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The Census has released its population estimates for 2020

Started by kernals12, December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PM

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kernals12

To be clear, this is not the results of the 2020 census, it's an estimate of population based on a mix of surveys and administrative data, so there's a margin of error. The page is here. The relevant information is the first excel spreadsheet listed. To see how the population of each state grew, insert the formula =n5/m5 into cell o5, then drag it down for all the states. Then you'll want to highlight columns B through L, right click and press hide so you can easily see state names

The most notable takeaway is that our population grew by just .35%, the slowest since year to year estimates became available in 1900, and probably the slowest ever. A whopping 16 states saw their population decline: Alaska, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan,  Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and West Virginia.

New York saw the biggest loss at .6%. California's decline perhaps isn't surprising, but it's still shocking. Also, the data only goes up to July 1, so it misses much of the impact of the pandemic.

I have mixed feelings about this. On the one hand, it means less traffic and cheaper housing, but there's something exciting about population growth as new homes, businesses, schools and roads are built, an excitement that we will no longer have.

But hey, the last baby boom was completely unexpected, so maybe another one is just around the corner.


webny99

Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PM
California's decline perhaps isn't surprising, but it's still shocking.

If it's shocking, then surely it's also surprising, right?


I don't know that I'd put too much faith in these estimates. I'd rather wait for the official results.

kernals12

Quote from: webny99 on December 28, 2020, 02:28:16 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PM
California's decline perhaps isn't surprising, but it's still shocking.

If it's shocking, then surely it's also surprising, right?


I don't know that I'd put too much faith in these estimates. I'd rather wait for the official results.

It's shocking because for so long California has been visualized as a state people move to, not from. It's unsurprising because in recent years between traffic and insane housing costs, there's a lot more pushing people out than in.

Max Rockatansky

Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 02:52:38 PM
Quote from: webny99 on December 28, 2020, 02:28:16 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PM
California's decline perhaps isn't surprising, but it's still shocking.

If it's shocking, then surely it's also surprising, right?


I don't know that I'd put too much faith in these estimates. I'd rather wait for the official results.

It's shocking because for so long California has been visualized as a state people move to, not from. It's unsurprising because in recent years between traffic and insane housing costs, there's a lot more pushing people out than in.

All the while others arrive to exploit the niche left by the void. 

Seriously though, a lot of that population shift hasn't gone very far.  Phoenix, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, and Boise are all seeing a large influx of urban California residents.  That's not a new phenomenon but probably has been accelerated unnaturally this year. 

kernals12

Every state I've ever lived in is shrinking. I feel guilty.

Max Rockatansky

Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 03:12:08 PM
Every state I've ever lived in is shrinking. I feel guilty.

Heh, I'm from Michigan and that's the undisputed grand champion of declining U.S. States. 

kalvado

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on December 28, 2020, 03:28:33 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 03:12:08 PM
Every state I've ever lived in is shrinking. I feel guilty.

Heh, I'm from Michigan and that's the undisputed grand champion of declining U.S. States.
Michigan is in black on a 10-year scale, 2010 to 2020. WV, IL, CT, VT, NY and MS have estimated decline both 2019-2020 and over the 10 year period.
NY, for one, would probably be even worse if upstate and NYC are considered separately - with NYC getting a strong boost from immigration

Max Rockatansky

Quote from: kalvado on December 28, 2020, 04:29:16 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on December 28, 2020, 03:28:33 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 03:12:08 PM
Every state I've ever lived in is shrinking. I feel guilty.

Heh, I'm from Michigan and that's the undisputed grand champion of declining U.S. States.
Michigan is in black on a 10-year scale, 2010 to 2020. WV, IL, CT, VT, NY and MS have estimated decline both 2019-2020 and over the 10 year period.
NY, for one, would probably be even worse if upstate and NYC are considered separately - with NYC getting a strong boost from immigration

Yes, MI as of late has begun to stabilize from the heights of it's economic decline.  What I find fascinating is that the state is starting to recover and its something that can be observed every time I visit this past decade.  Even downtown Detroit has begun to become more and more vibrant every time I see it.  It was weird seeing shops and a street car line on Woodward last year, it felt alien to anything I had seen in living memory. 

hbelkins

Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PMAlaska, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan,  Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and West Virginia.

There's a common thread connecting those states in bold. High taxes are a dead giveaway. There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.

Pennsylvania and Ohio probably have multiple reasons for their decline. Vermont as well. As for West Virginia, the decline of the coal industry has to be a major factor, but I'd think the eastern panhandle would be growing as people escape the DC area and Loudon County.


Government would be tolerable if not for politicians and bureaucrats.

kernals12

Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PMAlaska, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan,  Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and West Virginia.

There's a common thread connecting those states in bold. High taxes are a dead giveaway. There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.

Pennsylvania and Ohio probably have multiple reasons for their decline. Vermont as well. As for West Virginia, the decline of the coal industry has to be a major factor, but I'd think the eastern panhandle would be growing as people escape the DC area and Loudon County.

