. Even though there's interchanges within the widened roadway, the main highway is still going to be a limiting factor where there's only four lanes leading to the bridge. This also plays into why they didn't stripe the bridge to six lanes in each direction.

Also, people traveling through the area, not familiar with the area, may be inclined to use GPS, which wasn't as common prior to the bridge widening. The GPS routing often will take people on 295, or 495 west of DC, which may smooth traffic out over the entire region, especially during busy travel times.

[kernals12]

My sister lives in Bethesda and just started a job in Tysons. Right now it's remote, but if she gets called into the office, she'll be using this bridge and she, like hundreds of thousands of others, will benefit from it being widened. So I've taken the step of submitting a public comment to the Maryland DOT in favor.

[Plutonic Panda]

The "induced demand" argument is much older than you think, it's been used since at least the 70s to argue against road building. Clearly it's not really influential.

I thought the argument really became in the limelight during the 90s but I gotta disagree with you here that it doesn’t play a role in decision making when a DOT drops a proposed project. It used time and time again especially by those involved in successfully delaying/halting proposed improvements to I-710, HDC, and I-5/I-605 proposals in the LA area.

I thought the arguments against those projects were noise, pollution, homes demolished, and, above all, lack of funds.

I’ve never heard lack of funds given they are funded by a 120 billion dollar transportation bill for LA Metro but the other points are part of the argument along with induced demand being a big talking point from the opposition.

[cpzilliacus]

Induced demand, or even the claim that it is induced demand, doesn't necessarily mean it's a one-to-one ratio. As long as traffic is still congested during rush hours, those that were against widening will claim that the widening did nothing to help, and traffic quickly filled up the lanes.

A few thoughts:

1. Many promoters of "induced" demand for road capacity are probably  speaking of latent demand, which is not the same thing.

2.  Every credible study of induced demand I have seen has been about added "free" (or untolled) road capacity, and especially not about tolls that vary by time-of-day.  These studies frequently look at road traffic volumes only and do not control for changes in population and employment in nearby areas.

3. I have never seen any study about induced demand by a new transit line, even though I think such a thing exists in some travel markets served by transit.  But I have never heard someone oppose a transit line due to induced demand.

4.  I also believe that land use restrictions by local governments (taking developable land off the market to "save agriculture" and "preserve our rural legacy"  and "open space preservation" and other similar phrases) can and does cause "leapfrog" development to the next jurisdiction out which is also a form of "induced" demand.

[Plutonic Panda]

Toll rate plan finalized:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2021/11/18/maryland-beltway-270-toll-rates/

[kernals12]

The Washington Post Editorial Board is once again on the attack:

Mr. Hogan was already forced to pare back his toll road plan to accommodate local opposition. That was followed by a state report suggesting that the downsized project — covering just segments of the Beltway and I-270 — wouldn’t do much for evening rush-hour traffic by 2045. Opponents seized on the report as proof the plan isn’t worth it. In fact, it should serve as a warning: Without a more farsighted project that would add capacity to Maryland’s full length of the Beltway and I-270 to Frederick, everyone will suffer.

[1995hoo]

Why does that surprise you?

[kernals12]

Why does that surprise you?

Because the Washington Post is supposed to be the paper of the chattering classes and the chattering classes hate cars.

[Rothman]

The Washington Post Editorial Board is once again on the attack:

Mr. Hogan was already forced to pare back his toll road plan to accommodate local opposition. That was followed by a state report suggesting that the downsized project — covering just segments of the Beltway and I-270 — wouldn’t do much for evening rush-hour traffic by 2045. Opponents seized on the report as proof the plan isn’t worth it. In fact, it should serve as a warning: Without a more farsighted project that would add capacity to Maryland’s full length of the Beltway and I-270 to Frederick, everyone will suffer.

I don't see this as an attack, but just reporting on the opposition's stance.

[Plutonic Panda]

Another setback: https://wtop.com/maryland/2022/02/montgomery-county-judge-rules-against-mdot-in-toll-lanes-lawsuit/

It seems all the ruling says is to simply reconsider the contract and move on?

