To be clear, this is not the results of the 2020 census, it's an estimate of population based on a mix of surveys and administrative data, so there's a margin of error. The page is here (https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/research/evaluation-estimates.html). The relevant information is the first excel spreadsheet listed. To see how the population of each state grew, insert the formula =n5/m5 into cell o5, then drag it down for all the states. Then you'll want to highlight columns B through L, right click and press hide so you can easily see state names
The most notable takeaway is that our population grew by just .35%, the slowest since year to year estimates became available in 1900, and probably the slowest ever. A whopping 16 states saw their population decline: Alaska, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and West Virginia.
New York saw the biggest loss at .6%. California's decline perhaps isn't surprising, but it's still shocking. Also, the data only goes up to July 1, so it misses much of the impact of the pandemic.
I have mixed feelings about this. On the one hand, it means less traffic and cheaper housing, but there's something exciting about population growth as new homes, businesses, schools and roads are built, an excitement that we will no longer have.
But hey, the last baby boom was completely unexpected (https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1936/06/07/87945208.html), so maybe another one is just around the corner.
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PM
California's decline perhaps isn't surprising, but it's still shocking.
If it's shocking, then surely it's also surprising, right?
I don't know that I'd put too much faith in these estimates. I'd rather wait for the official results.
Quote from: webny99 on December 28, 2020, 02:28:16 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PM
California's decline perhaps isn't surprising, but it's still shocking.
If it's shocking, then surely it's also surprising, right?
I don't know that I'd put too much faith in these estimates. I'd rather wait for the official results.
It's shocking because for so long California has been visualized as a state people move to, not from. It's unsurprising because in recent years between traffic and insane housing costs, there's a lot more pushing people out than in.
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 02:52:38 PM
Quote from: webny99 on December 28, 2020, 02:28:16 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PM
California's decline perhaps isn't surprising, but it's still shocking.
If it's shocking, then surely it's also surprising, right?
I don't know that I'd put too much faith in these estimates. I'd rather wait for the official results.
It's shocking because for so long California has been visualized as a state people move to, not from. It's unsurprising because in recent years between traffic and insane housing costs, there's a lot more pushing people out than in.
All the while others arrive to exploit the niche left by the void.
Seriously though, a lot of that population shift hasn't gone very far. Phoenix, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, and Boise are all seeing a large influx of urban California residents. That's not a new phenomenon but probably has been accelerated unnaturally this year.
Every state I've ever lived in is shrinking. I feel guilty.
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 03:12:08 PM
Every state I've ever lived in is shrinking. I feel guilty.
Heh, I'm from Michigan and that's the undisputed grand champion of declining U.S. States.
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on December 28, 2020, 03:28:33 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 03:12:08 PM
Every state I've ever lived in is shrinking. I feel guilty.
Heh, I'm from Michigan and that's the undisputed grand champion of declining U.S. States.
Michigan is in black on a 10-year scale, 2010 to 2020. WV, IL, CT, VT, NY and MS have estimated decline both 2019-2020 and over the 10 year period.
NY, for one, would probably be even worse if upstate and NYC are considered separately - with NYC getting a strong boost from immigration
Quote from: kalvado on December 28, 2020, 04:29:16 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on December 28, 2020, 03:28:33 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 03:12:08 PM
Every state I've ever lived in is shrinking. I feel guilty.
Heh, I'm from Michigan and that's the undisputed grand champion of declining U.S. States.
Michigan is in black on a 10-year scale, 2010 to 2020. WV, IL, CT, VT, NY and MS have estimated decline both 2019-2020 and over the 10 year period.
NY, for one, would probably be even worse if upstate and NYC are considered separately - with NYC getting a strong boost from immigration
Yes, MI as of late has begun to stabilize from the heights of it's economic decline. What I find fascinating is that the state is starting to recover and its something that can be observed every time I visit this past decade. Even downtown Detroit has begun to become more and more vibrant every time I see it. It was weird seeing shops and a street car line on Woodward last year, it felt alien to anything I had seen in living memory.
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PMAlaska, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and West Virginia.
There's a common thread connecting those states in bold. High taxes are a dead giveaway. There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.
Pennsylvania and Ohio probably have multiple reasons for their decline. Vermont as well. As for West Virginia, the decline of the coal industry has to be a major factor, but I'd think the eastern panhandle would be growing as people escape the DC area and Loudon County.
Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PMAlaska, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and West Virginia.
There's a common thread connecting those states in bold. High taxes are a dead giveaway. There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.
Pennsylvania and Ohio probably have multiple reasons for their decline. Vermont as well. As for West Virginia, the decline of the coal industry has to be a major factor, but I'd think the eastern panhandle would be growing as people escape the DC area and Loudon County.
Massachusetts is not an exceptionally high tax state, it's just above average. And Alaska has literally the lowest taxes of any state (before counting those dividend checks)
Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PMAlaska, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and West Virginia.
There's a common thread connecting those states in bold. High taxes are a dead giveaway. There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.
You bolded 7 of 16 states. Less than half.
Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
As for West Virginia, the decline of the coal industry has to be a major factor, but I'd think the eastern panhandle would be growing as people escape the DC area and Loudon County.
The eastern panhandle growth is not nearly enough to outweigh the effects of the war on coal. It is only 3 counties, and then you run into mountains that is the limit of that growth.
The governor really wants to eliminate income tax on retirement, which would probably cause a lot of swamp lifers to look at the area as close enough to home.
Quote from: 1 on December 29, 2020, 01:41:30 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PMAlaska, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and West Virginia.
There's a common thread connecting those states in bold. High taxes are a dead giveaway. There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.
You bolded 7 of 16 states. Less than half.
Those 7 states also have 1/3 of the US population.
Quote from: kernals12 on December 29, 2020, 12:33:27 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PMAlaska, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and West Virginia.
There's a common thread connecting those states in bold. High taxes are a dead giveaway. There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.
Pennsylvania and Ohio probably have multiple reasons for their decline. Vermont as well. As for West Virginia, the decline of the coal industry has to be a major factor, but I'd think the eastern panhandle would be growing as people escape the DC area and Loudon County.
Massachusetts is not an exceptionally high tax state, it's just above average. And Alaska has literally the lowest taxes of any state (before counting those dividend checks)
Says the person just out of college that doesn't pay property taxes, income taxes, etc...
Quote from: SectorZ on December 29, 2020, 02:58:49 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 29, 2020, 12:33:27 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PMAlaska, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and West Virginia.
There's a common thread connecting those states in bold. High taxes are a dead giveaway. There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.
Pennsylvania and Ohio probably have multiple reasons for their decline. Vermont as well. As for West Virginia, the decline of the coal industry has to be a major factor, but I'd think the eastern panhandle would be growing as people escape the DC area and Loudon County.
Massachusetts is not an exceptionally high tax state, it's just above average. And Alaska has literally the lowest taxes of any state (before counting those dividend checks)
Says the person just out of college that doesn't pay property taxes, income taxes, etc...
Wouldn't want that getting in the way of a good narrative...
Quote from: SectorZ on December 29, 2020, 02:58:49 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 29, 2020, 12:33:27 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PMAlaska, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and West Virginia.
There's a common thread connecting those states in bold. High taxes are a dead giveaway. There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.
Pennsylvania and Ohio probably have multiple reasons for their decline. Vermont as well. As for West Virginia, the decline of the coal industry has to be a major factor, but I'd think the eastern panhandle would be growing as people escape the DC area and Loudon County.
Massachusetts is not an exceptionally high tax state, it's just above average. And Alaska has literally the lowest taxes of any state (before counting those dividend checks)
Says the person just out of college that doesn't pay property taxes, income taxes, etc...
Quote from: SectorZ on December 29, 2020, 02:58:49 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 29, 2020, 12:33:27 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PMAlaska, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and West Virginia.
There's a common thread connecting those states in bold. High taxes are a dead giveaway. There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.
Pennsylvania and Ohio probably have multiple reasons for their decline. Vermont as well. As for West Virginia, the decline of the coal industry has to be a major factor, but I'd think the eastern panhandle would be growing as people escape the DC area and Loudon County.
Massachusetts is not an exceptionally high tax state, it's just above average. And Alaska has literally the lowest taxes of any state (before counting those dividend checks)
Says the person just out of college that doesn't pay property taxes, income taxes, etc...
According to this:
https://wallethub.com/edu/states-with-highest-lowest-tax-burden/20494
Massachusetts is #22 for tax burden, behind Kentucky and Kansas. In New England, only New Hampshire has a lower tax burden.
CA shrinking is to be expected, since the housing stock isn't being adequately expanded and thus prices are going up higher than most can afford.
I wouldn't have 100% faith in the actual Census results released next year due to how botched the census was. Due to the pandemic delay (with non-response followup happening from August to October) and the shortened timeline (by a few weeks during the last big push), there will be a lot of undercounted communities, especially in rural and remote areas. Quite a few people were also lost in the shuffle due to them moving after the April 1 count date but before they were able to respond via phone/web form/mail/in-person.
As one of the boots on the ground for the Census, I can say that a lot of the non-respondents (old and young alike) just didn't know what the Census is. Quite disappointing, but to be expected of our failed education system.
Quote from: SP Cook on December 29, 2020, 02:11:46 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
As for West Virginia, the decline of the coal industry has to be a major factor, but I'd think the eastern panhandle would be growing as people escape the DC area and Loudon County.
The eastern panhandle growth is not nearly enough to outweigh the effects of the war on coal. It is only 3 counties, and then you run into mountains that is the limit of that growth.
The governor really wants to eliminate income tax on retirement, which would probably cause a lot of swamp lifers to look at the area as close enough to home.
Connecticut is doing that already. I wonder what impact that might have.
^^^^^^^ Illinois already does not tax retirement income, and people still leave the state to retire in Arizona, Florida, wherever
Take that nice IL Taxpayer-funded Pension (for Public Employees) and make sure that money isn't spent in Illinois
Quote from: Bruce on December 29, 2020, 04:15:44 PM
CA shrinking is to be expected, since the housing stock isn't being adequately expanded and thus prices are going up higher than most can afford.
I wouldn't have 100% faith in the actual Census results released next year due to how botched the census was. Due to the pandemic delay (with non-response followup happening from August to October) and the shortened timeline (by a few weeks during the last big push), there will be a lot of undercounted communities, especially in rural and remote areas. Quite a few people were also lost in the shuffle due to them moving after the April 1 count date but before they were able to respond via phone/web form/mail/in-person.
As one of the boots on the ground for the Census, I can say that a lot of the non-respondents (old and young alike) just didn't know what the Census is. Quite disappointing, but to be expected of our failed education system.
These people also demand their privacy. (Ignore the Ring doorbell camera they share with the world, and their cell phone noting their exact placement on Earth at any given time.)
Yeah, the irony of trusting a megacorp with a 300-page "privacy" agreement that you likely didn't bother to read but not a vetted government employee who faces huge fines and/or prison time for disclosing any personally identifiable information for the next 72 years...
Quote from: jeffandnicole on December 29, 2020, 05:07:38 PM
Quote from: Bruce on December 29, 2020, 04:15:44 PM
CA shrinking is to be expected, since the housing stock isn't being adequately expanded and thus prices are going up higher than most can afford.
I wouldn't have 100% faith in the actual Census results released next year due to how botched the census was. Due to the pandemic delay (with non-response followup happening from August to October) and the shortened timeline (by a few weeks during the last big push), there will be a lot of undercounted communities, especially in rural and remote areas. Quite a few people were also lost in the shuffle due to them moving after the April 1 count date but before they were able to respond via phone/web form/mail/in-person.
As one of the boots on the ground for the Census, I can say that a lot of the non-respondents (old and young alike) just didn't know what the Census is. Quite disappointing, but to be expected of our failed education system.
These people also demand their privacy. (Ignore the Ring doorbell camera they share with the world, and their cell phone noting their exact placement on Earth at any given time.)
I'm a 21-year Bureau employee and the hypocrisy of the libertarian-type never ceases to amaze me. I don't think people realize how difficult things would be if everybody refused to do any censuses or surveys.
Quote from: ilpt4u on December 29, 2020, 04:57:35 PM
^^^^^^^ Illinois already does not tax retirement income, and people still leave the state to retire in Arizona, Florida, wherever
Take that nice IL Taxpayer-funded Pension (for Public Employees) and make sure that money isn't spent in Illinois
And it's not due to the weather. More people from Illinois settle in other, adjoining Midwestern states than to the South and Southwest.
Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.
Florida allows one to retain one's residence after a bankruptcy.
Quote from: Brandon on December 29, 2020, 08:34:14 PM
Quote from: ilpt4u on December 29, 2020, 04:57:35 PM
^^^^^^^ Illinois already does not tax retirement income, and people still leave the state to retire in Arizona, Florida, wherever
Take that nice IL Taxpayer-funded Pension (for Public Employees) and make sure that money isn't spent in Illinois
And it's not due to the weather. More people from Illinois settle in other, adjoining Midwestern states than to the South and Southwest.
Yeah, my realtor texts me at least once a month letting me know he's looking for homes in my area for buyers from Cook County.
Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PMAlaska, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and West Virginia.
There's a common thread connecting those states in bold. High taxes are a dead giveaway. There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.
Pennsylvania and Ohio probably have multiple reasons for their decline. Vermont as well. As for West Virginia, the decline of the coal industry has to be a major factor, but I'd think the eastern panhandle would be growing as people escape the DC area and Loudon County.
The Eastern Panhandle might grow more if there was direct freeway access to it from DC. Right now, the best you can do is to take I-270 to Frederick and then US-340 to Jefferson County, WV. The MARC train is there and goes to Union Station but it's still an almost 2 hour train ride.
Charles Town, WV is still 70-80 miles from downtown DC so a freeway can only do so much. Given proximity, Jefferson County is really the only Eastern Panhandle county that can really be impacted by DC. If anything, I expect Baltimore and Richmond to be the biggest beneficiaries of people trying to escape the DC area. They're lower cost of living places that are still urban and relatively close to DC for people who work remote but still need to get back to the District for meetings that can't be done remotely.
I agree that the Eastern Panhandle could be a retirement destination for DC workers but that will only lead to modest growth since they won't be bringing kids (who might stay in the state and have their own kids and so on...).
With the construction of Corridor H/US 48, you are seeing a lot more vacation houses springing up near Davis/Thomas, WV. It's a convenient distance from the Washington D.C. metro (and Baltimore and other major cities).
Quote from: kkt on December 29, 2020, 08:39:56 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.
Florida allows one to retain one's residence after a bankruptcy.
So do other states such as Illinois.
I just want to note that for the bottom 80% of the income distribution, tax rates in California are the same or lower than in Texas.
https://itep.org/whopays/
That's because while Texas is a low tax state, the few taxes it does impose are overwhelmingly levied on those with the least ability to pay. Meanwhile, California has its most affluent residents shoulder much of the cost of government.
Ultimately, the migration out of California is probably more due to real estate costs. And California has always been a high tax state, especially before Prop 13.
It seems like moving trends are based on geography, not politics.
MA, CT, RI, NJ: Densely populated, and they have been losing relative importance for decades.
PA, NY: Half in the list above, half in the Rust Belt.
OH, MI: Rust Belt, at least in the areas that are populated.
IL: See point #1 above; 2/3 lives in Chicagoland, so they might want to move outward.
VT: While not densely populated unlike the rest of the Northeast, it's not really a destination to move to.
AK, HI: My guess would be the high cost of living due to being so remote. I'm a bit surprised about AK; I thought its trends were similar to WA/OR/ID and gaining.
WV: Coal is done. The epitome of rural population loss.
MS: There's a whole meme that Mississippi is last in everything. People don't want to live here.
LA: Hurricanes, flooding, and partly the same reason as MS: low quality of life.
CA: This one probably is a function of the state government (they have made some bad decisions, although I think they need a different Democrat for governor, not a Republican). Normally, I would say that extreme urbanization and lack of water are issues, except that the Phoenix area is gaining rapidly despite having both those issues.
If I knew that 16 states were on the list before I saw the list itself, I would have been surprised that AK was on the list and that ME, AL, and KY were off the list.
The 2020 estimates are used to determine apportionment for House seats for the next ten years.
Here are my estimates for how many House seats each state will have from 2023-2033:
Alabama: 7 (no change from 2013-2023)
Alaska: 1 (no change)
Arizona: 10 (+1)
Arkansas: 4 (no change)
California: 52 (-1; CA's first time ever losing a seat)
Colorado: 8 (+1)
Connecticut: 5 (no change)
Delaware: 1 (no change)
Florida: 29 (+2)
Georgia: 14 (no change)
Hawaii: 2 (no change)
Idaho: 2 (no change)
Illinois: 17 (-1)
Indiana: 9 (no change)
Iowa: 4 (no change)
Kansas: 4 (no change)
Kentucky: 6 (no change)
Louisiana: 6 (no change)
Maine: 2 (no change)
Maryland: 8 (no change)
Massachusetts: 9 (no change)
Michigan: 13 (-1)
Minnesota: 7 (-1)
Mississippi: 4 (no change)
Missouri: 8 (no change)
Montana: 1 (no change; so close to getting a second seat)
Nebraska: 3 (no change)
Nevada: 4 (no change)
New Hampshire: 2 (no change)
New Jersey: 12 (no change)
New Mexico: 3 (no change)
New York: 26 (-1; narrowly avoids losing a second seat)
North Carolina: 14 (+1)
North Dakota: 1 (no change)
Ohio: 15 (-1)
Oklahoma: 5 (no change)
Oregon: 6 (+1)
Pennsylvania: 17 (-1)
Rhode Island: 1 (-1)
South Carolina: 7 (no change)
South Dakota: 1 (no change)
Tennessee: 9 (no change)
Texas: 39 (+3)
Utah: 4 (no change)
Vermont: 1 (no change)
Virginia: 11 (no change)
Washington: 10 (no change)
West Virginia: 2 (-1)
Wisconsin: 8 (no change)
Wyoming: 1 (no change)
Quote from: ftballfan on December 30, 2020, 10:06:36 AM
The 2020 estimates are used to determine apportionment for House seats for the next ten years.
No, the 2020 estimates recently released are not what is used to determine apportionment. The official population count from the 2020 Census will be used for that purpose, though the estimates are likely close enough that we can accurately project apportionment.
Quote from: 1 on December 30, 2020, 09:07:34 AM
CA: This one probably is a function of the state government (they have made some bad decisions, although I think they need a different Democrat for governor, not a Republican). Normally, I would say that extreme urbanization and lack of water are issues, except that the Phoenix area is gaining rapidly despite having both those issues.
This is admittedly a small sample size, but everyone I know who has moved from California in the past couple of years (20 or so households) or is actively looking to move has been due to 1) housing costs, and 2) lack of work in an industry double-hit by Coronavirus and AB5 (the bill that made qualifying as an independent contractor much more difficult - it was targeted at the ride-share industry, but ended up harming other industries to a much greater extent).
By moving they're mostly giving up working in their desired/trained profession (since even in non-Coronavirus times there's only a handful of cities in the country where there's much opportunity to make a living in their line of work, and those cities all suffer from the same affordability issues).
Quote from: 1 on December 29, 2020, 01:41:30 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PMAlaska, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and West Virginia.
There's a common thread connecting those states in bold. High taxes are a dead giveaway. There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.
You bolded 7 of 16 states. Less than half.
I'd think weather would play a big role in the ones I did not bold (along with some of the ones I did bold). Plus, the high cost of living in Alaska and Hawaii can't be attractive.I'm not sure where the people in Louisiana and Mississippi are going. I can see Louisiana residents moving to Texas, and Mississippians going to either Tennessee or Florida. For some reason, Tennessee appeals to a lot of people because of its lack of an income tax. But the sales taxes there are too onerous for my liking. I've long said I prefer income taxes to sales taxes.
Quote from: Brandon on December 30, 2020, 07:13:22 AM
Quote from: kkt on December 29, 2020, 08:39:56 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.
Florida allows one to retain one's residence after a bankruptcy.
So do other states such as Illinois.
Bankruptcy is a federal thing, not a state thing.
Quote from: Brandon on December 30, 2020, 07:13:22 AM
Quote from: kkt on December 29, 2020, 08:39:56 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.
Florida allows one to retain one's residence after a bankruptcy.
So do other states such as Illinois.
It looks like Illinois caps the amount of equity that can be protected:
QuoteUnder the Illinois exemption system, a homeowner can exempt up to $15,000 of equity in a home or other property covered by the homestead exemption.
- https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/illinois-bankruptcy-homestead-exemption.html
Compare:
QuoteIn bankruptcy, the Florida homestead exemption allows a primary residence of unlimited value to be protected from creditors as long as the debtor has lived in Florida for 40 months or more, and the property is not larger than half an acre in a municipality or 160 acres elsewhere. If the 40-month residency requirement has not been met, the homestead exemption is capped at $160,375 per federal law.
- https://www.natlbankruptcy.com/chapter-7-bankruptcy-in-florida-what-you-need-to-know/
The only two reasons Twitchy moved his domicile to Florida are: 1. Taxes, and 2. Taxes.
Quote from: Road Hog on December 31, 2020, 10:04:10 PM
The only two reasons Twitchy moved his domicile to Florida are: 1. Taxes, and 2. Taxes.
And because most New Yorkers hate his guts, not least of which the state's Attorney General.
Predictions have been wrong before. In 1936 (https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1936/06/07/87945208.html), the census predicted we'd peak at just 135 million by 1950 and then start to drop. Then came the baby boom. By 1967, the year we smashed through the 200 million mark (https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/1967/demo/p25-359.pdf), the census' most optimistic forecast had nearly half a billion people by 2015. Then came the baby bust. By 1989 (https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1989/02/05/941189.html?pageNumber=30), the census was once again forecasting population decline, with a peak of 302 million in 2038. Appropriately, a demographer at the Census Bureau predicted "we will be wrong". And he was right. There was a huge wave of immigration in the 90s, causing us to pass the 300 million mark in 2006 and a forecast for 400 million by the 2040s. Then fertility rates dropped amidst the recession and haven't recovered and since 2016 immigration has plunged, bringing us to where we are now.
I'm an optimistic person. I think artificial wombs and robot nannies will cause another baby boom.
Quote from: kernals12 on January 16, 2021, 08:44:25 PM
I'm an optimistic person. I think artificial wombs and robot nannies will cause another baby boom.
As someone who works in the cannabis industry, I thank you for your patronage.
Quote from: Scott5114 on January 16, 2021, 11:52:43 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on January 16, 2021, 08:44:25 PM
I'm an optimistic person. I think artificial wombs and robot nannies will cause another baby boom.
As someone who works in the cannabis industry, I thank you for your patronage.
Isn't that just the premise of the Matrix and the Battlestar Galactica reboot merged?
Quote from: Scott5114 on January 16, 2021, 11:52:43 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on January 16, 2021, 08:44:25 PM
I'm an optimistic person. I think artificial wombs and robot nannies will cause another baby boom.
As someone who works in the cannabis industry, I thank you for your patronage.
Whatever it is, it's pretty strong stuff.
Quote from: kernals12 on January 16, 2021, 08:44:25 PM
Then fertility rates dropped amidst the recession and haven't recovered and since 2016 immigration has plunged, bringing us to where we are now.
And the marriage rate among native Millennials and especially the 'Z'/post-Millennial crowd is dropping FAST. That will have an effect, too. Over the next few decades immigration rates from places that still have strong cultural and religious traditions favoring large families will be more and more important in population growth rates.
Mike
There are very few places outside Africa with fertility rates over 2 . The entire world seems headed to 1.7 or less. Some Chinese cities are less than one.
Que sera, sera
Whatever will be, will be
The future's not ours to see
Que sera, sera
What will be, will be
Quote from: kernals12 on January 17, 2021, 04:26:36 PM
Que sera, sera
Whatever will be, will be
The future's not ours to see
Que sera, sera
What will be, will be
I'm pretty confident it isn't going to have birthing pods and Cylon babysitters anytime soon.
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on January 17, 2021, 05:35:25 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on January 17, 2021, 04:26:36 PM
Que sera, sera
Whatever will be, will be
The future's not ours to see
Que sera, sera
What will be, will be
I'm pretty confident it isn't going to have birthing pods and Cylon babysitters anytime soon.
What is soon to you? By 2050, I'm going to ripe middle age.
Quote from: kernals12 on January 17, 2021, 05:45:39 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on January 17, 2021, 05:35:25 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on January 17, 2021, 04:26:36 PM
Que sera, sera
Whatever will be, will be
The future's not ours to see
Que sera, sera
What will be, will be
I'm pretty confident it isn't going to have birthing pods and Cylon babysitters anytime soon.
What is soon to you? By 2050, I'm going to ripe middle age.