Massachusetts is not an exceptionally high tax state, it's just above average. And Alaska has literally the lowest taxes of any state (before counting those dividend checks)

hotdogPi

Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PMAlaska, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan,  Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and West Virginia.

There's a common thread connecting those states in bold. High taxes are a dead giveaway. There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.

You bolded 7 of 16 states. Less than half.
Clinched, minus I-93 (I'm missing a few miles and my file is incorrect)

Traveled, plus US 13, 44, and 50, and several state routes

I will be in Burlington VT for the eclipse.

SP Cook

Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM

As for West Virginia, the decline of the coal industry has to be a major factor, but I'd think the eastern panhandle would be growing as people escape the DC area and Loudon County.

The eastern panhandle growth is not nearly enough to outweigh the effects of the war on coal.  It is only 3 counties, and then you run into mountains that is the limit of that growth. 

The governor really wants to eliminate income tax on retirement, which would probably cause a lot of swamp lifers to look at the area as close enough to home.


SectorZ

Quote from: 1 on December 29, 2020, 01:41:30 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PMAlaska, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan,  Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and West Virginia.

There's a common thread connecting those states in bold. High taxes are a dead giveaway. There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.

You bolded 7 of 16 states. Less than half.

Those 7 states also have 1/3 of the US population.

SectorZ

Quote from: kernals12 on December 29, 2020, 12:33:27 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PMAlaska, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan,  Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and West Virginia.

There's a common thread connecting those states in bold. High taxes are a dead giveaway. There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.

Pennsylvania and Ohio probably have multiple reasons for their decline. Vermont as well. As for West Virginia, the decline of the coal industry has to be a major factor, but I'd think the eastern panhandle would be growing as people escape the DC area and Loudon County.

Massachusetts is not an exceptionally high tax state, it's just above average. And Alaska has literally the lowest taxes of any state (before counting those dividend checks)

Says the person just out of college that doesn't pay property taxes, income taxes, etc...

Max Rockatansky

Quote from: SectorZ on December 29, 2020, 02:58:49 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 29, 2020, 12:33:27 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PMAlaska, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan,  Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and West Virginia.

There's a common thread connecting those states in bold. High taxes are a dead giveaway. There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.

Pennsylvania and Ohio probably have multiple reasons for their decline. Vermont as well. As for West Virginia, the decline of the coal industry has to be a major factor, but I'd think the eastern panhandle would be growing as people escape the DC area and Loudon County.

Massachusetts is not an exceptionally high tax state, it's just above average. And Alaska has literally the lowest taxes of any state (before counting those dividend checks)

Says the person just out of college that doesn't pay property taxes, income taxes, etc...

Wouldn't want that getting in the way of a good narrative...

kernals12

Quote from: SectorZ on December 29, 2020, 02:58:49 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 29, 2020, 12:33:27 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PMAlaska, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan,  Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and West Virginia.

There's a common thread connecting those states in bold. High taxes are a dead giveaway. There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.

Pennsylvania and Ohio probably have multiple reasons for their decline. Vermont as well. As for West Virginia, the decline of the coal industry has to be a major factor, but I'd think the eastern panhandle would be growing as people escape the DC area and Loudon County.

Massachusetts is not an exceptionally high tax state, it's just above average. And Alaska has literally the lowest taxes of any state (before counting those dividend checks)

Says the person just out of college that doesn't pay property taxes, income taxes, etc...
Quote from: SectorZ on December 29, 2020, 02:58:49 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 29, 2020, 12:33:27 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PMAlaska, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan,  Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and West Virginia.

There's a common thread connecting those states in bold. High taxes are a dead giveaway. There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.

Pennsylvania and Ohio probably have multiple reasons for their decline. Vermont as well. As for West Virginia, the decline of the coal industry has to be a major factor, but I'd think the eastern panhandle would be growing as people escape the DC area and Loudon County.

Massachusetts is not an exceptionally high tax state, it's just above average. And Alaska has literally the lowest taxes of any state (before counting those dividend checks)

Says the person just out of college that doesn't pay property taxes, income taxes, etc...

According to this:
https://wallethub.com/edu/states-with-highest-lowest-tax-burden/20494

Massachusetts is #22 for tax burden, behind Kentucky and Kansas. In New England, only New Hampshire has a lower tax burden.

Bruce

CA shrinking is to be expected, since the housing stock isn't being adequately expanded and thus prices are going up higher than most can afford.

I wouldn't have 100% faith in the actual Census results released next year due to how botched the census was. Due to the pandemic delay (with non-response followup happening from August to October) and the shortened timeline (by a few weeks during the last big push), there will be a lot of undercounted communities, especially in rural and remote areas. Quite a few people were also lost in the shuffle due to them moving after the April 1 count date but before they were able to respond via phone/web form/mail/in-person.