[davewiecking]

Another, another setback: https://www.marylandmatters.org/2022/08/05/breaking-federal-officials-delay-action-on-hogan-plan-to-build-toll-lanes-in-montgomery/

FHWA had been expected to issue RoD last Friday (8/5/22), but delayed that as they continue to review the 26,000 page EIS. Gov. Hogan not happy.

[davewiecking]

Record of Decision released. USDOT independent review finds no scientific fraud in toll lane traffic modeling


https://oplanesmd.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/MDOT-MLS-ROD-Release-8.25.2022.pdf

[Plutonic Panda]

Good deal now hopefully they don’t go with the reversible lane crap and add toll lanes in each direction:

https://dcist.com/story/22/08/25/feds-approve-maryland-plan-to-add-toll-lanes-to-parts-of-i-495-i-270/

[kernals12]

So what's the next step?

[Henry]

So what's the next step?

Good deal now hopefully they don’t go with the reversible lane crap and add toll lanes in each direction:

https://dcist.com/story/22/08/25/feds-approve-maryland-plan-to-add-toll-lanes-to-parts-of-i-495-i-270/

I too hope that they build at least one toll lane for each direction. VA already has its own toll lanes open, so this would be a very big help.

[Plutonic Panda]

It looks like they will add two tolled lanes in direction. Thank god!

The plan is now for two tolled lanes to be added to the route in either direction in a bid to tackle the severe congestion that occurs at peak periods.

In addition, widening of Interstate 270 has also been given the go ahead by the FHWA while the American Legion Bridge will also be replaced.

- https://www.worldhighways.com/wh10/news/capital-beltway-widening-go-ahead

[ARMOURERERIC]

Can any of this be under contract before Hogan steps down?

[oscar]

Can any of this be under contract before Hogan steps down?

As noted in the article cited in Plutonic Panda's next-to-last post above, a state board has to sign off on the contract "later this fall". Also per that article, project opponents have five months to file their lawsuits, probably including ones to put on hold any contract Hogan might sign. So the lawfare would start, but not likely end, before Hogan's term expires.   

[Plutonic Panda]

Update:

“Contractor Tutor Perini will handle the design and construction contract for Phase 1 South of the New American Legion Bridge I-270 Traffic Relief Plan in the US state of Maryland.”

- https://www.worldhighways.com/wh10/news/us-bridge-deal-be-handled-tutor-perini

[bluecountry]

Update:

“Contractor Tutor Perini will handle the design and construction contract for Phase 1 South of the New American Legion Bridge I-270 Traffic Relief Plan in the US state of Maryland.”

- https://www.worldhighways.com/wh10/news/us-bridge-deal-be-handled-tutor-perini

They better widen 495 EB where it shrinks to 2 lanes.

[cpzilliacus]

Update:

“Contractor Tutor Perini will handle the design and construction contract for Phase 1 South of the New American Legion Bridge I-270 Traffic Relief Plan in the US state of Maryland.”

- https://www.worldhighways.com/wh10/news/us-bridge-deal-be-handled-tutor-perini

They better widen 495 EB where it shrinks to 2 lanes.

This has never been an issue for the Montgomery County planning staff, the Planning Board or the Montgomery County Council.  None have ever been concerned about it. 

[cpzilliacus]

Update:

“Contractor Tutor Perini will handle the design and construction contract for Phase 1 South of the New American Legion Bridge I-270 Traffic Relief Plan in the US state of Maryland.”

- https://www.worldhighways.com/wh10/news/us-bridge-deal-be-handled-tutor-perini

Tutor Perini had the contract with the Maryland Transportation Authority to replace the badly deteriorated and structurally deficient Canton Viaduct (original opened to traffic in 1957) on I-895 (Baltimore Harbor Tunnel Thruway) just north of the tunnel.  The project required the coordination with at least four railroads (CSX, NS, Canton and a private line) that has tracks under the viaduct.

Tutor Perini also did work in the tunnel tubes themselves, including replacement and repair of the water mains that are used if there's a fire inside one of the tubes.

IMO the project was completed in a reasonable time - without an excessive number of change orders and the replacement Canton Viaduct should be good for another 50 or 60 years of service.