It won't be 2050. Out of curiosity what does birth pods and a race of androids servants have to do with the census? Will the Androids be factored into the census?
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on January 17, 2021, 06:07:06 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on January 17, 2021, 05:45:39 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on January 17, 2021, 05:35:25 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on January 17, 2021, 04:26:36 PM
Que sera, sera
Whatever will be, will be
The future's not ours to see
Que sera, sera
What will be, will be
I'm pretty confident it isn't going to have birthing pods and Cylon babysitters anytime soon.
What is soon to you? By 2050, I'm going to ripe middle age.
It won't be 2050. Out of curiosity what does birth pods and a race of androids servants have to do with the census? Will the Androids be factored into the census?
Depends on who is in charge then. The parties will have realigned by then. The Democratic Party will become pro-android, while the Republican party will become anti-android; this is the primary difference between the parties in 2050, even more than liberal/conservative.
Quote from: 1 on January 17, 2021, 07:43:15 PM
Depends on who is in charge then. The parties will have realigned by then. The Democratic Party will become pro-android, while the Republican party will become anti-android; this is the primary difference between the parties in 2050, even more than liberal/conservative.
The Democratic Party will become pro-Android, mostly because they've become a subsidiary of Alphabet. You're forgetting that the former Republican Party will have been renamed to iParty to solidify their anti-Android stance, a casualty of having been bought out by Apple.
This topic has become interesting again. :awesomeface:
The Census 2020 redistricting apportionment totals were released today. This includes the national population total of 331,449,281, as well as the individual state, DC and territorial totals. This data is used to determine the number of seats in the US House of Representatives allocated to each state, based on the total number of 435 seats set by Congress. This figure is typically released on or just before December 31 of the Census year but with COVID delaying the various in-person operations, everything has been pushed back.
States gaining Congressional seats are:
Texas +2
Colorado +1
Florida +1
Montana +1
North Carolina +1
Oregon +1
States losing seats:
California -1
Illinois -1
Michigan -1
New York -1
Ohio -1
Pennsylvania -1
West Virginia -1
Redistricting data, which includes counts down to the block level, is expected to be delivered to the states by August 16. While also a few months later than usual, it will still be in time for all states to redistrict in time for the 2022 Congressional primary elections, and for state legislature elections that occur in 2022. States that have state legislature elections in 2021 will not be able to redistrict in time.
Without getting political, looks like power is shifting from the rust belt to the sun belt.
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 04:49:59 PM
Without getting political, looks like power is shifting from the rust belt to the sun belt.
This is expected, the tax rate is one reason why.
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 04:49:59 PM
Without getting political, looks like power is shifting from the rust belt to the sun belt.
In general yes, but there's also some shifting within the rust belt. In my town, any house listed for sale will get immediate cash offers at $30k or more above list price from people wanting to move from IL. Indiana gained 4.7%, compared to 2.3% for Ohio, 2.0% for Michigan, and Illinois lost 0.1%. It wasn't enough to gain a Congressional seat, but we're in much better shape than the rest of the region.
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 26, 2021, 04:54:39 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 04:49:59 PM
Without getting political, looks like power is shifting from the rust belt to the sun belt.
In general yes, but there's also some shifting within the rust belt. In my town, any house listed for sale will get immediate cash offers at $30k or more above list price from people wanting to move from IL. Indiana gained 4.7%, compared to 2.3% for Ohio, 2.0% for Michigan, and Illinois lost 0.1%. It wasn't enough to gain a Congressional seat, but we're in much better shape than the rest of the region.
Well, they don't call Indiana the Crossroads of America for nothing.
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 04:49:59 PM
Without getting political, looks like power is shifting from the rust belt to the sun belt.
NY managed to find an extra million people, +4.5% over earlier estimate, to avoid loosing a second seat (and almost retained the lost one)
With people leaving NYC during early covid days and visible loss in upstate, I really wonder where those people were hiding...
Quote from: kalvado on April 26, 2021, 05:05:41 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 04:49:59 PM
Without getting political, looks like power is shifting from the rust belt to the sun belt.
NY managed to find an extra million people, +4.5% over earlier estimate, to avoid loosing a second seat (and almost retained the lost one)
With people leaving NYC during early covid days and visible loss in upstate, I really wonder where those people were hiding...
Maybe more people answered the census in New York.
Quote from: kalvado on April 26, 2021, 05:05:41 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 04:49:59 PM
Without getting political, looks like power is shifting from the rust belt to the sun belt.
NY managed to find an extra million people, +4.5% over earlier estimate, to avoid loosing a second seat (and almost retained the lost one)
With people leaving NYC during early covid days and visible loss in upstate, I really wonder where those people were hiding...
Population counts are based on where you lived 4/1/20, so there hadn't really been any shifting due to COVID yet. Also, most of the half million that died did so after that date so they were counted.
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 26, 2021, 04:43:03 PM
States losing seats:
California -1
For the first time ever, I might add.
NY was 89 seats short on its lost seat, which is a shame given that follow-up surveys by enumerators were suspended too early. There were probably thousands in NY who weren't counted in time.
Quote from: Bruce on April 26, 2021, 05:18:51 PM
NY was 89 seats short on its lost seat, which is a shame given that follow-up surveys by enumerators were suspended too early. There were probably thousands in NY who weren't counted in time.
There are backup methodologies for determining population counts for non-responsive households. Non-response has an incredibly minimal impact on the final population counts, although 89 would fall within that "minimal" range.
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 26, 2021, 05:14:17 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 26, 2021, 05:05:41 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 04:49:59 PM
Without getting political, looks like power is shifting from the rust belt to the sun belt.
NY managed to find an extra million people, +4.5% over earlier estimate, to avoid loosing a second seat (and almost retained the lost one)
With people leaving NYC during early covid days and visible loss in upstate, I really wonder where those people were hiding...
Population counts are based on where you lived 4/1/20, so there hadn't really been any shifting due to COVID yet. Also, most of the half million that died did so after that date so they were counted.
Half a million deaths is across US, NY reports 52k covid deaths. This doesn't change +879k people actually counted over the estimate by that much.
Honestly speaking, I would look closely at double counting those who fled city to upstate and were counted in both locations.
Quote from: kalvado on April 26, 2021, 05:05:41 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 04:49:59 PM
Without getting political, looks like power is shifting from the rust belt to the sun belt.
NY managed to find an extra million people, +4.5% over earlier estimate, to avoid loosing a second seat (and almost retained the lost one)
With people leaving NYC during early covid days and visible loss in upstate, I really wonder where those people were hiding...
"Visible loss" is a bit of a stretch, except in rural areas, but those aren't where most of the people are. You'd think upstate was booming judging from the housing market - and there has been a noticeable shift within the state from downstate to upstate. I've been confused for a few years now why all the estimates kept showing upstate in steady decline. I was really hoping that it would self-correct during the census, so I'm glad to see that materialize.
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 05:13:13 PM
Maybe more people answered the census in New York.
Cabiness42 could confirm this, but I don't think the final count is entirely dependent on the response rates. People usually still get counted one way or another even if they don't respond - that's why it's a population "estimate".
Quote from: kalvado on April 26, 2021, 05:25:40 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 26, 2021, 05:14:17 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 26, 2021, 05:05:41 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 04:49:59 PM
Without getting political, looks like power is shifting from the rust belt to the sun belt.
NY managed to find an extra million people, +4.5% over earlier estimate, to avoid loosing a second seat (and almost retained the lost one)
With people leaving NYC during early covid days and visible loss in upstate, I really wonder where those people were hiding...
Population counts are based on where you lived 4/1/20, so there hadn't really been any shifting due to COVID yet. Also, most of the half million that died did so after that date so they were counted.
Half a million deaths is across US, NY reports 52k covid deaths. This doesn't change +879k people actually counted over the estimate by that much.
Honestly speaking, I would look closely at double counting those who fled city to upstate and were counted in both locations.
We have an entire operation that weeds out double responses. It's one of the areas I work with. Unless people are deliberately using different names and ages (to be clear we aren't aware of any reports of this happening on a wide-spread scale), that's something we catch.
Quote from: Bruce on April 26, 2021, 05:18:51 PM
NY was 89 seats short on its lost seat, which is a shame given that follow-up surveys by enumerators were suspended too early. There were probably thousands in NY who weren't counted in time.
Minnesota was the state that held onto all 8 of its seats by the margin of that 89 people.
Quote from: webny99 on April 26, 2021, 05:31:27 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 26, 2021, 05:05:41 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 04:49:59 PM
Without getting political, looks like power is shifting from the rust belt to the sun belt.
NY managed to find an extra million people, +4.5% over earlier estimate, to avoid loosing a second seat (and almost retained the lost one)
With people leaving NYC during early covid days and visible loss in upstate, I really wonder where those people were hiding...
"Visible loss" is a bit of a stretch, except in rural areas, but those aren't where most of the people are. You'd think upstate was booming judging from the housing market - and there has been a noticeable shift within the state from downstate to upstate. I've been confused for a few years now why all the estimates kept showing upstate in steady decline. I was really hoping that it would self-correct during the census, so I'm glad to see that materialize.
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 05:13:13 PM
Maybe more people answered the census in New York.
Cabiness42 could confirm this, but I don't think the final count is entirely dependent on the response rates. People usually still get counted one way or another even if they don't respond - that's why it's a population "estimate".
So, there are two different data products. There are annual estimates which are statistical formulas based on the survey responses of a sample of households. Then there is the every-ten-year Census which is an actual count of every household in the nation. For the households where we never get an actual response from the household, there are other methods for determining the number of people in the household. I don't work in that area, so I don't want to speak to the specifics and get something wrong, but rest assured the error rate is very low. Of course, 89 people out of 20 million is a very low error rate, but if you want that level of accuracy in a 331 million person country it's going to cost trillions and not billions.
It'll be interesting to see the eventual shift in battleground states, especially with losses of seats in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio. It likely won't be much different this decade, but will we begin to see Ohio being less the political Holy Land, giving that title to a place like Arizona or Nevada?
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 26, 2021, 05:33:42 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 26, 2021, 05:25:40 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 26, 2021, 05:14:17 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 26, 2021, 05:05:41 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 04:49:59 PM
Without getting political, looks like power is shifting from the rust belt to the sun belt.
NY managed to find an extra million people, +4.5% over earlier estimate, to avoid loosing a second seat (and almost retained the lost one)
With people leaving NYC during early covid days and visible loss in upstate, I really wonder where those people were hiding...
Population counts are based on where you lived 4/1/20, so there hadn't really been any shifting due to COVID yet. Also, most of the half million that died did so after that date so they were counted.
Half a million deaths is across US, NY reports 52k covid deaths. This doesn't change +879k people actually counted over the estimate by that much.
Honestly speaking, I would look closely at double counting those who fled city to upstate and were counted in both locations.
We have an entire operation that weeds out double responses. It's one of the areas I work with. Unless people are deliberately using different names and ages (to be clear we aren't aware of any reports of this happening on a wide-spread scale), that's something we catch.
I am sure there are some safeguards, but data still looks pretty strange to me. Maybe things will be clearer once county and city level data is released.
Or I really would love to see an explanation why estimates went off specifically in 2 nearby states - NY and NJ - more than elsewhere.
Population crisis that's for sure .
Quote from: OCGuy81 on April 26, 2021, 05:42:31 PM
It'll be interesting to see the eventual shift in battleground states, especially with losses of seats in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio. It likely won't be much different this decade, but will we begin to see Ohio being less the political Holy Land, giving that title to a place like Arizona or Nevada?
The nation sure paid a lot more attention to those states this past election than usual.
Quote from: kalvado on April 26, 2021, 05:43:02 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 26, 2021, 05:33:42 PM
We have an entire operation that weeds out double responses. It's one of the areas I work with. Unless people are deliberately using different names and ages (to be clear we aren't aware of any reports of this happening on a wide-spread scale), that's something we catch.
I am sure there are some safeguards, but data still looks pretty strange to me.
As a kid, I had always wondered if/when NY would ever crack 20 million, and over the past few years I basically concluded it wasn't going to happen anytime soon, so to see 20.2M seems strange and pleasantly surprising to me as well.
Quote from: kalvado on April 26, 2021, 05:43:02 PM
Maybe things will be clearer once county and city level data is released.
Speaking of which - when will that be?
The 2010 census had a great interactive map that I'm hoping will come back for 2020 as well.
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2021, 05:58:41 PM
Quote from: OCGuy81 on April 26, 2021, 05:42:31 PM
It'll be interesting to see the eventual shift in battleground states, especially with losses of seats in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio. It likely won't be much different this decade, but will we begin to see Ohio being less the political Holy Land, giving that title to a place like Arizona or Nevada?
The nation sure paid a lot more attention to those states this past election than usual.
Not to get too far into politics here, but it is worth distinguishing between Ohio and PA/MI/WI.
Ohio has been "the" bellwether for a long time, so it probably got about average or maybe even less attention than usual. The other three obviously got way more attention than usual, since they hadn't been considered competitive during the previous ~five cycles.
Quote from: webny99 on April 26, 2021, 06:54:57 PM
Not to get too far into politics here, but it is worth distinguishing between Ohio and PA/MI/WI.
Ohio has been "the" bellwether for a long time, so it probably got about average or maybe even less attention than usual. The other three obviously got way more attention than usual, since they hadn't been considered competitive during the previous ~five cycles.
Ohio is far less competitive than it has been in the past, to the point that some people don't even consider it a purple state anymore. The same is true of Florida, for what it's worth.
Quote from: kevinb1994 on April 26, 2021, 04:54:31 PM
This is expected, the tax rate is one reason why.
That's an incredibly simplistic way of looking at it. The majority of people don't choose where to live based on tax rates. If they did Oklahoma would be booming, and it's not. Every person makes a decision where to live based on a number of factors that are unique to them, and while tax rates can be part of that, often times good schools, good climate, good jobs in the person's desired field, and interesting things to do nearby factor into it. (A professional surfer isn't going to move to Tennessee because the tax rate is good.)
Quote from: tolbs17 on April 26, 2021, 05:45:48 PM
Population crisis that's for sure .
What about any of this data constitutes a crisis?
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 26, 2021, 07:07:42 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 26, 2021, 06:54:57 PM
Not to get too far into politics here, but it is worth distinguishing between Ohio and PA/MI/WI.
Ohio has been "the" bellwether for a long time, so it probably got about average or maybe even less attention than usual. The other three obviously got way more attention than usual, since they hadn't been considered competitive during the previous ~five cycles.
Ohio is far less competitive than it has been in the past, to the point that some people don't even consider it a purple state anymore. The same is true of Florida, for what it's worth.
Quote from: kevinb1994 on April 26, 2021, 04:54:31 PM
This is expected, the tax rate is one reason why.
That's an incredibly simplistic way of looking at it. The majority of people don't choose where to live based on tax rates. If they did Oklahoma would be booming, and it's not. Every person makes a decision where to live based on a number of factors that are unique to them, and while tax rates can be part of that, often times good schools, good climate, good jobs in the person's desired field, and interesting things to do nearby factor into it. (A professional surfer isn't going to move to Tennessee because the tax rate is good.)
Quote from: tolbs17 on April 26, 2021, 05:45:48 PM
Population crisis that's for sure .
What about any of this data constitutes a crisis?
Florida is still red tinted purple, Ohio is blood red now.
Quote from: webny99 on April 26, 2021, 06:44:39 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 26, 2021, 05:43:02 PM
Maybe things will be clearer once county and city level data is released.
Speaking of which - when will that be?
The 2010 census had a great interactive map that I'm hoping will come back for 2020 as well.
It's supposed to be released to the states no later than August 16. Probably a few weeks beyond that to get all the data products live on the web site. I don't know what all is planned but that map was popular so I'd expect it to be back.
Quote from: webny99 on April 26, 2021, 06:54:57 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2021, 05:58:41 PM
Quote from: OCGuy81 on April 26, 2021, 05:42:31 PM
It'll be interesting to see the eventual shift in battleground states, especially with losses of seats in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio. It likely won't be much different this decade, but will we begin to see Ohio being less the political Holy Land, giving that title to a place like Arizona or Nevada?
The nation sure paid a lot more attention to those states this past election than usual.
Not to get too far into politics here, but it is worth distinguishing between Ohio and PA/MI/WI.
Ohio has been "the" bellwether for a long time, so it probably got about average or maybe even less attention than usual. The other three obviously got way more attention than usual, since they hadn't been considered competitive during the previous ~five cycles.
As far as Congressional seats (and thus electoral votes), states that voted for Trump both times are +3, states that voted for him the first time but not the second are -2, and states that didn't vote for him either time are -1.
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 26, 2021, 07:37:15 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 26, 2021, 06:54:57 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2021, 05:58:41 PM
Quote from: OCGuy81 on April 26, 2021, 05:42:31 PM
It'll be interesting to see the eventual shift in battleground states, especially with losses of seats in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio. It likely won't be much different this decade, but will we begin to see Ohio being less the political Holy Land, giving that title to a place like Arizona or Nevada?
The nation sure paid a lot more attention to those states this past election than usual.
Not to get too far into politics here, but it is worth distinguishing between Ohio and PA/MI/WI.
Ohio has been "the" bellwether for a long time, so it probably got about average or maybe even less attention than usual. The other three obviously got way more attention than usual, since they hadn't been considered competitive during the previous ~five cycles.
As far as Congressional seats (and thus electoral votes), states that voted for Trump both times are +3, states that voted for him the first time but not the second are -2, and states that didn't vote for him either time are -1.
Remember, in democrat controlled states they might draw out a republican district and vice versa.
Official 2020 state populations:
Alabama 5,024,279
Alaska 733,391
Arizona 7,151,502
Arkansas 3,011,524
California 39,538,223
Colorado 5,773,714
Connecticut 3,605,944
Delaware 989,948
District of Columbia 689,545
Florida 21,538,187
Georgia 10,711,908
Hawaii 1,455,271
Idaho 1,839,106
Illinois 12,812,508
Indiana 6,785,528
Iowa 3,190,369
Kansas 2,937,880
Kentucky 4,505,836
Louisiana 4,657,757
Maine 1,362,359
Maryland 6,177,224
Massachusetts 7,029,917
Michigan 10,077,331
Minnesota 5,706,494
Mississippi 2,961,279
Missouri 6,154,913
Montana 1,084,225
Nebraska 1,961,504
Nevada 3,104,614
New Hampshire 1,377,529
New Jersey 9,288,994
New Mexico 2,117,522
New York 20,201,249
North Carolina 10,439,388
North Dakota 779,094
Ohio 11,799,448
Oklahoma 3,959,353
Oregon 4,237,256
Pennsylvania 13,002,700
Rhode Island 1,097,379
South Carolina 5,118,425
South Dakota 886,667
Tennessee 6,910,840
Texas 29,145,505
Utah 3,271,616
Vermont 643,077
Virginia 8,631,393
Washington 7,705,281
West Virginia 1,793,716
Wisconsin 5,893,718
Wyoming 576,851
TOTAL RESIDENT POPULATION1 331,449,281
Puerto Rico 3,285,874
TOTAL RESIDENT POPULATION, INCLUDING PUERTO RICO 334,735,155
Quote from: golden eagle on April 26, 2021, 09:40:37 PM
Official 2020 state populations:
Alabama 5,024,279
Alaska 733,391
Arizona 7,151,502
Arkansas 3,011,524
California 39,538,223
Colorado 5,773,714
Connecticut 3,605,944
Delaware 989,948
District of Columbia 689,545
Florida 21,538,187
Georgia 10,711,908
Hawaii 1,455,271
Idaho 1,839,106
Illinois 12,812,508
Indiana 6,785,528
Iowa 3,190,369
Kansas 2,937,880
Kentucky 4,505,836
Louisiana 4,657,757
Maine 1,362,359
Maryland 6,177,224
Massachusetts 7,029,917
Michigan 10,077,331
Minnesota 5,706,494
Mississippi 2,961,279
Missouri 6,154,913
Montana 1,084,225
Nebraska 1,961,504
Nevada 3,104,614
New Hampshire 1,377,529
New Jersey 9,288,994
New Mexico 2,117,522
New York 20,201,249
North Carolina 10,439,388
North Dakota 779,094
Ohio 11,799,448
Oklahoma 3,959,353
Oregon 4,237,256
Pennsylvania 13,002,700
Rhode Island 1,097,379
South Carolina 5,118,425
South Dakota 886,667
Tennessee 6,910,840
Texas 29,145,505
Utah 3,271,616
Vermont 643,077
Virginia 8,631,393
Washington 7,705,281
West Virginia 1,793,716
Wisconsin 5,893,718
Wyoming 576,851
TOTAL RESIDENT POPULATION1 331,449,281
Puerto Rico 3,285,874
TOTAL RESIDENT POPULATION, INCLUDING PUERTO RICO 334,735,155
I wonder how accurate this is because of census undercounting.
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 09:41:52 PM
Quote from: golden eagle on April 26, 2021, 09:40:37 PM
Official 2020 state populations:
Alabama 5,024,279
Alaska 733,391
Arizona 7,151,502
Arkansas 3,011,524
California 39,538,223
Colorado 5,773,714
Connecticut 3,605,944
Delaware 989,948
District of Columbia 689,545
Florida 21,538,187
Georgia 10,711,908
Hawaii 1,455,271
Idaho 1,839,106
Illinois 12,812,508
Indiana 6,785,528
Iowa 3,190,369
Kansas 2,937,880
Kentucky 4,505,836
Louisiana 4,657,757
Maine 1,362,359
Maryland 6,177,224
Massachusetts 7,029,917
Michigan 10,077,331
Minnesota 5,706,494
Mississippi 2,961,279
Missouri 6,154,913
Montana 1,084,225
Nebraska 1,961,504
Nevada 3,104,614
New Hampshire 1,377,529
New Jersey 9,288,994
New Mexico 2,117,522
New York 20,201,249
North Carolina 10,439,388
North Dakota 779,094
Ohio 11,799,448
Oklahoma 3,959,353
Oregon 4,237,256
Pennsylvania 13,002,700
Rhode Island 1,097,379
South Carolina 5,118,425
South Dakota 886,667
Tennessee 6,910,840
Texas 29,145,505
Utah 3,271,616
Vermont 643,077
Virginia 8,631,393
Washington 7,705,281
West Virginia 1,793,716
Wisconsin 5,893,718
Wyoming 576,851
TOTAL RESIDENT POPULATION1 331,449,281
Puerto Rico 3,285,874
TOTAL RESIDENT POPULATION, INCLUDING PUERTO RICO 334,735,155
I wonder how accurate this is because of census undercounting.
I'm not an expert on that, so I won't even begin to guess.
It's hard to believe Michigan never cracked 10 million in the official census. For the first time ever, top ten states now all have at least 10 million people. Next in line is New Jersey with 9.2 million, Virginia with 8.6 million, and Washington with 7.7 million.
Just for fun, here is a version sorted by population so you can see where your state ranks:
1 California 39,538,223
2 Texas 29,145,505
3 Florida 21,538,187
4 New York 20,201,249
5 Pennsylvania 13,002,700
6 Illinois 12,812,508
7 Ohio 11,799,448
8 Georgia 10,711,908
9 North Carolina 10,439,388
10 Michigan 10,077,331
11 New Jersey 9,288,994
12 Virginia 8,631,393
13 Washington 7,705,281
14 Arizona 7,151,502
15 Massachusetts 7,029,917
16 Tennessee 6,910,840
17 Indiana 6,785,528
18 Maryland 6,177,224
19 Missouri 6,154,913
20 Wisconsin 5,893,718
21 Colorado 5,773,714
22 Minnesota 5,706,494
23 South Carolina 5,118,425
24 Alabama 5,024,279
25 Louisiana 4,657,757
26 Kentucky 4,505,836
27 Oregon 4,237,256
28 Oklahoma 3,959,353
29 Connecticut 3,605,944
30 Utah 3,271,616
31 Iowa 3,190,369
32 Nevada 3,104,614
33 Arkansas 3,011,524
34 Mississippi 2,961,279
35 Kansas 2,937,880
36 New Mexico 2,117,522
37 Nebraska 1,961,504
38 Idaho 1,839,106
39 West Virginia 1,793,716
40 Hawaii 1,455,271
41 New Hampshire 1,377,529
42 Maine 1,362,359
43 Rhode Island 1,097,379
44 Montana 1,084,225
45 Delaware 989,948
46 South Dakota 886,667
47 North Dakota 779,094
48 Alaska 733,391
49 District of Columbia 689,545
50 Vermont 643,077
51 Wyoming 576,851
Quote from: webny99 on April 26, 2021, 10:21:54 PM
Just for fun, here is a version sorted by population so you can see where your state ranks:
1 California 39,538,223
2 Texas 29,145,505
3 Florida 21,538,187
4 New York 20,201,249
5 Pennsylvania 13,002,700
6 Illinois 12,812,508
7 Ohio 11,799,448
8 Georgia 10,711,908
9 North Carolina 10,439,388
10 Michigan 10,077,331
11 New Jersey 9,288,994
12 Virginia 8,631,393
13 Washington 7,705,281
14 Arizona 7,151,502
15 Massachusetts 7,029,917
16 Tennessee 6,910,840
17 Indiana 6,785,528
18 Maryland 6,177,224
19 Missouri 6,154,913
20 Wisconsin 5,893,718
21 Colorado 5,773,714
22 Minnesota 5,706,494
23 South Carolina 5,118,425
24 Alabama 5,024,279
25 Louisiana 4,657,757
26 Kentucky 4,505,836
27 Oregon 4,237,256
28 Oklahoma 3,959,353
29 Connecticut 3,605,944
30 Utah 3,271,616
31 Iowa 3,190,369
32 Nevada 3,104,614
33 Arkansas 3,011,524
34 Mississippi 2,961,279
35 Kansas 2,937,880
36 New Mexico 2,117,522
37 Nebraska 1,961,504
38 Idaho 1,839,106
39 West Virginia 1,793,716
40 Hawaii 1,455,271
41 New Hampshire 1,377,529
42 Maine 1,362,359
43 Rhode Island 1,097,379
44 Montana 1,084,225
45 Delaware 989,948
46 South Dakota 886,667
47 North Dakota 779,094
48 Alaska 733,391
49 District of Columbia 689,545
50 Vermont 643,077
51 Wyoming 576,851
15th, not bad, but I'm guessing that a lot of states passed us.
