Coronavirus pandemic

[Max Rockatansky]

So, I was in Mexico last week, and travel was rather more stressful than usual.  This was a church mission trip, our family plus two other gentlemen.  It was originally planned for October but got postponed to Spring Break.

Although everything seems to have worked out fine, I'm surprised that you didn't postpone the trip again. Or just straight-up cancel it. Especially with how risky the border situation was.

I've been seeing people in my area canceling holidays/vacations right and left. To hear that you drove literally a thousand miles in each direction for a mission trip doesn't seem to have been advisable. But I'm also not religious, and don't necessarily understand the importance of missions.

Honestly if I did have work to tie me down I probably would want to be in Mexico during things like what is going on now.  I'm not saying the virus won't spread but I don't see the same level of constant media attention driving through panic like it did in the U.S.   Granted I'm more familiar with rural Jalisco, it seems that family there is handling potential uncertainty far more rationally than they are State Side. 

[kphoger]

Although everything seems to have worked out fine, I'm surprised that you didn't postpone the trip again. Or just straight-up cancel it. Especially with how risky the border situation was.

I've been seeing people in my area canceling holidays/vacations right and left. To hear that you drove literally a thousand miles in each direction for a mission trip doesn't seem to have been advisable. But I'm also not religious, and don't necessarily understand the importance of missions.

A few things...

(1)  We were traveling to a place with less prevalence of the coronavirus.  In that sense, you could say it was safer to travel than to stay home.  By the time we left Wichita, there had already been one positive case in town here (a resident of a neighboring county treated at a Wichita hospital)–whereas, in Coahuila, there have still been zero cases within 90 miles of our destination.

(2)  The rumors of border closings didn't start until literally two days before we left.  I mean, our family was already half-packed when we heard the first inklings of anything.  By the time I read that news article (which really wasn't anything), the rooftop cargo box was already loaded and strapped to the top of the car.  This is perhaps the most pertinent point:  we had no clue the border might be an issue until right before we left.  In fact, just a couple of weeks earlier, the US government had specifically stated it wouldn't be closing the border.

(3)  This wasn't just an evangelistic mission trip.  We had promised to demolish an old deteriorating roof and provide funds for new construction in order to help meet government regulations.  Considering that Mexico hadn't yet decided to close the schools (which they did while we were there), inspectors were expected to show up not long after our trip.

I'm not saying the virus won't spread but I don't see the same level of constant media attention driving through panic like it did in the U.S.   Granted I'm more familiar with rural Jalisco, it seems that family there is handling potential uncertainty far more rationally than they are State Side. 

A lot of people in Mexico are spreading the rumor that the cornoavirus is just a big political stunt in the USA and that it isn't really a problem.  At least, that's what they had been saying until last week.  With all of the shutdowns and everything going on there now, I'm betting the people are starting to figure out it's a real thing.  I know I wasn't able to escape conversations about the virus:  both a local pastor and the children's home director brought it up in conversation with me, and the director mentioned that a lot of people are worried about their personal financial situations and also the national economy.

I suspect that's a big change since you were there, even recently.

[Max Rockatansky]

In the last couple weeks we've gotten a lot of calls from family in Jalisco asking about what is going on state side.  The biggest point of concern was that they thought "Stay at home"  was a serious actual lockdown inside your home.  I know that around Zacoalco they were talking about dismissing school for a couple weeks but I don't know if that has actually happened.  Most of our family can't close their shops since that is where they draw their entire income from and I don't think that they would unless there was some serious outside intervention.  I'll have to ask my wife how things were during the Swine Flu, everybody seems oddly (by the standards I see daily) chill and more concerned we can't get out of the house. 

But to your point, yes people are "actually"  at least seriously talking about the virus in our family circle now.  When I was down there it was nothing but Corona Beer Virus jokes. 

[oscar]

Honestly if I did have work to tie me down I probably would want to be in Mexico during things like what is going on now.  I’m not saying the virus won’t spread but I don’t see the same level of constant media attention driving through panic like it did in the U.S.   Granted I’m more familiar with rural Jalisco, it seems that family there is handling potential uncertainty far more rationally than they are State Side. 

ISTM that, on average, rural areas are safer than urban areas.

My solo road trip earlier this month to Georgia and the Carolinas (started before the virus panics and hassles escalated during the last few days of my trip) mostly avoided urban areas like where I reside. So getting out of town might've reduced my risks. It helped that I didn't go down to south Florida for some beach time like I usually do on winter road trips, giving priority instead to rural route-clinching with minimum human contact.

Conveniently, the self-checkouts at Walmarts and other big-box stores where I shopped were usually about six feet apart, helping with "social distancing". And I usually used drive-thrus at fast-food restaurants (even before the dine-in seating areas started closing), except sandwich shops which often don't have drive-thrus.