As one of the boots on the ground for the Census, I can say that a lot of the non-respondents (old and young alike) just didn't know what the Census is. Quite disappointing, but to be expected of our failed education system.

kernals12

Quote from: SP Cook on December 29, 2020, 02:11:46 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM

As for West Virginia, the decline of the coal industry has to be a major factor, but I'd think the eastern panhandle would be growing as people escape the DC area and Loudon County.

The eastern panhandle growth is not nearly enough to outweigh the effects of the war on coal.  It is only 3 counties, and then you run into mountains that is the limit of that growth. 

The governor really wants to eliminate income tax on retirement, which would probably cause a lot of swamp lifers to look at the area as close enough to home.


Connecticut is doing that already. I wonder what impact that might have.

ilpt4u

^^^^^^^ Illinois already does not tax retirement income, and people still leave the state to retire in Arizona, Florida, wherever

Take that nice IL Taxpayer-funded Pension (for Public Employees) and make sure that money isn't spent in Illinois

jeffandnicole

Quote from: Bruce on December 29, 2020, 04:15:44 PM
CA shrinking is to be expected, since the housing stock isn't being adequately expanded and thus prices are going up higher than most can afford.

I wouldn't have 100% faith in the actual Census results released next year due to how botched the census was. Due to the pandemic delay (with non-response followup happening from August to October) and the shortened timeline (by a few weeks during the last big push), there will be a lot of undercounted communities, especially in rural and remote areas. Quite a few people were also lost in the shuffle due to them moving after the April 1 count date but before they were able to respond via phone/web form/mail/in-person.

As one of the boots on the ground for the Census, I can say that a lot of the non-respondents (old and young alike) just didn't know what the Census is. Quite disappointing, but to be expected of our failed education system.

These people also demand their privacy. (Ignore the Ring doorbell camera they share with the world, and their cell phone noting their exact placement on Earth at any given time.)

Bruce

Yeah, the irony of trusting a megacorp with a 300-page "privacy" agreement that you likely didn't bother to read but not a vetted government employee who faces huge fines and/or prison time for disclosing any personally identifiable information for the next 72 years...

NWI_Irish96

Quote from: jeffandnicole on December 29, 2020, 05:07:38 PM
Quote from: Bruce on December 29, 2020, 04:15:44 PM
CA shrinking is to be expected, since the housing stock isn't being adequately expanded and thus prices are going up higher than most can afford.

I wouldn't have 100% faith in the actual Census results released next year due to how botched the census was. Due to the pandemic delay (with non-response followup happening from August to October) and the shortened timeline (by a few weeks during the last big push), there will be a lot of undercounted communities, especially in rural and remote areas. Quite a few people were also lost in the shuffle due to them moving after the April 1 count date but before they were able to respond via phone/web form/mail/in-person.

As one of the boots on the ground for the Census, I can say that a lot of the non-respondents (old and young alike) just didn't know what the Census is. Quite disappointing, but to be expected of our failed education system.

These people also demand their privacy. (Ignore the Ring doorbell camera they share with the world, and their cell phone noting their exact placement on Earth at any given time.)

I'm a 21-year Bureau employee and the hypocrisy of the libertarian-type never ceases to amaze me. I don't think people realize how difficult things would be if everybody refused to do any censuses or surveys.
Indiana: counties 100%, highways 100%
Illinois: counties 100%, highways 61%
Michigan: counties 100%, highways 56%
Wisconsin: counties 86%, highways 23%

Brandon

Quote from: ilpt4u on December 29, 2020, 04:57:35 PM
^^^^^^^ Illinois already does not tax retirement income, and people still leave the state to retire in Arizona, Florida, wherever

Take that nice IL Taxpayer-funded Pension (for Public Employees) and make sure that money isn't spent in Illinois

And it's not due to the weather.  More people from Illinois settle in other, adjoining Midwestern states than to the South and Southwest.
"If you think this has a happy ending, you haven't been paying attention." - Ramsay Bolton

"Symbolic of his struggle against reality." - Reg

kkt

Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.

Florida allows one to retain one's residence after a bankruptcy.

NWI_Irish96

Quote from: Brandon on December 29, 2020, 08:34:14 PM
Quote from: ilpt4u on December 29, 2020, 04:57:35 PM
^^^^^^^ Illinois already does not tax retirement income, and people still leave the state to retire in Arizona, Florida, wherever

Take that nice IL Taxpayer-funded Pension (for Public Employees) and make sure that money isn't spent in Illinois

And it's not due to the weather.  More people from Illinois settle in other, adjoining Midwestern states than to the South and Southwest.

Yeah, my realtor texts me at least once a month letting me know he's looking for homes in my area for buyers from Cook County.
Indiana: counties 100%, highways 100%
Illinois: counties 100%, highways 61%
Michigan: counties 100%, highways 56%
Wisconsin: counties 86%, highways 23%



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