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 10:31:06 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 26, 2021, 10:21:54 PM
Just for fun, here is a version sorted by population so you can see where your state ranks:
...
15th, not bad, but I'm guessing that a lot of states passed us.
Not as many as you'd think. MA was 14th in 2010, only Arizona has passed it since then.
Haha, suck it, Connecticut!
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 26, 2021, 10:45:54 PM
Haha, suck it, Connecticut!
Hartford's nowhere near as big as the Cow Ford! ;)
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 26, 2021, 10:48:40 PM
Quote from: kevinb1994 on April 26, 2021, 10:47:12 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 26, 2021, 10:45:54 PM
Haha, suck it, Connecticut!
Hartford's nowhere near as big as the Cow Ford! ;)
what
If you didn't know what I was referring to, Jacksonville used to be known as the Cow Ford.
Quote from: webny99 on April 26, 2021, 10:21:54 PM
16 Tennessee 6,910,840
I didn't realize Tennessee had that many people, much less closing in on 7 million people. Nashville is booming, so Tennessee as a whole will continue to see its population rise.
Quote from: golden eagle on April 26, 2021, 11:16:28 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 26, 2021, 10:21:54 PM
16 Tennessee 6,910,840
I didn't realize Tennessee had that many people, much less closing in on 7 million people. Nashville is booming, so Tennessee as a whole will continue to see its population rise.
It's definitely NOT what Louisville is.
Quote from: golden eagle on April 26, 2021, 11:16:28 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 26, 2021, 10:21:54 PM
16 Tennessee 6,910,840
I didn't realize Tennessee had that many people, much less closing in on 7 million people. Nashville is booming, so Tennessee as a whole will continue to see its population rise.
Passed Indiana, not that I mind. I'll probably move to Middle Tennessee when I'm out of college.
Quote from: I-55 on April 26, 2021, 11:25:01 PM
Quote from: golden eagle on April 26, 2021, 11:16:28 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 26, 2021, 10:21:54 PM
16 Tennessee 6,910,840
I didn't realize Tennessee had that many people, much less closing in on 7 million people. Nashville is booming, so Tennessee as a whole will continue to see its population rise.
Passed Indiana, not that I mind. I'll probably move to Middle Tennessee when I'm out of college.
Middle Tennessee is also a reference to a place of higher education in Murfreesboro.
So at this rate, how long before Texas becomes bigger than California?
I wouldn't be surprised if both GA and NC passes Ohio in population by the 2030 census with how fast they're growing.
I just want to give a congratulations to Montana for finally crossing the one million mark.
Chris
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 26, 2021, 04:54:39 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 04:49:59 PM
Without getting political, looks like power is shifting from the rust belt to the sun belt.
In general yes, but there's also some shifting within the rust belt. In my town, any house listed for sale will get immediate cash offers at $30k or more above list price from people wanting to move from IL. Indiana gained 4.7%, compared to 2.3% for Ohio, 2.0% for Michigan, and Illinois lost 0.1%. It wasn't enough to gain a Congressional seat, but we're in much better shape than the rest of the region.
A lot of what happened in 2020 also happened after Census Day (04-01 in years ending in '0'), including the troubles that came up in late May and have been festering ever since (like in Minnesota, Oregon and Washington). They won't be accounted for until 2030.
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on April 26, 2021, 05:38:43 PM
Quote from: Bruce on April 26, 2021, 05:18:51 PM
NY was 89 seats short on its lost seat, which is a shame given that follow-up surveys by enumerators were suspended too early. There were probably thousands in NY who weren't counted in time.
Minnesota was the state that held onto all 8 of its seats by the margin of that 89 people.
Minnesota would have very likely lost that seat had Census Day been 08-01 instead of 04-01.
Mike
Quote from: jayhawkco on April 27, 2021, 02:05:33 AM
I just want to give a congratulations to Montana for finally crossing the one million mark.
Now 44 of 50 states have at least 1 million people. Delaware came so close too, I was hoping we'd get to 45.
Also Alabama (barely) and South Carolina for crossing five million
Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina for crossing 10 million
New York and Florida for crossing 20 million
Quote from: golden eagle on April 26, 2021, 09:53:20 PM
For the first time ever, top ten states now all have at least 10 million people. Next in line is New Jersey with 9.2 million, Virginia with 8.6 million, and Washington with 7.7 million.
The "10 over 10" club is likely here to stay for a while. New Jersey has a remote shot at 10 million by 2030, but it doesn't seem likely.
There were only three states that lost population between 2010 and 2020: Illinois, Mississippi, and West Virginia
Quote from: webny99 on April 27, 2021, 08:46:10 AM
There were only two states that lost population between 2010 and 2020: Illinois and West Virginia
Mississippi is still a state
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 27, 2021, 08:53:41 AM
Quote from: webny99 on April 27, 2021, 08:46:10 AM
There were only two states that lost population between 2010 and 2020: Illinois and West Virginia
Mississippi is still a state
Debatable. ;)
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 27, 2021, 08:53:41 AM
Quote from: webny99 on April 27, 2021, 08:46:10 AM
There were only two states that lost population between 2010 and 2020: Illinois and West Virginia
Mississippi is still a state
Don't know how I missed that. Fixed.
Although it was only 6k, easily the smallest numerical change of any state in either direction.
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 27, 2021, 08:53:41 AM
Quote from: webny99 on April 27, 2021, 08:46:10 AM
There were only two states that lost population between 2010 and 2020: Illinois and West Virginia
Mississippi is still a state
Is it really? The standard of living there makes it seem more like a territory or an independent country.
And as outlined in this map:
https://mcusercontent.com/d525ab9ade4d860d2b5772468/images/9f3dcfb4-c61e-4c65-9d39-2e7bb761e6ac.png
West Virginia is the only state to lose population 1950-2020. Other states have grown fast and others slow, but only one state has less people today than 70 years ago. When WV had SIX congressmen, or roughly 6/435ths of the population.
On to redistricting. The drive by media superficially just reports that this or that state has gained or lost a congress seat and moves on. Lot more to it than that. Districts have to be redrawn every time, even if the state stays even, because they must be equal and population growth or decline is never equal all around the state. For example, when the numbers are fully released, eastern Kentucky will have lost a lot, even though Kentucky did not lose a seat, and thus the eastern districts will have to get larger geographically, while the Cincy suburb district will be geographically smaller. So on across the process.
Remember that every state (except the ones with one seat) will have to redistrict, and also redistrict state senates and state houses as well. Pretty much the story, everywhere, will be less seats for rural areas and more for suburban ones.
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 10:31:06 PM
15th, not bad, but I'm guessing that a lot of states passed us.
Is the top of the list "better"?
Quote from: jayhawkco on April 27, 2021, 02:05:33 AM
I just want to give a congratulations to Montana for finally crossing the one million mark.
Who said they're happy about it?
Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2021, 12:14:29 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 10:31:06 PM
15th, not bad, but I'm guessing that a lot of states passed us.
Is the top of the list "better"?
Not according to the founding fathers!
Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2021, 12:14:29 PM
Quote from: jayhawkco on April 27, 2021, 02:05:33 AM
I just want to give a congratulations to Montana for finally crossing the one million mark.
Who said they're happy about it?
They should be happy. They just doubled their number of US representatives.
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 27, 2021, 09:46:31 AM
The standard of living there makes it seem more like a territory or an independent country.
What's your working definition of "standard of living"? Are you comparing income to cost of living? Mean, median?
Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2021, 12:19:41 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 27, 2021, 09:46:31 AM
The standard of living there makes it seem more like a territory or an independent country.
What's your working definition of "standard of living"? Are you comparing income to cost of living? Mean, median?
It's somewhat of a meme (possibly pre-Internet) that Mississippi is last in everything, such as education, health care, etc.
Quote from: 1 on April 27, 2021, 12:21:59 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2021, 12:19:41 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 27, 2021, 09:46:31 AM
The standard of living there makes it seem more like a territory or an independent country.
What's your working definition of "standard of living"? Are you comparing income to cost of living? Mean, median?
It's somewhat of a meme (possibly pre-Internet) that Mississippi is last in everything, such as education, health care, etc.
I have a friend who worked in MS hospital for a few years. He mentioned that it was a regular conversation - are we still 50th in that rating? WHAT? We climbed to the 49 place? HOW???
Yeah, yeah, I get that. But I'm curious to know what the numbers actually are. And, for that, I need to know what numbers are being compared. Is Mississippi really that far behind, say, #45 on whatever list you have in mind?
A lot of times you'll see an article where some aspect of living in Oklahoma is terrible, usually with a stat showing us 46th in something or order. The comments will inevitably include at least one instance of "Well, thank GOD for Mississippi!"
Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2021, 01:09:31 PM
Yeah, yeah, I get that. But I'm curious to know what the numbers actually are. And, for that, I need to know what numbers are being compared. Is Mississippi really that far behind, say, #45 on whatever list you have in mind?
Mississippi life expectancy is only 74.4 years. That's lower than Mexico or Brazil's.
Two pet peeves from the various media outlets coverage of the results:
1) The Census has been referred to as the "Census survey". While the Census Bureau does conduct surveys, a survey and a census are different things. A survey gathers data from a sample of a larger population. A census gathers data from the entire population.
2) "If the census had counted 89 more people in New York . . . " While this statement is technically true, it is worded in a way that implies that there was some sort of decision made to count fewer people. Everybody that was there was counted.
Quote from: SP Cook on April 27, 2021, 10:16:08 AM
The drive by media superficially just reports that this or that state has gained or lost a congress seat and moves on.
Well, yeah, considering the Census Bureau has only released by-state totals and nothing more specific is going to be released until August, what else are they supposed to report? Made-up stuff?
Quote from: SP Cook on April 27, 2021, 10:16:08 AM
Districts have to be redrawn every time, even if the state stays even, because they must be equal and population growth or decline is never equal all around the state. For example, when the numbers are fully released, eastern Kentucky will have lost a lot, even though Kentucky did not lose a seat, and thus the eastern districts will have to get larger geographically, while the Cincy suburb district will be geographically smaller. So on across the process.
Remember that every state (except the ones with one seat) will have to redistrict, and also redistrict state senates and state houses as well. Pretty much the story, everywhere, will be less seats for rural areas and more for suburban ones.
This is would be a good thing in Oklahoma, since both the 4th and the 5th districts have urban or suburban areas with vast swaths of rural territory that share nothing with them politically attached to it. (The 5th is particularly dumb: let's take most of the Oklahoma City metro and nail Pottawatomie County to the side of it and pretend that makes sense. Sure, guy.)
But then again I doubt it will get any better because the way it's set up is how the Legislature wants it. If anything, it will get worse, because the Wrong Candidate won in district 5 in 2018.
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 27, 2021, 01:36:48 PM
Two pet peeves from the various media outlets coverage of the results:
1) The Census has been referred to as the "Census survey". While the Census Bureau does conduct surveys, a survey and a census are different things. A survey gathers data from a sample of a larger population. A census gathers data from the entire population.
2) "If the census had counted 89 more people in New York . . . " While this statement is technically true, it is worded in a way that implies that there was some sort of decision made to count fewer people. Everybody that was there was counted.
It is the drive-by media that is made to sensationalize that comment.
Quote from: Avalanchez71 on April 27, 2021, 01:54:52 PM
It is the drive-by media that is made to sensationalize that comment.
Well, yeah, considering the Census Bureau has only released by-state totals and nothing more specific is going to be released until August, what else are they supposed to report? Made-up stuff?
Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2021, 01:09:31 PM
Yeah, yeah, I get that. But I'm curious to know what the numbers actually are. And, for that, I need to know what numbers are being compared. Is Mississippi really that far behind, say, #45 on whatever list you have in mind?
Wel, this is the one I have in mind:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/teen-births/teenbirths.htm
MS is only 49th over past few years.
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 27, 2021, 01:26:25 PM
A lot of times you'll see an article where some aspect of living in Oklahoma is terrible, usually with a stat showing us 46th in something or order. The comments will inevitably include at least one instance of "Well, thank GOD for Mississippi!"
Yes, the "thank God for Mississippi" line has been around at least since the 1980s when Molly Ivins quoted it in one of her columns.
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 27, 2021, 01:36:48 PM
Two pet peeves from the various media outlets coverage of the results:
1) The Census has been referred to as the "Census survey". While the Census Bureau does conduct surveys, a survey and a census are different things. A survey gathers data from a sample of a larger population. A census gathers data from the entire population.
2) "If the census had counted 89 more people in New York . . . " While this statement is technically true, it is worded in a way that implies that there was some sort of decision made to count fewer people. Everybody that was there was counted.
I don't think everyone was counted.
Quote from: kalvado on April 27, 2021, 02:04:58 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2021, 01:09:31 PM
Yeah, yeah, I get that. But I'm curious to know what the numbers actually are. And, for that, I need to know what numbers are being compared. Is Mississippi really that far behind, say, #45 on whatever list you have in mind?
Wel, this is the one I have in mind:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/teen-births/teenbirths.htm
MS is only 49th over past few years.
I'm not sure I equate teen births with "standard of living". There's probably correlation, but...
Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2021, 02:27:10 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 27, 2021, 02:04:58 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2021, 01:09:31 PM
Yeah, yeah, I get that. But I'm curious to know what the numbers actually are. And, for that, I need to know what numbers are being compared. Is Mississippi really that far behind, say, #45 on whatever list you have in mind?
Wel, this is the one I have in mind:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/teen-births/teenbirths.htm
MS is only 49th over past few years.
I'm not sure I equate teen births with "standard of living". There's probably correlation, but...
Poorer sex ed leads to more teen births.
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 27, 2021, 02:28:12 PM
Poorer sex ed leads to more teen births.
A lot more than that leads to teen births.
But that's still not the same thing as "standard of living" to me.
Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2021, 02:30:03 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 27, 2021, 02:28:12 PM
Poorer sex ed leads to more teen births.
A lot more than that leads to teen births.
But that's still not the same thing as "standard of living" to me.
In richer areas where education is more of a priority, teens could be more forward-thinking about their actions and the effect that it could have on their future.
Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2021, 02:27:10 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 27, 2021, 02:04:58 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2021, 01:09:31 PM
Yeah, yeah, I get that. But I'm curious to know what the numbers actually are. And, for that, I need to know what numbers are being compared. Is Mississippi really that far behind, say, #45 on whatever list you have in mind?
Wel, this is the one I have in mind:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/teen-births/teenbirths.htm
MS is only 49th over past few years.
I'm not sure I equate teen births with "standard of living". There's probably correlation, but...
Well, another one
https://ssti.org/blog/useful-stats-capita-gross-state-product-1998-2018
Animation about 2 screens down is quite telling.
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 27, 2021, 02:21:54 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 27, 2021, 01:36:48 PM
Two pet peeves from the various media outlets coverage of the results:
1) The Census has been referred to as the "Census survey". While the Census Bureau does conduct surveys, a survey and a census are different things. A survey gathers data from a sample of a larger population. A census gathers data from the entire population.
2) "If the census had counted 89 more people in New York . . . " While this statement is technically true, it is worded in a way that implies that there was some sort of decision made to count fewer people. Everybody that was there was counted.
I don't think everyone was counted.
I don't think everyone was counted in Minnesota. That game could be played all day. Likely their was actually an overcount with the Coronavirus migration in NYS.
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 27, 2021, 02:21:54 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 27, 2021, 01:36:48 PM
Two pet peeves from the various media outlets coverage of the results:
1) The Census has been referred to as the "Census survey". While the Census Bureau does conduct surveys, a survey and a census are different things. A survey gathers data from a sample of a larger population. A census gathers data from the entire population.
2) "If the census had counted 89 more people in New York . . . " While this statement is technically true, it is worded in a way that implies that there was some sort of decision made to count fewer people. Everybody that was there was counted.
I don't think everyone was counted.
If someone wasn't counted, they chose to remain hidden.
Are these numbers going to affect vaccination percentages?
For example, here's an interesting comparison I just whipped up:
(https://i.imgur.com/S67SArp.png)
How did Puerto Rico do compared to 2019 estimates? I expect it to go down significantly because of Hurricane Maria, but I don't know how much the estimates accounted for that.
Quote from: 1 on April 27, 2021, 02:46:19 PM
Are these numbers going to affect vaccination percentages?
Not really. Largest discrepancy between estimate and census count is 4.6%.
That is enough to turn 44.6% first shot in NYS as of now into 42.6% vaccinated. Not really a deal breaker
I see the new census numbers as a push politically. I wouldn't count Texas as safe red going forward, although the new seats will likely be gerrymandered red. Ohio and West Virginia are red states, and the other states that do independent redistricting (even California) are in play enough where it's 50-50. California could actually go -1 in red seats if it plays out that way. Same with NY and IL.
Quote from: SP Cook on April 27, 2021, 10:16:08 AM
And as outlined in this map:
https://mcusercontent.com/d525ab9ade4d860d2b5772468/images/9f3dcfb4-c61e-4c65-9d39-2e7bb761e6ac.png
West Virginia is the only state to lose population 1950-2020. Other states have grown fast and others slow, but only one state has less people today than 70 years ago. When WV had SIX congressmen, or roughly 6/435ths of the population.
West Virginia also becomes the second state to have
fewer than half as many representatives as it did after the 1900 Census. WV had 5 after the 1900 Census, and now it will have 2. (The size of the House was 386 after the 1900 reapportionment.) The other is Iowa, which went from 11 post-1900 to 4 today.
Demographer Lyman Stone thinks that there was some double counting caused by the enormous number of New Yorkers who moved due to the lockdown (people retreating to second homes, college students moving back in with parents etc.)
(https://i.imgur.com/Dio9odX.png)
Quote from: SP Cook on April 27, 2021, 10:16:08 AM
And as outlined in this map:
https://mcusercontent.com/d525ab9ade4d860d2b5772468/images/9f3dcfb4-c61e-4c65-9d39-2e7bb761e6ac.png
West Virginia is the only state to lose population 1950-2020. Other states have grown fast and others slow, but only one state has less people today than 70 years ago. When WV had SIX congressmen, or roughly 6/435ths of the population.
Quote from: GenExpwy on April 28, 2021, 04:59:26 AM
West Virginia also becomes the second state to have fewer than half as many representatives as it did after the 1900 Census. WV had 5 after the 1900 Census, and now it will have 2. (The size of the House was 386 after the 1900 reapportionment.) The other is Iowa, which went from 11 post-1900 to 4 today.
Of course, the common joke about the education system in West Virginia is partly to blame.
[Repeat from MTR days:] Three R's: Readin', 'Ritin' and "Road to Columbus" (1970s); Readin', 'Ritin' and "Road to Charlotte" (1980s).
Is the census 100% perfect? No. Like every other work of man, it is imperfect.
Is there any evidence of any ill will or purposeful ignoring of any group of any type? None whatsoever.
Is there any evidence that the tiny fraction of 1% who refused to participate changed any result in any meaningful way? None whatsoever.
The numbers are what they are. Move on.
Quote from: kernals12 on April 28, 2021, 08:15:41 AM
Demographer Lyman Stone thinks that there was some double counting caused by the enormous number of New Yorkers who moved due to the lockdown (people retreating to second homes, college students moving back in with parents etc.)
I don't really buy it. I'm sure the census isn't 100% perfect, but I think the numbers for Upstate NY have been excessively pessimistic throughout the 2010's, so it's good to see some mean reversion.
I can't wait for the county data, but I won't be at all surprised if it's the urban and suburban Upstate counties that are contributing to the error more so than NYC and environs.
Quote from: webny99 on April 28, 2021, 11:07:02 AM
Quote from: kernals12 on April 28, 2021, 08:15:41 AM
Demographer Lyman Stone thinks that there was some double counting caused by the enormous number of New Yorkers who moved due to the lockdown (people retreating to second homes, college students moving back in with parents etc.)
I don't really buy it. I'm sure the census isn't 100% perfect, but I think the numbers for Upstate NY have been excessively pessimistic throughout the 2010's, so it's good to see some mean reversion.
I can't wait for the county data, but I won't be at all surprised if it's the urban and suburban Upstate counties that are contributing to the error more so than NYC and environs.
I can
very easily see some talk about "you moved here, you need to fill census form over here now - otherwise we have no resources to support community!" coming from local officials as more people moved out of NYC due to covid. There is a clear reason for them to do that - money - even if this is
slightly against "as of 4/1" model.
Moreover, efforts to reach undercounted via alternative data sources can easily be a part of it - those who were in NYC on 4/1, but fled afterwards may even not fill the form in the city themselves, but data can be obtained via alternative channels.
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2021, 12:42:28 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 28, 2021, 11:07:02 AM
Quote from: kernals12 on April 28, 2021, 08:15:41 AM
Demographer Lyman Stone thinks that there was some double counting caused by the enormous number of New Yorkers who moved due to the lockdown (people retreating to second homes, college students moving back in with parents etc.)
I don't really buy it. I'm sure the census isn't 100% perfect, but I think the numbers for Upstate NY have been excessively pessimistic throughout the 2010's, so it's good to see some mean reversion.
I can't wait for the county data, but I won't be at all surprised if it's the urban and suburban Upstate counties that are contributing to the error more so than NYC and environs.
I can very easily see some talk about "you moved here, you need to fill census form over here now - otherwise we have no resources to support community!" coming from local officials as more people moved out of NYC due to covid. There is a clear reason for them to do that - money - even if this is slightly against "as of 4/1" model.
Moreover, efforts to reach undercounted via alternative data sources can easily be a part of it - those who were in NYC on 4/1, but fled afterwards may even not fill the form in the city themselves, but data can be obtained via alternative channels.
Pretty sure I mentioned this once already, but there is a matching operation that weeds out duplicate responses. If a family filled out a second form at a second location, it would get eliminated.
Quote from: SP Cook on April 28, 2021, 10:18:20 AM
Is the census 100% perfect? No. Like every other work of man, it is imperfect.
Is there any evidence of any ill will or purposeful ignoring of any group of any type? None whatsoever.
Is there any evidence that the tiny fraction of 1% who refused to participate changed any result in any meaningful way? None whatsoever.
The numbers are what they are. Move on.
Gov. Cuomo II disagrees!
https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections-government/ny-state-census-cuomo-congressional-district-lawsuit-20210427-tmmau4xlsved5h3jkpwrp4z6aq-story.html
QuoteNew York is considering a lawsuit after losing a representative in the House amid a Census that saw the Empire State fall just 89 people short of keeping all its seats.
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 28, 2021, 12:43:53 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2021, 12:42:28 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 28, 2021, 11:07:02 AM
Quote from: kernals12 on April 28, 2021, 08:15:41 AM
Demographer Lyman Stone thinks that there was some double counting caused by the enormous number of New Yorkers who moved due to the lockdown (people retreating to second homes, college students moving back in with parents etc.)
I don't really buy it. I'm sure the census isn't 100% perfect, but I think the numbers for Upstate NY have been excessively pessimistic throughout the 2010's, so it's good to see some mean reversion.
I can't wait for the county data, but I won't be at all surprised if it's the urban and suburban Upstate counties that are contributing to the error more so than NYC and environs.
