Economic Forecaster: Proposed Export Import Highway Could Have $20 Billion Econo

[afguy]

Methinks these projections are a wee bit too rosy. Honestly, I feel I-14, if it ever came to reality, plus an extension of I-22 down to Brunswick would help relieve traffic around Metro ATL. I don't really see how an eastward extension of I-16 would help. At best upgrading 74 and 109 to four lanes would help with SOME traffic, but not all.

So says K. C. Conway, Senior VP, Credit Risk Management, SunTrust Banks, Inc. Conway is an economic forecaster who has among other things, briefed the Federal Reserve. He is talking about the Georgia Export/Import Highway, a proposed corridor spanning approximately 80 miles from I-85 near LaGrange to I-75 near Macon, running through Upson County on the way. The corridor could serve as a logical east-west continuation of I-16 and a parallel alternative to I-20, providing a direct route across the state from the Port of Savannah to Central West Georgia.

Conway was the guest speaker at the Thomaston-Upson Chamber of Commerce's October Lunch & Learn, held at The Rock Ranch and sponsored by the Three Rivers Regional Commission.

Conway said the export-import highway would not just serve Georgia, but would serve the nation as a key route between the Port of Savannah and intermodal container facilities.

"Fewer rail cars are on the railroads each month, but intermodal containers are going up at a steady rate,"  Conway said. "We're getting things off of trucks. Everything is getting more congested, and that's one of the big arguments for this export-import highway. We need a relief valve from Atlanta, and we need a more direct path to get from Savannah through Macon and south of Atlanta where the intermodal facility is. Right now it has to come in on I-285 and fight its way all the way around Atlanta's congestion and growth. So we have this great intermodal facility and this great international airport that is saying they don't want any more air cargo, which is not as profitable as air passengers. So air cargo is getting pushed out of Atlanta and trucks can't get through.

"Intermodal is taking a container off a ship or off a tractor-trailer, and putting it on rail. Atlanta has a great intermodal facility, but if we don't solve the traffic solution between there and the ports, I think you're going to see it move to Alabama or South Carolina. They are also developing one in Winter Haven, Florida, between Orlando and Tampa, for everything coming out of Miami and Jacksonville. And they're developing the largest one in the country in Ellwood, Illinois, out past Chicago. Seventeen miles of rail track, with machinery that can move seven containers a minute from trucks to trains."

http://thomastontimes.com/news/1565/georgia-exportimport-highway-needed

[Rothman]

Projections of economic development related to building interstates is notoriously "rosy."  See I-86 in the Southern Tier.  There was some silly study about ten years ago that said that some billions would be realized in the Southern Tier itself.

I suppose they can argue that I-86 isn't complete yet, but NY 17, especially now that Parksville is done, should have had some part of the effect come into reality, I sure.

...

I'm just waiting for more calls for the Rooftop now that ALCOA is closing its smelter(s) in Massena, NY, but I digress.

[Henry]

Projections of economic development related to building interstates is notoriously "rosy."  See I-86 in the Southern Tier.  There was some silly study about ten years ago that said that some billions would be realized in the Southern Tier itself.

I suppose they can argue that I-86 isn't complete yet, but NY 17, especially now that Parksville is done, should have had some part of the effect come into reality, I sure.

...

I'm just waiting for more calls for the Rooftop now that ALCOA is closing its smelter(s) in Massena, NY, but I digress.

Two words: Pork barrel!

Not to mention that I-73 and I-74 should be changed because they will never go back to the Midwest. That, plus the nonsensical I-69 and its three branches in TX!

[The Ghostbuster]

One should always take future predictions with a grain of salt, regardless of the topic at hand. For proof of that, just look at movies that took place in the future (Back to the Future Part 2, is one example).

[triplemultiplex]

So what about the "Fall Line" corridor GA has been developing?  There's your high-quality trucking route bypassing ATL en route to Savannah.

This project is already done.

[Pete from Boston]

Projections of economic development related to building interstates is notoriously "rosy."  See I-86 in the Southern Tier.  There was some silly study about ten years ago that said that some billions would be realized in the Southern Tier itself.

I suppose they can argue that I-86 isn't complete yet, but NY 17, especially now that Parksville is done, should have had some part of the effect come into reality, I sure.

...

I'm just waiting for more calls for the Rooftop now that ALCOA is closing its smelter(s) in Massena, NY, but I digress.

Two words: Pork barrel!

Not to mention that I-73 and I-74 should be changed because they will never go back to the Midwest. That, plus the nonsensical I-69 and its three branches in TX!

Highway planning seems to have become far more of a legislative pastime in recent years now that the Interstate system is "complete."  This is giving politicians something to boast about, frittering away billions of dollars, and making a mess.

[lordsutch]

So what about the "Fall Line" corridor GA has been developing?  There's your high-quality trucking route bypassing ATL en route to Savannah.

This project is already done.

Well, no. The Milledgeville bypass is still a year+ from completion. And the 30 mph section in Reynolds, the two-lane section in Wrens, and the slogs through suburban Augusta and Macon (and increasing development east of Alt US 27 in Columbus, thanks to GDOT's complete lack of access management on much of the corridor) don't exactly meet the "high quality trucking corridor" threshold.

[Tom958]

I think this is the fourth time I've made the same point about this project...

Highway planning seems to have become far more of a legislative pastime in recent years now that the Interstate system is "complete."  This is giving politicians something to boast about, frittering away billions of dollars, and making a mess.

As a general rule, yes. However, for this particular project-- including the remaining four laning of US 27 north of LaGrange-- the Georgia Statewide Freight & Logistics Action Plan, the benefit/cost ratio would be quite astounding. Details may be found on pages 48 and 49 of this document, which compares various projects including ones with a negative B/C ratio. Not just below one-- negative.

I'm skeptical, but the data I've seen so far seems to warrant further investigation-- not just roadgeekly musings, but an actual project scoping study. This bank guy seems to think so, too.

[codyg1985]

Just exactly how much traffic the proposed road would take off of the Atlanta freeway system? To me it sounds like the benefit the authors of the article suggest is that it would take enough traffic out of Atlanta in order to make the Atlanta intermodal facilities and the Atlanta airport more attractive for shippers.

Also, what happens if gas prices go up a lot? Would shipping containers by rail become more attractive again, reducing the need for this road?

It just seems like pork barrel spending to me. Yeah it would be kind of neat to see I-16 extended west to not only LaGrange, but west of Montgomery to Meridian. However, I don't really know how much benefit it would actually bring other than maybe creating a more direct corridor between Dallas, TX and the Port of Savannah.

[silverback1065]

Projections of economic development related to building interstates is notoriously "rosy."  See I-86 in the Southern Tier.  There was some silly study about ten years ago that said that some billions would be realized in the Southern Tier itself.

I suppose they can argue that I-86 isn't complete yet, but NY 17, especially now that Parksville is done, should have had some part of the effect come into reality, I sure.

...

I'm just waiting for more calls for the Rooftop now that ALCOA is closing its smelter(s) in Massena, NY, but I digress.

I agree. They always seem to be WAY off in their projections.  They are only used to convince the lawmakers to build though.