[kphoger]

I know that around Zacoalco they were talking about dismissing school for a couple weeks but I don't know if that has actually happened. 

Yes.  All Mexican schools are on the same schedule, so what happens happens nationwide.  School is now suspended for at least a month.  I seem to remember hearing a return date in May, but my memory is fuzzy on that.  It was announced last week.  Monday of last week was a school holiday, and we expected the kids to go to school Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday while we were there.  It turns out we got to be with them every day, because classes in town never resumed.  Secondary school students were allowed to pick up their schoolwork, whereas primary school students had to have a parent or guardian get it for them the next day.

[Max Rockatansky]

Honestly if I did have work to tie me down I probably would want to be in Mexico during things like what is going on now.  I'm not saying the virus won't spread but I don't see the same level of constant media attention driving through panic like it did in the U.S.   Granted I'm more familiar with rural Jalisco, it seems that family there is handling potential uncertainty far more rationally than they are State Side. 

ISTM that, on average, rural areas are safer than urban areas.

My road trip earlier this month to Georgia and the Carolinas (started before the virus panics and hassles escalated during the last few days of my trip) mostly avoided urban areas like where I reside. So getting out of town might've reduced my risks. It helped that I didn't go down to south Florida for some beach time like I usually do on winter road trips, giving priority instead to rural route-clinching with minimum human contact.

Conveniently, the self-checkouts at Walmarts and other big-box stores where I shopped were usually about six feet apart, helping with "social distancing".

Perhaps, technically I live in the City of Fresno but I might as well be out in unincorporated Fresno County.  I went to the Sanger Walmart to buy weights the night Fresno declared "stay at home"  and it was very chill compared what I've seen elsewhere.  Even Fresno is far more "business as usual"  compared to the larger cities like Los Angeles and the Bay Area, comparatively our traffic drop is nominal. 

Out in Firebaugh there has been some problems with people supply hoarding and attempting to steal from homes.  Lemoore, Hanford, Visalia, and Madera all kind of have a Fresno-like atmosphere to them.  I kind of wonder how things are out in far off places like; King City, Avenal, Corcoran, and others like it?  As far as I know Fresno was the first city in the Central Valley to declare stay at home.  The counties seem to have been the ones pursuing the National Parks to close.  I still don't think Pinnacles has closed on the San Benito County side yet, but if you're willing to go that far out into the middle of nowhere on CA 25 you deserve to hike if you want to. 

To that end, I feel comfortable enough taking a trip to places like Sierra County like I had planned.  The virus stuff is definitely on minds but it isn't quite the reality of what dense urban cores are seeing. 

[noelbotevera]

I've thoroughly recovered from my bought of flu (okay, some coughing, sniffles, and a rash due to too much medicine) so decided to do some stuff over this week. Some notes:

• Went to Cowan's Gap State Park, a thirty minute drive. Walked a trail around the lake and noted there were mostly elderly people there. Odd.
• Went out today to buy dinner. Nothing out of the ordinary except that food was delivered drive-in style; we had to order through the drive thru and the food was delivered to us.
• VMSes telling us to stay in. Whoops.

School is further delayed until April 14th and based on the PA cases I fully expect the rest of the school year to be cancelled. AP tests have been cancelled -- more or less -- forcing us to take a 45 minute mini version at home.

Addendum: I think the US will definitely have 100k cases before the month is over. Considering testing is ramping up, we're probably going to discover (some too late) cases that previously went under the radar. For what it's worth, I got tested on March 19th and was expecting a phone call yesterday (3-4 business days) but still haven't gotten a response, meaning that rural responses seem a little slow.

[Max Rockatansky]

I know that around Zacoalco they were talking about dismissing school for a couple weeks but I don't know if that has actually happened. 

Yes.  All Mexican schools are on the same schedule, so what happens happens nationwide.  School is now suspended for at least a month.  I seem to remember hearing a return date in May, but my memory is fuzzy on that.  It was announced last week.  Monday of last week was a school holiday, and we expected the kids to go to school Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday while we were there.  It turns out we got to be with them every day, because classes in town never resumed.  Secondary school students were allowed to pick up their schoolwork, whereas primary school students had to have a parent or guardian get it for them the next day.

At least they have some school work, the schools here didn't do anything locally.  We were putting our niece through the 5th Grade this year and now we're the ones basically having to give her homework.  Granted the close proximity to schools to homes probably helps a ton down there. 

[bing101]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/new-york-new-orleans-hospitals-reel-as-u-s-leads-world-in-coronavirus-cases-idUSKBN21D1ZR




Update the USA now has the most COVID-19 Reports.

[AlexandriaVA]

Addendum: I think the US will definitely have 100k cases before the month is over.