I can very easily see some talk about "you moved here, you need to fill census form over here now - otherwise we have no resources to support community!" coming from local officials as more people moved out of NYC due to covid. There is a clear reason for them to do that - money - even if this is slightly against "as of 4/1" model.
Moreover, efforts to reach undercounted via alternative data sources can easily be a part of it - those who were in NYC on 4/1, but fled afterwards may even not fill the form in the city themselves, but data can be obtained via alternative channels.
Pretty sure I mentioned this once already, but there is a matching operation that weeds out duplicate responses. If a family filled out a second form at a second location, it would get eliminated.
Question is about the efficiency of such filtration. I doubt it will work 100% - and it may be interesting to see how this would get scrutinized.
And I suspect it will, as NYS legal efforts are almost certain to proceed all the way up to SCOTUS.
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2021, 12:44:14 PM
Quote from: SP Cook on April 28, 2021, 10:18:20 AM
Is the census 100% perfect? No. Like every other work of man, it is imperfect.
Is there any evidence of any ill will or purposeful ignoring of any group of any type? None whatsoever.
Is there any evidence that the tiny fraction of 1% who refused to participate changed any result in any meaningful way? None whatsoever.
The numbers are what they are. Move on.
Gov. Cuomo II disagrees!
https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections-government/ny-state-census-cuomo-congressional-district-lawsuit-20210427-tmmau4xlsved5h3jkpwrp4z6aq-story.html
Quote
New York is considering a lawsuit after losing a representative in the House amid a Census that saw the Empire State fall just 89 people short of keeping all its seats.
Reminds me of Florida counting hanging chads. Or a football team challenging a ref call.
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2021, 12:44:14 PM
Quote from: SP Cook on April 28, 2021, 10:18:20 AM
Is the census 100% perfect? No. Like every other work of man, it is imperfect.
Is there any evidence of any ill will or purposeful ignoring of any group of any type? None whatsoever.
Is there any evidence that the tiny fraction of 1% who refused to participate changed any result in any meaningful way? None whatsoever.
The numbers are what they are. Move on.
Gov. Cuomo II disagrees!
https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections-government/ny-state-census-cuomo-congressional-district-lawsuit-20210427-tmmau4xlsved5h3jkpwrp4z6aq-story.html
QuoteNew York is considering a lawsuit after losing a representative in the House amid a Census that saw the Empire State fall just 89 people short of keeping all its seats.
First of all, even though I'm not an official spokesperson for the Bureau, in the event that a lawsuit gets filed, everybody is likely to be put under a gag order, so I would no longer be able to contribute to this discussion.
Since it hasn't yet been filed, I can say is that the threatened lawsuit has no merit, and even if it somehow gets through the lower courts, there's no way this Supreme Court takes a seat from MN and gives it to NY. This is nothing more than wasting taxpayers money on a lawsuit so the governor can demonstrate that he's "fighting for his people" [and perhaps to distract from his other issues]
Also, as to the 1% that never respond, there are alternative methods to get a count in those cases. A state or locality doesn't just not get people counted because they don't respond.
Quote from: kphoger on April 28, 2021, 12:51:28 PM
Florida counting hanging chads. Or a football team challenging a ref call.
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 28, 2021, 01:06:39 PM
This is nothing more than ... the governor can demonstrate that he's "fighting for his people" [and perhaps to distract from his other issues]
Yep. You say potato...
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 26, 2021, 04:54:39 PMIn my town, any house listed for sale will get immediate cash offers at $30k or more above list price from people wanting to move from IL. Indiana gained 4.7%, compared to 2.3% for Ohio, 2.0% for Michigan, and Illinois lost 0.1%.
But Lake County IN as a whole isn't experiencing a population boom as would be expected from all those folks supposedly just waiting to move across the state line. 2010 - 496k 2019 est. - 485k, a 2% drop.
Quote from: kphoger on April 28, 2021, 01:14:09 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 28, 2021, 12:51:28 PM
Florida counting hanging chads. Or a football team challenging a ref call.
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 28, 2021, 01:06:39 PM
This is nothing more than ... the governor can demonstrate that he's "fighting for his people" [and perhaps to distract from his other issues]
Yep. You say potato...
The funny thing is that many people were expecting NY to lose two seats. It's crazy that it came that close to being zero, but IMO we should still just be happy it was only one.
Quote from: Rick Powell on April 28, 2021, 01:18:34 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 26, 2021, 04:54:39 PMIn my town, any house listed for sale will get immediate cash offers at $30k or more above list price from people wanting to move from IL. Indiana gained 4.7%, compared to 2.3% for Ohio, 2.0% for Michigan, and Illinois lost 0.1%.
But Lake County IN as a whole isn't experiencing a population boom as would be expected from all those folks supposedly just waiting to move across the state line. 2010 - 496k 2019 est. - 485k, a 2% drop.
A market boom that started in 2020 wouldn't be reflected in 2019 population estimates, though it is noteworthy that 2019 was the first year of increase over the previous year in a long time.
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 28, 2021, 01:06:39 PM
Also, as to the 1% that never respond, there are alternative methods to get a count in those cases. A state or locality doesn't just not get people counted because they don't respond.
What are some of these methods? Are they estimation-type methods or do they rely on other data sources, like public records?
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 28, 2021, 03:11:59 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 28, 2021, 01:06:39 PM
Also, as to the 1% that never respond, there are alternative methods to get a count in those cases. A state or locality doesn't just not get people counted because they don't respond.
What are some of these methods? Are they estimation-type methods or do they rely on other data sources, like public records?
My understanding is that estimation is a last resort. Neighbors and public records are used first.
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 28, 2021, 03:19:42 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 28, 2021, 03:11:59 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 28, 2021, 01:06:39 PM
Also, as to the 1% that never respond, there are alternative methods to get a count in those cases. A state or locality doesn't just not get people counted because they don't respond.
What are some of these methods? Are they estimation-type methods or do they rely on other data sources, like public records?
My understanding is that estimation is a last resort. Neighbors and public records are used first.
I believe the New York numbers. What I don't believe is the lower numbers in states with high percentages of Hispanics (although Puerto Rico, not a state and with high uncertainty due to the hurricane, exceeded expectations). Do you have an explanation for that?
Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2021, 02:46:36 PM
For example, here's an interesting comparison I just whipped up:
(https://i.imgur.com/S67SArp.png)
Great stats. But regarding "standard of living" it seems like the percentage of rent versus wages makes more sense. Amazingly, that raises Iowa (1), Kansas (2), Oklahoma (3), Wyoming (4) and Wisconsin (5) to the top; but not surprisingly droops California (50), New York (49), Hawaii (48), Florida (47) and Massachusetts (46) to the bottom.
But that's not an ideal metric for "standard of living" either. Oklahoma is very cheap to live in, but the education system here is horrible due to years of budget cuts, so if you have kids and it's important to you that they don't grow up to be stupid, then Oklahoma may not be the place for you. It's also got a horrible climate, with 100° days and high humidity common in the summer, cold wind in the winter, and strong tornadoes in the springtime. If you're poor or unemployed, the state doesn't really do a whole lot to help you out. You have to look at ODOT road signs any time you go anywhere.
That's not saying Oklahoma is awful either. I could leave if I wanted to, but I haven't yet. But what I'm getting at is that you will never be able to quantify "standard of living" because people have different standards for what's important to them in life. Some people care only about the bottom line when it comes to choosing a state to live in. If you do, then Oklahoma is likely to be an attractive option. Others take a more holistic view and thus may be more likely to enjoy living in California, New York, or Hawaii and find spending the money to do so worth it.
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 28, 2021, 05:37:47 PM
the education system here is horrible due to years of budget cuts, so if you have kids and it's important to you that they don't grow up to be stupid, then Oklahoma may not be the place for you.
Of course, throwing money at an education system doesn't necessarily make it any better.
Though expecting good education to happen for peanuts is unrealistic also.
Quote from: kphoger on April 28, 2021, 05:46:53 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 28, 2021, 05:37:47 PM
the education system here is horrible due to years of budget cuts, so if you have kids and it's important to you that they don't grow up to be stupid, then Oklahoma may not be the place for you.
Of course, throwing money at an education system doesn't necessarily make it any better.
Well, no, but the issue that Oklahoma is having is that Texas pays teachers quite a bit more than they do here. At one point, Texas was offering, on average, $7,000/year more in teacher pay than Oklahoma did, so the best Oklahoma teachers often end up resigning and accepting positions in Texas instead. (There was a kind of high-profile story where a teacher won some sort of Teacher of the Year award and accepted a position in Texas for the following school year.)
The result was that teachers are hard to come by in Oklahoma. Class sizes are large, and everyone I know of had at least one class "taught" by a sports coach rather than a properly-credentialed teacher. At one point, there was even an emergency authorization in place that waived education requirements for teachers, such that anyone could legally become a teacher without any sort of degree in education.
Teacher pay is a very simple issue to fix by just throwing money at the situation. The problem is that Oklahoma has two things working against it in this regard. Under the state constitution, raising taxes requires a supermajority in the legislature, while cutting them requires a simple majority, so it is very easy to cut taxes to the bone but then very hard to reverse that move. Additionally, there is some sort of restriction that requires any property tax assessments earmarked for education to pay for physical assets of the school system, such as building maintenance and construction, and prohibits using them for staffing expenses.
Things have gotten somewhat better since there was a gas tax increase with proceeds earmarked specifically for teacher salaries, but I don't believe we are on par with Texas, even after that bill was passed. There are other problems due to low funding besides just teacher salaries–the case of a student in Ada being assigned a textbook in 2018 that was documented to have been assigned to country singer Blake Shelton for the 1982 school year comes to mind.
Moved political discussion. It if happens again, this will be locked.
I hope Wikipedia can show the new statistics.
I find it interesting that Connecticut (really most of New England but CT specifically) is one of the richest states, yet it's also declining.
Quote from: thspfc on May 02, 2021, 02:59:12 PM
I find it interesting that Connecticut (really most of New England but CT specifically) is one of the richest states, yet it's also declining.
Cold weather and high taxes
Quote from: kernals12 on May 02, 2021, 03:01:22 PM
Quote from: thspfc on May 02, 2021, 02:59:12 PM
I find it interesting that Connecticut (really most of New England but CT specifically) is one of the richest states, yet it's also declining.
Cold weather and high taxes
QuoteLots of people say they like cold winters. But if we analyze things closely we see that the consensus among humans is that cold is bad, and even among plants and animals there is that same consensus.
When we ignore someone, we are "giving them the cold shoulder"
When two countries have poor relations, we describe those relations as "frosty"
When we say someone has a "cold personality" or is "cold hearted", we don't mean it positively
House Stark urged vigilance among its members by saying "Winter is coming"
This is not a coincidence, people have shown a clear preference for warm weather in surveys and in their migration patterns.
And plants and animals agree. In winter, not summer, trees shed their leaves and animals hibernate or migrate south. The Amazon Rainforest is teeming with biodiversity while Siberia is a barren wasteland.
From this, we can conclude that cold is indeed bad, and it may be a factor in the exodus of human beings from the U.S. state of Connecticut.
In before lock. WTG, kernals.
Quote from: tolbs17 on May 02, 2021, 02:37:58 PM
I hope Wikipedia can show the new statistics.
We're working on it, but there will need to be a huge bot spree to update every city article when the full dataset is released. Not to mention creating new articles for the new CDPs.
Quote from: thspfc on May 02, 2021, 02:59:12 PM
I find it interesting that Connecticut (really most of New England but CT specifically) is one of the richest states, yet it's also declining.
Declining how so? The state added 31,847 people to its population between 2010 and 2020.
That's a pretty small increase, but it's still an increase. Only MS, WV, and IL have registered actual decreases.
Quote from: Bruce on May 02, 2021, 05:24:55 PM
Quote from: tolbs17 on May 02, 2021, 02:37:58 PM
I hope Wikipedia can show the new statistics.
We're working on it, but there will need to be a huge bot spree to update every city article when the full dataset is released. Not to mention creating new articles for the new CDPs.
I don't envy the person who decides to code that bot. It's easy enough to update in the thousands of city articles that have nothing but what was procedurally-generated from the 2000 census and updated for the 2010 census, but if anyone has gone in and changed the wording it'll be a mess.
The 2021 Rand McNally Atlas still has Florida at 4th for population. It looks like 2022 is out (saw a post about this recently) so I'm guessing the ranking swap between NY and FL will be effective in the 2023 edition.
It's interesting how NY and FL swapped places, because isn't Florida a LOT of transplanted New Yorkers, or is that an old stereotype?
Quote from: OCGuy81 on May 03, 2021, 10:12:02 AM
The 2021 Rand McNally Atlas still has Florida at 4th for population. It looks like 2022 is out (saw a post about this recently) so I'm guessing the ranking swap between NY and FL will be effective in the 2023 edition.
It's interesting how NY and FL swapped places, because isn't Florida a LOT of transplanted New Yorkers, or is that an old stereotype?
When I was down there in December visiting my parents, the amount of New York and New Jersey plates was obscene.
Chris
Quote from: jayhawkco on May 03, 2021, 10:43:25 AM
Quote from: OCGuy81 on May 03, 2021, 10:12:02 AM
The 2021 Rand McNally Atlas still has Florida at 4th for population. It looks like 2022 is out (saw a post about this recently) so I'm guessing the ranking swap between NY and FL will be effective in the 2023 edition.
It's interesting how NY and FL swapped places, because isn't Florida a LOT of transplanted New Yorkers, or is that an old stereotype?
When I was down there in December visiting my parents, the amount of New York and New Jersey plates was obscene.
Chris
Ha ha ha!! That reminds me of when I'd go to spring training games in Arizona. Spring in Arizona affords one the opportunity to see a LOT of license plates from the Midwest. I'd say Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa were the most plentiful.
Quote from: OCGuy81 on May 03, 2021, 10:12:02 AM
It's interesting how NY and FL swapped places, because isn't Florida a LOT of transplanted New Yorkers, or is that an old stereotype?
Yes to both. However, they "swapped places" close to a decade ago now... as early as 2013 or 2014 according to Census estimates. Knowing what we know now, though, I suspect the yearly Census estimates throughout the 2010's were too bullish on Florida and too bearish on New York. 2016 or 2017 is probably more like it.
August 12, 1 PM EDT. Put it on your calendar.
Quote from: 1 on August 09, 2021, 07:59:44 PM
August 12, 1 PM EDT. Put it on your calendar.
Happens to also be my birthday!
Quote from: 1 on August 09, 2021, 07:59:44 PM
August 12, 7 PM CEST. Put it on your calendar.
Fixed for me :sombrero:.
The (pay walled) Wall Street Journal has started a series on redistricting speculation, starting, oddly enough with WV. Quotes several people, including redistricting chairman Charlie Trump (no relation). WV has always divided naturally north and south, But Sen. Trump seems to favor dividing the state along a line near I-79, meaning E-W, with Monongalia county in one district and the growing eastern panhandle in the other. Have not seen a map, but this seems to make little sense, as there are way more people west of I-79 than east of it, and, of course, that doesn't say what they would do with the area south of it.
Quote from: SP Cook on August 11, 2021, 03:33:11 PM
Have not seen a map, but this seems to make little sense, as there are way more people west of I-79 than east of it, and, of course, that doesn't say what they would do with the area south of it.
Congressional districts within a state must have equal population.
Yes, I know that. That is why I said it made little sense.
So I am hoping someone can fill me in here - What exactly is being released at 1PM today? Will we get all of the town, city, and county population data, or will we have to wait for that?
Quote from: webny99 on August 12, 2021, 08:50:44 AM
So I am hoping someone can fill me in here - What exactly is being released at 1PM today? Will we get all of the town, city, and county population data, or will we have to wait for that?
So, traditionally, when the Census bureau releases redistricting data, which includes population counts down to the block level, they release the raw data files and put it out in a user-friendly form on the website at the same time.
This year, because of the COVID delays, only the raw-data version is being released today and the user-friendly version will be about a month later. If you don't have the software and experience in dealing with enormous data filed, today's release won't be useful to you beyond what media outlets mine out of the files and report.
Quote from: cabiness42 on August 12, 2021, 08:56:20 AM
So, traditionally, when the Census bureau releases redistricting data, which includes population counts down to the block level, they release the raw data files and put it out in a user-friendly form on the website at the same time.
This year, because of the COVID delays, only the raw-data version is being released today and the user-friendly version will be about a month later. If you don't have the software and experience in dealing with enormous data filed, today's release won't be useful to you beyond what media outlets mine out of the files and report.
Thanks - that is interesting. So the city and county population figures won't necessarily be publicly available yet. Do you know if there is an estimated date of when that will be released?
Quote from: cabiness42 on August 12, 2021, 08:56:20 AM
Quote from: webny99 on August 12, 2021, 08:50:44 AM
So I am hoping someone can fill me in here - What exactly is being released at 1PM today? Will we get all of the town, city, and county population data, or will we have to wait for that?
So, traditionally, when the Census bureau releases redistricting data, which includes population counts down to the block level, they release the raw data files and put it out in a user-friendly form on the website at the same time.
This year, because of the COVID delays, only the raw-data version is being released today and the user-friendly version will be about a month later. If you don't have the software and experience in dealing with enormous data filed, today's release won't be useful to you beyond what media outlets mine out of the files and report.
Will it be human-readable enough to update Wikipedia?
Quote from: 1 on August 11, 2021, 03:36:05 PM
Quote from: SP Cook on August 11, 2021, 03:33:11 PM
Have not seen a map, but this seems to make little sense, as there are way more people west of I-79 than east of it, and, of course, that doesn't say what they would do with the area south of it.
Congressional districts within a state must have equal population.
They have to be substantially equal.
QuoteThanks - that is interesting. So the city and county population figures won't necessarily be publicly available yet. Do you know if there is an estimated date of when that will be released?
QuoteWill it be human-readable enough to update Wikipedia?
I don't work in the data release area, so I don't know exactly what is involved in extracting data from the "legacy version" that is being released today, or if it's going to the public or just the states. The user-friendly version will be delivered no later than September 30 but is likely to be closer to mid-September.
I'm downloading some .pl files, and here's what I'm pulling for the largest cities (I'll update as I pull more).
UPDATE: All cities above 500,000 are on the list, plus Atlanta, which had been above 500K in previous estimates.
1. New York - 8,804,190
2. Los Angeles - 3,898,747
3. Chicago - 2,746,388
4. Houston - 2,304,580
5. Phoenix - 1,608,139
6. Philadelphia - 1,603,797
7. San Antonio - 1,434,625
8. San Diego - 1,386,932
9. Dallas - 1,304,379
10. San Jose - 1,013,240
11. Austin - 961,855
12. Jacksonville - 949,611
13. Fort Worth - 918,915
14. Columbus - 905,748
15. Indianapolis - 897,041
16. Charlotte - 874,579
17. San Francisco - 873,965
18. Seattle - 737,015
19. Denver - 715,522
20. Washington - 689,545
21. Nashville - 689,447
22. Oklahoma City - 681,054
23. El Paso - 678,815
24. Boston - 675,647
25. Portland - 652,503
26. Las Vegas - 641,903
27. Detroit - 639,111
28. Memphis - 633,104
29. Louisville - 633,045
30. Baltimore - 585,708
31. Milwaukee - 577,222
32. Albuquerque - 564,559
33. Tucson - 542,629
34. Fresno - 542,107
35. Sacramento - 524,903
36. Kansas City - 508,090
37. Mesa - 504,258
38. Atlanta - 498,715
Wow, Detriot doesn't even break the top 25 anymore. They had like a million people in 1960.
Quote from: triplemultiplex on August 12, 2021, 04:57:08 PM
Wow, Detriot doesn't even break the top 25 anymore. They had like a million people in 1960.
More like 1.67 million. Kind of amazing to think that can happen to a modern city without a major war or natural disaster occurring isn't it?
There's something fishy about New York's results. As I said earlier, one demographer suggested many New Yorkers got double counted when they fled to their second homes during the pandemic
Also surprised Austin didn't overtake San Jose.
And the 2019 estimate for Boston was 692,000 so that's a significant miss.
(https://i.imgur.com/1hUrBAW.png)
Congrats to Alexander County, IL, for causing the Census Bureau to have to make a legend entry for just them.
Houston is getting close to overtaking Chicago. With people fleeing NY lately, it won't be long that they become third.
Quote from: roadman65 on August 12, 2021, 06:14:50 PM
Houston is getting close to overtaking Chicago. With people fleeing NY lately, it won't be long that they become third.
What makes you think they're fleeing to Houston, though? Especially considering that all of the NY counties that lost population are upstate.
How did NYC get to over 8.8M? They cracked 8M for the first time in the city's history in 2000 and ISTR that estimates had them shrinking in recent years.
:hmmm:
Mike
Quote from: mgk920 on August 12, 2021, 07:16:05 PM
How did NYC get to over 8.8M? They cracked 8M for the first time in the city's history in 2000 and ISTR that estimates had them shrinking in recent years.
:hmmm:
Mike
On the other hand, Loving County, Texas had 82 in 2010, was estimated at 169 in 2019, and counted only 64 in 2020 – it was predicted to more than double, but it went down instead.
From the latest estimates, Cincinnati went above 300k people a bit, and was above both St Louis and Pittsburgh, which both lost people. St Louis, which was the highest population of the three in 2010, became the lowest in the estimates. Let's see if it'll hold true in the census counts.
This isn't really much of a surprise, but Birmingham isn't the biggest city in Alabama anymore. It's Huntsville.
Quote from: kevinb1994 on August 12, 2021, 07:34:54 PM
This isn't really much of a surprise, but Birmingham isn't the biggest city in Alabama anymore. It's Huntsville.
One word here - 'annexation'.
Mike
Quote from: mgk920 on August 12, 2021, 07:36:30 PM
Quote from: kevinb1994 on August 12, 2021, 07:34:54 PM
This isn't really much of a surprise, but Birmingham isn't the biggest city in Alabama anymore. It's Huntsville.
One word here - 'annexation'.
Mike
It's like how other cities have, in the past, used it to grow their size and scale.
Quote from: 1 on August 12, 2021, 07:21:19 PM
Quote from: mgk920 on August 12, 2021, 07:16:05 PM
How did NYC get to over 8.8M? They cracked 8M for the first time in the city's history in 2000 and ISTR that estimates had them shrinking in recent years.
:hmmm:
Mike
On the other hand, Loving County, Texas had 82 in 2010, was estimated at 169 in 2019, and counted only 64 in 2020 – it was predicted to more than double, but it went down instead.
It's entirely possible that enough residents didn't fill out their Census questionnaire, refused to answer the door for follow-up enumeration, or were missed entirely because of the prematurely-shortened enumeration schedule.
Quote from: kevinb1994 on August 12, 2021, 07:38:38 PM
Quote from: mgk920 on August 12, 2021, 07:36:30 PM
Quote from: kevinb1994 on August 12, 2021, 07:34:54 PM
This isn't really much of a surprise, but Birmingham isn't the biggest city in Alabama anymore. It's Huntsville.
One word here - 'annexation'.
Mike
It's like how other cities have, in the past, used it to grow their size and scale.
Could you explain how annexation could do anything
but grow their size and scale?
Quote from: Scott5114 on August 12, 2021, 07:54:05 PM
Quote from: kevinb1994 on August 12, 2021, 07:38:38 PM
Quote from: mgk920 on August 12, 2021, 07:36:30 PM
Quote from: kevinb1994 on August 12, 2021, 07:34:54 PM
This isn't really much of a surprise, but Birmingham isn't the biggest city in Alabama anymore. It's Huntsville.
One word here - 'annexation'.
Mike
It's like how other cities have, in the past, used it to grow their size and scale.
Could you explain how annexation could do anything but grow their size and scale?
Marion, Illinois
Quote from: 1 on August 12, 2021, 07:21:19 PM
On the other hand, Loving County, Texas had 82 in 2010, was estimated at 169 in 2019, and counted only 64 in 2020 – it was predicted to more than double, but it went down instead.
That might keep Kalawao County HI from claiming the title for smallest population, if this source is correct (https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-counties/hi/kalawao-county-population). That population estimate presumably includes resident state Department of Health and National Park Service employees, in addition to the handful of Hansen's Disease patients who still live there.
OTOH, that source says that Kalawao is Hawaii's sixth largest county. Hawaii has only five counties.
Quote from: oscar on August 12, 2021, 08:26:21 PM
Quote from: 1 on August 12, 2021, 07:21:19 PM
On the other hand, Loving County, Texas had 82 in 2010, was estimated at 169 in 2019, and counted only 64 in 2020 – it was predicted to more than double, but it went down instead.
That might keep Kalawao County HI from claiming the title for smallest population, if this source is correct (https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-counties/hi/kalawao-county-population). That population estimate presumably includes resident state Department of Health and National Park Service employees, in addition to the handful of Hansen's Disease patients who still live there.
OTOH, that source says that Kalawao is Hawaii's sixth largest county. Hawaii has only five counties.
Wikipedia articles on both counties have been updated for 2020, and both say that Loving County is smaller.
Quote from: 1 on August 12, 2021, 07:21:19 PM
Quote from: mgk920 on August 12, 2021, 07:16:05 PM
How did NYC get to over 8.8M? They cracked 8M for the first time in the city's history in 2000 and ISTR that estimates had them shrinking in recent years.
:hmmm:
Mike
On the other hand, Loving County, Texas had 82 in 2010, was estimated at 169 in 2019, and counted only 64 in 2020 – it was predicted to more than double, but it went down instead.
How can they get that wrong? They could literally just physically count every person who lives there
PSA: Official county-level population data for the 2020 Census is now available on the Census website.
https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/interactive/2020-population-and-housing-state-data.html
Quote from: Scott5114 on August 12, 2021, 06:24:59 PM
Quote from: roadman65 on August 12, 2021, 06:14:50 PM
Houston is getting close to overtaking Chicago. With people fleeing NY lately, it won't be long that they become third.
What makes you think they're fleeing to Houston, though? Especially considering that all of the NY counties that lost population are upstate.
"People are fleeing NY!" was never a narrative that I believed on any level, and the data released today prove it. If there's been any mass migration out of NYC, it's primarily been
since (and possibly during) the 2020 census; and at least some has been to elsewhere in the state.
You are correct about the counties losing population all being Upstate. To get a bit more granular, since 2010:
-All five of NYC's boroughs grew by at least 5%
-The Long Island counties, Nassau and Suffolk, grew by 4.2% and 2.2% respectively
-Westchester County grew by 5.8%, Orange by 7.6%, and Rockland by 8.5%
-Of the remaining 52 counties, only 13 gained population, of which 10 are pretty obvious: Erie (Buffalo), Monroe (Rochester), Ontario (Rochester suburbs/exurbs), Onondaga (Syracuse), Jefferson (Watertown), Tompkins (Ithaca), Albany, Schenectady, Saratoga, Rensselaer (Albany area). The remaining 3 are oddballs: Warren (north of Albany, mostly rural, broke even with a +30 numeric increase), Hamilton (smallest county in the state with only 5,107 residents, likely a variation in seasonal residents), and Sullivan (mostly rural, but borderline NYC exurbia).
-Overall, 14 of the 15 most populous counties gained population. Dutchess is the only exception with a -0.5% loss.
Quote from: webny99 on August 12, 2021, 10:09:53 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on August 12, 2021, 06:24:59 PM
Quote from: roadman65 on August 12, 2021, 06:14:50 PM
Houston is getting close to overtaking Chicago. With people fleeing NY lately, it won't be long that they become third.
What makes you think they're fleeing to Houston, though? Especially considering that all of the NY counties that lost population are upstate.
"People are fleeing NY!" was never a narrative that I believed on any level, and the data released today prove it. If there's been any mass migration out of NYC, it's primarily been since (and possibly during) the 2020 census; and at least some has been to elsewhere in the state.
You are correct about the counties losing population all being Upstate. To get a bit more granular, since 2010:
-All five of NYC's boroughs grew by at least 5%
-The Long Island counties, Nassau and Suffolk, grew by 4.2% and 2.2% respectively
-Westchester County grew by 5.8%, Orange by 7.6%, and Rockland by 8.5%
-Of the remaining 52 counties, only 13 gained population, of which 10 are pretty obvious: Erie (Buffalo), Monroe (Rochester), Ontario (Rochester suburbs/exurbs), Onondaga (Syracuse), Jefferson (Watertown), Tompkins (Ithaca), Albany, Schenectady, Saratoga, Rensselaer (Albany area). The remaining 3 are oddballs: Warren (north of Albany, mostly rural, broke even with a +30 numeric increase), Hamilton (smallest county in the state with only 5,107 residents, likely a variation in seasonal residents), and Sullivan (mostly rural, but borderline NYC exurbia).
-Overall, 14 of the top 15 counties gained population. Dutchess is the only exception with a -0.5% loss.
Except that's literally the truth and it's been so for decades.
(https://i.imgur.com/GaOBpRx.jpg)
In case you haven't noticed, I'm super excited to have the 2020 census data!
A few more topline takeaways: the two things that I wanted most both happened. My state passed 20M residents (somewhat surprising) and my county passed 750K residents (unsurprising to me, but a surprise according to estimates, which predicted a decrease from the 744,344 reported in 2010; instead, the actual figure is 759,443 :))
A third thing that wasn't even on my radar but I am happy about: the city of Rochester grew for the first time in 70 years. Sure, it was only by 0.36% (from 210,674 to 211,328), but still, a positive's a positive! There was a tradeoff, however: the growth wasn't quite enough to stay ahead of Yonkers (which I thought was in a different league with only 193K residents back in 2010... yikes). So for the first time since 1898 (!), Yonkers now edges Rochester out as the third-largest city in the state with a population of 211,569... so close.
https://www.wxxinews.org/post/census-rochester-falls-new-yorks-fourth-largest-city
After finally weeding out those .pl files, here are my observations of Iowa's census numbers:
- Despite the Des Moines Register calling the city's growth "sluggish" (https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2021/08/12/while-iowa-grows-slowly-suburban-des-moines-booms-2020-census-data-results-ankeny-grimes-waukee/8106893002/), the city of Des Moines' population of 214,133 is an all-time record, breaking the one set in 1960.
- Davenport is back over 100,000 for the first time since the 1980s, at 101,724.
- West Des Moines (68,723) is barely ahead of Ankeny (67,887) for most populous Des Moines suburb. Given Ankeny's phenomenal rate of growth, it will probably overtake WDM by mid-decade.
- On that note, ten of Des Moines' suburbs now have populations over 10,000: Altoona, Ankeny, Clive, Grimes, Johnston, Norwalk, Pleasant Hill, Urbandale, Waukee, and West Des Moines. In 1990 only three suburbs (Ankeny, Urbandale, and WDM) had that many people.
- Meanwhile, Burlington (23,982), Clinton (24,469), and Fort Dodge (24,871) have all dropped below 25,000; Ottumwa (25,529) managed to eke out a small gain. And Keokuk (9,900) has dropped below 10,000 for the first time since the 60s... the 1860s.
- In all, 42 cities have more than 10,000 people, with 26 having more than 20,000 and 11 having more than 50,000.
- Among the new CDP's, the one that caught me by surprise is Kent Estates, with a population of 2,074. Neither the Iowa DOT map nor Google Maps shows it. Wikipedia says it's just outside of Muscatine.
- The Omaha-Council Bluffs MSA is knocking on the door of 1 million, with 967,604. Des Moines remains the largest MSA entirely in Iowa, with 709,466.
- I knew Dallas County was growing rapidly, but didn't think it would flirt with 100,000 (it came just short, with 99,678). Even the county seat of Adel now has 6,153 people. The areas of growth continue to be in central, eastern, and northwest Iowa, with rural counties continuing to decline.
- The smallest incorporated city would have been Pioneer in Humboldt County, population 4, but it disincorporated last year. Le Roy in Decatur County, with 11, is the smallest now.
EDIT: The complete list is online at the Iowa Data Center (https://www.iowadatacenter.org/data/decennial/Pop2020).
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on August 09, 2021, 11:40:45 PM
Quote from: 1 on August 09, 2021, 07:59:44 PM
August 12, 1 PM EDT. Put it on your calendar.
Happens to also be my birthday!
Happy birthday, Roadgeekteen!
Quote from: kernals12 on August 12, 2021, 08:39:43 PM
Quote from: 1 on August 12, 2021, 07:21:19 PM
Quote from: mgk920 on August 12, 2021, 07:16:05 PM
How did NYC get to over 8.8M? They cracked 8M for the first time in the city's history in 2000 and ISTR that estimates had them shrinking in recent years.
:hmmm:
Mike
On the other hand, Loving County, Texas had 82 in 2010, was estimated at 169 in 2019, and counted only 64 in 2020 – it was predicted to more than double, but it went down instead.
How can they get that wrong? They could literally just physically count every person who lives there
Estimates are based on the American Community Survey, which only goes to a percentage of households each year. In a county as small as Loving, likely only 1-2 households were sampled, so an increase in the count in those households would be extrapolated as an increase in the entire county. The process really isn't reliable for populations that small.
Wikipedia list of cities over 100,000 has been updated: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population
Quote from: Scott5114 on August 12, 2021, 06:24:59 PM
Quote from: roadman65 on August 12, 2021, 06:14:50 PM
Houston is getting close to overtaking Chicago. With people fleeing NY lately, it won't be long that they become third.
What makes you think they're fleeing to Houston, though? Especially considering that all of the NY counties that lost population are upstate.
There has been a surge in population in the Houston Area for some time. Many New Yorkers are fleeing the high taxes and ether moving to Florida or that part of Texas. Plus development there attracts people. Also hen TX SH 99 is completed you can figure on more development along its corridor to warrant more growth and attract more outsiders.
Quote from: roadman65 on August 13, 2021, 08:49:04 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on August 12, 2021, 06:24:59 PM
Quote from: roadman65 on August 12, 2021, 06:14:50 PM
Houston is getting close to overtaking Chicago. With people fleeing NY lately, it won't be long that they become third.
What makes you think they're fleeing to Houston, though? Especially considering that all of the NY counties that lost population are upstate.
There has been a surge in population in the Houston Area for some time. Many New Yorkers are fleeing the high taxes and ether moving to Florida or that part of Texas. Plus development there attracts people. Also hen TX SH 99 is completed you can figure on more development along its corridor to warrant more growth and attract more outsiders.
So...Texas is turning blue. I don't know if this movement is as clear as you're making it out to be.
Quote from: 1 on August 13, 2021, 08:20:56 AM
Wikipedia list of cities over 100,000 has been updated: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population
Looks like there's a decent chance that my city enters the top 50 come 2030.
Chris
Let's face it, the real update we're looking for is for the Top 300 U.S. Cities by Population quiz on Sporcle.
Quote from: roadman65 on August 13, 2021, 08:49:04 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on August 12, 2021, 06:24:59 PM
Quote from: roadman65 on August 12, 2021, 06:14:50 PM
Houston is getting close to overtaking Chicago. With people fleeing NY lately, it won't be long that they become third.
What makes you think they're fleeing to Houston, though? Especially considering that all of the NY counties that lost population are upstate.
There has been a surge in population in the Houston Area for some time. Many New Yorkers are fleeing the high taxes and ether moving to Florida or that part of Texas. Plus development there attracts people. Also hen TX SH 99 is completed you can figure on more development along its corridor to warrant more growth and attract more outsiders.
New Yorkers aren't "fleeing" anything except for high property values driven by real estate speculation (from both capital management companies and foreign investors). Most emigrants from NY/NJ/CT are headed to the Metroplex, due to similar established industries (corporate management, finance).
Houston had all its tri-state relocations in the '70s-'80s when the oil majors moved their headquarters from the Northeast. If anyone from that part of the country is headed down there, it would be retirees/remote workers who want to live in a large house and warm climate close to their kids in Dallas/Austin.
Houston's growth in the past decade has been from energy relocations and secondary services (now significantly slowing), along with foreign immigration owing to its status as a port city.
Quote from: roadman65 on August 13, 2021, 08:49:04 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on August 12, 2021, 06:24:59 PM
Quote from: roadman65 on August 12, 2021, 06:14:50 PM
Houston is getting close to overtaking Chicago. With people fleeing NY lately, it won't be long that they become third.
What makes you think they're fleeing to Houston, though? Especially considering that all of the NY counties that lost population are upstate.
There has been a surge in population in the Houston Area for some time. Many New Yorkers are fleeing the high taxes and ether moving to Florida or that part of Texas. Plus development there attracts people. Also hen TX SH 99 is completed you can figure on more development along its corridor to warrant more growth and attract more outsiders.
Just because upstate New York is declining and Houston is growing doesn't mean that people are moving
from New York
to Houston. There are counties in Oklahoma that are losing population too; I think it'd be more likely that
those people are moving to Houston than New Yorkers are (given that Houston is a center for the oil industry, and lots of Oklahomans are already employed in the oil industry).
And the WSJ today has roughed out the figures and identified the districts that will have to get "smaller" , which is to say geographically smaller in order to encompass the correct number of people. The suburbs of Houston, Austin, Dallas, Orlando, Las Vegas, and Atlanta. The largest increase in population among current districts were TX 22, south suburban Houston, with 40% more people living there now than when it was drawn in 2011; FL 9 , south suburban Orlando; TX 26, Denton County north of Dallas; TX 10, a contorted district running from Austin's edge to Houston's; and TX 31, Austin's northern suburbs.
It reports that virtually all the population growth in the country was in suburbs and exurbs; both urban cores and rural areas lost population.
Quote from: cabiness42 on August 13, 2021, 07:25:14 AM
Quote from: kernals12 on August 12, 2021, 08:39:43 PM
Quote from: 1 on August 12, 2021, 07:21:19 PM
On the other hand, Loving County, Texas had 82 in 2010, was estimated at 169 in 2019, and counted only 64 in 2020 – it was predicted to more than double, but it went down instead.
How can they get that wrong? They could literally just physically count every person who lives there
Estimates are based on the American Community Survey, which only goes to a percentage of households each year. In a county as small as Loving, likely only 1-2 households were sampled, so an increase in the count in those households would be extrapolated as an increase in the entire county. The process really isn't reliable for populations that small.
I also wonder if the fickle nature of the oil fracking business has something to do with it too.
Minnesota:
-The 10-county Twin Cities metro area grew rapidly, Ramsey County (St. Paul) not as much as the others, but still by almost 9%. Exurban counties like Carver and Scott grew the fastest, and the effects could definitely be seen in the 2020 elections for those familiar with what to look for.
-St. Louis County (Duluth) grew by precisely 5 people. I wonder what counties had the the closest net to zero change.
-It was about 50/50 on outstate counties gaining/losing population. What surprised me a bit was Otter Tail County grew by nearly 5% and nearby Becker County by over 8%.
The fastest-growing county in Oklahoma is Canadian County (OKC west surburbs). I figured it would be Cleveland (south suburbs) or McClain (south exurbs).
I can do a snapshot for Colorado.
- 5th fastest growing state, and now 21st most populous overall (passing Minnesota)
- Greeley is the 4th fastest growing metro area
- Denver went from 26th largest city to 19th (Passing Detroit, El Paso, Memphis, Baltimore, Boston, Washington, and Nashville)
- Colorado Springs went from 42nd largest city to 40th (Passing Long Beach and Virginia Beach)
- Aurora went from 56th largest city to 51st (Passing Cleveland, New Orleans, Honolulu, Anaheim and Tampa)
- Fort Collins went from 171st largest city to 156th (Passing Hayward, Bridgeport, Syracuse, Torrance, Kansas City (KS), Paterson, Joliet, Pasadena, Pomona, Salinas, Corona, Palmdale, Rockford, Springfield (MA), and Springfield (MO))
- Colorado now has 10 cities with a population greater than 100K (Greeley and Boulder joined the club, and the only states with more are California, Florida, and Texas)
- Broomfield County is the fastest growing county in the state (+32.6%) with Weld County not far behind (+30.2%)
- 16 of the 64 counties increased in population by more than 10%
- The least populous county in Colorado changed from Mineral County to Hinsdale County (788 people)
- 16 of the 64 counties declined in population with the worst being Kit Carson County (-14.3%)
Chris
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on August 13, 2021, 03:50:18 PM
-St. Louis County (Duluth) grew by precisely 5 people. I wonder what counties had the the closest net to zero change.
Washington County in Colorado grew by 3 people. There's my entry.
Edit: Yakutat City & Borough in Alaska remained exactly the same (662).
Chris
I am surprised by Dearborn, MI, which appears to have broken the 100,000 mark to the point where it's in the top 300.
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on August 13, 2021, 03:50:18 PM
-St. Louis County (Duluth) grew by precisely 5 people. I wonder what counties had the the closest net to zero change.
Upthread I mentioned Warren County, NY, which increased by 30 people. But St. Louis County definitely has that beat, because Warren is also much smaller in total population.
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on August 13, 2021, 03:50:18 PM
-It was about 50/50 on outstate counties gaining/losing population. What surprised me a bit was Otter Tail County grew by nearly 5% and nearby Becker County by over 8%.
Those are both counties with a good portion of seasonal residents, correct?
I ask because, however surprised you were about Otter Tail and Becker, I was twice as surprised by Hamilton County, NY (the smallest county in the state with a total 2020 population of 5,107). There's simply no way Hamilton County has actually grown by 5% since 2010 while almost every other rural county declined, so there must be something else going on. I can't help but wonder if a number of seasonal residents came back early during Covid, so they were there for the census instead of Florida or wherever. Maybe something similar is going on with the Detroit Lakes region.
I'm surprised at how far off the 2020 estimates were compared to the census (though this is my first time comparing estimate numbers to the coming census, so let me know if stuff like this is normal). Like St Louis County was estimated to lose population from 999k in the 2010 census to 994k in the 2020 estimates, but actually gained about 5k people to 1.004m in the 2020 census counts. This isn't the worst example, just one that actually gained population when a loss was projected that was in my mind.
Quote from: SkyPesos on August 13, 2021, 11:12:25 PM
I'm surprised at how far off the 2020 estimates were compared to the census (though this is my first time comparing estimate numbers to the coming census, so let me know if stuff like this is normal). Like St Louis County was estimated to lose population from 999k in the 2010 census to 994k in the 2020 estimates, but actually gained about 5k people to 1.004m in the 2020 census counts. This isn't the worst example, just one that actually gained population when a loss was projected that was in my mind.
They even moved Jacksonville down a spot. Looks like they managed to fix that (we had moved down to #13 before moving back up to #12).
I was expecting us to move back down to #14, which is where we were in 2000. That didn't happen.
When Jacksonville did the 2010 Census a decade ago, it moved up to #11. That must've felt good (that was before I left New Jersey for Florida, though). Now, if we ever move up to #10 or higher...
Meanwhile, Duval County is now #6
in Florida population-wise, which is interesting because that means that Pinellas County is #7 now. Feels great living in a county with almost a million people (the last time this was the case was in NY). Especially now that the population is more diverse and is more like a minority-majority place. Though, it's still somewhat short of that in actuality. But that's ok.Moving on to metro areas/TV markets, Metro Jacksonville has moved past that of Greater Milwaukee (we're at #39 now). It's still behind the other three Florida metro areas, though (no way will we ever get to the size and scope of Miami's metropolitan area!). As mentioned in another thread on this forum, Orlando just surpassed Miami in the size of their TV market (makes sense, due to UCF being a powerhouse nowadays). And while Disney World continues to be a victim of their own success, Universal Orlando is in the process of expansion, adding not only new hotels and rides (which is what Disney World seems to be stuck doing), but an actual expansion of their theme park palette over on Sand Lake Road, near the airport (something that had to wait back in the day, due to the
Glenn Luther Martin Company having built their old, historic facility in 1957, a catalyst for I-4 construction, before merging with the American-Marietta Corporation in 1961 and then, later, with the Allan Haines Lockheed Corporation in 1995, forming the Allan Haines Lockheed Glenn Luther Martin Corporation).
Quote from: kernals12 on August 12, 2021, 10:28:05 PM
Quote from: webny99 on August 12, 2021, 10:09:53 PM
"People are fleeing NY!" was never a narrative that I believed on any level, and the data released today prove it. If there's been any mass migration out of NYC, it's primarily been since (and possibly during) the 2020 census; and at least some has been to elsewhere in the state.
Except that's literally the truth and it's been so for decades.
[img snipped]
A net loss from domestic migration does not necessarily mean "people are fleeing". For a state that significantly exceeded expectations and grew by 4% over the last decade, while three other states actually
lost population, that's a misguided statement at best.
Quote from: Scott5114 on August 13, 2021, 01:36:06 PM
Quote from: roadman65 on August 13, 2021, 08:49:04 AM
There has been a surge in population in the Houston Area for some time. Many New Yorkers are fleeing the high taxes and ether moving to Florida or that part of Texas. Plus development there attracts people. Also hen TX SH 99 is completed you can figure on more development along its corridor to warrant more growth and attract more outsiders.
Just because upstate New York is declining and Houston is growing doesn't mean that people are moving from New York to Houston. There are counties in Oklahoma that are losing population too; I think it'd be more likely that those people are moving to Houston than New Yorkers are (given that Houston is a center for the oil industry, and lots of Oklahomans are already employed in the oil industry).
Yeah, I don't get it. The whole "people are fleeing NY" narrative is based around New York
City, right? And that only makes sense because NYC is the largest city in the country, and therefore, if people are fleeing, it could
potentially be
a lot of people. But NYC's growth since 2010 was actually quite robust, exceeding almost all prior estimates. So if you take NYC out of the picture, you're left with Upstate NY, which is nothing at all like NYC and in fact not a whole lot different than Pennsylvania or Ohio. Population-wise, Upstate NY has about 6 million people, comparable to Wisconsin or Minnesota. So saying that NY's population loss will cause Houston to surpass Chicago is no different than saying MN or WI's population loss will cause Houston to surpass Chicago. But that doesn't make any sense, since rural areas all over the country are losing population, and cities all over the country are growing. There's no evidence that any two specific examples are correlated, not to mention that there are many other factors besides domestic migration at play, including international migration and an aging population.
So if the discussion is about Houston encroaching on Chicago in total population, removing NY from the equation entirely would be a good place to start.
Quote from: OCGuy81 on May 03, 2021, 10:12:02 AM
The 2021 Rand McNally Atlas still has Florida at 4th for population. It looks like 2022 is out (saw a post about this recently) so I'm guessing the ranking swap between NY and FL will be effective in the 2023 edition.
It's interesting how NY and FL swapped places, because isn't Florida a LOT of transplanted New Yorkers, or is that an old stereotype?
It's has to be an old stereotype at this point. But then again there is an ongoing stereotype of Northern California going to Reno , Austin , Dallas, North Carolina Research Triangle area, Colorado, Oregon and Washington State. Also there is an ongoing stereotype of Southern California residents moving to Arizona, Las Vegas, Houston, Atlanta, and Tennessee.
But back to this one I heard of another stereotype that Florida has ex Venezuela and Cuban residents or refugees in the article.
Quote from: bing101 on August 14, 2021, 12:27:44 PM
Quote from: OCGuy81 on May 03, 2021, 10:12:02 AM
The 2021 Rand McNally Atlas still has Florida at 4th for population. It looks like 2022 is out (saw a post about this recently) so I'm guessing the ranking swap between NY and FL will be effective in the 2023 edition.
It's interesting how NY and FL swapped places, because isn't Florida a LOT of transplanted New Yorkers, or is that an old stereotype?
It's has to be an old stereotype at this point. But then again there is an ongoing stereotype of Northern California going to Reno , Austin , Dallas, North Carolina Research Triangle area, Colorado, Oregon and Washington State. Also there is an ongoing stereotype of Southern California residents moving to Arizona, Las Vegas, Houston, Atlanta, and Tennessee.
There was a video being circulated on the OKCTalk forums at one point of a Bay Area news station doing a "wow would you look at that" story on a family that sold their Bay Area home to move to Guthrie, Oklahoma. Of course, they tied it into the larger "people are fleeing CA in droves" narrative, but I guess Oklahoma as a destination was perceived as unusual enough by the Bay Area press that it was considered worth writing a story over.
I see Roanoke, VA came in at #326 (last for cities over 100k pop. and first time since 1980), barely making it over by 11 people. Congratulations Roanoke.
Montgomery is about to overtake Birmingham as AL's largest city*, but only because Birmingham is losing people at a faster rate than Montgomery :spin:
*EDIT: 2nd largest, I forgot about Huntsville.
Every census since at least 1990, the census has put out a text file listing every incorporated place and CDP, along with population, number of housing units, latitude, and longitude.
Anyone know if they have this out yet, or where I can find it?
Quote from: bandit957 on August 14, 2021, 08:07:04 PM
Every census since at least 1990, the census has put out a text file listing every incorporated place and CDP, along with population, number of housing units, latitude, and longitude.
Anyone know if they have this out yet, or where I can find it?
See replies 171-176 - It's not out yet, but it will be out by Sept. 30.
Wake County is now the largest county in North Carolina, even though second-place Mecklenburg contains Charlotte, the state's largest city. Wake is physically larger than Mecklenburg, so that could possibly play a role.
My county (Hinds, MS) has dropped quite a bit to the point that Harrison County could overtake us, probably in the next 15-20 years.