Try by the end of tomorrow (Friday)

[Duke87]

On a totally unrelated note, what are those who are getting their stimulus checks planning to do with them? Any road-related thoughts? I may rent a car and go county-collecting or route-clinching.

With non-essential travel banned in both New York and Massachusetts, and states one by one implementing rules that anyone who arrives from the NYC metro area must be quarantined... I'm not going anywhere until those restrictions go away.

I have no particular intention of altering my spending on account of any extra money we may receive from the IRS anyway. It may come in handy if one of us experiences a loss of income before this is over - no hints of such occurring yet, but at this point I take nothing for granted.

[Max Rockatansky]

Addendum: I think the US will definitely have 100k cases before the month is over.

Try by the end of tomorrow (Friday)

You all realize this is mostly tests results that are coming back almost at once?  The published confirmed number isn't really indicative of the true infection rate. The real infection rate probably can never really be accurately quantified and is likely several times what is being reported. 

[ftballfan]

As of now, only Kansas, Oklahoma, and Virginia have officially cancelled the rest of the school year. AFAIK, all three of those states are early-out states, as in their school year normally ends around (or even before) Memorial Day. I think many states will end up canceling the rest of the school year, with some rural states (especially those whose school year normally runs into June) returning to school sometime in mid to late April.

[LM117]

https://twitter.com/GovAbbott/status/1243279807179370496

[sprjus4]

AFAIK, all three of those states are early-out states, as in their school year normally ends around (or even before) Memorial Day.

Can't speak for the rest of the state, but schools in Hampton Roads, Richmond, and Northern Virginia in Virginia all let out in mid-June and begin in September after Labor Day.

[Bruce]

Seattle is largely obeying the stay-at-home order. Things are a bit busier in the suburbs, but people are keeping to themselves.

https://twitter.com/EricJensenTV/status/1243339242882793473

[kphoger]

I know that around Zacoalco they were talking about dismissing school for a couple weeks but I don't know if that has actually happened. 

Yes.  All Mexican schools are on the same schedule, so what happens happens nationwide.  School is now suspended for at least a month.  I seem to remember hearing a return date in May, but my memory is fuzzy on that.  It was announced last week.  Monday of last week was a school holiday, and we expected the kids to go to school Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday while we were there.  It turns out we got to be with them every day, because classes in town never resumed.  Secondary school students were allowed to pick up their schoolwork, whereas primary school students had to have a parent or guardian get it for them the next day.

At least they have some school work, the schools here didn't do anything locally.  We were putting our niece through the 5th Grade this year and now we're the ones basically having to give her homework.  Granted the close proximity to schools to homes probably helps a ton down there. 

Business as usual for our children, considering they're home-schooled already.  They did homework while we were in Mexico, and they're doing homework now.  In fact, it's actually better for them because the daycare kids aren't around to distract them from their work.

[jakeroot]

Although everything seems to have worked out fine, I'm surprised that you didn't postpone the trip again. Or just straight-up cancel it. Especially with how risky the border situation was.

I've been seeing people in my area canceling holidays/vacations right and left. To hear that you drove literally a thousand miles in each direction for a mission trip doesn't seem to have been advisable. But I'm also not religious, and don't necessarily understand the importance of missions.

A few things...

(1)  We were traveling to a place with less prevalence of the coronavirus.  In that sense, you could say it was safer to travel than to stay home, and avoid all contact beyond absolutely necessary trips.  By the time we left Wichita, there had already been one positive case in town here (a resident of a neighboring county treated at a Wichita hospital)–whereas, in Coahuila, there have still been zero cases within 90 miles of our destination.

I don't really think that's how it works. When there's an airborne virus, the point is not to flood towards somewhere that has no virus, but to simply stay put within one's home (reducing exposure). I've not seen any of my extended family for almost two weeks now, as we've been "quarantined" within our homes. My quarantine started last week after a visit to my friend's house, who had recently visited a casino. Basic things like that are getting people labeled as "morons" up here right now. Taking a driving vacation? You'd be locked up in a mental hospital.

The issue with travelling with a virus, as I see it, is with whom you come into contact with during the journey. Maybe there weren't any confirmed cases along your journey, but there's also been very little testing in those areas. Back when you took the trip? Probably no testing at all. There was 1 confirmed case in a neighboring county, but what about those with unconfirmed cases?

(2)  The rumors of border closings didn't start until literally two days before we left.  I mean, our family was already half-packed when we heard the first inklings of anything.  By the time I read that news article (which really wasn't anything), the rooftop cargo box was already loaded and strapped to the top of the car.  This is perhaps the most pertinent point:  we had no clue the border might be an issue until right before we left.  In fact, just a couple of weeks earlier, the US government had specifically stated it wouldn't be closing the border.