Nashville appears it will be the largest city in Tennessee. I saw this coming, so no surprise.
Is it possible that Fort Worth will grow larger than Austin in the near future?
Quote from: golden eagle on August 16, 2021, 10:19:40 PM
Is it possible that Fort Worth will grow larger than Austin in the near future?
It's remotely possible, but seems very unlikely because they're so comparable in terms of growth rates. If anything, Austin has been the faster-growing of the two in recent years.
Also, three Houston suburbs (Pearland, League City, and Sugar Land) have made it to the 100k club. What makes these three stand out is their change since the last census (+37.89%, +36.90%, and +40.87%, respectively). All three are in the top eleven fastest-growing 100k+ cities. However, Frisco has them all beat with a percent change of 71.39%!
Also I noticed Phoenix overtook Philadelphia as the 5th-largest city in the US.
I didn't say it before because I was in a bit of denial when I saw the numbers but dammit I got to say it.. I see you Newark and Jersey City!
Really Jersey City wasn't too shocking per se but Newark definitely was a surprise.
I was surprised that Fayetteville (and not Springdale) was the city that jumped Fort Smith to become the second-largest in Arkansas. The conventional thought was that Fayetteville is land-locked by surrounding towns and won't be able to grow much more, and Springdale at least had space to develop.
Or maybe it's just as simple as Fayetteville had better response to the census.
Population density may also be increasing faster in Fayetteville (which would make sense, as that's where the university is).
Quote from: Scott5114 on August 17, 2021, 09:22:25 PM
Population density may also be increasing faster in Fayetteville (which would make sense, as that's where the university is).
Do they count university students in the city's population? Even if their primary address is outside the city?
Quote from: I-55 on August 17, 2021, 10:48:16 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on August 17, 2021, 09:22:25 PM
Population density may also be increasing faster in Fayetteville (which would make sense, as that's where the university is).
Do they count university students in the city's population? Even if their primary address is outside the city?
Ithaca, NY wanted to try this.
Pennsylvania...
-Phoenix overtakes Philadelphia for 5th populous city; Philly grew by 5% versus an 11% growth in Phoenix
-Pennsylvania overtakes Illinois to become the 5th populous state - this gap is currently 200,000 people
-Cumberland County is the fastest growing county in Pennsylvania, with a percent change of 9.31% - it is on pace to overtake Erie County
-Other regions of growth are the Philadelphia suburbs, the Lehigh Valley, and the Susquehanna Valley. One exception is Centre County, which is home to State College
-Cameron County had a negative growth rate of 14.60%; the primary losers were in the northern half of the state, except for Cambria (loss of 11%) located west of Altoona
Quote from: I-55 on August 17, 2021, 10:48:16 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on August 17, 2021, 09:22:25 PM
Population density may also be increasing faster in Fayetteville (which would make sense, as that's where the university is).
Do they count university students in the city's population? Even if their primary address is outside the city?
cabiness would have a better answer to this. However, I would imagine a college town would be associated with a higher rate of multi-family dwellings like apartments. Some students may rent off-campus apartments and stay there even when classes are not in session (meaning they would unquestionably count toward their college town in the census, and not where their parents live.
Quote from: Scott5114 on August 18, 2021, 12:12:42 AM
Quote from: I-55 on August 17, 2021, 10:48:16 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on August 17, 2021, 09:22:25 PM
Population density may also be increasing faster in Fayetteville (which would make sense, as that's where the university is).
Do they count university students in the city's population? Even if their primary address is outside the city?
cabiness would have a better answer to this. However, I would imagine a college town would be associated with a higher rate of multi-family dwellings like apartments. Some students may rent off-campus apartments and stay there even when classes are not in session (meaning they would unquestionably count toward their college town in the census, and not where their parents live.
From census web site:
QuotePer the Census Bureau's residence criteria, in most cases students living away from home at school should be counted at school, even if they are temporarily elsewhere due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/modifying-2020-operations-for-counting-college-students.html
Quote from: I-55 on August 17, 2021, 10:48:16 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on August 17, 2021, 09:22:25 PM
Population density may also be increasing faster in Fayetteville (which would make sense, as that's where the university is).
Do they count university students in the city's population? Even if their primary address is outside the city?
Students living in a college dorm or off-campus housing as of Census day should be counted there. If dorms were closed on April 1 due to COVID, students who had been living there were still supposed to be counted there, but obviously that was more challenging.
As for counting toward a city's population, that of course depends on the dorms/housing being in side the city limits. In the case of Notre Dame, for example, the campus is not within the city limits of South Bend or any other city (thus the existence of the Notre Dame CDP) but most off-campus student housing is.
Because different states define and classify a "city" differently, and because many cities are located on rivers that are state lines, I have always thought that the MSA is a better measure of city size. Really, the best measure of a city's sphere of influence, IMHO, is the Nielsen DMA.
Since people are doing their states, I will do WV's horrid numbers:
- WV lost more %age of people than any other state, 3.3%. Only MS and IL also lost population, both much smaller losses.
- Only eight (of 55) counties gained population. Berkeley gained 17% and Jefferson gained 8%. Both are exurbs of the DC metro area. Monongalia, the home of WVU, gained 10% and its only suburb, Preston, gained 2%. Putnam, the suburban county between Huntington and Charleston, gained, but only 3%, having gained 12, 17, 38, 12, 20 and 8 %s in the previous 6 censuses, an indication that it is both getting kind of full, and that the flight from the rest of the state also affects its bureaucrats (Kanawha, the state capital) lost 6%. Hardy and Pleasants had tiny gains, but have tiny populations to start with, making %age discussions misleading. The only difficult to explain one is Lewis, which grew by a solid 4%.
As to cities, such as they are, Charleston and Huntington continue to be within a few thousand of each other., in the high 40s. Morgantown has grown to over 30K, passing Parkersburg which is down to 29K.
Urban areas and especially college towns are damn lucky the census was conducted in April 2020, instead of being conducted right now.
Quote from: bandit957 on August 18, 2021, 09:24:38 AM
Urban areas and especially college towns are damn lucky the census was conducted in April 2020, instead of being conducted right now.
How? College towns almost certainly got undercounted with students normally living there living at home during the pandemic. As cabiness states those students were supposed to still be counted towards their college town, but that is a hell of a lot harder when nobody is on campus to count or be counted.
Quote from: US 89 on August 18, 2021, 09:34:21 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on August 18, 2021, 09:24:38 AM
Urban areas and especially college towns are damn lucky the census was conducted in April 2020, instead of being conducted right now.
How? College towns almost certainly got undercounted with students normally living there living at home during the pandemic.
I keep hearing about how college enrollment is way down now, even after the pandemic.
Quote from: cabiness42 on August 18, 2021, 07:40:37 AM
Quote from: I-55 on August 17, 2021, 10:48:16 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on August 17, 2021, 09:22:25 PM
Population density may also be increasing faster in Fayetteville (which would make sense, as that's where the university is).
Do they count university students in the city's population? Even if their primary address is outside the city?
Students living in a college dorm or off-campus housing as of Census day should be counted there. If dorms were closed on April 1 due to COVID, students who had been living there were still supposed to be counted there, but obviously that was more challenging.
As for counting toward a city's population, that of course depends on the dorms/housing being in side the city limits. In the case of Notre Dame, for example, the campus is not within the city limits of South Bend or any other city (thus the existence of the Notre Dame CDP) but most off-campus student housing is.
I remember fun (or horror, depending on which side of the table you are) story about voting at local university dorms. The parcel is split between 3 municipalities, so students had to report building, sometimes room, and most lucky ones - location of their beds within the room - to be assigned to proper poll. All in the name of protecting student's rights, of course.
Another aspect of it, one of 3 fire departments should respond to a 911 call, depending on where the call comes from. Since state university dorms are tax exempt, no FD is willing to take more responsibility than they must...
Quote from: bandit957 on August 18, 2021, 09:35:45 AM
I keep hearing about how college enrollment is way down now, even after the pandemic.
I know a young lady who was literally all packed up for college, ready to move from Wichita up to KU. Then she found out all but one of her courses would be online only. She had zero interest in living in a college dorm for a bunch of online classes, would rather just stay living at home for that. So she's no longer going to KU: she's staying home and going to community college for a while instead. Last-minute change of plans, and such would have affected where she's counted for the census.
Here's an interesting and really mind-blowing fact about New York that goes a long way towards explaining why upstate NY is so irrelevant to NYC:
If you remove upstate NY, which has a population of about 6.1 million depending on your exact definition, the remainder of NY state (NYC, Long Island and environs) is still the 4th-most populous state in the country, with a population of about 14.1 million. And not only that, there's still a comfortable margin of ~1 million people over 5th-place Pennsylvania.
So when we say that downstate NY controls state politics, doesn't care about anything upstate or even acknowledge that it exists, keep that in mind: it's the 4th-most populous state with or without 80% of it's land area.
Quote from: kphoger on August 18, 2021, 10:56:28 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on August 18, 2021, 09:35:45 AM
I keep hearing about how college enrollment is way down now, even after the pandemic.
I know a young lady who was literally all packed up for college, ready to move from Wichita up to KU. Then she found out all but one of her courses would be online only. She had zero interest in living in a college dorm for a bunch of online classes, would rather just stay living at home for that. So she's no longer going to KU: she's staying home and going to community college for a while instead. Last-minute change of plans, and such would have affected where she's counted for the census.
Online education seems to be a disaster, and there is no guarantee things would be much better this year. Those who can actually learn online would be much better served with specially prepared edX and Coursera classes compared to makeshift ones most schools made in a hurry (guilty as charged myself).
Hot job market and possible change in tuition policies should also play a role.
Quote from: webny99 on August 18, 2021, 11:01:21 AM
Here's an interesting and really mind-blowing fact about New York that goes a long way towards explaining why upstate NY is so irrelevant to NYC:
If you remove upstate NY, which has a population of about 6.1 million depending on your exact definition, the remainder of NY state (NYC, Long Island and environs) is still the 4th-most populous state in the country, with a population of about 14.1 million. And not only that, there's still a comfortable margin of ~1 million people over 5th-place Pennsylvania.
So when we say that downstate NY controls state politics, doesn't care about anything upstate or even acknowledge that it exists, keep that in mind: it's the 4th-most populous state with or without 80% of it's land area.
Not as extreme as NYC for NY, but if you take out all of the counties that's part of the Chicago metro area out of Illinois and make it its own state, the population of the Illinois would drop to 4,081,820, and be the 28th most populous state between Oregon and Oklahoma, while Chicago would be the 11th most populous state with a population of 8,730,688, between New Jersey and Virginia.
Quote from: kalvado on August 18, 2021, 11:32:57 AM
Quote from: kphoger on August 18, 2021, 10:56:28 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on August 18, 2021, 09:35:45 AM
I keep hearing about how college enrollment is way down now, even after the pandemic.
I know a young lady who was literally all packed up for college, ready to move from Wichita up to KU. Then she found out all but one of her courses would be online only. She had zero interest in living in a college dorm for a bunch of online classes, would rather just stay living at home for that. So she's no longer going to KU: she's staying home and going to community college for a while instead. Last-minute change of plans, and such would have affected where she's counted for the census.
Online education seems to be a disaster, and there is no guarantee things would be much better this year. Those who can actually learn online would be much better served with specially prepared edX and Coursera classes compared to makeshift ones most schools made in a hurry (guilty as charged myself).
Hot job market and possible change in tuition policies should also play a role.
And the thing is, there's no reason online education
has to be a disaster. Teachers just don't have the skill set needed to produce engaging content, and try to compensate for that by enforcing rules that make sense in the classroom but not online (like getting onto someone for eating in class–it's disruptive if someone does it in real life, but if the kid's mic is muted and they're eating, if the teacher calls them out for it they're being the disruptive one, not the student).
I'll have to check out Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee to see how much they have grown, particularly their metropolitan areas.
According to the 2019 estimates (and I may count metropolitan areas differently than you by counties), the metropolitan areas over 2 million in those 3 states were approximately:
Miami: 6.2 million
Atlanta: 6.1 million
Tampa: 4.7 million
Orlando: 3.7 million
Nashville: 2.1 million
Quote from: Scott5114 on August 18, 2021, 02:12:35 PM
Quote from: kalvado on August 18, 2021, 11:32:57 AM
Quote from: kphoger on August 18, 2021, 10:56:28 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on August 18, 2021, 09:35:45 AM
I keep hearing about how college enrollment is way down now, even after the pandemic.
I know a young lady who was literally all packed up for college, ready to move from Wichita up to KU. Then she found out all but one of her courses would be online only. She had zero interest in living in a college dorm for a bunch of online classes, would rather just stay living at home for that. So she's no longer going to KU: she's staying home and going to community college for a while instead. Last-minute change of plans, and such would have affected where she's counted for the census.
Online education seems to be a disaster, and there is no guarantee things would be much better this year. Those who can actually learn online would be much better served with specially prepared edX and Coursera classes compared to makeshift ones most schools made in a hurry (guilty as charged myself).
Hot job market and possible change in tuition policies should also play a role.
And the thing is, there's no reason online education has to be a disaster. Teachers just don't have the skill set needed to produce engaging content, and try to compensate for that by enforcing rules that make sense in the classroom but not online (like getting onto someone for eating in class–it's disruptive if someone does it in real life, but if the kid's mic is muted and they're eating, if the teacher calls them out for it they're being the disruptive one, not the student).
I'm afraid, student motivation is a huge part of online learning - and a lacking part, even for college students.
Eating is a part of the same story, they may not be disruptive per se - but definitely paying less than full attention (if any attention).
Quote from: Scott5114 on August 18, 2021, 02:12:35 PM
And the thing is, there's no reason online education has to be a disaster.
Is there any good online solution for special ed? Step one for a lot of those issues is physical proximity: for the teacher to physically get down to the student's level and make eye contact.
So I found the Census Bureau's map, by county, of population change. And I have some questions and some observations.
- The map shows a general small decline in most rural counties, but some rural counties are holding their own and even growing a bit. Much of northern New England, and a few counties in northern NY. Much of south eastern PA, like Lancaster County and around that. The Great Valley of Virginia. Almost all of TN, except the western edge. Most of the Mountain West and the inland Pacific Northwest. Much of WI and MN.
- Likewise some rural places are really emptying fast. The coalfields of WV, KY and VA, obviously. This I get, but someone explain a few others. The area between the fall line and the shore in NC lost a lot. Never that wealthy of a place, but nothing much has changed in 10 years, some of these counties lost upwards of 15%. Southwest GA. Most of the Mississippi River counties from MO and IL south. Again, never that big or prosperous of a place, but no real economic collapse there either. Much of the Texas panhandle (oil issues?). Southeastern MO. This one really is baffling, as it has a climate and topography very similar to the rural parts of TN that are growing.
- Apparently the biggest loser is Alexander County, IL, -36%. Now that is only 3000 people, but what happened there? Plant shut down? Flood?
Quote from: SP Cook on August 18, 2021, 03:20:50 PM
- Apparently the biggest loser is Alexander County, IL, -36%. Now that is only 3000 people, but what happened there? Plant shut down? Flood?
One big hit was that a public housing complex in Cairo was falling apart, so it was shut down in 2017. About 200 families lost their homes.
Quote from: kphoger on August 18, 2021, 03:32:06 PM
Quote from: SP Cook on August 18, 2021, 03:20:50 PM
- Apparently the biggest loser is Alexander County, IL, -36%. Now that is only 3000 people, but what happened there? Plant shut down? Flood?
One big hit was that a public housing complex in Cairo was falling apart, so it was shut down in 2017. About 200 families lost their homes.
I heard the whole town of Cairo was falling apart.
Lately the whole state of Illinois has been falling apart.
Quote from: bandit957 on August 18, 2021, 03:40:25 PM
Lately the whole state of Illinois has been falling apart.
I think you mean it's going
downhill.
Quote from: bandit957 on August 18, 2021, 03:40:25 PM
Quote from: kphoger on August 18, 2021, 03:32:06 PM
Quote from: SP Cook on August 18, 2021, 03:20:50 PM
- Apparently the biggest loser is Alexander County, IL, -36%. Now that is only 3000 people, but what happened there? Plant shut down? Flood?
One big hit was that a public housing complex in Cairo was falling apart, so it was shut down in 2017. About 200 families lost their homes.
I heard the whole town of Cairo was falling apart.
Lately the whole state of Illinois has been falling apart.
Houses in my town are selling like hotcakes (are hotcakes really a top-selling item?) and most are people escaping Illinois taxes.
Cairo has been on the decline since before the turn of the century. The turn of the 20th century, that is.
Quote from: bandit957 on August 18, 2021, 09:24:38 AM
Urban areas and especially college towns are damn lucky the census was conducted in April 2020, instead of being conducted right now.
Explain Jackson County, IL, home to Southern Illinois University. It went from over 60K to less than 53K. Same with McDonough County (Western Illinois U), going from 32.6 to 27.2K. DeKalb County (Nothern Illinois U) went from 105K to 100.4K. I guess it could be possible that many students left because of the previous governor's budget decisions.
Quote from: golden eagle on August 18, 2021, 06:22:39 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on August 18, 2021, 09:24:38 AM
Urban areas and especially college towns are damn lucky the census was conducted in April 2020, instead of being conducted right now.
Explain Jackson County, IL, home to Southern Illinois University. It went from over 60K to less than 53K. Same with McDonough County (Western Illinois U), going from 32.6 to 27.2K. DeKalb County (Nothern Illinois U) went from 105K to 100.4K. I guess it could be possible that many students left because of the previous governor's budget decisions.
I don't live in Illinois but I would leave Tennessee and move to Florida due to some of my governor's decisions, not relating to the budget though.
Quote from: bandit957 on August 18, 2021, 03:40:25 PM
Quote from: kphoger on August 18, 2021, 03:32:06 PM
Quote from: SP Cook on August 18, 2021, 03:20:50 PM
- Apparently the biggest loser is Alexander County, IL, -36%. Now that is only 3000 people, but what happened there? Plant shut down? Flood?
One big hit was that a public housing complex in Cairo was falling apart, so it was shut down in 2017. About 200 families lost their homes.
I heard the whole town of Cairo was falling apart.
Lately the whole state of Illinois has been falling apart.
I drove through Cairo back in 2015. It's in even worse shape than the last time I saw it in the 80s. So sad to see a town at the junction of two major rivers like it is.
Quote from: golden eagle on August 18, 2021, 06:29:37 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on August 18, 2021, 03:40:25 PM
Quote from: kphoger on August 18, 2021, 03:32:06 PM
Quote from: SP Cook on August 18, 2021, 03:20:50 PM
- Apparently the biggest loser is Alexander County, IL, -36%. Now that is only 3000 people, but what happened there? Plant shut down? Flood?
One big hit was that a public housing complex in Cairo was falling apart, so it was shut down in 2017. About 200 families lost their homes.
I heard the whole town of Cairo was falling apart.
Lately the whole state of Illinois has been falling apart.
I drove through Cairo back in 2015. It's in even worse shape than the last time I saw it in the 80s. So sad to see a town at the junction of two major rivers like it is.
On it's way to becoming a full on ghost town. It reminds me a lot of the present state of the mostly ruined Goldfield, NV (once the largest the community in the state and similar in size to Cairo in it's prime).
Quote from: golden eagle on August 18, 2021, 06:22:39 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on August 18, 2021, 09:24:38 AM
Urban areas and especially college towns are damn lucky the census was conducted in April 2020, instead of being conducted right now.
Explain Jackson County, IL, home to Southern Illinois University. It went from over 60K to less than 53K. Same with McDonough County (Western Illinois U), going from 32.6 to 27.2K. DeKalb County (Nothern Illinois U) went from 105K to 100.4K. I guess it could be possible that many students left because of the previous governor's budget decisions.
86% of Illinois counties lost population. Imagine what the loss in the counties you mentioned would have been if the census had been taken one year later.
Carbondale's mayor said six months ago: "Our situation is typical of rural America. Towns that used to be market towns are now drying up, disappearing. The possibilities of keeping young people there are difficult." Notably, coal mines aren't the huge employers they used to be.
Quote from: kphoger on August 18, 2021, 07:01:01 PM
86% of Illinois counties lost population.
How many of the remaining 14 are in Chicagoland? I'd think it has to be half or more.
I'm interested in the fact that the Chicago area seems to have grown slightly (and some counties, such as Grundy and Kendall, more substantially) and yet that wasn't enough to lead the state to any population growth. Is rural Illinois really that much worse off than rural areas of other states, or is it just a case of mid-size metros not growing like they are in other states?
Quote from: kphoger on August 18, 2021, 07:01:01 PM
Imagine what the loss in the counties you mentioned would have been if the census had been taken one year later.
I wouldn't assume that those populations shrunk a lot further between April 2020 and April 2021. Some students may have returned by April 2021, and this stuff is quirky to begin with.
Quote from: SP Cook on August 18, 2021, 03:20:50 PM
So I found the Census Bureau's map, by county, of population change. And I have some questions and some observations.
- The map shows a general small decline in most rural counties, but some rural counties are holding their own and even growing a bit. Much of northern New England, and a few counties in northern NY. Much of south eastern PA, like Lancaster County and around that.
Outside of the Albany area, northern New York had only two counties with any growth at all, and it was minimal. Jefferson County (Watertown) grew by 0.4%, and Warren County (north of Albany) grew by just 30 people (0.05%). Saratoga County saw decent growth, but it's mostly suburban.
Also, much of southeastern PA including Lancaster County is more suburban/exurban than rural. Lancaster County is right between Chester County (Philly suburbs) and Dauphin County (Harrisburg), and it even has its own MSA.
Quote from: SP Cook on August 18, 2021, 03:20:50 PM
Southeastern MO. This one really is baffling, as it has a climate and topography very similar to the rural parts of TN that are growing.
The areas of Tennessee that are growing are mostly in and around the cities (Nashville, Knoxville, Chattanooga, and to a lesser extent Memphis). Much of southeastern Missouri is in the Ozarks and it's lot more remote than those places. It doesn't have any major population centers to fuel population growth.
Ozarks are more SWMO than SEMO. SEMO is more like the Arkansas side of the Mississippi Valley–flat, low population, no real growth driver.
Quote from: Scott5114 on August 18, 2021, 09:57:07 PM
Ozarks are more SWMO than SEMO. SEMO is more like the Arkansas side of the Mississippi Valley–flat, low population, no real growth driver.
I'll admit I hesitated before mentioning the Ozarks, but I figured Poplar Bluff couldn't be called "Gateway to the Ozarks" for nothing :)
Memphis is growing very slowly if not almost stagnant. Nashville is booming, particularly Rutherford and Williamson counties. It's only been during my lifetime that metropolitan Nashville passed Memphis. Now Nashville has 2.1 million! Memphis has only 1.3 million by comparison, and 25% - 30% of that is actually in Mississippi, not Tennessee, and a very small portion (5% maybe?) in Arkansas. A little less than 1 million (I think 950k) live in Shelby county.
I am sure Nashville's economy is at least twice the size of Memphis's, and would not be shocked if Knoxville has as large an economy as Memphis even though it's smaller due to Sevier County's tourism industry.
Quote from: Daniel Fiddler on August 18, 2021, 10:04:27 PM
Memphis is growing very slowly if not almost stagnant. Nashville is booming, particularly Rutherford and Williamson counties. It's only been during my lifetime that metropolitan Nashville passed Memphis. Now Nashville has 2.1 million! Memphis has only 1.3 million by comparison, and 25% - 30% of that is actually in Mississippi, not Tennessee, and a very small portion (5% maybe?) in Arkansas. A little less than 1 million (I think 950k) live in Shelby county.
Shelby County is fairly stagnant, with just 0.2% growth in the 2010's. But Fayette County did see decent growth, with 9.3%.
It is kind of ironic that DeSoto County, MS is the fastest-growing county in the Memphis region with a 14.9% increase, and yet Mississippi as a whole lost population.
But then Mississippi is just a bit confusing in general. Hinds (Jackson) lost population, yet the suburban counties, Madison and Rankin, more than made up for it. Then you've got random cases like Lamar County, where a 15% increase doesn't make much sense. And then of course all of the counties along the Gulf Coast grew in population, so it seems strange to end up with a net loss in population. But I guess the consistent losses elsewhere in the state (including several counties with double digit losses) were just too much to overcome.
Quote from: webny99 on August 18, 2021, 10:24:20 PM
Quote from: Daniel Fiddler on August 18, 2021, 10:04:27 PM
Memphis is growing very slowly if not almost stagnant. Nashville is booming, particularly Rutherford and Williamson counties. It's only been during my lifetime that metropolitan Nashville passed Memphis. Now Nashville has 2.1 million! Memphis has only 1.3 million by comparison, and 25% - 30% of that is actually in Mississippi, not Tennessee, and a very small portion (5% maybe?) in Arkansas. A little less than 1 million (I think 950k) live in Shelby county.
Shelby County is fairly stagnant, with just 0.2% growth in the 2010's. But Fayette County did see decent growth, with 9.3%.
It is kind of ironic that DeSoto County, MS is the fastest-growing county in the Memphis region with a 14.9% increase, and yet Mississippi as a whole lost population.
But then Mississippi is just a bit confusing in general. Hinds (Jackson) lost population, yet the suburban counties, Madison and Rankin, more than made up for it. Then you've got random cases like Lamar County, where a 15% increase doesn't make much sense. And then of course all of the counties along the Gulf Coast grew in population, so it seems strange to end up with a net loss in population. But I guess the consistent losses elsewhere in the state (including several counties with double digit losses) were just too much to overcome.
Indeed. And I feel I-269 will further contribute to Desoto County's growth, much like I-840 did for Rutherford and Williamson.
Quote from: webny99 on August 18, 2021, 09:45:13 PM
Quote from: SP Cook on August 18, 2021, 03:20:50 PM
So I found the Census Bureau's map, by county, of population change. And I have some questions and some observations.
- The map shows a general small decline in most rural counties, but some rural counties are holding their own and even growing a bit. Much of northern New England, and a few counties in northern NY. Much of south eastern PA, like Lancaster County and around that.
Outside of the Albany area, northern New York had only two counties with any growth at all, and it was minimal. Jefferson County (Watertown) grew by 0.4%, and Warren County (north of Albany) grew by just 30 people (0.05%). Saratoga County saw decent growth, but it's mostly suburban.
Also, much of southeastern PA including Lancaster County is more suburban/exurban than rural. Lancaster County is right between Chester County (Philly suburbs) and Dauphin County (Harrisburg), and it even has its own MSA.
Quote from: SP Cook on August 18, 2021, 03:20:50 PM
Southeastern MO. This one really is baffling, as it has a climate and topography very similar to the rural parts of TN that are growing.
The areas of Tennessee that are growing are mostly in and around the cities (Nashville, Knoxville, Chattanooga, and to a lesser extent Memphis). Much of southeastern Missouri is in the Ozarks and it's lot more remote than those places. It doesn't have any major population centers to fuel population growth.
And both Warren and Jefferson Counties have metro areas large enough to have their own MPO (Glens Falls and Watertown, respectively).
On the subject of Mississippi, it's kind of interesting to see how a state's change in housing units tracks with the change in population (see here (https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/interactive/2020-population-and-housing-state-data.html)).
Mississippi must have one of the widest gaps, with a 0.2% decrease in population but 3.5% increase in housing units.
My home state of New York tracks a lot more closely, with 4.2% and 4.7% respectively.
And West Virginia somehow had a 3% decrease in housing units (tracking closely with the 3.2% decrease in population). I'm not sure exactly how the Census Bureau tracks/estimates housing units, but there must be a lot of abandoned/dilapidated homes in rural West Virginia that no longer qualify.
Quote from: webny99 on August 18, 2021, 10:48:41 PM
And West Virginia somehow had a 3% decrease in housing units (tracking closely with the 3.2% decrease in population).
Correct. While the stereotypical "coal camp" town is really a thing, this is just one form, and the minority form, of housing in SW WV. Much of WV, obviously, is unfit for farming or even building more than a couple of houses. Consequently much of the surface belongs to a handful of timber companies. People would buy a parcel from the timber company, scape it off flat or flat ish and put a house, or more commonly later on, a trailer or "double wide" on the property. Much of these types of places have just been abandoned and reclaimed by nature.
For one example, Logan County, which has 40% of the population it had in the 1950s, is defined as having an "acute housing shortage" by the FmHA.
Quote from: webny99 on August 18, 2021, 10:48:41 PM
On the subject of Mississippi, it's kind of interesting to see how a state's change in housing units tracks with the change in population (see here (https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/interactive/2020-population-and-housing-state-data.html)).
Mississippi must have one of the widest gaps, with a 0.2% decrease in population but 3.5% increase in housing units.
My home state of New York tracks a lot more closely, with 4.2% and 4.7% respectively.
And West Virginia somehow had a 3% decrease in housing units (tracking closely with the 3.2% decrease in population). I'm not sure exactly how the Census Bureau tracks/estimates housing units, but there must be a lot of abandoned/dilapidated homes in rural West Virginia that no longer qualify.
There is a pre-census operation called address canvassing. Each census block has a list of housing units from the previous census, and that list gets updated by having people go out into the field to update that list. An abandoned structure that has become unlivable would be removed from the list.
Quote from: webny99 on August 18, 2021, 09:17:13 PM
Quote from: kphoger on August 18, 2021, 07:01:01 PM
86% of Illinois counties lost population.
How many of the remaining 14 are in Chicagoland? I'd think it has to be half or more.
I'm interested in the fact that the Chicago area seems to have grown slightly (and some counties, such as Grundy and Kendall, more substantially) and yet that wasn't enough to lead the state to any population growth. Is rural Illinois really that much worse off than rural areas of other states, or is it just a case of mid-size metros not growing like they are in other states?
Including Kendall and Grundy counties, Chicagoland grew by about 149,000.
The entire rest of the state combined lost about 167,000.
Bloomington and Champaign grew, but Decatur and Peoria and Springfield declined.
Interestingly, a few southern counties did grow: Johnson (Vienna), Williamson (Marion), Effingham.
Here's an interesting visual:
(https://imgur.com/jtYEH8K.jpg)
(Just realized Scott5114 posted something similar in reply# 181. I actually like his better... but oh well... now we've got two versions :))
A quick look at Utah, the fastest growing state in the country.
Most of the growth is concentrated in the greater Wasatch Front region, but it's not the core urban areas. The fastest growing parts of Utah are exurban areas, especially in mountain valleys to the east of the main urban corridor. Wasatch County grew an incredible 50% over the last ten years, and Morgan County grew 32%. Tooele County to the west of Salt Lake saw similar rapid growth (28% increase). Utah County grew 26% - although that's one of the core urban counties, I would imagine the vast majority of its growth was in the exurban areas south of Provo and west of Lehi. The city of Eagle Mountain, for example, doubled its population from 20k to 40k.
The populated areas in the southwestern part of the state are also growing very quickly - Washington County (St George) grew 34% and Iron County (Cedar City) grew 23%. St George now has a very sizable metropolitan area containing almost 185,000 people. Might be time to start putting it as a control city. :-P
With the exception of Utah County (described above), the more historically urbanized parts of the Wasatch Front grew rapidly but at a more manageable pace - generally 10-20%.
Rural areas in general were more stagnant. Some areas did make gains, but six counties lost population. Some of that was in isolated farming areas of south-central Utah that haven't been able to capitalize on tourism, but the greatest losses occurred in the historically coal-dominated area of Eastern Utah. Emery County lost over 7% of its population.
I would not be surprised at all if Price shrinks enough to lose its micropolitan area status in the coming years. Perhaps by then someplace else like Richfield or Ephraim or Roosevelt will be big enough to qualify for that status and take its place.
Utah's median age is 3 years younger than any other US state (where most other states are less than a year apart): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_median_age
Quote from: kurumi on August 19, 2021, 02:09:16 PM
Utah's median age is 3 years younger than any other US state (where most other states are less than a year apart): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_median_age
I am surprised it isn't younger.
Quote from: webny99 on August 19, 2021, 11:23:26 AM
Here's an interesting visual:
(https://imgur.com/jtYEH8K.jpg)
(Just realized Scott5114 posted something similar in reply# 181. I actually like his better... but oh well... now we've got two versions :))
Seems the flight from or general decay of rural counties continues.
You might start seeing that trend reverse itself. The infrastructure bill included money for rural broadband. Companies are allowing work from home. You can get just about anything delivered so it's less inconvenient to live farther away from a Target or Wal-Mart. Urban and suburban property values have skyrocketed.
The bleeding might slow, but I doubt it'll stop.
Suburban areas, and exurban areas in particular, are among the fastest-growing areas in the country. People want to live away from the city, but near the conveniences that it offers.
In many parts of the country, distinguishing between suburban and exurban is increasingly difficult. In a lot of fast-growing areas, suburban neighborhoods are built right on the edge of the countryside.
BREAKING: 2020 county subdivision (town/city) populations appear to be available for all places with a population of 5,000 or more.
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045219
Just search for your town or city and the April 1, 2020 census population will be on the 4th line.
Unfortunately, my county has two towns with less than 5,000 people, so I can't quite complete my cross check and make sure it adds up correctly. But it's tracking very closely (751 of 759k with the two sub-5k towns remaining), so I would assume the data is official.
No one's mentioned Indiana yet so I'll chime in. As with elsewhere large swaths of rural Indiana are continuing to lose population. The most dominant growing area in the state continues to be the Indianapolis Metropolitan Area. I'll put in my thoughts below.
Indianapolis itself continues to grow rather well for being the core county. The city population is over 887,000 and Marion County's is 977,000. This means that if growth continues the city should push over 900,000 by the next census with Marion County reaching over a million residents.
Of course the more dramatic growth is outside Marion County. Hamilton County continues to explode with a population of 347,000+ with Hendricks County crossing into the top ten counties by population with over 174,000. Boone County, Hancock County and Johnson Counties all saw big growth as well. Among the suburbs both Carmel and Fishers are just at the cusp of 100,000. It's a shame that they won't "officially" cross that boundary for another decade even though the estimates and likely population may already be there. Noblesville is the next largest suburb at nearly 70,000 and Greenwood continues to be the largest southern suburb with a population of nearly 64,000. If they included the Center Grove part of Johnson County Greenwood could likely be the third Indy suburb near the 100,000 mark.,
For now that means there remain four Indiana cities with populations over 100,000. Indy of course is the largest and Fort Wayne is next at 263,000. Fort Wayne and Allen County have grown decently as the northeastern corner of the state as seen some decent growing in various counties. Evansville in the southwest part of the state continues to be the third largest city at 117,000 with South Bend at 103,000. South Bend will likely be passed up by Carmel and Fishers in the next decade, though Evansville may still be high enough to remain third largest even then as Carmel is getting landlocked and Fishers can only expand so much. The Hamilton County cities of Noblesville and Westfield still have plenty of room to grow as does Whitestown in Boone County.
Elsewhere in the state, the northwest saw Lake County grow a little bit to a population of 498,000, a bit higher than the last estimates which had it a 485,000 (according the the Census website mentioned on a previous post) I assume most of that growth is in the central and southern parts of the county. Porter County continues to explode as well. I'm watching how St. Joseph and Elkhart Counties in Michiana go as Elkhart County's been booming and St. Joseph has seen little growth.
Some of the other counties seeing growth are not too surprising. Tippecanoe County has continued to surprise me as it's in the top ten for all counties in the state. Lafayette and West Lafayette have been growing well. Monroe County's up, but more on that below. Jackson County (Seymour) saw growth, as did Daviess County (Washington and I-69,) Warrick County (Evansville's suburbs) and Clark and Floyd Counties (Louisville suburbs.)
Among the largest cities, Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, South Bend, Carmel, Fishers, Lafayette and Noblesville all grew in population.
Among the cities losing population: Evansville, Bloomington, Hammond, Muncie, Gary, Terre Haute and Anderson. Now one of these cities are not like the other. Bloomington
Bloomington, Indiana, which had a 2010 Census of 80,000 and a 2019 estimate at 85,000 had a population decline to 79,000 in the latest census. This is very likely a result of the pandemic and its effect on college students as mentioned further. Had the census been taken in February instead of April I'm sure Bloomington would have been seen as a "growing city" but now it must have that mark of having declined for the next ten years. Something which I'm sure makes the city worry the state will use to screw them over. Given Indiana, they probably will. I'm sure B-Town's population is probably closer to 83k-85k in reality. Monroe County's population also seems a little lower than what it should be as well but growth outside the Bloomington limits helped it out.
The other major university town in the state, West Lafayette, did grow quite well but they did annex a bit of land out toward the US 231 bypass in the past decade so that surely helped. Their actual population might be even higher than the 44,000 on the census (indeed the 2019 estimate had it at 50,000.) I have no idea how the Notre Dame CDP did population well but Muncie losing population is probably a mix of the pandemic and just plain decline from being in the rust belt that is East Central Indiana.
That's about it for now I guess.
Are they going to keep using counties in Connecticut, or are they going to start counting those other districts instead?
Quote from: Road Hog on August 17, 2021, 09:04:50 PM
I was surprised that Fayetteville (and not Springdale) was the city that jumped Fort Smith to become the second-largest in Arkansas. The conventional thought was that Fayetteville is land-locked by surrounding towns and won't be able to grow much more, and Springdale at least had space to develop.
Or maybe it's just as simple as Fayetteville had better response to the census.
Jonesboro will jump Fort Smith in the not-too-distant future.
Quote from: webny99 on August 18, 2021, 10:24:20 PM
Quote from: Daniel Fiddler on August 18, 2021, 10:04:27 PM
Memphis is growing very slowly if not almost stagnant. Nashville is booming, particularly Rutherford and Williamson counties. It's only been during my lifetime that metropolitan Nashville passed Memphis. Now Nashville has 2.1 million! Memphis has only 1.3 million by comparison, and 25% - 30% of that is actually in Mississippi, not Tennessee, and a very small portion (5% maybe?) in Arkansas. A little less than 1 million (I think 950k) live in Shelby county.
Shelby County is fairly stagnant, with just 0.2% growth in the 2010's. But Fayette County did see decent growth, with 9.3%.
It is kind of ironic that DeSoto County, MS is the fastest-growing county in the Memphis region with a 14.9% increase, and yet Mississippi as a whole lost population.
But then Mississippi is just a bit confusing in general. Hinds (Jackson) lost population, yet the suburban counties, Madison and Rankin, more than made up for it. Then you've got random cases like Lamar County, where a 15% increase doesn't make much sense. And then of course all of the counties along the Gulf Coast grew in population, so it seems strange to end up with a net loss in population. But I guess the consistent losses elsewhere in the state (including several counties with double digit losses) were just too much to overcome.
Lamar County is fueled by being next to Hattiesburg.
Quote from: golden eagle on August 19, 2021, 09:35:18 PM
Quote from: webny99 on August 18, 2021, 10:24:20 PM
But then Mississippi is just a bit confusing in general. ... you've got random cases like Lamar County, where a 15% increase doesn't make much sense. ...
Lamar County is fueled by being next to Hattiesburg.
Yes, but Hattiesburg only has about 50,000 people. I wouldn't have thought would be enough to fuel much growth on its own. Maybe it's just a case of the growth being concentrated in the west.
Quote from: webny99 on August 19, 2021, 10:56:35 PM
Quote from: golden eagle on August 19, 2021, 09:35:18 PM
Quote from: webny99 on August 18, 2021, 10:24:20 PM
But then Mississippi is just a bit confusing in general. ... you've got random cases like Lamar County, where a 15% increase doesn't make much sense. ...
Lamar County is fueled by being next to Hattiesburg.
Yes, but Hattiesburg only has about 50,000 people. I wouldn't have thought would be enough to fuel much growth on its own. Maybe it's just a case of the growth being concentrated in the west.
Much of the growth in recent decades has been west of I-59 in Lamar County. Hattiesburg's city limits extend along US 98 to the Turtle Creek Mall area. I'm not really sure what drove the westward growth into Lamar. Perhaps, lack of open space in the Forrest County portion. I must say that Hattiesburg seems larger than the 48,730 that the census shows. It's a college town, a military town and a certified retirement community, along with a bustling medical community for a city its size.
Quote from: webny99 on August 19, 2021, 06:48:59 PM
BREAKING: 2020 county subdivision (town/city) populations appear to be available for all places with a population of 5,000 or more.
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045219
Just search for your town or city and the April 1, 2020 census population will be on the 4th line.
Unfortunately, my county has two towns with less than 5,000 people, so I can't quite complete my cross check and make sure it adds up correctly. But it's tracking very closely (751 of 759k with the two sub-5k towns remaining), so I would assume the data is official.
Just wanted to follow up with this and note that nydatabases.com by democratandchronicle.com has a resource where you can get
any 2020 census population, even for places outside New York, and even for places with less than 5,000 residents:
https://data.democratandchronicle.com/census/
I've completed cross-checks for most of the counties in New York state, and they've all added up correctly so far - there have been a few odd results, but most of those have been populous enough to check the census.gov link above and they've all matched up, so if they do indeed prove to be incorrect, I'm sure they'll be found and ironed out in time.
In any case, it's pretty exciting to now have all the 2020 census data, at least for all practical purposes!
Wow, according to that, both my home county of Rawlins and hometown of Atwood (very, very rural northwestern Kansas) increased slightly from 2010 to 2020. That surprised me.
Quote from: kphoger on September 01, 2021, 11:07:14 AM
Wow, according to that, both my home county of Rawlins and hometown of Atwood (very, very rural northwestern Kansas) increased slightly from 2010 to 2020. That surprised me.
Slightly is right - an increase of just 42 residents!
I must say I do find it strange and almost amusing to see county populations under 5,000. New York's least-populous county is
Hamilton (https://www.google.com/maps/place/Hamilton+County,+NY/@43.6200471,-75.0922047,8.75z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x89df17cb6a970eab:0x2d236705dcc7c72f!8m2!3d43.4764406!4d-74.4056612!5m1!1e1), which is extremely rural and remote by my standards, and it has a population of 5,107. (Granted, it's also considerably larger than your typical Kansas county).
The 3 x 6 bloc of 18 counties in northwestern Kansas, meanwhile, have populations that would comprise a fairly typical
single county with 18 towns here in New York. The total population of those 18 counties is 94,514. That's very comparable to Steuben County, NY, pop. 93,584, a county that's large in land area but by no means urban. It's home, in fact, to the very same Corning, NY we've been discussing in the Control Cities thread.
I suppose Corning would be to Steuben County what Hays is to northwestern Kansas - except that northwestern Kansas' population is even
more concentrated around Hays than Steuben's is around Corning. Pretty mind-blowing, when you think about it!
What I found most surprising was the increase in non-white residents in Atwood. In fact, the white population slightly declined, so the increase is all due to minorities.
When I lived there in the 1990s, the only minorities I knew of were either (1) Wade Kelly, a couple of years ahead of me in school and the only black person in town, or (2) foreign exchange students.
It really makes me wonder what the draw is. Atwood isn't generally the kind of town people move to from out of the area unless they're buying a farm, taking a teaching position, or taking a nursing position. The only reason my family moved there is because my dad's church in Illinois (now the Cherry Hill Conference Center) was going into bankruptcy and he sought a call in the Kansas district in order to be closer to my grandparents in Kansas City (ironic). Historically, there have been centers for people with developmental disabilities that acted as a draw from outside, but I don't know how many of those centers are even left.
Quote from: kphoger on September 01, 2021, 11:50:57 AM
What I found most surprising was the increase in non-white residents in Atwood. In fact, the white population slightly declined, so the increase is all due to minorities.
When I lived there in the 1990s, the only minorities I knew of were either (1) Wade Kelly, a couple of years ahead of me in school and the only black person in town, or (2) foreign exchange students.
It really makes me wonder what the draw is. Atwood isn't generally the kind of town people move to from out of the area unless they're buying a farm, taking a teaching position, or taking a nursing position. The only reason my family moved there is because my dad's church in Illinois (now the Cherry Hill Conference Center) was going into bankruptcy and he sought a call in the Kansas district in order to be closer to my grandparents in Kansas City (ironic). Historically, there have been centers for people with developmental disabilities that acted as a draw from outside, but I don't know how many of those centers are even left.
I gotta assume Latino population working on farms? Or is it all different backgrounds?
Chris
Quote from: jayhawkco on September 01, 2021, 11:55:40 AM
Quote from: kphoger on September 01, 2021, 11:50:57 AM
What I found most surprising was the increase in non-white residents in Atwood. In fact, the white population slightly declined, so the increase is all due to minorities.
When I lived there in the 1990s, the only minorities I knew of were either (1) Wade Kelly, a couple of years ahead of me in school and the only black person in town, or (2) foreign exchange students.
It really makes me wonder what the draw is. Atwood isn't generally the kind of town people move to from out of the area unless they're buying a farm, taking a teaching position, or taking a nursing position. The only reason my family moved there is because my dad's church in Illinois (now the Cherry Hill Conference Center) was going into bankruptcy and he sought a call in the Kansas district in order to be closer to my grandparents in Kansas City (ironic). Historically, there have been centers for people with developmental disabilities that acted as a draw from outside, but I don't know how many of those centers are even left.
I gotta assume Latino population working on farms? Or is it all different backgrounds?
I don't assume that. When I was growing up, the only exposure to Latinos that my peers had ever had was roofers.
The black population increased from 2 to 13 (quite significant, and apparently half of them are minors).
The Asian population increased from 1 to 4 (interesting, and all of them are adults).
The "other" population increased from 12 to 47 (gee, thanks a lot, folks).
But yes, the "Hispanic or Latino" population did increase from 35 to 122. That's also quite significant, and still a mystery to me.
Quote from: kphoger on September 01, 2021, 12:01:37 PM
The "other" population increased from 12 to 47 (gee, thanks a lot, folks).
I guess I don't really understand under what circumstances someone would correctly answer "other" instead of "two or more".
Quote from: kphoger on September 01, 2021, 12:01:37 PM
I don't assume that. When I was growing up, the only exposure to Latinos that my peers had ever had was roofers.
Sure, but there's a reason that there's a large Latino population in places like Garden City and Dodge City that traditional demographics wouldn't have you expect, hence my guess.
Chris
Quote from: jayhawkco on September 01, 2021, 12:09:03 PM
Quote from: kphoger on September 01, 2021, 12:01:37 PM
I don't assume that. When I was growing up, the only exposure to Latinos that my peers had ever had was roofers.
Sure, but there's a reason that there's a large Latino population in places like Garden City and Dodge City that traditional demographics wouldn't have you expect, hence my guess.
Garden and Dodge have high minority numbers because of the big processing plants there, not because of hired hands working on farms. Same with Guymon (OK) and other places in the area.
Quote from: kphoger on September 01, 2021, 12:11:45 PM
Quote from: jayhawkco on September 01, 2021, 12:09:03 PM
Quote from: kphoger on September 01, 2021, 12:01:37 PM
I don't assume that. When I was growing up, the only exposure to Latinos that my peers had ever had was roofers.
Sure, but there's a reason that there's a large Latino population in places like Garden City and Dodge City that traditional demographics wouldn't have you expect, hence my guess.
Garden and Dodge have high minority numbers because of the big processing plants there, not because of hired hands working on farms. Same with Guymon (OK) and other places in the area.
True. I probably just lumped them into one bucket of "Big Agriculture".
Chris
Quote from: webny99 on September 01, 2021, 12:06:54 PM
Quote from: kphoger on September 01, 2021, 12:01:37 PM
The "other" population increased from 12 to 47 (gee, thanks a lot, folks).
I guess I don't really understand under what circumstances someone would correctly answer "other" instead of "two or more".
Indonesia?
Quote from: webny99 on September 01, 2021, 12:06:54 PM
I guess I don't really understand under what circumstances someone would correctly answer "other" instead of "two or more".
What would you put if you were an Arab? "Asian"?
What about Hispanic people who don't consider themselves to be "white"?
What about people of Quechua descent? Are they "American Indian"?
Or if you're Habesha, the main ethic group of Ethiopia. They don't call themselves "black" but they do call the southern ethic groups like Oromo, et al "black".
Chris
Quote from: webny99 on September 01, 2021, 10:27:40 AM
Quote from: webny99 on August 19, 2021, 06:48:59 PM
BREAKING: 2020 county subdivision (town/city) populations appear to be available for all places with a population of 5,000 or more.
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045219
Just search for your town or city and the April 1, 2020 census population will be on the 4th line.
Unfortunately, my county has two towns with less than 5,000 people, so I can't quite complete my cross check and make sure it adds up correctly. But it's tracking very closely (751 of 759k with the two sub-5k towns remaining), so I would assume the data is official.
Just wanted to follow up with this and note that nydatabases.com by democratandchronicle.com has a resource where you can get any 2020 census population, even for places outside New York, and even for places with less than 5,000 residents:
https://data.democratandchronicle.com/census/
I've completed cross-checks for most of the counties in New York state, and they've all added up correctly so far - there have been a few odd results, but most of those have been populous enough to check the census.gov link above and they've all matched up, so if they do indeed prove to be incorrect, I'm sure they'll be found and ironed out in time.
In any case, it's pretty exciting to now have all the 2020 census data, at least for all practical purposes!