I mean, still. You left your house having heard rumblings of a possible border closure. I get if you were taking a day trip, but you undertook a 2000 mile journey with the understanding that you might get stuck. That just seems risky as hell, especially with things changing everyday. I would have taken the time to unpack, frankly.

I'm not trying to be overly critical, but I feel like a ton of the issues with this country and coronavirus has been our inability to comprehend basic consequences from simple tasks like going to the gas station, or walking along a sidewalk near other people. People jogging by are putting the rest of us at risk from their excessive breathing. This is serious stuff. Think about all those people that you came into contact with during your journey, physically and verbally. Are you 100% sure that none of them had the virus? I suppose there's no way to be sure, but then that leads back to my original point: why risk it at all?

[AlexandriaVA]

Addendum: I think the US will definitely have 100k cases before the month is over.

Try by the end of tomorrow (Friday)

You all realize this is mostly tests results that are coming back almost at once?  The published confirmed number isn't really indicative of the true infection rate. The real infection rate probably can never really be accurately quantified and is likely several times what is being reported.

I agree with you. I was merely referring to the *confirmed* total. We are almost certainly in the hundreds of thousands right now in reality (just unconfirmed)

[webny99]

Popping onto the forum for a minute after a bit of a break...  I've had a lot on my mind lately.

So, I was in Mexico last week, and travel was rather more stressful than usual.  This was a church mission trip, our family plus two other gentlemen.  It was originally planned for October but got postponed to Spring Break.

Welcome back - and glad you made it back safely!
Sounds like the last couple of weeks have been more interesting for you than the rest of us, if not less stressful!

As I see it, the time period from Wed. 03/11 (when all the sports leagues shuttered) to Sun. 03/15 was basically when the reality of the situation hit us here in the US. Before that Wednesday, it was not being taken seriously by many people, including our own government, and by that Sunday, it was clear that we had a serious crisis on our hands, and the week were heading into was going to be an unprecedented one on many levels.

All that is to say, only about a week separated "business as usual" (not batting an eyelash about international travel) and "shutdown mode" (international travel strongly discouraged if not restricted or banned). Your trip happened to be scheduled to start during the week that everything was in limbo: I have no idea what I would have done in that situation, so I certainly can't criticize your decision. (I'm happy to watch from the sidelines as it gets hashed over though!  )

[wxfree]

I wonder how the toll road finances are doing, especially the companies and authorities that recently built new and incredibly expensive managed lanes.  Those projects have high debt loads and payments to make, but drivers have little reason to choose the tolled alternative because of much lower traffic.

[AlexandriaVA]

I wonder how the toll road finances are doing, especially the companies and authorities that recently built new and incredibly expensive managed lanes.  Those projects have high debt loads and payments to make, but drivers have little reason to choose the tolled alternative because of much lower traffic.

Obviously traffic counts are going to be way down, particularly in metropolitan areas. The best thing that toll operators have going for them are either going to be debt payment suspensions, or taking advantage of the ludicrously cheap loan market right now.

[wxfree]

Here's an interesting idea.  This restaurant had a unique family pack deal.

https://www.facebook.com/BlueMesaGrill/photos/a.174444237637/10158494731907638/?type=3&theater

[RobbieL2415]

Couple quick takes:

1) How is TX going to realistically enforce a mandatory quarantine for folks travelling by car from CT, NJ, NY or RI?  I get that that's a minority of travelers but the virus can still spread that way?

2) There's no way to enforce any executive order limiting travel if you're driving because you would have to already be breaking a traffic law to get pulled over.

[wxfree]

Couple quick takes:

1) How is TX going to realistically enforce a mandatory quarantine for folks travelling by car from CT, NJ, NY or RI?  I get that that's a minority of travelers but the virus can still spread that way?

2) There's no way to enforce any executive order limiting travel if you're driving because you would have to already be breaking a traffic law to get pulled over.

Law is always a last resort.  You would hope that people wouldn't steal because it's wrong.  After that, you would hope that people wouldn't steal because they don't want anyone to steal from them.  For the most reprobate, you need laws, so that people won't steal because they don't want to be punished.  If I'm under an order to stay home and leave only for essential purposes and I go to a store, no one is going to search my home to verify that I legitimately needed to go to a store.  But we should expect that people will behave responsibly and not put other people in danger.  This is similar to the language in TxDOT's speed limit guidance, which doesn't say that speed limits are absolute, but says that the purpose of speed limits is to inform drivers of what speed is safe for the roads.  We then hope that drivers will take the guidance seriously.  The enforcement is the hope that you don't want to contribute to the harm and death of other people.  If you don't care about that, then only the most draconian of laws can stop you.