Thanks for this! I see that they have CSA figures available, which I hadn't found on the Census Bureau site as yet. Here are the CSAs with over 4 million:
| 1 | New York-Newark | 23,583,649 |
| 2 | Los Angeles-Long Beach | 18,644,680 |
| 3 | Chicago-Naperville | 9,986,960 |
| 4 | Washington-Baltimore-Arlington | 9,973,383 |
| 5 | San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland | 9,714,023 |
| 6 | Boston-Worcester-Providence | 8,466,186 |
| 7 | Dallas-Fort Worth | 8,121,108 |
| 8 | Philadelphia-Reading-Camden | 7,379,700 |
| 9 | Houston-The Woodlands | 7,312,270 |
| 10 | Atlanta-Athens-Clarke County-Sandy Springs | 6,930,423 |
| 11 | Miami-Port St. Lucie-Fort Lauderdale | 6,868,652 |
| 12 | Detroit-Ann Arbor | 5,424,742 |
| 13 | Seattle-Tacoma | 4,953,421 |
| 14 | Phoenix-Mesa | 4,899,104 |
| 15 | Orlando-Lakeland-Deltona | 4,222,422 |
| 16 | Minneapolis-St. Paul | 4,078,788 |
My county gained 16% overall (to 828K), lost a bit of its white population, and saw 60%+ gains for most non-white groups.
Pardon me for getting a bit political: I think America could easily handle 1 billion people, in theory, but the problem is, assuming this tripling of our population is due to immigration, most of this growth would occur in our already overcrowded, overpriced metro areas, not in the vast empty places that could easily handle a crush of people.
Quote from: kernals12 on September 01, 2021, 10:13:08 PM
Pardon me for getting a bit political: I think America could easily handle 1 billion people, in theory, but the problem is, assuming this tripling of our population is due to immigration, most of this growth would occur in our already overcrowded, overpriced metro areas, not in the vast empty places that could easily handle a crush of people.
Three times as many people.
So much for the Bread Basket of the World. :D
Quote from: Rothman on September 01, 2021, 10:16:58 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on September 01, 2021, 10:13:08 PM
Pardon me for getting a bit political: I think America could easily handle 1 billion people, in theory, but the problem is, assuming this tripling of our population is due to immigration, most of this growth would occur in our already overcrowded, overpriced metro areas, not in the vast empty places that could easily handle a crush of people.
Three times as many people.
So much for the Bread Basket of the World. :D
Tripling our population would give us a population density comparable to France
Quote from: kernals12 on September 01, 2021, 10:19:30 PM
Quote from: Rothman on September 01, 2021, 10:16:58 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on September 01, 2021, 10:13:08 PM
Pardon me for getting a bit political: I think America could easily handle 1 billion people, in theory, but the problem is, assuming this tripling of our population is due to immigration, most of this growth would occur in our already overcrowded, overpriced metro areas, not in the vast empty places that could easily handle a crush of people.
Three times as many people.
So much for the Bread Basket of the World. :D
Tripling our population would give us a population density comparable to France
Are you including Alaska in your land area?
All that growth would need to happen near jobs, which happen to be in cities because of the natural efficiency of cities. Not to mention living near urban amenities, which can't quite be replicated by digital replacements (as we've seen through the past year of trying).
Quote from: Bruce on September 01, 2021, 10:37:18 PM
All that growth would need to happen near jobs, which happen to be in cities because of the natural efficiency of cities. Not to mention living near urban amenities, which can't quite be replicated by digital replacements (as we've seen through the past year of trying).
Jobs follow people. Phoenix went from a backwater to a thriving metropolis not because of the jobs it had, but because its warm climate lured huge numbers of snowbirds and so industry followed with jobs.
I don't know if I would call the economy of retirement places like Arizona and Florida "industry" . But I really don't know a better term.
In a retirement region, people move there, and then spend wealth earned elsewhere at an earlier time. And, yes, services develop to supply those people, and then it, no irony intended, snowballs and the region grows.
That is nice, but it presupposes the orignators, which are people with cash to spend and no need of a job. It does not really translate w/o that spark. You can have the most ecotopic place on earth, and nobody who needs work is going to move there and wait for jobs to develop.
Quote from: Scott5114 on August 17, 2021, 09:22:25 PM
Population density may also be increasing faster in Fayetteville (which would make sense, as that's where the university is).
There have been several apartment developments over the last 10 years, and there are still subdivisions with track homes going up along Wedington Dr., and still lots of houses going up along the roads/streets that intersect it. Contrary to popular belief, there's still a fair amount of pastureland on the west side that will become subdivisions over the next decade, along Wedington Dr. and still some on Mt. Comfort Rd. And lots of houses have gone up along AR-16 just until it drops down to the first Illinois River crossing for those that wanted seclusion, but still fairly convenient access, however that's outside of the current city limits. Anything developed late last year and all of this year won't be counted until the next census, though. In a nutshell, the boom continues even faster than what was counted in the 2020 census as the stimulus just threw gas on the development fire over the last year. Springdale has a better business climate (job growth), but Fayetteville tends to have the more desirable residential environment (somewhat of a bedroom community despite its size), unless you have a problem with paying fines for cutting down trees on your own property. That's why we're just outside the city limits ourselves.
Quote from: kernals12 on September 01, 2021, 10:56:20 PM
Jobs follow people.
This.
Yes, people tend to not move where there aren't jobs. But, as population increases
for whatever reason, jobs are created.
This, by the way, is why immigrants don't actually "steal our jobs". As far as the jobs economy is concerned, there's no difference between (1) an illegal immigrant from Guatemala taking a job, (2) a born-and-raised US citizen moving from two states over and taking the same job, and (3) a child getting it as his or her first job out of high school.
Related to this, here are the MSA changes in the last 10 years:
AL:
- Alexander City is deleted, and Talladega expands into Coosa county. The former is then recreated, initially only from Tallapoosa, later Coosa switches back.
- Atmore micro is created from Escambia county.
- Walker county splits from Birmingham to form Jasper micro.
- Daphne is upgraded.
- Eufaula is deleted, then recreated (see also GA).
- Fort Payne is deleted, then recreated.
- Dale county splits from Enterprise to form Ozark micro.
- Tuscaloosa retires from Greene county and expands into Pickens instead. It then expands again into Greene.
- Tuskegee is deleted.
- Valley is merged into La Grange.
AK: no changes
AZ:
- Safford retires from Greenlee county.
- Sierra Vista is upgraded.
AR:
- Fort Smith retires from Franklin county, then expands into it again (see also OK).
- Hope is deleted, then recreated.
- Malvern micro is created from Hot Spring county.
- Texarkana expands into Little River county.
CA:
- Bishop is deleted.
CO:
- Craig micro is created from Moffat county.
- Edwards retires from Lake county.
- Glenwood Springs micro is created from Garfield and Pitkin counties.
- Steamboat Springs micto is created from Routt county.
CT:
- Willimantic is merged into Worcester.
DE:
- Seaford is merged into Salisbury. DE becomes the 3rd state to be entirely covered by metro areas (see also MD).
FL:
- Crestview expands into Walton county.
- Gainesville expands into Levy county.
- Homosassa Springs is upgraded.
- Panama City expands into Gulf county.
- Sebring is upgraded
- The Villages is upgraded (it should be called "The Cities" now :sombrero:).
GA:
- Atlanta expands into Morgan county.
- Augusta expands into Lincoln county.
- Columbis expands into Stewart county.
- Douglas retires from Atkinson county, then expands again into it.
- Eufaula is deleted, then recreated (see also AL).
- Fitzgerald retires from Irwin county.
- Fort Valley is merged into Warner Robins. In addition the latter expands into Pulaski county.
- Jefferson micro is created from Jackson county.
HI:
- Kahului is upgraded
ID:
- Hailey micro is created from Blaine, Camas and Lincoln counties. It then retires from Lincoln.
- Pocatello retires from Power county, then expands again into it.
- Sandpoint micro is create from Bonner county.
- Twin Falls is upgraded
IL:
- Bloomington expands into De Witt county, then retires from it.
- Marion is merged into Carbondale. The combined area is upgraded.
- Fort Madison expands into Hancock county.
- Galesburg retires from Warren county.
- Harrisburg is deleted.
- Mount Vernon retires from Hamilton county.
IN:
- Bloomington retires from Greene county.
- Cincinnati retires from Franklin county and expands into Union instead. It then expands into Franklin again.
- Evansville retires from Gibson county (see also KY).
- Kokomo retires from Tipton county.
- Scottsburg is merged into Louisville. It is then split again (see also KY).
IA:
- Boone is merged into Ames.
- Newton is merged into Des Moines.
- Fairfield micro is created from Jefferson county.
- Muscatine retires from Louisa county.
- Ottumwa expands into Davis county, then retires from it.
- Pella is deleted, then recreated.
KS:
- Emporia retires from Chase county, then expands again into it.
- Garden City expands into Kearny county.
- Junction City is merged into Manhattan.
- Franklin county splits from Kansas City to form Ottawa micro.
- Wichita expands into Kingsman county.
KY:
- Bowling Green expands into Allen county.
- Central City is deleted, then recreated.
- Evansville retires from Webster county (see also IN).
- Huntington expands into Carter county (see also WV).
- Corbin is merged into London. The latter then expands into Knox county, then into Clay.
- Nelson county splits from Louisville to form Bardsville micro (see also IN).
- Maysville retires from Lewis county.
- Richmond retires from Rockcastle county and expands into Estill instead.
- Union City retires from Fulton county.
LA:
- Pierre Part is deleted. Later, Baton Rouge expands into Assumption parish.
- Hammond is upgraded.
- Jennings is deleted, then recreated.
- Abbeville, Crowley and New Iberia are merged into Lafayette.
- Minden is merged into Shreveport, then split again.
- Ruston retires from Jackson parish.
- Tallulah is deleted.
ME:
- Rockland is deleted.
MD:
- Ocean Pines is merged into Salisbury (see also DE).
MA:
- Vineyard Haven micro is created from Dukes county (Martha's Vineyard). This leaves Nantucket as the only county not in a metro or micro area.
- Franklin county splits from Springfield to form Greenfield Town micro, then merges back.
MI:
- Many changes in Grand Rapids: Holland metro merges into it (Allegan micro is then renamed Holland), Ionia county splits to form Ionia micro only to merge back later, expands into Montcalm and retires from Newaygo and then Barry.
- Hillsdale micro is created from Hillsdale county.
- Kalamazoo retires from Van Buren county.
- Ludington micro is created from Mason county.
- Midland is upgraded.
- Owosso is merged into Lansing.
MN:
- Duluth expands into Lake county.
- Fairmont is deleted, then recreated.
- Grand Rapids micro is created from Itasca county.
- Minneapolis expands into LeSueur and Mille Lacs counties. It also expands into Sibley, only to retire later.
- Rochester expands into Fillmore county.
MS:
- Pascagoula merges into Gulfport. The combined area retires from George and Stone counties, then expands again to the latter.
- Hattiesburg expands into Covington county.
- Yazoo City is merged into Jackson. The latter then expands into Holmes county.
- Memphis expands into Benton county.
- Vicksburg expands into Claiborne county, then retires from it.
- West Point is deleted, then recreated.
MO:
- Columbia retires from Howard county, then expands again into it and also into Cooper.
- Fayetteville retires from McDonald county.
- St. Louis retires from Washington county.
MT:
- Billings expands into Golden Valley county, then retires and expands into Stillwater instead.
- Havre is deleted.
NE:
- Grand Island expands into Hamilton county, then retires from it.
- Hastings retires from Clay county.
- Scottsbluff expands into Sioux county.
NV:
- Winnemucca micro is created from Humboldt county.
NH:
- Lebanon is merged into Claremont.
NJ: No changes.
NM:
- Las Vegas expands into Harding county.
- Ruidoso is deleted, then recreated.
NY:
- Poughkeepsie is merged into New York, then splits back (they couldn't decide if this area is Upstate or not :bigass:).
- Rochester expands into Yates county.
- Watertown is upgraded.
NC:
- Lincolnton, Salisbury and Statesville are merged into Charlotte. The latter retires from Anson county, then expands back into it (see also SC).
- Dunn is merged into Fayetteville.
- Oxford micro is created from Granville county. It is then merged into Durham.
- Greenville retires from Greene county.
- Kill Devil Hills expands into Tyrrell county, then retires from it.
- Marion micro is created from McDowell county.
- Brunswick county switches from Wilmington to Myrtle Beach.
- New Bern is upgraded.
- Thomasville is merged into Winston Salem.
- Virginia Beach expands into Gates county (see also VA).
ND:
- Bismarck expands into Oliver and Sioux counties, then retires from the latter.
- Dickinson retires from Billings county, then expands back into it.
OH:
- Columbus expands into Hocking and Perry counties.
- Dayton retires from Preble county.
- Jackson micro is created from Jackson county.
- Washington county splits from Parkersburg to form Marietta micro (see also WV).
- Ottawa county splits from Toledo to form Port Clinton micro.
- Sandusky is downgraded.
OK:
- Enid is upgraded.
- Fort Smith retires from Le Flore county (see also AR).
- Lawton expands into Cotton county.
OR:
- Albany is upgraded.
- Grants Pass is upgraded.
- Newport micro is created from Lincoln county.
PA:
- Bloomsburg is upgraded.
- Chambersburg is upgraded.
- Gettysburg is upgraded.
RI: No changes.
SC:
- Chester and Lancaster are merged into Charlotte (see also NC).
- Dillon is deleted.
- Anderson is merged into Greenville.
- Greenwood expands into Abbeville county, then retires.
- Union is merged into Spartanburg, then splits back.
- Walterboro is deleted.
SD:
- Huron expands into Jerauld county.
- Pierre expands into Sully county, then retires from it.
- Rapid City expands into Custer county, then retires from it.
- Watertown retires from Hamlin county, then expands again into it.
TN:
- Brownsville is deleted, then recreated.
- Clarksville retires from Stewart county, then expands again into it.
- Humboldt is deleted.
- Jackson expands into Crockett county.
- Harriman and LaFollette are merged into Knoxville. The latter expands into Morgan county. In addition Grainger switches from Morristown, then switches back.
- Columbia is merged into Nashville.
TX:
- Alice expands into Duval county.
- Amarillo expands into Oldham county.
- Beaumont expands into Newton county, then retires from it.
- Big Spring expands into Glasscock county, then retires from it.
- Granbury is merged into Dallas. It then splits and is recreated from Hood county only, retiring from Somewell altogether. Dallas also expands into Delta county.
- El Paso expands into Hudspeth county.
- Houston retires from San Jacinto county.
- Lubbock expands into Lynn county.
- Marble Falls is deleted.
- Marshall is merged into Longview.
- Midland expands into Martin county.
- Pampa retires from Roberts county, then expands again into it.
- Pecos expands into Loving county :bigass:.
- Aransas county splits from Corpus Christi to form Rockport micro.
- San Angelo expands into Sterling county.
- Waco expands into Falls county.
- Zapata is created from Zapata county.
UT:
- Summit county splits from Salt Lake City to form Summit Park micro. It is then merged into Heber.
- Brigham City is merged into Ogden.
VT:
- Berlin retires from Essex county.
VA:
- Blacksburg retires from Floyd county.
- Bluefield expands into Bland county.
- Blue Spring Gap micro is created from Dickenson and Wise counties and Norton city. It then retires from Dickenson.
- Charlottesville expands into Buckingham county, then retires from it.
- Danville is downgraded.
- Richmond retires from Cumberland county.
- Staunton is upgraded.
- Virginia Beach retires from Surry county, then expands into Southampton (see also NC).
WA:
- Othello micro is created from Adams county.
- Spokane expands into Pend Oreille and Stevens counties. It then retires from the former.
WV:
- Mount Oak is merged into Beckley. The combined area is upgraded.
- Lincoln and Putnam counties switch from Charleston to Huntington. Lincoln later switches back (see also KY for Huntington). Charleston also expands into Jackson county.
- Elkins is created from Randolph county.
- Hagerstown retires from Morgan county, then expands again into it.
- Mount Gay (originally Logan) micro is created from Logan county.
- Parkersburg retires from Pleasants county.
WI:
- Monroe is merged into Madison.
- Shawano micro is created from Menominee and Shawano counties.
- Merrill is merged into Wausau.
WY:
- Gilette expands into Crook and Weston counties.
Why is Wiliamantic in the Worcester MSA? It's closer to Hartford and there is nothing between it and Worcester.
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on September 09, 2021, 10:25:14 AM
Why is Wiliamantic in the Worcester MSA? It's closer to Hartford and there is nothing between it and Worcester.
There's two ways to interpret that:
(1) It's very close to Worcester -- "There is nothing between Minneapolis and St. Paul"
(2) It's very rural between the two cities -- "There is nothing between San Antonio and El Paso"
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on September 09, 2021, 10:25:14 AM
Why is Willimantic in the Worcester MSA? It's closer to Hartford and there is nothing between it and Worcester.
At least ConnDOT can put the I-384 extension on the shelf permanently since Hartford's out of the picture and work on the CT/MA 89 freeway to properly connect the two W's.
Quote from: webny99 on September 09, 2021, 10:39:19 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on September 09, 2021, 10:25:14 AM
Why is Wiliamantic in the Worcester MSA? It's closer to Hartford and there is nothing between it and Worcester.
There's two ways to interpret that:
(1) It's very close to Worcester -- "There is nothing between Minneapolis and St. Paul"
(2) It's very rural between the two cities -- "There is nothing between San Antonio and El Paso"
That area in Northeast Connecticut and Central Massachusetts is very desolate at least by New England standards. And yes I meant the second one.
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on September 09, 2021, 11:30:41 AM
Quote from: webny99 on September 09, 2021, 10:39:19 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on September 09, 2021, 10:25:14 AM
Why is Wiliamantic in the Worcester MSA? It's closer to Hartford and there is nothing between it and Worcester.
There's two ways to interpret that:
(1) It's very close to Worcester -- "There is nothing between Minneapolis and St. Paul"
(2) It's very rural between the two cities -- "There is nothing between San Antonio and El Paso"
That area in Northeast Connecticut and Central Massachusetts is very desolate at least by New England standards. And yes I meant the second one.
Because Census went by counties and Willimantic is just in the corner of Windham.
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on September 09, 2021, 10:25:14 AM
Why is Wiliamantic in the Worcester MSA? It's closer to Hartford and there is nothing between it and Worcester.
That part of Connecticut is just southern Worcester County anyways.
Quote from: CNGL-Leudimin on September 09, 2021, 07:14:18 AM
Hope is deleted, then recreated.
Some events write their own jokes.
Quote from: SectorZ on September 09, 2021, 01:40:38 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on September 09, 2021, 10:25:14 AM
Why is Wiliamantic in the Worcester MSA? It's closer to Hartford and there is nothing between it and Worcester.
That part of Connecticut is just southern Worcester County anyways.
It is still like the Census didn't want to leave a hole in southern New England that wasn't covered by an MSA.
Including Oxford is one thing, but Pomfret?
I dunno. I know it feels like an extension of Worcester County, but it also feels distinct from Worcester itself.
Quote from: Rothman on September 09, 2021, 03:18:07 PM
Quote from: SectorZ on September 09, 2021, 01:40:38 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on September 09, 2021, 10:25:14 AM
Why is Wiliamantic in the Worcester MSA? It's closer to Hartford and there is nothing between it and Worcester.
That part of Connecticut is just southern Worcester County anyways.
It is still like the Census didn't want to leave a hole in southern New England that wasn't covered by an MSA.
Including Oxford is one thing, but Pomfret?
I dunno. I know it feels like an extension of Worcester County, but it also feels distinct from Worcester itself.
Census Bureau doesn't define MSAs. Office of Management and Budget does that.
Quote from: cabiness42 on September 09, 2021, 03:28:21 PM
Quote from: Rothman on September 09, 2021, 03:18:07 PM
Quote from: SectorZ on September 09, 2021, 01:40:38 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on September 09, 2021, 10:25:14 AM
Why is Wiliamantic in the Worcester MSA? It's closer to Hartford and there is nothing between it and Worcester.
That part of Connecticut is just southern Worcester County anyways.
It is still like the Census didn't want to leave a hole in southern New England that wasn't covered by an MSA.
Including Oxford is one thing, but Pomfret?
I dunno. I know it feels like an extension of Worcester County, but it also feels distinct from Worcester itself.
Census Bureau doesn't define MSAs. Office of Management and Budget does that.
Census still accepts them as acceptable definitions for analysis.
Greenville's population struggled growing as did Pitt County. I'm guessing it's cause of the loss of businesses and jobs.
Greenville
1990 - 44,972
2000 - 60,476
2010 - 84,554
2020 - 87,521
Pitt County
1990 - 107,924
2000 - 133,798
2010 - 168,148
2020 - 170,243
Quote from: tolbs17 on October 07, 2021, 07:10:15 PM
I'm guessing it's cause of the loss of businesses and jobs.
Have you forgotten about COVID-19?
Quote from: 1 on October 07, 2021, 07:15:00 PM
Quote from: tolbs17 on October 07, 2021, 07:10:15 PM
I'm guessing it's cause of the loss of businesses and jobs.
Have you forgotten about COVID-19?
Could be one of the factors, but other cities have grown steadily though! Like New Jersey for instance.
Quote from: tolbs17 on October 07, 2021, 07:19:43 PM
Quote from: 1 on October 07, 2021, 07:15:00 PM
Quote from: tolbs17 on October 07, 2021, 07:10:15 PM
I'm guessing it's cause of the loss of businesses and jobs.
Have you forgotten about COVID-19?
Could be one of the factors, but other cities have grown steadily though! Like New Jersey for instance.
The city of New Jersey . . .
Update, 2 days ago, they released a vintage 2021 estimates population.
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/2021-population-estimates.html
North Carolina's population for the year 2021 is 10,551,162
New Jersey's is 9,267,130
California's is 39,237,836, down from 39,499,738 last year.
Quote from: tolbs17 on December 23, 2021, 12:22:07 PM
Update, 2 days ago, they released a vintage 2021 estimates population.
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/2021-population-estimates.html
North Carolina's population for the year 2021 is 10,551,162
New Jersey's is 9,267,130
California's is 39,237,836, down from 39,499,738 last year.
They already released a population estimate for 2021 before the year was even over?
Quote from: golden eagle on January 30, 2022, 04:31:59 PM
Quote from: tolbs17 on December 23, 2021, 12:22:07 PM
Update, 2 days ago, they released a vintage 2021 estimates population.
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/2021-population-estimates.html
North Carolina's population for the year 2021 is 10,551,162
New Jersey's is 9,267,130
California's is 39,237,836, down from 39,499,738 last year.
They already released a population estimate for 2021 before the year was even over?
The census itself is supposed to represent April 1 on the given year, not the end of the year, so I don't see the problem.
Quote from: 1 on January 30, 2022, 04:34:38 PM
Quote from: golden eagle on January 30, 2022, 04:31:59 PM
Quote from: tolbs17 on December 23, 2021, 12:22:07 PM
Update, 2 days ago, they released a vintage 2021 estimates population.
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/2021-population-estimates.html
North Carolina's population for the year 2021 is 10,551,162
New Jersey's is 9,267,130
California's is 39,237,836, down from 39,499,738 last year.
They already released a population estimate for 2021 before the year was even over?
The census itself is supposed to represent April 1 on the given year, not the end of the year, so I don't see the problem.
In the past, they normally released that info the next year. Maybe they've moved the schedule up.
The annual population estimates (not the census itself) represent July 1 of that year and generally come out near the end of that year
An interactive map (https://mtgis-portal.geo.census.gov/arcgis/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=2566121a73de463995ed2b2fd7ff6eb7) with 2020 census data is now available!
Other Census news:
Census records are embargoed for 72 years, which means that in every year ending in 2, we get a new census released to the public.
On April 1 (not a joke), the 1950 Census was released. If you were born between April 1940 and April 1950, you can find your very first census record here: https://1950census.archives.gov/search/
Over time, private companies will index the records more thoroughly then they are here, so name and address searches will be easier, but if you know where you're looking and can read the 1950 maps, you can find what you're looking for.
I found both of my parents, who were born in the 1940s.
I found my father, born in the 30s, his father and mother and two sisters, and I think I recognize the house in Google Streetview even though it's been at about 50 years since I was there.
I'm not finding my mom or her parents, and I'm not sure why they are not showing up.
My parents were born in the 1960s, and I've yet to find my grandparents (none of whom were even married yet), but I did find my paternal-paternal great-grandparents; the husband was born in the 1890s and the wife in the 1900s. I never met them. Only met my dad's maternal grandmother, who I haven't found in the census yet but was born in the 1910s.